Climate change in the UKOTs an overview of the ... - JNCC - Defra
Climate change in the UKOTs an overview of the ... - JNCC - Defra
Climate change in the UKOTs an overview of the ... - JNCC - Defra
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<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories<br />
An Overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Science, Policy <strong>an</strong>d You
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories<br />
An Overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Science, Policy <strong>an</strong>d You<br />
Nicole Brown<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
Adaptation,<br />
Mitigation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Ecosystem Services<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas<br />
Territories<br />
© Jo<strong>in</strong>t Nature Conservation Committee 2008
Acknowledgements:<br />
This booklet is produced by <strong>the</strong> Jo<strong>in</strong>t Nature Conservation Committee with fund<strong>in</strong>g from <strong>the</strong><br />
Overseas Territories Environment Programme (OTEP). It is published with assist<strong>an</strong>ce from<br />
<strong>the</strong> Commonwealth Foundation. Th<strong>an</strong>k you to everyone who contributed <strong>in</strong> different ways<br />
toward <strong>the</strong> publication.<br />
Lead author: Nicole A. Brown<br />
CANARI team: Sarah McIntosh, Leslie Wall<strong>in</strong>g, Owen Day, Leigh Morton, Alex McCaffery<br />
Editorial/Steer<strong>in</strong>g Committee:<br />
Tara Pelembe (<strong>JNCC</strong>)<br />
Di<strong>an</strong>a Mortimer (<strong>JNCC</strong>)<br />
Deborah Procter (<strong>JNCC</strong>)<br />
Karen Dickenson (<strong>JNCC</strong>)<br />
G<strong>in</strong>a Eb<strong>an</strong>ks-Petrie (Director, Department <strong>of</strong> Environment Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds)<br />
Jack Ward (Director, Department <strong>of</strong> Conservation Services, Bermuda)<br />
Sus<strong>an</strong>na Musick (Director, Department <strong>of</strong> Conservation, Ascension Isl<strong>an</strong>d)<br />
Ela<strong>in</strong>e Kendall (<strong>Defra</strong>)<br />
Rowena Hard<strong>in</strong>g (Commonwealth Foundation)<br />
Je<strong>an</strong>-Phillipe Palasi (IUCN)<br />
Sarah S<strong>an</strong>ders (RSPB)<br />
Contributors:<br />
Timothy Aust<strong>in</strong> (Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government), Tom Boden (CDIAC), Rob Bowm<strong>an</strong> (Foreign<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Commonwealth Office), Dr Barbara Carby (Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government), Darren<br />
Christie (Government <strong>of</strong> South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds), Rhon A. Connor<br />
(Government <strong>of</strong> Anguilla), A<strong>the</strong>na D<strong>in</strong>ar (British Antarctic Survey), Cor<strong>in</strong>da Essex (St. Helena<br />
Government), Steven Freem<strong>an</strong> (AM-Sciences), James Glass (Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha Government),<br />
Lisa Greene (Bermuda Aquarium, Museum <strong>an</strong>d Zoo), Mike Halpert (NOAA), Karim V. D.<br />
Hodge (Government <strong>of</strong> Anguilla), Kev<strong>in</strong> Hughes (British Antarctic Survey), Andy Holbrook<br />
(Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government), Lisa-Ann Hurlston (Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government), Gordon<br />
Liddle (University <strong>of</strong> Dundee), Jeremy Madeiros (Bermuda Department <strong>of</strong> Conservation<br />
Services), Farah Mukhida (Anguilla National Trust), Gr<strong>an</strong>t Munro (Falkl<strong>an</strong>ds Conservation),<br />
Helen Otley (Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government), Louise Quarrell (Impetus Consult<strong>in</strong>g), Pr<strong>of</strong>essor<br />
Charles Sheppard (University <strong>of</strong> Warwick), V<strong>in</strong>ce Thompson (St. Helena National Trust),<br />
Mel<strong>in</strong>da Tignor (IPCC).<br />
Cover Photographs:<br />
Rockhopper pengu<strong>in</strong>s – Falkl<strong>an</strong>ds Conservation<br />
Storm <strong>in</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds – Department <strong>of</strong> Environment, Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Fisherm<strong>an</strong>’s pirogue – Steve Freem<strong>an</strong>, AM-Sciences<br />
Reef – Charles Sheppard<br />
Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds beach – Department <strong>of</strong> Environment, Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government<br />
Fund<strong>in</strong>g:<br />
Funded by Overseas Territories Environment Programme.<br />
Citation:<br />
This document should be cited as Brown, N. 2008. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas<br />
Territories: An Overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Science, Policy <strong>an</strong>d You. Peterborough,UK: Jo<strong>in</strong>t Nature<br />
Conservation Committee<br />
ISBN-13:978 1 86107 609 0
Foreword<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is without doubt <strong>the</strong> most press<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world’s<br />
environmental issues, if only because o<strong>the</strong>r serious issues such<br />
as biodiversity loss, shortage <strong>of</strong> fresh water <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly<br />
problematic food security are all l<strong>in</strong>ked with, or a consequence<br />
<strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Large l<strong>an</strong>d areas may have sufficient<br />
buffer<strong>in</strong>g space to be able to m<strong>an</strong>age <strong>the</strong> fallout from climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, but isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>of</strong>ten do not, hav<strong>in</strong>g f<strong>in</strong>ite <strong>an</strong>d limited<br />
resources. Ecosystem services, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> ability for<br />
ecosystems to help mitigate aga<strong>in</strong>st <strong>an</strong>d adapt to climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, are present everywhere, however, <strong>an</strong>d isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>of</strong>ten<br />
have well adapted ecosystems <strong>in</strong> this way. Underst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>n conserv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m well, must be <strong>an</strong><br />
Dr Peter Bridgewater<br />
imperative for <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is seen as critical to <strong>the</strong> long term health <strong>of</strong><br />
ecosystems – yet it is also critical to <strong>the</strong> health <strong>of</strong> people, simply by virtue <strong>of</strong> ecosystem<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s. We c<strong>an</strong> no longer assume that we are not connected with nature; our future on<br />
<strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>et is <strong>in</strong>extricably entw<strong>in</strong>ed with that <strong>of</strong> nature. Thus this me<strong>an</strong>s that for <strong>the</strong> overseas<br />
territories <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK, as with small isl<strong>an</strong>ds generally, <strong>the</strong>re are very special threats for very<br />
special systems.<br />
We know that climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not easily forecastable, <strong>an</strong>d that exist<strong>in</strong>g models are not<br />
necessarily <strong>in</strong> synchrony. But we also know for certa<strong>in</strong> that we have to face up to<br />
<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty. And m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g for uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty is <strong>the</strong> most challeng<strong>in</strong>g issues for<br />
<strong>the</strong> territories. This booklet attempts to expla<strong>in</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> 'easy-to-read' way for<br />
decision makers <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> wider community <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Overseas Territories<br />
(<strong>UKOTs</strong>), so that <strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> get a good grasp <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> basic key concepts. It also attempts to<br />
outl<strong>in</strong>e what <strong>the</strong> present <strong>an</strong>d future impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> will be specifically for <strong>the</strong>
<strong>UKOTs</strong>, <strong>an</strong>d outl<strong>in</strong>es options for adaptation <strong>an</strong>d mitigation. Among o<strong>the</strong>r materials, <strong>the</strong>re<br />
are m<strong>an</strong>y recipes for susta<strong>in</strong>ability <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> guide.<br />
The biodiversity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> is import<strong>an</strong>t at a global scale, largely because <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
restricted species, <strong>the</strong>ir genetic diversity <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> attend<strong>an</strong>t variation <strong>in</strong> l<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d seascapes<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> territories. And as isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>the</strong>y all sit <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world’s oce<strong>an</strong>s – oce<strong>an</strong> biodiversity,<br />
whe<strong>the</strong>r from coastal systems like m<strong>an</strong>groves <strong>an</strong>d coral reefs, to deep water ecosystems,<br />
are all known key spots for vulnerability to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> also <strong>in</strong>teracts with o<strong>the</strong>r environmental pressures, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />
habitat fragmentation, pollution from fertilizers <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>vasive species. This comb<strong>in</strong>ation may<br />
well result <strong>in</strong> novel species assemblages, some <strong>of</strong> which will be unstable, but o<strong>the</strong>rs <strong>of</strong><br />
which will <strong>of</strong>fer huge potential for m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>of</strong> l<strong>an</strong>dscape elements. Look<strong>in</strong>g out for<br />
<strong>the</strong>se opportunities are new challenges for natural resource m<strong>an</strong>agers <strong>of</strong> our overseas<br />
territories, <strong>an</strong>d will not be easy choices to make.<br />
And while conservation is critical, let us not forget <strong>the</strong> role rehabilitation <strong>an</strong>d restoration<br />
c<strong>an</strong> play – regenerat<strong>in</strong>g forgotten forests, m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g coastal systems back to health <strong>an</strong>d<br />
productivity must be part <strong>of</strong> our future solutions. Yet look<strong>in</strong>g for opportunities to enh<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
<strong>an</strong>d improve ecosystem resilience <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> face <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> are what <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
must do to ensure <strong>the</strong>ir survivability <strong>an</strong>d prosperity. This guide is a small contribution to<br />
mak<strong>in</strong>g that happen; to m<strong>in</strong>imise risk <strong>an</strong>d maximise benefit for people <strong>an</strong>d nature on <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>.<br />
Dr Peter Bridgewater<br />
Chair, Jo<strong>in</strong>t Nature Conservation Committee
Contents<br />
Abbreviations <strong>an</strong>d Acronyms 6<br />
Glossary 7<br />
Executive Summary 10<br />
1. Why <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge Matters for UK Overseas Territories 14<br />
1.1 A press<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d complex issue 14<br />
1.2 UK Overseas Territories have much to lose 17<br />
1.3 The time to act is now 18<br />
2. Unpack<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge 30<br />
2.1 What is climate? 30<br />
2.2 What <strong>in</strong>fluences climate? 30<br />
2.3 The science beh<strong>in</strong>d global climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> 32<br />
2.4 How do we know that climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is occurr<strong>in</strong>g? 36<br />
3 <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>in</strong> UK Overseas Territories: Present <strong>an</strong>d Future Impacts 41<br />
3.1 Overall impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> 43<br />
3.2 Regional trends <strong>an</strong>d national impacts 47<br />
3.2.1 Antarctic <strong>an</strong>d sub-Antarctic 47<br />
3.2.2 Bermuda 49<br />
3.2.3 The Caribbe<strong>an</strong> 50<br />
3.2.4 British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory 53<br />
3.2.5 Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> 54<br />
3.2.6 South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic 57<br />
3.2.7 South Pacific 58<br />
4 What c<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories do about climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>? 60<br />
4.1 Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g adaptation 62<br />
4.2 Mitigation 67<br />
4.3 Policy responses <strong>an</strong>d options 68<br />
4.3.1 Incentives 68<br />
4.3.2 Institutions 68<br />
4.3.3 Instruments 69<br />
4.3.4 Information 71<br />
4.4 How <strong>in</strong>dividuals <strong>an</strong>d bus<strong>in</strong>esses c<strong>an</strong> make a difference 71<br />
4.4.1 Reduc<strong>in</strong>g personal vulnerability 71<br />
4.4.2 Reduc<strong>in</strong>g energy use 72<br />
4.4.3 Practic<strong>in</strong>g good environmental habits 72<br />
4.4.4 Improv<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>ess practices 73<br />
4.4.5 Advocat<strong>in</strong>g for implementation <strong>of</strong> national<br />
adaptation pl<strong>an</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d susta<strong>in</strong>able development policies 74<br />
5. The Way Forward 75<br />
5.1 What does this me<strong>an</strong> for <strong>UKOTs</strong>? 75<br />
References 77
Abbreviations <strong>an</strong>d Acronyms<br />
ACC Antarctic Circulation Current<br />
BIOT British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory<br />
CFCs Chlor<strong>of</strong>luorocarbons<br />
DFID Department for International Development (UK)<br />
ECLAC Economic Commission for Lat<strong>in</strong> America <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong><br />
ENSO El Niño – Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oscillation<br />
GDP Gross Domestic Product<br />
IPCC Intergovernmental P<strong>an</strong>el on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
LDCs Least Developed Countries<br />
MACC Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g Adaptation to <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
NAPA National Adaptation Pl<strong>an</strong>s <strong>of</strong> Action<br />
PRECIS Provid<strong>in</strong>g Regional <strong>Climate</strong>s for Impact Studies<br />
SBAs Sovereign Base Areas<br />
UKOT United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Overseas Territory<br />
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
6
Glossary<br />
Adaptation<br />
Anthropogenic<br />
Biome<br />
Biodiversity<br />
Carbon dioxide<br />
saturation po<strong>in</strong>t<br />
Carbon s<strong>in</strong>k<br />
<strong>Climate</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> zone<br />
Coral bleach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Critically end<strong>an</strong>gered<br />
species<br />
Ecosystem<br />
In <strong>the</strong> context <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, adaptation is <strong>the</strong> adjustment <strong>in</strong><br />
natural or hum<strong>an</strong> systems <strong>in</strong> response to actual or expected climatic<br />
stimuli or <strong>the</strong>ir effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial<br />
opportunities.<br />
Caused by hum<strong>an</strong>s or hum<strong>an</strong> activities; usually used <strong>in</strong> reference to<br />
environmental degradation.<br />
A regional ecosystem characterised by dist<strong>in</strong>ct types <strong>of</strong> vegetation,<br />
<strong>an</strong>imals <strong>an</strong>d microbes that have developed under specific soil <strong>an</strong>d<br />
climatic conditions.<br />
The variety <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>t <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imal life found <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> ecosystem (see<br />
below) <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> variation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir genetic makeup. Biodiversity is a<br />
measure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> health <strong>of</strong> <strong>an</strong> ecosystem, with healthy ecosystems<br />
hav<strong>in</strong>g greater variety <strong>an</strong>d variation <strong>in</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>t <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imal life th<strong>an</strong><br />
unhealthy ones.<br />
The po<strong>in</strong>t at which oce<strong>an</strong>s are no longer able to effectively absorb<br />
carbon dioxide <strong>an</strong>d act as a counterbal<strong>an</strong>ce to greenhouse gas<br />
emissions.<br />
A reservoir that c<strong>an</strong> absorb or "sequester" carbon dioxide from <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere. Forests are <strong>the</strong> most common form <strong>of</strong> s<strong>in</strong>k, as well as<br />
soils, peat, permafrost, oce<strong>an</strong> water <strong>an</strong>d carbonate deposits <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
deep oce<strong>an</strong>.<br />
The average, or typical, wea<strong>the</strong>r conditions <strong>of</strong> a given area observed<br />
over a long period <strong>of</strong> time, usually 30 years or more.<br />
Any signific<strong>an</strong>t, long-term modification <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> climate <strong>of</strong> a zone or<br />
region.<br />
An area with a prevail<strong>in</strong>g climate that dist<strong>in</strong>guishes it from o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
areas by parameters such as temperature, ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>an</strong>d even pl<strong>an</strong>t<br />
species.<br />
Loss <strong>of</strong> colour <strong>of</strong> corals due to loss <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> symbiotic algae that<br />
provide <strong>the</strong>ir nutrients <strong>an</strong>d colouration. Bleach<strong>in</strong>g occurs <strong>in</strong> response<br />
to physiological shock as a result <strong>of</strong> abrupt <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> temperature,<br />
sal<strong>in</strong>ity, <strong>an</strong>d turbidity.<br />
A pl<strong>an</strong>t or <strong>an</strong>imal is critically end<strong>an</strong>gered when it is considered to be<br />
fac<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong> extremely high risk <strong>of</strong> ext<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild.<br />
A community <strong>of</strong> liv<strong>in</strong>g (pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals) <strong>an</strong>d non-liv<strong>in</strong>g th<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
(climate, l<strong>an</strong>dscape) which <strong>in</strong>teract toge<strong>the</strong>r <strong>an</strong>d affect each o<strong>the</strong>r.<br />
7
Glossary cont’d<br />
El Niño/El Niño –<br />
Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oscillation<br />
End<strong>an</strong>gered species<br />
Endemic/endemism<br />
Ext<strong>in</strong>ct (<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild)<br />
Fossil fuels<br />
Greenhouse effect<br />
Greenhouse gases<br />
Habitat<br />
Ice age<br />
Ice core<br />
8<br />
A climatic pattern that results from <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>teraction between <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> follow-on effect on global<br />
climate. It is caused when <strong>the</strong> trade w<strong>in</strong>ds that blow from east to west<br />
along <strong>the</strong> equator <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific decrease <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensity (this is <strong>the</strong><br />
Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oscillation) <strong>an</strong>d br<strong>in</strong>g about warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong><br />
temperature. The consequences are felt <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific as well as globally.<br />
A pl<strong>an</strong>t or <strong>an</strong>imal is end<strong>an</strong>gered when it is considered to be fac<strong>in</strong>g a<br />
very high risk <strong>of</strong> ext<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild.<br />
Found only <strong>in</strong> a certa<strong>in</strong> strictly limited geographical region, i.e. restricted<br />
to a specified region or locality. This c<strong>an</strong> apply to a disease or to <strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>imal or pl<strong>an</strong>t species.<br />
A pl<strong>an</strong>t or <strong>an</strong>imal considered ext<strong>in</strong>ct <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild when it is known only to<br />
survive <strong>in</strong> cultivation, <strong>in</strong> captivity or as a naturalised population (or<br />
populations) well outside <strong>the</strong> r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>in</strong> which it previously occurred.<br />
A fuel produced by <strong>the</strong> rema<strong>in</strong>s <strong>of</strong> liv<strong>in</strong>g org<strong>an</strong>isms that built up<br />
underground over geological periods. They ma<strong>in</strong>ly consist <strong>of</strong> carbon<br />
<strong>an</strong>d hydrogen <strong>an</strong>d are <strong>the</strong>refore also known as hydrocarbons. They are<br />
found <strong>in</strong> different states: liquid (for example, oil), solid (for example, coal,<br />
peat) <strong>an</strong>d gaseous (for example, natural gas).<br />
The warm<strong>in</strong>g effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth's atmosphere. Light energy from <strong>the</strong> sun<br />
that passes through <strong>the</strong> Earth's atmosphere is absorbed by <strong>the</strong> Earth's<br />
surface <strong>an</strong>d re-radiated <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> atmosphere as heat energy. The heat<br />
energy is <strong>the</strong>n trapped by <strong>the</strong> atmosphere, creat<strong>in</strong>g a situation similar to<br />
that which occurs <strong>in</strong> a greenhouse. Greenhouse gases (see below) allow<br />
<strong>in</strong>com<strong>in</strong>g solar radiation to pass through <strong>the</strong> Earth's atmosphere, but<br />
prevent most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> outgo<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>frared radiation from <strong>the</strong> surface <strong>an</strong>d<br />
lower atmosphere from escap<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to outer space. This process occurs<br />
naturally <strong>an</strong>d has kept <strong>the</strong> Earth's temperature about 15°C warmer th<strong>an</strong> it<br />
would o<strong>the</strong>rwise be. Current life on Earth could not be susta<strong>in</strong>ed without<br />
<strong>the</strong> natural greenhouse effect.<br />
The atmospheric gases that absorb <strong>an</strong>d emit radiation at specific<br />
wavelengths with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> spectrum <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>frared radiation emitted by <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth’s surface, <strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>an</strong>d clouds. Water vapour (H 2 O),<br />
carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), meth<strong>an</strong>e (CH 4 ), <strong>an</strong>d ozone<br />
(O 3 ) are <strong>the</strong> primary greenhouse gases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth’s atmosphere.<br />
The location <strong>an</strong>d environmental conditions <strong>in</strong> which a particular<br />
org<strong>an</strong>ism (pl<strong>an</strong>t, <strong>an</strong>imal, fungus or bacterium) normally lives.<br />
A period <strong>of</strong> long-term reduction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> temperature <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth's surface<br />
<strong>an</strong>d atmosphere, result<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> exp<strong>an</strong>sion <strong>of</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>ental ice sheets,<br />
polar ice sheets <strong>an</strong>d alp<strong>in</strong>e glaciers.<br />
Cyl<strong>in</strong>ders <strong>of</strong> ice obta<strong>in</strong>ed by drill<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to a glacier. S<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> different<br />
layers <strong>of</strong> ice are formed over time through build-up <strong>of</strong> snow, ice cores<br />
provide <strong>in</strong>formation on climate from different periods (up to almost one<br />
million years) that c<strong>an</strong> be used for research.
Glossary cont’d<br />
Intergovernmental P<strong>an</strong>el<br />
on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
Invasive species<br />
Kyoto Protocol<br />
Mitigation<br />
Native species<br />
Photosyn<strong>the</strong>sis<br />
(Carbon) Sequestration<br />
United Nations<br />
Framework Convention<br />
on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
Vulnerable species<br />
Wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Established <strong>in</strong> 1988 by <strong>the</strong> World Meteorological Org<strong>an</strong>ization <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
UN Environment Programme, <strong>the</strong> IPCC surveys world-wide scientific<br />
<strong>an</strong>d technical literature <strong>an</strong>d publishes assessment reports that are<br />
widely recognized as <strong>the</strong> most credible exist<strong>in</strong>g sources <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
on climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. The IPCC also works on methodologies <strong>an</strong>d<br />
responds to specific requests from <strong>the</strong> subsidiary bodies <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> United<br />
Nations Framework Convention on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (UNFCCC – see<br />
below) The IPCC is <strong>in</strong>dependent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Convention.<br />
Pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals that are <strong>in</strong>troduced to <strong>an</strong> area from <strong>an</strong>o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>an</strong>d<br />
successfully establish <strong>the</strong>mselves <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>n overcome, o<strong>the</strong>rwise <strong>in</strong>tact,<br />
pre-exist<strong>in</strong>g native ecosystems.<br />
An <strong>in</strong>ternational agreement that is l<strong>in</strong>ked to <strong>the</strong> United Nations<br />
Framework Convention on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (UNFCCC). Its major<br />
feature is that it sets b<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g targets for 37 <strong>in</strong>dustrialized countries <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> Europe<strong>an</strong> community for reduc<strong>in</strong>g greenhouse gas (GHG)<br />
emissions. These amount to <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> five per cent aga<strong>in</strong>st 1990<br />
levels over <strong>the</strong> five-year period 2008-2012.<br />
Interventions to reduce <strong>the</strong> sources or enh<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> s<strong>in</strong>ks <strong>of</strong><br />
greenhouse gases.<br />
All pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals that naturally occur, ei<strong>the</strong>r presently or<br />
historically, <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> ecosystem.<br />
The process a pl<strong>an</strong>t uses to comb<strong>in</strong>e sunlight, water, <strong>an</strong>d carbon<br />
dioxide to produce oxygen <strong>an</strong>d energy (sugar).<br />
The removal <strong>an</strong>d storage <strong>of</strong> carbon from <strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>in</strong> carbon<br />
s<strong>in</strong>ks (such as oce<strong>an</strong>s, forests or soils) through physical or biological<br />
processes, such as photosyn<strong>the</strong>sis.<br />
The Convention on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge sets <strong>an</strong> overall framework for<br />
<strong>in</strong>tergovernmental efforts to tackle <strong>the</strong> global challenge posed by<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. It recognises that <strong>the</strong> climate system is a shared<br />
resource whose stability c<strong>an</strong> be affected by <strong>in</strong>dustrial <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
emissions <strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r greenhouse gases. The<br />
Convention enjoys near universal membership, hav<strong>in</strong>g been ratified by<br />
192 countries.<br />
A pl<strong>an</strong>t or <strong>an</strong>imal is vulnerable when it is considered to be fac<strong>in</strong>g a<br />
high risk <strong>of</strong> ext<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild.<br />
Short-term atmospheric conditions. Wea<strong>the</strong>r is measured by<br />
temperature, humidity, w<strong>in</strong>d speed, atmospheric pressure, cloud<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
<strong>an</strong>d precipitation.<br />
Sources: Green Facts Glossary http://www.greenfacts.org; IPCC Glossary <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong><br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ge Terms http://www.unfccc.<strong>in</strong>t; IUCN http://www.iucn.org; La Cité des Sciences et<br />
de l'<strong>in</strong>dustrie http://www.cite-sciences.fr; CANA www.c<strong>an</strong>a.net.au/kyoto/template.php<br />
9
Executive Summary<br />
What do droughts <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>, more <strong>in</strong>tense hurric<strong>an</strong>es <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>,<br />
warmer seas <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic, <strong>an</strong>d disappear<strong>in</strong>g coastl<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific have <strong>in</strong><br />
common? They are all results <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> phenomenon known as climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. <strong>Climate</strong><br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, or global warm<strong>in</strong>g as it is sometimes called, refers to <strong>the</strong> steady climb <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth’s temperature caused by <strong>in</strong>creased levels <strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r gases <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> atmosphere. It is a press<strong>in</strong>g issue for <strong>the</strong> entire global community <strong>an</strong>d it is one that<br />
<strong>the</strong> 14 United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Overseas Territories (<strong>UKOTs</strong>) c<strong>an</strong>not afford to ignore.<br />
The global trend <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth’s average temperature is undoubtedly upwards:<br />
• Global average surface temperature <strong>in</strong>creased by about 0.6°C dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> 20th<br />
century.<br />
• Sea levels <strong>in</strong>creased between 10 cm <strong>an</strong>d 20 cm <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> temperature <strong>an</strong>d<br />
acidity <strong>of</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>s <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d.<br />
• The 1990s were <strong>the</strong> hottest decade on record <strong>an</strong>d 1998 <strong>the</strong> hottest year on<br />
record s<strong>in</strong>ce temperature record<strong>in</strong>g beg<strong>an</strong> some 150 years ago.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is happen<strong>in</strong>g at a much faster rate th<strong>an</strong> orig<strong>in</strong>ally expected. The<br />
Intergovernmental P<strong>an</strong>el on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (IPCC), <strong>an</strong> assessment team <strong>of</strong> hundreds<br />
<strong>of</strong> scientists worldwide who have been study<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d track<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> climate system <strong>an</strong>d<br />
reach<strong>in</strong>g consensus on <strong>the</strong>ir f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>an</strong>d observations s<strong>in</strong>ce 1988, has warned that<br />
average global surface temperatures could <strong>in</strong>crease between 1.4°C <strong>an</strong>d 5.8°C by <strong>the</strong><br />
end <strong>of</strong> this century. This projection is signific<strong>an</strong>tly larger th<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong> p<strong>an</strong>el’s 1996<br />
prediction at <strong>the</strong> time <strong>of</strong> its second assessment report, which suggested temperatures<br />
could <strong>in</strong>crease between 1°C <strong>an</strong>d 3.5°C by 2100.<br />
As a result <strong>of</strong> this warm<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>the</strong> IPCC has projected that <strong>the</strong> global me<strong>an</strong> sea level<br />
could rise between 9 cm <strong>an</strong>d 88 cm between 1990 <strong>an</strong>d 2100. This could me<strong>an</strong><br />
flood<strong>in</strong>g, loss <strong>of</strong> l<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong> low-ly<strong>in</strong>g areas, contam<strong>in</strong>ation <strong>of</strong> groundwater with saltwater,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> destruction <strong>of</strong> wetl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d coastal ecosystems. Warm<strong>in</strong>g also br<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> precipitation patterns. Water-scarce areas, like <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>, are<br />
likely to suffer from fur<strong>the</strong>r decreases <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall. Some areas, like <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> Pacific, will experience <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensity <strong>of</strong> tropical cyclones.<br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r impact associated with <strong>the</strong> warm<strong>in</strong>g climate is <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> distribution,<br />
r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>an</strong>d abund<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals. Ch<strong>an</strong>ged climatic conditions will ei<strong>the</strong>r<br />
allow <strong>the</strong>m to thrive outside <strong>the</strong>ir usual r<strong>an</strong>ge or make <strong>the</strong>ir usual r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>in</strong>hospitable.<br />
Melt<strong>in</strong>g glaciers, also known as glacial retreat, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d South<br />
S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, could <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> habitat <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>vasive mice <strong>an</strong>d re<strong>in</strong>deer, which<br />
would put <strong>the</strong> Antarctic’s only songbird, <strong>the</strong> endemic South Georgia pipit (Anthus<br />
<strong>an</strong>tarcticus), at risk.<br />
10
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is also likely to affect hum<strong>an</strong> health, not only through <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> heat<br />
stress <strong>an</strong>d air pollution, but also through decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g water quality <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> spread <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>fectious diseases as vectors <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> r<strong>an</strong>ge or modify <strong>the</strong>ir life cycles. In both <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Pacific, <strong>the</strong>re is concern about <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> frequency <strong>an</strong>d<br />
severity <strong>of</strong> dengue fever outbreaks as warmer temperatures reduce <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>cubation<br />
period <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> dengue virus <strong>an</strong>d speed up <strong>the</strong> larval stage <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mosquitoes.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> poses a challenge for all aspects <strong>of</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d social development<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>. It is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most complex issues <strong>of</strong> our time <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> relationship<br />
between m<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> environment is at <strong>the</strong> heart <strong>of</strong> this issue. As with all<br />
environmental issues, impacts <strong>an</strong>d consequences come toge<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong> a large<br />
<strong>in</strong>terconnected web.<br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r level <strong>of</strong> complexity stems from <strong>the</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty that surrounds climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
There is consensus that <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is tak<strong>in</strong>g place, but <strong>the</strong>re is less agreement on what<br />
portion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is due to natural climate variability <strong>an</strong>d what portion is a<br />
consequence <strong>of</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> activity. Although <strong>the</strong> science is still evolv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
projections are h<strong>in</strong>dered by large uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties, <strong>the</strong>re is grow<strong>in</strong>g evidence that climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> could cause sudden <strong>an</strong>d d<strong>an</strong>gerous <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s. This evidence ought not to be<br />
ignored by <strong>UKOTs</strong>.<br />
Part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> core concern about climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is <strong>the</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> potential to alter <strong>the</strong><br />
climate through activities that are a result <strong>of</strong> our way <strong>of</strong> life <strong>an</strong>d how we treat <strong>the</strong> natural<br />
environment. However, <strong>the</strong> fact that we contribute to <strong>the</strong> problem me<strong>an</strong>s we c<strong>an</strong> also<br />
do someth<strong>in</strong>g about it. The Europe<strong>an</strong> Union, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, has set a<br />
target to ensure that global temperatures do not rise by more th<strong>an</strong> 2°C above pre<strong>in</strong>dustrial<br />
levels. Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> requires a global agreement for reduc<strong>in</strong>g<br />
greenhouse gas emissions as well as local commitment to action.<br />
Although <strong>UKOTs</strong> are negligible producers <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases <strong>in</strong> global terms, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
are very vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>creased concentrations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se gases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere. This stems, <strong>in</strong> part, from <strong>in</strong>herent economic, ecological <strong>an</strong>d social<br />
vulnerabilities associated with <strong>the</strong> small size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir l<strong>an</strong>d mass, populations <strong>an</strong>d<br />
economies. In addition, several <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ecosystems found <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> territories, such as<br />
m<strong>an</strong>groves <strong>an</strong>d coral reefs <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d Pacific, sea ice biomes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Antarctic, <strong>an</strong>d Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>-type ecosystems, are among those that <strong>the</strong> IPCC has<br />
identified as “most vulnerable” <strong>an</strong>d “virtually certa<strong>in</strong> to experience <strong>the</strong> most severe<br />
ecological impacts” <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. With <strong>the</strong> exception <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> British Antarctic<br />
Territory <strong>an</strong>d Gibraltar, <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are small isl<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>an</strong>d small isl<strong>an</strong>ds are expected to<br />
experience some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most severe impacts <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g temperatures.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is also <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g pressure on <strong>the</strong> rich biodiversity resources <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>. It is affect<strong>in</strong>g habitats <strong>an</strong>d ecosystems <strong>an</strong>d could lead to a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
populations <strong>of</strong> some species. For example, coastal erosion, some <strong>of</strong> which is l<strong>in</strong>ked to<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, is caus<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> turtle nest<strong>in</strong>g sites <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> territories.<br />
This loss <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals has more th<strong>an</strong> just ecological consequences for <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>. There are economic consequences that need to be considered. Several <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
territories, particularly those <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic, depend to<br />
11
vary<strong>in</strong>g degrees on tourism. The<br />
environment plays a large role <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
viability <strong>of</strong> this <strong>in</strong>dustry. Fisheries <strong>an</strong>d<br />
agriculture are similarly very<br />
dependent on <strong>the</strong> environment. This<br />
me<strong>an</strong>s ecological <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s, such as<br />
decl<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong> populations <strong>of</strong> some<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals, c<strong>an</strong> negatively<br />
affect <strong>the</strong>se <strong>in</strong>dustries.<br />
Because <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>an</strong>d small isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
are more vulnerable, it is particularly<br />
import<strong>an</strong>t that <strong>the</strong>ir citizens<br />
underst<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> hazards <strong>an</strong>d risks<br />
associated with climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> actions <strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> take to make a<br />
difference.<br />
Although climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d its<br />
impacts may seem daunt<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>the</strong>re<br />
are th<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> do about <strong>the</strong>m<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir local context. Tak<strong>in</strong>g action<br />
now to prepare for climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
impacts will be less costly <strong>an</strong>d more<br />
effective th<strong>an</strong> remedial measures <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> future. Address<strong>in</strong>g climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> now is <strong>an</strong> opportunity for <strong>the</strong><br />
territories to build resilience <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> face <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>in</strong>herent vulnerabilities, improve natural<br />
resource m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>an</strong>d physical pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g processes, as well as adapt to ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate conditions.<br />
Underst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g both <strong>the</strong> need <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> opportunities for adaptation to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
is fast becom<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong> essential requirement <strong>of</strong> both governments <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> private sector<br />
<strong>of</strong> vulnerable countries. Good climate policy <strong>in</strong>cludes ensur<strong>in</strong>g structures <strong>an</strong>d systems<br />
are better able to withst<strong>an</strong>d <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> (adaptation) <strong>an</strong>d tak<strong>in</strong>g measures to reduce <strong>the</strong><br />
hum<strong>an</strong> impact on <strong>the</strong> climate system (mitigation).<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> make a small contribution to warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d have little control over global<br />
