MSA Newslink Marketing Special

For all the latest news, see www.msagb.com
Driving tests and passes, year by year
Financial year Tests conducted Passes Pass rate
2010/11 1,605,599 744,058 46.3
2011/12 1,569,069 736,158 46.9
2012/13 1,436,481 677,255 47.1
2013/14 1,477,585 695,580 47.1
2014/15 1,532,504 718,711 46.9
2015/16 1,537,735 723,444 47.0
2016/17 1,730,936 815,168 47.1
2017/18 1,718,519 795,892 46.3
2018/19 1,664,219 761,972 45.8
2019/20 1,599,566 734,600 45.9
2020/21 436,044 217,031 49.8
the pass rate is just shy of 50 per cent,
so only 160,000 of these will be a a
pass. That’s a long way shy of the
550,000 new drivers we have lost.
A quick bit of maths suggests we’ll
clear the 550,000 backlog in three and
a half years (3.5 x 160,000 = 560,000).
That’s how the maths comes out. And
that is a best case scenario.
It’s interesting that the 300 new
examiners are coming in on two-year
contracts, as if the DVSA expects therir
work to be done by summer 2023... not
a year, as it claims currently.
And then there is this virus... Every
hurdle that Covid-19 puts in front of the
testing regime pushes back the date at
which we can expect the testing system
to be back at pre-pandemic levels. For
instance, examiners are currently not
conducting the maximum tests possible,
because of Covid-related considerations.
At present some DTCs are operating at
six tests a day. That’s 90 per cent
capacity. In stark terms, that is around
200,000 tests a year fewer than in
2018-19, and 90,000 fewer passes. In
such a case the 300 extra examiners
would do nothing to lower the waiting
times; rather, they would simply stop the
waiting lists growing any further, and we
would be left with a 17-week waiting
time as a standard in many parts of the
country, rather than an exception.
It is true that the DVSA is working on
this part of the problem, and one
assumes that every week more DTCs wil
go back to pre-Covid testing numbers.
But at the same time, every week that
DTCs AREN’T at full capacity is a week
which nudges back the day the waiting
times issue is solved.
The other factor to bear in mind is
when the 300 turn up for work. We
know that the DVSA has started the
recruitment and training process, but we
have no idea how long it will take for the
new recruits’ boots to hit the ground and
NEWSLINK SPECIAL n JUNE 2021
start making a dent in the waiting list.
Remember that we are still living with
Covid-19 restrictions. One could easily
assume that the examiner training
programme is currently less efficient and/
or slower than before, with fewer student
examiners in cars or lecture theatres, and
possibly fewer on each training cohort to
maintain social distancing.
There is also an assumption that new
examiners won’t be expected to carry a
full test load from the outset; rather, they
will spend several weeks shadowing
more experienced colleagues.
Therefore, this numbers game is full of
questions. First, when will examiners go
‘‘
The new 300 are coming in
on two-year contracts...
as if DVSA thinks the
problem will be solved by
summer 2023...
‘‘
back to full testing? Second, when will
the relief column of new ones start work
– and when will they be at 100 per cent
operational efficiency?
At the end of April, the DVSA had
434,631 practical car driving tests
booked. I’d estimate that this is about
four months’ worth and covers the
summer and into September. An
additional fact: the DVSA hopes to be
conducting 11,725 tests a day once
social distancing rules have been lifted.
That’s an increase of around 11 per cent
on 2019-20 figures – way short of the
18 per cent possible in terms of the extra
examiners recruited.
So where do all these figures leave us?
Well, I think it is fair to say that they
work against the DVSA goal of having the
test waiting time back to 6-7 weeks
within a year. There are just too many
people in the system waiting to be
tested, with too little extra capacity being
brought in to satisfy demand. I’d expect
waiting lists to stay as high as 16 weeks
for at least two years. And this situation
could be worse: we know there is a huge
pent-up demand for theory tests. Once
the rules are relaxed on social distancing
so that theory test centres can get back
to full capacity, there will be a tsunami of
learners looking for a test. It’s going to
get nasty...
But there is one hope for the DVSA,
one more regiment of cavalry it can
deploy. And somewhat ironically, it is us
ADIs.
You see, there aren’t as many of us as
there used to be, so no matter how many
people are desperate for lessons – either
those who had their training interrupted
by Covid, those who never started or
those who turned 17 recently and would
be expecting to start – there just isn’t the
ADI capacity to take them on. We are
basically looking at 27 months’ worth of
new pupils hitting ADIs’ books in the
just 12 months – and that’s an equation
that simply will not work. There are only
so many extra lessons ADIs can offer,
and it’s going to leave a lot of would-be
learners disappointed.
It’s not like there is an easy way to
increase ADI numbers either. The training
process takes around a year from initial
application to becoming a fully vetted
ADI. You can’t simply magic new ADIs
out of the air after a rudimentary training
period; there are standards to uphold,
exams to pass. Anecdotal evidence
suggests a few older ADIs who retired
recently are contemplating coming back
to the profession to earn a quick buck
while the sun is shining, but it’s not many.
And that’s the DVSA’s ace up its
sleeve; it could be that the full weight of
demand to take a driving test will be held
back by the dam of a scarcity of ADIs to
train learners quickly enough.
And just as that dam looks ready to
break, the DVSA will have its examiners
back working at full capacity and the
new recruits will be making a difference,
too.
So could we be back to normal by
summer 2022? Unlikely; a more
believable concept will be pupils fighting
for test slots for at least the next two
years, with waiting times fluctuating
wildly from DTC to DTC, some with
reasonable waiting, others not.
It could definitely get messy...
25