Climate change in the UKOTs an overview of the ... - JNCC - Defra

Ascension
Island
St. Helena
Falkland
Islands
Tristan da
Cunha 13
56
Country Impacts
Table 3. Country impacts – South Atlantic
Increase in sea temperature.
Sea level rise will adversely affect nesting beaches and could cause a drop in sea
turtle nesting success due to nest inundation.
Changes in regional seasonal rainfall patterns could advance the spread of
invasive plant species and increase erosion.
Fish stocks and the fishing industry are at the highest risk from climate change.
Changes in air and sea temperatures could influence weather patterns and
cause disruption to established wind and rainfall patterns, leading to floods,
drought, and/or soil erosion.
Research points to a strong warming trend in air temperature (2°C over 60
years) and a slight decrease in rainfall. Over time, the latter could have
implications for local water supplies.
Altitudinal shifts in vegetation zones.
Currently identifiable ecological imbalances could become even more marked.
Cooler, less saline water may affect distribution and abundance of the main
inshore fauna and flora.
There is need for more research and data gathering on the effects of climate
change in the Falklands. To date, little is known about the effects of climate
change on plant communities or about what it means for whale and dolphin
communities.
There has been little monitoring of climate-linked changes on Tristan da Cunha
and Gough Island, so the full extent of impacts is unknown. However, anecdotal
evidence and observation of certain trends point to the several likely changes.
Increased invasiveness of introduced species due to warmer temperatures.
Species introduced from South Africa, especially invertebrates and plants, that
at one time would not survive, may establish themselves.
Warmer temperatures could lead to an increase in the mouse population
increasing the threat to species like the Tristan albatross (Diomedea dabbenena),
which is already considered ‘critically endangered’.
There may be a potential risk to the five seamounts in the islands’ exclusive
economic zone.
Coastal areas are likely to be affected if there is a rise in seawater, as it could
encroach on the native habitat forcing species that breed in the coastal zone,
such as the northern rockhopper penguin (Eudyptes chrysocome moseleyi) and