Handbook of intelligence studies / edited by

JEFFREY T. RICHELSON
diplomatic or military intentions or capabilities – unless foolishly transmitted by fax in an
insecure manner – are immune from technical collection systems. At times, such documents can
be obtained via a human source.
Technical collection systems can be subject to denial and deception. A nation which knows
or suspects that some activity – for example, preparations for a nuclear test or WMD production
– would be of interest to another nation’s reconnaissance satellites may take care to eliminate
or minimize the chance that those satellites will detect the preparations. Measures that might be
taken include operating at night, not operating when a foreign reconnaissance satellite is estimated
to be in range, and conducting test preparations under cover of another, more innocuous
activity. A significant factor in India’s ability to surprise the US with its 1998 nuclear test was
the precautions taken to avoid detection by US spy satellites – including operating at night.
As both terrorist groups and some nations have learned, one means of avoiding having one’s
plans or activities detected through foreign communications intercept operations is to either
communicate by means that are either not subject to remote interception, sufficiently cryptic to
provide no crucial information, or are transmitted in a manner unlikely to be detected. Use of
a courier, a phone conversation in which one terrorist alerts another that “tomorrow is the
day” without providing further information, and a covert message accessible only through an
obscure Internet site are respective examples.
Nations interested in hiding their weapons of mass destruction activities can also take actions
to prevent other nations’ MASINT collection from revealing those activities. During the Cold
War the US actively sought to suppress the emissions of the krypton-85 gas associated with
plutonium production. Other nations closely guard their WMD facilities, which can prevent
foreign intelligence assets from collecting soil or other samples that can be used to shed more
light on what is going on inside those facilities.
The international environment may also conspire to reduce the value of technical collection.
The Soviet Union was a nation that did not try to hide the fact that it had a nuclear weapons
program, engaged in extensive testing of its missile systems, and built a variety of naval vessels in
its well-known shipyards. In contrast, some nations have small nuclear programs, make an
enormous effort to conduct such activities covertly, and may engage in minimal or no testing of
any nuclear devices they develop. Further, terrorist groups do not have the infrastructure that
allows accumulation of intelligence from monitoring a large number of facilities, and are adept
at covert communications.
The response from those seeking to detect such activities may include more intensive use of
resources. Wider satellite reconnaissance operations can reduce the ability of a target nation to
conduct operations in secret. Further, the distribution among the types of reconnaissance might
be altered – for example, relying more extensively on radar imagery. Attempts may also be made
to emplace technical collection devices – such as video cameras and eavesdropping antennae –
near a target to obtain continuous coverage, rather than relying on intermittent coverage from
satellites and aircraft.
Technical collection may also be conducted in different ways. Different types of sensors
might be used, which focus on different parts of the electro-magnetic spectrum or collect
information in entirely new ways – just as the first ventures to collect debris from a nuclear
explosion, or the gases emitted during plutonium production represent new ways to uncover
other nations’ nuclear secrets.
One can expect that the value of technical collection will continue to be significant, but
to also rise and fall, reflecting the continued contest between hiders and finders – with the
developers of technical collection systems seeking to overcome the tactics that their targets
employ to evade their collection systems.
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