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14 — Vanguard, MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 19, 2022<br />
By Jide Ajani<br />
HIS<br />
Excellency,<br />
Atiku Abubakar,<br />
Vice President of<br />
Nigeria (1999-2007) and<br />
Presidential flag bearer of<br />
the Peoples Democratic<br />
Party, PDP, last Tuesday,<br />
September 13, 2022,<br />
presented his economic<br />
blueprint to the Lagos<br />
Chamber of Commerce and<br />
Industry, LCCI. His, is the<br />
first in the series. The<br />
Labour Party, LP,<br />
presidential candidate is<br />
billed for tomorrow,<br />
Tuesday, The All<br />
Progressives Congress,<br />
APC, presidential candidate,<br />
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu has<br />
pushed his presentation to a<br />
later date. In this<br />
interaction, Atiku Abubakar<br />
presents his idea of how best<br />
Nigeria can be rescued from<br />
the jaws of backwardness.<br />
Excerpts:<br />
Why it is important to<br />
engage<br />
First, in times of uncertainty<br />
such as we are experiencing<br />
today, it is the hallmark of<br />
leadership for business and<br />
political actors to pause,<br />
anticipate, before taking the<br />
next steps. Our actions today<br />
will have consequences on<br />
our tomorrow and the day<br />
after.<br />
Second, Nigeria is in<br />
transition as the APC<br />
government leaves the stage<br />
and the PDP takes over - with<br />
your support and goodwill -<br />
come May 2023. It is your<br />
duty, therefore, to take stock<br />
of the assets (if there are any)<br />
and liabilities (which will be<br />
huge!!!) of the APC<br />
administration. It is also<br />
your responsibility to<br />
interrogate those who aspire<br />
to govern the country. You<br />
must assess their<br />
understanding of the<br />
environment, their policy<br />
priorities, and their strategies<br />
for dealing with a plethora of<br />
local and national issues from<br />
the mundane to the most<br />
complex. You should never<br />
allow political slogans to take<br />
the place of development<br />
plans. Political propaganda<br />
on Facebook, Tweeter and<br />
Instagram is never a<br />
substitute for proper socioeconomic<br />
and political<br />
agenda.<br />
Thirdly and finally, the<br />
private sector is key to any<br />
government’s development<br />
agenda and must be always<br />
listened to. For those who do<br />
not realise the criticality of the<br />
private sector in Nigeria’s<br />
development, the following<br />
will whet your appetite.<br />
(1)According to National<br />
Bureau of Statistics (NBS)<br />
data, the public sector<br />
accounts for only 7.5 percent<br />
and the private sector, 78.9<br />
percent of national<br />
consumption expenditure.<br />
(2) Similarly with investment<br />
expenditure, a major source<br />
of economic growth.<br />
Government investment only<br />
around to a quarter of that of<br />
the private sector. Indeed, 85<br />
per cent of the investments in<br />
the Medium-Term National<br />
Development Plan 2021-2025<br />
are envisaged to be private<br />
sector funded. (3) According<br />
How Nigeria Dresses<br />
in Borrowed Robes,<br />
by Atiku Abubakar<br />
•Promises to return Nigeria to the path of prosperity<br />
to the Nigeria Infrastructure<br />
Master Plan, Nigeria has an<br />
infrastructure financing<br />
deficit of approximately US$3<br />
trillion over the next 30 years.<br />
This means a financing<br />
requirement<br />
of<br />
approximately US$100 billion<br />
per annum which cannot be<br />
met by the public sector.<br />
Nigeria’s annual budget is<br />
only USD30 billion.<br />
For these and many other<br />
reasons, a warm handshake<br />
with the private sector is<br />
inevitable for any economic<br />
policy or programme to<br />
succeed. Indeed, private<br />
sector leadership in driving<br />
growth is the first of the three<br />
key principles of my<br />
economic growth and<br />
development agenda, as<br />
encapsulated in My<br />
Covenant with Nigerians.<br />
What is your economic<br />
policy that can lift Nigeria up<br />
from the abyss?<br />
Economic prosperity is an<br />
integral part of my 5-point<br />
agenda, soon to be officially<br />
unveiled, that seeks to restore<br />
Nigeria’s UNITY, strengthen<br />
NATIONAL SECURITY,<br />
foster ECONOMIC<br />
PROSPERITY, improve<br />
EDUCATION DELIVERY<br />
AND RE-STRUCTURE the<br />
polity. Indeed, economic<br />
prosperity is the thread that<br />
runs through the other<br />
critical elements of the<br />
agenda.<br />
So, where is the Nigerian<br />
economy today?<br />
I will focus on five key<br />
deficiencies of the economy<br />
which all turn out to be selfinflicted.<br />
Nigeria’s GDP grew at an<br />
average rate of less than 1per<br />
cent since the APC assumed<br />
power in 2015. Compare this<br />
with an average growth of 6.5<br />
per cent in the seven years<br />
earlier. Per capita income, a<br />
measure of citizens’ wellbeing,<br />
has progressively fallen<br />
since 2015 because of<br />
declining output and a fastgrowing<br />
population.<br />
Nigerians are worse-off today<br />
than they were in 2015. The<br />
current rate of growth of about<br />
3.5 per cent masks the real<br />
challenges facing the<br />
economy. The economy<br />
remains very fragile as the key<br />
sectors are either growing<br />
slowly (as with agriculture) or<br />
contracting (as with oil and<br />
gas). The oil and gas sector,<br />
which is the economy’s<br />
lifeline, has suffered decline in<br />
19 out of 30 quarters since<br />
2014.<br />
For many economic sectors<br />
and for the ordinary citizens it<br />
still feels as if we are in a<br />
recession. More than 23<br />
million people are out of jobs.<br />
In just 5 years between 2015<br />
and 2020, the number of fully<br />
