Optimización Estocástica de Planes de Desarrollo - MEIVAP
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Produccion y Precios <strong>de</strong> Venta<br />
Producción Gas Promedio Dia (MMPCGD) PRECIO Gas HUMEDO US$/MPC Producción Con<strong>de</strong>nsado Promedio Dia (BD) PRECIO Con<strong>de</strong>nsado US$/Bl<br />
Ano Qdia 10% Qdia MEDIA Qdia 90% Qdia ESTDV Min Moda Max DS Qdia 10% Qdia MEDIA Qdia 90% Qdia ESTDV Min Moda Max DS<br />
2010 80.903 89.085 94.485 2.768 4.285 5.356 6.963 0.446 5760.544 6343.117 6727.623 197.086 51.025 63.781 82.915 5.315<br />
2011 69.015 79.314 93.651 3.982 3.946 4.932 6.412 0.411 4858.999 5606.368 6745.667 283.188 51.984 64.981 84.475 5.415<br />
2012 53.325 59.943 68.421 2.689 3.924 4.905 6.377 0.409 3615.750 4092.512 4654.387 184.656 53.735 67.169 87.320 5.597<br />
2013 42.160 47.462 55.023 2.180 3.864 4.829 6.278 0.402 2792.650 3121.030 3684.794 143.845 53.735 67.169 87.320 5.597<br />
2014 34.031 38.661 48.072 2.026 4.015 5.019 6.525 0.418 2147.089 2444.012 2965.875 128.097 54.610 68.263 88.742 5.689<br />
2015 27.750 31.993 37.324 1.748 4.168 5.210 6.773 0.434 1699.309 1941.195 2316.659 106.607 56.361 70.451 91.587 5.871<br />
2016 22.877 26.362 33.285 1.589 4.323 5.404 7.025 0.450 1331.095 1533.645 1974.452 92.350 57.236 71.545 93.009 5.962<br />
2017 18.481 21.674 27.827 1.385 4.537 5.671 7.372 0.473 1026.713 1208.310 1485.288 75.852 58.987 73.734 95.854 6.144<br />
2018 15.778 18.255 22.391 1.206 4.710 5.888 7.654 0.491 834.825 972.792 1176.862 63.083 60.738 75.922 98.699 6.327<br />
2019 12.996 15.239 19.068 0.943 4.976 6.220 8.085 0.518 660.519 775.234 991.541 47.552 63.363 79.204 102.966 6.600<br />
2020 10.977 12.516 15.058 0.673 5.140 6.424 8.352 0.535 531.565 606.896 738.648 32.218 65.114 81.393 105.810 6.783<br />
2021 9.327 10.444 12.193 0.511 5.303 6.629 8.618 0.552 429.339 481.257 558.022 23.063 66.865 83.581 108.655 6.965<br />
2022 7.738 8.726 10.025 0.388 5.532 6.915 8.990 0.576 338.212 380.916 435.412 16.671 69.491 86.863 112.922 7.239<br />
2023 6.641 7.500 8.551 0.305 5.762 7.202 9.363 0.600 274.151 309.169 354.698 12.441 72.117 90.146 117.189 7.512<br />
2024 5.778 6.422 7.381 0.219 5.992 7.490 9.737 0.624 224.184 249.010 283.683 8.416 74.742 93.428 121.456 7.786<br />
2025 5.171 5.693 6.187 0.180 6.326 7.907 10.280 0.659 187.744 206.683 224.069 6.508 77.368 96.710 125.724 8.059<br />
Ingresos MMUS$<br />
Ingresos por Gas ( IG) - MMUS$ Ingresos por Con<strong>de</strong>nsados (IC) - MMUS$ Ingresos Totales (IT) - MMUS$<br />
Ingresos Totales Descontados (VPINGR) - MMUS$<br />
Ano IG10% IG Media IG 90% IG DS IC 10% IC Media IC 90% IC DS IT 10% IT Media IT 90% IT DS VPINGR 10% VPINGR M VPINGR 90% VPINGR DS<br />
2010 154.690 177.162 200.084 17.139 131.523 150.074 169.592 14.434 298.715 327.236 356.703 22.388 298.715 327.236 356.703 22.388<br />
2011 125.934 145.191 165.839 15.267 116.948 135.077 153.845 14.129 253.967 280.269 307.526 20.723 226.757 250.240 274.577 18.503<br />
2012 94.943 109.180 124.164 11.155 88.627 102.085 116.213 10.525 191.633 211.265 231.405 15.404 152.768 168.419 184.475 12.280<br />
2013 74.036 85.183 96.775 8.740 67.653 78.012 88.844 8.070 148.020 163.196 178.950 11.874 105.358 116.160 127.373 8.452<br />
2014 62.253 71.834 81.990 7.561 53.633 62.050 70.951 6.588 121.238 133.885 147.027 10.015 77.049 85.086 93.438 6.365<br />
2015 53.463 61.768 70.658 6.584 43.827 50.719 58.078 5.460 101.735 112.487 123.809 8.557 57.727 63.828 70.252 4.855<br />
2016 45.592 52.894 60.634 5.792 35.113 40.765 46.752 4.492 84.381 93.659 103.318 7.317 42.750 47.451 52.344 3.707<br />
2017 39.311 45.797 52.596 5.148 28.536 33.200 38.150 3.706 70.881 78.998 87.352 6.327 32.063 35.734 39.514 2.862<br />
2018 34.154 39.856 45.830 4.494 23.540 27.457 31.596 3.073 60.352 67.313 74.471 5.436 24.375 27.187 30.078 2.195<br />
2019 30.258 35.177 40.321 3.900 19.557 22.756 26.129 2.536 52.002 57.933 64.087 4.674 18.752 20.891 23.111 1.686<br />
2020 25.821 29.871 34.199 3.201 15.849 18.370 20.995 1.960 43.438 48.241 53.180 3.739 13.986 15.532 17.122 1.204<br />
2021 22.270 25.753 29.339 2.704 13.002 14.963 16.995 1.537 36.748 40.716 44.773 3.096 10.564 11.705 12.871 0.890<br />
2022 19.488 22.414 25.521 2.290 10.685 12.307 13.994 1.259 31.350 34.720 38.227 2.630 8.047 8.912 9.812 0.675<br />
2023 17.458 20.028 22.713 1.996 8.997 10.335 11.725 1.038 27.477 30.364 33.352 2.255 6.297 6.959 7.643 0.517<br />
2024 15.603 17.841 20.244 1.750 7.524 8.639 9.788 0.850 23.976 26.480 29.096 1.951 4.906 5.418 5.954 0.399<br />
2025 14.661 16.752 18.966 1.631 6.493 7.446 8.446 0.730 21.924 24.198 26.579 1.778 4.005 4.421 4.856 0.325<br />
ICV<br />
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Ingresos en el Ciclo <strong>de</strong> Vida (ICV) - MMUS$<br />
ICV 10% ICV Media ICV 90% ICV DS<br />
1,151.28 1,195.18 1,239.13 34.00<br />
Figura 4. 19. Esquemático <strong>de</strong> la estimación <strong>de</strong> los Ingresos en el Ciclo <strong>de</strong> Vida <strong>de</strong>l Campo R2M (ICV).
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