Container shipping: Successful turnaround - Deutsche Bank Research

International topics Current Issues
March 28, 2011
Author
Eric Heymann
+49 69 910-31730
eric.heymann@db.com
Editor
Tobias Just
Technical Assistants
Sabine Kaiser
Sabine Berger
Deutsche Bank Research
Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Internet: www.dbresearch.com
E-mail: marketing.dbr@db.com
Fax: +49 69 910-31877
Managing Director
Thomas Mayer
Container shipping:
Successful turnaround
Container shipping achieved an impressive turnaround in 2010. Global
container throughput rose by at least 11% last year, after declining for the first time
ever in 2009 (-9%). The level of global container throughput was thus higher again
than before the crisis. The reasons for the recovery were the stockbuilding of
industrial goods and the rapid upturn in Asia above all. 2011 will probably see
container throughput increase by 7%.
During the crisis the freight and charter rates in the container
shipping segment nosedived by 50-80%. At one stage about 12% of the
fleet was out of service (compared with 2% at last count). In the meantime, prices
(rates) have recovered, but they are still well below their pre-crisis record levels.
Although the next few years will see additional capacity introduced into the market
– and especially in the very large container ship segment – demand is likely to
grow faster than supply on average until 2015. The problem of overcapacity will
therefore be mitigated. In both 2011 and 2012 charter rates could rise by
significant double-digit amounts.
The medium-term outlook for the sector is intact. Global container
throughput is likely to expand by an average of 7-8% per year until 2015.
Container shipping is thus the fastest growing mode of transport. The drivers
remain the increasing international division of labour and productivity gains within
the sector. All the same, container shipping increasingly finds itself faced with
political and economic challenges and risks. These include stricter environmental
regulation, capacity bottlenecks at ports, rising fuel prices and protectionist
tendencies.
Container shipping already above pre-crisis level
Global container throughput and container trade (million TEU*)
0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Container throughput** Container trade***
* Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit (standard container size).
** Container throughput includes all turnover activity (e.g. includes empty container movements.
*** Container trade covers only the number of laden containers that ultimately arrive at the destination port.
Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100

Container shipping has
recovered from recession
Global container throughput, % yoy
91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
Source: Drewry 1
World trade and container
shipping closely correlated
x-axis: world trade, % yoy
y-axis: container throughput, % yoy
20
R² = 0.73
15
10
-10
-15
-20 -10 0 10 20
Sources: CPB Netherlands, Drewry, DB Research 2
The biggest container ports
in the world: Asia dominant
Container throughput (million TEU)
Singapore
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Shenzhen
Busan
Guangzhou
Dubai Ports
Ningbo
Qingdao
Rotterdam
Tianjin
Kaohsiung
Port Kelang
Antwerp
Hamburg
Los Angeles
Tanjung Pelepas
Long Beach
Xiamen
Laem Chabang
5
0
-5
0 10 20 30
2000 2009
Source: Hafen Hamburg
3
Current Issues
2009 sees global container throughput sink for the first
time
The global recession of 2008/09 hit the global container shipping
business hard. Global container throughput fell for the first time in
the annals of the sector in 2009, contracting by over 9%, according
to Drewry Shipping Consultants (Drewry). Prices (freight and charter
rates) fell by between 50% and 80%. At its height some 12% of the
fleet (based on lot capacity in TEU 1 ) was laid up, which means that
at one stage about 600 ships had been taken out of service.
According to information from Germany’s Verband Deutscher
Reeder (VDR), international shipping lines suffered losses of USD
20 bn in 2009. The reasons for these losses are obvious: the global
economic crisis was marked by a slump in trading activities and
investment. This had a knock-on effect on container shipping since
the fortunes of the sector are very closely correlated with global
trade developments. 2
From a regional standpoint it was the European and North American
ports that were particularly hard hit by the recession. In 2009
container throughput contracted by more than 16% at northern
European ports and by over 13% in North America. The biggest
decline of around 36% was posted by the eastern European ports
(Baltic area, Black Sea, eastern Mediterranean) that are small by
international standards. Several routes were completely suspended
at these ports during the crisis. The decline in 2009 is, however, put
into perspective by the fact that the eastern European ports had
posted the highest growth rates for many years prior to the
recession. Of the world’s 30 biggest ports Hamburg suffered the
biggest decline at 28%. The deep slump in German external trade
was one major reason. On top of this, several feeder services 3 from
Hamburg to the Baltic area were temporarily suspended or transferred
to competing ports (e.g. Rotterdam).
