Applications of tourism, transport meteorology ... - E-Library - WMO

Vol. 55 (2) 

April 2006 

Climate serving people 

Weather and crops and 

the climate in 2005 

www.wmo.int 

feature articles - interviews - news - book reviews - calendar 

Applications of 

meteorology: 

tourism, 

transport 

and 

energy 

International air navigation 

Coastal zone management 

Offshore industry 

Wind energy in China 

Tourism in Barbados and 

Mauritius 

Safety at sea 

Sustainable development 

in the western 

Indian Ocean

The World 

Meteorological 

Organization 

(WMO) 

Weather • Climate • Water 

WMO Headquarters building 

WMO is a specialized agency of the 

United Nations. 

Its purposes are: 

To facilitate worldwide cooperation in the 

establishment of networks of stations 

for the making of meteorological observations 

as well as hydrological and other 

geophysical observations related to 

meteorology, and to promote the establishment 

and maintenance of centres 

charged with the provision of meteorological 

and related services; 

To promote the establishment and maintenance 

of systems for the rapid 

exchange of meteorological and related 

information; 

To promote standardization of meteorological 

and related observations and to 

ensure the uniform publication of observations 

and statistics; 

To further the application of meteorology 

to aviation, shipping, water problems, 

agriculture and other human activities; 

To promote activities in operational 

hydrology and to further close cooperation 

between Meteorological and 

Hydrological Services; 

To encourage research and training in 

meteorology and, as appropriate, in 

related fields, and to assist in 

coordinating the international aspects of 

such research and training. 

The World Meteorological 

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is the supreme body of the Organization. It 

brings together delegates of all Members 

once every four years to determine general 

policies for the fulfilment of the purposes 

of the Organization. 

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is composed of 37 directors of National 

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Services serving in an individual capacity; it 

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task it is to coordinate meteorological, 

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their respective Regions. 

The eight technical commissions 

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Executive Council 

President 

A.I. Bedritsky (Russian Federation) 

First Vice-President 

A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of Iran) 

Second Vice-President 

T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean 

Territories) 

Third Vice-President 

M.A. Rabiolo (Argentina) 

Ex officio members of the 

Executive Council (presidents of 

regional associations) 

Africa (Region I) 

M.S. Mhita (United Republic of Tanzania) 

Asia (Region II) 

A.M.H. Isa (Bahrain) 

South America (Region III) 

R. Michelini (Uruguay) (acting) 

North America, Central America and the 

Caribbean (Region IV) 

C. Fuller (Belize) 

South-West Pacific (Region V) 

A. Ngari (Cook Islands) (acting) 

Europe (Region VI) 

D.K. Keuerleber-Burk (Switzerland) 

Elected members of the Executive 

Council 

M.L. Bah Guinea 

F. Cadarso González Spain (acting) 

M. Capaldo Italy (acting) 

Q.-uz-Z. Chaudhry Pakistan 

M.D. Everell Canada 

J.J. Kelly United States of America 

W. Kusch Germany (acting) 

G.B. Love Australia (acting) 

J. Lumsden New Zealand 

P. Manso Costa Rica (acting) 

J. Mitchell United Kingdom (acting) 

F.P. Mote Ghana 

A.D. Moura Brazil (acting) 

J.R. Mukabana Kenya 

S. Nair India (acting) 

I. Obrusnik Czech Republic (acting) 

H.H. Oliva Chile 

Qin Dahe China 

J.K. Rabadi Jordan (acting) 

B.T. Sekoli Lesotho 

M. Shawky Saadallah Egypt (acting) 

(six seats vacant) 

Presidents of technical 

commissions 

Aeronautical Meteorology 

N.D. Gordon 

Agricultural Meteorology 

R.P. Motha 

Atmospheric Sciences 

M. Béland 

Basic Systems 

A.I. Gusev 

Climatology 

P. Bessemoulin 

Hydrology 

B. Stewart 

Instruments and Methods of Observation 

R.P. Canterford (acting) 

Oceanography and Marine Meteorology 

P. Dexter and J.-L. Fellous 

Tourism is one of the world’s largest 

economic sectors and is developing rapidly. 

In some countries, it is the main source of 

income. Photo: Picture Newsletter 

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The journal 

of the World 

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Vol. 55 No. 2 

April 2006 

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Contents 

In this issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 

Interview with Mr Francesco Frangialli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 

Interview with Sir David King . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Applications of meteorology for tourism in Mauritius 

76 

by Mohamudally Beebeejaun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Meteorological applications for coastal management in Barbados 

79 

by Lorna Inniss, Antonio Rowe, Angelique Brathwaite, Ramon Roach 

WMO and ICAO work together for international air navigation 

84 

by O.M. Turpeinen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 

Maritime information for safety at sea by Henri Savina . . . . . . . . . . 

