Oberoi Realty Premium play - The Smart Investor

High High quality quality 

land land bank bank 

Integrated Integrated 

development 

development 

�� Higher 

�� Robust loan 

growth 

�� Lower credit 

cost 

productivity 

Premium 

brand 

�� 33% EPS 

CAGR 

Siddharth Bothra (SBothra@MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5407 

Sandipan Pal (Sandipan.Pal @MotilalOswal.com); Tel: +91 22 3982 5436 

Initiating Coverage | SECTOR: REAL ESTATE 

Oberoi Realty 

�� Improved 

Strong Strong 

monetization 

monetization 

visibility visibility 

RoA, RoE 

Multiple 

revenue 

streams 

Premium play

11 February 2011 

Oberoi Realty: Premium play 

Page No. 

Distinguished Mumbai-focused play ................................................................4-11 

Strong monetization visibility.......................................................................... 12-15 

ORL to post revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13 .................................... 16-17 

Prudent utilization of surplus cash could be a key trigger for the stock ...........18 

Key headwinds ................................................................................................ 19-21 

Valuation and view .......................................................................................... 22-26 

Background............................................................................................................27 

Annexure-I: Project location .......................................................................... 28-31 

Financials and valuation ................................................................................. 32-33 


2

BSE SENSEX S&P CNX BLOOMBERG REUTERS 

17,729 5,310 OBER IN OEBO.BO 

Y/E MARCH 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 

Net Sales (Rs b) 7.8 10.4 13.9 24.4 

EBITDA (Rs b) 4.7 6.0 8.0 15.6 

NP (Rs b) 4.6 5.2 6.5 11.3 

EPS (Rs) 14.0 15.8 19.8 34.6 

EPS Growth (%) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7 

BV/Share (Rs) 56.8 102.8 120.9 150.9 

P/E (x) 16.1 14.3 11.4 6.5 

P/BV (x) 4.0 2.2 1.9 1.5 

EV/EBITDA (x) 15.0 9.7 7.2 3.3 

EV/ Sales (x) 9.0 5.6 4.1 2.1 

RoE (%) 27.7 19.8 17.7 25.4 

RoCE (%) 28.9 24.4 24.4 35.1 

KEY FINANCIALS 

Shares Outstanding (m) 328.2 

Market Cap (Rs b) 73.9 

Market Cap (US$ b) 1.6 

Past 3 yrs. Sales Growth (%) 34.5 

Past 3 yrs. NP Growth (%) 79.5 

Dividend Payout (%) 7.0 

Dividend Yield (%) 0.3 

STOCK DATA 

16-W High/Low Range (Rs) 307/220 

Major Shareholders (as of December 2010) (%) 

Promoters 78.5 

Foreign 9.4 

Institutions 1.0 

Others 11.1 

Average Daily Turnover 

Volume ('000 shares) 1,397.3 

Value (Rs million) 400.4 

1/6/12 Month Rel. Performance (%) 0/-/- 

1/6/12 Month Abs. Performance (%) -8/-/- 

STOCK PERFORMANCE (SINCE 19 OCTOBER 2010) 

320 

290 

260 

230 


Oberoi Realty Sensex - Rebased 

200 

Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 

Premium play 

SECTOR: REAL ESTATE 


Rs225 Buy 

Oberoi Realty (ORL) is a Mumbai-focused real estate developer. It enjoys 

high brand equity and is able to command premium pricing across 

product segments. This coupled with low-cost land bank, sound 

financials, and high cash flow visibility make it an attractive play on the 

Mumbai market. The stock trades at 27% discount to FY12E NAV of Rs310. 

Buy for 38% upside. 

Distinguished Mumbai-focused play: ORL has ~21.4msf of fullypaid 

land in prime locations of Mumbai, suitable for large-format 

integrated development. It is a strong brand in Mumbai's RE market 

due to its (1) diversified products, (2) superior product quality and (3) 

management goodwill, which enable it to command a pricing premium 

over peers. Expect ORL to enjoy superior margins given low cost land 

parcels and integrated development projects in Mumbai. 

High visibility on land bank monetization: Most of ORL's RE 

projects are in micro-markets of Mumbai where the RE demand outlook 

is buoyant in the medium term. We expect ORL to successfully 

monetize its land bank over 6-7 years as its healthy cash position and 

hassle-free land imply certainty of execution. This provides high cash 

flow visibility, adding to its net cash surplus of ~Rs15b. Besides, ORL 

enjoys steady cash flow from its annuity assets, which insulate it 

from vagaries of the RE cycle. We estimate ORL to have surplus cash 

balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers a huge opportunity to further 

acquire value-augmenting projects. 

Triggers and headwinds to the stock: Key triggers: (1) Prudent 

use of surplus cash to augment land bank, (2) Broad-based recovery 

in commercial and retail markets, and (3) Resolution of pending issues 

(e.g. hotel properties in Juhu). Possible headwinds: (1) Land acquisition 

challenges due to high cost of land in Mumbai, and (2) Possible hurdles 

in JDA/SRA-linked projects. 

Stock at 27% discount to FY12E NAV; Buy: We expect ORL to post 

35% earnings CAGR over FY10-13. We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at 

Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share based on NPV-based 

valuation of its land bank. ORL stock is attractively valued at 11.4x 

FY12E EPS of Rs19.8, 6.5x FY13E EPS of Rs34.6 and ~27% discount 

to FY12E NAV. We expect ORL to trade at least at par to NAV due to 

(1) premium brand equity, (2) strong near term cash flow visibility, and 

(3) value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash. Buy with a target 

price of Rs310, 38% upside from current levels. 

3

Mumbai is the most resilient 

RE market in India in terms 

of returns on investment 

Medium to long term macro 

outlook for Mumbai RE to be 

buoyant for products with an 

attractive value proposition 


Distinguished Mumbai-focused play 


ORL has ~21.4msf of fully-paid land in prime locations of Mumbai, suitable for large-format 

integrated development. It is a strong brand in Mumbai's RE market due to its (1) diversified 

products, (2) superior product quality and (3) management goodwill, which enable it to 

command a pricing premium over peers. Expect ORL to enjoy superior margins given low 

cost land parcels and integrated development projects in Mumbai. 

Mumbai, the most resilient RE market 

Mumbai is the most resilient and rewarding RE market in India in terms of returns on 

investment, product positioning and depth of demand for RE development across segments 

and price points. After the global downturn, the Mumbai market was at the forefront of 

recovery. With steady demand, starting with affordable housing and eventually moving to 

the luxury housing vertical, property prices have not only rebounded, but surpassed the 

pre-downturn peaks in several micro-markets. 

However, the recent sharp price appreciation and a bloated supply pipeline has resulted in 

a cyclical downturn in key locations, particularly Central Mumbai. Still, we expect the 

medium to long term macro outlook for Mumbai RE to be buoyant for products with 

attractive value proposition. This is because Mumbai's fundamental growth catalysts remain 

unaltered: 

� Strong GDP growth, rapid urbanization and improving affordability 

� Mumbai's status as India's financial capital (contributing more than 5% of GDP) 

� Favorable demography with an expanding segment of young, upwardly mobile 

professionals 

� A large base of discerning, high-income customers. 

Mumbai - a lucrative RE market with superior return potential 

Source: Company/MOSL 

4

Hyderabad 

8% 

Chennai 

6% 



Between october-10 to September-11, Mumbai contributed ~25% of India's RE volume 

(number of units) and ~29% of RE capital value of top 7 cities of India. 

City-wise sale value (%) during Oct-10 to Sep-11 City-wise absorption volume (%) during Oct-10 to Sep-11 

Bangalore 

13% 

Pune 

12% 

NCR 

32% 

Mumbai 

29% 

Chennai 

6% 

Hyderabad 

4% 

Bangalore 

12% 

Pune 

18% 

NCR 

35% 

Mumbai 

25% 

ORL: An attractive Mumbai play 

We believe ORL offers an attractive play on the lucrative Mumbai RE opportunity given 

its following favorable factors: 

#1. High concentration of land bank in Mumbai 

#2. Proven track record, strong management goodwill 

#3. Low-cost land bank at prime locations, translating to superior margins 

#4. Leading integrated developer in Mumbai, boosting margins further. 

#1. High concentration of land bank in Mumbai 

Almost 94% of ORL's saleable area (~21.4msf) is in Mumbai with ~69% of its land bank 

located in prime locations in the western suburbs. Along with prime locations and synergies 

from integrated and a diversified product-mix, ORL's emphasis on contemporary design 

and quality construction helps it to enjoy premium value for its development. We believe 

ORL is well placed to benefit from the superior return potential of Mumbai market. 

94% of ORL's land bank is concentrated in Mumbai ORL's products straddle diverse segments 

Central 

Suburbs 

15% 

Island City 

10% 

Pune 

6% 

Western 

Suburbs 

69% 

Hospitality 

9% 

Retail 

4% 

Commercial 

20% 

Social infra 

9% 

Source: Liases Foras/MOSL 

Residential 

58% 


5

ORL has a proven track 

record and rich experience 

in the Mumbai RE market 

A strong management track 

record and transparent 

corporate structure make 

ORL a preferred developer 



#2. Proven track record, strong management goodwill 

ORL's promoters have a proven track record and rich experience in the Mumbai RE 

market, having delivered ~5msf of RE development in 33 projects over the past three 

decades. During the past couple of years alone, ORL delivered 2.2msf, indicating robust 

traction in execution. 

