Green Economy Journal Issue 62

MOBILITY
MOBILITY
Rapid shift to
RENEWABLE ENERGY
vital for
EV transition
“This has been a successful contributor to South Africa’s GDP and
manufacturing output and employment, and we want it to have a
sustainable future in South Africa.”
How would South Africa transition to EVs when it can barely
keep the lights on?
Patel says that the pace of South Africa’s transport transition would
be influenced by several factors, including the fact that the country
was battling with an energy shortage (he adds that South Africa
would need to “avoid a sharp rise in energy demand on the grid from
electric vehicles while the grid capacity is being rebuilt”), its energy
mix was dominated by coal (which means charging an EV wouldn’t
be as green as it is in other countries), and it was still in the early
stages of rolling out charging infrastructure. As a result, the Electric
Vehicles White Paper argues that the transition to EVs is dependent
on the national energy mix shifting to renewable energy.
“If our grid remains coal-based, the climate change value to
domestic consumers will be lower,” Patel adds. “So, we are backing
a green dash to try to get greater levels of renewable energy on the
national grid.”
PHASE 1. BUILDING PRODUCTION CAPABILITY
South Africa doesn’t manufacture EVs locally – this not only means
buying one in South Africa would be expensive (as it would be
imported), but the local automotive manufacturing industry (which
serves some 500 000 jobs) is seriously at risk – 66% of South Africa’s
light vehicle production is exported overseas, with most of those
cars going to countries that are planning on banning ICEVs soon.
The first phase of the White Paper focuses on building production
capability for electric vehicles.
“We don’t want to be relegated to being only an ICEV producer,”
Patel says, warning that if the transition to EVs was poorly managed,
South Africa would have to import EVs, and because it is reliant on
exports, by 2030 South Africa would have a declining asset base.
The transition to EVs is
dependent on the national
energy mix shifting to
renewable energy.
SA’s long-awaited Electric Vehicles White Paper was released at the end of 2023, with Minister
Patel emphasising that the value of SA’s electric vehicle market will be realised only if our
national energy mix seriously accelerates our renewable energy capacity.
The Electric Vehicles White Paper provides the long-term strategy
for South Africa to transition to electric vehicles, and makes
the argument for a strong shift to more renewable energy,
Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Ebrahim Patel says.
“The grid has to become greener, not only for purposes of
general climate change and to ensure a wider source of energy,
but also because the value of the domestic market transitioning to
electric vehicles (EVs) will only demonstrate itself if the charging
infrastructure can pull energy that is a lot more renewable than
currently is the case,” says Patel.
The Electric Vehicles White Paper, which was approved by the
Cabinet last year, aims to ensure South Africa becomes part of the
global shift from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to
new-technology vehicles (which include battery EVs and hybrids).
South Africa’s transport sector is the second biggest polluter
after the power industry – accounting for 13% of the country’s
CO2 emissions, with road transport accounting for 91.2% of these
transport emissions.
In addition, South Africa’s automotive manufacturing industry
is seriously at risk if the country does not transition. The National
Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa)
reported that three out of every four vehicles exported were destined
for the EU and the UK, which have set bans on the sale of new ICEVs
from 2035.
“We’ve got to make this transition for climate change purposes.
But also, for industrial policy purposes,” Patel says.
Article courtesy Daily Maverick
Does the grid have the capacity to support EVs?
MJ Booysen, an engineering professor at Stellenbosch University
whose research and projects focus on electrifying the transport
sector, says, “The answer is … it’s a negative number.”
However, there are private companies that provide off-the-grid
charging stations.
As of mid-2023, South Africa had about 350 public EV charging
stations, and many companies plan to expand.
Patel says that while off-the-grid charging is part of the solution
and should be encouraged, “We see it still being useful for early
adopters and at a modest scale. If you want to move significantly,
you’re going to have to integrate it into a stable infrastructure that
can take a high load factor.”
Patel emphasises that this meant dealing with grid constraints, and
while this White Paper is not South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan
(which lays out the future of the country’s energy mix), it “makes the
argument for a strong shift to more renewable energy”.
Mike Mabasa, the CEO of Naamsa, said many original equipment
manufacturers were looking at technology that recharged the battery
as the vehicle moved. Some EVs have replaceable batteries, “So you
drive into a charging station and instead of waiting for two hours to
have the battery charged, you have it swapped for another.”
PHASE 2. STIMULATING DEMAND FOR EVS
Mabasa says, “We are very pleased to note that the White Paper
takes into account stimulation for demand in Phase 2 … because
we recognise the fact that the government is managing a number
of competing – both social and also economic – challenges.”
South Africa has only about 2 300 EVs among some two-million
passenger vehicles, which is a far cry from the rest of the world, with
14% of all cars sold worldwide in 2022 (amounting to 10-million)
being electric.
42
43