NCEP/HPC - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
NCEP/HPC - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
NCEP/HPC - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
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THORPEX GOAL<br />
• Accelerate improvements in skill & utility of high<br />
impact <strong>for</strong>ecasts<br />
– Forecaster improvements are strongly related to<br />
advances in NWP skill and access to in<strong>for</strong>mation<br />
Threat Score<br />
0.35<br />
0.3<br />
0.25<br />
0.2<br />
0.15<br />
0.1<br />
0.05<br />
Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores<br />
0<br />
1991<br />
1992<br />
1993<br />
Forecasters Add Value<br />
Models provide basis <strong>for</strong><br />
improvement<br />
1994<br />
1995<br />
1996<br />
1997<br />
1998<br />
1999<br />
2000<br />
2001<br />
2002<br />
2003<br />
Human(<strong>HPC</strong>)<br />
ETA<br />
<strong>NCEP</strong> / <strong>HPC</strong> Day 7 <strong>for</strong>ecast skill in 2006 equals<br />
day 5 skill in 2000 (2 day increase in 6 years)<br />
IMPROVEMENT IN PROBABILISTIC<br />
SKILL OVER PAST 4 YEARS<br />
1.5-day extension of skill in 4 yrs<br />
Close to 2-day extension<br />
of skill with first NAEFS<br />
implementation<br />
THORPEX – NAEFS<br />
TO DOUBLE RATE OF<br />
IMPROVEMENT
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