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10 For news updates go to www.universecatholicweekly.co.uk OPINION Editorial Contact: Andy Drozdziak – News@universecatholicweekly.co.uk Money market’s response to Kwasi Budget hints at a winter of turmoil Jean-Philippe Serbera tÜáäÉ=ãçëí=éÉçéäÉ=áå=íÜÉ=rh=ïÉêÉ ëíáää=áå=ÄÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ=É~êäó=Üçìêë=çÑ jçåÇ~ó=ãçêåáåÖI=íÜÉ=éçìåÇ=ÇáîÉÇK fí=ÑÉää=çîÉê=QB=ÇìêáåÖ=^ëá~=íê~ÇáåÖ=íç êÉ~ÅÜ=áíë=äçïÉëí=ÉîÉê=äÉîÉä=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ Ççää~ê=çÑ=rpANKMPRI=ïÜáäÉ=~äëç=ÜáííáåÖ NKMTV=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=ÉìêçK= qÜáë=ï~ë=~å=ÉñÅÉéíáçå~ä=Ñ~ääI=~åÇ ÅçåíáåìÉë=áíë=PB=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ rp=Ççää~ê=çå=cêáÇ~ó=áå=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç íÜÉ=ÜÉÑíó=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=~åÇ=í~ñJÅìííáåÖ áå=`Ü~åÅÉääçê=hï~ëá=hï~êíÉåÖÛë ãáåáJÄìÇÖÉíK få=é~ê~ääÉäI=íê~ÇÉêë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå ÇìãéáåÖ=_êáíáëÜ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÄçåÇëI ïÜáÅÜ=áë=ÇêáîáåÖ=ìé=äçåÖJíÉêã áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=çê=óáÉäÇëK=qÜÉ=óáÉäÇ=çå íÉåJóÉ~ê=ÄçåÇëI=ïÜáÅÜ=ÜÉ~îáäó áåÑäìÉåÅÉë=ãçêíÖ~ÖÉ=ê~íÉë=~åÇ=çíÜÉê Ä~åâ=äÉåÇáåÖI=áë=åçï=~ÄçîÉ=QB=Ñçê íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=íáãÉ=ëáåÅÉ=áíë=ÜáÖÜë=ÑçääçïáåÖ íÜÉ=OMMTJMV=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅêáëáëK qÜÉ=éçìåÇ=êÉÄçìåÇÉÇ=Ä~Åâ=~ÄçîÉ rpANKMU=áå=íÜÉ=Üçìêë=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ bìêçéÉ~å=ã~êâÉíë=çéÉåÉÇI=ïÜáäÉ íÉåJóÉ~ê=ÄçåÇ=óáÉäÇë=Ü~îÉ=~äëç=É~ëÉÇ ~=äáííäÉK=fí=áë=éçëëáÄäÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=éçìåÇ Åê~ëÜ=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=^ëá~=ëÉëëáçå=ï~ë çîÉêJÉñíÉåÇÉÇ=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=íê~ÇáåÖ îçäìãÉë=áå=íÜÉ=_êáíáëÜ=ÅìêêÉåÅó=~êÉ äçïÉêI=ïÜáÅÜ=ã~âÉë=áí=É~ëáÉê=Ñçê ëã~ääÉê=~ãçìåíë=çÑ=ãçåÉó=íç=ã~âÉ ~=ÄáÖÖÉê=áãé~Åí=çå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíK=fí=áë åçí=ìåÅçããçå=Ñçê=äçïë=íç=ÄÉ=ã~ÇÉ áå=É~êäó=^ëá~=íê~ÇáåÖI=~ë=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=íÜÉ Å~ëÉ=áå=éêÉîáçìë=ÅìêêÉåÅó=Åê~ëÜÉëK lå=íÜÉ=çíÜÉê=Ü~åÇI=ã~åó=~å~äóëíë íÜáåâ=íÜÉ=éçìåÇ=êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ=é~êáíó ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=rp=Ççää~ê=áë=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó äáâÉäóK=pç=ïÜÉêÉ=áë=~ää=íÜáë=ÜÉ~ÇáåÖ ~åÇ=ïÜ~í=ïáää=íÜÉ=ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉë=ÄÉ\ qÜÉ=éçìåÇ=Ü~ë=~äêÉ~Çó=ÄÉÉå ïÉ~âÉåáåÖ=Ñçê=çîÉê=~=óÉ~êK=qÜáë=áë é~êíäó=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=íÜÉ=rp=Ççää~ê=Ü~ë Graph 1: Pound v US dollar since mini-budget Graph 2 UK Ten-year bond yields 2007-22 Graph 3 Pound v US dollar 1972-2022 ÄÉÉå=ÖÉííáåÖ=ëíêçåÖÉê=~ë=íÜÉ=rp cÉÇÉê~ä=oÉëÉêîÉ=Ü~ë=ê~áëÉÇ=áåíÉêÉëí ê~íÉë=~åÇ=êÉÇìÅÉÇ=íÜÉ=ëìééäó=çÑ Ççää~êë=íç=íêó=~åÇ=ÖÉí=áåÑä~íáçå=ìåÇÉê 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Åçêéçê~íáçå=í~ñ=ÜáâÉ=Ó=~Ö~áå ìåÇÉêãáåáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=éä~åK qÜÉ=ÄáÖÖÉê=èìÉëíáçå=áë=ïÜ~í Ü~ééÉåë=íç=rp=áåÑä~íáçåK=fÑ=áí=ïÉêÉ=íç Ñ~ää=íÜ~åâë=íç=~=Çêçé=áå=íÜÉ=Åçëí=çÑ ÉåÉêÖó=áãéçêíë=~åÇ=~å=áãéêçîÉÇ ÖäçÄ~ä=ëìééäó=ÅÜ~áåI=íÜÉ=cÉÇÉê~ä oÉëÉêîÉ=ã~ó=éáîçí=çå=ãçåÉí~êó éçäáÅóK=qÜáë=ïçìäÇ=Éåí~áä=~=é~ìëÉ=çå êÉÅÉåí=áåíÉêÉëíJê~íÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=çê ÉîÉå=íÜÉ=ëí~êí=çÑ=~=êÉîÉêë~äI=ïÜáÅÜ ïçìäÇ=í~âÉ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çÑÑ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë ëìÅÜ=~ë=íÜÉ=éçìåÇ=~åÇ=ÜÉäé=êÉëÅìÉ íÜÉ=rh=ÉÅçåçãóK låäó=íÜÉå=ïçìäÇ=íÜÉ=ëìééäóJëáÇÉ ãÉ~ëìêÉë=áå=íÜÉ=ãáåáJÄìÇÖÉí=ÖÉ~êÉÇ íçï~êÇë=ÜÉäéáåÖ=ÄìëáåÉëëÉë=ïáíÜ äçïÉê=Åçêéçê~íáçå=í~ñI=ëáãéäÉê éä~ååáåÖ=~åÇ=äçïJí~ñ=áåîÉëíãÉåí òçåÉë=ÄÉ~ê=ÑêìáíK=bîÉå=íÜÉåI=íÜÉ ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=íç=ÜçéÉ íÜ~í=ÅçåëìãÉê=~åÇ=ÄìëáåÉëë ëÉåíáãÉåí=Ü~Ç=åçí=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=íçç ãìÅÜ=áå=íÜÉ=ãÉ~åíáãÉK= qÜ~í=~ää=~ãçìåíë=íç=~å Éñíê~çêÇáå~êáäó=êáëâó=Ö~ãÄäÉ=Ó=áÑ=áí ÇçÉëåÛí=é~ó=çÑÑI=ÉñéÉÅí=ãçêÉ=íêçìÄäÉ ~ÜÉ~ÇK Jean-Philippe Serbera is a senior lecturer in banking and finance at Sheffield Hallam University The mini-Budget: Key points New chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng has revealed a bold plan which he says will revitalise the slow UK economy and boost productivity. The central part of Kwarteng’s mini budget involves cutting taxes in the hope of providing greater incentives for individuals and businesses to work harder and invest more, in what are the biggest net tax cuts from a chancellor since the early 1970s. • The increase in national insurance is being cancelled • The highest rate of income tax and the cap on bankers’ bonuses abolished • Basic rate of income tax cut from 20% to 19% in April. • Stamp duty on house purchases is also being cut, especially for first-time buyers. • The hike in corporation tax