From Principle-Based Risk Management to Solvency ... - Scor

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I shall not go into the different chapters of the book, the executive summary chapter helps to understand the general architecture and the key points. I will just put some emphasis on the Economic Scenario Generator (ESG) which has been created and developed by the modelling team itself using a resampling methodology through the bootstrap techniques. Usually, modellers make use of economic scenario generators developed by software firms or economic information providers. In our case this innovative approach is crucial as a masterpiece in the modelling scheme and is entirely embedded in the algorithms, which gives an additional efficiency to the ALM process. We are particularly proud to have been able to extend this internal model through an integrated group organisation which allows now the entire group to benefit from the intellectual and technical skills which had been invested in the past. After this first success, new projects are already launched in order to maintain state-of -the-art modelling approaches in our company. We are today happy and proud to share this information with different communities: academic, regulators, actuaries and clients of SCOR. Denis Kessler Chief Executive Officer SCOR Group v July, 2008
The merger of the SCOR group with Converium brought about, as part of the “wedding arrangement”, a well-advanced corporate asset and liability management according to the requirements of the Swiss Solvency Test (SST). Putting into place and making such a significant project work, requires the collaboration of a variety of highly skilled professionals, who bring along many years of work experience in the various fields of the project. The fact of sharing this broad knowledge is already an asset to the company processes. It is important to acknowledge the competence and the attention to quality which have guided the management of this project. In reading this book, anyone can appreciate the quality of work done and the competence of the project’s participants who compiled this extensive SST documentation. Beyond the accomplishment of the Zurich entity, which is remarkable in itself, the SCOR group finds it a very useful experience for its other European entities. This will enable the group to comply with the risk model required by Solvency II in the future, which is based on concepts very close to those of the SST. For satisfying the future requirements by the European Union’s regulations, the rapid implementation of the SST will allow us to bring valuable experience to the group for choosing the appropriate tools and methods going forward. Thus, the important investment and the accumulation of knowledge made over time by the teams of SCOR Switzerland (former Converium) will enable us not only to satisfy the expectations of the Swiss regulator but undoubtedly represent an advantage for the SCOR group as a whole. Beyond the regulatory requirements, the understanding of the concepts as well as results of risk modeling is essential in all sectors of the group. The whole set of rules, processes, and methods that accompany the implementation of those models are vital in developing a coherent Entreprise Risk Management process. This process allows the company to optimally allo- vi
Page 1 and 2: From Principle-Based Risk Managemen
Page 3: Table of Contents Prefaces iv Ackno
Page 8 and 9: cate the capital necessary for the
Page 10 and 11: and gave their support to this long
Page 12 and 13: NAME FUNCTION COMPANY Schindler Chr
Page 14 and 15: approach. The major risk factor cat
Page 16 and 17: force”), the volatility clusterin
Page 18 and 19: Part IX gives an outlook on the cur
Page 20 and 21: Table of Contents 1 Preliminaries 8
Page 22 and 23: 3.9.4 Dependency Structure and Aggr
Page 24 and 25: List of Tables 3.1 The portfolio de
Page 26 and 27: 1 Preliminaries Financial instrumen
Page 28 and 29: 2.1 Basics of Valuation 2.1.1 Valua
Page 30 and 31: has been removed. In the option exa
Page 32 and 33: Different types of “imperfect rep
Page 34 and 35: only depends on the law, i.e. the d
Page 36 and 37: For this reason, we define an unbia
Page 38 and 39: value of the assets has to exceed t
Page 40 and 41: educes the amounts Ki and thus the
Page 42 and 43: Hence, basis risk arises when the a
Page 44 and 45: � the default option � sharehol
Page 46 and 47: Note that the set Ω⋆ 1 exclude t
Page 48 and 49: In view of the solvency condition (
Page 50 and 51: that year. The change in the estima
Page 52 and 53: The “stand-alone” shortfalls ES
Page 54 and 55: Further, we propose to calculate th
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We propose the following treatment
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In pricing, on the other hand, the
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We distinguish within the non-life
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To be more precise, a model is cons
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conditional on the information avai
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not for run-off business. The propo
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� Dependency between new, prior-y
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Run-Off Business By definition, run
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3.2.4 New Business, Prior-Year Busi
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� Run-off business model for the
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� Basket specific models: In thes
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Agribusiness (θ =0.2673) Marine (
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Basket Specific Models Basket speci
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is reasonable and, in particular, c
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Credit and Surety (Section 3.6, pp.