mitigation, but <strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> play <strong>the</strong>ir part <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> global reduction <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gas<br />
emissions <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g ways:<br />
• enh<strong>an</strong>c<strong>in</strong>g energy efficiency;<br />
• diversify<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir energy sources <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g reli<strong>an</strong>ce on non-fossil fuel<br />
sources <strong>of</strong> energy; <strong>an</strong>d<br />
• provid<strong>in</strong>g for <strong>the</strong> development <strong>an</strong>d uptake <strong>of</strong> climate friendly technologies.<br />
Contribut<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> global reduction <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gas emissions is certa<strong>in</strong>ly a good<br />
th<strong>in</strong>g for <strong>an</strong>y member <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational community to do, but <strong>the</strong> benefits <strong>of</strong> such<br />
12<br />
Ascension has a unique biodiversity largely<br />
stemm<strong>in</strong>g from <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d's remote location <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic. Credit: Chris Gilbert/BAS
actions are also immediate to <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> form <strong>of</strong> reduced fossil fuel dependency,<br />
decreased dependency on imports <strong>an</strong>d lower fossil fuel import bills.<br />
There is a very strong case for <strong>UKOTs</strong> to br<strong>in</strong>g adaptation <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>stream <strong>of</strong><br />
national policymak<strong>in</strong>g, pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d development. Adaptation is <strong>the</strong> only way to deal<br />
with <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>escapable impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. The reality <strong>of</strong> global warm<strong>in</strong>g me<strong>an</strong>s<br />
that development c<strong>an</strong>not be susta<strong>in</strong>able unless it factors <strong>in</strong> climate impacts <strong>an</strong>d<br />
natural hazards <strong>an</strong>d f<strong>in</strong>ds ways <strong>of</strong> reduc<strong>in</strong>g risks <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>in</strong>imis<strong>in</strong>g vulnerability. Several<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are prone to natural disaster as part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir normal climate conditions.<br />
Effectively m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>herent risk is import<strong>an</strong>t <strong>in</strong> adapt<strong>in</strong>g to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> issues <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> national policy <strong>an</strong>d pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g process<br />
does not require a dramatic departure from all that has gone before <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>re are even<br />
m<strong>an</strong>y low- or no-cost actions that c<strong>an</strong> be taken. For example, ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g<br />
adaptation c<strong>an</strong> be done <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>cremental way, by build<strong>in</strong>g on, <strong>an</strong>d adjust<strong>in</strong>g, exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />
policies, programmes, <strong>an</strong>d structures. What is required is a commitment to deal<strong>in</strong>g<br />
efficiently <strong>an</strong>d comprehensively with current climate, environmental, social <strong>an</strong>d<br />
economic needs <strong>an</strong>d vulnerabilities <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegrated or holistic m<strong>an</strong>ner. By address<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> development challenges that have led to <strong>the</strong> accumulation <strong>of</strong> hazard <strong>an</strong>d hum<strong>an</strong><br />
vulnerability, decision makers <strong>an</strong>d pl<strong>an</strong>ners will reduce <strong>the</strong> negative effects <strong>of</strong> extreme<br />
climatic events <strong>an</strong>d natural disasters. This will signific<strong>an</strong>tly limit <strong>the</strong> immediate losses<br />
while reduc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> future costs <strong>of</strong> recovery from climate events. For policy <strong>an</strong>d<br />
decision makers, adaptation to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is a w<strong>in</strong>-w<strong>in</strong> proposition.<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> is everyone’s bus<strong>in</strong>ess, not just a matter for<br />
policy <strong>an</strong>d decision-makers to deal with. Individuals, households, <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> public <strong>an</strong>d<br />
private sector c<strong>an</strong> do <strong>the</strong>ir part to reduce <strong>the</strong>ir own vulnerability to <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong><br />
climate as well as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by mak<strong>in</strong>g life style choices.<br />
It is hard to predict with complete accuracy <strong>the</strong> full extent <strong>of</strong> how climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> will<br />
affect <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>, but what is certa<strong>in</strong> is that <strong>the</strong>re is a lot at stake for <strong>the</strong>m. Adopt<strong>in</strong>g a<br />
wait <strong>an</strong>d see attitude towards climate will serve no one’s <strong>in</strong>terests <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> long term.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is a big issue with big impacts <strong>an</strong>d potentially serious consequences.<br />
Adaptation <strong>an</strong>d mitigation do not come cheap <strong>an</strong>d without effort, but <strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> do<strong>in</strong>g<br />
noth<strong>in</strong>g will surely be higher.<br />
13
Why climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> matters<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
1<br />
1.1 A press<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d complex<br />
issue<br />
Compell<strong>in</strong>g evidence<br />
The scientific evidence is <strong>in</strong>disputable.<br />
The world’s climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
20th century. Global average surface temperature<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased by about 0.6°C; snow<br />
cover <strong>an</strong>d ice extent decreased; <strong>the</strong> temperature<br />
<strong>an</strong>d acidity <strong>of</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>s <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d<br />
<strong>an</strong>d sea levels around <strong>the</strong> world <strong>in</strong>creased<br />
between 10cm <strong>an</strong>d 20 cm. Seasonal patterns,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g ra<strong>in</strong>fall, have also <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> world over. The 1990s were <strong>the</strong> hottest<br />
decade <strong>an</strong>d 1998 <strong>the</strong> warmest year on<br />
record, s<strong>in</strong>ce temperature record<strong>in</strong>g<br />
beg<strong>an</strong> some 150 years ago. And, while it is<br />
“<br />
… <strong>the</strong>re have been natural<br />
<strong>an</strong>d cyclical variations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth’s climate <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> past,<br />
[but] <strong>the</strong> current rate <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is faster th<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>yth<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>et has<br />
experienced before.<br />
true that <strong>the</strong>re have been natural <strong>an</strong>d<br />
cyclical variations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth’s climate <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> past, it is also true that <strong>the</strong> current rate<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is faster th<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>yth<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
pl<strong>an</strong>et has experienced before.<br />
What’s more, <strong>the</strong>re is evidence that <strong>the</strong><br />
pace <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> has been accelerated by<br />
14<br />
Unpack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
Why <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge Matters for<br />
UK Overseas Territories<br />
”<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>:<br />
present <strong>an</strong>d<br />
future impacts<br />
What c<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> do<br />
about climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>?<br />
The way<br />
forward<br />
hum<strong>an</strong> activities, or <strong>an</strong>thropogenic<br />
causes, such as <strong>the</strong> burn<strong>in</strong>g fossil fuels<br />
for energy <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> cutt<strong>in</strong>g down <strong>of</strong> forests<br />
for agriculture. Such activities have helped<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> concentration, <strong>an</strong>d alter <strong>the</strong><br />
bal<strong>an</strong>ce, <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> greenhouse gases that<br />
are responsible for keep<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Earth<br />
warm. The net effect has been warmer surface<br />
<strong>an</strong>d sea temperatures. These have <strong>in</strong><br />
turn affected nature <strong>an</strong>d society <strong>in</strong> a<br />
number <strong>of</strong> different ways.<br />
The complexities <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most complex<br />
issues <strong>of</strong> our time. The relationship<br />
between m<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> environment is at<br />
<strong>the</strong> heart <strong>of</strong> this big issue, <strong>an</strong>d, as with all<br />
environmental issues, impacts <strong>an</strong>d consequences<br />
come toge<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong> a large <strong>in</strong>terconnected<br />
web.<br />
One small <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, like <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> sea<br />
surface temperature by a few degrees, c<strong>an</strong><br />
spark a cha<strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong> reactions. Warmer waters<br />
affect coral reef health <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> availability<br />
<strong>of</strong> fish species. In countries that are highly<br />
dependent on fisheries, a downturn <strong>in</strong> this<br />
sector has a negative impact on <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
families as well as <strong>the</strong> national economy.<br />
Even though m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> are environmental, for<br />
example, sea level rise, flood<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g seasonal patterns, it also has<br />
far-reach<strong>in</strong>g implications for economies,
social development, physical pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d even hum<strong>an</strong> security. The all-encompass<strong>in</strong>g<br />
nature <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> me<strong>an</strong>s<br />
it could affect every aspect <strong>of</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> wellbe<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
from jobs <strong>an</strong>d livelihoods, to health,<br />
food security, leisure <strong>an</strong>d recreation.<br />
Respond<strong>in</strong>g to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>the</strong>refore<br />
needs action on several different fronts.<br />
We need to dramatically reduce <strong>an</strong>d cap<br />
greenhouse gas emissions while also putt<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong> place measures to prepare for <strong>an</strong>d<br />
respond to current <strong>an</strong>d future climate<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s. Without some stabilisation<br />
<strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases with<strong>in</strong> a<br />
timeframe <strong>an</strong>d at a level that allows<br />
ecosystems to adapt naturally to <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>,<br />
<strong>the</strong> consequences for m<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d nature are<br />
expected to be dire. With this <strong>in</strong> m<strong>in</strong>d, <strong>the</strong><br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Europe<strong>an</strong> Union<br />
have set a target to ensure that global temperatures<br />
do not rise by more th<strong>an</strong> 2°C<br />
above pre-<strong>in</strong>dustrial levels.<br />
Ano<strong>the</strong>r complexity <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> stems<br />
from <strong>the</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty that surrounds it.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong>re is consensus that <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is<br />
tak<strong>in</strong>g place, <strong>the</strong>re is less agreement on what<br />
proportion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is natural climate<br />
variability <strong>an</strong>d what proportion is hum<strong>an</strong><strong>in</strong>duced.<br />
This makes it difficult for <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
countries to decide what resources to allocate<br />
to reduc<strong>in</strong>g hum<strong>an</strong> impact on <strong>the</strong> climate<br />
system (mitigation) <strong>an</strong>d what to spend<br />
Coastal erosion <strong>in</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
Credit: Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Environment, Caym<strong>an</strong><br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>d Government<br />
“<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
requires a global agreement<br />
for reduc<strong>in</strong>g greenhouse gas<br />
emissions as well as local<br />
commitment to action.<br />
”<br />
on streng<strong>the</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir structures to withst<strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> (adaptation).<br />
Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty about <strong>the</strong> patterns <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> scale <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> impacts fur<strong>the</strong>r complicates<br />
matters. Although <strong>the</strong> evidence <strong>of</strong><br />
past <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> po<strong>in</strong>ts to certa<strong>in</strong> possibilities,<br />
<strong>the</strong>re is still <strong>an</strong> element <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> unknown.<br />
Countries <strong>the</strong>refore f<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong>mselves faced<br />
with <strong>the</strong> prospect <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g for a very<br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong> future. Not only are <strong>the</strong>re m<strong>an</strong>y<br />
unknowns about <strong>the</strong> full extent <strong>of</strong> future<br />
impacts, current impacts are not well<br />
understood <strong>in</strong> m<strong>an</strong>y countries, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
some United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Overseas Territories<br />
(<strong>UKOTs</strong>) where <strong>the</strong>re has been little<br />
monitor<strong>in</strong>g to date.<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> requires a<br />
global agreement for reduc<strong>in</strong>g greenhouse<br />
gas emissions as well as local commitment<br />
to action. Part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> difficulty <strong>in</strong><br />
forg<strong>in</strong>g a global agreement is that<br />
although everyone is affected, not all have<br />
contributed equally to <strong>the</strong> problem; some<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> places that have contributed least,<br />
such as small isl<strong>an</strong>ds, will be affected <strong>the</strong><br />
most. There are also high costs associated<br />
with reduc<strong>in</strong>g emissions <strong>an</strong>d f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g alternatives<br />
to fossil fuels, which are a large<br />
source <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases.<br />
There is still some debate about how <strong>the</strong><br />
challenge <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> should be<br />
f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ced. Fund<strong>in</strong>g adaptation requires<br />
m<strong>an</strong>y tens <strong>of</strong> billions <strong>of</strong> dollars each year<br />
(Oxfam, 2007). F<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>c<strong>in</strong>g for <strong>the</strong> most<br />
urgent <strong>an</strong>d immediate adaptation priorities<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> least-developed countries (LDCs)<br />
alone is likely to cost $1–2bn. But by 2007,<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustrialised countries had only<br />
15
pledged $182m to <strong>in</strong>ternational funds for<br />
develop<strong>in</strong>g-country adaptation (Oxfam,<br />
2007). An equitable approach to fund<strong>in</strong>g<br />
adaptation would suggest <strong>the</strong> countries<br />
that have contributed most to greenhouse<br />
gas emissions should bear <strong>the</strong> brunt <strong>of</strong> cover<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> adapt<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>an</strong>d counter<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. However, even as <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
debates cont<strong>in</strong>ue about how to fund<br />
adaptation, <strong>the</strong> urgency <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
is such that all countries, regardless <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>come level, have to take responsibility for<br />
re<strong>in</strong>forc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir communities, systems <strong>an</strong>d<br />
natural <strong>an</strong>d physical <strong>in</strong>frastructure.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is experienced<br />
differently throughout <strong>the</strong> world<br />
The <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> climatic conditions has<br />
me<strong>an</strong>t different th<strong>in</strong>gs for people across<br />
<strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>et. For <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong>, it has me<strong>an</strong>t <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity <strong>of</strong> tropical cyclones. The low-ly<strong>in</strong>g<br />
16<br />
Box 1. About <strong>the</strong> Intergovernmental P<strong>an</strong>el on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (IPCC)<br />
The Intergovernmental P<strong>an</strong>el on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (IPCC) is <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>tergovernmental<br />
scientific body that was set up <strong>in</strong> 1988 by <strong>the</strong> World Meteorological Org<strong>an</strong>isation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> United Nations Environment Programme. It assesses <strong>an</strong>d summarises scientific,<br />
technical, <strong>an</strong>d socio-economic <strong>in</strong>formation <strong>an</strong>d research that relates to hum<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>duced<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g options for mitigation <strong>an</strong>d adaptation. It aims to provide<br />
decision makers <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>rs <strong>in</strong>terested <strong>in</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> with <strong>an</strong> objective source <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>formation about climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Its review work is done by hundreds <strong>of</strong> scientists worldwide who collaborate through<br />
three work<strong>in</strong>g groups <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Task Force on National Green House Gas Inventories.<br />
• Work<strong>in</strong>g Group 1 deals with "The Physical Science Basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge";<br />
• Work<strong>in</strong>g Group 2 deals with "<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge Impact, Adaptation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Vulnerability"; <strong>an</strong>d<br />
• Work<strong>in</strong>g Group 3 deals with "Mitigation <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge".<br />
The ma<strong>in</strong> objective <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Task Force is to develop <strong>an</strong>d ref<strong>in</strong>e a methodology for <strong>the</strong><br />
calculation <strong>an</strong>d report<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> national greenhouse gas emissions <strong>an</strong>d removals.<br />
The conclusions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> work<strong>in</strong>g groups are presented <strong>in</strong> comprehensive Assessment<br />
Reports. To date, four Assessment Reports have been completed <strong>in</strong> 1990, 1995 <strong>an</strong>d 2001<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 2007 respectively.<br />
Source: IPCC (www.ipcc.ch)<br />
Chagos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong><br />
Territory (BIOT) are fac<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> prospect <strong>of</strong><br />
los<strong>in</strong>g some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir already small l<strong>an</strong>d<br />
area because <strong>of</strong> ris<strong>in</strong>g sea levels. In <strong>the</strong><br />
Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> region, <strong>the</strong> threat <strong>of</strong><br />
drought has <strong>in</strong>creased.<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ge is expected to cont<strong>in</strong>ue<br />
Based on <strong>the</strong> evidence <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> to date,<br />
scientists have modelled future impacts<br />
<strong>an</strong>d risks <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> factor<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> various<br />
emissions scenarios based on different<br />
sets <strong>of</strong> assumptions. It is not<br />
possible to predict what will happen with<br />
100 per cent accuracy, but adverse effects<br />
are projected. The Intergovernmental P<strong>an</strong>el<br />
on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (IPCC) (Box 1) has<br />
warned that average global surface temperatures<br />
could <strong>in</strong>crease between 1.4°C<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 5.8°C by <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> this century. It has<br />
also projected that <strong>the</strong> global me<strong>an</strong> sea<br />
level could rise between 9 cm <strong>an</strong>d 88 cm
“<br />
…<strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are very<br />
vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong><br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
”<br />
between 1990 <strong>an</strong>d 2100. Were <strong>the</strong>se<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s to occur over millennia, <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
impact would be less severe as pl<strong>an</strong>t <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>an</strong>imal species, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g m<strong>an</strong>, would gradually<br />
adapt to new conditions. However, <strong>the</strong><br />
current <strong>an</strong>d projected rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is so<br />
fast that <strong>the</strong>re is little capacity for natural<br />
adaptation.<br />
1.2 UK Overseas Territories<br />
have much to lose<br />
Though disparate, as a group <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
are very vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Several <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ecosystems found<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>, such as m<strong>an</strong>groves <strong>an</strong>d<br />
coral reefs <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d Pacific,<br />
sea ice biomes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>-type ecosystems are<br />
among those that <strong>the</strong> IPCC has identified<br />
as “most vulnerable” <strong>an</strong>d “virtually certa<strong>in</strong><br />
to experience <strong>the</strong> most severe ecological<br />
impacts” <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> (Parry et al.,<br />
2007) In addition, <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> (with <strong>the</strong><br />
exception <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> British Antarctic Territory<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Gibraltar) are small isl<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>an</strong>d small<br />
isl<strong>an</strong>ds are expected to experience some<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most severe impacts <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />
temperatures (Mimura et al., 2007).<br />
Inherent vulnerabilities comb<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
with climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease risk<br />
to natural hazards<br />
Most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> face <strong>in</strong>herent economic,<br />
ecological <strong>an</strong>d social vulnerabilities<br />
associated with <strong>the</strong> small size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
l<strong>an</strong>d mass, populations <strong>an</strong>d economies.<br />
The economies <strong>of</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are not highly<br />
diversified <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>y depend on a narrow<br />
r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> goods <strong>an</strong>d/or services. <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
are too small to realise ga<strong>in</strong>s from<br />
economies <strong>of</strong> scale, are highly dependent<br />
Low-ly<strong>in</strong>g coastal areas <strong>in</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are<br />
vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> threat <strong>of</strong> ris<strong>in</strong>g sea levels.<br />
Credit: Charles Sheppard<br />
on exports, have high communication <strong>an</strong>d<br />
tr<strong>an</strong>sportation costs <strong>an</strong>d are vulnerable to<br />
natural hazards. Ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g climate patterns<br />
<strong>an</strong>d extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r add <strong>an</strong>o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
dimension <strong>of</strong> vulnerability.<br />
Threats to biodiversity <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
economy<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is also <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g pressure<br />
on <strong>the</strong> rich biodiversity resources <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>. It is affect<strong>in</strong>g habitats <strong>an</strong>d<br />
ecosystems <strong>an</strong>d could lead to a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> populations <strong>of</strong> some species. For<br />
example, <strong>the</strong>re are fewer available turtle<br />
nest<strong>in</strong>g sites <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> territories as<br />
a result <strong>of</strong> coastal erosion, some <strong>of</strong> which<br />
is l<strong>in</strong>ked to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Loss <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals has more th<strong>an</strong><br />
just ecological consequences for <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>. There are economic consequences<br />
that need to be considered. Several<br />
territories, particularly those <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic,<br />
depend to vary<strong>in</strong>g degrees on tourism.<br />
The environment plays a large role <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
viability <strong>of</strong> this <strong>in</strong>dustry. Fisheries <strong>an</strong>d<br />
agriculture are similarly very dependent<br />
17
“<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
is <strong>an</strong> opportunity for <strong>the</strong><br />
territories to build resilience<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> face <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>herent<br />
vulnerabilities associated<br />
with <strong>the</strong>ir size <strong>an</strong>d natural<br />
features…<br />
”<br />
on <strong>the</strong> environment. Therefore, ecological<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s, such as decl<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong> populations<br />
<strong>of</strong> some pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals, c<strong>an</strong> negatively<br />
affect <strong>the</strong>se <strong>in</strong>dustries.<br />
1.3 The time to act is now<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> ought to assume that future climate<br />
impacts will be more severe th<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>yth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
experienced to date. The scope <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
problem, <strong>the</strong> challenge <strong>of</strong> reach<strong>in</strong>g global<br />
consensus, <strong>the</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>of</strong> future projections<br />
becom<strong>in</strong>g reality, <strong>the</strong> question<br />
about how much <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is due to natural<br />
variability <strong>an</strong>d how much is hum<strong>an</strong><strong>in</strong>duced,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> very practical issue <strong>of</strong><br />
cost should not be barriers to tak<strong>in</strong>g decisive<br />
action now. No matter what <strong>the</strong> scenario<br />
for <strong>the</strong> future <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gas<br />
emissions, <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is already underway.<br />
The big question is, c<strong>an</strong> countries <strong>an</strong>d citizens<br />
afford to do noth<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> face <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>exorable <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> climate patterns? It<br />
is only with h<strong>in</strong>dsight that we will have<br />
18<br />
View from St. Helena<br />
Credit: V<strong>in</strong>ce Thompson, St. Helena National Trust.<br />
conclusive evidence, but by <strong>the</strong>n it could<br />
be too late. People <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> environment<br />
will already be confronted with <strong>the</strong> consequences<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d conditions. Tak<strong>in</strong>g<br />
action now to cap greenhouse gas emissions<br />
<strong>an</strong>d prepare for climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
impacts will be less costly <strong>an</strong>d more effective<br />
th<strong>an</strong> remedial measures <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
An opportunity for UK Overseas<br />
Territories<br />
Although climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d its impacts<br />
may seem daunt<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>the</strong>re are th<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> do about <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir local<br />
context. Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is <strong>an</strong><br />
opportunity for <strong>the</strong> territories to build<br />
resilience <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> face <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>herent vulnerabilities<br />
associated with <strong>the</strong>ir size <strong>an</strong>d natural<br />
features, <strong>in</strong> addition to adapt<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g climate conditions. It is also <strong>an</strong><br />
opportunity for <strong>the</strong>se countries to take<br />
measures to stem future impacts as part <strong>of</strong><br />
a strategy <strong>of</strong> mov<strong>in</strong>g towards what former<br />
UN Secretary-General K<strong>of</strong>i Ann<strong>an</strong> has<br />
referred to as “safer, sounder models <strong>of</strong><br />
development” (Ann<strong>an</strong>, 2006). <strong>UKOTs</strong> have<br />
<strong>the</strong> potential to be models <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation <strong>an</strong>d mitigation for <strong>the</strong><br />
rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
A ‘w<strong>in</strong> – w<strong>in</strong>’ proposition<br />
Adaptation c<strong>an</strong> be a ‘w<strong>in</strong>-w<strong>in</strong>’ situation for<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>. Targeted actions designed to<br />
address current issues such as <strong>the</strong> need<br />
for effective biodiversity conservation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> reduction <strong>of</strong> vulnerability to climatic<br />
events (for example, droughts, storms,<br />
floods) are <strong>the</strong> first steps <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation process. This approach<br />
is based on <strong>the</strong> premise that if a country or<br />
community is not fully able to cope with current<br />
climatic conditions, it c<strong>an</strong>not expect to<br />
effectively adapt to future <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> climate.<br />
Any commitment or <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong><br />
current needs <strong>the</strong>refore elim<strong>in</strong>ates <strong>the</strong><br />
question <strong>of</strong> whe<strong>the</strong>r to <strong>in</strong>vest <strong>in</strong> current<br />
needs or climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation.
Figure 1. Selected global warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d impacts <strong>in</strong><br />
UK Overseas Territories 1<br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong>:<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased<br />
tropical cyclone<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity<br />
Turks <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Caicos Is.<br />
Caym<strong>an</strong> Is.<br />
Pitcairn Is.<br />
Increase <strong>in</strong><br />
dengue fever<br />
outbreaks<br />
Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Is.<br />
British Antarctic<br />
Territory<br />
M<strong>an</strong>grove<br />
forests <strong>in</strong><br />
retreat<br />
Bermuda<br />
British Virg<strong>in</strong> Is.<br />
Anguilla<br />
Montserrat<br />
Glacial retreat<br />
could <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
<strong>the</strong> habitat <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>vasive<br />
species <strong>an</strong>d<br />
end<strong>an</strong>ger<br />
native <strong>an</strong>d<br />
endemic<br />
species like<br />
<strong>the</strong> Antarctic’s<br />
only song bird,<br />
<strong>the</strong> South<br />
Georgia pipit<br />
Inundation <strong>of</strong><br />
turtle nests<br />
Low ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Western<br />
Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong><br />
Gibraltar<br />
Sovereign Base Areas <strong>of</strong><br />
Akrotiri <strong>an</strong>d Dhekelia<br />
Ascension<br />
St. Helena<br />
Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha<br />
South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
South S<strong>an</strong>dwich Is.<br />
Decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong><br />
tourism from<br />
sport fishers<br />
from a<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong><br />
distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
tuna<br />
Severe coral<br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
events<br />
British Indi<strong>an</strong><br />
Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory<br />
Absorptive<br />
capacity <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
Oce<strong>an</strong> has<br />
weakened<br />
s<strong>in</strong>ce 1981<br />
Key<br />
Or<strong>an</strong>ge Icon = Observed <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
Blue Icon = Implications <strong>an</strong>d projected impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
1 These are just a few examples. Each country <strong>an</strong>d region is likely to experience multiple <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d impacts.<br />
19
Box 2. The UK Overseas Territories <strong>in</strong> Brief<br />
The 14 United K<strong>in</strong>gdom’s Overseas Territories are a diverse group<strong>in</strong>g. They r<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
from <strong>the</strong> t<strong>in</strong>y Pacific isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong> Pitcairn with 47 <strong>in</strong>habit<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d a fragile subsistence<br />
economy based on fish<strong>in</strong>g, horticulture, <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> sale <strong>of</strong> h<strong>an</strong>dicrafts, to Bermuda just<br />
north <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>, which has a population <strong>of</strong> more th<strong>an</strong> 62,000 <strong>an</strong>d is one <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> world's major f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial centres. They also <strong>in</strong>clude <strong>the</strong> Sovereign Base Areas on<br />
Cyprus, which are military bases.<br />
The Overseas Territories are: Anguilla; British Antarctic Territory; Bermuda; British<br />
Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory; British Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds; Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds; Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds;<br />
Gibraltar; Montserrat; St. Helena <strong>an</strong>d Dependencies (Ascension Isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d Trist<strong>an</strong><br />
da Cunha); Turks <strong>an</strong>d Caicos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds; Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>d; South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d South<br />
S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds; <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus.<br />
The British Antarctic Territory (BAT)<br />
Location: The sector <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic below latitude<br />
60°S, between longitudes 20°W <strong>an</strong>d 80°W.<br />
20<br />
Size: Total area <strong>of</strong> 1,709,400 km 2 .<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The coldest, driest <strong>an</strong>d w<strong>in</strong>diest cont<strong>in</strong>ent<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world. The average <strong>an</strong>nual temperature at <strong>the</strong><br />
South Pole is -49°C.<br />
Topography: Only 1.4% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> BAT’s surface is ice-free. The rema<strong>in</strong>der is covered by<br />
a perm<strong>an</strong>ent ice sheet <strong>of</strong> up to three km thick.<br />
Biodiversity: On l<strong>an</strong>d, although vegetation is sparse, <strong>the</strong>re are m<strong>an</strong>y types <strong>of</strong> lichen,<br />
moss <strong>an</strong>d algae. In <strong>the</strong> surround<strong>in</strong>g seas, vast amounts <strong>of</strong> krill provide <strong>the</strong> basis for<br />
rich mar<strong>in</strong>e life. This <strong>in</strong>cludes whales, seals <strong>an</strong>d very large numbers <strong>of</strong> birds<br />
especially petrels <strong>an</strong>d pengu<strong>in</strong>s, <strong>in</strong>habit<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d coastal areas <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Pen<strong>in</strong>sula. 1<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: There is no economic activity <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> BAT; however, tourism<br />
is grow<strong>in</strong>g. The United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Antarctic Heritage Trust (UKAHT) has a team at Port<br />
Lockroy each season. This historic site usually attracts about 6,000 visitors a year.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: There is no <strong>in</strong>digenous population <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Territory. The United<br />
K<strong>in</strong>gdom’s presence is through <strong>the</strong> British Antarctic Survey (BAS), which ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>s<br />
two perm<strong>an</strong>ently m<strong>an</strong>ned scientific stations (at Halley <strong>an</strong>d Ro<strong>the</strong>ra) <strong>an</strong>d three<br />
summer-only stations (at Fossil Bluff on Alex<strong>an</strong>der Isl<strong>an</strong>d, Sky Blue at <strong>the</strong> base <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Antarctic Pen<strong>in</strong>sula <strong>an</strong>d Signy <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> South Orkney Isl<strong>an</strong>ds).<br />
South Georgia<br />
Location: An isolated sub-Antarctic isl<strong>an</strong>d about 1,390 km south east <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Falkl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d about 2,150 km east <strong>of</strong> Tierra del Fuego. In addition to <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong>re are smaller isl<strong>an</strong>ds, islets <strong>an</strong>d rocks.<br />
1 UK Overseas Territories Conservation Forum. n.d. Promot<strong>in</strong>g Biodiversity Conservation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK’s Overseas Territories.<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom: UKOTCF.<br />
Antarctic <strong>an</strong>d sub-Antarctic<br />
The British Antarctic Territory
Size: 3,755 sq km<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: Surrounded by cold waters orig<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g from <strong>the</strong> Antarctic, South Georgia<br />
has a harsher climate th<strong>an</strong> expected for its latitude.<br />
Topography: Very mounta<strong>in</strong>ous, <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d is formed <strong>of</strong> two mounta<strong>in</strong> r<strong>an</strong>ges. The<br />
ma<strong>in</strong> mounta<strong>in</strong> r<strong>an</strong>ge, <strong>the</strong> Allardyce R<strong>an</strong>ge, has its highest po<strong>in</strong>t at Mount Paget<br />
(2,934 m). More th<strong>an</strong> 50% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d is covered by perm<strong>an</strong>ent ice with m<strong>an</strong>y large<br />
glaciers reach<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> sea at <strong>the</strong> head <strong>of</strong> fjords.<br />
Biodiversity: Despite a very limited number <strong>of</strong> flower<strong>in</strong>g pl<strong>an</strong>ts, <strong>the</strong>re is great<br />
diversity <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> mosses <strong>an</strong>d lichens; m<strong>an</strong>y are found nowhere else <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
Several seal species breed on <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d whales are frequently seen <strong>of</strong>fshore.<br />
There are estimated to be more th<strong>an</strong> 30 million birds on South Georgia. It is <strong>an</strong><br />
import<strong>an</strong>t nest<strong>in</strong>g site for <strong>the</strong> largest seabird <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world, <strong>the</strong> w<strong>an</strong>der<strong>in</strong>g albatross<br />
(Diomeda exul<strong>an</strong>s). 2<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: Fisheries. There is a develop<strong>in</strong>g tourism <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: South Georgia has no perm<strong>an</strong>ent population.<br />
The South S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Size: A cha<strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong> 11 volc<strong>an</strong>ic isl<strong>an</strong>ds r<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
length from 1-28 km. The total l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds is 310 sq km.<br />
Location: The Isl<strong>an</strong>ds lie 470 km south east <strong>of</strong><br />
South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d 1,130 km from <strong>the</strong> Antarctic<br />
Cont<strong>in</strong>ent.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The climate is wholly Antarctic.<br />
Topography: The isl<strong>an</strong>ds form a volc<strong>an</strong>ic arc. The larger isl<strong>an</strong>ds are covered <strong>in</strong> ice<br />
year round; some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> smaller isl<strong>an</strong>ds are ice-free <strong>in</strong> summer.<br />
Biodiversity: 16 seabirds <strong>an</strong>d several seal species breed on <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds. A variety <strong>of</strong><br />
bryophytes, lichens <strong>an</strong>d hepatica grow but only one species <strong>of</strong> vascular pl<strong>an</strong>t is<br />
recorded.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: Fisheries.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Un<strong>in</strong>habited. Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> volc<strong>an</strong>oes are still active.<br />
Bermuda<br />
Bermuda <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong><br />
Size: There are 138 isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d islets, however, <strong>the</strong><br />
eight ma<strong>in</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds form a cha<strong>in</strong> about 30 km long,<br />
<strong>in</strong>terconnected by bridges <strong>an</strong>d causeways.<br />