scheduled for April will not now go ahead Added together, these measures will cost £45 billion per year. In addition, the government is spending a huge amount to keep energy bills down – an estimated £60 billion per year for the next two years, together with circa £30 billion to help businesses in the next six months. The actual cost will depend on future gas prices. Will it work? The evidence is inconclusive as to whether lower tax rates incentivise individuals to work harder and unleash their entrepreneurial spirit. In the UK, many may use the extra cash to enjoy more leisure time, especially those over 50. Meanwhile, the fact that poorer people are set to gain relatively little from the tax cuts may explain why the government is planning to sanction those who work fewer than 15 hours a week and are not actively seeking jobs. Most likely, the incentives for business investment will be the key part, driving growth, together with previously announced plans to raise skills. Business investment in the UK has been historically much lower than that of its main competitors. However, successive cuts to corporation tax have made little difference. With Kwarteng’s business incentives also including new low-tax investment zones and planning reform, it remains to be seen whether this will make much difference. With a looming recession, high inflation, the energy crisis, supply shortages and difficulties in recruiting skilled workers, it is hard to envisage a dramatic shift in the short term. The government has suggested that its plan could bring in an extra £47 billion in tax revenues, but in the short term, a big squeeze on public spending is on the cards. Departmental budgets in real terms could lose as much as £18 billion. The Treasury says that “keeping spending under control” is a key part of its commitment to fiscal responsibility. But the planned £90 billion in energy subsidies and £45 billion in tax cuts will deliver an enormous stimulus to the economy. To curb the extra inflationary pressures that this will exert, the government will be counting on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates sharply – affecting household incomes badly as mortgages rise. Equally unsettling is the fact that these measures will raise national debt from £100 billion to nearly £200 billion next year, or almost 10% of GDP. The government argues that over five years, if its strategy boosts growth, it would add billions of pounds to tax revenues to service the debt; but short-term economic problems could derail the plan and threaten the chances of an election victory – most likely due to be contested in 2024.
