18042021 - Ex-Gov Aliyu Lied, not all northern govs worked against Jonathan in 2015

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PAGE 14—SUNDAY VANGUARD, APRIL 18, 2021 Nigeria’s Economy: What is the truth? The immediate implication of a chasm which public information management in Nigeria has successfully created between the government and the people is that the country now has two major debating groups. The first group is made up of those who adversely criticize whatever President Muhammadu Buhari does or fails to do, while the second group consists of those who see no wrong whatsoever in the activities of Buhari’s government. The two groups have something in common which is that most Nigerians do not understand either of them. Perhaps because both groups are unaware of this situation, they have continued to seize every opportunity to eloquently disagree with one another on every subject so as to convince us that they have good points either way. So, when Edo state governor Godwin Obaseki last week painted a frightening picture but which looks like a true story of the precarious Nigerian economy, the resultant huge war of words between the pro and anti-Buhari crusaders especially the non-state actors could not have surprised any analyst who has followed street debates in the country. As if to sensitize people on the state of the nation’s economy, Obaseki had raised an alarm that our finances have gone so low that last month,government had to print more money for states to share to meet their obligations. This was unacceptable to some people who decided to react to the allegation. First, was an unsigned statement that government was unaware of any printing of money as alleged. One comedian immediately tweeted that “the man didn’t say you were aware, he said you printed.”The second reaction described the governor’s alarm as a lie while the third educated us on the correct terminology for what happened - lending, not printing. Painfully, what should be of concern to us has been buried by the controversy. The fact that what was shared was a form of loan seems to establish that there was not enough to share. Whether the extra that was borrowed was printed or conjured by a magician cannot controvert the fact that Nigeria is hugely broke. If such truth must be told to put our status in correct perspective, then Obaseki’s alarm can hardly be wished away especially if his entire statement and not just theexcerpt on printing is read in full. Indeed, there are vital parts of the statement that have been ignored. For the benefit of those who may not have read Obaseki’s statement, here is a crucial aspect that ought not to be d o w n p l a y e d o r discountenanced. According to the governor, “everywhere else, governments rely on the people to produce taxes and that is what they use to run the local government, state and the federation. But with the way we run Nigeria, the country can go to sleep. At the end of the month, we just go to Abuja, collect money and we come back to spend. We are in trouble, huge financial trouble. The current price of crude oil is only a mirage. The major oil companies who are the ones producing are no longer investing much in oil. Shell is pulling out of Nigeria and Chevron is now one of the world’s largest investors in alternative fuel, so in another year or so, where will we find this money that we go to share in Abuja?” This quotation is no doubt a veritable wake-up call for us all to rise to the occasion and change our spending habit. This is more so when the governor also clearly stated that it would be unfair for Nigerians to expect one man – Buhari, to be left alone to face the enormous problems. In other words, the governor’s statement created no room for claims and counter claims amongst politicians or What displeases Nigerians is not the disclosure of the true state of their nation’s economy but the transparent inequity where at this critical stage, some people still enjoy wardrobe, newspaper or other forms of annoying comfort while others are dying supporters. It is also important to make the point that this is not the first time some of us are getting confused about the internal sources of Nigeria’s colossal loans. Last month, Mele Kyari, Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) announced that his corporation could no longer bear the huge subsidy payments of over N120 billion monthly subsidy for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). The NNPC according to Kyari has been absorbing the cost differential between the actual and selling cost of the product by recording it in its financial books. Not many understood the statement. From which of its books does NNPC get such huge sums every month? If NNPC had been paying all its funds into the Federation Account as legally expected what magic does the Corporation employ to accommodate massive subsidy payments; is it by merely writing the amounts in its books? Indeed, during the peak of the Covid 19 pandemic, there were certain expenses which Nigeria was too broke to accommodate and which both the NNPC and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), graciously accepted to co-settle. Do these two bodies have their own supply of funds? Answers to a question such as this may illuminate the state of Nigeria’s finances Is Nigeria really in financial trouble, if so, to what extent? The latest answer to this question was given a few days ago by Finance Minister Zainab Ahmed who said “the