Feasibility study for an Estonian Materials Technology Programme

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Feasibility study for an Estonian Materials Technology Programme
4. Conclusions and recommendations
4.2 Mind-game: Extreme Future scenarios for materials technology in Estonia
The following scenarios are a mind-game about what could happen if one of the following extremes happened.
The scenarios only take into account the fact that national governmental funding can be changed
and makes assumptions of how the university and the industry would react to these policy changes. It also
assumes that the overall amount of governmental funding remains the same during the following 5-10 years.
All the assumptions are predictions based on the data gathered so far and especially the point of the funding
staying the same for 5-10 years depends very much on external funding sources such as the European
Commission, the economy of the country and the general science and technology policy of the Estonia. The
scenario that only fundamental research would be funded is not discussed as the benefits would take longer
than 10 years to realise.
4.2.1 Extreme Scenario 1: National Governmental Funding given only to applied
research that benefits the existing manufacturing industry
Funding is mostly given to joint projects between companies and universities
Some focus on which industries/themes should be selected to ensure real impact in the selected themes
In 5-10 years
The industry will have more educated people => more in-house R&D
There are joint projects between universities and industry
Some companies are moving up in the value chain
All research is done based on company needs
Companies are ready to invest more in R&D
Companies are starting to do joint R&D projects with foreign partners.
Despite some companies moving up the value chain, most likely many companies have left the country
or gone bankrupt due to higher personnel costs.
Trade-off and risks:
Focus is on traditional business areas.
No new business areas are likely to emerge.
Unsure if this effort ensures global competiveness in 2020, especially if there are too many focus
areas.
Condition: Companies are actively involved in R&D, ready to learn and recruit people.
4.2.2 Scenario 2: National Governmental Funding given only to applied research that
benefits creation of new high-technology companies
To have an impact, this approach needs more public funding than the previous scheme. The support is
also needed for a longer period of time.
There is more risk, but also much more opportunities to create new businesses and renew and modernize
the industry.
In 5-10 years
Potentially a set of new companies established in new business areas.
Industry structure slowly renewing.
New technologies will be developed in companies.
Impact on economy most likely still small
High-tech companies start to turn education in a new direction as more competent people are needed
in these areas
Materials technology companies tend to grow additional business around them as they are at the
beginning of the value-chain => new clusters will emerge.
Trade-off and risks:
As the existing manufacturing industry should develop by itself with their own money there is a risk
they won’t.
The high-tech companies don’t make it or they are bought out too early.
A big risk is that venture capital is not found early enough.
Fundamental research on a broad scale is not funded => too focused technology development?