Location: The isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d islets <strong>of</strong> Bermuda lie<br />
along <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn rim <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> summit <strong>of</strong> a<br />
submar<strong>in</strong>e volc<strong>an</strong>ic mounta<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Western<br />
2 UK Overseas Territories Conservation Forum, n.d. Promot<strong>in</strong>g Biodiversity Conservation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK’s Overseas Territories.<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom: UKOTCF.<br />
South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
South S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Bermuda<br />
21
22<br />
Atl<strong>an</strong>tic, ly<strong>in</strong>g 912 km east <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coast <strong>of</strong> North Carol<strong>in</strong>a<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The warm<strong>in</strong>g effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Gulf Stream makes Bermuda <strong>the</strong> most nor<strong>the</strong>rly<br />
group <strong>of</strong> coral isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
Topography: The limestone isl<strong>an</strong>ds sit on <strong>the</strong> largest <strong>of</strong> three volc<strong>an</strong>ic seamounts<br />
formed about 110 million years ago.<br />
Biodiversity: About 250 <strong>of</strong> more th<strong>an</strong> 8,000 pl<strong>an</strong>t <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imal species known from<br />
Bermuda are unique. M<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se are found <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> extensive network <strong>of</strong> submerged<br />
caves <strong>an</strong>d, like <strong>the</strong> Bermuda petrel (Pterodroma cahow), locally known as <strong>the</strong> cahow<br />
are end<strong>an</strong>gered or, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Bermuda sk<strong>in</strong>k (Eumeces longirostris), critically<br />
end<strong>an</strong>gered. 3<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The major <strong>in</strong>dustries are <strong>in</strong>sur<strong>an</strong>ce, re-<strong>in</strong>sur<strong>an</strong>ce,<br />
<strong>in</strong>ternational f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ce, tourism, <strong>an</strong>d light m<strong>an</strong>ufactur<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - 64,000 (2007 estimate).<br />
Anguilla<br />
Size: An archipelago <strong>of</strong> 22 isl<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
is 26 km long <strong>an</strong>d a maximum <strong>of</strong> 5 km wide,<br />
compris<strong>in</strong>g a total <strong>of</strong> 90 sq km.<br />
Location: The isl<strong>an</strong>d is <strong>the</strong> most nor<strong>the</strong>rly <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Leeward Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Eastern Caribbe<strong>an</strong>.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: A tropical, but relatively dry climate,<br />
temperatures moderated by nor<strong>the</strong>ast trade w<strong>in</strong>ds.<br />
Topography: A low <strong>an</strong>d flat corall<strong>in</strong>e isl<strong>an</strong>d formed from limestone <strong>an</strong>d marls<br />
developed on old limestone rocks. The coastl<strong>in</strong>e has s<strong>an</strong>dy beaches <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> south <strong>an</strong>d<br />
rocky cliffs <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> north. Offshore <strong>the</strong>re are extensive coral reefs <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> 17 km<br />
long coral reef along <strong>the</strong> south east coast.<br />
Biodiversity: The unique ecosystems <strong>of</strong> Anguilla <strong>an</strong>d its <strong>of</strong>fshore cays are home 21<br />
species <strong>of</strong> reptile. These <strong>in</strong>clude <strong>the</strong> endemic black lizard (Ameiva corv<strong>in</strong>a) on<br />
Sombrero Isl<strong>an</strong>d, <strong>the</strong> harmless Anguill<strong>an</strong> racer snake (Alsophis rijersmai) <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
Lesser Antille<strong>an</strong> igu<strong>an</strong>a (Igu<strong>an</strong>a delicatissima). About 139 bird species <strong>an</strong>d more th<strong>an</strong><br />
550 pl<strong>an</strong>t species have been recorded, with <strong>the</strong> Anguilla bush (Rondeletia<br />
<strong>an</strong>guillensis) classified as <strong>an</strong> endemic. 4<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The major <strong>in</strong>dustries are tourism, construction,<br />
government service, b<strong>an</strong>ks <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>sur<strong>an</strong>ce.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - 13,600 (2005 estimate).<br />
The British Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds (BVI)<br />
Size: The BVI comprise more th<strong>an</strong> 60 isl<strong>an</strong>ds, islets <strong>an</strong>d cays (some little more th<strong>an</strong><br />
rocks). A total l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> only 153 sq km scattered over some 3,458 sq km <strong>of</strong> sea.<br />
Location: Adjacent to <strong>the</strong> US Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds (USVI) <strong>an</strong>d 96 km east <strong>of</strong> Puerto Rico<br />
3 UK Overseas Territories Conservation Forum, n.d. Promot<strong>in</strong>g Biodiversity Conservation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK’s Overseas Territories.<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom: UKOTCF.<br />
4 Ibid.<br />
Anguilla
<strong>Climate</strong>: A tropical climate moderated by trade w<strong>in</strong>ds.<br />
Topography: Most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds are hilly with<br />
steep slopes, hav<strong>in</strong>g been formed from formerly<br />
submerged volc<strong>an</strong>oes. M<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds have<br />
lush vegetation, s<strong>an</strong>dy beaches, <strong>an</strong>d coral reefs.<br />
Biodiversity: The isl<strong>an</strong>ds support a number <strong>of</strong><br />
endemic <strong>an</strong>d threatened species <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
import<strong>an</strong>ce, such as <strong>the</strong> critically end<strong>an</strong>gered<br />
British Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
endemic Anegada rock igu<strong>an</strong>a (Cyclura p<strong>in</strong>guis). The BVI also possess a number <strong>of</strong><br />
globally signific<strong>an</strong>t pl<strong>an</strong>t species, some <strong>of</strong> which occur only on Anegada, such as<br />
pokemeboy (Acacia <strong>an</strong>egadensis) <strong>an</strong>d wirewist (Metastelma <strong>an</strong>egadense).<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The major <strong>in</strong>dustries are tourism <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial services.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - 27,000 (2005 estimate).<br />
Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Size: The three isl<strong>an</strong>ds have a total l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> 259 sq km. Gr<strong>an</strong>d Caym<strong>an</strong> is<br />
approximately 35 km long with <strong>an</strong> average width <strong>of</strong> 6 km. Caym<strong>an</strong> Brac is about 19<br />
km long with <strong>an</strong> average width <strong>of</strong> one <strong>an</strong>d a quarter miles. Little Caym<strong>an</strong>, a low-ly<strong>in</strong>g<br />
isl<strong>an</strong>d, is approximately 16 km long with <strong>an</strong> average width <strong>of</strong> little more th<strong>an</strong> 1.6 km.<br />
Location: 268 km north-west <strong>of</strong> Jamaica <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> Sea <strong>an</strong>d 240 km south <strong>of</strong> Cuba. Gr<strong>an</strong>d<br />
Caym<strong>an</strong>, which is much larger th<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs are,<br />
lies 128 km to <strong>the</strong> west <strong>of</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Brac <strong>an</strong>d Little<br />
Caym<strong>an</strong>, which are separated from each o<strong>the</strong>r by<br />
a ch<strong>an</strong>nel 8 km wide.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: Tropical climate.<br />
Topography: A huge central limestone outcrop called The Bluff rises along <strong>the</strong><br />
length <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d up to 140 feet. About half <strong>of</strong> Gr<strong>an</strong>d Caym<strong>an</strong>'s area is wetl<strong>an</strong>d.<br />
Offshore reefs <strong>an</strong>d a m<strong>an</strong>grove fr<strong>in</strong>ge surround most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds' coasts.<br />
Biodiversity: Some 17 pl<strong>an</strong>t species, seven reptiles <strong>an</strong>d 30 l<strong>an</strong>d snails are among<br />
those listed as unique to Caym<strong>an</strong>, along with m<strong>an</strong>y unique subspecies <strong>of</strong> forest birds<br />
<strong>an</strong>d spectacular coral reefs. 5<br />
Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The major <strong>in</strong>dustries are tourism <strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong>fshore f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ce.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Some 94% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> population lives on Gr<strong>an</strong>d Caym<strong>an</strong>, with<br />
around 1,822 people resid<strong>in</strong>g on Caym<strong>an</strong> Brac <strong>an</strong>d 115 on Little Caym<strong>an</strong>. Population -<br />
53,252 (2006 estimate).<br />
Montserrat<br />
Size: The isl<strong>an</strong>d is 18 km long <strong>an</strong>d 11 km wide, with a total area <strong>of</strong> 101 sq km.<br />
Location: One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Leeward Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Eastern Caribbe<strong>an</strong>, ly<strong>in</strong>g 43 km<br />
southwest <strong>of</strong> Antigua <strong>an</strong>d 64 km northwest <strong>of</strong> Guadeloupe.<br />
5 UK Overseas Territories Conservation Forum, n.d. Promot<strong>in</strong>g Biodiversity Conservation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK’s Overseas Territories.<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom: UKOTCF.<br />
23
24<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: Tropical climate.<br />
Topography: Entirely volc<strong>an</strong>ic <strong>an</strong>d very<br />
mounta<strong>in</strong>ous. The coastl<strong>in</strong>e is rugged <strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong>fers<br />
no all-wea<strong>the</strong>r harbour, although <strong>the</strong>re are several<br />
<strong>an</strong>chorages <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> lee <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d sheltered from<br />
<strong>the</strong> prevail<strong>in</strong>g trade w<strong>in</strong>ds. In 1995, <strong>the</strong> Soufriere<br />
Montserrat<br />
Hills volc<strong>an</strong>o <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> south <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d became<br />
active for <strong>the</strong> first time <strong>in</strong> 350 years. The volc<strong>an</strong>o has rema<strong>in</strong>ed active s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong>n with<br />
pyroclastic flows, a collapse <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> dome <strong>in</strong> 2003 <strong>an</strong>d renewed dome growth. S<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
April 2007, growth <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> current volc<strong>an</strong>ic dome has slowed <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> latest scientific<br />
advice is that <strong>the</strong> volc<strong>an</strong>o is <strong>in</strong> a state <strong>of</strong> ‘pause’, but with <strong>the</strong> d<strong>an</strong>ger <strong>of</strong> a large hot<br />
dome rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Biodiversity: Despite its small size, Montserrat supports at least 795 native pl<strong>an</strong>t<br />
species, 12 restricted r<strong>an</strong>ge species <strong>of</strong> birds <strong>an</strong>d 1,241 <strong>in</strong>vertebrates, which <strong>in</strong>clude 718<br />
beetles. Endemic to Montserrat are <strong>the</strong> Montserrat oriole (Icteris oberis) <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
galliwasp (Diploglossus montisserrati), a lizard. The end<strong>an</strong>gered <strong>an</strong>d edible<br />
'mounta<strong>in</strong> chicken' (Leptodactylus fallax), a frog, is found only on Montserrat <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Dom<strong>in</strong>ica. Several o<strong>the</strong>r species are restricted to Montserrat <strong>an</strong>d some nearby<br />
isl<strong>an</strong>ds. 6<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The limited economic activity on <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>cludes<br />
m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d quarry<strong>in</strong>g, construction, f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial <strong>an</strong>d pr<strong>of</strong>essional services <strong>an</strong>d tourism<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - 4,655 (2006 estimate).<br />
The Turks <strong>an</strong>d Caicos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds (TCI)<br />
Size: The TCI comprise some 40 isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d cays split <strong>in</strong>to two groups by a deepwater<br />
ch<strong>an</strong>nel. The total l<strong>an</strong>d area is 430 sq km.<br />
Location: South-east <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Bahamas cha<strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>d 44 km north <strong>of</strong> Haiti <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Dom<strong>in</strong>ic<strong>an</strong><br />
Republic, <strong>an</strong>d 920 km south-east <strong>of</strong> Miami.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The climate is warm throughout <strong>the</strong> year<br />
but tempered by const<strong>an</strong>t trade w<strong>in</strong>ds.<br />
Topography: Limited ra<strong>in</strong>fall plus poor soil <strong>an</strong>d a Turks <strong>an</strong>d Caicos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
limestone base restrict <strong>the</strong> possibilities for agricultural development. The isl<strong>an</strong>ds are<br />
rocky, semi-barren <strong>an</strong>d covered with cacti <strong>an</strong>d thorny acacia trees. There are 200<br />
miles <strong>of</strong> white beaches.<br />
Biodiversity: More th<strong>an</strong> 30 protected areas have been designated to conserve <strong>the</strong><br />
delicate ecosystems <strong>an</strong>d wildlife habitats <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> creeks, s<strong>an</strong>d flats, lagoons, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
marshy wetl<strong>an</strong>ds. The isl<strong>an</strong>ds provide a home for at least 14 unique pl<strong>an</strong>ts, reptiles,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong> unknown number <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>vertebrates, as well as <strong>the</strong> vulnerable reddish egret<br />
(Egretta rufescens) <strong>an</strong>d West Indi<strong>an</strong> whistl<strong>in</strong>g duck (Dendrocygna arborea).<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The major <strong>in</strong>dustries are tourism, property development,<br />
real estate, <strong>in</strong>ternational f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ce <strong>an</strong>d fish<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
6 Young, R.P. (ed). 2008. A biodiversity assessment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Centre Hills, Montserrat. Durrell Conservation Monograph No.1,<br />
Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust, Jersey, Ch<strong>an</strong>nel Isl<strong>an</strong>ds
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - 32,000 (2006 census estimate). Only six <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
isl<strong>an</strong>ds are perm<strong>an</strong>ently <strong>in</strong>habited.<br />
Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong><br />
British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory (BIOT)<br />
Size: An archipelago <strong>of</strong> five atolls conta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g 55<br />
isl<strong>an</strong>ds covers some 54,400 sq km <strong>of</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>. The<br />
isl<strong>an</strong>ds have a l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> only 46 sq km <strong>an</strong>d<br />
698km <strong>of</strong> coastl<strong>in</strong>e. Diego Garcia, <strong>the</strong> largest <strong>an</strong>d<br />
most sou<strong>the</strong>rly isl<strong>an</strong>d, is 27 sq km.<br />
Location: The Territory is <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> centre <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong>. The sou<strong>the</strong>rnmost po<strong>in</strong>t <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Laccadive-Maldive-Chagos ridge,<br />
between 5-7 °S, lies about 1,770 km east <strong>of</strong> Mahe, <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Seychelles.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The climate is tropical oce<strong>an</strong>ic type <strong>an</strong>d moderated by trade w<strong>in</strong>ds.<br />
Topography: The terra<strong>in</strong> is flat <strong>an</strong>d low <strong>an</strong>d most areas do not exceed two metres <strong>in</strong><br />
elevation.<br />
Biodiversity: With a huge network <strong>of</strong> coral reefs <strong>the</strong> Territory supports 1.5% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
total global area <strong>of</strong> reefs (<strong>JNCC</strong>, 1999). The isl<strong>an</strong>ds also provide nest<strong>in</strong>g sites for <strong>the</strong><br />
green (Chelonia mydas) <strong>an</strong>d hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) turtles, <strong>an</strong>d very<br />
large numbers <strong>of</strong> seabirds.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: There is no civili<strong>an</strong> air service. There are no economic,<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustrial or agricultural activities on <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds. UK <strong>an</strong>d US military personnel <strong>an</strong>d<br />
civili<strong>an</strong> contract employees, mostly recruited from Mauritius <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Philipp<strong>in</strong>es,<br />
carry out construction projects <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r services <strong>in</strong> support <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> US defence<br />
facility <strong>in</strong> Diego Garcia. These numbered approximately 4,000 persons (2004<br />
estimate).<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: The isolation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> BIOT <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> low level <strong>of</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> impact,<br />
make it ideal for <strong>the</strong> study <strong>of</strong> tropical mar<strong>in</strong>e ecology, undistorted by pollution.<br />
Gibraltar<br />
Size: Total area <strong>of</strong> 6.5 sq km.<br />
Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong><br />
Location: Border<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Strait <strong>of</strong> Gibraltar on <strong>the</strong><br />
sou<strong>the</strong>rn coast <strong>of</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>. The Strait <strong>of</strong> Gibraltar<br />
l<strong>in</strong>ks <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> Sea <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> North Atl<strong>an</strong>tic<br />
Oce<strong>an</strong>.<br />
British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory<br />
Gibraltar<br />
Topography: Formed <strong>of</strong> Jurassic limestone, <strong>the</strong><br />
isl<strong>an</strong>d has a sheer cliff on <strong>the</strong> eastern side, slopes more gently to <strong>the</strong> west <strong>an</strong>d<br />
consists largely <strong>of</strong> scrub <strong>an</strong>d patches <strong>of</strong> woodl<strong>an</strong>d, with a rocky shorel<strong>in</strong>e.<br />
Biodiversity: Species conf<strong>in</strong>ed to Gibraltar <strong>in</strong>clude sea-slugs, snails <strong>an</strong>d pl<strong>an</strong>ts.<br />
With<strong>in</strong> Europe, Barbary macaques (Macaca sylv<strong>an</strong>us) are unique to Gibraltar.<br />
25
26<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: Gibraltar has a thriv<strong>in</strong>g, if narrowly based, economy<br />
dom<strong>in</strong>ated by three ma<strong>in</strong> sectors – f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial services, shipp<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d tourism (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
retail for visitors). The tourism <strong>in</strong>dustry has grown rapidly over <strong>the</strong> past 15 years <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Gibraltar now receives <strong>in</strong> excess <strong>of</strong> 7.8 million visitors per <strong>an</strong>num, who spend more<br />
th<strong>an</strong> GBP170 million.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - 28,779 (Abstract <strong>of</strong> Statistics 2005).<br />
The Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs) <strong>of</strong> Akrotiri <strong>an</strong>d Dhekelia<br />
[usually referred to as Western Sovereign Base Area (WSBA) <strong>an</strong>d Eastern Sovereign Base Area (ESBA)]<br />
Size: The SBAs cover 3% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> Cyprus, a total <strong>of</strong> 255 sq km miles (47.5<br />
at Akrotiri <strong>an</strong>d 50.5 at Dhekelia).<br />
Location: Situated at two locations with<strong>in</strong> Cyprus.<br />
Biodiversity: Akrotiri salt lake provides a w<strong>in</strong>ter<strong>in</strong>g<br />
area for up to 30,000 greater flam<strong>in</strong>gos<br />
(Phoenicopterus roseus) <strong>an</strong>d is <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t<br />
stag<strong>in</strong>g area for cr<strong>an</strong>es, migr<strong>an</strong>t waders (Charodrii)<br />
<strong>an</strong>d birds <strong>of</strong> prey, <strong>in</strong> particular. Rare endemic Akrotiri <strong>an</strong>d Dhekelia use <strong>the</strong> Union Flag<br />
orchids <strong>an</strong>d various reptiles <strong>an</strong>d amphibi<strong>an</strong>s are also found with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> bases, as well<br />
as m<strong>an</strong>y migr<strong>an</strong>t songbirds.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The SBAs are primarily required as military bases <strong>an</strong>d<br />
not ord<strong>in</strong>ary dependent territories.<br />
Ascension 7<br />
Size: 97 sq km<br />
South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic<br />
Location: Ascension lies at latitude 7°7’S <strong>an</strong>d<br />
longitude 14°22’W, 1,296 km to <strong>the</strong> north west <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> nearest l<strong>an</strong>d – <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong> St. Helena. The<br />
nearest cont<strong>in</strong>ental l<strong>an</strong>d Liberia 1,504 km to <strong>the</strong><br />
north north-east.<br />
Ascension uses <strong>the</strong> Union Flag<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The climate <strong>of</strong> Ascension is dry, tropical <strong>an</strong>d oce<strong>an</strong>ic with little seasonal<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Temperatures vary from 31°C to 27°C. moderated by <strong>the</strong> South East Trade<br />
w<strong>in</strong>ds. Ra<strong>in</strong>fall is variable but showers fall throughout <strong>the</strong> year.<br />
Topography: The isl<strong>an</strong>d is a rocky peak <strong>of</strong> volc<strong>an</strong>ic orig<strong>in</strong> with 44 dist<strong>in</strong>ct craters.<br />
The lower slopes <strong>an</strong>d western side are made up <strong>of</strong> volc<strong>an</strong>ic ash with little vegetation.<br />
Green Mounta<strong>in</strong>, which rises to a height <strong>of</strong> 859 m at <strong>the</strong> centre <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d, is lush<br />
<strong>an</strong>d green.<br />
Biodiversity: Much <strong>of</strong> Ascension's global conservation import<strong>an</strong>ce comes from <strong>the</strong><br />
isl<strong>an</strong>d's remoteness. It has 11 species <strong>of</strong> breed<strong>in</strong>g seabird, one <strong>of</strong> which, <strong>the</strong><br />
Ascension Isl<strong>an</strong>d frigate bird (Fregata Aquila) is endemic. There are six endemic<br />
species <strong>of</strong> terrestrial pl<strong>an</strong>ts, n<strong>in</strong>e endemic mar<strong>in</strong>e fish <strong>an</strong>d two endemic shellfish. The<br />
7 Ashmole, P <strong>an</strong>d M. Ashmole. 2000. St. Helena <strong>an</strong>d Ascension Isl<strong>an</strong>d: A Natural History. Anthony Nelson. Oswestry.
isl<strong>an</strong>d also has one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most import<strong>an</strong>t breed<strong>in</strong>g green turtle (Chelonia mydas)<br />
populations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: Ascension has a USAF <strong>an</strong>d RAF military base <strong>an</strong>d hosts<br />
a number <strong>of</strong> communication comp<strong>an</strong>ies.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Civili<strong>an</strong>s contracted from St. Helena, <strong>the</strong> UK <strong>an</strong>d USA number<br />
approximately 1,000.<br />
The Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds 8<br />
Size: The Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds have a total l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> just over 120,000 ha which forms<br />
<strong>an</strong> archipelago <strong>of</strong> two ma<strong>in</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds, East <strong>an</strong>d West Falkl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d about 780 smaller<br />
isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d islets.<br />
Location: Situated <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> south-west region <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic Oce<strong>an</strong> approximately 600km east <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>l<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong> South America, between latitudes<br />
51°S <strong>an</strong>d 53°S, <strong>an</strong>d longitudes 57°W <strong>an</strong>d 62°W.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds have a cool<br />
temperate oce<strong>an</strong>ic climate, dom<strong>in</strong>ated by westerly<br />
w<strong>in</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d low <strong>an</strong>nual ra<strong>in</strong>fall (450-600 mm/year).<br />
Topography: The Isl<strong>an</strong>ds are generally rugged <strong>an</strong>d hilly – <strong>the</strong> highest po<strong>in</strong>ts are<br />
Mount Usborne (705 m) on East Falkl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d Mount Adam (700 m) on West Falkl<strong>an</strong>d.<br />
Biodiversity: The Falkl<strong>an</strong>ds have a wealth <strong>of</strong> biodiversity. Of <strong>the</strong> 363 vascular flora<br />
species, 171 species are native <strong>an</strong>d 13 endemic. There are 13 recorded terrestrial<br />
endemic <strong>in</strong>vertebrates. The Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds support globally signific<strong>an</strong>t numbers <strong>of</strong> a<br />
number <strong>of</strong> bird species as well as two endemic species <strong>an</strong>d 14 sub-species. These<br />
<strong>in</strong>clude vast colonies <strong>of</strong> seabirds. More th<strong>an</strong> 70% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world population <strong>of</strong> blackbrowed<br />
albatrosses (Diomedea mel<strong>an</strong>ophris) is found here. The <strong>in</strong>shore <strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong>fshore<br />
environment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds support a variety <strong>of</strong> whale, dolph<strong>in</strong>, seal <strong>an</strong>d sea<br />
lion species, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g at least eleven species <strong>of</strong> cetace<strong>an</strong>s listed as <strong>of</strong> global<br />
conservation concern on <strong>the</strong> IUCN red list.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: Agriculture, fish<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d tourism.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - approximately 2,900.<br />
St. Helena 9<br />
The Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Size: 17 km long <strong>an</strong>d 10 km wide at its largest po<strong>in</strong>t, with a l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> 122 sq km<br />
Location: Approximately 1,920 km from <strong>the</strong> south-west coast <strong>of</strong> Africa <strong>an</strong>d 2,900 km<br />
east <strong>of</strong> South America.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: St. Helena has a sub-tropical but oce<strong>an</strong>ic climate, tempered by <strong>the</strong> South-<br />
East Trade w<strong>in</strong>ds. Temperature r<strong>an</strong>ges from 14°C to 27°C .<br />
Topography: A volc<strong>an</strong>ic isl<strong>an</strong>d with a high central ridge. The highest po<strong>in</strong>t, Di<strong>an</strong>a’s<br />
Peak, rises to 823 m above sea level.<br />
8 Otley H, G. Munro, A. Clausen, <strong>an</strong>d B. Ingham. 2008. Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds State <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Environment Report 2008. Falkl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government <strong>an</strong>d Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Conservation, St<strong>an</strong>ley.<br />
9 Ashmole, P <strong>an</strong>d M. Ashmole. 2000. St. Helena <strong>an</strong>d Ascension Isl<strong>an</strong>d: A Natural History. Anthony Nelson. Oswestry<br />
27
28<br />
Biodiversity: St. Helena's isolated position <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic has given rise to <strong>an</strong> unusual <strong>an</strong>d<br />
remarkable l<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e flora <strong>an</strong>d fauna. The<br />
native flora consist <strong>of</strong> about 40 species, 49 <strong>of</strong><br />
which are endemic (10 genera). The precise<br />
number <strong>of</strong> endemic <strong>in</strong>vertebrates is uncerta<strong>in</strong>,<br />
however <strong>of</strong> about 1,110 l<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>vertebrates, some<br />
St Helena<br />
400 are unique to St. Helena. At least six unique l<strong>an</strong>d birds once occurred on St.<br />
Helena, only one, <strong>the</strong> wire bird (Charadrius s<strong>an</strong>ctaehelenae), survives today. There<br />
are 10 endemic, <strong>in</strong>shore fish species <strong>an</strong>d 16 more are found only here <strong>an</strong>d at<br />
Ascension. At least five species <strong>of</strong> mar<strong>in</strong>e mammals are known to occur <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
waters around St. Helena.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The ma<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustries are fisheries, tourism <strong>an</strong>d<br />
agriculture.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population - 4,000. St. Helena is currently accessible only by<br />
sea, but <strong>the</strong>re are pl<strong>an</strong>s to build <strong>an</strong> airport <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> near future.<br />
Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha 10<br />
Size: An area <strong>of</strong> 178 sq km. The Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha<br />
group comprises six isl<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g Trist<strong>an</strong> da<br />
Cunha <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> neighbour<strong>in</strong>g isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>of</strong><br />
Night<strong>in</strong>gale, Inaccessible <strong>an</strong>d Gough.<br />
Location: Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha is <strong>the</strong> most remote<br />
<strong>in</strong>habited isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world ly<strong>in</strong>g 2,778 km west<br />
<strong>of</strong> Cape Town <strong>an</strong>d 3,947 km from South America.<br />
Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The climate is cool temperate oce<strong>an</strong>ic but varies between isl<strong>an</strong>ds. Me<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>nual temperatures vary similarly <strong>an</strong>d r<strong>an</strong>ge from 14.5°C to 11.3°C.<br />
Topography: The isl<strong>an</strong>ds are volc<strong>an</strong>ic, <strong>the</strong> central peak <strong>in</strong> Trist<strong>an</strong> rises to 2,060 m<br />
above sea level.<br />
Biodiversity: At least 212 pl<strong>an</strong>t taxa have been recorded, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g 35 ferns <strong>an</strong>d 58<br />
native flower<strong>in</strong>g pl<strong>an</strong>ts. Seals are <strong>the</strong> only native breed<strong>in</strong>g mammals. The isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
support unique <strong>in</strong>digenous l<strong>an</strong>d-birds, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Gough bunt<strong>in</strong>g (Rowettia<br />
goughensis) <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> rare Inaccessible rail (Atl<strong>an</strong>tisia rogersi), <strong>the</strong> smallest flightless<br />
bird <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world. Millions <strong>of</strong> seabirds, such as <strong>the</strong> Atl<strong>an</strong>tic yellow-nosed albatross<br />
(Thalassarche chlororhynchos) <strong>an</strong>d great shearwater (Puff<strong>in</strong>is gravis), breed - as do<br />
fur seals <strong>an</strong>d eleph<strong>an</strong>t seals. Fourteen <strong>of</strong> Trist<strong>an</strong>’s bird species are <strong>of</strong> global concern<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> critically end<strong>an</strong>gered Trist<strong>an</strong> albatross (Diomedea dabbenena).<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The isl<strong>an</strong>d relies on <strong>in</strong>come from fish<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d stamp <strong>an</strong>d<br />
co<strong>in</strong> sales.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Trist<strong>an</strong> is a dependency <strong>of</strong> St. Helena. The Settlement <strong>of</strong><br />
Ed<strong>in</strong>burgh <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Seven Seas <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Northwest is its only <strong>in</strong>habited area. Gough <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Inaccessible isl<strong>an</strong>ds are a World Heritage Site. Population – 275.<br />
10 S<strong>an</strong>ders, S.M. (ed.). 2006. Import<strong>an</strong>t Bird Areas <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Overseas Territories. S<strong>an</strong>dy, UK:RSPB
Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>d 11<br />
South Pacific<br />
Size: The Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>d group is comprised <strong>of</strong><br />
four small isl<strong>an</strong>ds. The total l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>ds is 4,516 ha. The largest isl<strong>an</strong>d is<br />
Henderson 3,720 ha, while Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>d is 660<br />
ha.<br />
Location: Situated <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> South Pacific Oce<strong>an</strong>,<br />
Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
Pitcairn is roughly 1,570 km West <strong>of</strong> Easter Isl<strong>an</strong>d; 5,350 km east north-east <strong>of</strong> its<br />
adm<strong>in</strong>istrative headquarters <strong>in</strong> Auckl<strong>an</strong>d, New Zeal<strong>an</strong>d.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong>: The temperature r<strong>an</strong>ges from 13°C to 28°C with a me<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>nual ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>of</strong><br />
approximately 1,716 mm, with considerable <strong>an</strong>nual variation.<br />
Topography: Pitcairn is volc<strong>an</strong>ic; Henderson, Oeno, <strong>an</strong>d Ducie are coral atolls.<br />
Biodiversity: Henderson <strong>an</strong>d Pitcairn support richer floras with a high number <strong>of</strong><br />
endemic <strong>an</strong>d end<strong>an</strong>gered species. There are n<strong>in</strong>e species <strong>of</strong> birds <strong>of</strong> global<br />
concern. In addition, more th<strong>an</strong> 90% cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world’s population <strong>of</strong> Murphy’s<br />
petrels (Pterodroma ultima) nest on Ducie, <strong>an</strong>d Henderson is probably <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>in</strong>cipal<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g site for <strong>the</strong> end<strong>an</strong>gered Henderson petrel (Pterodroma atrata).<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong> economic activities: The economy <strong>of</strong> Pitcairn is largely based on subsistence<br />
fish<strong>in</strong>g, horticulture, <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> sale <strong>of</strong> h<strong>an</strong>dicrafts <strong>an</strong>d postage stamps. The Pitcairn<br />
Government is try<strong>in</strong>g to boost revenue through <strong>the</strong> sale <strong>of</strong> .pn doma<strong>in</strong> names, honey<br />
production <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g tourist arrivals.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>formation: Population – 47. Henderson is a World Heritage Site.<br />
11 Smyth, N. And Waldron, S. (<strong>in</strong> prep) Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Environment M<strong>an</strong>agement Pl<strong>an</strong>. Prepared for <strong>the</strong> UK Foreign <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Commonwealth Office by BEC Consult<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d Pitcairn Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d S<strong>an</strong>ders, S.M.( ed.). 2006. Import<strong>an</strong>t Bird Areas <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Overseas Territories. S<strong>an</strong>dy, UK:RSPB<br />
Chapter summary<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most press<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d complex issues <strong>of</strong> our time. It is one<br />
that <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong>not afford to ignore. Although <strong>the</strong> territories contribute very little to <strong>the</strong><br />
underly<strong>in</strong>g causes <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, <strong>the</strong>y are particularly vulnerable to its effects.<br />
The <strong>UKOTs</strong> have much to lose: m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m are small isl<strong>an</strong>ds with a high level <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>herent vulnerability to natural <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r hazards. The effects <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>crease this vulnerability.<br />
Even if greenhouse gas emissions were to stop today, <strong>the</strong> effects would still be felt<br />
because <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> damage that has already been done to <strong>the</strong> global climate system.<br />
Notwithst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties about climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d to what extent <strong>the</strong>se<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s may occur, <strong>the</strong>re is a strong case for <strong>UKOTs</strong> to take swift <strong>an</strong>d decisive action<br />
to prepare for, <strong>an</strong>d respond to, its effects on nature <strong>an</strong>d society. Adapt<strong>in</strong>g to climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is <strong>an</strong> opportunity for <strong>UKOTs</strong> to build resilience <strong>an</strong>d move towards more susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
forms <strong>of</strong> development.<br />
29
Why climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> matters<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
2<br />
2.1 What is climate?<br />
Underst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g climate is a useful start<strong>in</strong>g<br />
po<strong>in</strong>t for underst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> vs. wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
The words ‘climate’ <strong>an</strong>d ‘wea<strong>the</strong>r’ are<br />
sometimes used <strong>in</strong>ter<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>ably, but <strong>the</strong>y<br />
are <strong>in</strong> fact different, though related, phenomena.<br />
Wea<strong>the</strong>r refers to short-term,<br />
atmospheric conditions, climate to longterm<br />
ones. Wea<strong>the</strong>r is measured by temperature,<br />
humidity, w<strong>in</strong>d speed,<br />
atmospheric pressure, cloud<strong>in</strong>ess, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
precipitation. <strong>Climate</strong> is <strong>the</strong> average, or<br />
typical, wea<strong>the</strong>r conditions <strong>of</strong> a given area<br />
observed over a long period <strong>of</strong> time, usually<br />
30 years or more.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> zones, are dist<strong>in</strong>guished from<br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r by <strong>the</strong>ir prevail<strong>in</strong>g temperature<br />
<strong>an</strong>d precipitation, which have a natural<br />
r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>an</strong>d variability with<strong>in</strong> zones.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> variations c<strong>an</strong> occur from year to<br />
year, one decade to <strong>an</strong>o<strong>the</strong>r, one century<br />
to <strong>an</strong>o<strong>the</strong>r, or <strong>an</strong>y longer time scale.<br />
Wea<strong>the</strong>r conditions may <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> quickly,<br />
for example, it may be sunny <strong>an</strong>d dry one<br />
day <strong>an</strong>d ra<strong>in</strong>y <strong>an</strong>d cool <strong>the</strong> next. <strong>Climate</strong>,<br />
on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r h<strong>an</strong>d, is slower to <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, but<br />
<strong>the</strong> implications <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> are far reach<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
With<strong>in</strong> each climate zone, <strong>the</strong> people,<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals are adapted to <strong>the</strong><br />
r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> conditions found <strong>the</strong>re. The<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals that are native to <strong>the</strong><br />
30<br />
Unpack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>:<br />
present <strong>an</strong>d<br />
future impacts<br />
What c<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> do<br />
about climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>?<br />
Unpack<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
tropical climate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Turks <strong>an</strong>d Caicos<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds thrive <strong>the</strong>re, but would f<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
Antarctic climate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> British Antarctic<br />
Territory hostile <strong>an</strong>d vice versa. However,<br />
when <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> occurs with<strong>in</strong> a climate<br />
zone, hum<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d ecological systems are<br />
challenged by conditions that are on <strong>the</strong><br />
edge <strong>of</strong>, or outside, <strong>the</strong> normal r<strong>an</strong>ge.<br />
Over time, this c<strong>an</strong> put stress on systems<br />
or modify <strong>the</strong>m.<br />
People <strong>an</strong>d climate<br />
Hum<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d biological systems are so <strong>in</strong>terl<strong>in</strong>ked<br />
that a <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> one area <strong>of</strong> ei<strong>the</strong>r<br />
system has knock-on effects on o<strong>the</strong>rs.<br />
Hum<strong>an</strong> activity is greatly <strong>in</strong>fluenced by climate.<br />
“<strong>Climate</strong> shapes ecosystems <strong>an</strong>d<br />
species, determ<strong>in</strong>es <strong>the</strong> types <strong>of</strong> eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />
structures we build (from houses to<br />
bridges), <strong>an</strong>d affects our culture, our<br />
moods, our leisure pursuits” (Hulme, 2006).<br />
2.2 What <strong>in</strong>fluences<br />
climate?<br />
The way<br />
forward<br />
Several geographic factors <strong>in</strong>fluence climate,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g latitude <strong>an</strong>d altitude, cont<strong>in</strong>entality,<br />
dist<strong>an</strong>ce from <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>,<br />
mounta<strong>in</strong> barriers, solar radiation, oce<strong>an</strong><br />
currents, volc<strong>an</strong>ic activity, <strong>an</strong>d prevail<strong>in</strong>g<br />
w<strong>in</strong>ds. It is also <strong>in</strong>fluenced by <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Earth’s orbit around <strong>the</strong> sun <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
energy <strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>et receives from <strong>the</strong> sun. All<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se geographic factors are fairly const<strong>an</strong>t,<br />
however, where <strong>the</strong>re are <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s,<br />
<strong>the</strong>se take place over <strong>the</strong> long term.