Asian ports were less affected by the crisis as the economic
environment there was much more favourable than in Europe and
the US. In both the Far East and South Asia the decrease in
container throughput in 2009 was about 8%; in the Middle East the
decline was a mere 2%. Several Asian ports even managed to grow
their container throughput in the crisis year of 2009 (e.g. Khor
Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates: +30% to 2.8 m TEU).
Container shipping enjoys multiple advantages
Before the slump in container throughput in 2009 the sector posted
very high growth rates. Between 1990 and 2008, for instance, global
container throughput rose by an annual average rate of more than
10%. The discrepancy between the 2009 figure and the prior longterm
performance highlights the scale of the crisis.
The reasons for the historically very high growth in container
shipping include the increasing international division of labour and
the growing liberalisation of world trade (e.g. China’s WTO
accession in 2001). Furthermore, the share of goods that are ideal
for shipping via container (semis and finished products) has risen
steadily over the last few years, and advances in container
technology allow more and more goods to be transported via
1
TEU stands for Twenty Foot Equivalent Unit and is the usual standard container
size.
2
Container throughput invariably grows faster than world trade: between 1991 and
2008 it expanded by 50% more than world trade.
3
Feeder services operate between the larger and smaller ports within a region.
2 March 28, 2011

Container shipping: Successful turnaround
Asia least affected by the
crisis
Container throughput by region based on
biggest ports, 2005=100
140
80
05 06 07 08 09
3.6
Europe Asia
North America
Exports by major trading
nations continue rising
% yoy
CN JP DE US
3.6
5.2
2009 2010 2011
Asia commands large share
of container trade
Individual routes as % of container trade,
2009
28.6
13.4
32.8
12.7
120
100
Sources: Hafen Hamburg, DB Research 4
40
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
Trans-Pacific Europe-Far East
Intra-Asia Intra-Europe
Transatlantic Far East-Middle East
Other
0
Source: DB Research 5
Source: Drewry 6
container (e.g. containers for refrigerated goods or liquids). In
addition, container ships possess specific advantages over
traditional general cargo freighters: shorter loading and unloading
times reduce turnaround times in the port, which cuts costs. Also,
the options for onward conveyance via other modes of transport are
better with containers than with general cargo. Ever bigger and
faster ships have enabled constant productivity gains, although the
increase in capacity over recent years has cranked up the price
pressure in the sector (see page 5). Extensive investment in port
infrastructure has been and remains essential for fast growth.
Especially in Asia a very large number of container terminals have
been expanded or built from scratch in the last few years. 4 As a
result the containerisation level, that is the proportion of cargo
shipped in containers, has risen worldwide and exceeds 90% at
most of the big ports (Hamburg: 97%; 1990: 69%).
Container shipping celebrates an impressive comeback
Global container shipping has managed a complete turnaround
following the crisis. Global container throughput probably rose by at
least 11% in 2010 (final figures are not yet available). This means
that the record level of 2008 has been bettered again. The key factor
in this recovery was the stockbuilding by the industrial sector and
the swift economic recovery in many countries that was often driven
by external trade. Particularly the upturn in Asia (real GDP ex Japan
2010: +9%) helped to get container shipping back on a growth track.
The world’s leading exporter, China, boosted its shipments by more
than 30% in 2010 (2009: -16%). Other Asian economies, too,
bolstered the sector. Overall, container throughput in Asia probably
increased by at least 13% in 2010, whereas North America (+9%)
and Western Europe (+7%) are likely to have achieved only belowaverage
growth (Hamburg: +12.7%).
Asia setting the pace
The focus of the global container shipping sector has been steadily
shifting towards Asia in any case over recent years. Some 70% of
global container throughput is handled by ports in Asia. In 2009 nine
out of the ten biggest container ports in the world were in Asia (in
the year 2000 the figure was just five). China is the dominant force
in this respect, being home to six of the current top 10 ports.
