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26 year (with the Dardenelles transit only permitted in daylight hours) these add at least another two days to voyage times. With an ever-increasing rise in traffic, there are real jams, which can double the theoretical transit time. This simple measure naturally affects tonnage availability and helps push rates higher. As already mentioned, West Africa is in the process of losing its position as a driving force, even though it still represents an important share of the global traffic, especially towards the U.S.. On this route the average rate experienced this year was around WS 78,5 compared to an average in 2001 close to WS 110. During the first nine months of the year, with the exception of a slight hike in June, returns remained below $15,000 per day. Proof of the predominant influence of economic events on rates, this size of tankers has remained globally balanced in terms of numbers for many years. Thus since 1998, 106 new units (15,9 million dwt) have been delivered while 107 (14,7 million dwt) have been scrapped. 2002 however differed slightly from preceding years with 25 units delivered as compared to only 15 ships withdrawn from the fleet. Another important phenomena in relation to previous years was the conversion of units destined to the offshore market being more favourable to VLCC than to Suezmax. Consequently only 2 old Suezmax were converted in 2002 as compared to half a dozen VLCCs. US$/day 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Shipping and Shipbuilding Markets <strong>2003</strong> 0 Jan 00 Feb 00 Mar 00 May 00 June 00 July 00 Sep 00 Oct 00 Dec 00 Jan 01 Aframax tanker freight rates Average earnings Feb 01 Apr 01 May 01 June 01 Aframax Freight rates for this size of tankers have not deviated from the overall tendency with a market in steady decline since the beginning of 2001, up until the notorious jump during the last quarter of 2002. Nonetheless in contrast to the larger sizes, the lowest levels registered this year did not reach the abyss of 1999 when returns were frequently below $10,000 per day. This ability to absorb the impact of the economic crisis is largely explained by the great flexibility that this category of ships possess. Within the European and American zones, traffic is extremely steady, but it only requires a minor movement in the supply / demand equation to produce a sizeable change in rates. Thus the North Sea and Caribbean markets were true to form with wild rate variations, notably in the North Sea with the traditional bunching of liftings at the end of the month. However generally speaking, levels remained fairly mediocre form January to September: WS 103 for inter North Sea voyages, WS 109 for cross Med and WS 123 for Caribs / U.S.. The last three months of the year, but especially November and December, allowed owners to rapidly get out of this depressed state and to obtain steadily improving levels. In Europe returns on modern units often surpassed $40,000 per day. The Caribbean market was comparatively less favourable. Aug 01 Sep 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Jan 02 80,000 t UK/Continent - TCE 80,000 t East Med/West Med - TCE Mar 02 Apr 02 June 02 July 02 Aug 02 Oct 02 Nov 02 Dec 02
The crisis that shook Venezuela in December produced an abrupt reduction in demand and owners quickly had to accept lower rates. As we have seen earlier in our analysis of the Suezmax size, the Mediterranean market was also strongly affected and perturbed by the restrictive Turkish measures in respect of the Black Sea traffic. The difficulties encountered during the transit of the Dardenelles and the Bosphorus have and will increasingly affect the tonnage availability. Short and long term prospects. At the time of writing, the impact of the ‘Prestige’ shipwreck is naturally very much in our minds. Politicians as well as others, both in Europe and in the rest of the world, affected by the dramatic consequences of such a pollution are trying to adopt drastic and rapid measures. Preventing old single-hulled tankers from carrying fuel oil or even crude is purely a political decision aimed to satisfy public opinion. Although it is common sense, it does nothing to solve the maritime risk. Whilst it reduces it, nothing stops the possibility of seeing a 12 years old double-hulled tanker having a similar accident, having passed through several hands and being poorly or badly maintained. For several years the Majors have already put in place a system of strict vetting and only certain less scrupulous charterers are satisfied with vessels that fail this test. % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 