Key projects delivered by ORL 

Projects Location Type Year of delivery Area (msf) 

Plazo (Ghuman Villa) Juhu Residential Sep-01 0.02 

Rehabilitation Project Goregaon Residential May-02 0.06 

Beachwood House Juhu Residential Jan-05 0.03 

Crest Khar Residential May-06 0.02 

Seawind Juhu Residential Oct-06 0.02 

Oberoi Woods Goregaon Residential May-08 0.60 

Oberoi Springs Andheri Residential Jan-10 0.64 

Oberoi Townhouse Goregaon Residential Jun-10 0.04 

Oberoi Chambers Andheri Commercial May-04 0.09 

Commerz - I Goregaon Commercial Mar-08 0.40 

Oberoi Mall Goregaon Retail Mar-08 0.55 

The Westin Goregaon Hotel Apr-10 0.38 

Oberoi International School Goregaon School Nov-10 0.31 

Total 3.16 


ORL's integrated development and superior product positioning have given it a strong 

brand image. We believe ORL is well placed to capitalize the trend of customer preference 

for (1) integrated development, (2) quality construction and (3) goodwill of the developer. 

This explains why ORL has been consistently booking sales of ~455 units a year over the 

past five financial years. 

Strong management goodwill 

Lack of transparency and corporate governance issues are key concerns in the RE sector. 

We believe ORL is favorably placed in this regard given (a) transparency in land acquisition, 

(b) uncomplicated corporate structure and (c) developer mindset. 

(a) Transparency in land acquisition: The ORL management has demonstrated a prudent 

and transparent approach in acquiring its land. ORL has acquired ~140 acres across five 

projects since 1998. All the land parcels (a) are fully paid for, (b) have clear titles, and 

(c) enjoy transparent cost and ownership disclosures. 

(b) Uncomplicated corporate structure: ORL has a simple corporate structure with 

most of its land holding through wholly owned subsidiaries. We believe this transparent 

structure augurs well for better corporate governance. 

(c) Developer mindset: ORL has a relatively limited but high quality land bank, expected 

to get monetized over 6-7 years. Over the past 3-4 years, ORL focused on converting its 

land parcels into landmark developments instead of augmenting its land bank at unreasonable 

prices. We believe such a development mindset is reflected in its product quality and 

premium brand equity, which differentiates the company from the rest. 

6

� ORL holds the Garden City 

projects excluding 

Oberoi Mall. 

� Oberoi Mall Private Ltd 

holds Oberoi Mall. 

� Oberoi Constructions 

Private Ltd holds Andheri 

and Mulund properties. 

� Oasis Realty holds the 

Worli properties. 

� Siddhivinayak Realties 

Private Ltd holds the 

disputed Juhu Hotel. 

� Sangam City Township 

Private Ltd, a JV between 

ORL, DB Realty and the 

Avinash Bhosale group, 

holds the Pune project. 

Outsourcing non-core 

activities to reputed partners 

releases management 

bandwidth for core activities 

ORL’s average 

acquisition cost of land 

has been only ~Rs35m/acre 


ORL's corporate structure 

Oberoi 

Construction 

Private Ltd 

Siddhivinayak 

Realties 

Private Ltd 

Oberoi Mall 

Private Ltd 

Kingston 

Property 

Services 

Private Ltd 


Limited 

Sangam City 

Township 

Private Ltd 

Kingston 

Hospitality 

& Developers 

Private Ltd 

Expression 

Realty 

Private Ltd 


100% 100% 100% 36.7% 100% 100% 100% 

50% 100% 

Perspective 

Realties 

Private Ltd 

Oasis 


Unincorporated 

Unincorporated JV 

JV 

Zaco 

Aviation 


Low execution risk: ORL outsources most of its key projects, delegates non-core activities 

such as design and construction to long-term service providers. ORL has developed a 

strong relationship with internationally acclaimed architects like SCDA (Singapore), Bentel 

& Associates (South Africa), HOK (Los Angeles), and domestic contractors like L&T. 

We believe its outsourcing model mitigates the execution risk involved in large format 

projects and leaves its management free to pursue activities such as land acquisition and 

sales and marketing. 

#3. Low-cost land bank at prime locations, translating to superior margins 

ORL's management has been prudent in its land acquisition strategy. Over 1998-2005, 

ORL acquired four key land parcels for Rs4.7b: (1) ~84 acres at Goregaon Garden City, 

(2) ~24 acres for Andheri East Splendor, (3) ~7 acres for Andheri-West Springs and (4) 

~19 acres in Mulund. Its average acquisition cost of these city-centric land parcels has 

been ~Rs35m/acre. After 2005, Mumbai's land prices went through a strong up-cycle, 

impacting margins of most RE developers involved in land acquisition through the direct 

route. However, ORL is strongly placed with a low cost land bank that has monetization 

potential over the next 6-7 years. 

Low cost historical land bank 

Particulars Garden City, Oberoi Splendor, Oberoi Exotica, Oberoi Springs, 

Goregaon Andheri Mulund Andheri (W) 

Land area (acres) 84 24 19 7 

Land consideration (Rs m) 1,068 1,060 2,210 317 

Year of purchase 1998-2005 2005 2005 2005 

Cost of inherent FSI* (Rs/sf) 292 994 2,695 1,039 

* Doesn’t include benefit from incremental FSI from TDR, parking scheme and loading 

Triumph 


Private Ltd 

After 2005 ORL has not acquired land through the direct route but adopted a different 

approach to augment its land bank. In 2007, it entered into a joint development agreement 

(JDA) with a local developer (Sahana Developer) to develop the saleable area of a slum 

7

Land acquisition 

through the JDA/JV route 

renders opportunity to 

leverage on the brand 

Low land cost is attributable 

to historical acquisition 

over 1998-2005 

ORL is expected to post 

45-80% operating margins 

for its Mumbai-centric land, 

resulting in superior RoE 

Large integrated projects 

offer a superior product mix 

and product synergy 



rehabilitation project in Worli. The project offers ORL a lucrative proposition, since (1) 

ORL will have a 25-40% share in net revenue (net of construction and S&M costs) 

depending on actual realization of the project, (2) ORL hasn't incurred upfront capital 

expenditure (only a Rs3b refundable deposit, to be adjusted against revenue share), (3) 

the JDA partner is responsible for related SRA activities such as evacuation and 

rehabilitation construction (a significant portion of the work has been completed). 

In such an agreement, even in the most pessimistic scenario, ORL stands to profit. The 

agreement allows ORL to leverage its brand strength with minimal upfront capital 

investment and low operational and market risks. We expect ORL to clinch many such 

deals with similarly attractive propositions due to (1) its strong execution track-record and 

(2) premium branding, which make it a preferred partner for small and unorganised land 

owners. 

Low cost land parcels ensure superior margins 

ORL's existing land bank of 21.4msf (~130 acres) is located in Mumbai (western suburbs, 

Central Mumbai) and Pune, and is suitable for large format development. ORL has 

purchased land outright for most of its projects. We believe the management has been 

prudent in its land acquisition strategy. Except for Pune (which is still in the land aggregation 

stage) and Worli (where ORL has entered into a JDA), the remaining land parcels have 

been acquired over 1998-2005, at very lucrative prices. Large low-cost land parcels with 

extended monetization, and a huge appreciation of property prices over the past five years 

provide ORL with an opportunity to command superior profit margins in such projects. 

ORL's superior margins 

Particulars Garden City, Oberoi Splendor, Oberoi Exotica, Oasis Realty, 

Goregaon Andheri Mulund Worli 

Mode of land acquisition Outright Purchase Outright Purchase Outright Purchase JDA 

Year of purchase 1998-2005 2005 2005 2007 

Land area (acres) 84 24 19 3 

Land consideration (Rs m) 1,068 1,060 2,210 Nil 

Saleable area (msf) 11.2 3.1 3.2 2.1 

ORL's stake (%) 100 100 100 25-40* 

Land cost (Rs/sf) 95.6 341.9 691 NIL 

Avg. construction cost (Rs/sf) 

Other development costs (Rs/sf) 

3,500 3,500 3,000 6,000 

(Approvals/TDR/ Parking etc) 1,500 1,500 1,000 NIL 

Avg. Market price (Rs/sf) 9,500 10,500 7,500 28,000 

ORL's premium pricing (Rs/sf) 11,000 12,000 8,500 32,000 

ORL's margin (Rs/sf) 5,904 6,658 3,809 26,000 

ORL's margin (%) 54 55 45 81 

* Profit sharing ratio depending on sale realization Source: Company/MOSL 

#4. Leading integrated developer in Mumbai, boosting margins further 

ORL is one of the few integrated development players in Mumbai. Integrated development 

offers product synergies and pricing premuim, boosting margins further. 

Integrated development offers product synergies... 