Wind energy in China: towards a better service 

96 

by Zhai Panmao and Yang Zhenbin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Offshore industry: ocean information for safety 

104 

by Johannes Guddal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Marine applications for sustainable development in the 

108 

western Indian Ocean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 

Making climate serve the people by Michael H. Glantz . . . . . . . . . . . 116 

Deluge in Mumbai, India by U.S. De, G.S. Prakasa Rao, D.M. Rase . . 126 

The global climate system in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 

Global crop production review 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Winner of an international weather prediction competition 

134 

100 years ago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 

50 years ago . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 

Reviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 

New books received . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 

Recent WMO publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 

Obituary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 

Visits of the Secretary-General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 

Staff matters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 

Calendar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 

News of WMO activities and recent events may be found in WMO’s 

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(http://www.wmo.int/news/news.html) and on the Web pages of WMO 

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70 

In this issue 

Tourism is one of the world’s largest 

economic sectors and it is developing 

rapidly. For some countries, especially 

Small Island Developing States, 

it is the main source of income. In 

parts of the developed world, entire 

regions are economically dependent 

on the tourists who go there to visit 

or to practise sports. 

Francesco Frangialli, Secretary-General 

of the United Nations World 

Tourism Organization and himself a 

native of a winter sports area, 

responds to our questions concerning, 

inter alia, the impact of weather and 

climate on this important industry and 

the impact of tourism on climate and 

the environment. 

Tourism is the second most important 

economic activity in Mauritius 

and is, moreover, in constant growth. 

Its unsustainable development, however, 

may aggress the marine environment, 

while, conversely, a 

degraded coastal area may hinder the 

growth of tourism. Mohamudally Bee- 

beejaun explains how Mauritius is targeting 

an environmentally sustainable 

growth of tourism, which will include 

better preparation against natural hazards. 

This being achieved by a close 

relationship between the National 

Meteorological Service and tourism 

managers. 

Barbados has a similar situation: a 

vital tourism industry, related environmental 

problems—notably coastal 

erosion—and a vulnerability to natural 

hazards, which exacerbate those 

problems. Four members of the 

Coastal Zone Management Unit 

describe their programme, which 

focuses on shoreline stabilization 

through the use of coastal engineering, 

water-quality monitoring, protection 

of coastal ecosystems and the 

control of development through strict 

planning guidelines. They work 

closely with meteorologists to 

improve predictions with respect to 

the potential impacts of rain, wind 

and wind-generated waves. 

Since its inception, air transport has 

been one of the main users of meteorological 

information. Pilots and airtraffic 

controllers need information on 

wind direction and speed, temperature, 

surface and upper winds, visibility 

and runway visual range. The 

International Civil Aviation Organization 

(ICAO) and WMO work closely 

together to ensure that aviation 

requirements can be met without 

unnecessary overlap of activities. 

O.M. Turpeinen sets out the working 

arrangements that are in place. He 

expects that the production of forecasts 

will become more efficient and, 

ultimately, will be fully automated. 

All marine vessels are highly vulnerable 

to weather and oceanic natural 

hazards. Henri Savina explains how 

marine safety information is gathered 

and provided under the overall coordination 

of the International Maritime 

Organization (IMO). Requirements of 

maritime users have grown in 

response to change and innovation in 

ship design, economic and competitive 

pressures and increasingly 

sophisticated shipboard technology. 

He highlights some of the key issues 

for WMO and IMO in the future. 

Zhai Panmao and Yang Zhenbin discuss 

how the development of wind as 

a significant energy source is being 

managed in a proactive and sustainable 

way by the China Meteorological 

Administration. Major factors being 

taken into consideration are climate 

change and the prediction of wind 

energy and extreme weather conditions. 

Offshore structures are exposed to 

maritime hazards. Johannes Guddal 

explains how a well-developed plan 

of action, based on design preparedness 

and operations planning can be 

used by the offshore industry to mitigate 

accidents and damage occurring 

from extreme weather and related 

wave events. 

The Western Indian Ocean Marine 

Applications Project aims to contribute 

to the sustainable management 

and optimum exploitation of 

marine and land resources. This will 

be achieved through efficient planning 

using improved weather forecasts 

and climate and ocean predictions. 

It therefore focuses on building 

the capacity of national institutions in 

the relevant fields. 

