+IMPACT MAGAZINE ISSUE 26

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By the time you read this, you should be prepping for your attendance at 2023’s
Green Building Convention in Cape Town, or deciding on which sessions
to attend. I am always excited to see what Lisa Reynolds, Tamlynne Wilton-
Gurney and their respective teams have created for us and the delegates. This
year’s theme is about SPACE, and not necessarily physical space, such as the built
environment, but a “space for a robust discussion that inspires actionable outcomes”.
This entire phrase got me thinking quite hard. Allow me to explain. In updating
my employer’s sustainability strategy, I came across material that pointed to the “use
of more efficient modes of transport and use of new technologies” as opportunities
towards a decarbonised future. My mind then wandered to electric vehicles (EVs) and
whether embracing EVs, now, is the correct approach for South Africa, given our context.
What triggered me was an old column by American economist Thomas Sowell that
decried California’s approach to enforcing EV quotas on automobile manufacturers,
which he claimed was the cause of California’s electricity crisis or, as he put it,
“a result of years of refusing to have any sense of proportion between the desirability
of environmental goals and the desirability of having electricity”. While the article
hasn’t dated well in some respects – it still bemoaned EVs for not having sufficient
range or being powerful enough to move at reasonable speed – he wasn’t wrong when
he asked what difference it makes when the EV does not create pollution, but the
pollution occurs at an electric power station. This is still the reality today in South
Africa and all renewable generation is being snapped up to mitigate against load
shedding. I believe that as our grid develops, with or without Eskom, our focus will
continue to be on reliable energy production or just keeping the lights on. Then it will
be about producing energy to meet the developmental needs of the economy before
one can consider the necessary charging infrastructure EVs will no doubt require to
become mainstream. But my anxiety goes beyond that – it deals solely with the potential
unemployment we could face.
The rest of the world has been “pumping their own gas” for as long as I can tell, while
in South Africa, we rely on petrol pump attendants. According to the Department of
Energy, we have around 5 000 petrol stations, while according to the South African
Petroleum Industry Association, we have 4 600 petrol stations in the country. Either
number is large, and according to the South African Petroleum Retailers Association,
these petrol stations employ some 73 000 personnel. My worry is how will we absorb
these inevitable job losses should EVs become mainstream, as is being called for. Our
economy has proven to be structurally “stuck”, lacks the agility and is therefore unable
to allow for “just transitions”; and these petrol pump attendants are but one sector –
others are beyond the scope of this column.
Greencape’s Electric Vehicles 2020 Market Intelligence Report noted five-year exponential
growth in momentum in the EV market, primarily driven by commitments to emission
reduction. While South Africa has a significant automobile manufacturing sector that
could easily transition to a thriving EV market promising economic growth and job
creation, current media reports suggest that the EV momentum may be slowing.
Recent developments and market forces might slow down the momentum, and
allow the thinking, creativity and space required for the transition that is worrying me.
Bloomberg reports that Chinese EVs are piling up with no market demand and a large
German manufacturer, which had previously committed to a 100% EV future, recently
announced two new internal combustion engines (ICEs), while Japanese manufacturers
continue to pin their hopes on hybrids. The UK Prime Minister’s policy U-turn, where
he pushed back the deadline for the selling of ICEs and halted the expansion of the
ultra-low emissions zone (ULEZ), was allegedly based on wanting to take a “more
pragmatic, proportionate, and realistic approach”.
Perhaps Thomas Sowell may then be pleased to know that it appears there is a “sense
of proportion” after all, and that “other benefits will be sacrificed, and other costs will
be paid”. Maybe, just maybe, my worry is unjustified.
Chair ’ s Corner
André Theys
GBCSA Chairman
POSITIVE IMPACT ISSUE 26
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