NCEP/HPC - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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Verification shows concentrated human adjustments to guidance in areas of high <strong>for</strong>ecaster confidence and blender usage lead to max added value There is a low false alarm rate but a low probability of detection of big changes Day 5 Maximum Temp Forecast Green > ~5° C Human Change to MOS USA Bigger changes are regional in scale ~1°C >5°C Day 4 – 7 Percent improvements 4 5 6 7 Percent of total grid points adjusted by human Arctic Airmass Bias Challenge MAR 2004 2M TEMP BIAS BIAS WITHOUT MANY LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASSES JAN 2004 2M TEMP BIAS COLD (GREEN) / WARM (RED) BIAS WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL COLD AIRMASSES
Day 0-10 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 500 MB A.C. SCORES Global Model Comparison Sep 15 - Oct 15 2007 <strong>NCEP</strong>/EMC Global Model vs. Ensemble Mean Comparison SUMMER 2007 Ensemble mean improvement vs. control
Page 1 and 2: NCEP/HPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTING S
Page 3 and 4: WFOs WFOs HPC Medium Range Desk (Da
Page 5 and 6: Primary Medium Range Models/Ensembl
Page 7 and 8: Ex. Day 7 Global Model & Ensemble P
Page 9: Model Output Statistics (MOS) HPC C
Page 13 and 14: NOAA/National Weather Service Strat
Page 15 and 16: Poor 500 hPa height continuity all
Page 17 and 18: Fig. a Fig. b Potential errors with
Page 19 and 20: THORPEX GOAL • Accelerate improve
Page 21 and 22: NAEFS product example: Week-2 Mean
Page 23 and 24: ENSEMBLE 10-, 50- (MEDIAN) & 90-PER
Page 25 and 26: NAEFS 2.71 F NDFD 3.32 F MOS 2.91 F
Page 27 and 28: PROPOSED FORECAST FORMAT • In add
Page 29 and 30: Alaska Medium Range • Development
Page 31: Links with NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncert

NCEP/HPC - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

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