An exceptional feature in this issue is 

an interview with Sir David King, 

Chief Scientific Adviser to the United 

Kingdom Government. Other important 

articles are “Making climate 

serve the people”, by M. Glantz, 

reviews of the global climate system 

and of global crop production in 2005 

and an analysis of a phenomenal rainfall 

event in Mumbai (India) in 2005.

Interview 

with 

Mr Francesco 

Frangialli 

Secretary-General of the United 

Nations World Tourism Organization 

(UNWTO) 

Tourism is one of the world’s 

largest economic sectors and it is 

developing rapidly. In some 

countries, it is the main source of 

income. How do you see its 

future? 

The strong and sustained rise of 

tourism over the past 50 years is one 

of the most remarkable phenomena 

of our time. Tourism has shown itself 

to be a strong contributor to the 

balance of payments, as well as a 

highly labour-intensive activity that 

opens up opportunities for the small 

businesses that provide it with products 

and services. Its impact is 

particularly strong in local farming, 

fishing and handicraft and even the 

construction industry. In developing 

countries, especially, tourism creates 

many direct and indirect jobs. It represents 

fertile ground for private 

initiative. It serves as a foothold for 

the development of a market economy 

where small and medium-sized 

enterprises can expand and flourish. 

In poor rural areas, it often constitutes 

the only alternative to subsistence 

farming, which is in decline. 

The number of international tourist 

arrivals has grown from 25 million in 

1950 to 808 million in 2005. This 

increase in physical flows is equivalent 

to an average annual growth of 7 per 

cent over a long period. The revenues 

generated by these arrivals—not 

including airline ticket sales and 

revenues from domestic tourism— 

have risen by 11 per cent a year 

(adjusted for inflation) over the same 

time-span. This rate of growth far 

outstrips that of the world economy as 

a whole. International tourism receipts 

reached US$ 622 billion in 2004, 

making it one of the largest categories 

of international trade. This trend is 

about to continue, despite a series of 

natural disasters and terrorist threats. 

We expect international tourist arrivals 

to increase to 1.6 billion by 2020. 

How does weather impact tourism 

and its sustainable development? 

What is the impact on decisions 

taken without the use of weather 

or climate information and of 

using incorrect or uncertain 

information? 

For tourism businesses, accurate 

weather and climate information, as 

well as the prediction of extreme 

weather events, are becoming 

increasingly important, given that the 

programming of many tourism activities 

is heavily climate-dependent, and 

that insurance practices in tourism are 

greatly impacted by natural hazards. 

It is obvious that, if the planning and 

daily operation of tourism activities are 

carried out without adequate weather 

information, these can greatly affect 

the comfort, health and safety of holiday-makers, 

jeopardizing the overall 

tourist experience. It is especially true 

for beach, nature-tourism and other 

outdoor activities, where the timing of 

programmes, the preparation of 

proper equipment, clothing and other 

accessories, are highly weather- and 

climate-dependent. 

Regarding the longer-term sustainable 

development of tourism, I believe that 

climate factors and accurate climate 

information will be increasingly determinant. 

Tourism forms the backbone 

of the economy in many local communities 

worldwide. Adverse climatic 

conditions arising from climate 

change can seriously harm tourism 

operations and the host communities 

that depend on them. 

Many destinations can be mentioned. 

For example, how would the residents 

of Zermatt in Switzerland make 

a living without sufficient snow covering 

its emblematic peak and the 

surrounding ski slopes; how would 

tourism-related businesses in 

Chamonix in France survive without 

excursions to its famous glacier “mer 

de glace” that has been retreating 

because of atmospheric warming; or 

the surfing industry at Waikiki Beach 

in Hawaii without large waves and 

sunny weather; the tropical paradise 

of the Maldives without safe diving 

because of frequent storms, reduced 

visibility and damaged reefs, or the 

golf courses on the Costa del Sol in 

Spain without the water to keep them 

green? 

71

72 

Does the tourism sector feel it has 

enough information on weather 

and climate to plan and to serve 

clients’ interests? If not, what will 

it need from National Weather 

Services and WMO to help develop 

its activities in a sustainable 

manner? 

Weather patterns are shifting; climate 

variability and climate change will 

constitute an increasing risk for 

tourism operations in many destinations. 

Governments and the private 

sector should place importance on the 

management and use of climate information 

and incorporate climate factors 

in tourism policies, development and 

management plans. For this, effective 

coordination between environmental 

and tourism organizations is determinant 

for further research, 

awareness-raising and capacity-building, 

as well as the development and 

application of adaptation and mitigation 

measures in the tourism sector. 

