Opportunity Issue 108

SACCI Business Confidence Index – November 2023
Economic data
The SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI)
2020 = 100
Month 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
January 107.0 112.9 115.3 109.9 106.6 109.2 108.8 112.9
February 107.1 110.4 114.3 108.0 107.2 109.0 112.0 111.9
March 108.6 108.4 112.8 106.1 103.9 108.7 110.5 111.3
April 110.4 109.7 111.0 108.3 89.9 109.5 108.3 107.1
May 106.1 107.7 108.7 107.5 81.0 112.1 103.2 106.9
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) regularly publishes economic data
relating to business confidence and trade, the SACCI Business Confidence Index and the Trade Conditions
Survey. As of 2023, SACCI has been collaborating with the Bureau
October
of Market Research (BMR) in producing
November
the Small Business Growth Index. For more statistics, see www.sacci.org.za and www.bmr.co.za
June 109.9 109.7 108.3 107.9 94.1 111.2 108.5 108.8
July 111.0 110.2 109.5 106.4 95.7 107.7 110.3 107.3
August 107.4 103.6 104.6 103.0 99.2 106.2 105.6 108.6
September 104.4 107.5 107.9 106.8 99.1 105.2 110.9 108.2
107.5 107.4 110.8 106.0 106.4 109.7 109.4 108.6
108.6 109.9 111.1 107.2 108.0 107.3 110.9 111.5
December 108.4 111.4 110.1 107.6 109.0 106.4 117.3
Average 108.0 109.1 110.4 107.1 100.0 108.5 109.6
SACCI BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX
Business’s positive determination drives confidence
In October 2023, the SACCI Business Confidence Index (BCI) held steady at
108.6 but saw a boost to 111.5 in November 2023, using 2020 as the base year
at 100. Compared to November 2022 (when it stood at 110.9), the latest BCI
suggests that the business climate and economic conditions didn't provide
the spark for increased confidence over the medium term. Unfortunately,
it seems there's a lack of positive momentum in business confidence,
with several economic challenges yet to be resolved. Between October
and November 2023, 11 out of 14 BCI sub-indices either showed positive
changes (six) or remained virtually unchanged (five). The BCI improved by
2.9 index points from October to November 2023. Notably, inward tourism
and merchandise import volumes made the most positive contributions to
business confidence in November 2023. This doesn't necessarily mean the
business climate has become favourable or that upward momentum is fully
restored. Much of the positive vibe came from civil society and businesses
showing resilience. Swiftly resolving painful adjustments by the public sector
could potentially restore upward momentum and crucially inspire investor
confidence for a higher economic growth rate. Creating such a positive
environment requires fostering appropriate international relations and
ensuring supportive human and fixed capital stocks especially in a dynamic
economy such as South Africa’s.
SACCI Business Confidence Index – November 2023
The SACCI The Business SACCI Business Confidence Confidence Index (BCI) Index 2020=100 (BCI)
2020 = 100
Month 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
January 107.0 112.9 115.3 109.9 106.6 109.2 108.8 112.9
February 107.1 110.4 114.3 108.0 107.2 109.0 112.0 111.9
March 108.6 108.4 112.8 106.1 103.9 108.7 110.5 111.3
April 110.4 109.7 111.0 108.3 89.9 109.5 108.3 107.1
May 106.1 107.7 108.7 107.5 81.0 112.1 103.2 106.9
June 109.9 109.7 108.3 107.9 94.1 111.2 108.5 108.8
July 111.0 110.2 109.5 106.4 95.7 107.7 110.3 107.3
August 107.4 103.6 104.6 103.0 99.2 106.2 105.6 108.6
September 104.4 107.5 107.9 106.8 99.1 105.2 110.9 108.2
October 107.5 107.4 110.8 106.0 106.4 109.7 109.4 108.6
November 108.6 109.9 111.1 107.2 108.0 107.3 110.9 111.5
December 108.4 111.4 110.1 107.6 109.0 106.4 117.3
Average 108.0 109.1 110.4 107.1 100.0 108.5 109.6
2
TRADE CONDITIONS SURVEY, SACCI
Trade conditions remain weak
The SACCI December 2023 survey on trade conditions indicated a slight
improvement in the trading climate for November and December
2023, though respondents generally perceive the conditions as fragile.
In December, 38% expressed positivity about the conditions and 43%
anticipate improvements in the next six months. Notably, 64% viewed
trade conditions in December 2023 as worse than in December 2022.
Despite the prevailing weak trade conditions, seasonally adjusted
expectations for the next six months verge on a positive scenario. The
ongoing decline in new vehicle sales serves as a leading indicator,
signalling potential challenges for the economy. Retail trade volumes are
also showing a negative trend, but foreign trade and inward tourism have
positively impacted trade in the short and medium term. November's Black
Friday did not significantly boost trade, with more concern around rand
volatility and exchange rate fluctuations. Although
2
input cost increases
have moderated, some still face price hikes of up to 12%. Electricity supply
remains a hindrance to trade, yet businesses have explored alternatives.
Looking ahead, 43% of respondents are considering hiring additional staff
in the next six months.