Most of the ORL's land is suitable for large format development and situated in attractive 

city-centric locations which are increasingly gaining customers' preference. This helps 

ORL to develop large integrated projects with different product mixes such as schools, 

8

Value creation through 

large format development 

enables ORL to command 

premium pricing 


Integrated 

development 

example 


hospitals, malls and hotels. It allows the company to (1) position its products better, (2) 

leverage synergies between different asset classes and command premium pricing, and 

(3) capture strong RE demand at different price points in the project cycle. 

...and pricing premium 

ORL's integrated land development strategy has started paying off. Over the past 2-3 

years, after the early phase of developments, ORL has been receiving a strong response 

from customers for subsequent phases of monetization. We believe its transformation of a 

location from terra incognita to a destination development and synergies between the 

product-mixes of integrated development have boosted its brand image. While initial 

developments in its Garden City projects like Oberoi Mall, Commerz and Oberoi Woods 

have enhanced the image of Goregaon (E) as a preferred micro-market, its projects at 

JVLR, Andheri (E) (Splendor) have boosted demand for subsequent phases. Besides, its 

superior construction quality, on-time delivery track-record and quality management add 

to the value of its developments. All these factors contribute to ORL's premium pricing. 

Approach to land banks: creating value through integrated development 

Low cost large 

land parcel 

Uplifting micromarket's 

image and 

boosting RE demand 

Destination development 

in early phases 

Integrated 

projects 

Average land acquisition 

cost of Garden City 

project is ~Rs100/sf 

Product 

synergy 

Brand creation 

through superior 

offerings 

Garden City at Goregaon (E) 

emerged as a preferred 

destination 

Oberoi Mall, 

Commerz, 

Oberoi Woods 

Pricing premium 

Average 

realization at 

Garden City 

grew from 

Rs2,500/sf (2004) 

to Rs12,000/sf 

(currently) 


Garden City: Achieves landmark status in Goregaon, Mumbai 

A key example of integrated development has been its Oberoi Garden City projects, a 

mixed-use development in Goregaon (E), in Mumbai's western suburbs. ORL acquired 

~84 acres of land here for Rs1.07b between 1998-05. The project has saleable area of 

11.2msf of which ORL has already delivered projects on ~2.3msf with the development 

of Oberoi Woods (residential, 0.7msf), Commerz I (0.4msf), Oberoi Mall (0.55msf) and 

an international school (0.3msf). The project, located on the Western Express Highway, 

is beside a "no-development" green zone and offers a permanent view of greenery. The 

later phases of development will comprise residential, office/retail space, a hotel and 

social infrastructure such as a hospital and a school. Projects on ~5msf are ongoing and 

projects are being planned on the remaining 3.9msf. Garden City has achieved a status 

of destination project due its attractive location and benefits from integrated offerings. 

Consequently, we expect ORL's upcoming developments here to command premium 

pricing compared with its peers. 

9

Integrated development plan at Oberoi Garden City 

Completed 

projects 

Ongoing 

projects 

Planned 

projects 


Residential 

(~6.6msf) 


Woods, 

Townhouse 


Exquisite 

(Phases I and II) 


Exquisite 

(Phase III) 

Integrated layout of Oberoi Garden City project 


Commerz 

and Hotel 

Westin 


Commerz (II) 

- Phase (I) 

Western Express Highway 

Commerz (II) - 

Phase (II) 

Office Space 

(~3msf) 

Oberoi Garden City 

Retail 

(~0.6msf) 

Commerz I Oberoi Mall 

Commerz II 

(Phases I and II) 

Exquisite- 3 

Exquisite- 1 

Exquisite- 2 

Hosipital 

Hospitality 

(~0.4msf) 

The Westin 

Mumbai - 

Garden City 

Town House 

Educational 

Complex 

Social 

infrastructure 

(~1.6msf) 


International 

School 

Hospital and 

education 

complex 



Woods 


International 

School 


10

Key ongoing projects at Garden City 

Commerz (II)- Phase I and Phase II Exquisite- steady progress in construction 

Integrated development at Garden City is in an advanced stage of monetization 


Phase II site 

Phase I site 

� We expect phase I of Commerz-II to be operational by 

FY12-13, while phase II is likely to be ready by FY14. 

� ORL has already sold ~419 units in Exquisite I. Exquisite- 

I is likely to be delivered in FY12-13, while it plans to launch 

Exquisite II in 4QFY11. 

� We estimate ORL to complete the monetization of Garden 

City by FY16-17. 

� Once completed, the project is likely to generate ~Rs83b 

of total residential sales and ~Rs6b of steady-state annuity 

income. Garden City accounts for ~60% of ORL's GAV. 


Town house Oberoi International School 

Oberoi Mall (March 2008) 

Commerz I (March 2008) Oberoi Wood (May 2008) 


11

Hassle free land banks are 

suitably placed for faster 

monetization 

Strong residential sales and 

steady annuity income are 

expected to generate robust 

operating cash flow 


High visibility on land bank monetization 


Most of ORL's RE projects are in micro-markets of Mumbai where the RE demand outlook is 

buoyant in the medium term. We expect ORL to successfully monetize its land bank over 6- 

7 years as its healthy cash position and hassle-free land imply certainty of execution. This 

provides high cash flow visibility, adding to its net cash surplus of ~Rs15b. Besides, ORL 

enjoys steady cash flow from its annuity assets, which insulate it from vagaries of the RE 

cycle. We estimate ORL to have surplus cash balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers a huge 

opportunity to further acquire value-augmenting projects. 

Hassle-free land bank increases certainty of monetization 

We expect RE demand outlook in Mumbai to be buoyant in the medium term, especially 

for mid-income housing, attractively positioned products and preferred micro-markets like 

the western and central suburbs. This has witness further boost from rising demand for 

office space in such locations. About 84% of ORL's saleable area is in attractive citycentric 

areas of the western and central suburbs, which have potential to emerge as 

destination projects due to their large size and mixed use development. Most of the land is 

fully paid and available for development with approvals largely in place, which gives 

reasonable certainty to execution. These factors provide ORL with steady cash flow 

visibility over five years. 

Strong development pipeline to drive monetization 

Assets under sale model FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E 

Residential (msf) 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1 

Commercial (msf) - 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 

Retail (msf) - 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 

Total 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.3 

Leased assets (cumulative) 

Commercial (msf) 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.1 2.5 

Retail (msf) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 

Total 0.7 0.9 1.2 2.2 2.7 3.0 

Hotel (rooms) 269 269 269 269 314 314 

High visibility of cash flow (Rs b) 

Particulars FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E 

Residential sales 11.7 14.3 19.5 23.0 33.8 28.9 

Commercial and retail sales 0.0 1.1 2.8 7.2 6.3 1.9 

Rental income (commercial and retail) 0.9 1.2 1.7 3.3 4.3 5.0 

Hotel business 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 

Social infrastructure business 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.0 

Total inflow 13.2 17.4 25.1 34.8 46.1 37.0 

% contribution from rental income 12 12 11 13 13 17 

% contribution from residential sales 88 82 78 66 73 78 

Construction capex 5.8 10.2 10.5 10.5 9.3 4.6 

Residential 3.1 6.0 7.1 8.4 8.5 4.5 

Non-residential 2.7 4.2 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.1 

Operating expenses 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 

Net operating cash pre tax 7.1 6.8 14.1 23.6 35.8 31.4 

Tax expense 1.8 1.8 4.2 7.1 10.7 9.4 

Net operating cash post tax 5.3 5.0 9.9 16.5 25.1 22.0 


12

ORL's development plans are integrated in nature 



Project Name Status Location Saleable Expected GAV/Share Land cost 

area (msf) completion date (Rs) (Rs m) 

Goregaon (E) 10.5 223 1,060 

Exquisite-1 Ongoing Residential 1.4 Nov-13 30 

Exquisite-2 Ongoing Residential 1.3 Mar-14 37 

Exquisite-3 Ongoing Residential 2.5 May-14 37 

Townhouse/Garden City Completed Residential 0.0 Mar-10 2 

Commerz I Completed Commercial 0.4 Mar-08 16 

Commerz II – Phase I Ongoing Commercial 0.7 Mar-12 21 

Commerz II – Phase II Ongoing Commercial 1.7 Mar-12 41 

Oberoi Mall Completed Retail 0.6 Mar-08 22 

The Westin Ongoing Hotel 0.4 Mar-10 9 

International School Ongoing Social Infrastructure 0.3 Mar-10 

Education complex Planned Social Infrastructure 0.9 Apr-11 9 

Hospital Planned Social Infrastructure 0.4 Oct-10 

Andheri - East 3.1 34 317 

Splendor-1 Ongoing Residential 1.3 Dec-10 5 

Splendor-2 Ongoing Residential 0.3 Jun-12 6 

Oberoi Splendor-1 Ongoing Commercial 0.3 Feb-13 6 

Splendor IT Tower Planned Commercial 0.1 Aug-12 5 

Oberoi Splendor -2 Planned Commercial 0.7 May-13 10 

Splendor School Planned Social Infrastructure 0.4 Apr-11 2 

Mulund - West 3.2 78 2,200 

Exotica-1 Planned Residential 1.6 Aug-13 17 

Exotica-2 Planned Residential 1.6 Sep-13 61 

Worli 2.1 27 JDA* 

Oasis Ongoing Residential 1.5 Dec-14 20 

Oasis - Commercial Ongoing Commercial 0.2 Dec-12 2 

Oasis - Mall Planned Retail 0.1 Dec-12 4 

Oasis Planned Hotel 0.2 Dec-14 3 

Pune 1.3 14 In progress 

Sangam City Planned Residential 0.8 Dec-15 8 

Sangam City Planned Commercial 0.3 Dec-15 3 

Sangam City Planned Retail 0.3 Dec-15 3 

Juhu Planned Juhu 1.2 1 

Total 21.4 377 

* Refundable security desposit of Rs3b Source: Company/MOSL 

ORL is likely to be a 

key beneficiary of 

the commercial 

real estate recovery 

Commercial recovery to boost annuity cash flow 

ORL is likely to be a key beneficiary of recovery in the commercial and retail verticals, 

early signs of which are visible. While ORL's annuity income helps to compensate for the 

periodic volatility in residential sales, we estimate steady growth in revenue contribution 

from annuity assets, with (1) broad-based recovery in the commercial and retail businesses 

and (2) new projects becoming operational in the office, retail and hotel verticals over next 

two to three years. 

