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Foundations of Data Science

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may be infinite. That is,<br />

∞∑<br />

i=0<br />

ip i = ∞. For example, if for i >0, p i = 6<br />

π 2 1<br />

i 2 , then ∞ ∑<br />

i=1<br />

p i = 1,<br />

∑<br />

but ∞ ip i = ∞. The value <strong>of</strong> the random variable x is always finite, but its expected<br />

i=1<br />

value is infinite. This does not happen in a branching process, except in the special case<br />

where the slope m = f ′ (1) equals one and p 1 ≠ 1<br />

Lemma 4.12 If the slope m = f ′ (1) does not equal one, then the expected size <strong>of</strong> an<br />

extinct family is finite. If the slope m equals one and p 1 = 1, then the tree is an infinite<br />

degree one chain and there are no extinct families. If m=1 and p 1 < 1, then the expected<br />

size <strong>of</strong> the extinct family is infinite.<br />

Pro<strong>of</strong>: Let z i be the random variable denoting the size <strong>of</strong> the i th generation and let q be<br />

the probability <strong>of</strong> extinction. The probability <strong>of</strong> extinction for a tree with k children in<br />

the first generation is q k since each <strong>of</strong> the k children has an extinction probability <strong>of</strong> q.<br />

Note that the expected size <strong>of</strong> z 1 , the first generation, over extinct trees will be smaller<br />

than the expected size <strong>of</strong> z 1 over all trees since when the root node has a larger number<br />

<strong>of</strong> children than average, the tree is more likely to be infinite.<br />

By Bayes rule<br />

Prob (z 1 = k|extinction) = Prob (z 1 = k) Prob (extinction|z 1 = k)<br />

Prob (extinction)<br />

= p k<br />

q k<br />

q = p kq k−1 .<br />

Knowing the probability distribution <strong>of</strong> z 1 given extinction, allows us to calculate the<br />

expected size <strong>of</strong> z 1 given extinction.<br />

∞∑<br />

E (z 1 |extinction) = kp k q k−1 = f ′ (q) .<br />

k=0<br />

We now prove, using independence, that the expected size <strong>of</strong> the i th generation given<br />

extinction is<br />

E (z i |extinction) =<br />

(<br />

f ′ (q)) i<br />

.<br />

For i = 2, z 2 is the sum <strong>of</strong> z 1 independent random variables, each independent <strong>of</strong> the random<br />

variable z 1 . So, E(z 2 |z 1 = j and extinction) = E( sum <strong>of</strong> j copies <strong>of</strong> z 1 |extinction) =<br />

jE(z 1 |extinction). Summing over all values <strong>of</strong> j<br />

∞∑<br />

E(z 2 |extinction) = E(z 2 |z 1 = j and extinction)Prob(z 1 = j|extinction)<br />

=<br />

j=1<br />

∞∑<br />

jE(z 1 |extinction)Prob(z 1 = j|extinction)<br />

j=1<br />

= E(z 1 |extinction)<br />

∞∑<br />

jProb(z 1 = j|extinction) = E 2 (z 1 |extinction).<br />

j=1<br />

101

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