employed people dropped by<br />
54per cent, from 68 million to<br />
31 million people. The number<br />
of unemployed people is more<br />
than the population of Lagos<br />
state or the inhabitants of the<br />
Federal Capital Territory<br />
(FCT), Abia, Bayelsa, Cross<br />
River, Ebonyi, Kwara and<br />
Nasarawa states combined!<br />
What is even more<br />
worrisome is that the majority<br />
of the unemployed are young<br />
men and women, who lack not<br />
only the means to survive but<br />
any hope for the future. The<br />
number of unemployed youths<br />
increased by 9 million from 4<br />
million in 2015 to 13 million in<br />
2020.<br />
High youth unemployment<br />
For the first time in<br />
Nigeria’s history,<br />
the FGN paid more<br />
in debt service than<br />
it earned! By<br />
spending more than<br />
100per cent of its<br />
revenue for debt<br />
service, Nigeria is<br />
breaching one of the<br />
applicable debtsustainability<br />
threshold<br />
and limited employment<br />
opportunities pose serious<br />
economic and security<br />
challenges. Ensuring there<br />
are enough jobs for Nigeria’s<br />
youth is therefore already an<br />
urgent concern.<br />
Are more Nigerians poorer<br />
and more miserable today or<br />
rischer than in 2015?<br />
Job losses, declining<br />
purchasing power of per<br />
capita income and lack of<br />
citizens’ access to basic<br />
amenities have pushed more<br />
than 90 million people below<br />
the poverty line and created<br />
more misery for the poor in<br />
towns and villages. This year,<br />
around 12 percent of the<br />
world population in extreme<br />
poverty, with the poverty<br />
threshold at 1.90 U.S. dollars<br />
a day, live in Nigeria. Basic<br />
commodities are now beyond<br />
the reach of the average<br />
Nigerian. A loaf of bread costs<br />
100per cent more today than<br />
it did in 2020. Farmers now<br />
pay more than 200per cent for<br />
a bag of fertilizer -if they see<br />
it-than they did in 2020.<br />
What is the meaning of<br />
Nigeria is being dressed in<br />
borrowed robes!<br />
Nigeria under the APC-led<br />
government has consistently<br />
run-on budget deficits since<br />
it came to power in 2015.<br />
These budget deficits are<br />
often above the 3per cent<br />
threshold permissible under<br />
the Fiscal Responsibility Law.<br />
Ironically, this has increased<br />
the government’s appetite for<br />
more debts- now more than<br />
N50 trillion (if you add<br />
AMCON debts and Ways and<br />
Means). For the first time in<br />
Nigeria’s history, the FGN<br />
paid more in debt service<br />
than it earned! By spending<br />
more than 100per cent of its<br />
revenue for debt service,<br />
Nigeria is breaching one of<br />
the applicable debtsustainability<br />
thresholds. The<br />
APC-led government is<br />
dressing Nigeria in borrowed<br />
robes! This action puts a big<br />
question mark on the capacity<br />
of the government to manage<br />
its rising debt profile without<br />
endangering macroeconomic<br />
stability. Indeed, we are<br />
concerned that this action is<br />
already exposing Nigeria to<br />
financial stability issues as we<br />
slip from a medium risk of debt<br />
distress to high risk of debt<br />
distress.<br />
Capital flight<br />
Policy incoherence and flipflops<br />
combined with internal<br />
insecurity continue to pose a<br />
significant risk to investment<br />
and thus output growth. They<br />
leave potential investors<br />
confused and weary of the<br />
Nigerian economy. Foreign<br />
Direct Investment (FDI) has<br />
progressively declined since<br />
2019. It fell sharply from<br />
US$8.5 billion in Q1 2019 to<br />
US$5.8 billion in Q1 2020 and<br />
US$1.9 billion in Q1 2021.<br />
We have lost our esteemed<br />
position as Africa’s preferred<br />
investment destination to less<br />
endowed nations!<br />
Why have these economic<br />
challenges persisted and<br />
progressively worsened?<br />
It has become fashionable<br />
for the APC-led government<br />
to blame the opposition and<br />
external factors for Nigeria’s<br />
economic woes. The evidence,<br />
however, is overwhelming<br />
that the country’s underperformance<br />
is largely<br />
attributable to leadership<br />
failures in the management of<br />
the state. The failure of<br />
leadership by the APC-led<br />
government is staring every<br />
Nigerian in the face as the<br />
country’s economic, social,<br />
political and security<br />
challenges persist and<br />
assume frightening<br />
dimensions.<br />
An unprepared leadership<br />
fails to anticipate impending<br />
crises and is always slow to<br />
react. The first policy<br />
document designed by this<br />
government – the Economic<br />
Recovery and Growth Plan<br />
(ERGP) in 2017- was a<br />
reaction to the economic crises<br />
of 2016. Similarly, the<br />
Economic Sustainability Plan<br />
(ESP) was a reaction to the<br />
COVID19-induced economic<br />
crises. Even these reactions<br />
were slow to come and<br />
economic recovery has<br />
perhaps been premised more<br />
on luck, rather than planned<br />
economic reforms.<br />
Your vision to get the<br />
economy on its feet and<br />
create prosperity?<br />
The economic growth and<br />
development agenda: Our<br />
economic growth and<br />
development agenda seeks<br />
primarily to stimulate the<br />
growth of the economy. It<br />
envisions an economy that is<br />
modern, dynamic, and<br />
competitive, capable of taking<br />
its rightful place among the<br />
top 20 economies of the world.<br />
Nigeria has the potential to<br />
double its GDP by 2030 and<br />
achieve a per capita income<br />
of approximately US$5,000.<br />
We anticipate growth from our<br />
policies that seek to revitalize<br />
Continues on page 15