Facts and Arguments about the Introduction of Initiative and ...

5-1: The art of the citizens’ initiative
Below is a checklist of some basic rules that must be taken
into account when launching a citizens’ initiative. The most
important sources are: Jim Shultz, ‘The Initiative Cookbook’,
and Michael Seipel & Thomas Maier, ‘Triumph der
Bürger!’ (The Citizens’ Triumph!).
General rules
• Usually, the side that convinces the undecided or floating
voters wins.
• The strongest force behind the politics of the referendum is
public discontent. One should carefully establish whether
there is discontent and whether this can be mobilised.
• Referendum initiatives usually have majority public backing
to begin with. This tends to drop off during the campaign
under pressure from the opponents. A slide from a
70% to a 51% support position can happen quite easily; a
move in the reverse direction is far harder.
• Referendums are lost on the weakest point in the proposal.
If the proposal has a weak point somewhere, the opponents
will focus on that and exaggerate the weakness.
Voters have very little inclination to vote for a proposal
that has an obvious weak point, even when the main body
of the proposal is sound.
• Polarisation is inevitable. The voters must clearly see who
is for and against the proposal and why.
• Being able to show that ones opponents have a financial
interest in the outcome is an extraordinarily effective way
of winning support.
Questions at the outset
• Is there sufficient public support? Opinion polls can be used,
but remember that public opinion is fickle and can change.
• Is there a simple, winning message? Compare the opponents’
possible message or key slogan with your own.
• How strong is the support base? Are there enough organisations
that can step into the spotlight? Are the organisations
that the public would naturally expect to support the
initiative also actually in favour of it?
• Is there any money? Fundraising must start early. The
funding must be clear and understandable. It must also
be realistic and the accounts must always be up to date
and readily available (e.g. for the media).
• Is there expertise readily available? Ensure that there are
enough people capable of dealing with technical problems
or political disturbances during debates and speeches.
• Is it possible to take advantage of any general or local elections?
Holding the referendum at the same time as elections
can help to increase turnout – important if there are
turnout quorums.
Phrasing the question
• The initiative/referendum proposal must be clear and
precise. The wording must be unambiguous and the proposal
must be made public as early as possible.
• The proposal must be drawn up with all the potential
allies in mind. Do not include irrelevant aspects that
might frighten off possible allies. The opposite is also
possible: ‘fence sitters’ (organisations that tend to adopt
a neutral position) can take part in the coalition if certain
aspects that are important to them are included.
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• The proposal must be drawn up with the public in mind.
Does the proposal have a broad appeal? Does it have an
Achilles heel?
• Will the authorities accept the referendum result as binding?
If not, then tying political parties to it can be an option:
get them to promise to accept the result well before
the referendum.
• If there is a victory in the referendum, can the result be
contested in the courts? (Obtain legal advice)
Coalition
• A coalition which includes unusual allies strengthens the
credibility of the initiative (e.g. ‘conservative’ and ‘progressive’
political parties, employers and employees, etc.)
• The core partners of the coalition must be available from
the start.
• Good agreements between coalition partners about funding,
a common public position, the division of duties and
the appointment of spokesmen and -women are essential.
Signature collection
• Shultz writes: “The Zen of signature gathering is, don’t
argue with anyone.” Signature collection and campaigning
are therefore best done separately. Being tempted into
a discussion lasting a quarter of an hour or more with one
or more passers-by is not an efficient use of time during
a signature gathering campaign. You have to try to maximize
productivity when collecting signatures.
• Make the link to the next step in the campaign. Signature
collection enables the volunteers to build up some reserves
of effort and commitment. If these reserves are neglected
when the signature threshold has been achieved,
it makes it more difficult to remobilise the real campaign
some months later.
• Monitor the validity of the signatures. Signatures can be
obtained from people with the wrong place of residence or
nationality, or names and addresses can be unreadable or
wrong. You should take an invalidity rate of 10% to 20%
into account.
• Arrange a media event for the submission of the signatures.
The campaign
• “Keep it simple and repeat the central message over and
over again.”
• Also appeal to people’s emotions. Someone who appears
both expertly and emotionally committed comes across
well.
• Retain a strong hold on the initiative during debates. Anyone
who gets pinned down by their opponent on a sidetrack
has lost. Beware of sneak attacks, particularly on the
campaign’s integrity.
• In particular, established parties with power almost always
play on public uncertainty and fears and drag up
unrelated issues. You have to consciously anticipate this.
References to foreign precedents in connection with the
proposal can be effective in disarming fear scenarios.
• Parties in power will also address the public as individuals
(‘Your social security’ instead of ‘Our ...’) and link this
to an appeal for confidence in ‘solid values’, meaning the
parties in power and their leaders. Remedy: address the
public as a group of responsible people seeking common
ground with each other.