The commercial RE market has been showing early signs of recovery in key micromarkets. 

Mumbai, being a frontrunner in this recovery, has registered steady improvement 

in commercial leasing with ~10msf of lease transactions during 2010. Besides, in the past 

couple of years, demand has been shifting from central business districts (CBDs) like 

Nariman Point and Central Mumbai towards suburban business districts like Andheri and 

Goregaon. This is due to (1) exorbitant rentals and unavailability of Grade A office space 

in the CBDs and (2) improved infrastructure near the western and central suburbs and 

their proximity to the airport. 

13


Front-loaded 

cash flow offers 

investment comfort 

City centric 

commercial projects will 

witness strong demand 

We expect annuity income to 

generate ~Rs1.6b in FY11 

(v/s Rs0.8b in FY10), 

~Rs2b in FY12 and 

~Rs2.9b in FY13 


Cash flow during FY11-16 is expected to contribute 67% of GAV 

We expect ORL to monetize its land bank over 6-7 years, providing it with strong frontended 

cash flow unlike many RE companies. Our NAV estimate suggests ORL will 

derive ~67% of its GAV from next five years cash flow, which is significantly high 

compared with its peers. Front-loaded valuation makes ORL one of the most attractive 

plays in the RE sector. 

Annual value contribution (%) 

8 

10 


Expect ORL commercial projects to witness strong response 

ORL has a strong pipeline of annuity projects of ~5.4msf (~1msf already operational and 

~4.4msf to be operational over 3-4 years) largely located in the western suburbs. ORL's 

2.4msf of commercial space in the Goregaon Garden City, Commerz II -Phase1 (0.7msf) 

and Phase2 (1.7msf) are likely to become operational in FY12 and FY13 respectively. We 

expect the projects to attract a strong response due to (a) a robust demand outlook, driven 

mainly by MNCs, law firms (on account of the shifting of the High Court to the western 

suburbs) and film studios (proximity to Film City) in Goregaon, (b) limited supply of grade- 

A office space in the vicinity and (c) proximity to hotels and the airport. ORL's strong 

client base with its expansion plan will provide further impetus to the leasing momentum. 

We estimate the company will generate ~Rs1.6b in FY11 (v/s Rs0.8b in FY10), ~Rs2b in 

FY12 and ~Rs2.9b in FY13 from its commercial, retail, hotel and school projects. 

Strong momentum expected in annuity income 

15 

20 

Till FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Capitalized 

value post 

FY18 

Annuity Asset (msf) Commercial/RetailSale (msf) 

Hotel Rooms (no) Annuity Revenue(Rs b) 

269 269 269 269 

2.9 

2.0 

2.2 

1.6 

0.7 

0.0 

0.9 

0.2 

1.2 

0.3 0.5 

15 

4.7 

9 

2.7 

2 

0.4 

3.0 

21 

394 394 

6.2 

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 

5.9 

0.3 


14



Multiple revenue streams provide resilience to the down cycle 

ORL's strongly diversified product-mix (the residential vertical constitutes ~60% of its 

land bank, and 40% is divided among commercial, retail, hospitality and social infrastructure 

projects such as schools and hospitals), means that it is poised to generate a quality mix of 

revenue streams. ORL has maintained a robust balance in its cash flows by following sale 

and lease models for its ~5.4msf of commercial/retail assets. This provides it with multiple 

revenue streams, making it resilient to RE cyclicality. 

Multiple revenue streams insulate ORL from a down cycle Annuity income mix (Rs m) 

0.7 

A balanced cash flow 

mix offers resilience 

during a down cycle 

Annuity income (Rsb) 

RE sales (Rsb) 

3.5 

0.8 

7.0 

1.6 

8.8 

2.0 

11.8 

2.9 

21.5 

FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E 

We expect the company 

to generate ~Rs10b 

of operating cash flow 

by FY12 

288 

450 

Commercial-Lease Retail-Lease Hotel Social Infra 

325 

508 

315 

611 

559 

497 

662 

641 

235 

1,050 

695 

729 

FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E 

396 


Surplus cash to augment land bank potential 

We expect ORL's limited land bank of ~21.4msf, to take 6-7 years to be monetized. 

Hence, going forward, the company is expected to acquire a significant amount of land to 

maintain its growth momentum. In this connection, the comfort factor is that ORL has 

~Rs15b of surplus cash on its balance sheet. Moreover, robust cash flow visibility from its 

ongoing/upcoming projects (we expect the company to generate ~Rs10b of operating 

cash flow by FY12) and zero gross debt provide ORL with a healthy financial position to 

augment its land bank through value accretive acquisitions. While historically the company 

acquired land through outright purchase, it is also evaluating opportunities in the 

redevelopment vertical and through the JDA route, in which, we expect, ORL has strong 

success potential due to its premium brand and superior execution track record. 

Visibility of strong operating cash flow an opportunity to acquire value-accretive projects 

Free cash inflow (Rs b) 

Cummulative till previous year (Rs b) 

5 

5 

Net cash as on 

March 

15 

10 

5 

20 

5 

15 

IPO proceeds FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E 

25 

5 

20 

35 

10 

25 

51 

16 

35 


15

Exquisite-I (Garden City, 

Goregaon) and Splendor-I 

(Andheri E) are primary 

revenue drivers for FY11 

We expect the Mulund and 

Worli projects to contribute 

significantly from FY12 


ORL to post revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13 


We expect ORL's revenue to grow from Rs7.8b in FY10 to Rs24.4b in FY13, implying 

FY10-13 CAGR of ~46%. The growth will be led mainly by revenue from residential 

projects and steady annuity income growth from its commercial, retail, hotel and other 

social infrastructure verticals. In FY11, Exquisite-I (Garden City, Goregaon) and Splendor- 

I (Andheri-E) will be primary revenue drivers (contributing ~70% of revenue). We expect 

its projects in Mulund (Exotica) and Worli (Oasis) to contribute significantly from FY12. 

Expect revenue CAGR of 46% over FY10-13 

0.8 

Key projects expected to contribute to revenue* 

191% 

2.4 

117% 

5.1 

Revenue (Rs b) Grow th Rate 

-17% 

4.3 


ORL's primary focus has historically been residential development. However, we expect 

steady revenue growth from non-residential projects as ORL has a rich pipeline of nonresidential 

projects (~8msf) and annuity projects (~5.4msf) (~4.4msf will be operational 

over 3-4 years) largely located in Mumbai's western suburbs. We expect steady growth in 

revenue from its non-residential projects, going forward, with (1) a broad-based recovery 

in commercial and retail businesses and (2) new projects becoming operational in the 

office, retail and hotel verticals. We estimate the contribution from its non-residential 

projects to increase from 11% in FY10 to 15% in FY11, 24% in FY12 and 26% in FY13. 