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An alternative approach is used, fo
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Historical losses are “as if” a
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In general, the structure of a rein
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� Measures of profitability such
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affected airlines respectively manu
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Note that for the exposure loss mod
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3.7.4 Simulation Currently it is no
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with the modeling of the hazard, th
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3.8.2 Hazard Module Wind Windstorm
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ical source zones as fault, area or
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exposure retrieval and preparation,
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areas. Catrader performs analyzes o
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� paid external expenses (brokera
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� underwriting years k =0, 1 ...,
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� Volatility in the Mack model co
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the mean-squared error for the one-
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3.9.5 Data Requirements and Paramet
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where we might take ai =(1+θ) i fo
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4 Life and Health Methodology Our d
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4.2 GMDB Definition and Exposure Th
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4.3 Finance Re 4.3.1 Definition and
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are almost not affected by changes
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Fluctuation risk should be seen in
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Probability 10 x 10-4 Number of cla
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� Geography � Product types �
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� Determination of the frequency
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� Industry accident (contaminatio
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scenarios used, the same economic s
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4.7.1 Determining a Set of Replicat
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need to be evaluated is small compa
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Asset Strike Number of assets Europ
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Figure 4.4: Surface plot of GMDB ca
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Figure 4.7: GMDB with no maximum fo
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Standard deviation 400 000 350 000
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formula both including and excludin
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5 Dependency Structure of the Life
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6 Mitigation of Insurance Risk This
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We compute the two parameters which
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usiness written in the first year i
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For multi-location policies the qua
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8 Appendix 8.1 Portfolio Dependency
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Z1,1 Z1,1,1 Z1,1,2 Z1 Z1,2 Z1,3 Z Z
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To this probability, suitability (8
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insurance losses gives the insured
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Moreover, the copula C is given by
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continuous margins F1 and F2 and ex
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The third fallacy pertains to corre
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function C :[0, 1] d → [0, 1] has
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The d-dimensional Clayton copula is
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The two stochastic variables X and
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3. Use Equation (8.19) to compute t
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usiness and type of business, the e
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Further approaches to capital alloc
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(Xi)i=1,...,m, so for the net prese
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e a bounded, monotonously decreasin
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Definition 8.5 The composition C⋆
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in the portfolio. According to (8.5
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Now assume that H0 is an arbitrary
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Definition 8.13 For a copula C, the
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consequently, the total capital cos
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The time factor τX1+X2 of the sum
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where the probability measure GX,Z
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II Market Risk 192
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10.3.8 Interaction and Expectation
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List of Tables 12.1 Approximation f
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9 Introduction 9.1 Economic Risks i
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vations by means of statistical res
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the details needed in any concrete
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lation of future time intervals. Wh
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10.2 Bootstrapping - the Method and
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value 3 : xj = Ej−1[xj]+Ii (10.4)
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generation of the underlying econom
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this behavior conforms to theory an
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Calibrating the parameters of a GAR
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where u is a uniformly distributed
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� Do we use the same random varia
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example from 15 March 2007 to 15 Ju
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This is Equation (10.3) applied to
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The solid curve shows the mapping o
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as no uncertainty on the outcome re
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� Convert all ¯zj(T ) to the sim
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is to subtract the mean of all hist
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the basis of a study of the behavio
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10.3.11 Equity Indices Many applica
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Historical behaviors are reproduced
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this. The discrepancy Φi(x) − ˆ
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ate 15 against the USD, CPI and GDP
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10.5 Conclusion Refined bootstrappi
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we do not choose a time constant ex
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11 Interest Rate Hedges Under the d
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a year), then the coupon C (annuali
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11.5.2 Notes Inputs: � Notional (
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ment bonds. Portfolios of bonds are
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these are uniformly distributed ove
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� The initial market value of the
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FX rate, CTA acc init . In the Mell
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and the target MTM (= ¯ T ) which
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The coupon rate Cn of the new bond
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12.9 Cash Flow from or to the Portf
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In a multi-period simulation, the e
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The sum of all book values equals t
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calculations. The yield y ′ i of
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After the external cash flow and th
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investment. The two main categories
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gains and losses is U acc final = U
