the effect of bioenergy production for the agricultural outputs ... - IAMO

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6 Contributed Paper presented at IAMO Forum 2008 You can see the planned and also the functioning biodiesel plants of Hungary on the 4 th figure. In 2007 Hungary had only 3 functioning biodiesel plants. Biodiesel production is not able to generate profit without any support in the world. Hungary has the same situation. Like numerous bioethanol plants many biodiesel plants “died” during the authorisation. You can see the parameters of Hungarian rape and sunflower production on the 5 th figure. The continuous growing of production area and produced amount of rape is readable from the figure. The production area of the sunflower stagnates because Hungary uses all of its capacities to produce sunflower. The country gives more than 20% of the production of rape of the European Union. The Hungarian production area of sunflower can not grow any longer because the plant mustn’t be sowed in the same place during five years. Hungary has around 4.6 million hectare tillage. In 2007 the production area of sunflower was 780 thousand hectare. Consequently more than the 1/6 total tillage was sowed with sunflower so the country reached its capacity-border. 5. figure: Parameters of the Hungarian sunflower and rape growing [source: KSH] You can see unequivocally on the 5 th figure that thanks to the international growing of the biodiesel production the Hungarian rape production is growing year by year. This process started in 2000 and has not stopped yet. The supply adapted to the delay. You can see this process only for rape because the capacity borders blocked the sunflower production. You can get oil from rape easier and cheaper than from sunflower at the present technical level. Hungary has the goal to achieve the 5.75% mixing rate (in energy equivalent) in 2010. This means 6.51cubic % mixed biodiesel which is equivalent 228 thousand litres, 200 thousand tons. The forecasted demand of raw materials is 400 thousand rape or sunflower in 2010. [Popp] Biodiesel can be produced from dead oil so could decrease the effects of the biodiesel production to the Hungarian agricultural outputs. The used rape or sunflower as raw material
The effect of bioenergy production for the agricultural outputs in Hungary could be change to the dead oil. Hungary does not have the assumptions to collect the dead oil and produce biodiesel from it. If we assume that Hungary is not able to collect a big amount of dead oil to create biodiesel in 2010, it will be expedient to produce biodiesel only from rape. 400 thousand tons of rape means more than the fourth amount of the total (1500 thousand tons) rape production of Hungary. Consequently it will be necessary to use more areas to produce rape in Hungary. If the amount of biodiesel which is made from sunflower increases, the price of the oil which is used by the households can be more expensive. The researcher should make allowance for the processes of the world market. The demand for rape and sunflower can increase through the rise of biodiesel production. The European Union has a leader position in biodiesel production so these processes have bigger effect in the EU. (Of course the demand of palm oil will increase but this process has the biggest effect only for the agriculture of tropical countries.) The authors expect an increase of the price of the rapeand sunflower oil that generates a growing effect of rape production in Hungary. The country can expect a rising rape production area. Consequently the increasing rape production area may displace other plants but this process is very incalculable yet. Rape mill and sunflower mill are the by-products of biodiesel production. The sunflower mill is able to burn in power plants and the rape mill is an excellent feed. The authors expect a heavy decrease of the price of rape mill, because of increasing rape production of the last years. The rape mill can deputize the maize which is used for feed animals. Consequently the price of feed can stagnate in the following years. In 2010 Hungary will grow 400 thousand tons of rape to produce biodiesel. As by-product the country has 200 thousand tons rape mill in 2010. Confronting this numbers with that numbers which we have at the end of the last chapter we got the following result: Hungary will use 400 thousand tons of maize for its bioethanol production in 2010. Consequently 400 thousand tons of maize is missing as feed, but 100 thousand tons of DDGS is produced as by-product of bioethanol production + 200 thousand rape mill is produced as by-product of biodiesel production. We get the result that Hungary has 300 thousand tons of feed instead of 400 thousand tons of maize as feed. It means that only 100 thousand tons of feed will miss in 2010. These 100 thousand tons of feed can be compensated with a minimal growth of the production area of maize. Accordingly a high increasing of the feed prices because of the biofuel production is not probable in Hungary. 7
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