RA BRS 2003 GB >pdf

IMF Forecast (in GNP %)
4
Shipping and Shipbuilding Markets 2003
4. The sinking of the ‘Prestige’, a 26 years old
single-hulled tanker which was carrying 77,000
tons of heavy fuel oil, created a new dramatic oil
spill, the third in less than four years in European
waters, after those of the ‘Erika’ (December 1999)
and the ‘Baltic Carrier’ (April 2001). Following the
initial declarations of European politicians calling
for a tightening of regulation, numerous owners
rush at shipyards to negotiate early deliveries.
These collective requests induce price increases in
the order of 5 to 10 % compared to the lowest
levels of the year.
◆ ◆ ◆
With a world GNP increase around 2.8 %, the year
2002 remained a year of little economic growth. It
is nonetheless slightly better than 2001, which had
a GNP rise of 2.2 %, one of the lowest in the last
ten years.
World USA Japan E.U Korea China
2001 2.2 0.3 -0.3 1.6 3.0 7.3
2002 2.8 2.2 -0.5 1.1 3.2 7.5
2003 3.7 2.6 1.1 2.3 5.9 7.2
IMF - September 2002
World trade growth has expanded in 2002 by
nearly 3 % whereas in 2001 it had been flat.
Freight rates in the three principal mainstays of the
shipping market, oil, dry bulk, and containers,
which had dropped considerably in 2001, stabilise
Index 1,000 = Jan. 98
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Jan 98
Apr 98
Jul 98
Oct 98
Jan 99
Apr 99
Jul 99
Freight rates evolution since 1998
Containership 1,700 teu
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
VLCC 250,000 t MEG/Japan
Oct 99
Jan 00
Apr 00
%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
at the start of the summer and go back up as from
September 2002.
Nonetheless, the economic climate, weak freight
rates, a hazy visibility and international tensions
have a combined effect and help deter owners
from the shipbuilding market during the first half
of the year up until the autumn.
Low shipbuilding prices no longer seem to be sufficient
to incite potential buyers. Shipyards, whose
orderbooks go through up until 2004 or even
beyond, are not convinced either they should
lower their prices in order to stimulate this new
demand, which would allow them to balance their
orderbooks and to reach their commercial objec-
Jul 00
Oct 00
Jan 01
2001
Apr 01
General trends
Jul 01
Oct 01
Jan 02
2002
Apr 02
World GDP
World trade
Jul 02
Oct 02
2003