Low interest rates pressuring US bank margins - Deutsche Bank ...
Low interest rates pressuring US bank margins - Deutsche Bank ...
Low interest rates pressuring US bank margins - Deutsche Bank ...
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Research Briefing<br />
Global financial markets<br />
May 11, 2012<br />
Authors<br />
Jan Schildbach<br />
+49 69 910-31717<br />
jan.schildbach@db.com<br />
Sarah Lantz, Robert Bosch Stiftung Fellow<br />
Editor<br />
Bernhard Speyer<br />
<strong>Deutsche</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> AG<br />
DB Research<br />
Frankfurt am Main<br />
Germany<br />
E-mail: marketing.dbr@db.com<br />
Fax: +49 69 910-31877<br />
www.dbresearch.com<br />
Managing Director<br />
Thomas Mayer<br />
<strong>Low</strong> <strong>interest</strong> <strong>rates</strong> <strong>pressuring</strong><br />
<strong>US</strong> <strong>bank</strong> <strong>margins</strong><br />
— With <strong>interest</strong> <strong>rates</strong> likely to remain at depressed levels for years<br />
to come in most developed <strong>bank</strong>ing markets, the focus is on<br />
the impact this may have on <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong> and <strong>bank</strong>s’ net<br />
<strong>interest</strong> income.<br />
— Historical data for the <strong>US</strong> shows that with a flattening of the<br />
yield curve, <strong>margins</strong> face significant pressure as long-term<br />
<strong>rates</strong> draw closer to short-term <strong>rates</strong>. This margin compression<br />
is exacerbated as funding costs approach the zero bound,<br />
while asset yields continue to fall.<br />
— Whether the recent uptick in <strong>US</strong> commercial lending volumes<br />
will compensate for the negative price effect from lower <strong>interest</strong><br />
<strong>margins</strong> on overall net <strong>interest</strong> income remains in doubt.<br />
The <strong>US</strong> <strong>bank</strong>ing industry in 2011 was a strongly profitable one: return on assets<br />
rose across <strong>bank</strong>s of all sizes and net income was close to pre-crisis levels. A<br />
closer look, however, reveals this profitability was mainly a result of lower loan<br />
loss provisions. Provisions declined year-over-year for the ninth consecutive<br />
quarter, but now appear to be levelling off. Whether or not <strong>bank</strong>s can continue<br />
these profitability trends remains a key concern in the near term given sluggish<br />
credit growth and a lingering low-<strong>interest</strong> rate environment.<br />
Despite the growing importance of non-<strong>interest</strong> income sources such as fees,<br />
much focus is currently on <strong>bank</strong>s’ primary revenue driver, net <strong>interest</strong> income<br />
(which, in 2011, represented more than 64% of total <strong>US</strong> <strong>bank</strong> revenues). Net<br />
<strong>interest</strong> income is a reflection of <strong>bank</strong>s’ traditional earnings strategy: the rate<br />
spread between borrowing short and lending long, or more broadly the<br />
differential between asset yields and funding costs. In previous recessions, <strong>bank</strong><br />
balance sheets benefited from lower <strong>interest</strong> <strong>rates</strong> as funding costs dropped<br />
more quickly than asset <strong>rates</strong>. In fact, <strong>US</strong> <strong>bank</strong>s expanded net <strong>interest</strong> income<br />
by 7% p.a. between 2007 and 2010. As low <strong>rates</strong> persist, however, loan-todeposit<br />
spreads fall as prices adjust, and longer-term securities, held as assets,<br />
roll over to lower-yielding securities (the same holds true on the funding side, of<br />
course, helping to extend the positive impact of falling <strong>interest</strong> <strong>rates</strong> into the<br />
future). The net impact on <strong>bank</strong>s’ net <strong>interest</strong> levels may be negative, though. In<br />
previous recoveries, this effect has been offset by increased loan volumes,<br />
allowing <strong>bank</strong>s to return to sustainable growth levels. Furthermore, as an<br />
economy recovers, <strong>bank</strong>s may quickly benefit as short-term assets roll over at<br />
higher <strong>rates</strong>.