Looking at container trade by shipping route reveals that at least
one port in Asia is involved in around 80% of all movements. Intra-
Asian routes with a share of one-third are by far the most important
(2007: just 23%). This illustrates that global container shipping not
only benefits from the manufacturing in Asia (China) of consumer
goods for western Europe or the US, but that in addition the trade
links and the international division of labour between Asian countries
have also increased significantly. There are individual ports that are
highly specialised in the pure transhipment of containers, thus
operating primarily as hubs for global and regional container
shipping and handling relatively little local traffic. Overall, besides
China there are smaller developing countries and emerging markets
(e.g. Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam) that are also continually
investing in their port capacities.
A cluster analysis underlines that both the biggest and the fastest
growing container ports are located in Asia. The axes of Figure 8
plot the deviations of the world’s 35 biggest container ports from
4 See Heymann, Eric (2006). Container shipping: Overcapacity inevitable despite
increasing demand. Deutsche Bank Research. Current Issues. Frankfurt am Main.
March 28, 2011 3

Many ports operate mainly
as transhipment hubs
Importance of transhipment at selected
ports* (million TEU)
Singapore
Tanjung Pelepas
Guangzhou
Busan
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Dubai Ports
Kaohsiung
Port Kelang
Salalah
Rotterdam
Algeciras
Gioia Tauro
Colombo
Port Said
Marsaxlokk
Lianyungang
Khor Fakkan
Hamburg
Shenzhen
36.7
4.9
6.6
8
95%
49%
45%
21%
25%
45%
53%
59%
98%
30%
95%
95%
74%
90%
96%
71%
90%
29%
11%
0 10 20 30
* Additional figures show transhipment share.
8.8
35
85%
Source: Drewry
German shipping lines lead
the container segment
Container fleet by nationality of owner, %
DE JP DK CN GR Other
7
Source: VDR 9
Current Issues
average throughput and average growth between 1999 and 2009.
The upper right quadrant thus contains all the ports whose size and
growth are both above the average for the top 35. Six of the seven
ports in this quadrant are to be found in China.
Cluster analysis based on 35 major ports*: China's
ports are big and growing fast
x-axis: Deviation from average container throughput (million TEU)
y-axis: Deviation from average growth rate (percentage points)
25
20
15
Tianjin
10
5
Ningbo
Guangzhou
Qingdao
Dubai Ports
Shanghai
Shenzhen
0
-5
-10
-15
Busan
Rotterdam
Kaohsiung
Singapore
Hong Kong
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Asia (ex China) Other China
* For scale reasons the port of Tanjung Pelepas in Malaysia has been omitted; its container throughput
grew between 1999 and 2009 by an annual average of 64%.
German shipping lines lead the container sector
Despite Asia’s dominance with regard to the absolute importance of
container ports and shipping it is German shipping lines that
continue to top the rankings in terms of the container shipping fleet.
In 2009 some 35% of the available lot capacity belonged to German
ship owners. German shipping companies are hugely important
especially in the operational charter business. According to VDR,
they command two-thirds of the charter market.
Growth to continue in 2011 at a slower pace
The global economy, which has been boosted by dynamic foreign
trade figures and booming investment, will lose momentum in 2011.
Exports by leading trading nations (such as China, Germany and the
US) are likely to expand during the current year by only about half
as much as in 2010; in Japan the export growth rate could even
drop by more than two-thirds. Global container shipping will feel the
effects of this economic cooling. For 2011 we expect a rise in
container throughput by some 7%. Intra-Asian transport as well as
shipments into and out of Asia will probably expand faster than
transatlantic traffic for instance. The reasons for this are Asia’s
greater economic dynamism as well as higher investment in the
necessary port infrastructure. Container throughput is also set to
grow until 2015 at an annual average rate of 7-8% (see page 7),
according to the latest market forecasts by Drewry.
