- Page 1 and 2: From Principle-Based Risk Managemen
- Page 3: Table of Contents Prefaces iv Ackno
- Page 7 and 8: The merger of the SCOR group with C
- Page 9 and 10: Acknowledgements This documentation
- Page 11 and 12: List of Contributors NAME FUNCTION
- Page 13 and 14: Executive Summary This SST-model do
- Page 15 and 16: The Non-Life Run-off risk is basica
- Page 17 and 18: Part V, “economic balance sheet,
- Page 19 and 20: I Insurance Risk 1
- Page 21 and 22: 3.2.4 New Business, Prior-Year Busi
- Page 23 and 24: 5 Dependency Structure of the Life
- Page 25 and 26: List of Figures 3.1 Modules of the
- Page 27 and 28: 2 Valuation of Insurance Liabilitie
- Page 29 and 30: We now return to the notion of perf
- Page 31 and 32: on the portfolio itself and on the
- Page 33 and 34: � An optimal replicating portfoli
- Page 35 and 36: The second observation is that the
- Page 37 and 38: � The default option To this supe
- Page 39 and 40: is not exercised, and that fi(ORPi)
- Page 41 and 42: Note that the capital is not part o
- Page 43 and 44: 2.2 SST Valuation 2.2.1 Market Valu
- Page 45 and 46: Returning to the question of how to
- Page 47 and 48: conditional on the information avai
- Page 49 and 50: � Business for which the expected
- Page 51 and 52: and that the mismatches Mi decompos
- Page 53 and 54: with ξ (i) b defined in (2.23), an
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� Non-life liabilities: We propos
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ather than a true replicating portf
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3 Non-Life Insurance Liability Mode
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� Unearned previous year business
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in the pricing tool. Normatively, t
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The approach to modeling the depend
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- including business retroceded fro
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� Cumulative patterns Incremental
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Since the split of the one-year cla
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� The reserve model for the under
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with the dependency structure betwe
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3.3.2 Dependency Structure and Aggr
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Liability related (θ =0.4708) Avia
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The rationale behind this approxima
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are discounted using default or cus
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on experience pricing or, preferabl
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For exposure pricing, there is a st
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� Their total premium The pricing
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� The relevant terms and conditio
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3.5.1 Aviation Market Model Our avi
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The probability of default for a si
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available. Additionally, in this da
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Model Input Cat Model Model Output
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For detailed loss modeling (RiskLin
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model. Extratropical cyclones, such
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River Flooding In the insurance ind
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loss amounts. Bibliography: Porter
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Peril Regions Model Europe - windst
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with ˜ηi defined in (3.8). The fo
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The basket mismatches (3.17) then c
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are unbiased and uncorrelated, and
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3.9.4 Dependency Structure and Aggr
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3.10.1 Acquisition and Maintenance
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3.10.2 Required Data and Discussion
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Standard long-duration business In
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- Policyholders can increase volati
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That means the present value of the
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to 50%. We felt that an increase wa
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This approach provides an approach
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Probability x 10-4 Number 10 9 8 7
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Region Duration LoB Premium Volume
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� (1+β) equals the mean values o
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� The GMDB portfolio is split int
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eplicating portfolio consisting of
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The rate is a fixed rate for each c
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CF by account value after ten years
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Ratchet Policies Ratchet GMDBs are
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Figure 4.6: Surface plot of GMDB ca
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4.7.3 Checking and Bias There will
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4.7.4 Projecting the Replicating Po
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Graph of the standard deviation mea
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3. We evaluate the impact of these
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large standard excess of loss contr
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7 Limitations of the Liability Mode
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� The values of the dependency pa
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from all underwriting years at the
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contains new business or run-off bu
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2. For the top-down allocation proc
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present different scalar measures o
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A natural approach to assess implic
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Define the concordance order ≺ fo
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measures and, in particular, the fa
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provided that the respective limits
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1. C is symmetric, and thus also ex
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� It is upper semi-comprehensive
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using the independence of X and Y .