The <strong>in</strong>teraction between <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> atmosphere (oce<strong>an</strong>-atmosphere<br />
dynamics), has <strong>an</strong> impact on climate as<br />
well. One such phenomenon that has a<br />
major <strong>in</strong>fluence on climate <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> is<br />
<strong>the</strong> El Niño - Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oscillation<br />
(ENSO) or El Niño, as <strong>the</strong> phenomenon is<br />
commonly known.<br />
El Niño/La Niña <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
Oscillation<br />
El Niño <strong>an</strong>d La Niña are experienced worldwide<br />
(Figure 2). El Niño is <strong>the</strong> result <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>teraction between <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> result<strong>in</strong>g<br />
effect on global climate. It is caused when<br />
Box 3. Global cool<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
2007 – 2008?<br />
The cool<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>s experienced<br />
<strong>in</strong> late 2007 through 2008 is due to a<br />
La Niña event. Because <strong>of</strong> La Niña,<br />
2008 has been forecast to be cooler<br />
th<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong> previous seven years. But scientists<br />
have been quick to po<strong>in</strong>t out<br />
that this cool<strong>in</strong>g is due to <strong>the</strong> strength<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> La Niña event, <strong>an</strong>d not because<br />
global warm<strong>in</strong>g or climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> has<br />
gone away. The me<strong>an</strong> temperature is<br />
still expected to be above that <strong>of</strong> 2000.<br />
Figure 2. Expected seasonal effects <strong>of</strong> El Niño (warm episodes) across <strong>the</strong> globe dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
December–February (top) <strong>an</strong>d expected seasonal effects <strong>of</strong> La Niña (cold episodes) dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
same time period (bottom). Source: <strong>Climate</strong> Prediction Center, NOAA<br />
31
Number <strong>of</strong> reef prov<strong>in</strong>ces with<br />
moderate to severe bleach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> trade w<strong>in</strong>ds that blow from east to west<br />
along <strong>the</strong> equator <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific decrease <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity (this is <strong>the</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oscillation)<br />
<strong>an</strong>d br<strong>in</strong>g about <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong><br />
temperature. This <strong>in</strong> turn affects where<br />
storms occur along <strong>the</strong> equator <strong>an</strong>d triggers<br />
ripple effects worldwide.<br />
Under normal conditions, <strong>the</strong> westward<br />
blow<strong>in</strong>g w<strong>in</strong>ds push <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>’s water<br />
towards western Pacific. In <strong>the</strong> deeper<br />
eastern Pacific, cold water is pulled from <strong>the</strong><br />
oce<strong>an</strong>’s depths to replace <strong>the</strong> water that is<br />
blown west. The normal oce<strong>an</strong> temperature<br />
bal<strong>an</strong>ce is <strong>the</strong>refore warm water (30°C) <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> west <strong>an</strong>d cold water (22°C) <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> east.<br />
El Niño events occur about every two to<br />
eight years <strong>an</strong>d are considered a normal<br />
phenomenon. In <strong>an</strong> El Niño event, <strong>the</strong><br />
trade w<strong>in</strong>ds weaken <strong>an</strong>d less water is<br />
pushed westwards. Cold water <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
eastern Pacific is not pulled up, mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> water <strong>in</strong> that part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong> warmer<br />
th<strong>an</strong> usual. The warmer water contributes<br />
to <strong>the</strong> weaken<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> w<strong>in</strong>ds <strong>in</strong> a self-perpetuat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
or positive feedback cycle.<br />
El Niño events generally cause droughts <strong>in</strong><br />
several regions, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>,<br />
32<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
1978<br />
1979<br />
1980<br />
1981<br />
1982<br />
1983<br />
1984<br />
1985<br />
1986<br />
1987<br />
1988<br />
1989<br />
1990<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
Year<br />
Figure 3. Number <strong>of</strong> reef prov<strong>in</strong>ces bleach<strong>in</strong>g s<strong>in</strong>ce 1978.<br />
Arrows <strong>in</strong>dicate strong El N<strong>in</strong>o years. While some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
trend c<strong>an</strong> be expla<strong>in</strong>ed by observer bias, this factor does<br />
not completely expla<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g trend with time.<br />
Source: Hoegh-Guldberg 1999<br />
<strong>the</strong> western Pacific, Sou<strong>the</strong>ast<br />
Asia <strong>an</strong>d Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Africa. They<br />
are also associated with coral<br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g, a phenomenon<br />
brought about by high water<br />
temperatures that cause corals<br />
to lose <strong>the</strong> symbiotic algae that<br />
boost <strong>the</strong>ir metabolism, respiration,<br />
waste excretion <strong>an</strong>d growth<br />
rate. Very severe coral<br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g occurred <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> tropical<br />
Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> 1998, <strong>the</strong><br />
hottest year on record to date<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> year <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> strongest El<br />
Niño recorded. That year, oce<strong>an</strong><br />
temperatures were between 3°C<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 5°C above normal (World<br />
Wildlife Fund <strong>an</strong>d McG<strong>in</strong>ley,<br />
2007).<br />
El Niño events are generally followed by a<br />
period <strong>of</strong> opposite conditions called La<br />
Niña. In La Niña conditions, <strong>the</strong> water <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
eastern Pacific is cooler <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> w<strong>in</strong>ds that<br />
blow from east to west are stronger th<strong>an</strong><br />
normal. In most locations, <strong>the</strong> phenomenon<br />
is associated with <strong>in</strong>creased ra<strong>in</strong>fall. Prelim<strong>in</strong>ary<br />
f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs suggest that climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
will cause El Niño events to <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> frequency.<br />
When <strong>the</strong> El Niño events are superimposed<br />
on <strong>the</strong> upward climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced temperature trends, phenomena<br />
such as coral bleach<strong>in</strong>g will<br />
become more frequent There appears to<br />
be a correlation between strong El N<strong>in</strong>o<br />
events <strong>an</strong>d severe coral bleach<strong>in</strong>g. (Figure<br />
3). It has been suggested that bleach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
may become <strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>nual event by 2020<br />
(Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999).<br />
2.3 The science beh<strong>in</strong>d<br />
global climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
What is climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>?<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is <strong>an</strong>y signific<strong>an</strong>t modification<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> climate <strong>of</strong> a zone or region<br />
over time. There are natural processes <strong>of</strong><br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> that have been tak<strong>in</strong>g
place s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> Earth beg<strong>an</strong> evolv<strong>in</strong>g more<br />
th<strong>an</strong> four billion years ago. These natural<br />
processes <strong>in</strong>clude such th<strong>in</strong>gs as <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth’s orbit, <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> sun <strong>in</strong>tensity,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d volc<strong>an</strong>ic eruptions (which alter<br />
atmospheric gases). Ice ages are one<br />
example <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> brought about<br />
by natural causes. Scientists believe <strong>the</strong><br />
period <strong>of</strong> global cool<strong>in</strong>g between <strong>the</strong> 1400s<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 1700s known as “The Little Ice Age”<br />
was <strong>the</strong> result <strong>of</strong> weaken<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sun’s<br />
<strong>in</strong>tensity.<br />
The present-day global concern about climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, however, is not about natural<br />
processes. It is ra<strong>the</strong>r about <strong>the</strong><br />
unprecedented <strong>an</strong>d accelerated <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth’s temperature over <strong>the</strong> past 60<br />
to 100 years, which has its roots <strong>in</strong> hum<strong>an</strong><br />
activity that cont<strong>in</strong>ues to grow (Solomon et<br />
al., 2007). Scientific evidence notwithst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
how much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> observed<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is due to hum<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>fluence has<br />
generated a lot <strong>of</strong> debate; what is not <strong>in</strong><br />
doubt is that <strong>the</strong> current rate <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is unusual <strong>an</strong>d is l<strong>in</strong>ked to how<br />
hum<strong>an</strong>s use <strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>et.<br />
The greenhouse effect<br />
The <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> that is now tak<strong>in</strong>g place <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
global climate has its roots <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensification<br />
<strong>of</strong> a natural phenomenon, <strong>the</strong><br />
greenhouse effect. The atmosphere is<br />
made up <strong>of</strong> water vapour, dust particles<br />
Figure 4. Gases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
Nitrogen 78%<br />
Oxygen 21%<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r gases 1%<br />
Figure 5. The heat-trapp<strong>in</strong>g ability <strong>of</strong> a<br />
greenhouse is <strong>in</strong>fluenced by a number <strong>of</strong><br />
factors, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> tr<strong>an</strong>sparency <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
greenhouse cover, <strong>an</strong>d colour <strong>an</strong>d type <strong>of</strong><br />
surfaces <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> greenhouse.<br />
<strong>an</strong>d gases. The ma<strong>in</strong> gases are nitrogen<br />
(78 per cent) <strong>an</strong>d oxygen (21 per cent).<br />
Argon, <strong>an</strong>d small amounts <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r gases,<br />
such as carbon dioxide <strong>an</strong>d trace amounts<br />
<strong>of</strong> hydrogen, meth<strong>an</strong>e, ozone, carbon<br />
monoxide, helium, neon, krypton <strong>an</strong>d<br />
xenon account for <strong>the</strong> rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g 1 per cent<br />
(Figure 4).<br />
Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gases <strong>in</strong> this 1 per cent play<br />
<strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t role <strong>in</strong> regulat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Earth’s<br />
temperature, however, by help<strong>in</strong>g to bal<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
<strong>the</strong> energy that is received from <strong>the</strong><br />
sun <strong>an</strong>d reflected back <strong>in</strong>to space by <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth. These gases <strong>in</strong>clude carbon<br />
dioxide, meth<strong>an</strong>e, <strong>an</strong>d nitrous oxide <strong>an</strong>d<br />
toge<strong>the</strong>r with water vapour, are commonly<br />
known as greenhouse gases. They help<br />
warm <strong>the</strong> atmosphere by trapp<strong>in</strong>g some <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> energy reflected <strong>of</strong>f <strong>the</strong> Earth <strong>an</strong>d prevent<strong>in</strong>g<br />
it from escap<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
The pr<strong>in</strong>ciple is much like <strong>the</strong> heat-trapp<strong>in</strong>g<br />
glass p<strong>an</strong>els <strong>of</strong> a greenhouse (Figure 5),<br />
hence <strong>the</strong> name greenhouse gases. The<br />
glass p<strong>an</strong>els <strong>of</strong> a greenhouse allow radiation<br />
from <strong>the</strong> sun to get <strong>in</strong>, but prevent <strong>the</strong><br />
heat that is generated by <strong>the</strong> ground, pl<strong>an</strong>ts<br />
<strong>an</strong>d objects <strong>in</strong>side from escap<strong>in</strong>g easily.<br />
The result is a build-up <strong>of</strong> heat <strong>in</strong>side.<br />
33
Sunlight<br />
passes<br />
through <strong>the</strong><br />
greenhouse<br />
gases <strong>an</strong>d<br />
warms <strong>the</strong><br />
earth<br />
Figure 6. Greenhouse effect<br />
Source: Impetus Consult<strong>in</strong>g Ltd.<br />
The greenhouse effect works much <strong>the</strong><br />
same way. Energy from <strong>the</strong> sun, or solar<br />
radiation, passes through <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
<strong>an</strong>d warms <strong>the</strong> Earth’s surface. Some <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> radiation is reflected back out <strong>in</strong>to<br />
space at <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere.<br />
Some reaches <strong>the</strong> Earth, is absorbed by<br />
<strong>the</strong> ground <strong>an</strong>d released as heat. Some <strong>of</strong><br />
this heat passes back through <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
<strong>in</strong>to outer space <strong>an</strong>d some is<br />
reta<strong>in</strong>ed by <strong>the</strong> gases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
<strong>an</strong>d warms <strong>the</strong> Earth (Figure 6).<br />
This natural warm<strong>in</strong>g is what makes <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth habitable for <strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts, <strong>an</strong>imals <strong>an</strong>d<br />
hum<strong>an</strong>s that have evolved <strong>the</strong>re; without it,<br />
<strong>the</strong> Earth’s average temperature would be<br />
<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>hospitable -18°C <strong>in</strong>stead <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
present 14°C.<br />
The enh<strong>an</strong>ced greenhouse effect<br />
When this natural warm<strong>in</strong>g process is<br />
exaggerated or enh<strong>an</strong>ced, <strong>the</strong>re is cause<br />
for concern. An <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> concentration<br />
<strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
results <strong>in</strong> more heat be<strong>in</strong>g reta<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong> overall warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth’s temperature.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong>y make up a small<br />
percentage <strong>of</strong> atmospheric gases,<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong> greenhouse<br />
gases have a huge effect on <strong>the</strong> bal<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
<strong>of</strong> natural processes.<br />
34<br />
Greenhouse gases<br />
Atmosphere<br />
Outer Space<br />
The earth<br />
warms up <strong>an</strong>d<br />
gives out heat,<br />
some heat passes back out<br />
through <strong>the</strong> greenhouse gases<br />
but some is trapped <strong>in</strong>side<br />
keep<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> earth warm<br />
The hum<strong>an</strong> factor<br />
The core concern about climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is<br />
hum<strong>an</strong> potential to alter <strong>the</strong> climate<br />
through activities that are a result <strong>of</strong> our<br />
way <strong>of</strong> life <strong>an</strong>d how we treat <strong>the</strong> natural<br />
environment. There have been signific<strong>an</strong>t<br />
Box 4. Hum<strong>an</strong> activity <strong>an</strong>d<br />
greenhouse gases<br />
The pr<strong>in</strong>cipal greenhouse gases<br />
that enter <strong>the</strong> atmosphere because<br />
<strong>of</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> activities are:<br />
Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ): Carbon dioxide<br />
enters <strong>the</strong> atmosphere through <strong>the</strong> burn<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>of</strong> fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, <strong>an</strong>d coal),<br />
solid waste, trees <strong>an</strong>d wood products, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
also as a result <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r chemical reactions<br />
(e.g., m<strong>an</strong>ufacture <strong>of</strong> cement). Carbon dioxide<br />
is also removed from <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
(or “sequestered”) when it is absorbed by<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>ts as part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> biological carbon cycle.<br />
Meth<strong>an</strong>e (CH 4 ): Meth<strong>an</strong>e is emitted dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> production <strong>an</strong>d tr<strong>an</strong>sport <strong>of</strong> coal,<br />
natural gas, <strong>an</strong>d oil. Meth<strong>an</strong>e emissions also<br />
result from livestock <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r agricultural<br />
practices <strong>an</strong>d by <strong>the</strong> decay <strong>of</strong> org<strong>an</strong>ic waste<br />
<strong>in</strong> municipal solid waste l<strong>an</strong>dfills.<br />
Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O): Nitrous oxide is<br />
emitted dur<strong>in</strong>g agricultural <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dustrial<br />
activities, as well as dur<strong>in</strong>g combustion <strong>of</strong><br />
fossil fuels <strong>an</strong>d solid waste.<br />
Fluor<strong>in</strong>ated Gases: Hydr<strong>of</strong>luorocarbons,<br />
perfluorocarbons, <strong>an</strong>d sulfur hexafluoride<br />
are syn<strong>the</strong>tic, powerful greenhouse gases<br />
that are emitted from a variety <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustrial<br />
processes. Fluor<strong>in</strong>ated gases are sometimes<br />
used as substitutes for ozone-deplet<strong>in</strong>g subst<strong>an</strong>ces<br />
(i.e., CFCs, HCFCs, <strong>an</strong>d halons).<br />
These gases are typically emitted <strong>in</strong> smaller<br />
qu<strong>an</strong>tities, but because <strong>the</strong>y are potent<br />
greenhouse gases, <strong>the</strong>y are sometimes<br />
referred to as High Global Warm<strong>in</strong>g Potential<br />
gases (“High GWP gases”).<br />
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency<br />
(www.epa.gov/climate<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>/emissions/<strong>in</strong>dex.html)
L<strong>an</strong>d use (18%)<br />
Agriculture (14%)<br />
Waste (3%)<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r energy related<br />
(5%)<br />
NON-ENERGY<br />
EMISSIONS<br />
Waste<br />
Agriculture<br />
L<strong>an</strong>d use<br />
Industry (14%)<br />
Power (24%)<br />
Tr<strong>an</strong>sport (14%)<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
(8%)<br />
ENERGY EMISSIONS<br />
Power<br />
Tr<strong>an</strong>sport<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
Industry<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r energy related<br />
Figure 7. Greenhouse-gas emissions <strong>in</strong><br />
2000, by source. Source: Prepared by Stern Review,<br />
from data drawn from World Resources Institute <strong>Climate</strong><br />
Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-l<strong>in</strong>e database version 3.0.<br />
technological adv<strong>an</strong>ces over <strong>the</strong> past 60<br />
to 100 years that have <strong>of</strong>fered hum<strong>an</strong>k<strong>in</strong>d<br />
countless benefits <strong>an</strong>d conveniences.<br />
These <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> activity, however,<br />
have also led to <strong>an</strong> additional release<br />
<strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases that have placed<br />
stress on natural processes.<br />
Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gases, such as carbon<br />
dioxide, water vapour, meth<strong>an</strong>e, nitrous<br />
oxide, <strong>an</strong>d ozone are <strong>the</strong> result<br />
<strong>of</strong> both natural <strong>an</strong>d hum<strong>an</strong><br />
processes. O<strong>the</strong>rs, notably fluor<strong>in</strong>ated<br />
gases, are generated<br />
solely by hum<strong>an</strong> activities. The<br />
sources <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se gas emissions<br />
<strong>in</strong>clude burn<strong>in</strong>g fossil fuels to<br />
power our way <strong>of</strong> life, <strong>in</strong>dustrial<br />
processes, urb<strong>an</strong>isation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
l<strong>an</strong>d use, agriculture <strong>an</strong>d deforestation<br />
(Figure 7 <strong>an</strong>d Box 4).<br />
S<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>dustrial revolution, concentrations<br />
<strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere have <strong>in</strong>creased<br />
nearly 30 per cent (Figure 7),<br />
meth<strong>an</strong>e concentrations have<br />
more th<strong>an</strong> doubled, <strong>an</strong>d nitrous<br />
CO 2 Concentrations (ppmv)<br />
380<br />
360<br />
340<br />
320<br />
300<br />
280<br />
260<br />
0<br />
oxide concentrations have risen by about<br />
15 per cent.<br />
Carbon dioxide <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong><br />
warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Carbon dioxide is <strong>the</strong> s<strong>in</strong>gle largest contributor<br />
to <strong>the</strong> enh<strong>an</strong>ced greenhouse<br />
effect. Increases <strong>in</strong> carbon dioxide emissions<br />
account for approximately 70 per<br />
cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> enh<strong>an</strong>ced greenhouse effect.<br />
Us<strong>in</strong>g ice cores from <strong>the</strong> Antarctic, scientists<br />
estimate that <strong>the</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong><br />
carbon dioxide <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
pre-<strong>in</strong>dustrial era had a value <strong>of</strong> approximately<br />
280 parts per million (ppm). Measurements<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2005 put it at 379 ppm. The<br />
2005 figures also tell a story <strong>of</strong> alarm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
growth. The 2005 carbon dioxide levels<br />
exceeded <strong>the</strong> natural r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> atmospheric<br />
carbon dioxide over <strong>the</strong> last<br />
650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm). In addition,<br />
even though <strong>the</strong>re has been year to<br />
year variability (at <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 1.9 ppm),<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>an</strong>nual growth rate <strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide<br />
concentrations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere was<br />
larger dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> 10 years between 1995<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 2005 th<strong>an</strong> it had been s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>of</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>uous direct atmospheric<br />
measurements between 1960 <strong>an</strong>d 2005<br />
(average: 1.4 ppm per year) (IPCC, 2007).<br />
Atmospheric Concentrations<br />
Anthropogenic Emissions<br />
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000<br />
Year<br />
Figure 8. Trends <strong>in</strong> Atmospheric Concentrations <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Anthropogenic Emissions <strong>of</strong> Carbon Dioxide<br />
Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.<br />
7.000<br />
6.000<br />
5.000<br />
4.000<br />
3.000<br />
2.000<br />
1.000<br />
0<br />
CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons <strong>of</strong> carbon)<br />
35
The carbon dioxide imbal<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
It is true that natural sources <strong>of</strong> carbon<br />
dioxide - pl<strong>an</strong>t respiration <strong>an</strong>d decomposition<br />
<strong>of</strong> org<strong>an</strong>ic matter - generate more th<strong>an</strong><br />
10 times <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide produced<br />
by hum<strong>an</strong> activities such as driv<strong>in</strong>g<br />
motor vehicles, heat<strong>in</strong>g homes <strong>an</strong>d power<strong>in</strong>g<br />
factories. However, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> past, natural<br />
processes that remove or sequester<br />
carbon dioxide from <strong>the</strong> atmosphere,<br />
namely photosyn<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> carbon<br />
reservoir function <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>s, bal<strong>an</strong>ced<br />
out <strong>the</strong>se releases.<br />
We now have a situation where not only<br />
are additional sources produc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d<br />
emitt<strong>in</strong>g carbon dioxide <strong>in</strong> signific<strong>an</strong>t<br />
qu<strong>an</strong>tities, but <strong>the</strong> natural s<strong>in</strong>ks that<br />
remove carbon dioxide are also be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
compromised. Trees <strong>an</strong>d forests are be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
cut down for a variety <strong>of</strong> reasons, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
agriculture <strong>an</strong>d hum<strong>an</strong> settlements. At <strong>the</strong><br />
same time, oce<strong>an</strong>s, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> North<br />
<strong>an</strong>d South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic oce<strong>an</strong>s, are reach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir carbon dioxide saturation po<strong>in</strong>t<br />
because <strong>the</strong>ir absorptive capacity is fail<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to keep pace with <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> carbon<br />
dioxide emissions. A 10-year study by <strong>the</strong><br />
University <strong>of</strong> East Anglia found that <strong>the</strong><br />
North Atl<strong>an</strong>tic halved its absorption <strong>of</strong><br />
carbon dioxide between <strong>the</strong> mid-90s <strong>an</strong>d<br />
2005 (Schuster <strong>an</strong>d Watson, 2007). Scientists<br />
previously thought <strong>the</strong> carbon s<strong>in</strong>k<br />
function <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>s would help <strong>of</strong>fset<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong>thropogenic carbon<br />
dioxide emissions. However, this appears<br />
not to be <strong>the</strong> case. Even though a<br />
decrease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> ability <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>s to<br />
absorb carbon dioxide was <strong>an</strong>ticipated by<br />
scientists <strong>an</strong>d even factored <strong>in</strong>to some climate<br />
models, it seems to be happen<strong>in</strong>g 40<br />
years earlier th<strong>an</strong> expected.<br />
Oce<strong>an</strong> acidification<br />
Scientists are now observ<strong>in</strong>g trends<br />
<strong>of</strong> oce<strong>an</strong> acidification, a decrease <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> pH due to <strong>in</strong>creased absorption <strong>of</strong><br />
36<br />
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Surface<br />
oce<strong>an</strong> pH is already 0.1 units lower th<strong>an</strong><br />
pre-<strong>in</strong>dustrial values <strong>an</strong>d, <strong>in</strong> one emissions<br />
scenario, by <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> century<br />
it could be lowered by <strong>an</strong> additional<br />
0.14–0.35 units. Research is suggest<strong>in</strong>g<br />
that if <strong>the</strong> acidification trend cont<strong>in</strong>ues,<br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e org<strong>an</strong>isms such as coral, pl<strong>an</strong>kton<br />
<strong>an</strong>d shellfish, might not be able to make<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir skeletons <strong>an</strong>d this could have ramifications<br />
for coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e environments.<br />
Under normal conditions, carbonate ion<br />
levels are high <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong>, but when <strong>the</strong><br />
water becomes more acidic, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
decrease. When this happens, structures<br />
that are made <strong>of</strong> calcium carbonate are at<br />
risk <strong>of</strong> dissolution. In <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> corals,<br />
this could cause slower or more fragile<br />
growth <strong>an</strong>d lead to a decrease <strong>in</strong> coral<br />
cover <strong>an</strong>d a smaller reef framework<br />
(Kleypas et al., 2006; Orr et al., 2005; The<br />
Royal Society, 2005). The Caribbe<strong>an</strong> is one<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regions where reefs are expected to<br />
suffer <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> oce<strong>an</strong> acidification<br />
(Hoegh-Guldberg, et al., 2007).<br />
Coral reefs play <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t role <strong>in</strong> protect<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> shorel<strong>in</strong>e from wave erosion.<br />
They generate coral s<strong>an</strong>d, provide nurseries<br />
<strong>an</strong>d habitats for fish <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r mar<strong>in</strong>e<br />
species <strong>an</strong>d provide opportunities for<br />
recreation activities, particularly div<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d<br />
snorkell<strong>in</strong>g. Compromised coral reefs<br />
weaken coastal defences <strong>an</strong>d c<strong>an</strong> have a<br />
negative effect on fisheries, beach quality<br />
<strong>an</strong>d tourism.<br />
2.4 How do we know that<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is<br />
occurr<strong>in</strong>g?<br />
The mass media have made much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
fate <strong>of</strong> polar bears <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Arctic due to<br />
losses <strong>of</strong> summer sea ice. Although<br />
melt<strong>in</strong>g sea ice <strong>an</strong>d glaciers <strong>an</strong>d drown<strong>in</strong>g<br />
bears are some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> widely known early<br />
warn<strong>in</strong>g signs <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, <strong>the</strong>y are not <strong>the</strong>
Box 5. Slow onset versus sudden extreme events<br />
Although <strong>the</strong>re are a r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> potential impacts from climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, r<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g from ris<strong>in</strong>g<br />
sea levels, to ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns, <strong>in</strong>dividuals <strong>an</strong>d countries are likely to experience<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> two ma<strong>in</strong> ways: ei<strong>the</strong>r as a <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> average climate conditions (<strong>of</strong>ten<br />
referred to as slow onset <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>), or as <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> sudden, extreme events.<br />
Slow onset <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong>clude:<br />
• Sea-level rise<br />
• Increase <strong>in</strong> air temperature: The average warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> regions where small isl<strong>an</strong>ds are<br />
located is likely to be between 2.0°C <strong>an</strong>d 2.8°C by 2050 (compared with 1990<br />
temperatures). By 2080, <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease (above 1990 temperatures) is likely to be<br />
between 3.1°C <strong>an</strong>d 4.3°C.<br />
• Increase <strong>in</strong> sea surface temperature<br />
• More ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>an</strong>d flood<strong>in</strong>g dur<strong>in</strong>g wet seasons<br />
• Less ra<strong>in</strong>fall dur<strong>in</strong>g dry seasons.<br />
Examples <strong>of</strong> sudden, extreme events:<br />
• The frequency <strong>of</strong> extreme temperatures (e.g., heat waves) is likely to <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
• An <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensity <strong>of</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall<br />
• An <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensity <strong>of</strong> tropical cyclones.<br />
only th<strong>in</strong>gs that tell us someth<strong>in</strong>g is awry<br />
with <strong>the</strong> global climate.<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> climate cues<br />
In some nor<strong>the</strong>rn latitudes, grow<strong>in</strong>g seasons<br />
are longer because spr<strong>in</strong>g now<br />
arrives earlier <strong>an</strong>d bird nest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imal<br />
migration patterns have <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d. Some<br />
species <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>sects, like butterflies, dragonflies<br />
<strong>an</strong>d beetles, are surviv<strong>in</strong>g at higher<br />
latitudes th<strong>an</strong> before. Some species more<br />
commonly associated with warmer climates,<br />
like loggerhead turtles, are <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly<br />
be<strong>in</strong>g spotted <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> United K<strong>in</strong>gdom.<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r patterns<br />
These <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> climate cues are l<strong>in</strong>ked<br />
to <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r patterns, particularly<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> temperature <strong>an</strong>d precipitation.<br />
S<strong>in</strong>gle abnormalities <strong>in</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r are<br />
not <strong>the</strong> th<strong>in</strong>gs that tell us that climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is occurr<strong>in</strong>g. On <strong>the</strong>ir own, <strong>an</strong><br />
unseasonably cool December <strong>in</strong> Bermuda<br />
Source: Tompk<strong>in</strong>s et al., 2005<br />
or a wetter th<strong>an</strong> usual summer <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Chagos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds could be r<strong>an</strong>dom events,<br />
but evidence <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> comes<br />
from observed patterns over time. The<br />
IPCC <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r climate researchers have<br />
been build<strong>in</strong>g a body <strong>of</strong> observational<br />
data that show medium to long-term<br />
trends, <strong>an</strong>d this <strong>in</strong>formation po<strong>in</strong>ts to four<br />
th<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />
First, <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere have had<br />
<strong>an</strong> effect on temperature, precipitation,<br />
storms <strong>an</strong>d sea level. Second, warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
has noticeably <strong>in</strong>fluenced m<strong>an</strong>y physical<br />
<strong>an</strong>d biological systems (Parry et al., 2007,<br />
Solomon, et al., 2007). Third, climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> impacts fall <strong>in</strong>to two ma<strong>in</strong> categories:<br />
slow onset impacts (<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong><br />
average climate conditions) <strong>an</strong>d extreme<br />
events (<strong>in</strong>creased <strong>in</strong>tensity <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>an</strong>d<br />
tropical storms) (see Box 5). F<strong>in</strong>ally, climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not experienced <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
same way by all countries <strong>an</strong>d regions.<br />
37
Observed trends<br />
Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> IPCC conclusions about<br />
observed trends are below.<br />
Temperature: Eleven <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 12 warmest<br />
years s<strong>in</strong>ce 1850 (when <strong>in</strong>strumental<br />
record keep<strong>in</strong>g beg<strong>an</strong>) occurred between<br />
38<br />
1995 <strong>an</strong>d 2006. The l<strong>in</strong>ear warm<strong>in</strong>g trend<br />
over <strong>the</strong> last 50 years, <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 0.13°C<br />
per decade (with a r<strong>an</strong>ge between 0.10°C<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 0.16°C), is nearly double that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
previous 100 years. The total temperature<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease from 1850–1899 to 2001–2005 is<br />
Figure 9. (Top) Patterns <strong>of</strong> l<strong>in</strong>ear global temperature trends over <strong>the</strong> period 1979 to 2005<br />
estimated at <strong>the</strong> surface (left), <strong>an</strong>d for <strong>the</strong> troposphere from satellite records (right). Grey<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicates areas with <strong>in</strong>complete data.<br />
(Bottom) Annual global me<strong>an</strong> temperatures (black dots) with l<strong>in</strong>ear fits to <strong>the</strong> data. The left h<strong>an</strong>d<br />
axis shows temperature <strong>an</strong>omalies relative to <strong>the</strong> 1961 to 1990 average <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> right h<strong>an</strong>d axis<br />
shows estimated actual temperatures, both <strong>in</strong> °C. L<strong>in</strong>ear trends are shown for <strong>the</strong> last 25 (yellow),<br />
50 (or<strong>an</strong>ge), 100 (purple) <strong>an</strong>d 150 years (red). The smooth blue curve shows decadal variations,<br />
with <strong>the</strong> decadal 90% error r<strong>an</strong>ge shown as a pale blue b<strong>an</strong>d about that l<strong>in</strong>e. The total temperature<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease from <strong>the</strong> period 1850 to 1899 to <strong>the</strong> period 2001 to 2005 is 0.76°C ± 0.19°C.<br />
(Source: IPCC, 2007a, FAQ 3.1, Figure 1).
<strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 0.76°C, with a r<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
between 0.57°C <strong>an</strong>d 0.95°C (IPCC, 2007).<br />
(Figure 9)<br />
In <strong>the</strong>ir Fourth Assessment Report, <strong>the</strong><br />
IPCC concluded it is very likely that over<br />
<strong>the</strong> past 50 years cold days, cold nights<br />
<strong>an</strong>d frosts have become less frequent over<br />
most l<strong>an</strong>d areas, <strong>an</strong>d hot days <strong>an</strong>d hot<br />
nights have become more frequent. It also<br />
suggests heat waves may have become<br />
more frequent over most l<strong>an</strong>d area <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong>re are possibly more heavy precipitation<br />
events over most areas (IPCC, 2007).<br />
Precipitation: Between 1900 <strong>an</strong>d 2005,<br />
<strong>the</strong>re was <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> precipitation <strong>in</strong><br />
some parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world <strong>an</strong>d a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong><br />
o<strong>the</strong>rs. There were signific<strong>an</strong>t <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong><br />
eastern parts <strong>of</strong> North <strong>an</strong>d South America,<br />
nor<strong>the</strong>rn Europe <strong>an</strong>d nor<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
<strong>an</strong>d central Asia but decreases<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Sahel, <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>,<br />
sou<strong>the</strong>rn Africa <strong>an</strong>d parts <strong>of</strong><br />
sou<strong>the</strong>rn Asia. More areas seem<br />
to be affected by drought globally<br />
s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> 1970s (IPCC,<br />
2007). In <strong>the</strong> future, Arctic <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Equatorial regions may become<br />
wetter, <strong>an</strong>d subtropical regions<br />
drier. However, projections <strong>of</strong><br />
precipitation <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s for temperate<br />
regions are less consis-<br />
tent.<br />
Storms: S<strong>in</strong>ce 1970, <strong>the</strong>re has<br />
been more <strong>in</strong>tense tropical<br />
storm activity, marked by a 75<br />
per cent <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> number<br />
<strong>of</strong> category 4 <strong>an</strong>d 5 hurric<strong>an</strong>es.<br />
The largest <strong>in</strong>creases were <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> North Pacific, Indi<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Southwest Pacific Oce<strong>an</strong>s, but<br />
<strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> hurric<strong>an</strong>es <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
North Atl<strong>an</strong>tic has also been<br />
above normal <strong>in</strong> n<strong>in</strong>e <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> past<br />
11 years, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> record<br />
break<strong>in</strong>g 2005 season (IPCC,<br />
2007). One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> natural factors<br />
Hurric<strong>an</strong>e Iv<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds.<br />
The number <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>tensity <strong>of</strong> storms has<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased <strong>in</strong> recent years Credit: Department <strong>of</strong><br />
Environment, Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government<br />
that helps decrease storm <strong>in</strong>tensity is cold<br />
oce<strong>an</strong> waters, but as average oce<strong>an</strong> temperatures<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease (see below), a natural<br />
retard<strong>an</strong>t is becom<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong> acceler<strong>an</strong>t.<br />
Figure 10. Time series <strong>of</strong> global me<strong>an</strong> sea level (deviation<br />
from <strong>the</strong> 1980-1999 me<strong>an</strong>) <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> past <strong>an</strong>d as projected for<br />
<strong>the</strong> future. For <strong>the</strong> period before 1870, global measurements<br />
<strong>of</strong> sea level are not available. The grey shad<strong>in</strong>g shows <strong>the</strong><br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> estimated long-term rate <strong>of</strong> sea level<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. The red l<strong>in</strong>e is a reconstruction <strong>of</strong> global me<strong>an</strong> sea<br />
level from tide gauges <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> red shad<strong>in</strong>g denotes <strong>the</strong> r<strong>an</strong>ge<br />
<strong>of</strong> variations from a smooth curve. The green l<strong>in</strong>e shows<br />
global me<strong>an</strong> sea level observed from satellite altimetry. The<br />
blue shad<strong>in</strong>g represents <strong>the</strong> r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> model projections <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (project A1B)<br />
for <strong>the</strong> 21st century, relative to <strong>the</strong> 1980 to 1999 me<strong>an</strong>, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
has been calculated <strong>in</strong>dependently from <strong>the</strong> observations.<br />
Beyond 2100, <strong>the</strong> projections are <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly dependent on<br />
<strong>the</strong> emissions scenario. Over m<strong>an</strong>y centuries or millennia,<br />
sea level could rise by several metres.<br />
(Source: IPCC, 2007b, p.111).<br />
39
Sea level <strong>an</strong>d temperature: Global<br />
average sea level has risen at <strong>an</strong> average<br />
rate <strong>of</strong> 1.8 mm per year s<strong>in</strong>ce 1961, with a<br />
marked acceleration <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
to <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 3.1 mm per year s<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
1993 (Figure 10). It is too soon, however, to<br />
know if <strong>the</strong> latter is a short-term variability<br />
or a long-term trend. Sea level rise is <strong>the</strong><br />
consequence <strong>of</strong> two processes associated<br />
with warm<strong>in</strong>g: <strong>in</strong>flows <strong>of</strong> water from<br />
melt<strong>in</strong>g glaciers, ice caps <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> polar<br />
sheets <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>rmal exp<strong>an</strong>sion <strong>of</strong> seawater,<br />
that is, <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> volume <strong>of</strong> seawater<br />
<strong>in</strong> response to a temperature<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
More th<strong>an</strong> 80 per cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> heat added to<br />
<strong>the</strong> climate system is be<strong>in</strong>g absorbed by<br />
40<br />
oce<strong>an</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d this is affect<strong>in</strong>g not just <strong>the</strong><br />
surface water, but water at greater depths<br />
as well. Observations s<strong>in</strong>ce 1961 show <strong>the</strong><br />
average temperature <strong>of</strong> water at depths <strong>of</strong><br />
up to 3,000 m has <strong>in</strong>creased (IPCC, 2007).<br />
In <strong>the</strong>ir latest report, <strong>the</strong> IPCC projected<br />
that global sea level rise <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 21st century<br />
would be at a greater rate th<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong> period<br />
from 1961 to 2003.<br />
Snow <strong>an</strong>d ice extent: Satellite data s<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
1978 show that <strong>an</strong>nual average Arctic sea<br />
ice extent has shrunk by <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 3.7<br />
percent per decade, with larger decreases<br />
<strong>in</strong> summer <strong>of</strong> 7.4 per cent per decade.<br />
Mounta<strong>in</strong> glaciers <strong>an</strong>d snow cover on<br />
average have decl<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> both hemispheres.<br />
Chapter summary<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is <strong>an</strong>y signific<strong>an</strong>t modification over time <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> climate <strong>of</strong> a zone or<br />
region. This <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> c<strong>an</strong> be natural or it c<strong>an</strong> have its roots <strong>in</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> activity. Natural<br />
processes <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> have been tak<strong>in</strong>g place s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> Earth beg<strong>an</strong> evolv<strong>in</strong>g, but <strong>the</strong><br />
present day global concern is about <strong>the</strong> unprecedented rate <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> over <strong>the</strong> past<br />
60 to 100 years that is caused by hum<strong>an</strong> activity.<br />
The <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> that is now tak<strong>in</strong>g place is <strong>the</strong> result <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensification <strong>of</strong> a natural <strong>an</strong>d<br />
necessary process, <strong>the</strong> greenhouse effect. Increased emissions <strong>of</strong> greenhouse<br />
gases are lead<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Earth’s average surface <strong>an</strong>d sea temperatures.<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere are hav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong> effect on temperature, precipitation, storm<br />
activity <strong>an</strong>d sea level. The l<strong>in</strong>ear warm<strong>in</strong>g trend over <strong>the</strong> last 50 years is nearly double<br />
that for <strong>the</strong> last hundred years. Some parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world have been experienc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> precipitation while o<strong>the</strong>rs have had a signific<strong>an</strong>t decl<strong>in</strong>e. Global average<br />
sea level has risen at <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 1.8 mm per year s<strong>in</strong>ce 1961 because <strong>of</strong> melt<strong>in</strong>g<br />
glaciers, ice caps <strong>an</strong>d sea ice. Satellite data s<strong>in</strong>ce 1978 show that <strong>an</strong>nual average see<br />
ice extent has shrunk by <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 3.7 per cent per decade.<br />
All <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se consequences <strong>of</strong> warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> turn <strong>in</strong>fluence physical <strong>an</strong>d biological systems;<br />
this has serious implications for m<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d society.
