Green Economy Journal Issue 59

MOBILITY
South Africa’s
NEW ENERGY VEHICLE
Driving a meaningful NEV transition in South Africa will require a balance of incentivising a
sustained shift in domestic market demand to NEVs; establishing an appropriately aligned,
renewable energy-based charging infrastructure and supporting a shift in vehicle production.
BY NAAMSA, THE AUTOMOTIVE BUSINESS COUNCIL*
ROADMAP
Existing research shows charging needs will vary substantially
by country and region, housing stock, average distance travelled,
population density and NEV mix. For example, home charging is
currently the most important option in most countries and will remain
a critical option where demographics support it. Other countries
and regions, however, may have lower potential for home charging,
increasing the importance of workplace and public charging.
South Africa will have different demands for DC fast charging mainly
due to its energy challenges, socio-economic demographics and other
local-specific factors. Achieving the right charging infrastructure
mix will require a massive and coordinated investment between the
public and private sectors.
Consumer acceptance and adoption. While South Africa may elect
a gradual phased-in approach after prioritising a manufacturing-led
strategy to NEV evolution, government incentives will undoubtedly
be essential to stimulate demand and encourage consumers to
replace their internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles with NEV
models. Due to the higher levels of inequality in our society, high
unemployment rate and poverty, the complete replacement of
the existing fleets of vehicles in South Africa will take decades,
if not longer (a minimum of 15 to 20 years plus). To accelerate this,
especially as new, more expensive technologies scale and mature;
incentives will be necessary to offset the additional cost at least
partly to the consumer. Otherwise, if consumers are forced to keep
their older vehicles longer than they should, the net effect of NEV
introduction will be negative.
While the auto sector has made significant progress driving down
battery and fuel cell costs, further research and development (R&D)
investments will be needed to realise cost, utility and convenience
parity between NEVs and their ICE counterparts. NEVs currently
cost significantly more to produce than equivalent gasoline cars or
trucks. This divide grows when considering convenience and utility
MOBILITY
Over 300 new mines for graphite,
lithium, nickel and cobalt will need to be
built over the next decade to meet NEV and
energy storage battery demands.
parity, which requires larger batteries to support longer NEV ranges
commensurate with consumer expectations and needs.
R&D. To increase NEV market share, the focus should not be simply
on strengthening fuel-efficiency and other regulations. These must
be complemented by additional government policies that facilitate
the transition to a NEV future, including support for critical R&D.
Globally, automakers have already committed $255-billion to NEV
R&D activities in 2023.
To increase NEV penetration and provide NEV owners the same
cost benefits as those provided by ICE, governments must continue
to work proactively with industry to identify and support critical
R&D opportunities to enhance our localisation ambitions and secure
stable access to critical components and supply chains for local
component manufacturing.
Mineral extraction and supply chain. Sub-Saharan and southern
Africa are endowed with enormous and rich mineral resources we
need in the production of lithium battery technology. If we want to
make South Africa attractive to global and local battery assemblers,
we need to include a beneficiation strategy in our mix so that we
do not just extract but rather develop our own mega factories that
would supply products to the world. Our region is ready, and we
have the following mineral resources around us:
- Nickel | South Africa [the 9th largest global producer] and some
in Zimbabwe
The world is on the cusp of achieving a remarkable milestone
of 20-million NEVs on the road, up from just one-million in
2016. To illustrate the pace of this transition, sales of NEVs
(including fully electric and plug-in hybrids) doubled in 2021 to
a new record of 6.6-million.
Despite global supply chain challenges, sales kept rising into 2022,
with two-million NEVs sold worldwide in the first quarter, up by 75%
from the same period a year earlier. The number of NEVs on the
world’s roads by the end of 2021 was about 16.5-million, triple the
amount in 2018. Notwithstanding this tremendous progress, NEVs
still represent only a fraction of the more than 1.4-billion vehicles
on the road globally. Likewise, the increasing pace of NEV sales are
not the same in every country around the world.
To maximise NEV acceptance and adoption, policymakers and
industry investments must focus on improving vehicle affordability,
increasing consumer awareness and confidence, developing vital
charging and refueling infrastructure as well as building resilient
supply chains to support the manufacture of NEVs.
Electrical charging and hydrogen fuelling infrastructure. All
stakeholders must work together on public policy efforts, such
as incentives, grants, rebates and other mechanisms, along with
private investment, to spur significant electric charging and hydrogen
refueling infrastructure development to support three key areas:
homes (especially multi-unit dwellings and areas with higher
residential densities), workplaces, highways and other public
locations, with an emphasis on those lacking public transport.
THOUGHT [ECO]NOMY
GREEN TRANSPORT STRATEGY FOR SOUTH AFRICA (2018–2050) | The Department
of Transport | [2018]
READ REPORT
greeneconomy/report recycle
Our transport sector accounts for 10.8% of the country’s GHG emissions. There are also indirect emissions
from the production, refining and transportation of fuels. Continued growth within the sector will have
an increasing impact on land resources, water and air quality as well as biodiversity.
The Department of Transport has developed a Green Transport Strategy for South Africa, which aims to
minimise the adverse impacts of transport, while addressing current and future transport demands. Effective
implementation and sufficient funding are the sector’s main challenges. Long-term investment is essential
for the success of the green transport strategy.
The strategy seeks to address the negative environmental impacts of the transport sector in South Africa,
by providing a distinct route of environmental policy directives and resilient climate change initiatives for
the sector that include joint ventures with other spheres of government and the private sector.
READ REPORT
THOUGHT [ECO]NOMY
GLOBAL ROADMAP OF ACTION | Toward Sustainable Mobility | Sustainable Mobility
for All | [2019]
How can countries and cities attain their SDG targets and improve the sustainability of their transport
sector? How can they prioritise action based on their performances on mobility and accelerate
progress? These questions are at the heart of Global Roadmap of Action.
The report proposes a coherent menu of policy actions to reach the SDGs and achieve the four policy
goals that define sustainable mobility (universal access, efficiency, safety and green transport). It embodies
the collective knowledge of 55 organisations, 180 experts and more than 50 decision-makers including
transport ministers, city mayors, public transport operators and 25 corporations.
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