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8.3.1 Introduction It is well known
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e gradually reduced as more informa
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8.3.3 Risk Measure, Capital Allocat
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then K(·,Z) is given by the direct
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The main technical problem here see
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function. The impact of diversifica
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In order to be able to decentralize
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This might be feasible in case an e
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8.3.5 Temporality of Capital, Capit
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By slight abuse of language, we wil
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So if the premium is technical, an
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which is a consequence of the fact
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Table of Contents 9 Introduction 19
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13 Accounting of an Equity Portfoli
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List of Figures 10.1 The bootstrapp
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with an emphasis on the dynamics of
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The model of foreign exchange rates
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10 Bootstrapping the Economy 10.1 A
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of our approach. The part of our do
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where F can be a logarithm or a mor
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� Compute the innovations of vari
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significantly deviate from averages
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10.2.8 Dependence Simultaneous inno
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10.2.10 Fat Tails of Distribution F
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and A = ηmin − B (10.15) We stil
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� Inflation, in the form of a Con
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The forward rate of an infinitesima
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ates. At time ti, the distribution
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which we approximately assume to be
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For our bootstrapping algorithm, we
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The yield curves of Figure 10.3 ind
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it. We define an adjusted forward I
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than one PPP cycle (many years). An
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y the bootstrapping method, at leas
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10.4.3 Out-of-Sample Backtesting Ou
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Out-of-sample backtesting: uniform
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EUR and CHF, where the central bank
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yield spreads and possibly other ec
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our low-frequency case with quarter
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11.1 Swaptions The price of the swa
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11.4 Sensitivity The sensitivity an
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12 Bond Portfolio Management 12.1 I
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a regular sequence of maturities. E
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cash flow and are regarded as an in
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� The initial zero-coupon yield c
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the bond portfolio is already known
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Immediately after the coupon paymen
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where MVbeforeC comes from Equation
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� the market value f acc mid MVbe
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iterative algorithm. Instead, we re
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more or less corresponds to the beh
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period later. The change in book va
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Now we can compute the final book v
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12.12 Final Accounting Results in A
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13 Accounting of an Equity Portfoli
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� The currency of the equity port
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calculations, we need to know the f
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moving the overall book value close
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inclination and uFX = 1 means conti
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14 Managing Cash Flows of Assets an
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total liability cash flow is called
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14.5 Cash Flow with a Hedging Compo
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varies in the same direction as the
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16 Limitations of the Market Risk M
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Table of Contents 17 Introduction 3
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List of Tables 18.1 The rating vari
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an emphasis on numerical simulation
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18 Modeling Credit Spreads and Defa
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(which are rather slowly reacting v
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and the other way around, using for
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never exceeds 1. The obvious choice
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model assumption is that only the f
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is in the following range: 0 < Zcla
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We obtain 1 ΔXdefault = − X (18.
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where C(t0 +Δt) is a result from t
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Extreme cases matter in risk manage
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Corporate bonds also depend on the
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IV Operational and Emerging Risks 3
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20 Operational Risk The Operational
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21 Emerging Risks Emerging risks 1
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Table of Contents 22 Aggregating Ri
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List of Figures 23.1 SCOR (Switzerl
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as this would result in a double co
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Converium IP Management Ltd., Zuric
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24 Fungibility of Capital The model
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Lowercase indices i count the legal
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24.4 Limitations of Modeling of Cap
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complex financial instruments, mark
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porting is done as of end of year.
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26 The Valuation of Liabilities In
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Funds Held under Reinsurance Contra
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This part summarizes the general te
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Table of Contents 27 Summary 358 28
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List of Tables 31.1 Scenario produc
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Abbreviations ALM Asset and Liabili
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modules: “economic scenario gener
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the sign-off matrix of the overall
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29.1.1 Process Description Process
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Chief Investment Officer (CIO) �
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yearly in Q3 review risk tolerance
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30.2 The Execution of the ALM Model
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30.3 Detailed Module Description 30
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Market cycle The market cycle is no
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� Obtain a sign-off of the genera
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Claims paid, premium and earning pa
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Roles and Responsibilities The foll
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Data Entities The following data en
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Market cycle, inflation index Proce
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� Coordinate the overall liabilit
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Retrocession coordinator: The retro
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30.3.4 Asset Modeling The main purp
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Asset sensitivity Process Steps The
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30.3.5 Aggregated Results Calculati
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Process Steps The following process
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31 Scenarios 31.1 Overview Creating
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Finalization of the combined scenar
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31.4 Sign-off Procedures Sign-off (
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Kick off: Project description and p
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FOPI liaison: Project manager: Proj
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VIII SST Systems 407
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36.4.1 Functional Overview . . ....
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List of Figures 34.1 Overview of th
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34 Introduction In the past decades
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34.2 ALM Systems and ALM Process A
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35.1 Software Development Process 3
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� Ensure the use of standardized
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36 Detailed Description of Systems
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� module� data�input economic
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Non- -Bloomberg time series Manual
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data can be automatically imported
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einsurance life business using thes
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36.3.3 CORE CORE - Converium Reserv
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depend on the economic scenarios as
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� Administer the basket structure
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The Finance department and the team
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Composition of invested assets port
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tional input to the risk simulation
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User Interface Object Model Communi
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37.5.1 Extensibility The methodolog
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3. Provide basic components for new
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IT System Ownership CORE - Converiu
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In July 2008, the first SST report
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D DFA Dynamic financial analysis. d
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R RAC Risk adjusted capital. RBAM R
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420 As-if adjustments proportional
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Common account protection, see pric
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Discounted outstanding reserves, 29
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isk contribution to the ES,results
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Individual model, see pricing Infla
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dependency between default of retro
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natural catastrophe modeling, 80-91
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aration in bond portfolios, 321 cre
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natural catastrophe modeling, 83 Me
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Pricing application of treaty struc
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Run-off baskets classification, 99
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design principles for IT systems, s
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References Artzner, P., Delbaen, F.
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Diebold, F., Gunther, T., and Tay,
- Page 503 and 504:
Keller, P. (2007). Internal models
- Page 505:
Skalsky, M. and Bürgi, R. (2008).