Business Aircraft Market Forecast 2012 - 2031 - Bombardier

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current market drivers the growth in the number of branded charter operators is more recent. these operators offer on-demand lift and compete on tripspecific pricing. branded charter operators, like Vistajet or XoJet, are characterized by sophisticated operations infrastructure and greater use of airline-style scheduling practices to minimize deadhead costs. in 2008, branded charter operator orders represented approximately 20% to 30% of total business jet orders. in 2009, the aftermath of the economic downturn caused branded charter operators to defer and cancel orders. Large fleet operators are growing again and have placed orders for additional business jets in 2010 and 2011. AIR-TRAVEL OPTIONS in the near-term, fractional market demand will be mainly for fleet replacement. fractional Business jet market operators are expected to account for approximately On-demand 10% service of business Business jet jet deliveries ownership over the next 20 years. on oering al ce. First-class commercial airlines fractional operators are expected to account for Full ownership Fractional ownership Jet-card approximately programs Charters 10% of Air Taxis /Branded Charters business jet deliveries over the next 20 years. - Personalized service + + Hours Per Year – 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Commercial – aviation oering Low cost airlines Commercial airlines Source: Bombardier Aerospace. AIR-TRAVEL OPTIONS First-class commercial airlines Air Taxis On-demand service Business jet ownership Charters /Branded Charters Business jet market Jet-card programs BUSINESS JET FRACTIONAL FLEET Units, 2002-2011 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 bombArdier business AircrAft Market forecast 2012-2031 Fractional ownership Full ownership - Personalized service + 2010 2011 Source: Jetnet. Includes the 4 major fractional providers: Flexjet, NetJets (all subsidiaries), CitationAir, Flight Options. 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 20 BUSIN 2002 2003 200 Source: Jetnet. Includes the 4 majo
current market drivers business Jet Penetration in groWth markets business jet penetration is a measure of the number of business jets in each of the forecast regions relative to the size of that region’s economy, as represented by gross domestic product (GdP). to normalize for differing population sizes in each region, penetration rates and GdP are best compared on a per capita basis. the penetration rate of business jets by region is highly variable. the most established market for business jets, north America, has the world’s largest fleet, which continues to grow, but slowly. china, in contrast, has a very small number of business jets relative to the size of its economy and its business jet fleet is now entering a rapid growth phase. Longer term business jet fleet growth by region is best represented by an expected market maturity curve resembling an “s” shape, with the fastest growth occurring in the early phase of market adoption and slowing growth as the market matures. Projected GdP growth can be used to forecast the likely trajectory of the business jet penetration for each region. realization of fleet growth implicitly assumes expected adoption and acceptance of business jets and the progressive removal of barriers, notably Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale) 10,000 1,000 100 10 MIDDLE-EAST & AFRICA 1st driving force: GDP growth LATIN AMERICA the lack of adequate infrastructure and regulatory limitations. As the economy develops, the expected growth of the business jet fleet in each region can reasonably be predicted over the longer term. once fleet sizes are netted of aircraft retirements, business jet deliveries can be derived for each region. PENETRATION RATES BY REGION Fleet per Capita vs. GDP per Capita, 1960-2011 ASIA GDP per Capita ($, Log Scale) NORTH AMERICA EUROPE & RUSSIA Average growth path 2nd driving force: removal of barriers 1 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN population project, Bombardier forecast. Includes Very Light Jets. bombArdier business AircrAft Market forecast 2012-2031 the penetration rate of business jets by region is highly variable; each region is at a different stage. 21
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Page 3 and 4: executive summary bombArdier busine
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Page 47 and 48: conclusion the business aviation ma
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Business Aircraft Market Forecast 2012 - 2031 - Bombardier

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