Why climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> matters<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
3<br />
Unpack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>in</strong> UK Overseas<br />
Territories: Present <strong>an</strong>d Future Impacts<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> scientists use data <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
about past <strong>an</strong>d present conditions to<br />
model scenarios that provide projections<br />
on plausible future <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s (Box 6). Each<br />
scenario or set <strong>of</strong> scenarios is based on<br />
assumptions about how present conditions<br />
might <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> population,<br />
energy use <strong>an</strong>d technology are some<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> th<strong>in</strong>gs that scientists factor <strong>in</strong>. This<br />
<strong>in</strong>formation is used to make predictions.<br />
Gett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> right data toge<strong>the</strong>r to provide<br />
evidence <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is a big challenge.<br />
Us<strong>in</strong>g what we have now has given us<br />
enough to underst<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> general pr<strong>in</strong>ciples<br />
<strong>of</strong> what has happened <strong>an</strong>d to predict<br />
how th<strong>in</strong>gs will <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. In some places <strong>the</strong><br />
data are very clear, <strong>an</strong>d are l<strong>in</strong>ked to what<br />
is happen<strong>in</strong>g locally. In o<strong>the</strong>r places, <strong>the</strong><br />
basic data have not been collected <strong>an</strong>d so<br />
predictions about what will <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
why have to be based on <strong>the</strong> best available<br />
evidence <strong>an</strong>d on basic scientific pr<strong>in</strong>ciples.<br />
Challenge <strong>of</strong> mak<strong>in</strong>g projections<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
Mak<strong>in</strong>g climate projections for <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
consequently predict<strong>in</strong>g future impacts is<br />
not that straightforward, even with <strong>the</strong><br />
caveat that mak<strong>in</strong>g predictions about climate-<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s globally is <strong>an</strong><br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong> science. First, data are simply<br />
not available. The spatial scales, or grids,<br />
<strong>of</strong> most models <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> global climate<br />
system are too large to provide <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>:<br />
present <strong>an</strong>d<br />
future impacts<br />
What c<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> do<br />
about climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>?<br />
The way<br />
forward<br />
about small countries like <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>.<br />
The Caribbe<strong>an</strong> is try<strong>in</strong>g to address this<br />
issue through jo<strong>in</strong>t collaboration between<br />
regional <strong>in</strong>stitutions <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Met Office<br />
Hadley Centre <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> United K<strong>in</strong>gdom,<br />
under <strong>the</strong> Provid<strong>in</strong>g Regional <strong>Climate</strong>s for<br />
Impacts Studies (PRECIS) project.<br />
Predict<strong>in</strong>g impacts is fur<strong>the</strong>r complicated<br />
by <strong>the</strong> fact that climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not <strong>the</strong><br />
only process that is affect<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> natural<br />
<strong>an</strong>d physical environments <strong>in</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r phenomena <strong>an</strong>d processes <strong>in</strong>fluence,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d are <strong>in</strong>fluenced by, climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> impacts. Vulnerability to climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> c<strong>an</strong> be exacerbated by <strong>the</strong> presence<br />
<strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r stresses or forc<strong>in</strong>g factors,<br />
whe<strong>the</strong>r natural, such as ENSO or a volc<strong>an</strong>ic<br />
eruption, or m<strong>an</strong>-made, such as pollution<br />
or l<strong>an</strong>d use patterns.<br />
Not only is <strong>the</strong>re a lot <strong>of</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty surround<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> future impacts <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> on <strong>UKOTs</strong>, <strong>the</strong> full extent <strong>of</strong> current<br />
impacts is unknown. This is <strong>in</strong> part<br />
because <strong>the</strong>re has been little climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>-specific monitor<strong>in</strong>g to date.<br />
…what’s at stake for most<br />
[UK] territories is a way <strong>of</strong><br />
life <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> natural<br />
<strong>an</strong>d cultural features that<br />
are so much a part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
identity.<br />
“<br />
”<br />
41
42<br />
Box 6. Three temperature <strong>in</strong>crease scenarios<br />
It is a foregone conclusion that <strong>the</strong> Earth’s temperature will cont<strong>in</strong>ue to rise for some<br />
time to come. What is not known is <strong>the</strong> extent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> that will take place. <strong>Climate</strong><br />
scientists have modeled different scenarios <strong>of</strong> me<strong>an</strong> temperature <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s with a view to<br />
predict<strong>in</strong>g what some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> likely impacts <strong>of</strong> temperature <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s would be.<br />
Global me<strong>an</strong> temperature <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>of</strong> up to 1.5°C would exacerbate current key vulnerabilities<br />
<strong>an</strong>d cause o<strong>the</strong>rs, such as negative health effects caused by heat waves, floods <strong>an</strong><br />
droughts, as well as malnutrition <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>fectious diseases, millions more people exposed to<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased water stress, <strong>in</strong>creased damage from storms <strong>an</strong>d floods, <strong>in</strong>creased coral bleach<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Global me<strong>an</strong> temperature <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>of</strong> 1.5°C to 3.5°C would result <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g number<br />
<strong>of</strong> key impacts at all scales, such as m<strong>an</strong>y million more people at risk from coastal<br />
flood<strong>in</strong>g, widespread loss <strong>of</strong> biodiversity, <strong>an</strong>d commitment to widespread melt<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Greenl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d West Antarctic ice sheets with associated sea level rise.<br />
Global me<strong>an</strong> temperature <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s greater th<strong>an</strong> 3.5°C would exceed <strong>the</strong> capacity <strong>of</strong> all<br />
systems - physical, biological <strong>an</strong>d social, <strong>in</strong> particular <strong>of</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> societies - to adapt to this<br />
extent <strong>of</strong> warm<strong>in</strong>g, especially s<strong>in</strong>ce it c<strong>an</strong> be even more pronounced regionally. As examples,<br />
about 30% loss <strong>of</strong> global coastal wetl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d widespread mortality <strong>of</strong> corals.<br />
Need for action <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
Based on <strong>the</strong> data <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>formation that are<br />
available (some <strong>of</strong> which is summarised<br />
below), climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is already affect<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>. The IPCC projects that, even <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
best possible scenario, <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> will worsen before <strong>the</strong> situation<br />
improves. <strong>UKOTs</strong> have no control over<br />
<strong>the</strong> storm surges that affect <strong>the</strong>ir shores,<br />
nor c<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong>y regulate <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g oce<strong>an</strong><br />
temperatures that affect <strong>the</strong>ir coral reefs or<br />
fish <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>imals <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir waters, but<br />
what <strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> do is pl<strong>an</strong> for <strong>the</strong>se threats<br />
<strong>an</strong>d put <strong>in</strong> place systems <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
to reduce risk <strong>an</strong>d build resilience.<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong>not afford to adopt a wait <strong>an</strong>d<br />
see attitude. The economies <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> territories<br />
are too small <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>y are too<br />
dependent on sensitive ecosystems. If<br />
<strong>the</strong>y are completely unprepared, <strong>the</strong><br />
external shocks <strong>of</strong> some climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
impacts could be devastat<strong>in</strong>g. In <strong>the</strong> most<br />
extreme circumst<strong>an</strong>ces, some <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
Source: Germ<strong>an</strong> Federal M<strong>in</strong>istry for <strong>the</strong> Environment, Nature Conservation<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Nuclear Safety et al., 2007<br />
could lose l<strong>an</strong>d because <strong>of</strong> ris<strong>in</strong>g sea<br />
levels. Even without <strong>the</strong> most extreme scenario<br />
becom<strong>in</strong>g reality, what’s at stake for<br />
most territories is a way <strong>of</strong> life <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> natural <strong>an</strong>d cultural features that are so<br />
much a part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir identity.<br />
Vulnerability to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> c<strong>an</strong><br />
be <strong>in</strong>tensified by <strong>the</strong> presence <strong>of</strong><br />
o<strong>the</strong>r stresses<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not <strong>the</strong> only threat that<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> face. Each territory has its particular<br />
mix <strong>of</strong> stresses on <strong>the</strong> natural <strong>an</strong>d<br />
physical environments. Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se<br />
pressures are a result <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s people<br />
have made to <strong>the</strong> l<strong>an</strong>dscape <strong>an</strong>d oce<strong>an</strong>s.<br />
Some are a consequence <strong>of</strong> pollution, <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>troduction <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>vasive alien species,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> over harvest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts, fish <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>an</strong>imals. Some have <strong>the</strong>ir roots <strong>in</strong> natural<br />
phenomena. Never<strong>the</strong>less, whatever <strong>the</strong><br />
source, toge<strong>the</strong>r with climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease risk <strong>an</strong>d reduce resilience to natural<br />
hazards <strong>in</strong> a mutually re<strong>in</strong>forc<strong>in</strong>g
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>the</strong> habitat <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>vasive species. In some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> South<br />
Atl<strong>an</strong>tic <strong>an</strong>d sub-Antarctic isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>in</strong>vasive<br />
re<strong>in</strong>deer are putt<strong>in</strong>g endemic species at risk.<br />
Credit: Falkl<strong>an</strong>ds Conservation<br />
cycle. These pre-exist<strong>in</strong>g stresses make it<br />
difficult for systems to naturally withst<strong>an</strong>d<br />
all <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> climate-<strong>in</strong>duced <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> presents additional challenges<br />
for systems already under stra<strong>in</strong>.<br />
3.1 Overall impacts <strong>of</strong><br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
The full extent <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> impacts<br />
on <strong>UKOTs</strong> is uncerta<strong>in</strong> because it is difficult<br />
to project future climate scenarios with<br />
accuracy. However, based on trends to<br />
date, <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>ticipate be<strong>in</strong>g affected<br />
by climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> ecologically, economically<br />
<strong>an</strong>d socially.<br />
Livelihoods <strong>an</strong>d food security: <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
rely more heavily on fragile natural<br />
resources th<strong>an</strong> m<strong>an</strong>y o<strong>the</strong>r societies. They<br />
also rely on a limited set <strong>of</strong> coastal <strong>an</strong>d<br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e resource systems. Most<br />
economies, <strong>an</strong>d consequently community<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dividual livelihood strategies, are not<br />
very diversified <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>re is little potential<br />
for diversification (Sear et al., 2001, Mimura<br />
et al., 2007). Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> key sectors that<br />
provide opportunities for livelihoods <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> – tourism, fisheries <strong>an</strong>d agriculture<br />
– will be affected by climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Tourism <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Bermuda would be particularly affected by<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> because <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir reli<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
on coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e resources. Because<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> l<strong>in</strong>kages between tourism <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
sectors, such as agriculture, h<strong>an</strong>dicraft<br />
<strong>in</strong>dustries, enterta<strong>in</strong>ment <strong>an</strong>d small bus<strong>in</strong>esses,<br />
a downturn <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> tourism <strong>in</strong>dustry<br />
would have serious knock-on effects <strong>in</strong><br />
those <strong>UKOTs</strong> where tourism is a major economic<br />
activity. The entire economies <strong>of</strong><br />
places like <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Anguilla, where tourism contributes 45 per<br />
cent <strong>an</strong>d 28.7 per cent <strong>of</strong> GDP respectively,<br />
would certa<strong>in</strong>ly feel <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>an</strong>y<br />
decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r forms <strong>of</strong> tourism are also likely to be<br />
sensitive to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> impacts on<br />
coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e habitats. Those territories<br />
that sell a nature tourism product that<br />
is built around <strong>the</strong>ir birds <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>imals,<br />
such as South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> South<br />
S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, could also experience a<br />
down turn <strong>in</strong> arrivals if loss <strong>of</strong> habitat <strong>an</strong>d<br />
food supplies leads to a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
species that visitors go to see.<br />
In addition, <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g cost <strong>of</strong> travel<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> dest<strong>in</strong>ation choices may<br />
reduce <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> tourists visit<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> (Sear et al., 2001).<br />
Commercial <strong>an</strong>d subsistence fish<strong>in</strong>g are<br />
import<strong>an</strong>t <strong>in</strong> a number <strong>of</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Anguilla, <strong>the</strong> Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, St. Helena,<br />
<strong>the</strong> South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d South S<strong>an</strong>dwich<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>the</strong> Turks <strong>an</strong>d Caicos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha. Fisheries account for 85<br />
per cent <strong>of</strong> GDP <strong>in</strong> South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
South S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds. With most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
world’s fisheries under stress from over<br />
fish<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d habitat destruction from pollution,<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> only adds <strong>an</strong>o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
layer <strong>of</strong> pressure. Water temperature <strong>in</strong>fluences<br />
<strong>the</strong> migration, growth, recruitment<br />
<strong>an</strong>d mortality <strong>of</strong> fish. As habitats become<br />
less favourable, species migrate <strong>in</strong> search<br />
<strong>of</strong> conditions that are more suitable. In<br />
some <strong>in</strong>st<strong>an</strong>ces species risk becom<strong>in</strong>g<br />
locally ext<strong>in</strong>ct.<br />
43
Ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g grow<strong>in</strong>g seasons, drought <strong>an</strong>d<br />
water shortages are plac<strong>in</strong>g a stra<strong>in</strong> on<br />
food production <strong>in</strong> some territories. Those<br />
territories that are prone to tropical<br />
cyclones risk devastation <strong>of</strong> local agriculture<br />
after <strong>in</strong>tense storms. Scientists do not<br />
yet know <strong>the</strong> full effect that global warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
will have on agriculture. What <strong>the</strong>y do<br />
know is that temperature, carbon dioxide<br />
concentration <strong>an</strong>d ozone levels all affect<br />
crop yields.<br />
Health: The IPCC projects that climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> will <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> burden <strong>of</strong> disease<br />
globally (Parry et al., 2007). The health<br />
risks associated with extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> will <strong>in</strong>crease. It is also likely that <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>cidence <strong>of</strong> water <strong>an</strong>d vector borne diseases<br />
will <strong>in</strong>crease as water availability is<br />
affected <strong>an</strong>d higher temperatures <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> geographic distribution <strong>of</strong> vectors <strong>an</strong>d<br />
shorten <strong>in</strong>cubation periods.<br />
Water resources: Though it is difficult to<br />
predict exactly what ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns will be<br />
<strong>in</strong> future, precipitation <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s are likely to<br />
<strong>in</strong>fluence water supplies. The wet <strong>an</strong>d dry<br />
cycles associated with ENSO events c<strong>an</strong><br />
seriously affect water supplies <strong>in</strong> countries<br />
that are heavily dependent on ra<strong>in</strong> water.<br />
Ground water supplies, <strong>in</strong> small isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>in</strong><br />
particular, face possible threats from contam<strong>in</strong>ation<br />
by salt water. Drought-prone<br />
regions that already experience water<br />
44<br />
A Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds’ beach, before <strong>an</strong>d after erosion.<br />
Credit: Department <strong>of</strong> Environment, Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Government<br />
shortages, like <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>, are<br />
likely to see more acute scarcity.<br />
Economic <strong>an</strong>d f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>cial impacts: The<br />
small <strong>an</strong>d narrow economic bases <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> make <strong>the</strong>m very vulnerable to<br />
external shocks. All <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> physical impacts<br />
<strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal zone have<br />
associated economic costs. Some are<br />
direct, as <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> damage to <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
(see below), hum<strong>an</strong> settlements,<br />
crops etc. O<strong>the</strong>rs are <strong>in</strong>direct, such as foregone<br />
earn<strong>in</strong>gs from major sectors like<br />
tourism <strong>an</strong>d loss <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> services <strong>of</strong> critical<br />
ecosystems. Extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r events,<br />
such as hurric<strong>an</strong>es or tropical storms, c<strong>an</strong><br />
be particularly costly. For example, Hurric<strong>an</strong>e<br />
Iv<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> 2004 cost <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
USD3,432 million or 138 per cent <strong>of</strong> GDP<br />
(Zapata Martí, 2005). There are also considerable<br />
costs associated with<br />
address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> proactively by<br />
reduc<strong>in</strong>g risk <strong>an</strong>d build<strong>in</strong>g resilience.<br />
“ The goods <strong>an</strong>d services<br />
that coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e<br />
ecosystems provide <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
are critical to <strong>the</strong> well-be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir people <strong>an</strong>d<br />
economies<br />
”
Infrastructure: Most <strong>UKOTs</strong> have a high<br />
concentration <strong>of</strong> critical <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
(ports, airports, houses <strong>an</strong>d bus<strong>in</strong>esses) <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> coastal zone. Flood<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d physical<br />
damage may lead to closure <strong>of</strong> roads, airports<br />
<strong>an</strong>d bridges. The result<strong>in</strong>g disruption<br />
is also likely to affect communications as<br />
well as o<strong>the</strong>r key dependent sectors <strong>an</strong>d<br />
services, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g tourism, agriculture,<br />
health care delivery <strong>an</strong>d market supplies<br />
(Mimura et al., 2007).<br />
Coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e resources: Oce<strong>an</strong>s<br />
<strong>an</strong>d seas are import<strong>an</strong>t ecosystems <strong>in</strong> all<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>. The goods <strong>an</strong>d services that<br />
coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e ecosystems provide<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> are critical to <strong>the</strong> well-be<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
people <strong>an</strong>d economies.<br />
Coral reefs <strong>an</strong>d sea grass beds are import<strong>an</strong>t<br />
nurseries for fisheries, for example,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d beaches are breed<strong>in</strong>g grounds for<br />
several mar<strong>in</strong>e species, such as turtles <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d Pacific <strong>an</strong>d seals <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Antarctic <strong>an</strong>d sub-Antarctic. Coral reefs<br />
are <strong>an</strong> extremely diverse ecosystem. Globally,<br />
<strong>the</strong>y cover a mere 0.2 per cent <strong>of</strong><br />
oce<strong>an</strong> floor, but <strong>the</strong>y are home to 25 per<br />
cent <strong>of</strong> its species (Roberts, 2003 cited <strong>in</strong><br />
Grimsditch et al., 2006), <strong>the</strong>y are also part<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> tourism product that m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> market. They generate<br />
<strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>e white s<strong>an</strong>d that is part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
appeal <strong>of</strong> tropical beaches <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>ir abund<strong>an</strong>t<br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e life <strong>an</strong>d structural formations<br />
attract snorkellers <strong>an</strong>d divers.<br />
M<strong>an</strong>groves <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r wetl<strong>an</strong>ds are <strong>an</strong><br />
import<strong>an</strong>t part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> natural defences <strong>of</strong><br />
Healthy coral reefs support much<br />
biodiversity <strong>in</strong> our oce<strong>an</strong>s, but <strong>the</strong>y are<br />
vulnerable to impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Credit: BdaReef. TMurdoch 2005<br />
several <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>an</strong>d play a role <strong>in</strong> water<br />
quality m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>an</strong>d erosion control.<br />
They are also wildlife habitats <strong>an</strong>d<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g grounds for some mar<strong>in</strong>e<br />
species.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d sea level rise contribute<br />
to coastal erosion, l<strong>an</strong>dward <strong>in</strong>trusion<br />
<strong>of</strong> seawater, flood<strong>in</strong>g (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g<br />
higher storm surge flood<strong>in</strong>g), damage to<br />
coral reefs from bleach<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d disease,<br />
destruction <strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong>groves <strong>an</strong>d sea grass<br />
Box 7. Possible <strong>in</strong>tensification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> El Niño Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oscillation<br />
The natural pattern <strong>of</strong> El Niño/ La Niña events appears to be ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g. The evidence is<br />
not yet conclusive, but it seems that s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> 1970s <strong>the</strong> events are becom<strong>in</strong>g stronger<br />
<strong>an</strong>d more frequent, with little return to normal conditions <strong>in</strong> between. <strong>Climate</strong> scientists<br />
are beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g to look at <strong>the</strong> relationship between this phenomenon <strong>an</strong>d global warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to ascerta<strong>in</strong> if <strong>an</strong>d to what extent hum<strong>an</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> may be play<strong>in</strong>g a role<br />
<strong>in</strong> this. Intensification <strong>of</strong> ENSO would have climate <strong>an</strong>d economic implications globally,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g for <strong>UKOTs</strong>.<br />
45
eds, higher seas surface temperatures<br />
<strong>an</strong>d reduced sea ice cover.<br />
Biodiversity: The biodiversity resources<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> make a signific<strong>an</strong>t contribution<br />
to global biodiversity (Jo<strong>in</strong>t Nature Conservation<br />
Committee, 2006). These ma<strong>in</strong>ly<br />
small <strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong>ten isolated locations have a<br />
high degree <strong>of</strong> endemism. This me<strong>an</strong>s<br />
m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals found on<br />
<strong>the</strong>m occur nowhere else <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world. Of<br />
globally threatened species identified <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> 2007 IUCN Red List, 61 critically<br />
46<br />
Some commercially valuable fish species<br />
will not survive <strong>in</strong>creased sea temperatures,<br />
threaten<strong>in</strong>g fisherfolk livelihoods.<br />
Credit: Steve Freem<strong>an</strong><br />
Box 8. What <strong>the</strong> term<strong>in</strong>ology me<strong>an</strong>s<br />
end<strong>an</strong>gered species are found <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> 12 , compared to five <strong>in</strong> metropolit<strong>an</strong><br />
UK. Fifty-eight end<strong>an</strong>gered species<br />
occur <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> territories (10 <strong>in</strong> metropolit<strong>an</strong><br />
UK) along with 168 vulnerable species<br />
(23 <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> metropolit<strong>an</strong> UK) (IUCN, 2007).<br />
The biodiversity <strong>of</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> is under threat.<br />
There are more th<strong>an</strong> 200 endemic pl<strong>an</strong>t<br />
species, 20 known endemic bird species,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 500 endemic <strong>in</strong>vertebrates <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>. There are also, however, 39<br />
recorded ext<strong>in</strong>ctions <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas<br />
Territories <strong>an</strong>d two species are ext<strong>in</strong>ct <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> wild. The latest ext<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Overseas<br />
Territories, namely that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> St.<br />
Helena olive (Nesiota elliptica), occurred<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2003 when <strong>the</strong> last tree <strong>in</strong> cultivation<br />
died (<strong>JNCC</strong>, 2006).<br />
In addition to <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> globally threatened<br />
species, <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> also hold regionally<br />
or globally import<strong>an</strong>t concentrations <strong>of</strong><br />
species. For example, Ascension Isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
supports <strong>the</strong> second largest green turtle<br />
rookery <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Atl<strong>an</strong>tic; Gough Isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
(Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha) has been described as<br />
<strong>the</strong> world’s most import<strong>an</strong>t seabird isl<strong>an</strong>d;<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> reefs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Chagos Archipelago<br />
(British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory) are considered<br />
to be some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most prist<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d<br />
best protected <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> (<strong>an</strong>d<br />
account for some 1.3 per cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> world<br />
resource). The import<strong>an</strong>ce to nature conservation<br />
<strong>of</strong> parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Territories is<br />
A pl<strong>an</strong>t or <strong>an</strong>imal is critically end<strong>an</strong>gered when it is considered to be fac<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong><br />
extremely high risk <strong>of</strong> ext<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild. Ext<strong>in</strong>ct <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild me<strong>an</strong>s a pl<strong>an</strong>t or<br />
<strong>an</strong>imal is known only to survive <strong>in</strong> cultivation, <strong>in</strong> captivity or as a naturalised<br />
population (or populations) well outside <strong>the</strong> past r<strong>an</strong>ge.<br />
A pl<strong>an</strong>t or <strong>an</strong>imal is end<strong>an</strong>gered when it is considered to be fac<strong>in</strong>g a very high risk <strong>of</strong><br />
ext<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild.<br />
A pl<strong>an</strong>t or <strong>an</strong>imal is vulnerable when it is considered to be fac<strong>in</strong>g a high risk <strong>of</strong><br />
ext<strong>in</strong>ction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wild.<br />
Source: IUCN (http://www.iucn.org)<br />
12 These figures <strong>in</strong>clude all <strong>of</strong> Cyprus <strong>an</strong>d Antarctic as <strong>the</strong> IUCN figures for Cyprus SBA <strong>an</strong>d BAT are not broken down to<br />
this level.
Box 9. Why is biodiversity import<strong>an</strong>t to us?<br />
The term biodiversity or biological diversity refers to <strong>the</strong> variety <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>t <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imal<br />
life on Earth. It <strong>in</strong>cludes <strong>the</strong> different ecosystems <strong>an</strong>d habitats, <strong>the</strong> r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> species<br />
found <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>m <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> variation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir genetic makeup.<br />
All <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se come toge<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> natural environment <strong>an</strong>d support hum<strong>an</strong> existence by<br />
provid<strong>in</strong>g direct <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>direct benefits. These <strong>in</strong>clude ecosystem goods <strong>an</strong>d services like<br />
food, water, timber, genetic material for medic<strong>in</strong>es <strong>an</strong>d cosmetics, as well as regulation<br />
<strong>of</strong> climate, flood<strong>in</strong>g, water quality. Biodiversity also supports ecological processes that<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> environment, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g poll<strong>in</strong>ation <strong>an</strong>d soil formation. The benefits <strong>of</strong><br />
biodiversity also <strong>in</strong>clude social benefits such as recreation, aes<strong>the</strong>tic enjoyment,<br />
spiritual fulfillment, tourism, education <strong>an</strong>d research. Biodiversity is also import<strong>an</strong>t <strong>in</strong><br />
its own right; natural heritage is every bit as precious as cultural heritage.<br />
Preserv<strong>in</strong>g biodiversity is import<strong>an</strong>t for ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g known benefits, goods <strong>an</strong>d<br />
services, as well as safeguard<strong>in</strong>g potential benefits. As species are lost, so too is <strong>the</strong><br />
potential <strong>the</strong>y may <strong>of</strong>fer for new fibres, fuels, medic<strong>in</strong>es, <strong>an</strong>d crops, among o<strong>the</strong>r th<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />
recognised through <strong>the</strong> designation as<br />
World Heritage Sites <strong>of</strong> Gough Isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Inaccessible Isl<strong>an</strong>ds (Trist<strong>an</strong>) <strong>an</strong>d Henderson<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>d (Pitcairn) for <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>in</strong>sular<br />
natural heritage <strong>in</strong>terests (<strong>JNCC</strong>, 2006).<br />
One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> impacts associated with climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is species exp<strong>an</strong>sion, that is, <strong>the</strong><br />
migration <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals to new<br />
r<strong>an</strong>ges for all or part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir life cycle<br />
because <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d climatic conditions<br />
that allow <strong>the</strong>m to thrive outside <strong>the</strong>ir usual<br />
r<strong>an</strong>ge. In <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> natural predators<br />
or competitors, <strong>the</strong>y sometimes <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> bal<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>of</strong> species <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> new location.<br />
Conversely, <strong>the</strong>y create room for o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
species to become established. Ch<strong>an</strong>ges,<br />
over time, could lead to a considerable<br />
decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> populations <strong>of</strong> some pl<strong>an</strong>ts<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals, or even <strong>the</strong>ir local or global<br />
ext<strong>in</strong>ction. Besides prompt<strong>in</strong>g <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong><br />
species r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>an</strong>d abund<strong>an</strong>ce, climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> affects species composition, or<br />
<strong>the</strong> variety <strong>of</strong> species found <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> area.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not <strong>the</strong> only threat to<br />
ecosystems <strong>an</strong>d habitats, but <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong><br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> on <strong>the</strong>m re<strong>in</strong>force just how<br />
import<strong>an</strong>t it is to conserve biodiversity<br />
resources to m<strong>in</strong>imise <strong>the</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> species.<br />
Although biodiversity is threatened by climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, proper m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>of</strong> biodiversity<br />
resources c<strong>an</strong> reduce <strong>the</strong><br />
impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
ways <strong>in</strong> which this c<strong>an</strong> be done <strong>in</strong>clude:<br />
• protect<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d enh<strong>an</strong>c<strong>in</strong>g ecosystem<br />
services;<br />
• m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g habitats for end<strong>an</strong>gered<br />
species;<br />
• creat<strong>in</strong>g refuges <strong>an</strong>d buffer zones; <strong>an</strong>d<br />
• establish<strong>in</strong>g networks <strong>of</strong> terrestrial,<br />
freshwater <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e protected areas<br />
that take <strong>in</strong>to account projected<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> climate (Secretariat <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Convention on Biological Diversity,<br />
2007).<br />
3.2 Regional trends <strong>an</strong>d<br />
national impacts<br />
3.2.1 Antarctic <strong>an</strong>d sub-Antarctic<br />
There are two <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>in</strong> this region: <strong>the</strong><br />
British Antarctic Territory <strong>an</strong>d South<br />
Georgia <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> South S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds.<br />
47
Observed <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
Data <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>formation from <strong>the</strong> British<br />
Antarctic Survey (2007) highlight <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
trends:<br />
• Temperature trends vary across Antarctica.<br />
The west coast <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic<br />
Pen<strong>in</strong>sula is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most rapidly<br />
warm<strong>in</strong>g areas <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>et. S<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong><br />
1940s when records for <strong>the</strong> area beg<strong>an</strong>,<br />
<strong>the</strong> temperature <strong>the</strong>re has <strong>in</strong>creased by<br />
almost 3°C, or 10 times <strong>the</strong> me<strong>an</strong> rate <strong>of</strong><br />
global warm<strong>in</strong>g. Warm<strong>in</strong>g has been<br />
slower on <strong>the</strong> eastern side <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> pen<strong>in</strong>sula,<br />
with <strong>the</strong> greatest temperature<br />
<strong>in</strong>creases occurr<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> summer <strong>an</strong>d<br />
autumn. The temperature <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> high<br />
plateau <strong>of</strong> East Antarctica, which<br />
<strong>in</strong>cludes <strong>the</strong> area around <strong>the</strong> South<br />
Pole, appears not to have <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d<br />
much.<br />
• There has been considerable warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oce<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> waters<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic Circumpolar Current<br />
(ACC) are warm<strong>in</strong>g more rapidly th<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> global oce<strong>an</strong>. S<strong>in</strong>ce 1955, upper<br />
oce<strong>an</strong> temperatures to <strong>the</strong> west <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
pen<strong>in</strong>sula have <strong>in</strong>creased by more th<strong>an</strong><br />
1°C s<strong>in</strong>ce 1955.<br />
• In keep<strong>in</strong>g with global trends, <strong>the</strong><br />
troposphere (or lowest layer <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
48<br />
Sea ice cover has shrunk <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> seas to <strong>the</strong><br />
west <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic Pen<strong>in</strong>sula but<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased elsewhere <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic.<br />
Credit: Pete Bucktrout/BAS<br />
atmosphere), above <strong>the</strong> Antarctic has<br />
warmed <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> stratosphere (<strong>the</strong> next<br />
layer up) has cooled. However, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
lower levels <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> troposphere, at<br />
heights <strong>of</strong> 5 km above <strong>the</strong> Antarctic,<br />
<strong>the</strong> 30-year warm<strong>in</strong>g trend is more th<strong>an</strong><br />
three times <strong>the</strong> average rate <strong>of</strong><br />
warm<strong>in</strong>g for <strong>the</strong> Earth as a whole.<br />
• There has been <strong>an</strong> overall <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong><br />
sea ice extent, but this is distributed<br />
unevenly: sea ice cover has shrunk <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> seas to <strong>the</strong> west <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic<br />
Pen<strong>in</strong>sula but <strong>in</strong>creased elsewhere <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Antarctic.<br />
Projections<br />
• IPCC projections for loss <strong>of</strong> summer<br />
sea ice r<strong>an</strong>ge from a slight <strong>in</strong>crease to<br />
near-complete loss.<br />
• Warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>an</strong>d oce<strong>an</strong><br />
around Antarctica could lead to loss <strong>of</strong><br />
mass from <strong>the</strong> Antarctic ice sheets, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
this could make a signific<strong>an</strong>t contribution<br />
to sea level rise.<br />
• As <strong>the</strong> climatic barriers that protect<br />
polar species from competition are lowered,<br />
<strong>the</strong> part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic may see<br />
<strong>the</strong> encroachment <strong>of</strong> alien species.<br />
The decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> sea ice <strong>in</strong> sections <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Antarctic is lead<strong>in</strong>g to a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Adélie Pengu<strong>in</strong> population.<br />
Credit: Chris Gilbert/BAS
Country Impacts<br />
South<br />
Georgia <strong>an</strong>d<br />
South<br />
S<strong>an</strong>dwich<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Table 1. Country impacts – Sub-Antarctic<br />
An <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> sea temperature could lead to a movement or loss <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> fish stocks that support fisheries <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> seabirds <strong>an</strong>d<br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>imals found <strong>in</strong> South Georgia, such as albatross, prions,<br />
petrels, pengu<strong>in</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d seals.<br />
Sea level rise could threaten beaches where fur seals <strong>an</strong>d eleph<strong>an</strong>t<br />
seals breed <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> tussac grass communities where <strong>the</strong> endemic<br />
South Georgia pipit (Anthus <strong>an</strong>tarcticus) lives <strong>an</strong>d breeds.<br />
Glaciers currently play <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t role <strong>in</strong> conta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g rats, mice <strong>an</strong>d<br />
re<strong>in</strong>deer. At present rats occupy 65 per cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastl<strong>in</strong>e; mice are<br />
restricted to one area, <strong>an</strong>d re<strong>in</strong>deer to two. Glacial retreat would<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> habitat <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se <strong>in</strong>vasive species, which would end<strong>an</strong>ger<br />
<strong>the</strong> pipit <strong>an</strong>d lead to loss <strong>of</strong> habitat for certa<strong>in</strong> burrow<strong>in</strong>g petrel<br />
species.<br />
Source: D. Christie, Environment Officer, Government <strong>of</strong> South Georgia <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> South S<strong>an</strong>dwich Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Implications <strong>an</strong>d possible future<br />
impacts<br />
• The Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Oce<strong>an</strong>’s carbon absorptive<br />
capacity has been weakened s<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
1981; <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> oce<strong>an</strong> temperatures<br />
currents <strong>an</strong>d sea ice could fur<strong>the</strong>r affect<br />
its capacity to absorb carbon dioxide.<br />
• Most environmental <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> has taken<br />
place <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Antarctic pen<strong>in</strong>sula where<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> has been largest. S<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
<strong>the</strong> 1970s, <strong>the</strong> population <strong>of</strong> krill, <strong>the</strong> t<strong>in</strong>y<br />
shrimp-like creatures that are major part<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> diet <strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong>y Antarctic species,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g whales, pengu<strong>in</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d seals,<br />
has been <strong>in</strong> decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d this is believed<br />
to be l<strong>in</strong>ked to warm<strong>in</strong>g waters. With <strong>the</strong><br />
decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>of</strong> krill, <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t l<strong>in</strong>k <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Antarctic food cha<strong>in</strong> is be<strong>in</strong>g broken.<br />
• The Adélie pengu<strong>in</strong> (Pygoscelis<br />
adeliae), which is well adapted to sea<br />
ice conditions, is <strong>in</strong> decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d is be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
replaced by open water species, such<br />
as <strong>the</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>strap pengu<strong>in</strong> (Pygoscelis<br />
<strong>an</strong>tarctica) (Fraser et al., 1992 cited <strong>in</strong><br />
BAS, 2007).<br />
3.2.2 Bermuda<br />
Observed <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