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of individual time steps as simple
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The book value in accounting curren
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13.7 Accounting Results in Local Cu
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Another useful variable is the tota
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study of that rate, we use an avera
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14.2 Timing: The Simulation Period
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2. The final asset component which
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15 Foreign Exchange Risk 15.1 FX Ri
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This is the factor we apply to esti
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III Credit Risk 296
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18.5 Modeling Credit Risks of a Rei
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17 Introduction 17.1 Credit Risk in
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Modeling credit spreads and default
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isks are the most important ones, s
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18.2 Variables to Describe Credit R
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slowly reacting variable subject to
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(18.3) by using some standard value
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The likely yield Y (T ) of a bond i
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of sector rotation. The market some
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Now the dynamic model for X/C can b
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and used by practitioners and which
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observed dependence between credit
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19 Limitations of the Credit Risk M
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Table of Contents 20 Operational Ri
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4. Incident Management, i.e. detect
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V The Economic Balance Sheet 328
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List of Tables 25.1 The classes of
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22 Aggregating Risk Inputs to Balan
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23 Legal Entities and Parental Guar
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2. In August of 2004, in order to r
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The asset-liability portfolio is co
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ealize the economic value of this e
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25 The Valuation of Assets The SST
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Assets Valuation Fixed maturities I
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with non-material value are taken a
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Liability Valuation Underwriting re
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VI Solvency Capital Requirements 35
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VII Process Landscape 352
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31.3 Roles and Responsibilities . .
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List of Figures 29.1 Embedment of t
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27 Summary The ultimate objective o
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28 Structure of the Process Landsca
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29 Overview 29.1 The Swiss Solvency
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Process step Proposal for asset man
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ALM Committee � Sign-off on adequ
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30 The ALM Process 30.1 General Ove
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Asset modeling: The asset portfolio
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Inflation index The inflation in a
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Simulate future time series Post pr
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30.3.2 Reserve Modeling The purpose
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Process Steps The following process
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30.3.3 Liability Modeling The main
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Retrocession Information on interna
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Calculate gross reinsurance loss in
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Unearned business modeler: The unea
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Sign-off procedures Overall, the li
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FX rates This data entity is taken
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Roles and Responsibilities The role
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Noninvested assets Balance sheet In
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Financial controller � Provide da
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31.2 Process Steps The following st
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Risk management team ECS Scenario d
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32 Appendix 32.1 Sign-off Matrix 32
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Steering committee: Project sponsor
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Function Body Responsible for Steer
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Table of Contents 33 Summary 412 34
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List of Tables 36.1 Economic variab
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33 Summary This Part of the documen
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and Bloomberg. One of the purposes
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35 Architecture of SST Relevant Sys
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35.1.2 Application Change Managemen
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35.3 Revision Control The key to ga
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IT SYSTEM DATA BASE DOCUMENT, DATA
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Entity Time series used Risk-free y
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Application FED User Bloomberg Othe
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For investment indices, there is al
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The initial data to the module are
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module� data�input liability�
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GCDP Aggregation of event losses MA
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36.4.6 Planning and Business Projec
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in Igloo and are used in conjunctio
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flows for this simulation step. The
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37 Architecture of New Developments
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changing dimensions: Codes such as
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each method has a corresponding set
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38 Appendix We list the IT systems
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IX Final Remarks 450
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Acronyms A AAD Annual aggregate ded
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L LE Legal entity. LGD Loss given d
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Index Accident and health model bas
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economic variables, 218-235 equity
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invested assets and credit risk, 30
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detrending, 211 economic variables,
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Life & Health business, 105 Foreign
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ing first development year, 63 occu
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etrocession, 332-341 retrocession a
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finance re, see Financial reinsuran
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terest rate, 200 inflation, seasona
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dependency structure with life and
Page 494 and 495:
Purchase guarantee, see liquidity a
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Shareholder equity one year max cov
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natural catastrophe modeling, 88 Vu
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Bürgi, R. (2007). ALM Information
Page 502 and 503:
Gencyilmaz, C. (2007). Swiss Solven
Page 504 and 505:
Müller, U. A. (2007b). Modeling cr
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