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Climate change in the UKOTs an overview of the ... - JNCC - Defra

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L<strong>an</strong>d use (18%)<br />

Agriculture (14%)<br />

Waste (3%)<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r energy related<br />

(5%)<br />

NON-ENERGY<br />

EMISSIONS<br />

Waste<br />

Agriculture<br />

L<strong>an</strong>d use<br />

Industry (14%)<br />

Power (24%)<br />

Tr<strong>an</strong>sport (14%)<br />

Build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

(8%)<br />

ENERGY EMISSIONS<br />

Power<br />

Tr<strong>an</strong>sport<br />

Build<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

Industry<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r energy related<br />

Figure 7. Greenhouse-gas emissions <strong>in</strong><br />

2000, by source. Source: Prepared by Stern Review,<br />

from data drawn from World Resources Institute <strong>Climate</strong><br />

Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) on-l<strong>in</strong>e database version 3.0.<br />

technological adv<strong>an</strong>ces over <strong>the</strong> past 60<br />

to 100 years that have <strong>of</strong>fered hum<strong>an</strong>k<strong>in</strong>d<br />

countless benefits <strong>an</strong>d conveniences.<br />

These <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> hum<strong>an</strong> activity, however,<br />

have also led to <strong>an</strong> additional release<br />

<strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases that have placed<br />

stress on natural processes.<br />

Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> gases, such as carbon<br />

dioxide, water vapour, meth<strong>an</strong>e, nitrous<br />

oxide, <strong>an</strong>d ozone are <strong>the</strong> result<br />

<strong>of</strong> both natural <strong>an</strong>d hum<strong>an</strong><br />

processes. O<strong>the</strong>rs, notably fluor<strong>in</strong>ated<br />

gases, are generated<br />

solely by hum<strong>an</strong> activities. The<br />

sources <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se gas emissions<br />

<strong>in</strong>clude burn<strong>in</strong>g fossil fuels to<br />

power our way <strong>of</strong> life, <strong>in</strong>dustrial<br />

processes, urb<strong>an</strong>isation <strong>an</strong>d<br />

l<strong>an</strong>d use, agriculture <strong>an</strong>d deforestation<br />

(Figure 7 <strong>an</strong>d Box 4).<br />

S<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong>dustrial revolution, concentrations<br />

<strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

atmosphere have <strong>in</strong>creased<br />

nearly 30 per cent (Figure 7),<br />

meth<strong>an</strong>e concentrations have<br />

more th<strong>an</strong> doubled, <strong>an</strong>d nitrous<br />

CO 2 Concentrations (ppmv)<br />

380<br />

360<br />

340<br />

320<br />

300<br />

280<br />

260<br />

0<br />

oxide concentrations have risen by about<br />

15 per cent.<br />

Carbon dioxide <strong>an</strong>d <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong><br />

warm<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Carbon dioxide is <strong>the</strong> s<strong>in</strong>gle largest contributor<br />

to <strong>the</strong> enh<strong>an</strong>ced greenhouse<br />

effect. Increases <strong>in</strong> carbon dioxide emissions<br />

account for approximately 70 per<br />

cent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> enh<strong>an</strong>ced greenhouse effect.<br />

Us<strong>in</strong>g ice cores from <strong>the</strong> Antarctic, scientists<br />

estimate that <strong>the</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong><br />

carbon dioxide <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

pre-<strong>in</strong>dustrial era had a value <strong>of</strong> approximately<br />

280 parts per million (ppm). Measurements<br />

<strong>in</strong> 2005 put it at 379 ppm. The<br />

2005 figures also tell a story <strong>of</strong> alarm<strong>in</strong>g<br />

growth. The 2005 carbon dioxide levels<br />

exceeded <strong>the</strong> natural r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> atmospheric<br />

carbon dioxide over <strong>the</strong> last<br />

650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm). In addition,<br />

even though <strong>the</strong>re has been year to<br />

year variability (at <strong>an</strong> average <strong>of</strong> 1.9 ppm),<br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>an</strong>nual growth rate <strong>of</strong> carbon dioxide<br />

concentrations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> atmosphere was<br />

larger dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> 10 years between 1995<br />

<strong>an</strong>d 2005 th<strong>an</strong> it had been s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>of</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>uous direct atmospheric<br />

measurements between 1960 <strong>an</strong>d 2005<br />

(average: 1.4 ppm per year) (IPCC, 2007).<br />

Atmospheric Concentrations<br />

Anthropogenic Emissions<br />

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000<br />

Year<br />

Figure 8. Trends <strong>in</strong> Atmospheric Concentrations <strong>an</strong>d<br />

Anthropogenic Emissions <strong>of</strong> Carbon Dioxide<br />

Source: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.<br />

7.000<br />

6.000<br />

5.000<br />

4.000<br />

3.000<br />

2.000<br />

1.000<br />

0<br />

CO 2 Emissions (million metric tons <strong>of</strong> carbon)<br />

35

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