84% 

7.8 

32% 34% 

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E 

Project Name Location Asset Class Saleable / Expected total Revenue GAV/share 

Leasable revenue (Rsm) Contribution (Rs m) (Rs) 

10.4 

13.9 

area (msf) FY11 FY12 

Oberoi Spring Andheri West Residential 0.64 6,911 855 - 1 

Townhouse/Garden City Goregaon-East Residential 0.04 738 360 378 2 

Splendor-1 Andheri - East Residential 1.28 13,895 3,203 - 5 

Exquisite-1 Goregaon - East Residential 1.37 18,545 4,088 5,433 30 

Splendor-2 Andheri - East Residential 0.29 3,345 319 905 6 

Exquisite-2 Goregaon - East Residential 1.33 21,216 - 733 37 

Exotica-1 Mulund - West Residential 1.62 14,355 - 1,337 20 

Exotica-2 Mulund - West Residential 1.58 15,299 - 332 17 

Oasis Worli Residential 0.54 19,647 - 1,563 37 

Commerz I Goregaon-East Commercial 0.365 315 497 16 

Oberoi Mall Goregaon-East Retail 0.553 611 662 22 

The Westin Goregaon (E) Hotel 269 rooms 559 641 9 

76% 

24.4 

10,309 12,480 201 

* Only contribution from larger projects Source: Company/MOSL 

We expect a steady increase 

in revenue contribution from 

the non-residential vertical 

16

Revenue: non-residential verticals to increase contribution (FY11-13) 

Retail 

6% 

Commercial 

3% 


Hotel 

5% 

Social 

Infra 

1% 

EBITDA margins are 

expected to improve to 

64% due to the high-margin 

Worli project 

Net margin is expected to 

decline from 58% in FY10 

to 47% in FY13 mainly due 

to a higher tax rate 

Residential 

85% 

Commercial 

11% 

Retail 

6% 

Hotel 

5% 

Social 

Infra 

2% 


ORL to post earnings of 35% CAGR over FY10-13 

We expect 35% CAGR in ORL's PAT, from Rs4.6b in FY10 to Rs11.3b in FY13. This will 

be driven by (1) strong contribution from the residential vertical, and (2) higher rental 

income with new properties becoming operational. Historically, ORL has enjoyed high 

EBITDA margins due to its presence in attractive locations and its ability to command a 

premium. We expect ORL's EBITDA margins will improve from 60% in FY10 to 64% in 

FY13 due to (1) monetization of later stages of integrated development, which offers 

higher realization, and (2) contribution from its Worli project. However, net margin could 

decline from 58% in FY10 to 47% in FY13 mainly due to (1) a higher tax rate after the 

abolition of 80IB, and (2) possible debt finance which could invite interest costs, hitherto 

unseen in ORL's financial statements. 

EBITDA margin to increase after contribution from Worli project 

0.4 

52% 

1.2 

50% 

2.6 

2.5 

Expect net profit CAGR of 36% over FY10-13 

Residential 

76% 

4.7 

Retail 

5% 

Commercial 

16% 

Residential 

74% 

FY11 FY12 FY13 

44% 

EBITDA(Rsb) EBITDA Margin 

58% 

60% 

58% 

6.0 

Hotel 

3% 

Social 

Infra 

2% 



43% 

0.4 

PAT(Rsb) 

NET Margin 

33% 

0.8 

58% 

3.0 

59% 58% 

2.5 


4.6 

50% 

5.2 

58% 

8.0 

47% 

6.5 

64% 

15.6 

47% 

11.3 


17

Value unlocking is 

expected from deployment 

of surplus cash 

ORL is well placed to 

leverage the up-cycle of the 

commercial/retail vertical 



Prudent utilization of surplus cash could be a key trigger 

for the stock 

Key triggers for the stock are: (1) ORL's prudent use of surplus cash to augment its land 

bank, (2) broad-based recovery in the commercial and retail market, and (3) traction in 

pending issues (hotel properties in Juhu) and enhancement of incentives in existing projects 

(Worli and Pune). 

Prudent use of surplus cash to augment land bank 

Despite a high quality land bank, ORL faces a risk of limited long-term potential of its land 

parcels. However, ORL has one of the most attractive balance sheets among RE companies 

with ~Rs15b of surplus cash. Moreover, its ongoing and upcoming project pipeline provide 

with a strong cash flow visibility over the next 5-6 years. We estimate an incremental net 

cash inflow of Rs10b by FY12 (total surplus cash balance estimated at Rs25b by FY12). 

We believe a judicious deployment of this surplus cash in value accretive land acquisition 

would be a key trigger for the stock. 

Broad-based recovery in the commercial, retail market 

ORL has ~1msf of operational assets in the commercial and retail segments along with 

~4.4msf of projects in the pipeline, which are to be operational over 3-4 years. Therefore, 

with the ongoing recovery in commercial RE, we believe ORL is well placed to leverage 

on the up-cycle of the commercial/retail vertical, which would favorably impact its annuity 

income. 

Traction in pending issues (hotel properties in Juhu), enhancement of 

incentives in existing projects (Worli and Pune) 

The ORL management indicated that OCPL (ORL's 100% subsidiary), through its joint 

venture SRPL, entered into a purchase agreement with Tulip Hospitality Services in 2005 

for a six-acre hotel property in Juhu with ORL's share of the development area being 

~1.3msf. But the purchase agreement is under dispute and has been referred to for 

arbitration. We value the property at Rs675m, which is the amount paid by the company. 

Therefore, a positive outcome of the arbitration in favor of ORL would be value accretive 

for it. Similarly, a possible increase in saleable area in its Worli project (based on higher 

FSI allowance for additional land) and the Pune project (since ORL is in the process of 

land aggregation), would have a positive impact on its NAV. 

18

Increasing land price in 

Mumbai could be a key 

headwind for ORL’s land 

acquisition plans 

ORL’s strong surplus cash 

renders the ability to 

acquire value accretive land 


Key headwinds 


We believe that the key risks for the company are (1) challenges in land acquisition due to 

increasing land costs in Mumbai, (2) possible operational hurdles in JDA/SRA-linked 

projects, and (3) over dependence on Mumbai market. 

Increasing land prices could exert pressure on margins 

Land prices in Mumbai have appreciated sharply over the past 4-5 years, exerting pressure 

on developers' margins. ORL has a limited land bank of ~21msf, which we expect will 

take 6-7 years to monetize. In the near to medium term, we don't find cause for concern 

due to replenishing of the land bank, but ORL needs to focus on augmenting its development 

potential significantly to replicate its growth momentum in the long term. ORL's existing 

land bank is historical and its attractive acquisition cost is mainly attributed to the pre-2005 

RE market, which was before the sharp upswing in prices. After 2007, ORL made no 

meaningful land acquisition. The company also doesn't have established expertise in the 

redevelopment business, which is a key land acquisition route in Mumbai city. Hence, the 

rising land price could be a visible headwind for ORL's land acquisition plans. 

Sharp increase in land price visible in recent NTC mill auctions 

960 

1,536 

Jupiter Mill 

(Mar-05) 

Rsm/acre Rs/sf for 2.5x FSI Rs/sf for 4x FSI 

918 

1,469 

Apollo Mills 

(Jun-05) 

1,580 

2,528 

Mumbai 

Textile (Jun- 

05) 

2,109 

3,375 

Source: Industry/MOSL 

What mitigates the risk 

ORL has one of the most cash rich balance sheets among RE companies with ~Rs15b of 

surplus cash. Besides, with strong monetization visibility from its ongoing and upcoming 

projects, ORL is likely to generate robust operating cash flow over 6-7 years. We estimate 

ORL will generate a surplus cash balance of Rs25b by FY12, which offers it a huge 

opportunity to acquire value-accretive projects. 

Besides, ORL is better off than other its Mumbai peers, who have entered several high 

value land transactions and already leveraged themselves. Hence they are likely to curtail 

land acquisition plans in the near term. Consequently, ORL is well placed to capture the 

opportunity to acquire land at reasonable costs. 

551 

Elphinstone 

Mill (Jul-05) 

3,356 

5,369 

877 

Kohinoor Mill 

(Jul-05) 

7,588 

12,141 

1,983 

Poddar Mill 

(Jul-10) 

6,880 

11,008 

1,798 

Bharat Mill 

(Aug-10) 

19

A stronger balance sheet 

compared with its peers and 

a market slowdown will offer 

an opportunity to acquire 

land at reasonable costs 

Possible operational risk 

at its SRA-linked project 

in Worli has vastly 

been mitigated 

with steady progress 

A lack of market 

diversification exposes 

ORL to the risk of relying on 

a single RE market 


Comparative financial strengths of RE developers in Mumbai 

-15 -15 



5 4 

Peninsula 

** 

-2 

Gross Debt (Rs b) Net Debt (Rs b) 

DB 


2 


*As on Mar-09 (DRHP data); ** As on Mar-10 Source: Company/MOSL 

Operational hurdles in key projects could have a negative impact 

ORL has highlighted operational complications in its key projects, which could be a major 

headwind for it. Its ~2.1msf mixed-use Worli land (Oasis) could suffer from operational 

and regulatory uncertainties relating to SRA projects and dependence on JDA partners. 

Its Pune project (Sangam City) is yet to receive requisite development approvals since 

ORL is in the land aggregation stage. We believe defaults or delays could have a negative 

impact on its value, since the two projects contribute ~11% of GAV. 


ORL's developable area in Worli is in the free-sale area of the SRS project and the land is 

free from encumbrances. The project has been issued a Letter of Intent (LOI) and 

rehabilitation work is on. Hence the project has overcome a significant operation hurdle 

and has limited execution challenges. 

Dependence on western Mumbai 

Almost 94% of ORL's land bank and over 96% of its GAV emerges from its Mumbai 

projects, with the western suburbs (projects in Goregaon and Andheri) contributing ~68% 

of its GAV. This makes it over-dependent on the RE market of the western suburbs. The 

absence of market diversification exposes ORL to vagaries of a single RE market. The 

recent price appreciation in Mumbai's residential market has resulted in a slow sales 

across locations, which could have a negative impact on ORL's monetization velocity and 

ability to command premium pricing. 