nation’s debt profile was still within sustainable limit.” The statement was quite comforting on its face value but the situation on ground appears to counter it because if we still have capacity to borrow more, why not go ahead and resolve the numerous issues waiting to be settled? From basic economics we can imagine that our current inflation rate reflects a decline in the purchasing power of our naira which is itself not available to many. Only last week, the National Bureau of Statistics released her consumer price index (CPI) for March 2021. In the report,inflation was said to have risen to 18 percent in March representing 0.82 percent when compared to 17 percent recorded in February. Similarly, food inflation rose by 5.0 percent to 23 percent in March from 22 percent in February. The report is worth worrying about especially as the scarce funds available are swallowed by personnel costs across the nation. How do we develop? The body language of the CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele at the press conference where he was requested to react to Obaseki’s comment, showed he was visibly upset that his sacrifices do not appear appreciated. Of course no responsible CBN can watch her nation in trouble without intervening. Again, no one doubts that our CBN has never been this stressed in history. Governor Emefiele must take solace in the fact that he has been able to withstand the vagaries of the economic weather of Nigeria in the last couple of troublesome years. To say that Nigeria is super broke is not an indictment but telling the truth about our situation for general enlightenment. One of the advantages of educating people on the true status of our economy is that it can have an effect on the increasing demands by different striking Nigerian workers on all kinds of expectations. What displeases Nigerians is not the disclosure of the true state of their nation’s economy but the transparent inequity where at this critical stage, some people still enjoy wardrobe, newspaper or other forms of annoying comfort while others are dying. PhD,Department of Philosophy, Universityof Lagos 08116759758 opuruiche2000@gmail.com On the alleged non-negotiability and sacrosanctity of One Nigeria (4) As I disclosed in our discussion last Sunday, Nigeria’s military government and leaders of the eastern region failed to make inconvenient but necessary concessions which probably would have defused tensions and prevented further escalation. Unfortunately that did not happen, and the devastating avoidable civil war was the end result of that egregious failure. Notwithstanding odious attempts in certain quarters to equalise blame for the conflict or contrive a moral equivalence between Gowon’s chameleonic attitude to the Aburi Accord and Ojukwu’s single-minded determination for its undiluted implementation, the heavier burden of responsibility must be placed at the feet of Gowon, his hawkish advisers, and British diplomats who always put Britain’s strategic economic interests above everything in relating with Nigeria because working in concert they sabotaged the accord. No fairminded person can fault the insistence by Lt. Col. Ojukwuthat “On Aburi we stand.” In my opinion, Gowon’s finagling and failure to implement that agreement is one of the greatest blunders committed by a Nigerian leader since the country was created by British imperialists in 1914. Gong back a little bit into history, it can be plausibly argued that the fundamental error by leading pioneer southern politicians was their misjudgement of the real intentions of northern leaders which prevented them from considering seriously from the very beginning when the struggle for independence gained traction the need for a referendum across the regions to determine whether Nigeria should remain a single country, reconfigured into a confederation like Great Britain or be divided into at least four independent nations. That costly oversight was one of the reasons why they missed the golden opportunity of northern procrastinations or prevarications about self-rule to compel Britain to partition the country in a manner similar to what happened in India. Both Gowon and Ojukwu believed in One Nigeria but disagreed seriously on the foundational principles upon which the country should be built. At the Aburisummit Ojukwu had a clear idea of how Nigeria could be preserved as a single political entity which he formulated with following propositions: “It better that we move slightly apart and survive. It is much worse that we move closer and perish in the collision.” On the other handGowon was bereft of clear ideas about how that could be achieved, which made him vulnerable to Instead of endless hair-splitting arguments about restructuring or true federalism focus should shift to confederation manipulation by northern power mongers. Finally, it is a serious mistake to think that a stable nation can be built on a foundation containing, among other centrifugal forces, nomadic migrant muslim Fulani whose ruling class believe that they are ordained by Allah to rule, together with the largely republican acephalous Igbo who are predominantly christian and the Yoruba with their unique blend of liberal world outlook and monarchy. The parliamentary system inherited from Britain at independence was fairly successful in that the regions enjoyed a considerable degree of autonomy. But for the fixation with One Nigeria created by Britain, regionalism should have evolved or