Policies to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation ...

different types of forests. Estimates of carbon stocks for different types of intact forests are available
in the literature (Houghton 2003a; Achard et al. 2004; FAO 2006; Mollicone et al. 2007). Although
the methodologies for conducting forest inventories are established (the first step in monitoring
forestry emissions), reliable forest inventories do not exist for some countries, and thus
forest carbon inventories cannot be calculated.
Forest Degradation
Using a forest cover criterion to define forest degradation allows degradation to be monitored using
remote sensing technologies, as illustrated in Figure 3.1. However, monitoring degradation is
still more costly and more complex than monitoring deforestation. Although the challenges to
monitoring forest degradation are great, degradation contributes significantly to forestry emissions,
and the drivers of degradation may be easier to abate than the drivers of deforestation.
Additionally, information on the carbon stocks of degraded forests is poor. The lack of carbon
data on degraded forests could be addressed by pairing very high resolution remote sensing with
significant ground-truthing. Alternatively, rule-of-thumb assumptions could be made about the
carbon stocks in a nonintact or degraded forest. For example, Mollicone et al. (2007) propose, for
the sake of simplicity, an assumption that nonintact forests have half the carbon stocks of intact
forests of the same type.
Baselines
For any type of REDD program to succeed, it must exhibit quantitative reductions of deforestation
rates below baseline, or business-as-usual, scenarios. Thus, defining the baseline will significantly
affect the “success” of a REDD program. To define baselines, one must address four questions.
∫ Should baselines be at the project level or national level?
∫ Are the data sufficient to set a baseline deforestation rate?
∫ How should a baseline be set to maintain equity, encourage participation, and reduce the risk of
hot air?
∫ Should baselines change over time?
Appropriate Geographic Scope for Baselines 9
The choice of the appropriate geographic scope for setting baselines will be influenced by the fundamental
decision of whether REDD policies will be project-based or national-based. If REDD policies
are based on national emissions, national baselines would be appropriate. The host country
would inevitably monitor the emissions of its portfolio of REDD projects, and thus would also establish
project baselines. However, the national baseline would be the important one because the
country would generate credits based on national deforestation rates compared with its national
baseline. If REDD policies are project-based, baselines would have to incorporate areas that are at
risk of leakage as well as the project area itself. Depending on the project size and the risk of leakage,
a national baseline might be necessary. Project-based baselines would provide a BAU scenario
Policy Design Issues 41