5. - Secil

3. PORTUGAL
3.1. MACROECONOMIC
BACKGROUND
Business in Portugal was significantly
constrained in 2008 by international
economic developments.
Interest rates and oil and commodity
prices soared in the first half of
the year and the financial crisis
spread from June onwards. By the
fourth quarter, developed economies
tipped into recession, accompanied
by a sharp drop in
interest rates and the oil price.
In this context, gross domestic
product is expected to have increased
by only 0.3% in 2008 (Bank
of Portugal – Economic Bulletin –
January 2009), with negative growth
forecasted for 2009.
According to the same source,
investment, measured by gross
fixed capital formation, is expected to have
declined by around 0.8%, resuming the
downwards trend recorded up to 2006 and
interrupted in 2007.
The construction sector continued to
decline, albeit more slowly than might have
been expected in view of the current crisis.
According to INE data, construction and
public work activity is thought to have declined
by around 1% in 2008 (construction
and public works production index – INE –
January 2009). According to data published
by FEPICOP (Portuguese Construction
and Public Works Federation), the decline
stood at approximately 1.1% (Sector
Analysis – January 2009).
Inflation, measured by the harmonized
retail price index, stood at 2.7%, slightly
down from 2007 (2.4%).
Interest rates rose gradually
through to September, and then
fell sharply: as an example
the Euribor (3 month)
rate fell from 4.67%
in December 2007
to 2.89% in December
2008.
3. Portugal
3.2. CEMENT
3.2.1. MARKET AND SALES
Cement consumption in the European
Union is expected to have declined by
approximately 6% in 2008, clearly inverting
the trend of growth recorded over
recent years.
In Portugal, cement consumption
is thought to
have stood at 7.3
million tons, represent
i n g
a significantde-
Pataias Swimming Pools
crease in relation to 2007
(- 7.5%) and a return to
marked decline which
started in 2002 and only
briefly interrupted in
2007.
The decline in cement
demand in recent years
reflects the recession in
the construction sector
which has been most
hard felt in the residential
segment and to a lesser
extent in the non-
-residential and public
works sectors.
It is estimated that
the volume of cement
sold in the
country resulting
from
cement
and
clinker imports was
approximately
400 000
tons in
2008.