We are still in the phase of raising 

awareness about weather- and 

climate-related information. An 

increasing number of severe natural 

disasters contribute to speeding up 

this process. I believe that the support 

of National Weather Services and of 

WMO is crucial for this purpose. There 

is good evidence in the travel media, 

for example on Websites where 

climate aspects are incorporated as 

part of tourist information. It is hard, 

however, to estimate to what extent 

the tourism sector uses the information 

produced by National Weather 

Services and whether it is done in an 

effective manner. This is an interesting 

subject: perhaps WMO and UNWTO 

could engage in a joint survey and 

analysis. Guidelines could then be 

developed and good practices identified 

as to how public and private 

tourism organizations—and the 

tourists themselves—could better use 

climate information. 

In this context, WTO is currently 

preparing project proposals on climatechange 

adaptation in tourism, which 

will be submitted to the Global 

Environmental Facility. A series of pilot 

projects will assist selected Small 

Island Developing States (SIDS) in 

order to develop and demonstrate 

adaptation policies and techniques for 

beach destinations and coastal 

ecosystems. National committees will 

be formed and we expect that National 

Weather Services will be fully 

involved. 

How does the tourism sector use 

weather forecasts for short-term 

decision-making? Does it also use 

climate forecasts for mid-term 

decisions and climate change 

projections for long-term planning? 

Favourable climatic conditions are key 

attractions for holiday-makers. It is 

especially true for beach destinations 

and the conventional sun-and-sea 

segment, which is still the main form 

of tourism. Tourists are attracted to 

Mediterranean coasts and tropical 

islands by ample sunshine, warm 

temperatures and little precipitation, to 

escape the harsher seasons and 

weather conditions of their home 

countries. Mountain tourism and 

winter sports are also highly dependent 

on favourable climate and weather 

conditions, such as adequate precipitation 

and snow levels. In general, 

accurate climate and weather information 

is key for planning and carrying 

out trips and outdoor activities. 

In spite of the evident importance of 

climate factors for the long-term viability 

of tourism businesses, climate 

information is used mostly for shortterm 

decision-making for tourism 

operations and programming of activities 

through weather forecasts. The 

strategic importance of climate factors 

in tourism planning and development 

was emphasized at the first 

International Conference on Climate 

Change and Tourism, convened by 

UNWTO in Djerba, Tunisia, in 2003, 

with the collaboration of six UN agencies, 

including WMO. Nevertheless, 

the use of long-term climate-change 

projections is currently very limited in 

the tourism sector and there is much 

to be done in this field. 

A SIDS pilot country project is 

currently underway in Fiji, where a 

study revealed that various coastal 

resort areas are located in zones at risk 

from tropical cyclones. It is obvious 

that, when decisions were taken on 

designating some of these areas for 

resort development, climate information 

was not taken fully into 

consideration. The project aims to 

develop a climate-change adaptation 

strategy for tourism in Fiji as part of an 

overall risk-management framework 

with a long-term perspective. Mid- and 

long-term climate change projection 

and climate information will therefore 

be critical in this process. 

How does the sector cope with 

changes in seasonal climate 

patterns? Is projected climate 

change expected to affect tourism? 

Climatic conditions are dynamically 

changing, posing new risks to tourism 

operations. The tourism sector needs 

to develop its capacity to adapt in 

order to maintain its viability, to 

continue generating socio-economic 

benefits for the host communities and 

to provide quality experiences for 

tourists. 

Climate—in the form of daily weather, 

extreme events, or gradual changes— 

impacts tourism both directly and 

indirectly. Directly, climate variability 

and changing weather patterns can 

affect the planning of tourism 

programmes and daily operations.

Changing weather patterns at holiday 

destinations can significantly affect 

holiday-makers’ comfort, their decisions 

about making trips and, finally, 

the tourist flow. For example, a 

warmer summer in Europe can reduce 

the motivation of inhabitants of northern 

countries to visit the 

Mediterranean coasts that can be 

excessively hot in summertime; destinations 

closer to home can be more 

attractive. If the usual high season of 

northern hemisphere summer months 

becomes too hot for tourists, a shift 

might occur towards taking holidays in 

cooler months, further inland or higher 

altitude areas that are cooler. Climate 

change can bring both problems and 

opportunities. The tourism sector 

needs to understand these trends in 

order to be prepared and adapt. 

Climate change can have a significant, 

indirect impact on tourism activities by 

altering the natural environment that 

represents both a key attraction and 

basic resource for tourism. Examples 

of negative impacts are coastal 

erosion, damage to coral reefs and 

other sensitive and biodiversity-rich 

ecosystems, or insufficient snow 

coverage at winter sports destinations. 