The Universe Catholic Weekly | Friday, 30th September 2022 Advertising: Andrea Black – advertising@universecatholicweekly.co.uk | Circulation sales: Michelle Jones – sales@universecatholicweekly.co.uk 11 NEWS Prison charity lands major MoJ contract to support families Andy Drozdziak `~íÜçäáÅ=éêáëçå=ÅÜ~êáíó=m~Åí=Ü~ë=ïçå ~=ã~àçê=Åçåíê~Åí=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=jáåáëíêó=çÑ gìëíáÅÉ= íç= éêçîáÇÉ= Ñ~ãáäó= ëÉêîáÅÉë= áå çîÉê=SM=éêáëçåë=áå=~=ÖêçìåÇÄêÉ~âáåÖ ãçîÉK= cçääçïáåÖ=~=ëìÅÅÉëëÑìä=ÅçãéÉíáíáîÉ íÉåÇÉêáåÖ=éêçÅÉëëI=íÜÉ=jáåáëíêó=çÑ=gìëJ íáÅÉ=Ü~ë=~ï~êÇÉÇ=m~Åí=EíÜÉ=mêáëçå=^ÇJ îáÅÉ=~åÇ=`~êÉ=qêìëíF=íÜÉ=Åçåíê~Åíë=íç éêçîáÇÉ=Ñ~ãáäó=ëÉêîáÅÉë=áå=SO=éêáëçåë ~Åêçëë=båÖä~åÇ=~åÇ=t~äÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ åÉï=Åçåíê~Åíë=áå=íÜÉ=tÉëí=jáÇä~åÇëI hÉåíI= pìëëÉñ= ~åÇ= íÜÉ= pçìíÜ=tÉëí= çÑ båÖä~åÇK= m~Åí=áë=~=å~íáçå~ä=`~íÜçäáÅ=ÅÜ~êáíó ïÜáÅÜ= ëÉÉâë= íç= ëìééçêí= éêáëçåÉêëI éÉçéäÉ= ïáíÜ= ÅçåîáÅíáçåëI= ~åÇ= íÜÉáê ÅÜáäÇêÉå=~åÇ=Ñ~ãáäáÉë=~í=É~ÅÜ=ëí~ÖÉ=çÑ íÜÉ=Åêáãáå~ä=àìëíáÅÉ=éêçÅÉëëW=áå=ÅçìêíI áå=éêáëçåI=çå=êÉäÉ~ëÉI=~åÇ=áå=íÜÉ=ÅçãJ ãìåáíóK qÜÉ= 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m~ÅíÛë=åÉï=Ñ~ãáäó=ëÉêîáÅÉë=Åçåíê~Åíë ïáää=êìå=Ñçê=~=ãáåáãìã=çÑ=ÑáîÉ=óÉ~êë ~åÇ= ìé= íç= ~= ã~ñáãìã= çÑ= ëÉîÉåK ejmmp=Ü~ë=~äëç=~ï~êÇÉÇ=m~Åí=ÑìåÇë íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=éêçîáÇÉ=íÜÉ=mêáëçåÉêëÛ c~ãáäáÉë=eÉäéäáåÉ=Ñçê=~=ÑìêíÜÉê=íÜêÉÉ óÉ~êëK= lîÉê= íÜÉ= é~ëí= NO= ãçåíÜëI= íÜÉ íÉ~ã=Ü~ë=ëìééçêíÉÇ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=PSIMMM Å~ääÉêëK A prisoner reunites with his family on release. Photo: Andy Aitchison jê= hÉÉåJaçïåë= ÜáÖÜäáÖÜíÉÇ= íÜÉ ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=Úáãéçêí~åíÛ=ëÉêîJ áÅÉëK “tÉ= âåçï= íÜ~í= éÉçéäÉ= áå= éêáëçå ïÜç= ã~áåí~áå= êÉÖìä~ê= Åçåí~Åí= ïáíÜ Ñ~ãáäó=çê=äçîÉÇ=çåÉë=~êÉ=QMB=äÉëë=äáâÉäó íç=êÉJçÑÑÉåÇ=çå=êÉäÉ~ëÉK=qÜÉëÉ=ëÉêîáÅÉë ~êÉ=íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ãçëí=áãéçêJ í~åí=ï~óë=áå=ïÜáÅÜ=ïÉ=Å~å=ÜÉäé=íç=êÉJ ÇìÅÉ=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=êÉJçÑÑÉåÇáåÖ=~åÇ=ÄìáäÇ ë~ÑÉê=ÅçããìåáíáÉëIÒ=ÜÉ=ë~áÇK More information can be found at www.prisonadvice.org.uk. ‘‘ mÉçéäÉ=áå=éêáëçå=ïÜç ã~áåí~áå=êÉÖìä~ê=Åçåí~Åí ïáíÜ=Ñ~ãáäó=çê=äçîÉÇ=çåÉë ~êÉ=QM=éÉê=ÅÉåí=äÉëë=äáâÉäó íç=êÉJçÑÑÉåÇ=çå=êÉäÉ~ëÉK=
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