<strong>Low</strong> <strong>interest</strong> <strong>rates</strong> <strong>pressuring</strong> <strong>US</strong> <strong>bank</strong> <strong>margins</strong><br />
The current <strong>bank</strong>ing environment is not conforming to history, however. The<br />
initial benefit of low <strong>rates</strong> has waned without the concurrent growth in lending.<br />
Although funding costs continue to decline, they may not be enough to offset<br />
lower asset yields and they are approaching a limit of zero (see chart 1). With<br />
the Fed announcing no intention to raise <strong>rates</strong> until the end of 2014, this limit<br />
could quickly constrain <strong>bank</strong> profitability. Although there are indicators of a pickup<br />
in lending across recent quarters, it may not be enough to make up for the<br />
compression in net <strong>interest</strong> income. Furthermore, alternative revenue drivers<br />
like non-<strong>interest</strong> income so far have not provided much support.<br />
Funding costs on a downward trend, nearing zero bound 1<br />
%<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11<br />
Sources: St. Louis Fed, FDIC<br />
Asset yields Funding costs of earning assets Fed funds rate<br />
Net <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong> (defined as net <strong>interest</strong> income over average earning<br />
assets) were 3.6% at year-end 2011, just 11% higher from the 20-year low of<br />
3.2% in the last quarter of 2006 (see chart 2). After the initial benefit from low<br />
<strong>rates</strong>, net <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong> are likely to continue to trend downwards as funding<br />
costs bottom out and asset yields continue to fall. The chart below demonst<strong>rates</strong><br />
that net <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong> spiked not only after the most recent crisis but also<br />
during previous recessionary rate environments, as evidenced during the <strong>US</strong><br />
recession in the early 1990s and again in 2001-02. In the second half of the<br />
1980s, the decline in inflation and the reduction in the Fed funds rate led to a<br />
corresponding surge in net <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong>.<br />
More precisely, it may be the shape of the yield curve (which is heavily<br />
influenced by the official <strong>interest</strong> rate) that largely determines the <strong>interest</strong><br />
margin. The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasuries demonst<strong>rates</strong> that as<br />
the yield curve flattens or becomes inverted (indicated in chart 2 by near-zero or<br />
negative values), net <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong> tend to fall. For example, at the recent net<br />
<strong>interest</strong> margin low in late-2006, the yield curve was inverted. By contrast, as<br />
spreads widen, net <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong> follow suit. The yield curve is likely to<br />
continue its flattening trend as long-term <strong>rates</strong> draw closer to short-term <strong>rates</strong>.<br />
The Fed’s recent “Operation Twist” is explicitly targeting lower long-term <strong>rates</strong>,<br />
with the intention of boosting credit volume in products that track longer-term<br />
Treasury yields such as mortgages and corporate bonds. As a result, further<br />
compressions in net <strong>interest</strong> <strong>margins</strong> are likely in the near term.<br />
2 | May 11, 2012 Research Briefing
<strong>Low</strong> <strong>interest</strong> <strong>rates</strong> <strong>pressuring</strong> <strong>US</strong> <strong>bank</strong> <strong>margins</strong><br />
Considering <strong>rates</strong> are likely to be sustained at low levels for the foreseeable<br />
future, how long can lower provisions cover for the sluggish credit environment?<br />
In recent quarters, <strong>bank</strong>s have benefited from lower reserves to protect<br />
profitability, but indicators show that this trend is levelling off. It is clear that loan<br />
growth will be the critical factor to offset the negative impact of <strong>interest</strong> <strong>rates</strong>.<br />
Lending, driven primarily by commercial and industrial loans, grew for the third<br />
consecutive quarter through the end of 2011. Nevertheless, the housing market<br />
remains sluggish and it remains unclear whether the increase in non-consumer<br />
credit volumes will compensate for a lower net <strong>interest</strong> margin in the near term.<br />
Jan Schildbach (+49 69 910-31717, jan.schildbach@db.com)<br />
Sarah Lantz<br />
© Copyright 2012. <strong>Deutsche</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> AG, DB Research, 60262 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “<strong>Deutsche</strong><br />
<strong>Bank</strong> Research”.<br />
The above information does not constitute the provision of investment, legal or tax advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the author,<br />
which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of <strong>Deutsche</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions<br />
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Internet/E-mail: ISSN 2193-5963<br />
Interest <strong>margins</strong> follow the yield curve 2<br />
%<br />
15<br />
13<br />
11<br />
9<br />
7<br />
5<br />
3<br />
1<br />
-1<br />
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11<br />
Fed funds rate (left) 10-Yr over 2-Yr Treasury yields (left) Net <strong>interest</strong> margin (right)<br />
Sources: St. Louis Fed, FDIC, DB Research<br />
3 | May 11, 2012 Research Briefing<br />
4.3<br />
4.1<br />
3.9<br />
3.7<br />
3.5<br />
3.3<br />
3.1<br />
2.9<br />
2.7