dovetailed into confederation, the only single political arrangement that could beneficially sustain Nigeria as a single political entity while allowing the confederating units to develop to their full potentials untrammelled. Now, as the years inevitably roll by the expressions “restructuring” and “true federalism” bandied about all over the place by notorious wily politicians and others have become so misused and distorted to the extent that what they denote concretely cannot be delineated precisely. Consequently instead of endless hairsplitting arguments about restructuring or true federalism focus should shift to confederation along the lines of Great Britain since a confederal arrangement, aside from its obvious advantages in a multiply plural setting like Nigeria, is more clearly definable and, therefore, more actualisable. At this point, some questions should now be asked: must there be a country called Nigeria as created by Lugard more than a century ago? Is it really true that Nigeria’s unity is non-negotiable and sacrosanct? All things considered, is Nigeria worth preserving? Looked at objectively, there is no good reason why Nigeria should continue to exist especially in its present form. Knowing full well the importance of symbols in the political life of human beings, it is disappointing that since independence Nigerian leaders had not radically modified the geopolitical entity they inherited from Britain in order to signal to the world that they can chart a new course positively different from the one bequeathed by the colonial master. For instance retention of the name ‘Nigeria’ shows lack of historical imagination and insight. In Africa names matter a lot, which was why leaders of former Gold Coast, Northern Rhodesia, Southern Rhodesia, Upper Volta and so on changed the names they inherited from European colonisers to designations that reflected their Africanness. Additionally failure to think beyond what British colonialists envisaged for Nigeria prevented leading southern politicians from realising the extreme difficulty of creating a cohesive and harmonious nation with muslim northerners whose dominant worldview and values are so different from what obtains in the south as to leave very little in common on which such a nation can be founded. I have made this point earlier, but it bears repeating since the ruling power blocks in Nigeria and their lackeys are still pretending that the country is a united and indivisible geopolitical community. As long as members of the northern ruling elite who are predominantly Fulani muslims operating with the hideous agenda of Fulanisation and Islamisation of the entire country retain their stranglehold on power Nigeria will continue to lurch from one ethno-religious and political crisis to another. In this connection the major positive thing about Buhari’s failing presidency is that his unprecedented negative triumphalist nepotism has really opened peoples’ eyes by exposing the colonialist project of the Fulani militarycivilian establishment. For this group, southern Nigeria must be subdued to pave way for the establishment of Nigeria as the homeland for the Fulani in West Africa and the Sahel, as explained by Bala Mohammed, governor of Bauchi State recently. The differential policies on border closure for the north and the south; the bizarre visa-free programme which has allowed Fulani from other countries to pour into Nigeria; the absurd covert encouragement of muslim terrorists and bandits from the north by the federal government;taqiyyahimpregnated handling of the demand for restructuring by the ruling party (APC); and Buhari’s obdurate refusal to address wisely agitations in the south for selfdetermination through referendum – all this indicate that the Fulani colonisation programme of Alhaji Ahmadu Bello has gained momentum since Buhari became president in 2015. Extremely selfish and myopic politicians, traditional rulers, prominent businessmen and professionals from the south are either unaware of the serious existential dangers posed by Fulani colonialist agenda unfolding before their very eyes or are actively helping Buhari and his foot soldiers to entrench muslim Fulani domination nationwide. Sadly the Fulani have no solid history of creating an egalitarian political system that could beneficially serve as solid foundation for its hegemonist agenda in Nigeria. And despite dominating political leadership at the centre for decades using decrees andunitarist constitutions that vested enormous powers and resources on the federal government, there is no evidence that Fulani leaders in general are astute managers of human and natural resources. It is tragic that whenever a northern Fulani muslim and a southerner are available for the highest political office, the northerner with inferior educational and intellectual credentials victorious. Continues on www.vanguardngr.com Concluded emerges
