Independent Review of Police Officer and Staff Remuneration and ...

Independent Review of Police Officer and Staff Remuneration and Conditions – Final Report
52
Figure 1.4
Office for Budget Responsibility projections of Public Sector Net Debt
as a percentage of GPD, from 2010 to 2061
Percentage of GDP
105
95
85
75
65
55
2010-2011
2013-2014
2016-2017
2019-2020
2022-2023
2025-2026
2028-2029
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility
2031-2032
2034-2035
2037-2038
Financial year
2040-2041
2043-2044
2046-2047
2049-2050
2052-2053
2055-2056
2058-2059
PSND
(July 2011 forecast)
PSND
(November 2011 forecast)
1.3.8 These financial forecasts indicate that public sector finances will be under considerable
pressure for the foreseeable future and not just the period of the Government’s current spending
review until 2015/16. Therefore, it should not be assumed that central Government police
service grant will return to pre-2009 levels for some considerable time.
1.3.9 The effects of lower central Government policing grant settlements could be offset by police
and crime commissioners using their powers to raise additional money by increasing the local
precept. The precept is the amount raised for policing by local council tax. However, this
possibility may, at least to some appreciable extent, be more theoretical than real, especially at
a time when citizens are experiencing considerable financial pressures themselves. Increases in
local taxation may be politically unfeasible, at least for the foreseeable future.
1.3.10 For these reasons, it should be assumed that any increases in the central policing grant will be
lower over the next 30 years than they were over the 30 years since the Edmund-Davies report.
Indeed, there may need to be further reductions in spending. Chief Constables will almost
certainly need a materially different set of financial and workforce tools to enable them to
operate within their resource allocations for the next 30 years.
1.4 Social
1.4.1 The future demographics of the population from which the police must draw their recruits is
also a significant consideration in the long-term reform of police pay and conditions. If the
recommendations of this review are implemented, the resulting reforms have the potential to
last for the next 20 to 30 years. The health and longevity of the population from which the
future workforce may be drawn have implications beyond simply the composition of pension
arrangements. They include the health and fitness of police officers and staff, and therefore
their ability to protect the public.
1.4.2 As discussed in Chapter 5, the public expects the police service to be physically fit. There
is currently a fitness assessment as part of the recruitment procedures for officers. However,
obesity is an increasing problem. For example, the proportion of males over 30 in England who