End 1998 Crude oil tankers fleet age A proper reinforcement of port controls and of objective criteria adopted by both exporters as well as importers, will contribute effectively and efficiently towards the elimination of the few stray sheep which causes a risk to the whole fleet and destroys its public image. In fact it is not fair to give the impression that the seas are infested with “floating rust-buckets”, and the incident of the ‘Prestige’ is more the exception that proves the rule, at least as far as European waters are concerned. Considerable efforts have been made by owners over recent years and the rejuvenation of the world tanker fleet is today a reality. As the graphs show, the VLCC and the Suezmax categories have been considerably renewed over the past four years, as today two-thirds of these fleets are less than 10 years old. Compared to the end of 1998, the ratio was closer to half. Only the Aframax size, despite increasing by some 20 new units in the last four years, remains relatively unchanged in its age structure, with a proportion of nearly 50 % of vessels over 10 years old. Nonetheless it should also be stated that most of these older ships are to be found East of Suez. As to the question of freight rates over the short and medium term, once the excitement is over and the traditional period of winter activity passed, can one expect to see the strong recovery at the end of the year being maintained? VLCC Suezmax Aframax VLCC Suezmax Aframax End 2002 10 years and under Over 10 years The Tanker Market in 2002 27
Page 1 and 2: SHIPPING AND SHIPBUILDING MARKETS 2
Page 3 and 4: Once again we are outraged and help
Page 5 and 6: THE SHIPBUILDING MARKET IN 2002 The
Page 7 and 8: tives set at the beginning of the y
Page 9 and 10: Nb of vessels 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 T
Page 11 and 12: % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Page 13 and 14: Several European shipyards have gon
Page 15 and 16: % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Page 17 and 18: Prospects The 90’s were character
Page 19 and 20: THE CRUISE MARKET IN 2002 After the
Page 21 and 22: in the more remunerative sectors of
Page 23 and 24: ◆ For Festival Cruises, the ‘Eu
Page 25 and 26: THE TANKER MARKET IN 2002 We tried
Page 27: US$/day 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000
Page 31 and 32: Minds more competent than ours will
Page 33 and 34: the ‘Afrapearl’, 86,417 dwt, bu
Page 35 and 36: US$/day 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000
Page 37 and 38: The product tankers second-hand mar
Page 39 and 40: THE OFFSHORE AND SPECIALISED SHIPS
Page 41 and 42: Utilisation % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40
Page 43 and 44: Average reported day rates in £/da
Page 45 and 46: to become one of major importance i
Page 47 and 48: THE CHEMICAL CARRIER MARKET IN 2002
Page 49 and 50: number 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Page 51 and 52: THE LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GAS SHIPPIN
Page 53 and 54: ◆ The development of voyages conc
Page 55 and 56: Midsize carriers 22,000 to 43,000 c
Page 57 and 58: number 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Page 59 and 60: THE LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS SHIPPING
Page 61 and 62: Number of vessels 60 50 40 30 20 10
Page 63 and 64: approvals for deep-water oil projec
Page 65 and 66: LNG SHIPPING SOLUTIONS LNG Shipping
Page 67 and 68: THE DRY BULK MARKET IN 2002 The dry
Page 69 and 70: up with a modest rise of 0,4 %. The
Page 71 and 72: $/day 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 1
Page 73 and 74: We have noted some 36 sales for fur
Page 75 and 76: Market Cargoes Advancing with shipp
Page 77 and 78: THE CONTAINERSHIP MARKET IN 2002 Th
Page 79 and 80:
Another factor which may have a str
Page 81 and 82:
$/day (Source: BRS-Alphaliner) 30,0
Page 83 and 84:
Maersk-SL + Safmarine Mediterranean
Page 85 and 86:
Ships of 2,000 to 3,000 teu One can
Page 87 and 88:
THE RO-RO MARKET IN 2002 Is the ro-
Page 89 and 90:
No ships 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ro-ro
Page 91 and 92:
THE REEFERSHIP MARKET IN 2002 Light
Page 93 and 94:
◆ During the autumn of 2002, P&O-
Page 95 and 96:
Million cu ft 400 390 380 370 360 3
Page 97 and 98:
THE MARINE INSURANCE MARKETS IN 200
Page 99 and 100:
Secondly, the drop in Stock Exchang
Page 101 and 102:
FRENCH SHIPYARDS DELIVERIES AND ORD
Page 103 and 104:
Chantiers Piriou Ships delivered in
Page 105 and 106:
Zhejiang (China) 093 Artha 2002 Pet
Page 108:
Shipbrokers since 1856 12-14, Rond-
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