CENSUS: We tried to stop Nigeria from counting ‘ghosts’ — Duruiheoma, ex-NPC Chairman •Says Jonathan, Buhari scuttled 2016 headcount •‘Nation needs N280b, 36 months preparation’ By Nnamdi Ojiego Chief Eze Duruiheoma, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, SAN, is the immediate past Chairman of the National Population Commission, NPC, the body saddled with the responsibility of organizing census, amongst others. In this interview, the former Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in Imo State, explains why the commission under him could not organize a national census. He also says it will cost about N280 billion and 36 months of preparation to conduct a qualitative census that will stand a test of time. Excerpts: Why is there no census in Nigeria 15 years after? The last census was in 2006. By convention, the next one should have been in 2016. And as a matter of fact, preparations were on to have it conducted but the unexpected happened. In 2015, there was a change of government and it would not be reasonable to expect an incoming administration to embark on such a fundamental and cost intensive thing like census without studying the ground. We had put some programmes and structures on the ground for the national exercise. The first thing we did, and in fairness to President Muhammadu Buhari, even before he assembled his cabinet, we were the first constitutional body that he granted audience. And during that audience so to say, we acquainted him with our programmes, what we were planning and needed his buy-in and, of course, he promised to do something but, again, in fairness to him, there was something the previous administration of President Goodluck Jonathan failed to do and that was a major hitch to any serious talk about census. Presidential Proclamation And that thing was President Jonathan failed to make a presidential proclamation. Yes, there’s no law prescribing that before you do a census, there must be a proclamation but it is a statement of intent. A presidential proclamation from the President is a notice to the world that Nigeria is about to embark on a very serious exercise like a census and that, from every available evidence, tells the world what we intend to do and solicit their help because no country does census on its own. More so, developing countries need some kind of assistance, technical or whatever, from outside sources. That’s only way you can get them to show interest in what you are doing. In fact, we needed to do that because, it got to a point donor agencies were begging us to get a presidential proclamation on this matter and they will come in and assist. But I didn’t know what happened, President Jonathan didn’t do it. Did you write to President Jonathan requesting he make the proclamation? That’s what I’m telling you. We started with Jonathan, in fact, the discussion with Jonathan on the matter lasted till his last day in office before he told us “sorry, I can’t do it, let the incoming administration handle that”. So, that’s what happened and when the incoming administration came in, we approached them, told them everything we had done and what we were expecting from them. N280b Budget Again, promise was made that the proclamation would come but, unfortunately, it didn’t come and there’s no official statement as to why it didn’t come. All we heard on the matter was just speculation, maybe, the cost was so prohibitive because, at a time, we presented a budget of N280b but, officially, we were asked to look at that budget again and prune it down and we succeeded in pruning it down to about N220b. Some people will ask: “Why do you conduct a census with that kind of money?” Well, one may say that the question may not be entirely wrong but at the same time, if you look at the benefit of a census, if you look at what any country can gain from properly conducted census, you will agree with me that no amount of money spent on it is a waste. We were reminded that the last census didn’t cost up to N50b or so, why is this one so? Qualitative Census However, the question is, why is this one particularly expensive? Because we were reminded that the last census didn’t cost up to N50b or so, why is this one so? Yes, the reason is simple. We wanted a qualitative census, a census that will stand a test of time, a census whose outcomes will not be a subject of unnecessary acrimony and litigation, that was what we aimed at. How did we intend to achieve it? By deploying technology. In fact, the kind of technology that will prevent one thing that was so common place in previous censuses such as double and fictitious enumerations. That is, enumerating none existing people and all SUNDAY VANGUARD, APRIL 18, 2021, PAGE 15 that. We wanted to eliminate them to the barest minimum. So, this technology, which definitely will cost money, shot up the cost of the census. So, we were then told to prune it down, of course, we looked at it critically and brought it down to about N220b. That was last communication on the matter till I left. Aside fictitious figures, what other things can make a census unacceptable? Double Enumerations The integrity of any census can be questioned on the basis of fraud, which I have mentioned. One, counting ghost people, double counting, that is, double enumerations etc. Now, census like elections, you know, elections are conducted in polling units, and that’s why they have registrations within that polling units. The same thing applies with census. There’s what we call enumeration areas, like a cluster. For example, let’s say Owerri is divided into clusters of about 500 households. Each cluster is an enumeration area. So, being able to carefully demarcate all the communities, all the towns and cities, within this defined framework, that is, if you are talking about 500 households, making sure that they are 500 households. On the day of enumeration, one enumerator or two or more will be assigned to one particular cluster, an enumeration area. That is for the effectiveness. If you don’t do that and