Fleet capacity determines prices
Sources: ISL, Hafen Hamburg, Drewry, DB Research 8
Fleet capacity growth is a decisive factor for pricing in the sector. As
in basically every sector, prices come under more pressure the
greater the increase in supply. The global container shipping sector
has been marked by constant growth in the size of the fleet in recent
years. This has primarily been a consequence of the boom in
demand. Since there is a relatively long period between the placing
of an order for new ships and their delivery – due to the protracted
4 March 28, 2011

Container shipping: Successful turnaround
Container shipping fleet
growing constantly
Million TEU
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
* Estimate
Charter rates recovered,
but below long-term average
HARPEX* development
2,500
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
HARPEX
Average support period
* Aggregate charter rate index
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10*
Newly built, left Scrapped, left
Fleet, right
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Sources: Harper Petersen, DB Research 11
New ship orders still at
low level
New ship orders in global container
sector
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Lot capacity, million TEU, right
Number of ships, left
0
16
14
12
10
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Sources: Clarkson Research Services, VDR 12
8
6
4
2
0
Source: Drewry 10
lead times – it is typical for the business that new ships are also
delivered at times when current demand is growing less strongly or
is even shrinking; shipping shares this structural feature (“hog
cycle”) with other sectors in which durable goods take a long time to
be produced (e.g. the real estate market, aircraft manufacturing,
parts of the mechanical engineering sector). Cyclical price
fluctuations can become amplified by the considerable time-lag (1 to
3 years) between the placing of an order and delivery of the ship.
The most recent recession is a good example of how large order
backlogs from boom years still have an impact during periods of
crisis and weigh on the earnings situation. Even in crisis-plagued
2009 lot capacity in global container shipping grew by 5%. Chinese
shipyards in particular continued to expand their deliveries of
container ships virtually unchecked. The coincidence of falling
supply and rising demand was the main reason for the sector’s huge
drop in rates, which amounted to as much as 80% in the charter
business; this shows the market clout of the liner shipping
companies compared with that of the charter lines. Smaller
container ships were affected by the decline in part as a result of
renegotiations, such that in many cases debt servicing was no
longer possible; the drop in freight rates for the scheduled lines was
not as high – at up to 50% – due to contracts already in effect.
2009 saw fleet capacity increase, although more than four times as
much capacity was scrapped as in 2008 and although several
shipping lines cancelled some of their orders due to the crisis and/or
reached agreement with the shipyards to postpone the delivery of
new ships. Since the container ship fleet as a whole is still very new,
the scope for scrapping is limited; this option is almost only available
for smaller ships (because they are older).
Slow steaming and more laid-up vessels make supply situation
tight
The shipping lines reacted to the imbalance between supply and
demand and the resulting plunge in prices by adopting a variety of
measures. Global orders of new container ships fell by more than
90% in 2009. On top of this came the above-mentioned cancelled
orders and postponed deliveries of new ships. All the measures
were insufficient to close the gap between supply and demand in the
short run. There were two other measures that the shipping lines
mainly used to prevent another drop in freight and charter rates:
— Shipping companies relied more heavily on slow steaming, that is
slower speeds and thus longer round-trip times for the ships.
This is not a new “instrument”. Back in 2007/08 speeds were
reduced on many routes as a consequence of rising oil prices. At
that time the priority was achieving significantly lower fuel
consumption by reducing speeds. Even a relatively moderate
reduction in speed from 24 to 20 knots can cut the daily fuel
consumption of, for instance, a container ship with a capacity of
8,000 TEU by 40%. Longer sailing times/delivery times and
higher labour and capital costs can be more than offset by such
cost savings. During the most recent crisis lower fuel
consumption continued to be an important argument. The
possibility to also reduce the efficiency of the fleet (i.e. to have
more ships sailing), had however, become much more important.
