Climate change in the UKOTs an overview of the ... - JNCC - Defra

Changing growing seasons, drought and
water shortages are placing a strain on
food production in some territories. Those
territories that are prone to tropical
cyclones risk devastation of local agriculture
after intense storms. Scientists do not
yet know the full effect that global warming
will have on agriculture. What they do
know is that temperature, carbon dioxide
concentration and ozone levels all affect
crop yields.
Health: The IPCC projects that climate
change will increase the burden of disease
globally (Parry et al., 2007). The health
risks associated with extreme weather in
UKOTs will increase. It is also likely that the
incidence of water and vector borne diseases
will increase as water availability is
affected and higher temperatures change
the geographic distribution of vectors and
shorten incubation periods.
Water resources: Though it is difficult to
predict exactly what rainfall patterns will be
in future, precipitation changes are likely to
influence water supplies. The wet and dry
cycles associated with ENSO events can
seriously affect water supplies in countries
that are heavily dependent on rain water.
Ground water supplies, in small islands in
particular, face possible threats from contamination
by salt water. Drought-prone
regions that already experience water
44
A Cayman Islands’ beach, before and after erosion.
Credit: Department of Environment, Cayman Islands Government
shortages, like the Mediterranean, are
likely to see more acute scarcity.
Economic and financial impacts: The
small and narrow economic bases of the
UKOTs make them very vulnerable to
external shocks. All of the physical impacts
of climate change in the coastal zone have
associated economic costs. Some are
direct, as in the case of damage to infrastructure
(see below), human settlements,
crops etc. Others are indirect, such as foregone
earnings from major sectors like
tourism and loss of the services of critical
ecosystems. Extreme weather events,
such as hurricanes or tropical storms, can
be particularly costly. For example, Hurricane
Ivan in 2004 cost the Cayman Islands
USD3,432 million or 138 per cent of GDP
(Zapata Martí, 2005). There are also considerable
costs associated with
addressing climate change proactively by
reducing risk and building resilience.
“ The goods and services
that coastal and marine
ecosystems provide UKOTs
are critical to the well-being
of their people and
economies
”