ORL's positioning offers comfort even during the torpidity in RE demand due to: 

33 

Indiabulls 

RE 

a) Attractive locations, superior quality make ORL's products preferable: All 

ORL's projects are in attractive city-centric locations. The projects have good ambience, 

greenery and facilities emerging from the product-mix such as schools, hospitals, malls 

and hotels in the same land parcel. This enhances a project's attraction and makes it a 

preferred destination for home buyers. Besides, ORL's quality construction and premium 

offering increase salability. 

10 

8 

Orbit ** 

7 

41 

HDIL 

38 

29 

Lodha * 

27 

20

Product positioning, 

attractive location, low cost 

land and better holding 

capacity offer comfort 



b) Strong financial position mitigates execution risk: Slow RE demand in Mumbai 

can be attributed to buyers' concerns about possible execution challenges developers 

could face in the light of a financially tight market. The sharp appreciation of Mumbai 

property prices also contributed to slow RE demand. However, ORL's zero-debt, 

surplus-cash position would mitigate buyers' concerns. ORL's established track record 

and strong management goodwill ensure on-time delivery and uninterrupted execution. 

Macro economic risks 

We have assumed 5% CAGR from FY11 for all projects across cities. However, a decline 

in property prices, rise in inflation and interest rate, and change in government regulation 

could have a significant impact on our NAV estimate. Due to lack of predictability of such 

events we have not incorporated such impacts. 

21

Mulund 

(W) 

21% 

Expect ORL to trade at 

FY12 NAV of Rs310 

Residential projects 

contribute ~50% of GAV 

while ~36% comes from 

commercial/retail properties 

Andheri 

(E) 

9% 

Worli 

7% 


Pune 

4% 

Valuation and view 


We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share based on 

an NPV-based method of valuing its land bank. We expect ORL to trade at par to our 

estimated FY12 NAV due to (1) value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash, (2) strong 

near term cash flow visibility and (3) premium brand equity. Our one year forward target 

price for ORL is Rs310. We expect ORL to post 35% earnings CAGR over FY10-13. 

ORL is attractively valued at 11.4x FY12E EPS of Rs19.8 and 6.5x FY13E EPS of Rs34.6 

and ~27.4% discount to our target price of Rs310. Buy. 

FY12 NAV calculation 

Rs m NAV/share (Rs) % GAV 

Residential 73,011 222 59 

Commercial (Lease) 25,609 78 21 

Commercial (Sale) 8,289 25 7 

Retail (Lease) 7,106 22 6 

Retail (Sale) 2,047 6 2 

Hotels 3,494 11 3 

Infra Business+Land holding 4,164 13 3 

Gross Asset Value 123,720 377 100 

Add: Cash 15,000 46 12 

Less: Other Op Exp 9,898 30 8 

Tax 27,136 83 22 

Net Asset Value 101,686 310 82 


NAV calculation: Key assumptions 

1. Our NAV estimate factors in development plans that will be executed over 6-7 years. 

2. 5% CAGR in RE prices across cities and verticals (residential, commercial and retail). 

3. 4% CAGR in construction cost for all verticals. 

4. Steady state occupancy rates of 90% in the commercial and retail segments. 

5. Steady state occupancy rates of 70% in the hospitality segments. 

6. Cap rate of 11% in the commercial, retail and hospitality verticals. 

7. WACC of 14%. 

Western suburbs contribute ~68% Commercial/retail verticals contribute ~Rs130/sh to ORL's GAV of Rs377/sh 

Goregaon 

(E) 

59% 

222 

Residential 

78 

Commercial 

(Lease) 

25 22 6 11 13 

Commercial 

(Sale) 

Retail (Lease) 

Retail (Sale) 

Hotels 

Infra 

Business+Land 

holding 

46 30 

Add: Cash 

Less: Other Op 

Exp 

83 

Tax 

310 

NAV 


22

Value unlocking from 

surplus cash could drive 

growth potential beyond the 

existing land bank 

An RoE of 22% and 0.2x 

(of cash balance) leverage 

could render ~37% premium 

to ORL’s book value of cash 

at Rs46/share 

ORL’s brand equity makes it 

a preferred partner in 

(1) redevelopment and 

(2) joint-development 

projects 



What could push the stock to trade above NAV 

We estimate ORL's FY12 NAV at Rs310/share and FY13 NAV at Rs342/share. Our one 

year forward target price for ORL is Rs310 (at par with its FY12NAV). However, we 

follow an NPV-based NAV approach to value RE companies based on their land banks, 

which captures value emerging from their existing development potential only. In this 

regard, we believe ORL could trade at a premium to its FY12NAV due to its (1) value 

unlocking potential of its huge surplus cash and (2) strong brand equity, which helps it to 

command premium pricing power. 

Value unlocking potential of huge surplus cash: ORL has one of the most cash rich 

balance sheets among RE companies with zero gross debt. As on date, the company has 

~Rs15b of surplus cash on its balance sheet.. Besides, with strong monetization visibility 

from its ongoing and upcoming projects, ORL is expected generate healthy free cash flow 

over 6-7 years. We estimate an incremental net cash inflow of Rs10b by FY12 (enhancing 

the surplus cash balance to Rs25b by FY12) after addressing its requirement for construction 

capex, operating and tax expenses. We believe such financial strength offers opportunity 

of value-accretive land acquisitions to drive growth potential beyond the land bank. 

Despite the large amounts of idle cash on its books, ORL has had a robust RoE (average 

RoE of 24.7% over FY08-10) due to its (1) premium pricing and (2) low cost land, leading 

to superior margins. Besides, ORL's zero debt scenario offers tremendous potential to 

play on leverage. This speaks volumes about its value unleashing potential through 

deployment of surplus funds in high RoE projects. Our NPV-based NAV estimate values 

net cash on books of ~Rs15b at Rs46/share. However, the acquisition of projects with 

attractive RoE could add to value accretion beyond its book value. With an RoE assumption 

of 22% and 0.2x (of cash balance) leverage, surplus cash could be valued at Rs63/share 

or ~37% premium to its book value of Rs46/share. This value unlocking potential explains 

why we expect ORL to trade at a premium to its NAV. 

Surplus cash per share sensitivity to RoE and leverage (Rs) 

If surplus cash With leverage of (x) 

gives RoE of (%) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 

20 56 58 59 60 61 

22 60 62 63 65 66 

24 64 66 68 70 72 

26 69 71 73 75 78 


Strong brand equity, premium pricing power: ORL has focused mainly on the mid 

income housing segment and created a premium positioning within this market. This is due 

to (a) strong brand equity, (b) integrated product positioning in attractive locations, and (c) 

superior product quality. However, recently the company has also entered into premium 

projects at Worli through a JDA model, where its brand equity has enabled it to acquire 

high quality land at an attractive proposition. We believe its premium brand equity makes 

ORL a preferred partner for (1) redevelopment and (2) joint-development projects, which 

augur positively for value-accretive project acquisitions going forward. 

23

The stock is exposed to 

limited down side risk in the 

event of a price correction 

20% price correction 

in developement projects 

to have only 14% 

impact on NAV 


Sensitivity of NAV to change in realizations (Rs/share) 


Even with 20% drop from assumed price, stock is 'in the money' 

Over the last one year, Mumbai's residential prices has appreciated sharply. This has 

resulted in a huge volume slowdown across Mumbai's residential micro-markets. However, 

we consider this slowdown a short-term phenomenon emerging from the cyclical nature 

of the sector. We believe medium-term growth prospects for the RE sector in Mumbai is 

robust due to (a) huge inherent demand in asset classes, (b) much-hyped oversupply 

pipeline on paper and limited physical supply of completed projects and (c) all the macroeconomic 

fundamentals being unaltered for the market. 

However, we have assumed realistic price and absorption schedules for ORL’s projects 

considering an ongoing slowdown in the market. In this regard, we have also analyzed the 

sensitivity of the stock due to a possible price correction. However, we believe this price 

correction, if any, is likely to impact the residential vertical only, since the ongoing lease 

rentals in the commercial and retail verticals, in our opinion, has bottomed out and is in the 

stabilization phase with visible recovery in these verticals. 

In our sensitivity analysis we have assumed a price correction across ORL's (a) residential 

projects and (b) commercial/retail projects under the sale model, and we have maintained 

our base case lease rental assumption for commercial/retail projects under the lease model. 

Our study suggests that with a price correction of 20% for its projects under the sale 

model ORL's FY12 NAV would be down to Rs267/share (~14% from the base case 

NAV of Rs310/share), implying an upside potential of ~19% at current prices. 