— Furthermore, the shipping lines felt that the implosion in demand
obliged them to lay up – that is temporarily take out of service – a
larger number of container ships. The companies had to face
March 28, 2011 5

Fuel consumption cut by
slow steaming
Speed-dependent (knots) fuel
consumption, tonnes per day
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
24 20.1 17.3
Ship with lot capacity of 8,000 TEU
Ship with lot capacity of 6,000 TEU
Number of laid-up ships
has dropped sharply
Number of laid-up container ships
worldwide during the crisis
0
08 09 10
Number of ships, right
TEU share of total fleet, %, left
250
200
150
100
50
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Source: AXS-Alphaliner, VDR 14
0
Source: Drewry 13
Order books for big ships
well filled
Fleet and orders on hand according to
ship size class (million TEU), July 2010
Up to 1,999 TEU
2,000 to 4,999 TEU
5,000 to 7,999 TEU
8,000 to 9,999 TEU
10,000 TEU and
over
0
0 2 4 6
Existing fleet Order book
Source: Drewry 15
Current Issues
laying-up costs of several thousand dollars per day. At its peak
some 12% of the global container shipping fleet was idle.
In the end, the reduced lot capacity has helped average freight and
charter rates to pick up again over the last few months – starting
from a very low base of course. Ultimately, however, the key driver
of the latest price increase was the growing demand for shipping.
Overall, the level of charter rates is still low anyway on a long-term
comparison.
Further increase in capacity inevitable …
This means that besides the growth in global demand for container
shipping services it is primarily the ongoing capacity developments
that are of special significance for the future earnings of the shipping
lines. Further capacity increases can be expected over the short and
medium term. Already over the last few months the number of laidup
ships has fallen dramatically and is currently just around 2% of
the global fleet. With the economy picking up, the market for ship
financing has shaken off the paralysis induced by the months-long
crisis. Around the world, capital is once again flowing into the
financing of container ships. In 2010 more new orders were placed
for container ships after 2009 had brought hardly any new orders;
last year’s orders were still some 40% lower than in 2008.
Overall, the order books still contain a considerable number of
orders placed in the pre-crisis years. Particularly container ships
with a lot capacity of over 10,000 TEU are coming onto the market in
greater numbers, even though it remains to be seen whether they
can also be fully financed. In this segment the ordered capacity in
mid-2010 was equivalent to nearly 400% of the available fleet in this
size category (total fleet: 30%). These ships are ideal for the busy
“expressway” routes, for example, between the Far East and Europe
and North America, and they dock mainly at the big container ports.
… but the likelihood of sufficient rates is higher
All things being equal, the capacity expansion in big container ships
will ramp up price pressure primarily in that segment, but ultimately
across the entire sector. However, most of the big container ships do
not compete directly with smaller ships that mainly provide feeder
services or operate on less busy routes and where the volume of
orders is not nearly so large. In addition, the market entry of ultralarge
ships brings with it the need for smaller feeder vessels. This
makes it very likely that individual routes and certain sizes of ship
will encounter temporary bottlenecks that will probably result in
higher prices.
The friendly economic environment should, however, also allow the
sector as a whole to generate adequate average profits over the
next few years. Also, market observers like Drewry expect that the
demand for container shipping will grow faster than the supply of
new capacity over the next few years. And slow steaming is an
option for flexibly adjusting capacity to potentially lower demand.
Slow steaming could even become the rule rather than the
exception for individual shipping lines and on particular routes since
many ships have been equipped or refitted accordingly in recent
years. Operating at slower speeds usually also boosts reliability
(meeting delivery deadlines). Of course it is also clear that when
demand rises sharply and rates are high that shipping lines will
always seek to increase the number of round-trips per ship.
Overall, the problem of overcapacity has thus eased currently. And
on the demand side, too, the risks are modest at present: we expect
6 March 28, 2011

Container shipping: Successful turnaround
Supply growing slower than
demand
% yoy, based on TEU
15
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Container shipping fleet
Container throughput
2010: estimates; 2011-2015: forecast
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Source: Drewry 16
Transhipment share rising
Transhipment as a proportion of
container shipping
160
120
80
40
0
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Transhipment share, %, right
Transhipment, million TEU, left
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Drewry 17
world trade to grow by 7-8% in both 2011 and 2012. In addition, the
fleet capacity should grow less in both years than the average in the
preceding decade. We have used growth in world trade and fleet
capacity as explanatory variables to forecast the development of the
HARPEX Shipping Index (an aggregate charter rate index) in 2011
and 2012 as part of an econometric model. It forecasts a significant
double-digit increase in this charter rate index in both years. 5
Outlook intact – limiting factors in view
As previously mentioned, the medium-term outlook for container
shipping remains bright with annual growth in container throughput
expected to average 7-8% until 2015. Going forward, momentum
will continue to be generated by the established stalwarts: the
continuing increase in the international division of labour, rising
incomes and consumption opportunities in many emerging markets
and the thereby initiated trade flows are the most important drivers
on the demand side. Rising incomes in important emerging markets
– above all in China – may also enable the sector to mitigate the
problem of unequal flows and thus reduce the share of empty
container journeys (2009: 21%); this would result in considerable
cost savings. To date, on routes from China to Europe and the US
the share of laden containers is higher than on the return leg.