• There has been <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> frequency<br />
<strong>an</strong>d magnitude <strong>of</strong> coral disease<br />
<strong>an</strong>d bleach<strong>in</strong>g events over <strong>the</strong> last three<br />
decades.<br />
• Data from <strong>the</strong> Bermuda Atl<strong>an</strong>tic Timeseries<br />
Study station show carbon<br />
dioxide levels at <strong>the</strong> oce<strong>an</strong> surface <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Sargasso Sea sou<strong>the</strong>ast <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Bermuda Tri<strong>an</strong>gle are ris<strong>in</strong>g at about<br />
<strong>the</strong> same rate as atmospheric carbon<br />
dioxide. The <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is even greater at<br />
deeper levels: <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> waters between<br />
250 <strong>an</strong>d 450 m deep, carbon dioxide<br />
levels are ris<strong>in</strong>g at nearly twice <strong>the</strong> rate<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> surface waters (Glick, 2004).<br />
Implications <strong>an</strong>d possible future<br />
impacts<br />
• Bermuda’s m<strong>an</strong>grove forests are threatened<br />
by salt water <strong>in</strong>undation due to<br />
ris<strong>in</strong>g sea levels. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is contribut<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to <strong>the</strong> death <strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong>groves at<br />
<strong>the</strong> Hungry Bay M<strong>an</strong>grove Swamp, a<br />
49
designated wetl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
import<strong>an</strong>ce under <strong>the</strong> Ramsar Convention.<br />
This m<strong>an</strong>grove forest is considered<br />
to be “<strong>in</strong> retreat.”<br />
• Turtle nest<strong>in</strong>g sites are subject to erosion<br />
from tropical storms <strong>an</strong>d hurric<strong>an</strong>es<br />
that affect <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d.<br />
• Bermuda’s coral system is dist<strong>in</strong>ctive<br />
for be<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> most nor<strong>the</strong>rly <strong>of</strong> its k<strong>in</strong>d<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world <strong>an</strong>d is among <strong>the</strong> more<br />
geographically isolated reefs. The fate<br />
<strong>of</strong> this reef system is l<strong>in</strong>ked to those <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>, which seed <strong>the</strong>m. The<br />
decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> coral (see section<br />
3.2.3) will likely affect coral dispersal<br />
<strong>an</strong>d gene flow to Bermuda, <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> geographically isolation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
system <strong>the</strong>re. Limited genetic variation<br />
with<strong>in</strong> isolated populations <strong>in</strong> marg<strong>in</strong>al<br />
environments, like <strong>the</strong> North Atl<strong>an</strong>tic,<br />
could lead to a weaken<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coral’s<br />
capacity to respond to or recover from<br />
environmental disturb<strong>an</strong>ces. Local<br />
coral deaths, whe<strong>the</strong>r caused by pollution,<br />
dredg<strong>in</strong>g, disease outbreaks, hurric<strong>an</strong>e<br />
damage or <strong>the</strong>rmally <strong>in</strong>duced<br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g, will have last<strong>in</strong>g effects<br />
(Jones, 2004).<br />
3.2.3 The Caribbe<strong>an</strong><br />
There are five <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>in</strong> this region:<br />
Anguilla, <strong>the</strong> British Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>the</strong><br />
Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, Montserrat <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Turks<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Caicos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds.<br />
50<br />
The Cahow (Pterodroma cahow) is <strong>an</strong><br />
end<strong>an</strong>gered species endemic to Bermuda.<br />
Credit: Andy Dobson<br />
Observed <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
Accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> PRECIS project (2005),<br />
research by <strong>in</strong>stitutions <strong>in</strong> Cuba <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Jamaica show <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g regional<br />
trends:<br />
• The me<strong>an</strong> temperatures <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> territories show <strong>an</strong> upward<br />
trend over <strong>the</strong> last 30 years.<br />
• At <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1970s, signific<strong>an</strong>t<br />
warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> lower part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
was detected <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> region. The<br />
warm<strong>in</strong>g supports <strong>the</strong> idea that<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s are occurr<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> background<br />
climate conditions. It is also consistent<br />
with signific<strong>an</strong>t variations <strong>in</strong> circulation<br />
patterns that have been detected over<br />
<strong>the</strong> North-Pacific sector <strong>of</strong> North<br />
America for <strong>the</strong> same period.<br />
• The upward trend <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> me<strong>an</strong> temperatures<br />
seems to be largely driven by<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> m<strong>in</strong>imum temperatures.<br />
• The diurnal temperature r<strong>an</strong>ge is<br />
decreas<strong>in</strong>g, consistent with global<br />
trends. From <strong>the</strong> 1950s to <strong>the</strong> present, a<br />
2°C <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> has been detected for <strong>the</strong><br />
region.<br />
• The number <strong>of</strong> very warm days <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
region is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g, but <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong><br />
very cold nights is decreas<strong>in</strong>g (1950s to<br />
present).<br />
• The frequency <strong>of</strong> droughts has<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased signific<strong>an</strong>tly s<strong>in</strong>ce 1960.<br />
A 2001 study <strong>of</strong> recent global <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong><br />
precipitation found that conditions <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Eastern Caribbe<strong>an</strong> (which <strong>in</strong>cludes<br />
Anguilla, <strong>the</strong> British Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Montserrat) have been slightly drier, while<br />
those <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn Caribbe<strong>an</strong> (which<br />
<strong>in</strong>cludes <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Turks<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Caicos Isl<strong>an</strong>ds) have been wetter<br />
(New et al., 2001 cited <strong>in</strong> Sear et al., 2001).<br />
Projections<br />
As with isl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific <strong>an</strong>d Indi<strong>an</strong><br />
Oce<strong>an</strong>s, rates <strong>of</strong> warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>
are expected to be lower th<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong> global<br />
average (IPCC, 2007). Accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong><br />
Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g Adaptation to <strong>Climate</strong><br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (MACC) Project <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>,<br />
temperature <strong>in</strong>creases are expected to be<br />
between 2.0°C <strong>an</strong>d 2.8°C for <strong>the</strong> 2050s<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 3.1°C to 4.3°C for <strong>the</strong> 2080s. Marg<strong>in</strong>al<br />
<strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall are expected, <strong>an</strong>d ra<strong>in</strong>fall<br />
patterns could <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, but it is not yet<br />
known how. MACC reports that sea level is<br />
expected to rise by about 38 cm between<br />
1990 <strong>an</strong>d 2080. Hurric<strong>an</strong>e <strong>in</strong>tensity is likely<br />
to <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>an</strong>d higher temperatures could<br />
lead to a greater <strong>in</strong>cidence <strong>of</strong> vector borne<br />
diseases, such as dengue <strong>an</strong>d malaria<br />
(Chen et al., 2006).<br />
Implications <strong>an</strong>d possible future<br />
impacts<br />
Economy: More th<strong>an</strong> half <strong>the</strong> population <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> live with<strong>in</strong> 1.5 km <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
coastal zone. Damage to <strong>the</strong> coastal zone<br />
tr<strong>an</strong>slates <strong>in</strong>to damage to a considerable<br />
proportion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>frastructure, hum<strong>an</strong> settlements<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se countries.<br />
There are <strong>the</strong> direct costs <strong>of</strong> repair<strong>in</strong>g<br />
damage caused by storms <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
wea<strong>the</strong>r events, as well as <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>direct<br />
costs <strong>of</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> productivity <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>come<br />
Road tr<strong>an</strong>sportation – 6.81%<br />
Telecommunications – 2.78%<br />
Public build<strong>in</strong>gs – 1.48%<br />
Emergency assist<strong>an</strong>ce – 0.12%<br />
Environment - 0.37%<br />
Education - 1.57%<br />
Health – 0.66%<br />
Hous<strong>in</strong>g - 50.50%<br />
Agriculture - .20%<br />
Commerce – 16.20%<br />
Tourism – 16.16%<br />
Electricity - 2.41%<br />
Water <strong>an</strong>d wastewater - 0.20%<br />
Ports <strong>an</strong>d airports – 0.56%<br />
Figure 11. Breakdown <strong>of</strong> damage <strong>an</strong>d losses<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, Hurric<strong>an</strong>e Iv<strong>an</strong> 2004<br />
Source: Zapata Martí, 2005<br />
The galliwasp Diploglossus montisserrati, is a<br />
critically end<strong>an</strong>gered species, endemic to<br />
Montserrat. Credit: C. McCauley, Centre Hills Project<br />
forgone from badly affected <strong>in</strong>dustries <strong>an</strong>d<br />
sectors.<br />
A study by <strong>the</strong> United Nations Economic<br />
Commission on Lat<strong>in</strong> America <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> (ECLAC) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economic<br />
impact <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 2004 hurric<strong>an</strong>e season <strong>in</strong> six<br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> countries, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds, found that 76 per cent <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> total impact was made up <strong>of</strong> actual<br />
physical damage to assets (houses, bus<strong>in</strong>esses,<br />
roads <strong>an</strong>d bridges, utilities,<br />
schools, hospitals <strong>an</strong>d cl<strong>in</strong>ics, etc.)<br />
(Zapata Martí, 2005). Most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> damage<br />
affected <strong>the</strong> social sectors (47.5 per cent).<br />
Damage <strong>an</strong>d losses to <strong>in</strong>frastructure <strong>an</strong>d<br />
utilities such as electricity, water <strong>an</strong>d s<strong>an</strong>itation,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d tr<strong>an</strong>sport accounted for 15.6<br />
per cent, <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> direct environmental<br />
impact was calculated at 1.3 per cent s<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
most <strong>of</strong> natural resources were expected<br />
to recuperate (Zapata Martí, 2005:42).<br />
Figure 11 shows <strong>the</strong> breakdown <strong>of</strong> damage<br />
<strong>an</strong>d losses <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds from<br />
Hurric<strong>an</strong>e Iv<strong>an</strong>. Hous<strong>in</strong>g suffered <strong>the</strong><br />
greatest proportion <strong>of</strong> damage, followed<br />
by commerce <strong>an</strong>d tourism.<br />
There are <strong>the</strong> longer-term costs <strong>of</strong><br />
decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g production <strong>in</strong> key sectors – agriculture<br />
<strong>an</strong>d fisheries <strong>an</strong>d potentially<br />
tourism, as well as <strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> loss <strong>of</strong><br />
ecosystem services.<br />
51
Higher temperatures <strong>an</strong>d variability <strong>in</strong><br />
water supplies <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> could<br />
tr<strong>an</strong>slate <strong>in</strong>to <strong>in</strong>creased tr<strong>an</strong>smission <strong>of</strong><br />
dengue fever. Drier conditions associated<br />
with El Niño events, which seem to be gett<strong>in</strong>g<br />
more frequent, <strong>of</strong>ten give rise to <strong>the</strong><br />
need for water storage, which provides<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g habitats for <strong>the</strong> Aedes aegypti<br />
mosquito that tr<strong>an</strong>smits dengue. Breed<strong>in</strong>g<br />
habitats also <strong>in</strong>crease after heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s,<br />
such as tropical cyclones. Warmer temperatures<br />
hasten <strong>the</strong> larval stage <strong>of</strong> mosquitoes,<br />
caus<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m to be smaller <strong>an</strong>d to<br />
52<br />
Country Impacts<br />
Anguilla<br />
British Virg<strong>in</strong><br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Caym<strong>an</strong><br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Montserrat<br />
Turks <strong>an</strong>d<br />
Caicos<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Table 2. Country impacts – Caribbe<strong>an</strong><br />
Depletion <strong>of</strong> fish stocks.<br />
Beach erosion, compounded by development <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal zone.<br />
A longer dry season <strong>an</strong>d decreased availability <strong>of</strong> water could affect<br />
agriculture.<br />
Sea level rise will <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>of</strong> salt-water contam<strong>in</strong>ation <strong>of</strong> rivers<br />
<strong>an</strong>d salt-water <strong>in</strong>trusion <strong>of</strong> ground water, which will jeopardise<br />
agricultural production <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong>d around coastal communities.<br />
Increased hurric<strong>an</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d storm <strong>in</strong>tensity could disrupt s<strong>an</strong>itation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
sewerage disposal systems as well as cause damage to coastal<br />
communities <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>frastructure.<br />
Coral bleach<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Low-ly<strong>in</strong>g Anegada is vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> sea level rise <strong>an</strong>d to<br />
storm surges <strong>an</strong>d wave action dur<strong>in</strong>g hurric<strong>an</strong>es.<br />
Coral bleach<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Beach erosion <strong>an</strong>d destruction <strong>of</strong> turtle nest<strong>in</strong>g sites.<br />
As low-ly<strong>in</strong>g isl<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds are vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong><br />
seal level rise <strong>an</strong>d to storm surges <strong>an</strong>d wave action dur<strong>in</strong>g hurric<strong>an</strong>es.<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> coastal vegetation.<br />
Coral bleach<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Sea level rise will <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>of</strong> sal<strong>in</strong>ation <strong>of</strong> rivers <strong>an</strong>d salt-water<br />
<strong>in</strong>trusion <strong>of</strong> ground water, which will jeopardise agricultural production<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong>d around coastal communities.<br />
need to feed more frequently. Higher temperatures<br />
also reduce <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>cubation<br />
period for <strong>the</strong> parasite that causes<br />
dengue. At 30°C, dengue type 2 has <strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>cubation period <strong>of</strong> 12 days, but only<br />
seven days at 32°C - 35°C. The projected<br />
2°C <strong>in</strong>creased <strong>in</strong> temperature by 2080<br />
could lead to a three-fold <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
rate <strong>of</strong> tr<strong>an</strong>smission <strong>of</strong> dengue fever <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> (Chen et al., 2006).<br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> coral reefs are threatened by<br />
over fish<strong>in</strong>g, disease, pollution <strong>an</strong>d run-<strong>of</strong>f
M<strong>an</strong>grove <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> British Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Credit: BVI National Trust<br />
from agriculture, <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>an</strong>d hum<strong>an</strong> settlements<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal zone. The <strong>in</strong>tensity<br />
<strong>of</strong> hurric<strong>an</strong>es is also plac<strong>in</strong>g stress on<br />
corals. The region’s reefs have experienced<br />
a massive decl<strong>in</strong>e from approximately<br />
50 per cent coral cover to less th<strong>an</strong><br />
10 per cent (Jones, 2004). Reefs are likely<br />
to be affected by a higher <strong>in</strong>cidence <strong>of</strong><br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d die-out due to higher water<br />
temperatures. Additionally, <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong><br />
oce<strong>an</strong> chemistry that are <strong>the</strong> result <strong>of</strong><br />
higher levels <strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere are contribut<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> weaken<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>of</strong> coral skeletons (Jones, 2004).<br />
Across <strong>the</strong> region, m<strong>an</strong>groves are threatened<br />
by development <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal zone<br />
<strong>an</strong>d conversion to o<strong>the</strong>r uses. M<strong>an</strong>groves<br />
are <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t element <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal<br />
defence system. They provide protection<br />
aga<strong>in</strong>st cyclones, storm surges, <strong>an</strong>d tides.<br />
They are also nurseries <strong>an</strong>d habitats for<br />
m<strong>an</strong>y mar<strong>in</strong>e species <strong>an</strong>d play a role <strong>in</strong> filter<strong>in</strong>g<br />
run-<strong>of</strong>f from <strong>the</strong> l<strong>an</strong>d. M<strong>an</strong>groves are<br />
sensitive to <strong>the</strong> threat <strong>of</strong> sea level rise, particularly<br />
from <strong>in</strong>creased sal<strong>in</strong>ation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
ecosystem. This sensitivity is heightened<br />
by <strong>the</strong> pressures <strong>the</strong>y are already fac<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Over time, higher sea levels are likely to<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>the</strong> size <strong>an</strong>d distribution <strong>of</strong> coastal<br />
wetl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>of</strong> flood<strong>in</strong>g<br />
(Wall, 1998 <strong>an</strong>d Nicholas et al., 1999 cited<br />
<strong>in</strong> Sear et al., 2001).<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is expected to have longterm<br />
impacts on biodiversity <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong>, particularly <strong>in</strong> mar<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d<br />
coastal ecosystems. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not<br />
<strong>the</strong> only threat to <strong>the</strong> region’s biodiversity,<br />
but it <strong>in</strong>tensifies <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r threats<br />
<strong>an</strong>d vulnerabilities.<br />
A 0.5 m <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> sea level is expected to<br />
result <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> just over one third <strong>of</strong><br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e turtle nest<strong>in</strong>g sites <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> (Fish et al., 2005, cited <strong>in</strong><br />
Mimura et al., 2007). This is not <strong>the</strong> only<br />
potential threat to turtles. Sea level rise,<br />
<strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> water temperature, storm<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
<strong>an</strong>d ra<strong>in</strong>fall could also damage reefs<br />
<strong>an</strong>d sea grass beds, <strong>the</strong> forag<strong>in</strong>g habitats<br />
<strong>of</strong> sea turtles. Temperature also plays a<br />
role <strong>in</strong> determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g turtle sex: eggs <strong>in</strong>cubated<br />
<strong>in</strong> warmer waters produce females<br />
<strong>an</strong>d those nurtured <strong>in</strong> cooler temperatures<br />
produce males. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> Mar<strong>in</strong>e<br />
Conservation Society <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK, natural<br />
sex ratios <strong>an</strong>d reproduction could be<br />
affected if mar<strong>in</strong>e turtles do not <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>ir nest<strong>in</strong>g seasons (Mar<strong>in</strong>e Conservation<br />
Society, 2008).<br />
Commercially valuable fish species such<br />
as tuna (Thunnus albacares), <strong>an</strong>d parrotfish<br />
(Scaridae), would not survive a 1°C<br />
rise <strong>in</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> Sea temperature <strong>an</strong>d<br />
would migrate fur<strong>the</strong>r north as formerly<br />
cold waters become milder. Loss <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
parrotfish would affect coral reef health as<br />
well as fisheries. This favourite on<br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> tables plays <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t role<br />
<strong>in</strong> keep<strong>in</strong>g corals free <strong>of</strong> algae. Without it,<br />
unchecked algae could smo<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> reefs<br />
<strong>an</strong>d cause <strong>the</strong>m to die (Moxam, 2008).<br />
3.2.4 British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory<br />
The British Indi<strong>an</strong> Oce<strong>an</strong> Territory has one<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> largest <strong>an</strong>d most isolated coral reef<br />
<strong>an</strong>d isl<strong>an</strong>d systems. Because it is largely<br />
un<strong>in</strong>habited, it is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> few rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
tropical areas that could be used as a reference<br />
location for observ<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> impacts<br />
53
54<br />
Corals killed by sea warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> BIOT<br />
Credit: Charles Sheppard<br />
<strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> without <strong>the</strong> presence <strong>of</strong><br />
hum<strong>an</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced environmental stresses,<br />
such as pollution <strong>an</strong>d l<strong>an</strong>d-use <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
coastal zone.<br />
Observed <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
• Ris<strong>in</strong>g sea temperatures have contributed<br />
to <strong>the</strong> death <strong>of</strong> coral reefs.<br />
There have been several coral<br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g episodes follow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> major<br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g event <strong>in</strong> 1998, which<br />
destroyed some 80 per cent <strong>of</strong> live coral<br />
cover to a depth <strong>of</strong> 30 m after sea surface<br />
temperatures rose to almost 30°C<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Chagos Archipelago. Bleach<strong>in</strong>g<br />
events have taken place as recently as<br />
2004.<br />
• Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds are experienc<strong>in</strong>g<br />
coastal erosion caused by sea level rise<br />
<strong>an</strong>d possibly <strong>the</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> s<strong>an</strong>d production<br />
follow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> mass mortality <strong>of</strong><br />
coral reefs. Some areas have been<br />
more badly affected th<strong>an</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs.<br />
• Sea level rise <strong>in</strong> Diego Garcia has averaged<br />
0.54 cm per year s<strong>in</strong>ce 1986, but<br />
appears to be accelerat<strong>in</strong>g (Sheppard<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Spald<strong>in</strong>g, 2003).<br />
Implications <strong>an</strong>d possible future<br />
impacts<br />
• Loss <strong>of</strong> reefs is lead<strong>in</strong>g to loss <strong>of</strong> some<br />
fish <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r mar<strong>in</strong>e species. The biodiversity<br />
<strong>of</strong> reefs <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>ir biological<br />
<strong>in</strong>tegrity is be<strong>in</strong>g compromised.<br />
Same coral species <strong>in</strong> good health<br />
Credit: Charles Sheppard<br />
• Erosion is already caus<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>an</strong>d will cont<strong>in</strong>ue<br />
to cause, damage to <strong>the</strong> shorel<strong>in</strong>e<br />
<strong>an</strong>d to build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>an</strong>d structures along<br />
<strong>the</strong> coast.<br />
• As <strong>the</strong> sea level rises, <strong>the</strong> reef flats (<strong>the</strong><br />
shallow, flattest part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> reef that is<br />
<strong>of</strong>ten uncovered at low tide) at <strong>the</strong> me<strong>an</strong><br />
low tide level will become less effective<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> shorel<strong>in</strong>e protection from<br />
waves.<br />
3.2.5 Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong><br />
There are two <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>in</strong> this region:<br />
Gibraltar <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Sovereign Base Areas <strong>of</strong><br />
Akrotiri <strong>an</strong>d Dhekelia <strong>in</strong> Cyprus.<br />
Observed <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
• El Niño events have been associated<br />
with low ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> western <strong>an</strong>d central<br />
Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>.<br />
• Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> larger river deltas <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
region have been affected by sea level<br />
rise.<br />
• There have been variations <strong>in</strong> sea surface<br />
temperatures over <strong>the</strong> last 120<br />
years, but no clear trend has emerged.<br />
However, deep-water records for <strong>the</strong><br />
western Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> po<strong>in</strong>t to cont<strong>in</strong>uous<br />
warm<strong>in</strong>g from 1959 (Bethoux et al.,<br />
1997 cited <strong>in</strong> Karas, 2000).<br />
• L<strong>an</strong>d records show a warm<strong>in</strong>g trend for<br />
<strong>the</strong> western <strong>an</strong>d central part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
region <strong>an</strong>d a slight cool<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
eastern part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> bas<strong>in</strong>.
• Warmer <strong>an</strong>d drier conditions are partially<br />
responsible for reduced forest productivity<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>creased forest fires <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> Bas<strong>in</strong>.<br />
Projections<br />
• The long-term prospect is for cont<strong>in</strong>ued<br />
warm<strong>in</strong>g as <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>fluence <strong>of</strong> greenhouse<br />
gases <strong>in</strong>creases over time. A<br />
2005 study by WWF found that a global<br />
temperature <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>of</strong> 2°C is likely to<br />
lead to a correspond<strong>in</strong>g warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> 1°C<br />
to 3°C <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>. Temperatures<br />
are likely to be higher <strong>in</strong>l<strong>an</strong>d th<strong>an</strong><br />
along <strong>the</strong> coast <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> largest <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
will take place dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> summer<br />
(Gi<strong>an</strong>nakopolous et al., 2005).<br />
• Precipitation trends are uncerta<strong>in</strong>, but<br />
some models suggest <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>of</strong><br />
up to 10 per cent <strong>in</strong> w<strong>in</strong>ter precipitation<br />
<strong>an</strong>d a decrease <strong>of</strong> 5 to 15 per cent <strong>in</strong><br />
summer precipitation by <strong>the</strong> latter half<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 21st century (Karas, 2000).<br />
• As climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> region, <strong>the</strong><br />
frequency <strong>of</strong> extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r - heat<br />
waves <strong>an</strong>d droughts - will <strong>in</strong>crease.<br />
Droughts are likely to be longer.<br />
Implications <strong>an</strong>d possible future<br />
impacts<br />
• As early as 1990, <strong>the</strong> United Nations<br />
Environment Programme (UNEP)<br />
warned that <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> would<br />
be one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> first regions to feel <strong>the</strong><br />
impact <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> on water<br />
resources. Water is already scarce <strong>in</strong><br />
some parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region <strong>an</strong>d a<br />
decrease <strong>in</strong> precipitation could make<br />
exist<strong>in</strong>g problems even worse. Water<br />
quality could also be affected. Higher<br />
temperatures <strong>an</strong>d evaporation would<br />
cause <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> sal<strong>in</strong>ity <strong>of</strong> lakes<br />
<strong>an</strong>d reservoirs. Sea level rise would<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease saltwater <strong>in</strong>trusion <strong>in</strong>to<br />
aquifers <strong>an</strong>d estuaries (Karas, 2000).<br />
• The areas that are prone to desertification<br />
are likely to <strong>in</strong>crease, as will <strong>the</strong><br />
severity <strong>of</strong> desertification <strong>in</strong> exist<strong>in</strong>g dry<br />
l<strong>an</strong>ds (Karas, 2000).<br />
• There may be a reduction <strong>in</strong> production<br />
<strong>an</strong>d crop yields <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn part <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> bas<strong>in</strong>. Desertification,<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased fire risk, spread <strong>of</strong> pests<br />
<strong>an</strong>d diseases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> region, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> global markets could affect<br />
agriculture to vary<strong>in</strong>g degrees (Karas,<br />
2000).<br />
• Warmer temperatures <strong>in</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn<br />
Europe could encourage people <strong>the</strong>re<br />
to take domestic holidays, ra<strong>the</strong>r th<strong>an</strong><br />
travel to <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong> (Gi<strong>an</strong>nakopolous<br />
et al., 2005). This would<br />
adversely affect <strong>the</strong> economy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>.<br />
Variations <strong>in</strong> precipitation due to climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> are likely to accelerate erosion on <strong>the</strong><br />
eastern side <strong>of</strong> St. Helena. The Great Wood<br />
(shown here) was orig<strong>in</strong>ally populated by<br />
gumwood trees endemic to St Helena. The<br />
whole forest has been destroyed as timber<br />
was used for firewood <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> bark for<br />
t<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g lea<strong>the</strong>r. Domesticated <strong>an</strong>imals<br />
roamed free graz<strong>in</strong>g on new growth. Low<br />
ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> south-easterly w<strong>in</strong>ds are now<br />
<strong>in</strong>strumental <strong>in</strong> ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> exposed<br />
woodl<strong>an</strong>d soil to parched low-grade s<strong>an</strong>d/clay<br />
with low levels <strong>of</strong> nutrient. Heavy ra<strong>in</strong>s c<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> erosion rate; drought reta<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong><br />
conditions for fur<strong>the</strong>r w<strong>in</strong>d based erosion.<br />
Credit: V<strong>in</strong>ce Thompson, St Helena National Trust<br />
55
Ascension<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
St. Helena<br />
Falkl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
Trist<strong>an</strong> da<br />
Cunha 13<br />
56<br />
Country Impacts<br />
Table 3. Country impacts – South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic<br />
Increase <strong>in</strong> sea temperature.<br />
Sea level rise will adversely affect nest<strong>in</strong>g beaches <strong>an</strong>d could cause a drop <strong>in</strong> sea<br />
turtle nest<strong>in</strong>g success due to nest <strong>in</strong>undation.<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> regional seasonal ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns could adv<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> spread <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>vasive pl<strong>an</strong>t species <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>crease erosion.<br />
Fish stocks <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> fish<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustry are at <strong>the</strong> highest risk from climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> air <strong>an</strong>d sea temperatures could <strong>in</strong>fluence wea<strong>the</strong>r patterns <strong>an</strong>d<br />
cause disruption to established w<strong>in</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d ra<strong>in</strong>fall patterns, lead<strong>in</strong>g to floods,<br />
drought, <strong>an</strong>d/or soil erosion.<br />
Research po<strong>in</strong>ts to a strong warm<strong>in</strong>g trend <strong>in</strong> air temperature (2°C over 60<br />
years) <strong>an</strong>d a slight decrease <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall. Over time, <strong>the</strong> latter could have<br />
implications for local water supplies.<br />
Altitud<strong>in</strong>al shifts <strong>in</strong> vegetation zones.<br />
Currently identifiable ecological imbal<strong>an</strong>ces could become even more marked.<br />
Cooler, less sal<strong>in</strong>e water may affect distribution <strong>an</strong>d abund<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>shore fauna <strong>an</strong>d flora.<br />
There is need for more research <strong>an</strong>d data ga<strong>the</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g on <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Falkl<strong>an</strong>ds. To date, little is known about <strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> on pl<strong>an</strong>t communities or about what it me<strong>an</strong>s for whale <strong>an</strong>d dolph<strong>in</strong><br />
communities.<br />
There has been little monitor<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> climate-l<strong>in</strong>ked <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s on Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Gough Isl<strong>an</strong>d, so <strong>the</strong> full extent <strong>of</strong> impacts is unknown. However, <strong>an</strong>ecdotal<br />
evidence <strong>an</strong>d observation <strong>of</strong> certa<strong>in</strong> trends po<strong>in</strong>t to <strong>the</strong> several likely <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s.<br />
Increased <strong>in</strong>vasiveness <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>troduced species due to warmer temperatures.<br />
Species <strong>in</strong>troduced from South Africa, especially <strong>in</strong>vertebrates <strong>an</strong>d pl<strong>an</strong>ts, that<br />
at one time would not survive, may establish <strong>the</strong>mselves.<br />
Warmer temperatures could lead to <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> mouse population<br />
<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> threat to species like <strong>the</strong> Trist<strong>an</strong> albatross (Diomedea dabbenena),<br />
which is already considered ‘critically end<strong>an</strong>gered’.<br />
There may be a potential risk to <strong>the</strong> five seamounts <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds’ exclusive<br />
economic zone.<br />
Coastal areas are likely to be affected if <strong>the</strong>re is a rise <strong>in</strong> seawater, as it could<br />
encroach on <strong>the</strong> native habitat forc<strong>in</strong>g species that breed <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal zone,<br />
such as <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn rockhopper pengu<strong>in</strong> (Eudyptes chrysocome moseleyi) <strong>an</strong>d
Country Impacts<br />
Trist<strong>an</strong> da<br />
Cunha<br />
(cont.)<br />
sub-Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis), to move fur<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>l<strong>an</strong>d.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong>re has been no evidence <strong>of</strong> a <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall at Gough Isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
over <strong>the</strong> last 40 years, <strong>an</strong>ecdotal evidence suggests a seasonal <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>: <strong>in</strong>stead <strong>of</strong><br />
four seasons, w<strong>in</strong>ter appears to go straight <strong>in</strong>to summer <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> summers seem<br />
drier <strong>an</strong>d w<strong>in</strong>ters wetter.<br />
Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> natural ponds/bogs are becom<strong>in</strong>g smaller (ei<strong>the</strong>r dry<strong>in</strong>g up or<br />
be<strong>in</strong>g taken over by Scirpus <strong>an</strong>d Sphagnum bog grass).<br />
Fish<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustry could be negatively affected by warm<strong>in</strong>g temperature. This<br />
could have implications for some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mar<strong>in</strong>e predators.The isl<strong>an</strong>ds are <strong>the</strong><br />
only breed<strong>in</strong>g site <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> middle <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic for several species; o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g areas are 2,000 km away.<br />
Increased storm severity puts <strong>the</strong> sole harbour, which is <strong>the</strong> only me<strong>an</strong>s <strong>of</strong><br />
access to <strong>the</strong> outside world, at risk.<br />
• Fire risk could <strong>in</strong>crease, especially <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>l<strong>an</strong>d locations. The Iberi<strong>an</strong> Pen<strong>in</strong>sula<br />
is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> places where <strong>the</strong> period <strong>of</strong><br />
extreme fire risk would <strong>in</strong>crease.<br />
• Wetl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r ecosystems are at<br />
risk <strong>of</strong> damage or loss as climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> compounds <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r pressures<br />
<strong>the</strong>se natural resources face.<br />
Drier conditions <strong>an</strong>d sea level rise<br />
would affect wetl<strong>an</strong>ds.<br />
3.2.6 South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic<br />
The territories <strong>in</strong> this region are St. Helena<br />
<strong>an</strong>d its dependencies (Ascension Isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>an</strong>d Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha) <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Falkl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds.<br />
Implications <strong>an</strong>d possible future<br />
impacts<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> sea temperature c<strong>an</strong><br />
adversely affect native fish populations<br />
<strong>an</strong>d potentially lead to mass str<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> spawn<strong>in</strong>g season.<br />
Highly migratory fish species, such as tuna<br />
<strong>an</strong>d marl<strong>in</strong> (Istiophoridae), are also highly<br />
13 Source: J. Glass, Department Head,<br />
Agriculture <strong>an</strong>d Natural Resources Department, Trist<strong>an</strong> da Cunha<br />
sought-after sport fish<strong>in</strong>g species. A<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> distribution or abund<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>se fish could lead to a reduction <strong>in</strong><br />
sport fishers <strong>an</strong>d a related loss to <strong>the</strong><br />
tourism sector <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economy.<br />
Cliff nest<strong>in</strong>g seabirds such as black (Anous<br />
m<strong>in</strong>utus) <strong>an</strong>d brown (Anous stolidus) noddies<br />
will be challenged with a higher risk <strong>of</strong><br />
nest failure from sea level rise.<br />
Albatross Chick<br />
Credit: Falkl<strong>an</strong>d Isl<strong>an</strong>ds Conservation<br />
57
3.2.7 South Pacific<br />
There is one UKOT <strong>in</strong> this region: The Pitcairn<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds.<br />
Observed <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
• Annual <strong>an</strong>d seasonal oce<strong>an</strong> surface<br />
<strong>an</strong>d air temperature <strong>in</strong>creased by 0.6°C<br />
to 1°C s<strong>in</strong>ce 1910 <strong>in</strong> much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific.<br />
• There has been a signific<strong>an</strong>t decrease<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>an</strong>nual number <strong>of</strong> cool days <strong>an</strong>d<br />
cool nights, particularly after El Niño<br />
events, for <strong>the</strong> period 1961 to 2003.<br />
• Sea level rise has varied across <strong>the</strong><br />
region, r<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g from 1.5 mm to more<br />
th<strong>an</strong> 3 mm per year.<br />
• There has been <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> tropical<br />
storm <strong>in</strong>tensity. <strong>Climate</strong> scientists have<br />
observed a correlation between ENSO<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> tracks, density <strong>an</strong>d occurence<br />
<strong>of</strong> cyclones (Walsh, 2004 cited <strong>in</strong><br />
Mimura et al., 2007).<br />
Projections<br />
The IPCC suggests that <strong>the</strong> climate <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Pacific could be <strong>in</strong> a perm<strong>an</strong>ent El Niño<br />
state with global temperature <strong>in</strong>creases.<br />
A World B<strong>an</strong>k study <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> potential<br />
impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> scenarios <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Pacific (World B<strong>an</strong>k, 2000) projects <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
by 2100:<br />
• Sea level may rise 0.5 m (“best-guess”<br />
scenario) to 1 m (“worst-guess” scenario).<br />
• Air temperature could <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
between 1.6°C <strong>an</strong>d 3.4°C.<br />
• Ra<strong>in</strong>fall could <strong>in</strong>crease or decrease<br />
(most models predict <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease) by<br />
20 per cent, lead<strong>in</strong>g to more <strong>in</strong>tense<br />
floods or droughts.<br />
• Cyclones may become more <strong>in</strong>tense,<br />
with w<strong>in</strong>d speeds <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g by as<br />
much as 20 per cent; <strong>in</strong>tensity could<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease by 5 to 10 per cent by 2050<br />
(Walsh, 2004 cited <strong>in</strong> Mimura et al.,<br />
2007).<br />
58<br />
Implications <strong>an</strong>d possible future<br />
impacts<br />
Ch<strong>an</strong>ges <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall will also affect agricultural<br />
production. Loss <strong>of</strong> coastal l<strong>an</strong>d would<br />
reduce <strong>the</strong> available space for cultivation <strong>in</strong><br />
some countries. In low-ly<strong>in</strong>g ones, saltwater<br />
<strong>in</strong>trusion would also affect production<br />
<strong>of</strong> copra, breadfruit <strong>an</strong>d p<strong>an</strong>ad<strong>an</strong>us. A<br />
decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> cultivation <strong>of</strong> some traditional<br />
crops, such as yams <strong>an</strong>d taro, would also<br />
affect <strong>the</strong> subsistence economy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Pacific isl<strong>an</strong>ds (World B<strong>an</strong>k, 2000).<br />
The tuna fisheries <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> western <strong>an</strong>d central<br />
Pacific could collapse.<br />
Diarrhoeal <strong>an</strong>d vector borne diseases are<br />
expected to <strong>in</strong>crease with warmer temperatures<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific. As <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>, <strong>the</strong><br />
frequency, severity <strong>an</strong>d distribution <strong>of</strong><br />
dengue fever could <strong>in</strong>crease, as warmer<br />
temperatures reduce <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>cubation period<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> dengue virus <strong>an</strong>d speed up <strong>the</strong> larval<br />
stage <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mosquitoes.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> could also <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>cidence <strong>of</strong> ciguatera poison<strong>in</strong>g. Habitat<br />
disturb<strong>an</strong>ce, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g from extreme<br />
wea<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>an</strong>d warmer waters cause <strong>the</strong><br />
algal blooms that produce <strong>the</strong> ciguatox<strong>in</strong>s,<br />
which are <strong>in</strong>gested by fish. In Kiribati, which<br />
has one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> highest rates <strong>of</strong> ciguatera<br />
poison<strong>in</strong>g, for example, by 2050 <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>cidence<br />
<strong>of</strong> poison<strong>in</strong>g is expected to go up<br />
from 35 to 70 people to 160 to 430 per thous<strong>an</strong>d<br />
(World B<strong>an</strong>k, 2000).<br />
Variations <strong>in</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall will affect water supplies<br />
<strong>in</strong> some Pacific isl<strong>an</strong>ds. Ground water<br />
supplies <strong>in</strong> low-ly<strong>in</strong>g isl<strong>an</strong>ds could be<br />
affected by salt-water <strong>in</strong>trusion.<br />
Coral reefs are also likely to be affected by<br />
bleach<strong>in</strong>g events, which could lead to<br />
death <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> corals <strong>an</strong>d a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> fisheries<br />
<strong>an</strong>d a long-term reduction <strong>in</strong> coastal<br />
protection. M<strong>an</strong>groves are likely to be<br />
affected by sea level rise <strong>an</strong>d flood<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>in</strong>undation will affect <strong>the</strong> costal zone <strong>in</strong><br />
some isl<strong>an</strong>ds.
