Bangkok December 2020

BUSINESS SUPPLEMENT
FOREIGN CURRENCY UPDATE
The U.S. Dollar has remained
weak and shows no
signs of a strong rebound any
time soon. The DXY Dollar index,
the main index that measures
the U.S. Dollar’s value
against a basket of major
currencies, fell from 93.68 to
92.80 in sideways trade. U.S.
elections did little to move the
Dollar and stimulus measures
that may affect the greenback
have likely been put off for a
while. Against the Thai Baht,
the move has been more
pronounced. The USDTHB
rate fell from 31.25 to 30.16,
a one year low as the Thai
Baht strengthened in a dramatic
fashion. The rate now
threatens to break the key
30.00 handle and fall below
the 29.97 level, which marked
a multi-year low last December.
All this comes at a time
when Thailand badly needs a
weaker Baht to boost exports.
The British Pound has
been buffeted around by
coronavirus lockdown news
as well as the ongoing Brexit
talks, but has in fact risen
against the U.S. Dollar hitting
1.3282 from 1.2895, before
settling back to 1.3181.
There are a number of resistance
levels to watch for at
higher levels and although the
case for the Dollar to weaken
further is in the frame,
the Pound also has a case
to weaken too. Against the
Thai Baht, the Pound fell quite
sharply from 41.09 to 39.76 as
the Baht gained ground.
The Japanese Yen
strengthened against the
U.S. Dollar and moved from
105.66 to 103.24 but gave
all the gains back to return
to 105.06. Japanese stock
markets hit a 30-year high in
step with large gains on Wall
Street and so the Yen has lost
some of its safe haven appeal.
Against the Thai Baht,
the Yen fell from 0.2936 to
0.2848, a fall of nearly three
per cent.
The Russian Ruble had
a choppy month weakening
from 76.99 to 80.54 to
the U.S. Dollar before regaining
ground to settle at
77.29. News of a vaccine
in Russia was eclipsed
by similar news from the
U.S. and did little to provide
any sustained recovery.
The Ruble weakened
against the Thai Baht,
breaking through the
critical 0.40 level, moving
from 0.4026 down to
0.3907.
The Euro, which is still
consolidating at the top end
of a mid-year rally, moved
from 1.1795 to 1.1833
against the U.S. Dollar in
continued choppy trade.
ECB Stimulus remains on
the cards but it is starting to
look like the central bank is
pushing on a string. Against
the Thai Baht the Euro fell
from 37.11 to 35.64, a steep
drop of nearly four per cent.
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