Change in realization -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 

Residential 169 196 222 249 276 

Commercial (Lease) 78 78 78 78 78 

Commercial (Sale) 19 23 25 31 36 

Retail (Lease) 22 22 22 22 22 

Retail (Sale) 5 5 6 7 8 

Hotels 11 11 11 11 11 

Infra Business+Land holding 12 12 13 12 12 

Gross Asset Value 315 347 377 410 441 

Add: Cash 46 46 46 46 46 

Less: Other Op Exp 25 28 30 33 35 

Tax 69 76 83 90 97 

Net Asset Value 267 289 310 333 355 

% change in NAV (13.9) (7.1) - 7.1 14.6 

Sensitivity of NAV to price and WACC (Rs/share) 

WACC 

Change in realization -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 

13% 276 298 320 342 364 

14% 267 289 310 333 355 

15% 258 280 302 324 346 

FY12E EPS (Rs) 15.8 17.9 19.8 22.2 24.2 

24

Key assumptions in our NAV estimate (Rs) 



We believe ORL’s limited downside risk to a price correction would be primarily due to its 

annuity projects which render it a strong support during a downcycle.With the recovery of 

commercial vertical, we expect its annuity properties to witness a strong upside going 

forward. 

Moreover, ORL has low cost land bank and enjoys a superior margins across projects. We 

belive this provides with a huge flexibility to cut prices without significant impact on its 

margins and achieve higher sales velocity. Our sensitivity analysis doesn’t capture the 

upside risk arising out of price rationalizations due to its subjectivity. 

We consider the company to be an attractive bet with (a) its ability to leverage the buoyancy 

of the Mumbai RE market and (b) limited impact from market slowdown. 

Projects Product Type Location Saleable Area (msf) Realization (FY11) Cost/sf Completion 

Splendor-1 Residential Andheri - East 1.28 14,000 3,200 FY11 

Exquisite-1 Residential Goregaon - East 1.37 14,000 3,500 FY13 

Splendor-2 Residential Andheri - East 0.29 11,000 3,200 FY14 


Exotica-1 Residential Mulund - West 1.62 8,000 3,000 FY15 

Exotica-2 Residential Mulund - West 1.58 8,000 3,000 FY17 


Oasis Residential Worli 0.54 32,000 5,500 FY16 

Sangam City Residential Pune 0.77 5,500 1,700 FY16 

Oasis - Commercial Commercial Sale Worli 0.08 30,000 5,000 FY14 

Oberoi Splendor-1 Commercial Sale Andheri - East 0.32 9,500 3,000 FY14 

Oberoi Splendor -2 Commercial Sale Andheri - East 0.71 9,500 3,000 FY15 

Sangam City Commercial Sale Pune 0.28 7,000 1,700 FY17 

Commerz I Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 0.37 120 3,000 FY08 

Commerz II – Phase I Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 0.73 110 3,000 FY12 

Commerz II – Phase II Commercial Lease Goregaon-East 1.66 110 3,000 FY13 

Oasis - Mall Retail Sale Worli 0.04 30,000 5,000 FY14 

Sangam City Retail Sale Pune 0.28 7,000 1,800 FY16 

Oberoi Mall Retail Lease Goregaon-East 0.55 100 2,800 FY08 

The Westin Hotel Goregaon-East 269 7,000 5,500 FY10 

Oasis Hotel Worli 45 10,000 6,000 FY15 


25

Comparative valuation 

ORL is trading at 27% discount to FY12 NAV ORL is trading at 34% discount to FY13 NAV 

HDIL 

IBREL 

Unitech 

-62 -63 -59 

Real Estate: Comparative valuations 


Mah Life 

NAV Prem. / Disc. (%) 

Anant Raj 

Brigade 

-47 -46 -45 

DLF 

-34 

Phoenix 



Purvankara 

-29 -27 -22 

Godrej 

Prop 

-16 



Company Rating CMP Mcap FY12 FY13 TP* Up- EPS P/E P/B RoE 

(Rs) (Rs b) NAV NAV (Rs) side (Rs) (x) (x) (%) 

(Rs) (Rs) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E 

DLF Buy 242 415 367 397 338 39.5 10.8 12.6 22.3 19.2 1.5 1.5 6.3 7.3 

Unitech Buy 38 92 93 107 61 60.0 3.0 4.1 12.7 9.2 0.9 0.9 6.5 8.3 

IBREL Buy 107 43 256 291 166 55.0 5.5 6.9 19.5 15.5 0.4 0.4 2.1 2.6 

HDIL UR 129 53 348 NA NA NA 21.2 25.1 6.1 5.1 0.6 0.6 9.8 10.9 

Anant Raj Buy 99 29 185 200 150 51.4 6.6 7.9 15.1 12.6 0.8 0.7 5.3 6.0 

Phoenix Mills Buy 184 27 258 288 260 41.3 6.6 7.8 27.9 23.6 1.6 1.5 5.7 6.4 

Mah Life Buy 314 13 593 604 453 44.3 32.2 43.5 9.8 7.2 1.2 1.3 12.0 14.1 

Brigade Buy 95 11 172 197 148 55.3 12.0 16.1 7.9 5.9 1.0 0.9 12.1 14.8 

Puravankara Neutral 105 22 135 155 124 18.0 7.9 9.1 13.3 11.5 1.4 1.3 10.5 11.0 

Peninsula Neutral 59 16 100 105 84 42.5 11.9 13.2 5.0 4.5 1.2 1.0 28.3 29.4 

GPL Neutral 576 40 686 777 700 21.5 16.3 39.5 35.2 14.6 4.4 3.4 13.1 26.1 

Oberoi Realty Buy 225 74 310 342 310 37.8 15.8 19.8 14.3 11.4 2.2 1.9 19.8 17.7 

*TP: Target price Source: Company/MOSL 

Unitech 

IBREL 

HDIL 

-65 -63 -62 

Brigade 

-52 

NAV Prem. / Disc. (%) 

Anant Raj 

Mah Life 

Peninsula 

DLF 

Phoenix 



Purvankara 

Godrej 

Prop 

-50 -48 -44 -39 -36 -34 -32 -26 

26

ORL has undertaken 

~5msf of RE development 

across 33 projects 

� ORL holds the Garden City 

projects excluding 

Oberoi Mall. 

� Oberoi Mall Private Ltd 

holds Oberoi Mall. 

� Oberoi Constructions 

Private Ltd holds Andheri 

and Mulund properties. 

� Oasis Realty holds the 

Worli properties. 

� Siddhivinayak Realties 

Private Ltd holds the 

disputed Juhu Hotel. 

� Sangam City Township 

Private Ltd, a JV between 

ORL, DB Realty and the 

Avinash Bhosale group, 

holds the Pune project. 

ORL has a 21.4msf land 

bank in Mumbai and Pune 


Background 

ORL's land bank: Location wise (MSF) 


Oberoi Realty Limited is a Mumbai-based real estate developer. It was incorporated in 

May 1998 as Kingston Properties Private Ltd. The name of the company changed to 

Oberoi Realty Private Ltd in October 2009. It was converted into a public limited company 

in December 2009. ORL's primary focus is to develop residential property but it has 

diversified into retail, commercial, hospitality and social infrastructure projects. The 

promoters have a proven track record in the Mumbai RE market since 1983. ORL has 

undertaken ~5msf of RE development across 33 projects so far, which provides it with 

rich experience in the Mumbai RE market. In October 2010, ORL raised ~Rs10.3b through 

a public issue of 36.9m shares. The stated objectives for the issue been: (1) construction 

funding of key ongoing and planned residential and commercial projects, and (2) to acquire 

land or land development rights. 

ORL's corporate structure 


Construction 

Private Ltd 

50% 

Siddhivinayak 

Realties 

Private Ltd 


Private Ltd 

Kingston 

Property 

Services 

Private Ltd 


Limited 

100% 100% 100% 36.7% 100% 100% 100% 

100% 

Perspective 

Realties 

Private Ltd 

Oasis 


Sangam City 

Township 

Private Ltd 


Western suburbs Central suburbs Island City Pune Total 

Residential 6.8 3.2 1.5 0.8 12.3 

Commercial 3.9 - 0.2 0.3 4.4 

Retail 0.6 - 0.1 0.3 1.0 

Hospitality 1.7 0.2 1.9 

Social Infra 2.0 2.0 

Total 14.9 3.2 2.1 1.3 21.4 

ORL's land bank: Development status wise (MSF) 

Kingston 

Hospitality 

& Developers 

Private Ltd 

Unincorporated 

Unincorporated JV 

JV 

Zaco 

Aviation 

Expression 


Private Ltd 

Triumph 


Private Ltd 

Completed Annuity assets Ongoing Upcoming Total 

Residential NA 5.8 6.5 12.3 

Commercial 0.4 3.7 0.4 4.4 

Retail 0.6 0.1 0.3 1.0 

Hospitality 0.4 0.2 1.3 1.9 

Social infra - 0.3 1.7 2.0 

1.3 10.1 10.1 21.4 


27

ORL has integrated projects 

location in Goregaon, 

Andheri, Mulund and Worli 


Annexure : Project location 


28

ORL has already sold 37 

units in Splendor 

Grande and ~93% in 

Oberoi Splendor 



Oberoi Splendor 

Oberoi Splendor is a mixed-use development, comprising residential, office space and 

social infrastructure projects, on approximately 21.50 acres of land in Andheri (E) a western 

suburb of Mumbai. The project is located on the Jogeshwari Vikhroli Link Road (JVLR) 

and has total saleable area of ~3msf. ORL acquired this land from Madhu Fantasy Land 

Pvt. Ltd and Avinash Bhosale in 2005 at Rs1.06b.The development is located near the 

arterial Western Express Highway and overlooks Aarey Milk Colony, a 3,160 acre 

no-development green zone. This development site is being developed by its wholly-owned 

subsidiary, OCPL. 