Chapter summary<br />
The <strong>in</strong>formation that is available about <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> on <strong>UKOTs</strong> is<br />
variable. To date, <strong>the</strong>re has been little climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>-specific monitor<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> most territories.<br />
Mak<strong>in</strong>g projections about future impacts is complicated by <strong>the</strong> fact that most<br />
global climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> models are not at a high enough resolution to provide <strong>in</strong>formation<br />
about <strong>the</strong> small <strong>UKOTs</strong>. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not <strong>the</strong> only process that is affect<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> natural <strong>an</strong>d physical environment on <strong>UKOTs</strong>. O<strong>the</strong>r natural <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>-made<br />
processes <strong>an</strong>d phenomena <strong>in</strong>fluence, <strong>an</strong>d are <strong>in</strong>fluenced by, climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
impacts. Notwithst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty that exists, adopt<strong>in</strong>g a ‘wait <strong>an</strong>d see’ attitude<br />
is not someth<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> territories c<strong>an</strong> afford to do. Scientific evidence po<strong>in</strong>ts to<br />
th<strong>in</strong>gs gett<strong>in</strong>g worse before <strong>the</strong>y improve, even if green house gas emissions were<br />
halted now.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> causes <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> temperatures, <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> precipitation, <strong>an</strong>d a<br />
rise <strong>in</strong> sea levels. This has <strong>an</strong> impact on national <strong>an</strong>d local economies, livelihoods<br />
<strong>an</strong>d food security as some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economic sectors that several <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> territories<br />
depend on – tourism, agriculture <strong>an</strong>d fisheries – are affected by variations <strong>in</strong> temperature.<br />
Moreover, <strong>the</strong>re are high economic <strong>an</strong>d social costs associated with recovery<br />
from damage caused by extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> also has implications for hum<strong>an</strong> health <strong>an</strong>d water resources. The risk<br />
<strong>of</strong> mosquito <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r vector borne diseases is likely to <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> some areas. Precipitation<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s will likely affect water supplies, particularly <strong>in</strong> drought prone areas,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> ground water <strong>in</strong> some territories is at risk <strong>of</strong> salt-water contam<strong>in</strong>ation.<br />
Coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e resources <strong>an</strong>d biodiversity are also at risk. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
sea level rise contribute to coastal erosion, l<strong>an</strong>dward <strong>in</strong>trusion <strong>of</strong> seawater, flood<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
damage to coral reefs from bleach<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d disease <strong>an</strong>d destruction <strong>of</strong> coastal <strong>an</strong>d<br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e ecosystems, such as m<strong>an</strong>groves <strong>an</strong>d sea grass beds. The rich biodiversity<br />
resources <strong>of</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are threatened by <strong>the</strong> migration <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d r<strong>an</strong>ges for all or<br />
part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir life cycle because <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d climatic conditions that allow <strong>the</strong>m to thrive<br />
outside <strong>the</strong>ir usual r<strong>an</strong>ge. Over time, this could lead to a decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>of</strong> native pl<strong>an</strong>ts or<br />
<strong>an</strong>imals <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong> overall reduction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> variety <strong>of</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>imals found <strong>in</strong> a given<br />
area.<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> have no control over <strong>the</strong> storm surges that affect <strong>the</strong>ir shores, nor c<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong>y<br />
regulate <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g oce<strong>an</strong> temperatures that affect <strong>the</strong>ir coral reefs or fish <strong>an</strong>d<br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>imals <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir waters, but what <strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> do is pl<strong>an</strong> for <strong>the</strong>se threats <strong>an</strong>d put<br />
<strong>in</strong> place systems <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>frastructure to reduce risk <strong>an</strong>d build resilience.<br />
59
Why climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> matters<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
4<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is not a future possibility. It<br />
is part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> current reality for <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> entire global community. <strong>UKOTs</strong> are<br />
negligible producers <strong>of</strong> greenhouse<br />
gases, but are extremely vulnerable to <strong>the</strong><br />
effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>in</strong>creased concentration <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m have<br />
economies that are very dependent on climate-sensitive<br />
natural resources. It is<br />
because <strong>of</strong> this vulnerability that <strong>the</strong> territories<br />
c<strong>an</strong>not afford to ignore climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> or put <strong>of</strong>f tak<strong>in</strong>g decisive action to<br />
reduce its impacts <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
resilience.<br />
“<br />
Even if all hum<strong>an</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
greenhouse gas emissions<br />
were to stop today, <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r countries would<br />
cont<strong>in</strong>ue to feel <strong>the</strong> impacts<br />
<strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> for<br />
decades to come.<br />
Even if all hum<strong>an</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced greenhouse gas<br />
emissions were to stop today, <strong>UKOTs</strong> <strong>an</strong>d<br />
o<strong>the</strong>r countries would cont<strong>in</strong>ue to feel <strong>the</strong><br />
impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> for decades to<br />
come. The time that it takes for greenhouse<br />
gases to breakdown <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere<br />
varies greatly. The atmospheric<br />
lifetime for meth<strong>an</strong>e is 12 years, some chlor<strong>of</strong>luorocarbons<br />
(CFCs) c<strong>an</strong> persist for<br />
more th<strong>an</strong> 500 years. However, that is not<br />
60<br />
Unpack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>:<br />
present <strong>an</strong>d<br />
future impacts<br />
What c<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> do<br />
about climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>?<br />
The way<br />
forward<br />
What c<strong>an</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas<br />
Territories do about climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>?<br />
”<br />
<strong>the</strong> full story. All greenhouse gases cont<strong>in</strong>ue<br />
contribut<strong>in</strong>g to global warm<strong>in</strong>g for<br />
years after <strong>the</strong>y have broken down <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere. This is why it is so import<strong>an</strong>t<br />
for <strong>the</strong> global community to reduce greenhouse<br />
gas emissions.<br />
Adaptation <strong>an</strong>d mitigation<br />
In addition to produc<strong>in</strong>g less greenhouse<br />
gas emissions <strong>an</strong>d remov<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m from<br />
<strong>the</strong> atmosphere, effectively address<strong>in</strong>g climate-<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> requires a mix <strong>of</strong><br />
approaches <strong>an</strong>d strategies to prepare for<br />
<strong>an</strong>d respond to its various impacts on both<br />
society <strong>an</strong>d nature.<br />
Adaptation is about be<strong>in</strong>g ready for climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d respond<strong>in</strong>g to it by m<strong>in</strong>imis<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> risks it presents to people’s<br />
lives <strong>an</strong>d livelihoods. It <strong>in</strong>cludes build<strong>in</strong>g<br />
capacity <strong>an</strong>d putt<strong>in</strong>g measures <strong>in</strong> place to<br />
cope with <strong>an</strong>d recover from impacts, as<br />
well as to live with climate-<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d take adv<strong>an</strong>tage <strong>of</strong> <strong>an</strong>y benefits<br />
<strong>the</strong>y might <strong>of</strong>fer. Adaptation c<strong>an</strong> be<br />
done at different levels – national, community<br />
or even <strong>in</strong>dividual. The benefits <strong>of</strong><br />
adaptation are immediate (short- to<br />
medium-term) <strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong>ten localised.<br />
Mitigation is a me<strong>an</strong>s <strong>of</strong> stemm<strong>in</strong>g climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> impacts. However, just as <strong>the</strong><br />
effects <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> felt today are <strong>the</strong><br />
result <strong>of</strong> actions <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> past, <strong>the</strong> benefits <strong>of</strong><br />
mitigation will not be felt immediately. The<br />
benefits are global <strong>an</strong>d will be realised <strong>in</strong>
oth adapt <strong>an</strong>d mitigate.<br />
“<br />
”<br />
Good climate policy aims to<br />
<strong>the</strong> future, even though <strong>the</strong> costs are<br />
immediate <strong>an</strong>d local. Robust, early mitigation<br />
will reduce <strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> adaptation over<br />
<strong>the</strong> long term (Stern, 2007). Mitigation<br />
refers to us<strong>in</strong>g policies <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong>terventions<br />
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions<br />
<strong>an</strong>d improve <strong>the</strong> function<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> carbon <strong>an</strong>d<br />
greenhouse gas s<strong>in</strong>ks. While adaptation<br />
deals with ‘wea<strong>the</strong>r<strong>in</strong>g’ current <strong>an</strong>d future<br />
impacts <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> best possible way, <strong>the</strong> idea<br />
beh<strong>in</strong>d mitigation is to go from present<br />
levels <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> impacts to<br />
reduced levels <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future. The <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
mech<strong>an</strong>ism for do<strong>in</strong>g this is <strong>the</strong><br />
United Nations Framework Convention on<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (UNFCCC). This treaty<br />
<strong>an</strong>d its <strong>in</strong>struments aim to reduce greenhouse<br />
gas emissions, us<strong>in</strong>g 1990 as a<br />
basel<strong>in</strong>e year, <strong>in</strong> order to combat climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> (see Box 10).<br />
“Both…<strong>an</strong>d”, not “ei<strong>the</strong>r…or”<br />
Good climate policy aims to both adapt<br />
<strong>an</strong>d mitigate. Adaptation is crucial<br />
because even <strong>the</strong> most rigorous mitigation<br />
measures taken today will not stave <strong>of</strong>f <strong>the</strong><br />
negative effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> warm<strong>in</strong>g already <strong>in</strong><br />
process. Unmitigated climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> at<br />
<strong>the</strong> current rate will challenge <strong>the</strong> capacity<br />
<strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d nature to adapt.<br />
Given <strong>the</strong> small contribution that <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
make to greenhouse gas emissions <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong> great extent to which <strong>the</strong>y are affected<br />
by global warm<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>the</strong> thrust towards<br />
adaptation will be greater <strong>in</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> th<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> adoption <strong>of</strong> mitigative strategies. Even<br />
so, <strong>the</strong>re is scope for <strong>the</strong>m to promote <strong>an</strong>d<br />
adopt mitigation options that contribute to<br />
<strong>the</strong> global effort, while adv<strong>an</strong>c<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
national development agendas.<br />
Box 10. The <strong>in</strong>ternational response to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
The United Nations Framework Convention on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (UNFCCC)<br />
(UNFCCC) was adopted <strong>in</strong> 1992 to provide a context for tak<strong>in</strong>g measures to stabilise<br />
<strong>the</strong> concentrations <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere at a level that would<br />
m<strong>in</strong>imise <strong>the</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> contribution to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Its first mech<strong>an</strong>ism was to set a<br />
voluntary target for developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990<br />
levels by 2000. The UNFCC is a non-b<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>ternational treaty, but <strong>in</strong>cludes<br />
provisions for obligatory procedures or protocols that commit signatories to action.<br />
The first such agreement, <strong>the</strong> Kyoto Protocol, was adopted <strong>in</strong> 1997. It is l<strong>in</strong>ked to <strong>the</strong><br />
convention but st<strong>an</strong>ds on its own as a legally b<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g commitment to reduce<br />
greenhouse gases by 2012 as a percentage <strong>of</strong> 1990 levels. Developed country<br />
signatories have prescribed targets, while develop<strong>in</strong>g countries are encouraged to<br />
<strong>in</strong>troduce emission abatement measures.<br />
Negotiations have begun on <strong>the</strong> agreement that will succeed <strong>the</strong> Kyoto Protocol. A<br />
pl<strong>an</strong> <strong>of</strong> action for reach<strong>in</strong>g a new agreement once <strong>the</strong> Kyoto Protocol expires,<br />
popularly known as <strong>the</strong> Bali Roadmap, has been developed. It sets out a process for<br />
negotiations that must be completed by 2009 <strong>an</strong>d which will result <strong>in</strong> a new set <strong>of</strong><br />
emissions targets. It also provides a framework for talks about adaptation, facilitat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> tr<strong>an</strong>sfer <strong>of</strong> cle<strong>an</strong> technologies to develop<strong>in</strong>g countries <strong>an</strong>d reduc<strong>in</strong>g emissions<br />
from deforestation.<br />
Source: United Nations Framework Convention on <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge (www.unfccc.<strong>in</strong>t)<br />
61
4.1 Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g<br />
adaptation<br />
The concept <strong>of</strong> adapt<strong>in</strong>g to climate variations<br />
is noth<strong>in</strong>g new. People have always<br />
found ways <strong>of</strong> respond<strong>in</strong>g to climate variations<br />
us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir resources <strong>an</strong>d traditional<br />
knowledge ga<strong>in</strong>ed from experiences. However,<br />
<strong>the</strong> current pace <strong>of</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> suggests<br />
it is not enough for people to rely on experience<br />
to navigate <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
Adaptation is <strong>the</strong> only way to deal with <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>escapable impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
(Stern, 2007). If <strong>UKOTs</strong> hope to susta<strong>in</strong><br />
those economic activities <strong>an</strong>d livelihood<br />
strategies that are climate-dependent (for<br />
example, tourism) or heavily climate<strong>in</strong>fluenced<br />
(for example, fisheries <strong>an</strong>d agriculture),<br />
<strong>the</strong>y have to make adaptation a<br />
major part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir national development<br />
strategies. The natural disasters that affect<br />
m<strong>an</strong>y <strong>UKOTs</strong> as part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir ‘normal’ climate<br />
conditions are becom<strong>in</strong>g more<br />
<strong>in</strong>tense <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> territories have to look at<br />
how <strong>the</strong>se have been, <strong>an</strong>d will cont<strong>in</strong>ue to<br />
be, <strong>in</strong>fluenced by climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. All<br />
countries already have some measures <strong>in</strong><br />
place to deal with natural hazards; adaptation<br />
to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> simply needs to<br />
scale up what already exists <strong>an</strong>d strategically<br />
identify <strong>the</strong> gaps <strong>an</strong>d weak po<strong>in</strong>ts<br />
that need to be addressed.<br />
An opportunity for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
Adapt<strong>in</strong>g to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is <strong>an</strong> opportunity<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong> to improve natural resource<br />
m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>an</strong>d physical pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g<br />
processes. Even if climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> were<br />
taken out <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> equation, adaptive measures<br />
would make <strong>the</strong> territories better able<br />
to deal with <strong>the</strong> natural hazards that are<br />
part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir normal climate variability, as<br />
well as <strong>the</strong> grow<strong>in</strong>g hum<strong>an</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced<br />
stresses on <strong>the</strong> environment.<br />
There are m<strong>an</strong>y th<strong>in</strong>gs that <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> do<br />
to adapt to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Adaptive<br />
62<br />
Adapt<strong>in</strong>g to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
is <strong>an</strong> opportunity for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
to improve natural resource<br />
m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>an</strong>d physical<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g processes.<br />
“<br />
”<br />
responses c<strong>an</strong> be technological (for<br />
example, improv<strong>in</strong>g coastal defences),<br />
m<strong>an</strong>agerial (for example, <strong>in</strong>troduc<strong>in</strong>g crop<br />
rotation) or policy-based (for example,<br />
streng<strong>the</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g regulations). They<br />
c<strong>an</strong> also be behavioural. At <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
level, this could be someth<strong>in</strong>g as simple as<br />
prepar<strong>in</strong>g one’s home adequately for a<br />
hurric<strong>an</strong>e or us<strong>in</strong>g less water <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
garden.<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>g adaptation <strong>in</strong>to national<br />
development agendas<br />
More <strong>an</strong>d more countries are beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
develop adaptation strategies or pl<strong>an</strong>s <strong>of</strong><br />
action. The UNFCCC makes provisions for<br />
its least developed country signatories to<br />
prepare National Adaptation Pl<strong>an</strong>s <strong>of</strong><br />
Action (NAPAs) that set out <strong>the</strong> priority<br />
areas <strong>in</strong> which <strong>the</strong>y need urgent <strong>an</strong>d<br />
immediate adaptive measures. Even outside<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> NAPA framework, countries are<br />
develop<strong>in</strong>g adaptation strategies <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
face <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> grow<strong>in</strong>g realisation that action<br />
to address climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is needed now.<br />
The Caribbe<strong>an</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>, for example, are<br />
work<strong>in</strong>g with <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> Community<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge Centre (CCCCC) to<br />
develop <strong>an</strong>d implement adaptation strategies<br />
under <strong>the</strong> Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g Adaptation<br />
to <strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas<br />
Territories project, funded by <strong>the</strong> UK<br />
Department for International Development.<br />
Some multilateral agencies, like <strong>the</strong> Asi<strong>an</strong><br />
Development B<strong>an</strong>k, have begun to <strong>in</strong>tegrate<br />
climate concerns <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong>ir gr<strong>an</strong>t <strong>an</strong>d<br />
lo<strong>an</strong> procedures.<br />
Simply hav<strong>in</strong>g a national pl<strong>an</strong> or strategy is<br />
not enough; it is how countries use <strong>the</strong>m
that is import<strong>an</strong>t. There is a strong case for<br />
br<strong>in</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g adaptation <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>stream <strong>of</strong><br />
national policymak<strong>in</strong>g, pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d development.<br />
The effects <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> cut<br />
across all economic <strong>an</strong>d social sectors; at<br />
<strong>the</strong> same time, development decisions<br />
<strong>an</strong>d activities <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>se areas c<strong>an</strong> affect a<br />
country’s vulnerability to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>d its impacts.<br />
Overarch<strong>in</strong>g national development strategies,<br />
such as national susta<strong>in</strong>able development<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>s, are a strategic entry po<strong>in</strong>t for<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g adaptation. Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g<br />
adaptation me<strong>an</strong>s <strong>in</strong>tegrat<strong>in</strong>g climate concerns<br />
<strong>in</strong>to water m<strong>an</strong>agement, l<strong>an</strong>d-use<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g, hum<strong>an</strong> settlements, natural<br />
resource m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>an</strong>d conservation,<br />
as well as policymak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d practice <strong>in</strong> all<br />
economic (agriculture, fisheries, tourism,<br />
forestry, f<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ce etc.) <strong>an</strong>d social (health,<br />
education etc.) sectors. It also me<strong>an</strong>s<br />
ensur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>re are budgetary allocations<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> necessary fund<strong>in</strong>g to cover <strong>the</strong><br />
cost <strong>of</strong> do<strong>in</strong>g this.<br />
The reality <strong>of</strong> global warm<strong>in</strong>g me<strong>an</strong>s that<br />
development c<strong>an</strong>not be susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
unless it factors <strong>in</strong> climate impacts <strong>an</strong>d<br />
natural hazards. Adaptation pl<strong>an</strong>s or<br />
strategies similarly need to take <strong>in</strong>to<br />
account all aspects <strong>of</strong> a country’s context<br />
Box 11. Increas<strong>in</strong>g Resilience to Hurric<strong>an</strong>e Risk <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
The jolt from two Category 5 hurric<strong>an</strong>es* <strong>an</strong>d a Category 4 one over <strong>the</strong> thirteen-year<br />
period between 1988 <strong>an</strong>d 2002 prompted <strong>the</strong> government <strong>an</strong>d citizens <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caym<strong>an</strong><br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>ds to streng<strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> territory’s hurric<strong>an</strong>e preparedness. There have been import<strong>an</strong>t<br />
regulatory <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s to <strong>the</strong> build<strong>in</strong>g code <strong>an</strong>d development pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g. There have also<br />
been signific<strong>an</strong>t <strong>in</strong>stitutional <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s. The Natural Resources Unit was upgraded to a<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Environment <strong>in</strong> 1988 <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>tegrated <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> development pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g<br />
process <strong>an</strong>d a National Hurric<strong>an</strong>e Committee created. The latter has become <strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>fluential local advocate that engages <strong>the</strong> public, NGOs, <strong>the</strong> private sector, <strong>an</strong>d<br />
religious groups <strong>in</strong> its efforts to ma<strong>in</strong>stream <strong>the</strong> concept <strong>of</strong> hurric<strong>an</strong>e preparedness.<br />
Sector response pl<strong>an</strong>s have also been developed: <strong>the</strong> health sector, for example, now<br />
has clear guidel<strong>in</strong>es <strong>of</strong> what to do <strong>in</strong> a hurric<strong>an</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d who will do it.<br />
This level <strong>of</strong> knowledge <strong>an</strong>d awareness has tr<strong>an</strong>slated <strong>in</strong>to support among citizens <strong>an</strong>d<br />
civil serv<strong>an</strong>ts for improv<strong>in</strong>g resilience to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> risk. One study found support<br />
for <strong>in</strong>itiatives such as:<br />
• putt<strong>in</strong>g measures <strong>in</strong> place to deal with sea level rise;<br />
• modify<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> roads <strong>an</strong>d build<strong>in</strong>gs to <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong>ir ability to<br />
withst<strong>an</strong>d everyday wea<strong>the</strong>r;<br />
• creat<strong>in</strong>g a Disaster Fund for relief <strong>in</strong> extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r situations;<br />
• <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> m<strong>in</strong>imum elevation for development on reclaimed l<strong>an</strong>d to prevent<br />
future flood<strong>in</strong>g; <strong>an</strong>d<br />
• develop<strong>in</strong>g a national energy policy.<br />
Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se have already been championed <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> government’s ma<strong>in</strong> policy pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g<br />
document, Vision 2008.<br />
Source: Tompk<strong>in</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d Hurlston, 2005.<br />
*On <strong>the</strong> Saffir-Simpson Scale <strong>of</strong> 1 to 5 for measur<strong>in</strong>g hurric<strong>an</strong>e <strong>in</strong>tensity, a category 1 hurric<strong>an</strong>e has<br />
w<strong>in</strong>ds <strong>of</strong> 119 – 153 km/hr <strong>an</strong>d a storm surge <strong>of</strong> 1.2 – 1.5 m above normal. A category 5 hurric<strong>an</strong>e has<br />
w<strong>in</strong>ds above 245 km/hr <strong>an</strong>d a storm surge greater th<strong>an</strong> 5.4 m above normal<br />
63
<strong>an</strong>d capacity ra<strong>the</strong>r th<strong>an</strong> rely on a projectby-project<br />
approach to tackl<strong>in</strong>g problems.<br />
Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong><br />
national policy <strong>an</strong>d pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g process does<br />
not require a dramatic departure from all<br />
that has gone before <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>re are even<br />
m<strong>an</strong>y low- or no-cost actions that c<strong>an</strong> be<br />
taken. Ma<strong>in</strong>stream<strong>in</strong>g adaptation c<strong>an</strong> be<br />
done <strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>cremental way, build<strong>in</strong>g on<br />
<strong>an</strong>d adjust<strong>in</strong>g exist<strong>in</strong>g policies, programmes,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d structures.<br />
L<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g adaptation to m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g<br />
disaster risk<br />
M<strong>an</strong>y <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are prone to natural<br />
disasters as part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir normal climate<br />
conditions. Natural disasters c<strong>an</strong> have a<br />
negative effect on a national economy <strong>an</strong>d<br />
<strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> devastate households <strong>an</strong>d communities.<br />
Reduc<strong>in</strong>g vulnerability to hazards<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> short term goes a long way<br />
towards reduc<strong>in</strong>g long-term risk to climate<br />
64<br />
Vulnerability<br />
Risk<br />
Hazard<br />
Vulnerability<br />
Risk<br />
Hazard<br />
j<strong>Climate</strong><br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
with no adaptation<br />
(Hazard <strong>in</strong>creases, vulnerability<br />
un<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>d, risk <strong>in</strong>creases)<br />
j<strong>Climate</strong><br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
with adaptation<br />
(Hazard <strong>in</strong>creases, vulnerability<br />
decreases, risk decreases)<br />
Figure 12. Hazard, vulnerability <strong>an</strong>d risk<br />
Vulnerability<br />
Risk<br />
Hazard<br />
Vulnerability<br />
Risk<br />
Hazard<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> (CDERA, 2003). Over time, <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>troduction <strong>of</strong> policies <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r national<br />
responses for m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g natural disaster<br />
risk c<strong>an</strong> provide a way to <strong>in</strong>troduce measures<br />
for prepar<strong>in</strong>g for specific climate<br />
impacts, as has been <strong>the</strong> case <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Caym<strong>an</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds (Box 11).<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g vulnerability as a key to<br />
build<strong>in</strong>g resilience<br />
The <strong>in</strong>formation from climate modell<strong>in</strong>g<br />
scenarios is import<strong>an</strong>t, but should not be<br />
<strong>the</strong> only th<strong>in</strong>g that countries use to pl<strong>an</strong> for<br />
future vulnerability. Exist<strong>in</strong>g social <strong>an</strong>d<br />
economic vulnerabilities <strong>an</strong>d community<br />
<strong>an</strong>d household cop<strong>in</strong>g mech<strong>an</strong>isms <strong>in</strong>fluence<br />
a country’s ability to withst<strong>an</strong>d climate<br />
impacts <strong>an</strong>d natural hazards.<br />
Effective adaptation needs to make vulnerable<br />
people, communities <strong>an</strong>d locations<br />
better able to withst<strong>an</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d recover from<br />
major shocks. This me<strong>an</strong>s deal<strong>in</strong>g with <strong>the</strong><br />
underly<strong>in</strong>g causes <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir vulnerability,<br />
such as low <strong>in</strong>comes, poor<br />
hous<strong>in</strong>g stock, lack <strong>of</strong> education,<br />
poor health <strong>an</strong>d nutrition, limited or<br />
no assets, <strong>in</strong>adequate <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />
<strong>an</strong>d public services, poor govern<strong>an</strong>ce<br />
structures <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>stitutional<br />
arr<strong>an</strong>gements for m<strong>an</strong>agement.<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se issues is what<br />
susta<strong>in</strong>able development is all<br />
about (UNEP F<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ce Initiative,<br />
2006).<br />
Strategic climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation<br />
measures that reduce vulnerability<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> right way c<strong>an</strong><br />
dramatically reduce risk (Figure 12).<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong>creases hazard<br />
or <strong>the</strong> potential for harm. With no<br />
measures to reduce vulnerability<br />
(adaptation), <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> risk, or<br />
likelihood <strong>of</strong> harm, is high, but<br />
where appropriate measures are<br />
taken to reduce vulnerability, <strong>the</strong><br />
level <strong>of</strong> risk decreases dramatically.
Streng<strong>the</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g adaptation through<br />
biodiversity conservation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
natural resource m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
Natural resources <strong>an</strong>d biodiversity c<strong>an</strong> be<br />
m<strong>an</strong>aged <strong>an</strong>d conserved <strong>in</strong> ways that help<br />
reduce <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. The<br />
resilience <strong>of</strong> ecosystems c<strong>an</strong> be enh<strong>an</strong>ced<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>of</strong> damage to hum<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d natural<br />
ecosystems reduced through <strong>the</strong><br />
adoption <strong>of</strong> biodiversity-based adaptive<br />
<strong>an</strong>d mitigative strategies (Secretariat <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Convention on Biodiversity, 2007).<br />
Resources put <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>an</strong>d<br />
conservation <strong>of</strong> ecosystems such as coral<br />
reefs, forests, m<strong>an</strong>groves <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r wetl<strong>an</strong>ds<br />
are well used. Not only do <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>terventions<br />
help ensure that <strong>the</strong>se<br />
ecosystems c<strong>an</strong> carry out <strong>the</strong>ir ecological<br />
functions <strong>an</strong>d services, <strong>the</strong>y also help<br />
<strong>the</strong>m to reduce <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> by bolster<strong>in</strong>g coastal <strong>an</strong>d shorel<strong>in</strong>e<br />
defences <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong>groves<br />
<strong>an</strong>d coral reefs or <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g available<br />
carbon s<strong>in</strong>ks, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> forests. M<strong>an</strong>groves,<br />
for example, c<strong>an</strong> absorb 70 to 90<br />
per cent <strong>of</strong> a normal wave (IUCN, 2005).<br />
A compell<strong>in</strong>g illustration <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> protective<br />
role <strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong>groves comes from Sri L<strong>an</strong>ka’s<br />
experience <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 2004 Asi<strong>an</strong> tsunami. A<br />
survey by IUCN found that coastal areas<br />
with dense m<strong>an</strong>grove forests experienced<br />
less damage <strong>an</strong>d fewer losses <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
tsunami th<strong>an</strong> those with m<strong>an</strong>groves that<br />
had been degraded or lost through conversion<br />
to o<strong>the</strong>r l<strong>an</strong>d use. Perhaps <strong>the</strong><br />
most sober<strong>in</strong>g illustration comes from two<br />
villages <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> lagoon <strong>of</strong> sou<strong>the</strong>rn Sri<br />
L<strong>an</strong>ka - Kapuhenwala <strong>an</strong>d W<strong>an</strong>duruppa.<br />
Only two people died <strong>in</strong> Kapuhenwala,<br />
which has two 200 hectares <strong>of</strong> dense m<strong>an</strong>grove<br />
<strong>an</strong>d scrub forest around it. In contrast,<br />
<strong>the</strong>re were 5,000 to 6,000 tsunami<br />
related fatalities <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> W<strong>an</strong>duruppa district<br />
where <strong>the</strong> m<strong>an</strong>grove forests are degraded<br />
(IUCN, 2005).<br />
Conserv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d promot<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> pl<strong>an</strong>t<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong><br />
endemic <strong>an</strong>d native species <strong>of</strong> trees <strong>an</strong>d<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>ts also build <strong>the</strong> resilience <strong>of</strong> ecosystems<br />
to <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Endemic <strong>an</strong>d native species are better<br />
suited to local climatic conditions th<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>troduced or <strong>in</strong>vasive species, <strong>an</strong>d are<br />
better able to withst<strong>an</strong>d extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
events that are exaggerations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> norm<br />
(Box 12).<br />
Box 12. Greater Resist<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>of</strong> Bermuda Endemic <strong>an</strong>d Native Pl<strong>an</strong>t Species<br />
to Increased Hurric<strong>an</strong>e Frequency th<strong>an</strong> Introduced Invasive Species<br />
The oce<strong>an</strong>ic isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong> Bermuda has experienced a greatly <strong>in</strong>creased frequency <strong>of</strong> major<br />
impacts by hurric<strong>an</strong>es <strong>in</strong> recent years, with seven storms giv<strong>in</strong>g hurric<strong>an</strong>e-force or greater<br />
w<strong>in</strong>ds dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> last 20 years, compared to only one for <strong>the</strong> previous 25 years.<br />
Woodl<strong>an</strong>d areas <strong>an</strong>d trees pl<strong>an</strong>ted for l<strong>an</strong>dscap<strong>in</strong>g use on Bermuda are overwhelm<strong>in</strong>gly<br />
dom<strong>in</strong>ated by <strong>in</strong>troduced tree <strong>an</strong>d pl<strong>an</strong>t species, a number <strong>of</strong> which have become<br />
aggressively <strong>in</strong>vasive <strong>an</strong>d now comprise <strong>an</strong> estimated 95 per cent to 98 per cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
isl<strong>an</strong>d’s vegetative biomass. The most dom<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>t <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se <strong>in</strong>vasive <strong>in</strong>troduced species are<br />
<strong>the</strong> Australi<strong>an</strong> casuar<strong>in</strong>a (Casuar<strong>in</strong>a equisetifolia), Brazil pepper (Sch<strong>in</strong>us tereb<strong>in</strong>thifolia),<br />
Indi<strong>an</strong> laurel (Ficus retusa) <strong>an</strong>d allspice (Pimenta dioica).<br />
Dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creased hurric<strong>an</strong>e activity <strong>of</strong> recent years, <strong>the</strong>se <strong>in</strong>troduced <strong>in</strong>vasive species<br />
suffered considerable damage, with from 50 per cent to 75 per cent <strong>of</strong> mature trees be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Box 12 cont<strong>in</strong>ued overleaf<br />
65
Box 12 cont’d<br />
uprooted or snapped <strong>of</strong>f, caus<strong>in</strong>g considerable damage to utilities <strong>an</strong>d build<strong>in</strong>gs on <strong>the</strong><br />
isl<strong>an</strong>d. Surviv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>troduced vegetation also suffered complete defoliation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
considerable dieback from w<strong>in</strong>d <strong>an</strong>d salt spray blown over <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>ds dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
hurric<strong>an</strong>es.<br />
By contrast, tree <strong>an</strong>d pl<strong>an</strong>t species endemic or native to Bermuda are ma<strong>in</strong>ly found as<br />
isolated specimens or small st<strong>an</strong>ds on coastal cliffs, rocky areas or <strong>of</strong>fshore isl<strong>an</strong>ds. The<br />
most noteworthy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se pl<strong>an</strong>t species are <strong>the</strong> Bermuda cedar (Juniperus bermudi<strong>an</strong>a),<br />
Bermuda olivewood (Cass<strong>in</strong>e l<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>um), Bermuda palmetto palm (Sabal bermud<strong>an</strong>a)<br />
<strong>an</strong>d yellow-wood (Z<strong>an</strong>thoxylum flavum).<br />
A number <strong>of</strong> Nature Reserve <strong>an</strong>d Park areas have had <strong>in</strong>vasive vegetation removed <strong>an</strong>d<br />
endemic vegetation pl<strong>an</strong>ted as part <strong>of</strong> a native reforestation program. The most<br />
noteworthy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se are <strong>the</strong> Nonsuch Isl<strong>an</strong>d Nature Reserve <strong>an</strong>d Wals<strong>in</strong>gham Trust<br />
reserve, where reforestation efforts have been underway for over forty years. In both<br />
areas, <strong>an</strong> immature closed-c<strong>an</strong>opy forest has developed, with a high diversity <strong>of</strong><br />
understory pl<strong>an</strong>t species. These restored endemic/native woodl<strong>an</strong>d areas have shown<br />
signific<strong>an</strong>t resist<strong>an</strong>ce to both hurric<strong>an</strong>e-force w<strong>in</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d salt damage. On Nonsuch<br />
Isl<strong>an</strong>d, less th<strong>an</strong> 2 per cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mature trees <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> restored native forest were<br />
uprooted or damaged, despite <strong>the</strong> extremely exposed aspect <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d. Salt damage<br />
to foliage was also much less th<strong>an</strong> that with <strong>in</strong>troduced trees on more sheltered areas<br />
on <strong>the</strong> ma<strong>in</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d <strong>of</strong> Bermuda, <strong>an</strong>d new foliage was re-sprout<strong>in</strong>g with<strong>in</strong> two weeks on<br />
native trees.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>creased resist<strong>an</strong>ce stems from adaptations common to most <strong>of</strong> Bermuda’s<br />
endemic <strong>an</strong>d native tree species, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g a shorter, dense growth form, salt-resist<strong>an</strong>t<br />
foliage <strong>an</strong>d robust root systems which c<strong>an</strong> penetrate deep <strong>in</strong>to cracks <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> limestone<br />
rock which underlies Bermuda’s generally th<strong>in</strong> soils. These adaptations have given <strong>the</strong><br />
endemic tree species <strong>an</strong> adv<strong>an</strong>tage over <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>troduced tree species <strong>in</strong> extreme<br />
hurric<strong>an</strong>e conditions, <strong>an</strong>d have led to <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creased propagation <strong>an</strong>d use <strong>of</strong> endemic<br />
species <strong>in</strong> repl<strong>an</strong>t<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d l<strong>an</strong>dscap<strong>in</strong>g uses on Bermuda. Much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> seed <strong>an</strong>d<br />
seedl<strong>in</strong>gs used for this purpose are now obta<strong>in</strong>ed as surplus from <strong>the</strong> regenerat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
native forest on Nonsuch Isl<strong>an</strong>d.<br />
Source: Jeremy Madeiros, Conservation Officer (Terrestrial),<br />
Department <strong>of</strong> Conservation Services, Bermuda<br />
Meet<strong>in</strong>g multiple objectives<br />
through effective adaptation<br />
When <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
adaptation, biodiversity <strong>an</strong>d susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
development, <strong>an</strong>d disaster m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
<strong>in</strong>tersect, <strong>the</strong>re is a ‘w<strong>in</strong>-w<strong>in</strong>-w<strong>in</strong>’ situation<br />
(Figure 13). The triple dividend <strong>of</strong> this<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestment payback tr<strong>an</strong>slates <strong>in</strong>to ‘safer,<br />
sounder models <strong>of</strong> development’ <strong>an</strong>d<br />
improved resilience to natural disasters<br />
<strong>an</strong>d climate impacts. Each dollar spent<br />
goes towards climate impacts, disaster<br />
66<br />
<strong>Climate</strong><br />
adaptation<br />
Disaster<br />
m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
Biodiversity<br />
& Susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
development<br />
Figure 13. The Triple dividend<br />
Source:UNEP F<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ce Initiative, 2006<br />
Triple<br />
Dividend
ecovery <strong>an</strong>d economic growth (UNEP<br />
F<strong>in</strong><strong>an</strong>ce Initiative, 2006).<br />
A stitch <strong>in</strong> time…<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>g adaptive capacity is not without<br />
costs for <strong>UKOTs</strong>, but fail<strong>in</strong>g to do so is a<br />
potentially more costly alternative <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
medium- to long-term.<br />
A grow<strong>in</strong>g body <strong>of</strong> evidence shows that<br />
<strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong>ag<strong>in</strong>g risk to natural hazards<br />
is less expensive th<strong>an</strong> repair<strong>in</strong>g<br />
damage after <strong>the</strong> fact. Early <strong>in</strong>vestments<br />
pay <strong>of</strong>f. The <strong>in</strong>cremental costs <strong>of</strong> ‘climate<br />
pro<strong>of</strong><strong>in</strong>g’ structural <strong>in</strong>vestments at <strong>the</strong><br />
outset is <strong>of</strong>ten much smaller th<strong>an</strong> repair<strong>in</strong>g<br />
damage, as comparative figures from <strong>the</strong><br />
Caribbe<strong>an</strong> show <strong>in</strong> Table 6. Reconstruction<br />
costs c<strong>an</strong> be as much as 40 per cent<br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> orig<strong>in</strong>al <strong>in</strong>vestment, which is generally<br />
much more th<strong>an</strong> it would have cost to<br />
take preventative measures at <strong>the</strong> start<br />
(Bettencourt et al., 2006).<br />
4.2 Mitigation<br />
Although <strong>UKOTs</strong> make a m<strong>in</strong>iscule contribution<br />
to warm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d have little control<br />
over global mitigation, <strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> play <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
part <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> global reduction <strong>of</strong> greenhouse<br />
gas emissions by enh<strong>an</strong>c<strong>in</strong>g energy efficiency,<br />
diversify<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir energy sources<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g reli<strong>an</strong>ce on non fossil fuel<br />
sources <strong>of</strong> energy, <strong>an</strong>d provid<strong>in</strong>g for <strong>the</strong><br />
development <strong>an</strong>d uptake <strong>of</strong> climate<br />
friendly technologies. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
affects us all, <strong>the</strong>refore we all have a<br />
vested <strong>in</strong>terested <strong>in</strong> do<strong>in</strong>g whatever we<br />
c<strong>an</strong> to reduce emissions, however small<br />
<strong>the</strong> contribution <strong>in</strong> global terms. Collectively,<br />
small efforts add up to a make a difference.<br />
Table 4. Compar<strong>in</strong>g prevention <strong>an</strong>d reconstruction <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> (<strong>in</strong> USD)<br />
Infrastructure Deepwater<br />
Port<br />
(Dom<strong>in</strong>ica)<br />
Orig<strong>in</strong>al project cost<br />
Reconstruction costs<br />
after disaster<br />
Reconstruction as a %<br />
<strong>of</strong> orig<strong>in</strong>al<br />
construction cost<br />
Risk m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>of</strong><br />
natural hazards costs<br />
as a % <strong>of</strong> orig<strong>in</strong>al<br />
construction costs<br />
Risk m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>of</strong><br />
natural hazard costs as<br />
a % <strong>of</strong> reconstruction<br />
costs<br />
5,700,000<br />
2,310,000<br />
40.7%<br />
11.5%<br />
28.0%<br />
Norm<strong>an</strong><br />
M<strong>an</strong>ley Law<br />
School<br />
(Jamaica)<br />
685,000<br />
28,800<br />
4.2%<br />
1.9%<br />
45.0%<br />
Troumasse<br />
Bridge<br />
(St. Lucia)<br />
185,000<br />
32,000<br />
17.4%<br />
10.8%<br />
62.4%<br />
Gr<strong>an</strong>d Palazzo<br />
Hotel<br />
(St. Thomas)<br />
28,000,000<br />
5,308,000<br />
19.0%<br />
0.1%<br />
0.5%<br />
Source:: USAID-OAS, 1998 cited <strong>in</strong> Bettencourt et al. 2006<br />
67
Some territories have taken steps towards<br />
improv<strong>in</strong>g fuel efficiency <strong>an</strong>d diversify<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir sources <strong>of</strong> energy. In Bermuda, for<br />
example, <strong>the</strong> power comp<strong>an</strong>y, BELCO, has<br />
taken steps to diversify its energy sources<br />
<strong>in</strong> order to become less dependent on<br />
fossil fuels. A government-operated <strong>in</strong>c<strong>in</strong>erator<br />
is divert<strong>in</strong>g waste from l<strong>an</strong>dfills <strong>an</strong>d<br />
turn<strong>in</strong>g rubbish <strong>in</strong>to energy sufficient to<br />
power 2,500 homes (Government <strong>of</strong><br />
Bermuda, 2007). Three w<strong>in</strong>d turb<strong>in</strong>es on<br />
St. Helena contribute up to 240Kw to <strong>the</strong><br />
total dem<strong>an</strong>d for electricity. Accord<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
<strong>the</strong> Public Works <strong>an</strong>d Services Department,<br />
this accounts for approximately 20<br />
per cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> supply dur<strong>in</strong>g peak load<br />
<strong>an</strong>d 45 per cent <strong>of</strong>f-peak. The sav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
diesel fuel is approximately GBP150,000 a<br />
year. A proposed hydro-electric power<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>t on South Georgia isl<strong>an</strong>d would<br />
reduce carbon emissions <strong>the</strong>re. Pl<strong>an</strong>s are<br />
also <strong>in</strong> progress to erect two additional<br />
w<strong>in</strong>d turb<strong>in</strong>es on Ascension by 2011, which<br />
would br<strong>in</strong>g to n<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> total number <strong>of</strong><br />
w<strong>in</strong>d turb<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong> use <strong>the</strong>re. Actions such as<br />
<strong>the</strong>se not only reduce greenhouse gas<br />
emissions, <strong>the</strong>y have <strong>the</strong> added benefit <strong>of</strong><br />
reduc<strong>in</strong>g fossil fuel dependency,<br />
decreas<strong>in</strong>g dependency on imports <strong>an</strong>d<br />
lower<strong>in</strong>g a country’s oil bill.<br />
Towards a susta<strong>in</strong>able energy<br />
agenda for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
In order for mitigative actions to be truly<br />
me<strong>an</strong><strong>in</strong>gful for <strong>UKOTs</strong>, <strong>the</strong>y have to be<br />
compatible with <strong>the</strong> territories’ susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
development goals, support<strong>in</strong>g, for<br />
example, efforts towards susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
energy through efficiency, conservation,<br />
<strong>an</strong>d diversification.<br />
Areas which <strong>UKOTs</strong> could consider as priority<br />
for mitigation through energy efficiency<br />
<strong>in</strong>clude:<br />
• development <strong>an</strong>d application <strong>of</strong> renewable<br />
energy technologies, especially<br />
solar <strong>an</strong>d w<strong>in</strong>d;<br />
68<br />
• improved efficiency <strong>in</strong> energy-use by all<br />
users (public sector, private sector,<br />
households); <strong>an</strong>d<br />
• streng<strong>the</strong>ned <strong>in</strong>stitutional capacity for<br />
energy m<strong>an</strong>agement (Challenger,<br />
2002).<br />
4.3 Policy responses <strong>an</strong>d<br />
options<br />
Everyone has a role to play <strong>in</strong> address<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d everyone c<strong>an</strong> make a<br />
difference.<br />
Governments have <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t role to<br />
play <strong>in</strong> sett<strong>in</strong>g a national agenda <strong>an</strong>d provid<strong>in</strong>g<br />
a framework for action by <strong>in</strong>dividuals,<br />
communities, <strong>the</strong> public <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
private sector <strong>an</strong>d putt<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>centives, <strong>in</strong>stitutions<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>struments <strong>in</strong> place to support<br />
adaptation <strong>an</strong>d mitigation as well as<br />
ensur<strong>in</strong>g that <strong>the</strong> right <strong>in</strong>formation is available<br />
to all.<br />
4.3.1 Incentives<br />
Encourage <strong>an</strong>d reward early action<br />
It is import<strong>an</strong>t to have <strong>in</strong>centives <strong>in</strong> place<br />
that encourage appropriate early action,<br />
ra<strong>the</strong>r th<strong>an</strong> promote remedial action.<br />
Some countries have set up disaster<br />
recovery funds, for example, <strong>an</strong>d while this<br />
is essential, it is also import<strong>an</strong>t to have<br />
funds <strong>in</strong> place that support preventative<br />
action at all levels.<br />
The right <strong>in</strong>centives c<strong>an</strong> also support physical<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g regulations, encourage <strong>the</strong><br />
uptake <strong>of</strong> technologies as part <strong>of</strong> <strong>an</strong><br />
energy agenda, <strong>an</strong>d encourage bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dividuals to take action to<br />
reduce damage or losses from wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
events.<br />
4.3.2 Institutions<br />
Hav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> right <strong>in</strong>stitutions <strong>in</strong> place to promote<br />
<strong>an</strong>d facilitate adaptation is import<strong>an</strong>t.<br />
The appropriate <strong>in</strong>stitutional arr<strong>an</strong>gements<br />
will vary from territory to territory, but <strong>the</strong>re
are certa<strong>in</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t conditions <strong>an</strong>d characteristics:<br />
a. There should be <strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong>stitution that<br />
drives <strong>the</strong> process with a clear m<strong>an</strong>date<br />
to coord<strong>in</strong>ate, implement <strong>an</strong>d support<br />
appropriate climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation.<br />
b. This <strong>in</strong>stitution should be a part <strong>of</strong> key<br />
decision mak<strong>in</strong>g processes across sectors<br />
<strong>an</strong>d ma<strong>in</strong>streamed <strong>in</strong>to national<br />
economic pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g with a role to play <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> elaboration <strong>of</strong> national development<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>s, budget, sectoral pl<strong>an</strong>s, policies,<br />
regulations, codes <strong>of</strong> practice <strong>an</strong>d programmes<br />
<strong>an</strong>d projects (Bettencourt et<br />
al., 2006). When adaptation is ma<strong>in</strong>streamed<br />
or fully <strong>in</strong>tegrated <strong>in</strong>to<br />
national pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g processes <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>struments,<br />
efforts (<strong>an</strong>d money spent) are<br />
more effective th<strong>an</strong> st<strong>an</strong>d-alone ventures.<br />
c. Effective adaptation needs a mix <strong>of</strong> ‘top<br />
down’ <strong>an</strong>d ‘bottom up’ contributions,<br />
which makes it import<strong>an</strong>t to have <strong>in</strong><br />
place mech<strong>an</strong>isms that make participation<br />
by citizens <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>ir org<strong>an</strong>isations,<br />
<strong>the</strong> private sector, <strong>an</strong>d actors across <strong>the</strong><br />
public sector possible. These could<br />
<strong>in</strong>clude provisions for participatory<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g that br<strong>in</strong>g all stakeholders<br />
(government, civil society <strong>an</strong>d private<br />
sector) to agree on priorities <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
roles <strong>in</strong> implementation. They could<br />
also <strong>in</strong>clude <strong>in</strong>ter-sectoral coord<strong>in</strong>ation<br />
mech<strong>an</strong>isms, such as Inter-m<strong>in</strong>isterial<br />
committees, as well as participatory<br />
budgetary processes (Bettencourt et<br />
al., 2006).<br />
4.3.3 Instruments<br />
There are several <strong>in</strong>struments that c<strong>an</strong> be<br />
used to support climate adaptation <strong>an</strong>d<br />
mitigation. As <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>stitutional<br />
arr<strong>an</strong>gements, each country needs to<br />
apply <strong>the</strong> mix <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>struments best suited to<br />
its capacity, vulnerabilities <strong>an</strong>d needs. The<br />
list below is by no me<strong>an</strong>s exhaustive.<br />
Policy<br />
� Integration <strong>of</strong> disaster m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
<strong>an</strong>d climate adaptation <strong>in</strong>to national<br />
decision mak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d policy processes<br />
(see Table 5).<br />
� Adjusted build<strong>in</strong>g codes to withst<strong>an</strong>d<br />
stronger hurric<strong>an</strong>es <strong>an</strong>d cyclones.<br />
� L<strong>an</strong>d use policy for development <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
coastal zone.<br />
� L<strong>an</strong>d development control pl<strong>an</strong>s.<br />
� Energy policy to diversify energy<br />
sources <strong>an</strong>d decrease reli<strong>an</strong>ce on<br />
fossil fuels.<br />
� Hazard disclosure laws for real estate<br />
purchases.<br />
� Economic diversification.<br />
� Agricultural diversification.<br />
� Coastal zone settlement policy/relocation<br />
<strong>of</strong> vulnerable communities.<br />
Technology<br />
� Introduction <strong>of</strong> early warn<strong>in</strong>g systems<br />
for hurric<strong>an</strong>es, floods <strong>an</strong>d droughts<br />
<strong>an</strong>d improved wea<strong>the</strong>r forecast<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
� Introduction <strong>of</strong> water-sav<strong>in</strong>g devices.<br />
� Exp<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> network <strong>of</strong> hydro-meteorological,<br />
oce<strong>an</strong>ographic <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e<br />
<strong>in</strong>struments to monitor climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
� Improvements to m<strong>an</strong>-made coastal<br />
<strong>an</strong>d sea defences (sea walls, gro<strong>in</strong>s,<br />
etc).<br />
Economic <strong>an</strong>d fiscal <strong>in</strong>centives<br />
� Tax breaks for adoption <strong>of</strong> cle<strong>an</strong> technologies.<br />
� Reduced import duties on alternative<br />
energy technology.<br />
Information for decision mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />
� Regional climate modell<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
� Flood pla<strong>in</strong>, storm surge, erosion or<br />
hazard mapp<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
� Social vulnerability mapp<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
69
70<br />
Table 5. Policies that affect <strong>the</strong> ability to cope with climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
Policy area Policies that take climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong>to account<br />
Hous<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Tourism<br />
Energy<br />
Tr<strong>an</strong>sport<br />
Food Security<br />
Water Supply<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>g on higher ground<br />
Us<strong>in</strong>g natural ventilation to cool<br />
build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
Encourag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> smallscale<br />
renewable energy, e.g.,<br />
small w<strong>in</strong>d turb<strong>in</strong>es <strong>an</strong>d solar<br />
water heaters<br />
Encourag<strong>in</strong>g longer stay visitors<br />
Promot<strong>in</strong>g eco-tourism through<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> preservation <strong>of</strong><br />
buffer<strong>in</strong>g ecosystems<br />
Support<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dividual use <strong>of</strong><br />
solar p<strong>an</strong>els <strong>an</strong>d solar water<br />
heaters<br />
Promot<strong>in</strong>g low-energy forms <strong>of</strong><br />
tr<strong>an</strong>sport, e.g., cycl<strong>in</strong>g, shared<br />
cars, hybrid cars, energy efficient<br />
cars<br />
Develop<strong>in</strong>g public tr<strong>an</strong>sportation<br />
Promot<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d support<strong>in</strong>g local<br />
production <strong>of</strong> agricultural goods<br />
Water conservation<br />
Ensur<strong>in</strong>g roads have<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f/dra<strong>in</strong>age systems<br />
� Resource <strong>in</strong>ventories.<br />
� Economic valuations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> impacts <strong>of</strong><br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> scenarios on economic<br />
sectors (tourism, fisheries, agriculture).<br />
� Captur<strong>in</strong>g traditional knowledge from<br />
communities <strong>an</strong>d key natural resource<br />
user groups, such as farmers <strong>an</strong>d<br />
fishers.<br />
� Wea<strong>the</strong>r hazard audit for <strong>in</strong>frastructure.<br />
Policies that ignore climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> risks<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> low-ly<strong>in</strong>g or easily<br />
flooded areas<br />
Us<strong>in</strong>g air-condition<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Encourag<strong>in</strong>g visitors to <strong>the</strong> isl<strong>an</strong>d<br />
on short stays/weekend breaks.<br />
Promot<strong>in</strong>g eco-tourism through<br />
<strong>the</strong> exploitation <strong>of</strong> natural<br />
resources<br />
Prevent<strong>in</strong>g use <strong>of</strong> solar p<strong>an</strong>els or<br />
solar water heaters<br />
Encourag<strong>in</strong>g use <strong>of</strong> large energy<strong>in</strong>tensive<br />
vehicles, e.g., Hummers,<br />
SUVs<br />
Increas<strong>in</strong>g reli<strong>an</strong>ce on foods<br />
imported from overseas<br />
Water over-use<br />
Roads that do not have<br />
run<strong>of</strong>f/dra<strong>in</strong>age systems<br />
Source: Tompk<strong>in</strong>s et al, 2005<br />
Monitor<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
� Watershed m<strong>an</strong>agement.<br />
� Integration <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> consideration<br />
<strong>in</strong>to day-to-day m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>of</strong> all<br />
sectors.<br />
� Water quality monitor<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> fresh,<br />
sal<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d hyper-sal<strong>in</strong>e waters to track<br />
<strong>the</strong> vulnerability to sea level rise.<br />
� Integrated coastal zone m<strong>an</strong>agement.
