Green Economy Journal Issue 56

MOBILITY
MOBILITY
ELECTRIC CARS on the
It has been another momentous year for electric vehicle markets and technologies, with
major policy developments, sales growth, and landmark models set to enter the sector.
BY IDTechEx
2023 HIGHWAY
further cements battery-EVs as the lynchpin of future road transport
markets. The ban represents approximately nine-million to 10-million
electric car sales annually by 2035 using current vehicle sales data.
Given EU countries sold around 1.8-million electric cars in 2021, the
targets, which are over a decade away, look achievable.
On the other side of the pond, the US market gained momentum
with the modernisation of its federal tax credit for EVs, which is part
of the broader Inflation Reduction Act. The incentive is designed to
build a more localised supply chain. This is good for the long term, but
it may mean it will be several years before the policy has an impact
on market growth.
The emerging passenger truck market is the key US trend to watch
for in 2023. Ford’s electric F150 was launched with overwhelming
success, GM’s similarly priced Silverado is poised to enter the market
in 2023, and GM’s luxury Hummer EV is sold out for two years. While
Tesla currently has around 50% of the US EV car market, its share has
declined slightly in recent years. As Tesla prioritises battery supply for
the Model 3 and Model Y, IDTechEx expects incumbents’ passenger
truck models to become significant drivers for US sales.
Taking a step back, it is easy to dismiss the hurdles the supply chain
faces when looking at exponential sales data. While IDTechEx’s report
expects that the capacity of current and future giga factories will be
enough to support 36-million battery-electric cars per year by 2030,
looking further upstream, particularly at lithium, there is uncertainty.
What is becoming clear is the downsizing of battery capacities per
vehicle while maintaining vehicle ranges will be key.
THE NEW EV BATTERY
Improving drive cycle efficiency means less of the precious energy
stored in the battery is wasted when accelerating the vehicle, leading
As the largest EV sector, China
leads the race with over 1.5-million
public charging points.
to improved range from the same battery capacity (or the same range
with reduced battery capacity). Upcoming electric motors and power
electronics technologies are key avenues for this.
The emerging trend for 800V platforms and above is in full swing,
with GM, Hyundai and VW undergoing a transition alongside
start-ups such as Lucid Motors. 800V platforms improve efficiency
by reducing joule losses and allowing high-voltage cabling to be
downsized, saving weight. New technologies and materials are
enabling the transition, namely silicon carbide MOSFETs using
silver-sintered, die-attach materials and new cooling methods.
There are several key performance metrics for electric motors,
but again, a critical area is efficiency. Due to the many different
considerations in motor design, the EV market has adopted several
different solutions, including permanent magnets, induction and
wound-rotor motors. Key emerging motor technologies are axial
flux and in-wheel motors.
Axial flux motors use more magnetic material, making them efficient
and more power-dense, improving drive-cycle efficiencies via weight
reduction. Similarly, while in-wheel motors require more motors per
vehicle (one for each wheel), this can allow for greater optimisation.
This again leads to improved drive cycle efficiency. Markets today
are small, but IDTechEx expects increases in demand over the next
10 years, with first applications in high-performance vehicles, shuttle
buses and certain hybrid applications.
China has thrown down the gauntlet once again in the automotive
sector, with record electric vehicle (EV) sales approaching
five-million a year. The dual-credit system – two types of credit
that must be accumulated to avoid penalties – is a primary driver.
Although impressive, the results are not perfect. Much of this has
been achieved with sales of small and micro cars, an artificial result
that reduces pressure for supply chains but is ultimately not the
consumer preference. A shift towards affordable versions of larger
vehicles will soon be needed as policy drivers fully phase out in the
coming years – a more difficult task.
China’s success is leading to cross-pollination with other parts of the
world, which could be key for mainstream EV adoption. Indeed, BYD
and NIO (Chinese EV makers) have announced plans to sell EV models
in Europe soon. The biggest hurdle to this may be political. The EU has
a history of banning low-cost (or undercutting) EV imports from China,
for example, a tariff of up to 83% was applied to e-bikes at the start of
the craze a few years ago.
Within Europe, in June 2022, the EU confirmed a landmark internal
combustion engine (ICE) ban for 2035, later saying that e-fuels will
be banned for cars and light commercial vehicles (vans). The ruling
IDTechEx
Market share of battery, hybrid and fuel cell cars against overall e-transport sectors (based on revenues).
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