Business Aircraft Market Forecast 2012 - 2031 - Bombardier

current market drivers
the bombardier business Aircraft market
forecast uses an econometric model based
on several market drivers. the long-term
portion of the forecast is explained by both
the economic growth and the expected rate
of business jet fleet penetration in each
of the forecast regions.
economic market drivers
global economy
in 2011, multiple events slowed global GdP
growth. Political upheavals included major
popular uprisings that swept across the
middle east and north Africa, while europe’s
fiscal austerity measures, sovereign debt and
banking problems also constrained global
growth. emerging markets, which have been
the engine of the world economy for years,
showed signs of slowing. As a result, in 2011,
the world economy grew at an annual rate
of 2.7%.
for 2012, the world economy is expected
to grow at an annual rate of 2.4%, and to
stabilize at approximately 3.2% per year over
the longer term. Growth, however, remains
uneven. While emerging markets and most
natural resource-exporting economies are
expanding at a rapid pace, the output in
most advanced economies is still far below
potential.
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
1.4%
Source: IHS Global Insight, February 2012.
in its April 2012 economic outlook, the
organization for economic cooperation and
development (oecd) stated: “the global
economy is moving away from the cliff edge,
with short-term prospects clearly improving
compared to the situation in the end of 2011.”
north America looks stronger, suggesting
firm growth. in the united states, consumer
confidence is strengthening, unemployment
is falling and credit growth is recovering
strongly, driving the recovery.
WORLD GDP GROWTH FORECAST
% Change Year-over-Year, 2008-2014
-2.2%
4.1%
2.7%
bombArdier business AircrAft
Market forecast 2012-2031
2.4%
3.1%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3.8%
2014
the World economy
is to grow on average
at 3.2% per year over
the next 20 years.
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