� Monitor<strong>in</strong>g systems for sea level rise<br />
<strong>an</strong>d local wave climate.<br />
� Shore l<strong>in</strong>e monitor<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
� Beach nourishment.<br />
� Reduction <strong>of</strong> external stresses on<br />
coastal <strong>an</strong>d mar<strong>in</strong>e ecosystems,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g coral reefs, sea grass beds,<br />
salt marshes, <strong>an</strong>d wetl<strong>an</strong>ds.<br />
� Post-disaster preparedness pl<strong>an</strong>s.<br />
Build<strong>in</strong>g capacity<br />
� Improvements to data m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
systems.<br />
� Increas<strong>in</strong>g local research <strong>an</strong>d scientific<br />
capacity.<br />
� Build<strong>in</strong>g l<strong>in</strong>kages between local<br />
research <strong>in</strong>itiatives <strong>an</strong>d communities.<br />
“<br />
Widespread public<br />
awareness <strong>an</strong>d education are<br />
necessary to <strong>an</strong>y effort to get<br />
support for climate policy<br />
<strong>an</strong>d adaptation.<br />
”<br />
4.3.4 Information<br />
It is also import<strong>an</strong>t for decision makers,<br />
whatever <strong>the</strong> sector, to have adequate <strong>an</strong>d<br />
appropriate <strong>in</strong>formation, not only about<br />
risks <strong>an</strong>d vulnerability, but also about<br />
options for tak<strong>in</strong>g action.<br />
It is not just decision makers who need to<br />
underst<strong>an</strong>d climate risks; <strong>the</strong> public at<br />
large <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> private sector do too. One <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> implications <strong>of</strong> this is <strong>the</strong> need for early<br />
warn<strong>in</strong>g systems to <strong>in</strong>clude a strong communications<br />
component.<br />
Widespread public awareness <strong>an</strong>d education<br />
are necessary to <strong>an</strong>y effort to get support<br />
for climate policy <strong>an</strong>d adaptation. Not<br />
only do all groups need to underst<strong>an</strong>d<br />
potential risk <strong>an</strong>d vulnerability, <strong>the</strong>y also<br />
need to appreciate <strong>the</strong> benefits <strong>of</strong> adaptation<br />
<strong>an</strong>d early action, particularly as <strong>the</strong>y<br />
relate to <strong>the</strong>ir <strong>in</strong>dividual circumst<strong>an</strong>ces.<br />
4.4 How <strong>in</strong>dividuals c<strong>an</strong><br />
make a difference<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> may seem like<br />
a daunt<strong>in</strong>g task, <strong>an</strong>d it may appear to be<br />
<strong>the</strong> responsibility <strong>of</strong> governments because<br />
<strong>of</strong> all <strong>the</strong> policy level actions required. Governments<br />
do <strong>in</strong>deed have a lead role to<br />
play <strong>in</strong> sett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> agenda for climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation <strong>an</strong>d mitigation <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
national context <strong>an</strong>d putt<strong>in</strong>g th<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong><br />
place to ensure that <strong>the</strong> necessary steps<br />
are taken. However, ord<strong>in</strong>ary citizens <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> also make a difference. In<br />
m<strong>an</strong>y cases, all that is needed are small<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>s <strong>in</strong> lifestyle <strong>an</strong>d habits.<br />
4.4.1 Reduc<strong>in</strong>g personal<br />
vulnerability<br />
Individuals, households <strong>an</strong>d bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
c<strong>an</strong> take proactive measures to reduce<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir personal vulnerability to natural hazards.<br />
It is import<strong>an</strong>t, for example, to avoid<br />
build<strong>in</strong>g homes <strong>an</strong>d bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> hazardprone<br />
areas, such as flood pla<strong>in</strong>s or certa<strong>in</strong><br />
sections <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coastal zone.<br />
In cyclone-prone regions, reduc<strong>in</strong>g vulnerability<br />
<strong>in</strong>cludes such th<strong>in</strong>gs as ensur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
hurric<strong>an</strong>e-read<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>of</strong> homes <strong>an</strong>d build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
by <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g:<br />
� Have a pl<strong>an</strong> <strong>in</strong> place to secure property,<br />
<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g a system for protect<strong>in</strong>g<br />
w<strong>in</strong>dows <strong>an</strong>d glass doors. This could<br />
be perm<strong>an</strong>ent storm shutters or hav<strong>in</strong>g<br />
on h<strong>an</strong>d 5/8” mar<strong>in</strong>e plywood cut to fit<br />
<strong>an</strong>d ready for <strong>in</strong>stallation.<br />
� Install straps or additional clips to<br />
securely fasten ro<strong>of</strong>s to build<strong>in</strong>gs’<br />
frame structure.<br />
� Regularly prune trees <strong>an</strong>d shrubs<br />
around build<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />
� Keep up with rout<strong>in</strong>e ma<strong>in</strong>ten<strong>an</strong>ce <strong>an</strong>d<br />
keep ra<strong>in</strong> gutters <strong>an</strong>d downspouts<br />
clear <strong>of</strong> debris.<br />
� Identify where <strong>an</strong>d how boats will be<br />
secured.<br />
71
In regions prone to drought or periods <strong>of</strong><br />
water shortage:<br />
� Pl<strong>an</strong>t drought toler<strong>an</strong>t pl<strong>an</strong>ts <strong>in</strong> gardens<br />
<strong>an</strong>d practice water conservation<br />
techniques such as <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> mulch to<br />
reduce evaporation.<br />
� Reduce domestic water consumption,<br />
for example, through <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>stallation <strong>of</strong><br />
water-sav<strong>in</strong>g devices.<br />
� Create a soak away system <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>troduce<br />
gray water recycl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d ra<strong>in</strong>water<br />
harvest<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
4.4.2 Reduc<strong>in</strong>g energy use<br />
Several simple steps c<strong>an</strong> be taken to<br />
reduce tr<strong>an</strong>sport <strong>an</strong>d residential energy<br />
consumption.<br />
Tr<strong>an</strong>sport<br />
� Drive less <strong>an</strong>d drive more slowly. Cars<br />
pollute more when <strong>the</strong>y travel over 90<br />
km/hr.<br />
� Do not idle car eng<strong>in</strong>es for longer th<strong>an</strong><br />
10 seconds; idl<strong>in</strong>g for longer periods<br />
uses more fuel th<strong>an</strong> shutt<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong>f <strong>an</strong>d<br />
restart<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> car.<br />
� Car-pool or use public tr<strong>an</strong>sport.<br />
� Purchase energy efficient vehicles<br />
when replac<strong>in</strong>g exist<strong>in</strong>g models.<br />
Household<br />
� Power down by turn<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong>f appli<strong>an</strong>ces<br />
when not <strong>in</strong> use.<br />
72<br />
Anguilla harbour is vulnerable to sea level<br />
rise. Credit: Anguilla National Trust<br />
� Improve heat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d cool<strong>in</strong>g energy<br />
efficiency. Reduce home heat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
temperate climates <strong>an</strong>d cool less <strong>in</strong><br />
tropical climates. Use double glazed<br />
w<strong>in</strong>dows to improve <strong>in</strong>sulation <strong>in</strong> temperate<br />
climates <strong>an</strong>d construct build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> tropics to take adv<strong>an</strong>tage <strong>of</strong><br />
air flows.<br />
� Use energy-efficient appli<strong>an</strong>ces. New<br />
refrigerators, for example, use 40 per<br />
cent less energy th<strong>an</strong> models made<br />
just 10 years ago.<br />
� Replace <strong>in</strong>c<strong>an</strong>descent light bulbs with<br />
efficiency rated fluorescent ones.<br />
Energy efficient light bulbs use 75 per<br />
cent less energy <strong>an</strong>d last 10 times<br />
longer th<strong>an</strong> conventional ones.<br />
4.4.3 Practic<strong>in</strong>g good<br />
environmental habits<br />
Look after <strong>the</strong> environment <strong>an</strong>d it will look<br />
after you. The damage to <strong>the</strong> environment<br />
caused by hum<strong>an</strong> activity makes <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
more vulnerable to <strong>the</strong> negative effects <strong>of</strong><br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. Good environmental<br />
habits like dispos<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> garbage <strong>an</strong>d waste<br />
properly <strong>an</strong>d not cutt<strong>in</strong>g down trees also<br />
contribute to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation<br />
<strong>an</strong>d mitigation.<br />
� Keep rivers <strong>an</strong>d watercourses free <strong>of</strong><br />
garbage, debris <strong>an</strong>d effluent to help<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> health <strong>of</strong> wetl<strong>an</strong>ds <strong>an</strong>d<br />
reefs so that <strong>the</strong>y c<strong>an</strong> perform <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
ecological coastal defence functions.<br />
� Ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong>d protect m<strong>an</strong>groves.<br />
Keep<strong>in</strong>g m<strong>an</strong>grove forests <strong>in</strong>tact allows<br />
<strong>the</strong>m to ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir liv<strong>in</strong>g barrier<br />
function. Convert<strong>in</strong>g m<strong>an</strong>groves for<br />
hum<strong>an</strong> use like construction <strong>of</strong> roads,<br />
homes or bus<strong>in</strong>esses, dump<strong>in</strong>g<br />
garbage <strong>in</strong> m<strong>an</strong>groves, or cutt<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m<br />
down for fuel wood or agricultural<br />
stakes are all activities that compromise<br />
<strong>the</strong> health <strong>of</strong> m<strong>an</strong>grove forests.<br />
Their ability to support mar<strong>in</strong>e <strong>an</strong>d bird<br />
life is affected <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong>y are less able to
play <strong>the</strong>ir filter<strong>in</strong>g role that reduces <strong>the</strong><br />
amount <strong>of</strong> l<strong>an</strong>d-based run-<strong>of</strong>f <strong>an</strong>d<br />
debris that enters <strong>the</strong> seas. They are<br />
also less effective <strong>in</strong> protect<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
coastal zone from storm surges <strong>an</strong>d<br />
wave action.<br />
� Ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> <strong>an</strong>d protect coral reefs. Pollution<br />
from activities on l<strong>an</strong>d – improper<br />
waste disposal <strong>an</strong>d run-<strong>of</strong>f from<br />
farm<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dustry – affects <strong>the</strong><br />
health <strong>of</strong> coral reefs, as do activities <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> sea. In addition to reduc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
l<strong>an</strong>d-based sources <strong>of</strong> reef stress, it is<br />
import<strong>an</strong>t to ensure that commercial<br />
(fish<strong>in</strong>g) <strong>an</strong>d recreational (scuba<br />
div<strong>in</strong>g, snorkell<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong>d swimm<strong>in</strong>g)<br />
activities do not contribute to damag<strong>in</strong>g<br />
reefs.<br />
� Avoid unsusta<strong>in</strong>able farm<strong>in</strong>g practices.<br />
The misuse <strong>an</strong>d over-use <strong>of</strong> pesticides<br />
<strong>an</strong>d fertilizers, over-cultivation on marg<strong>in</strong>al<br />
l<strong>an</strong>ds, <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>appropriate farm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
techniques on hillsides all contribute to<br />
soil erosion <strong>an</strong>d soil loss. Some <strong>of</strong> this<br />
soil ends up <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>l<strong>an</strong>d water bodies<br />
Beach cle<strong>an</strong>-up <strong>in</strong> Anguilla.<br />
Credit: Anguilla National Trust<br />
(rivers, lakes, ponds); some makes its<br />
way to <strong>the</strong> mar<strong>in</strong>e environment. Pollution<br />
<strong>of</strong> water sources reduces <strong>the</strong><br />
amount <strong>of</strong> fresh water that is available<br />
for domestic <strong>an</strong>d commercial use. In<br />
drought-prone areas, this could lead to<br />
competition over a scarce resource.<br />
4.4.4 Improv<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>ess practices<br />
Underst<strong>an</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g both <strong>the</strong> need <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
opportunities for adaptation to climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is fast becom<strong>in</strong>g <strong>an</strong> essential<br />
requirement <strong>of</strong> both governments <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong><br />
private sector <strong>of</strong> vulnerable countries <strong>an</strong>d<br />
makes good bus<strong>in</strong>ess sense. No matter<br />
how big or how small, bus<strong>in</strong>esses c<strong>an</strong> also<br />
do <strong>the</strong>ir bit to tackle climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
� M<strong>an</strong>age risk. As extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
events <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>tense natural hazards<br />
<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly become a part <strong>of</strong> life <strong>in</strong><br />
some <strong>UKOTs</strong>, bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>of</strong> all sizes<br />
will have to look carefully at <strong>the</strong>ir exposure<br />
to risk <strong>an</strong>d take proactive measures<br />
to reduce it. This could me<strong>an</strong><br />
tak<strong>in</strong>g steps to secure equipment, vital<br />
records, <strong>an</strong>d build<strong>in</strong>gs dur<strong>in</strong>g cyclones<br />
or tak<strong>in</strong>g measures to ensure consistency<br />
<strong>of</strong> adequate water supplies<br />
dur<strong>in</strong>g periods <strong>of</strong> shortage. Reduc<strong>in</strong>g<br />
risk also me<strong>an</strong>s adher<strong>in</strong>g to build<strong>in</strong>g<br />
codes, comply<strong>in</strong>g with environmental<br />
regulations <strong>an</strong>d legislation <strong>an</strong>d not<br />
tak<strong>in</strong>g short cuts. Much c<strong>an</strong> be done at<br />
<strong>the</strong> design stage to m<strong>in</strong>imise risk, from<br />
choices about build<strong>in</strong>g materials to<br />
where to site build<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>an</strong>d even architectural<br />
features.<br />
� Increase energy efficiency <strong>an</strong>d use<br />
renewable energy sources. Bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> are not likely to face a cap on<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir emissions <strong>an</strong>y time soon, but <strong>the</strong><br />
sav<strong>in</strong>gs that come from <strong>in</strong>creased<br />
energy efficiency <strong>an</strong>d from replac<strong>in</strong>g<br />
fossil fuels with alternative sources <strong>of</strong><br />
energy will make a difference to <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
bottom l<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> medium to long-term.<br />
Increas<strong>in</strong>g energy efficiency c<strong>an</strong> be as<br />
73
simple as replac<strong>in</strong>g light bulbs, power<strong>in</strong>g<br />
down equipment that c<strong>an</strong> be<br />
turned <strong>of</strong>f when not <strong>in</strong> use or mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />
modifications to production l<strong>in</strong>e<br />
processes. The cost <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
alternative sources <strong>of</strong> energy, such as<br />
solar or w<strong>in</strong>d technologies, may <strong>in</strong>itially<br />
be high but will tr<strong>an</strong>slate <strong>in</strong>to sav<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> medium to long-term.<br />
� Use cle<strong>an</strong> technology <strong>an</strong>d susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
product sources. As with shift<strong>in</strong>g to<br />
alternative energy, <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>itial outlay for<br />
newer, cle<strong>an</strong>er technologies c<strong>an</strong> be<br />
high, but <strong>the</strong>y too generally tr<strong>an</strong>slate<br />
<strong>in</strong>to sav<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> medium to long-term.<br />
74<br />
4.4.5 Advocat<strong>in</strong>g for<br />
implementation <strong>of</strong> national<br />
adaptation pl<strong>an</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
development policies<br />
Citizens play <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t role. UKOT citizens<br />
<strong>an</strong>d citizen org<strong>an</strong>isations c<strong>an</strong> call for<br />
national climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> adaptation pl<strong>an</strong>s<br />
to be developed <strong>an</strong>d implemented. They<br />
c<strong>an</strong> promote <strong>the</strong> implementation <strong>of</strong> susta<strong>in</strong>able<br />
development policies. Examples<br />
<strong>of</strong> such policies <strong>in</strong>clude <strong>the</strong> designation<br />
<strong>an</strong>d proper m<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>of</strong> protected<br />
areas, <strong>the</strong> implementation <strong>of</strong> coastal zone<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d compli<strong>an</strong>ce with development<br />
pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g regulations.<br />
Chapter summary<br />
Choos<strong>in</strong>g not to address climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d its impacts would be a false economy<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong>. Although it is hard to say what <strong>the</strong> full impact <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> on <strong>the</strong> territories<br />
will be, it is already apparent that <strong>the</strong>y will be adversely affected.<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g climate is, however, <strong>an</strong> opportunity for <strong>UKOTs</strong> to scale up exist<strong>in</strong>g measures<br />
for deal<strong>in</strong>g with natural hazards <strong>an</strong>d to improve natural resource m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
<strong>an</strong>d physical pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g processes. The <strong>in</strong>herent vulnerability that comes from <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
small size makes <strong>the</strong>m even more sensitive to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> impacts. It is, <strong>the</strong>refore,<br />
very import<strong>an</strong>t for <strong>UKOTs</strong> to take measures to shore up <strong>the</strong>ir structures to withst<strong>an</strong>d<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> (adaptation).<br />
Even if <strong>the</strong>y did not have to contend with climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, adaptive measures would<br />
make <strong>UKOTs</strong> better able to deal with <strong>the</strong> natural hazards that are part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> normal<br />
climate variability, as well as <strong>the</strong> grow<strong>in</strong>g hum<strong>an</strong>-<strong>in</strong>duced stresses on <strong>the</strong> environment.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong>y are not major producers <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases, <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> play<br />
a role <strong>in</strong> help<strong>in</strong>g to reduce <strong>the</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> impact on <strong>the</strong> climate system (mitigation).<br />
Address<strong>in</strong>g climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is everybody’s bus<strong>in</strong>ess. Governments have <strong>an</strong> import<strong>an</strong>t<br />
role to play <strong>in</strong> sett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> national agenda <strong>an</strong>d putt<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> place <strong>the</strong> policies, programmes<br />
<strong>an</strong>d structures that make it possible for o<strong>the</strong>rs to play <strong>the</strong>ir part <strong>in</strong> adaptation<br />
<strong>an</strong>d mitigation. It is import<strong>an</strong>t to have <strong>in</strong>centives <strong>in</strong> place that encourage early<br />
appropriate action ra<strong>the</strong>r th<strong>an</strong> promote remedial responses.<br />
No contribution to <strong>the</strong> national effort to address climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is too small. Bus<strong>in</strong>esses,<br />
households <strong>an</strong>d even <strong>in</strong>dividuals c<strong>an</strong> take steps to make <strong>the</strong>ir property more<br />
resilient to extreme wea<strong>the</strong>r, reduce <strong>the</strong>ir energy use <strong>an</strong>d play <strong>the</strong>ir part <strong>in</strong> ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
a healthy environment.
Why climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> matters<br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
5<br />
Unpack<strong>in</strong>g<br />
climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
The Way Forward<br />
The global trend <strong>in</strong> average surface temperature<br />
is upwards <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> pace at which<br />
it is mov<strong>in</strong>g is fast. While <strong>the</strong>re are still<br />
uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties surround<strong>in</strong>g future projections<br />
<strong>an</strong>d possible impacts, <strong>the</strong> evidence<br />
po<strong>in</strong>ts to unprecedented <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, with<br />
potentially dire consequences. Because <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong>ir <strong>in</strong>herent vulnerabilities, <strong>the</strong>re is a lot<br />
at stake for <strong>UKOTs</strong> .<br />
There is no quick fix to <strong>the</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
problem <strong>an</strong>d no s<strong>in</strong>gle policy will set us on<br />
<strong>the</strong> right path. No s<strong>in</strong>gle country or group<br />
<strong>of</strong> countries act<strong>in</strong>g alone c<strong>an</strong> solve <strong>the</strong><br />
Coral reef monitor<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> British<br />
Virg<strong>in</strong> Isl<strong>an</strong>ds (BVI).<br />
Credit: BVI National Trust<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>:<br />
present <strong>an</strong>d<br />
future impacts<br />
What c<strong>an</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> do<br />
about climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>?<br />
The way<br />
forward<br />
problem. This global issue requires <strong>an</strong><br />
agreement between nations <strong>of</strong> all sizes<br />
<strong>an</strong>d at all stages <strong>of</strong> development. It<br />
requires a commitment to jo<strong>in</strong>t <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />
action by governments, <strong>the</strong> private<br />
sector, communities, civil society, households<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dividuals. It requires social,<br />
economic, environmental, <strong>an</strong>d cultural<br />
policies <strong>an</strong>d actions. It requires vision <strong>an</strong>d<br />
creativity.<br />
5.1 What does this me<strong>an</strong><br />
for <strong>UKOTs</strong>?<br />
• Action. No country has <strong>the</strong> luxury <strong>of</strong><br />
wait<strong>in</strong>g to see how <strong>the</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
challenge will play out, least <strong>of</strong> all <strong>the</strong><br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong>, where m<strong>an</strong>y ecosystems are<br />
among those that have already been<br />
identified as most vulnerable to climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d have begun to experience<br />
adverse effects <strong>of</strong> <strong>an</strong> unstable climate.<br />
• M<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>an</strong>d protection <strong>of</strong><br />
ecosystems. Look<strong>in</strong>g after biodiversity<br />
<strong>an</strong>d critical ecosystems helps ensure<br />
that <strong>the</strong>y carry out <strong>the</strong>ir ecological functions<br />
<strong>an</strong>d services as well as <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
resist<strong>an</strong>ce to climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
• <strong>Climate</strong>-pro<strong>of</strong><strong>in</strong>g national policies<br />
<strong>an</strong>d development. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
has to become a long-term strategic<br />
issue for <strong>UKOTs</strong> that is factored <strong>in</strong>to<br />
decision <strong>an</strong>d policymak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> all<br />
spheres, from water resource m<strong>an</strong>agement<br />
to physical pl<strong>an</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g to agriculture<br />
75
76<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>dustrial development. This<br />
<strong>in</strong>cludes tak<strong>in</strong>g a multi-sector <strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>tegrated<br />
approach to decision mak<strong>in</strong>g<br />
that br<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> views <strong>an</strong>d perspectives<br />
<strong>of</strong> a r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>terest groups or<br />
stakeholders <strong>in</strong> society.<br />
• Reduc<strong>in</strong>g greenhouse gas emissions.<br />
Capp<strong>in</strong>g carbon dioxide emissions<br />
is essential if we are to avoid<br />
global climate chaos. Even though <strong>the</strong>y<br />
are small contributors to <strong>the</strong> global<br />
problem, <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> take steps to<br />
reduce <strong>the</strong>ir impact on <strong>the</strong> climate<br />
system by reduc<strong>in</strong>g fossil fuel dependency<br />
<strong>an</strong>d <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g energy efficiency.<br />
• Shar<strong>in</strong>g good practice <strong>an</strong>d lessons<br />
learned. <strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> learn much from<br />
each o<strong>the</strong>r by shar<strong>in</strong>g good practice<br />
<strong>an</strong>d lessons from experience.<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> c<strong>an</strong> tackle climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
effectively<br />
<strong>UKOTs</strong> have it <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir power to adapt to climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>an</strong>d to reduce <strong>the</strong>ir own<br />
impact on <strong>the</strong> global ecosystem. The<br />
chapters <strong>in</strong> this book expla<strong>in</strong> what climate<br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> is, why it matters, present <strong>an</strong>d<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d farm <strong>in</strong> St. Helena.<br />
Credit: St. Helena National Trust<br />
future impacts, <strong>an</strong>d suggest what <strong>UKOTs</strong><br />
c<strong>an</strong> do about climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. By establish<strong>in</strong>g<br />
strategies <strong>an</strong>d implement<strong>in</strong>g policies<br />
to adapt to <strong>an</strong>d mitigate aga<strong>in</strong>st<br />
climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> will be provid<strong>in</strong>g<br />
a firm foundation for <strong>the</strong>ir own future<br />
well-be<strong>in</strong>g.
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80
What do droughts <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Mediterr<strong>an</strong>e<strong>an</strong>, more <strong>in</strong>tense hurric<strong>an</strong>es <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong>,<br />
warmer seas <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> South Atl<strong>an</strong>tic, <strong>an</strong>d disappear<strong>in</strong>g coastl<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Pacific have <strong>in</strong><br />
common? They are all results <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> phenomenon known as climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>. <strong>Climate</strong><br />
<strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>, or global warm<strong>in</strong>g as it is sometimes called, refers to <strong>the</strong> steady climb <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Earth’s temperature caused by <strong>in</strong>creased levels <strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide <strong>an</strong>d o<strong>the</strong>r gases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
atmosphere. It is a press<strong>in</strong>g issue for <strong>the</strong> entire global community <strong>an</strong>d it is one that <strong>the</strong><br />
14 United K<strong>in</strong>gdom Overseas Territories (<strong>UKOTs</strong>) c<strong>an</strong>not afford to ignore.<br />
This book provides <strong>an</strong> <strong>overview</strong> <strong>of</strong> what is happen<strong>in</strong>g globally <strong>in</strong> terms <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong><br />
<strong>an</strong>d how this will affect <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong>. It stresses <strong>the</strong> need for urgent action by all <strong>of</strong> us <strong>an</strong>d<br />
provides practical suggestions for, <strong>an</strong>d examples <strong>of</strong>, mitigation <strong>an</strong>d adaptation strategies.<br />
This document forms part <strong>of</strong> series on climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories,<br />
prepared by <strong>the</strong> Caribbe<strong>an</strong> Natural Resources Institute for <strong>the</strong> Jo<strong>in</strong>t Nature Conservation<br />
Committee. It has been funded by <strong>the</strong> Overseas Territories Environment Programme<br />
(OTEP) with assist<strong>an</strong>ce from <strong>the</strong> Commonwealth Foundation. Th<strong>an</strong>ks are due to <strong>the</strong><br />
m<strong>an</strong>y persons <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>UKOTs</strong> who provided <strong>in</strong>puts <strong>an</strong>d advice. Documents <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> series:<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories : An Overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Science,<br />
Policy <strong>an</strong>d You - A look at climate science <strong>an</strong>d policy <strong>an</strong>d how global warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />
affects UK Overseas Territories.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories : A Brief Overview <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
Science, Policy <strong>an</strong>d You - Executive summary <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> document above.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge: An Overview for Politici<strong>an</strong>s <strong>an</strong>d Senior Decision Makers - Key<br />
issues for policy <strong>an</strong>d decision makers to take <strong>in</strong>to account <strong>in</strong> climate-pro<strong>of</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
national policies <strong>an</strong>d programmes.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge: A Practical Guide for Your Org<strong>an</strong>isation - How bus<strong>in</strong>esses c<strong>an</strong><br />
reduce <strong>the</strong>ir carbon footpr<strong>in</strong>t.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories (DVDs): Part 1: Impacts <strong>an</strong>d Part<br />
2: Adaptation <strong>an</strong>d mitigation<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Ch<strong>an</strong>ge: A Practical Guide for You – Simple th<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>in</strong>dividuals c<strong>an</strong> do<br />
to reduce <strong>the</strong>ir climate impact.<br />
Guid<strong>an</strong>ce for Biodiversity Conservation <strong>an</strong>d M<strong>an</strong>agement <strong>in</strong> a Ch<strong>an</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> UK Overseas Territories – Practical guid<strong>an</strong>ce for <strong>the</strong> practitioners<br />
who must pl<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d m<strong>an</strong>age biodiversity <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> face <strong>of</strong> climate <strong>ch<strong>an</strong>ge</strong>.<br />
Copies available on <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternet at http://www.jncc.gov.uk/page-4362<br />
Paper copies c<strong>an</strong> be requested from:<br />
Jo<strong>in</strong>t Nature Conservation Committee (<strong>JNCC</strong>)<br />
Monkstone House, City Road<br />
Peterborough PE1 1JY<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Tel: +44 (0) 1733 562626; Fax: +44 (0) 1733 555948<br />
Email: communications@jncc.gov.uk ISBN-13:978 1 86107 609 0