On the supply side productivity improvements suggest that container
shipping will continue to post high growth rates. These include larger
ships (and growing transhipment shares) as well as more efficient
loading and unloading systems at the terminals. In addition, the
containerisation level will increase worldwide; however, the
containerisation level at many ports is already high, which makes a
further increase virtually impossible. Slow steaming cancels out
some of the productivity gains, unless high freight rates make faster
speeds more economically lucrative.
Despite this generally rosy outlook the container shipping sector
faces many challenges that may limit its growth potential:
— Maritime shipping is becoming the focus of national and
international climate and environmental policy. Discussion is
currently underway about a variety of measures that could
mitigate the negative ecological impact of shipping (e.g. CO2 and
pollutant emissions). These include emissions trading, efficiency
standards or reducing the sulphur content in fuels. In the end, the
shipping lines face higher costs because they will have to invest
in their fleets in order to comply with the new standards. In
addition, the sector’s competitiveness relative to other modes of
transport is declining. In terms of energy consumption per
transported tonne, though, maritime shipping remains the most
efficient mode of transport.
— Capacity bottlenecks at the ports (e.g. terminals, inland seaport
traffic) can result in waiting times for container ships as could
often be observed, for instance, on the east coast of the US
before the crisis. Insufficient shipping depths also act as a brake
on the sector’s growth. The growing importance of very large
container ships makes a deepening of the waterways/shipping
lanes necessary at many ports (e.g. in Hamburg). The expansion
5 The short support period does admittedly limit the meaningfulness of the model.
The relevant test statistics are admittedly good and are accompanied by the
respectively “right” sign. The confidence interval is, however, comparatively wide
because of the small number of variables.
March 28, 2011 7

Oil becoming more
expensive
USD
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Oil price, USD per barrel*, left
Heavy oil, USD per tonne, right
* Monthly average prices for Brent, Dubai and WTI
crude
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Sources: HWWI, WEFA 18
Current Issues
of the port infrastructure required by the transport industry often
flounders because of financial limitations or political resistance.
— Fuel and lubricant prices will continue rising, because demand
for oil tends to rise faster than supply.
— During the global recession protectionist ideas experienced a
renaissance in many countries. The danger that the liberalisation
of global trade becomes mired permanently is at least no lower
now than before the crisis.
— The rising number of pirate attacks in several maritime regions
means higher costs for ship owners, for instance for insurance or
for modifying their ships (e.g. installing shelters for the crews).
— The availability of qualified nautical personnel is a medium to
long-term challenge for the sector; personnel costs are set to
rise.
All in all, the sector’s growth prospects are subject to political and
economic challenges. Ultimately, however, global container shipping
will remain the fastest growing mode of transport over the medium
term.
Eric Heymann (+49 69 910-31730, eric.heymann@db.com)
© Copyright 2011. Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research, D-60262 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “Deutsche Bank
Research”.
The above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the author, which do
not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions expressed may differ
from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Deutsche Bank. The above information is provided for informational purposes only
and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the
information given or the assessments made.
In Germany this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht.
In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange regulated by
the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK. This information is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong
Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this information is approved and/or
distributed by Deutsche Securities Limited, Tokyo Branch. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any
financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.
Printed by: HST Offsetdruck Schadt & Tetzlaff GbR, Dieburg
ISSN Print: 1612-314X / ISSN Internet and e-mail: 1612-3158
8 March 28, 2011