the effect of bioenergy production for the agricultural outputs ... - IAMO

4
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
Production area of maize
[thousand ha]
Maize
Contributed Paper presented at IAMO Forum 2008
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Produced maize
[thousand tons]
Maize
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
3. figure: Parameters of the Hungarian maize growing in the last 15 years [source: KSH]
The production area of maize increased in the period of 1998 - 2007 because of the beginning
of bioethanol production. The yearly amount of the produced maize was fluctuated because of
the weather. You can see these processes on the 3 rd figure.
Hungary has the goal to reach the 5.75% (in energy equivalent) mixing rate till 2010, that
means 8.61 cubic % in point of the bioethanol. To achieve this goal 172 thousand litre (136
thousand tons) bioethanol is needed to mix into the petrol. That amount of bioethanol can
produce from 400 thousand tons of maize. If we assume 6 tons / hectare produced amount it
will be necessary to sow 70 thousand hectares maize. [Popp] The production area of maize
was fluctuating between 1100-1200 thousand hectares in the last 8 years, so Hungary’s
bioethanol need will be only the 5-6% of the total maize production area in 2010. This is not a
considerable need and has basically no influences for the Hungarian agricultural outputs. The
annual need of 400 thousand tons of maize is only a small amount beside the Hungarian
annual production, the 4000 – 8000 thousand tons. The weather is able to generate bigger
effects for the Hungarian maize growing than the bioethanol production.
According to the opinion of the authors the amount of maize, which is used by bioethanol
production, can not cause a big price-increasing; so the Hungarian feed-price will not increase
heavily. The DDGS which is produced by secondary product of bioethanol production can be
used as feed. If Hungary uses 400 thousand tons maize to produce bioethanol, minimum 100
thousand tons of DDGS will be produced too. This amount of DDGS could replace the maize
which is used by bioethanol production.
Only the Hungarian bioethanol industry will not able to change basically the production area
of maize and the agricultural outputs in Hungary in the next 5 years.