Residential plot 

Integrated layout of Splendor (Andheri E) project 

Splendor II 

(Grande) 

IT Tower 

Splendor I 

Commerical 

Phase-I 

Commerical 

Phase-II 

(Prisma) 

~1,200 units (out of 1,296 units) have been sold in Splendor I 

School 

Plot 

JVLR 

Constructions have commenced in Grande(Residential) and Prisma (Commercial) 

Oberoi Grande School Plot 

Oberoi Prisma 

29

Expect Oasis residential will 

be launched in 1HFY12 

Layout of Oasis project at Worli 

Dr. Annie 

Besant Road 


Oasis 

Commerical / 

Retail / Hotel 

Excavation work commenced in Worli plots 

Rehab building 


Oberoi Oasis 

Oasis Realty is a joint venture between ORL's wholly-owned subsidiary, OCPL, Skylark 

Build and Shree Vrunda Enterprises to develop a mixed-use development of approximately 

2.1msf of saleable area in Worli, located on the arterial Annie Besant Road. As a joint 

venture partner, OCPL will be responsible for developing the free-sale portion arising 

from the slum redevelopment project being undertaken on the property. The rehabilitation 

component of the slum redevelopment project is the responsibility of the other joint-venture 

partners. OCPL would receive 25-40% of net revenues (gross revenue less construction 

cost) from sale of residential, office space and retail components. Provided construction 

of hotel is completed by OCPL, it would receive 36.25% of net revenues from the hotel. 

Residential plot 

Oasis 

Residential 

Rehab Buildings 

Commercial and hotel plot 

30

Projects at Mulund are 

likely to be launched in 

4QFY11 and land 

aggreation is progressing 

in Pune 



Oberoi Exotica 

Oberoi Exotica is a residential development on approximately 18.3 acres of land in Mulund 

(W) a central suburb of Mumbai. The development is located on LBS Marg, a key road in 

the central suburbs, and overlooks the Borivali National Park. The project has a total 

saleable area of ~3.2msf and is divided into two phases: Exotica-I has a salable area of 

1.6msf comprising ~890 units while Exotica-II has a saleable area of 1.6msf with 869 

units. ORL acquired this land for Rs2.2b in 2005 from GlaxoSmithKline Pharmaceuticals 

Limited. ORL expects to launch the projects by 4QFY11. 

Oberoi Sangam City project at Pune 

ORL holds a 31.67% interest in Sangam City Township Private Limited (Sangam City 

Township), an SPV, established for a development project comprising approximately 56 

acres of land located in Sangamwadi, Pune, and surrounded by the Mula Mutha River on 

three sides. The land is situated 2km from Pune Railway Station and 6km from Pune 

International Airport. 

The project will be developed as a mixed-use development, comprising residential, office 

space and retail components. This agricultural land parcel was acquired through individual 

agreements with the land owner since 2007. The SPV would be responsible for obtaining 

approval related to land conversion. While the land aggregation process in still continuing, 

ORL has made the cash payment partly by disbursing and partly keeping it in an escrow 

account. 

31


Financials and valuation 


INCOME STATEMENT (Rs Million) 

Y/E March 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 

Net Sales 5,112 4,255 7,836 10,382 13,865 24,383 

Change (%) 117.4 (16.8) 84.2 32.5 33.5 75.9 

Construction expenses 2,504 1,695 3,094 4,150 5,567 8,491 

Staff Cost 33 87 70 259 284 313 

EBITDA 2,575 2,474 4,672 5,973 8,014 15,579 

% of Net Sales 50.4 58.1 59.6 57.5 57.8 63.9 

Depreciation 19 73 91 130 174 189 

Interest 0 4 - - - 248 

Other Income 474 295 218 545 1,119 1,158 

PBT 3,029 2,692 4,800 6,387 8,958 16,300 

Tax 69 177 226 1,214 2,464 4,955 

Rate (%) 2.3 6.6 4.7 19.0 27.5 30.4 

Adjusted PAT 2,954 2,521 4,582 5,174 6,495 11,345 

Change (%) 277.5 (14.6) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7 

BALANCE SHEET (Rs Million) 

Y/E MARCH 2,008 2,009 2,010 2011E 2012E 2013E 

Share Capital 26 26 2,887 3,282 3,282 3,282 

Reserves 11,395 13,840 15,392 30,087 36,027 45,895 

Net Worth 12,204 14,437 18,637 33,728 39,669 49,536 

Loans 1,435 107 - - - 4,954 

Capital Employed 13,640 14,544 18,637 33,728 39,669 54,490 

Gross Fixed Assets 477 2,837 3,258 4,362 4,736 5,841 

Less: Depreciation 31 101 190 209 230 253 

Net Fixed Assets 446 2,736 3,068 4,153 4,507 5,588 

Capital WIP 3,917 3,851 5,103 5,307 6,497 6,458 

Curr. Assets 8,991 11,794 16,517 34,007 40,287 54,194 

Inventory 5,504 7,127 6,243 8,885 11,958 11,893 

Debtors 501 272 404 831 1,387 2,438 

Cash & Bank Balance 461 1,669 3,631 15,986 16,543 27,671 

Loans & Advances 2,526 2,725 6,240 8,306 10,399 12,192 

Current Liab. & Prov. 3,548 3,993 6,843 10,933 12,815 12,944 

Creditors 3,540 3,962 6,746 10,909 12,792 12,920 

Provisions 9 31 97 24 24 24 

Net Current Assets 5,443 7,801 9,675 23,075 27,471 41,250 

Misc. Expenses - - - - - - 

Application of Funds 13,640 14,544 18,637 33,728 39,669 54,490 

E: MOSL Estimates 

32


Financials and valuation 

RATIOS 


Y/E March 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 

Basic (Rs) 

Adjusted EPS 9.0 7.7 14.0 15.8 19.8 34.6 

Growth (%) 277.5 (14.6) 81.7 12.9 25.5 74.7 

Cash EPS 9.1 7.9 14.2 16.2 20.3 35.1 

Book Value 37.2 44.0 56.8 102.8 120.9 150.9 

DPS 1.4 0.6 4.0 1.0 1.5 4.0 

Payout (incl. Div. Tax.) 9.7 7.0 28.4 7.1 8.5 13.0 

Valuation (x) 

P/E 25.4 29.8 16.4 14.5 11.6 6.6 

Cash P/E 25.3 29.0 16.1 14.2 11.3 6.5 

EV/EBITDA 29.6 29.8 15.3 9.9 7.3 3.4 

EV/Sales 14.9 17.3 9.1 5.7 4.2 2.2 

Price/Book Value 6.2 5.2 4.0 2.2 1.9 1.5 

Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.3 1.7 0.4 0.7 1.7 

Profitability Ratios (%) 

RoE 27.6 18.9 27.7 19.8 17.7 25.4 

RoCE 23.3 19.1 28.9 24.4 24.4 35.1 

Leverage Ratio 

Debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.0 - - - 0.1 

CASH FLOW STATEMENT (Rs Million) 

Y/E MARCH 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 

PBT before Extraordinary Items 3,029 2,692 4,800 6,387 8,958 16,300 

Add : Depreciation 19 73 91 130 174 189 

Interest 0 4 - - - 248 

Less : Direct Taxes Paid 69 177 226 1,214 2,464 4,955 

(Inc)/Dec in WC 498 1,150 (87) 1,044 3,839 2,651 

CF from Operations 2,476 1,448 4,759 4,260 2,830 9,131 

(Inc)/Dec in FA (1,937) (2,297) (1,675) (1,419) (1,719) (1,232) 

(Pur)/Sale of Investments (3,842) 3,692 (640) (404) - - 

CF from Investments (5,779) 1,395 (2,315) (1,823) (1,719) (1,232) 

(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth 287 (127) 923 10,288 0 0 

(Inc)/Dec in Debt (1,708) (1,328) (107) - - 4,954 

Less : Interest Paid 0 4 - - - 248 

Dividend Paid 288 177 1,299 369 554 1,477 

CF from Fin. Activity (1,709) (1,635) (483) 9,919 (554) 3,229 

Inc/Dec of Cash (5,012) 1,208 1,961 12,355 557 11,128 

Add: Beginning Balance 5,473 461 1,669 3,631 15,986 16,543 

Closing Balance 461 1,669 3,630 15,986 16,543 27,671 

E: MOSL Estimates 

33

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This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. Motilal Oswal 

Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely 

for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form. 

The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon such. MOSt or 

any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the 

information contained in this report. MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding 

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MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. 

Disclosure of Interest Statement Oberoi Realty 

1. Analyst ownership of the stock Yes 

2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock No 

3. Broking relationship with company covered No 

4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered No 

This information is subject to change without any prior notice. MOSt reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required 

from time to time. Nevertheless, MOSt is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide 

information in response to specific client queries.

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