come into Owerri, you can’t start counting people on the street because the chances are that you will count one person two or three times. You must be able to pin them down to their localities, to their communities and count them. Deploying Satellite First of all, it is done by satellite, then identify them on the ground so that there will be coordination. That again adds to the quality of what’s done. And on the day of enumeration, you don’t find two persons or more counting one area twice. An enumeration area well defined is now well known and is assigned to enumerator(s). With this, it will be difficult to have double or multiple enumeration of an area because the work is so spelt out that everybody knows what they supposed to do. Aside funding, is there any other major challenge? Yes, funding is important but having the manpower is also very important. So, it behooves the commission to train its staff. As a matter of fact, let me share this with you. The problem that commission has now is erosion of manpower. The place is in need of highly qualified technical manpower. You know, those people that took part in previous censuses have all retired. So they have a new crop of people and there’s no guaranty that this new crop of people has the requisite experience to carry on this assignment whenever it comes up. Did you do anything to solve this particular problem? Of course I did. I conducted several training workshops for the staff. And in order to give them a feel of what lies ahead, I made sure that we devoted every little kobo we got to doing limited demarcation of enumeration areas, in a full dressed rehearsal of a census. There should be nationwide demarcation but because of limited funds, what do you do? You come to Imo and do Owerri only. Owerri is just one local government out of 27. So, that’s what I called limited demarcation of enumeration areas. What are the consequences of absence of census in a country like Nigeria? The consequences are so obvious. You see, the problem we have in this country is we place emphasis on the wrong things. At times, people look at issues of census and population from the myopic angle of revenue allocation, political representation in states and national assemblies, but the benefit of census goes beyond all that. In a well conducted census, for example, here in Owerri, we should be able to identify how people live, that is, their housing, the kind of amenities they enjoy such as electricity, water supply, schools, health facilities etc., all these make part of census outcome. Basic Amenities So, a census result is a picture of a population - where they live, how they live and the number of people in an area. Often times, our emphasis is on number, forgetting these other areas. The data obtained from census will help in bringing basic amenities to an area. For example, the census figure for Owerri may show that there ought to be 2, 000 primary schools but what is currently on ground is 50. That shows there’s a shortfall in the number of primary schools in Owerri and that is what the census has revealed. An accurate census has revealed that Owerri had a shortfall of primary schools, hospitals etc to the tune of this or that. Unfortunately, people look at how much money that would be accrued to the state as a result of high number but if you look at some of the problems that associated with census, the problems are arising from the fact that people want to give up numbers for the purposes of allocation of revenue. And for how long can we continue in that way? Questionnaires Like I said earlier, in a census, there’s a list of questions, what we call questionnaires, given to respondents. If you come into this house and you want to do a census, there are questions each respondent will answer. Now, the aggregate of those questions, the outcome of those questions will constitute the census results not just the number of people counted. Census is not all about headcount, no. It goes beyond that, that’s what I’m saying. How can Nigeria conduct an acceptable headcount? By making sure that we’re honest with the exercise because everybody will benefit from it. What people are looking at now are the short term gains. Most people are not thinking about the long term which should concern everybody. The governor is thinking about how much money will be coming in as revenue. I don’t want to talk about what the money is used for but the money is frittered away, it’s wasted, leaving tomorrow’s problems unsolved. Do you see the present administration of Buhari committed to conducting a national census in the near future? Well, I don’t know what programme they have but speaking as somebody who knows how the thing works, there must be a preparation period and that preparation period cannot be less than 18 months. In other words, if this administration wants to do a census, there must be at least a period of 18 months to enable the population commission to prepare. I’m not saying 18 months is adequate but at least in the present situation in which the commission finds itself in which technical experienced manpower is acutely lacking, it should be given at least 36 months to do a good census, not just for a headcount because, if we want to do only a headcount, we’ll still run into the old problems.
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18042021 - Ex-Gov Aliyu Lied, not all northern govs worked against Jonathan in 2015

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