Didier Duret - RTL.nl

8
Equity theme –
Megatrend theme update
Our new theme, Biological solutions, fits well with our current
portfolio of themes. One of our main base assumptions for
this portfolio is the growing demand for goods and services
from the more affluent middle classes, especially in fast-
Research & Strategy
Edith Thouin - Head Theme Research
growing markets. Alternative supplies are needed and these
have to be sufficient, renewable and environmentally friendly.
A new wave of technologies will change the way we
consume and produce in the years to come.
Theme Launch Investment case Key components Current theme
recommendation
New age of
services
No nonsense
consumer
Green
infrastructure
Big is beautiful
Filling the
factory
Taking care
European gems
Quality counts
The return of
the consumer
Mergers and
Acquisitions for
a reason
Pricing power
High-quality
dividends
The care
industry
Step
on the gas
3Q08
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
As global trade expands, the need for transport,
storage and inspection of goods is accelerating.
Consumers are debt laden and are working at ways
to maintain their living standards but “at a discount”.
Long-term elements (environment friendliness and
energy savings) and short-term reasons (stimulus
programmes) benefit “green” infrastructure
Investors focus on large companies that can expand in
emerging markets (EM) to become real global players.
As demand picked up again and inventories were at
historical lows, it was time to get production going.
The rising and changing needs of consumers in EM
as they move up Maslow’s triangle of needs.
Large European expertise and brand names are in
demand with the rising middle classes worldwide,
helped by a weakening euro.
As production in EM moves up the value chain and
global trade keeps on growing, the need for global
quality standards, including environmental and
safety regulations, is on the rise.
With the recovery (in the US and Asia) gaining
pace, consumer spending is leading.
Companies are cash rich. Vertical integration and
scarcity issues lead to more acquisitions.
In an age of austerity, pricing power is proving
paramount for companies to maintain margins and
secure long-term earnings growth.
In an uncertain and low interest rate environment,
investors focus on dividend-paying stocks as a
stable source of yield.
Focus on health and wellness trends, relaxing
in a high-stress environment.
Shale gas revolution in the US will have profound
impact on different companies.
Vopak, SGS, Intertek, Burlington Northern
(taken over by Berkshire Hathaway)
Amazon, Fielmann, Ryanair, Tesco,
Walmart, McDonalds, H&M
Nalco, Syngenta, DSM, Arcadis, Veolia,
Flour
Samsung Electr., HSBC, Roche, Oracle,
Coca-Cola, LVMH, Caterpillar, Walmart
ASML, Caterpillar, Siemens, Imtech,
Arcelor Mittal, ABB, Aalberts
Samsung Electr., Adidas, Genting B., Mead
Johnson, Heineken, Prudential, Intertek
BASF, DSM, Daimler, Fresenius, L’Oréal,
Intertek, Sanofi, Siemens
Mead Johnson, Bureau Veritas, Thermo
Fischer, Symrise, Vopak, Fresenius,
DSM, Keppel Corp.
Adidas, Apple, Daimler, Fedex, Randstad,
Simon Property, Swatch, Wereldhave
Mead Johnson, Mosaic, Gea, Symrise,
Starbucks, Actelion, Macarthur Coal, Qiagen
Apple, Philip Morris, Allergan, Lanxess,
Coca-Cola, Nestle, Reckitt Benckiser,
Starbucks
BASF, DSM, Philp Morris Intl., Royal Dutch,
Roche, AT&T, Nestle, Bristol Myers,
SingTel, Vodafone
Allergan, Estee Lauder, DSM,
WeightWatchers, Starbucks, L’Oréal, DaVita
Dow Chemical, BASF, LyondellBasell,
Intl. Paper, Kinder Morgan
Strong buy
Closed
Feb. 2010
Buy
Buy
Closed
May 2011
Strong buy
Buy
Strong buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Strong buy
Strong buy
Strong buy