Problems with water supply 

affect a wide range of destinations, 

especially when it is considered that 

the high holiday season and increased 

demand for water coincides with dry 

periods and reduced water-supplies. 

A more personal observation will illustrate 

the overall point I wish to make. 

It so happens that, aside from my 

functions within the United Nations 

system, I am also the deputy mayor of 

my village in the French Alps, Morzine- 

Avoriaz, a community of 3 000 people 

on the Swiss border, 90 km from 

Geneva. Morzine-Avoriaz is a village 

like any other, but for the fact that it is 

a popular destination for skiing and 

other winter sports. It has an accommodation 

capacity of 37 000 beds, half 

in the valley at an altitude of 1 000 m 

and the other half in a new resort at 

1 800 m. 

As seen from my village, climate 

change is not a potential problem but a 

reality that is being experienced now. 

Nowadays, the lower limit of the snow 

cover on the southern slopes, depending 

on the year, is 200-300 m higher 

than it was 50 years ago. In the 1970s, 

at an altitude of 1 800 m, we used to 

receive 13-14 m of cumulative snowfall 

during the winter. Today, we 

receive half that: 6-7 m. Our main 

concern stems not so much from 

warming itself, but rather low precipitation 

in winter. In the neighbouring 

Chamonix Valley, the glaciers of the 

Mont Blanc massif—a major tourism 

attraction—have retreated some 

500 m, i.e. they are back to their levels 

of the 1960s, before their advance of 

the 1970s until 1983. 

In this part of the northern Alps, the ski 

industry is now concentrated at highaltitude 

resorts. It has survived, thanks 

to better ski-run grooming and the 

introduction of snow cannons, but the 

latter is only a palliative measure that 

itself creates other environmental 

problems regarding water consumption 

and visual and noise pollution. 

We are worried about the future. A 

study by the French Meteorological 

Service (Météo-France) tells us that 

the duration of snow cover, which is 

currently of the order of five months at 

1 500 m, could be reduced by 40 days 

if temperatures rise just 1.8°C. For us, 

that would mean no more snow for 

the year-end holidays or the spring 

break. Conservative estimates of 

warming in our region for the present 

century are well above 1.8°C. 

We are trying to respond by diversifying 

our tourism products, with 

increased reliance on the summer 

season and the off-season. We are 

Francesco Frangialli with Kofi Annan, 

Secretary-General of the United Nations 

making an effort to promote tourism 

that is more sustainable and to 

address mobility problems regarding 

access to the village through an urban 

transport plan and the introduction of 

electrically powered shuttles within 

the village. We are taking care to 

preserve the character of Avoriaz as a 

car-free, high-altitude resort. We want 

to reduce our contribution to greenhouse-gas 

emissions. We are well 

aware that we will not solve the 

planet’s problems at the level of our 

community, but if those who have the 

means do not do so, who will? 

Is the frequency of natural disasters 

a major factor? How important 

is weather and climate information 

among these factors? 

Extreme weather events, such as 

cyclones, hurricanes and flooding, 

can damage tourism infrastructure 

physically and pose a great risk for 

the safety of both holiday-makers and 

host communities. Moreover, tourist 

destinations affected by major 

weather-related hazards can suffer 

greatly from secondary effects, such 

as economic impacts on local businesses 

or a negative image in the 

media. In the aftermath of these 

73

74 

tragic events, it takes much effort to 

rebuild both the physical environment 

and the image of destinations. The 

hurricanes that swept through the 

Caribbean in 2005 reinforced the 

prediction that, in the long term, both 

the frequency and strength of 

cyclones would increase. Early warning 

systems and weather-information 

services are vital to prevent major 

hazards at tourism destinations 

becoming disasters. 

Does the sector have contingency 

plans for climate-related and manmade 

emergencies? 

In 1998, UNWTO, jointly with WMO, 

published the Handbook on Natural 

Disaster Reduction in Tourist Areas. 

A significant part of this publication 

addresses contingency planning and 

preparedness for extreme events. 

Unfortunately, emergency situations 

caused by natural phenomena and 

man-made events are not new to the 

tourism sector, which endured a 

number of crisis situations in the 

past. The event of 11 September 

2001 and the various crises of these 

past few years, such as severe acute 

respiratory syndrome (SARS) 

disease, the Indian Ocean tsunami, 

oil price rises and other socioeconomic 

uncertainties, dealt a 

severe blow to the sector globally. It 

has always shown strong resilience, 

however, and is already back on the 

path of strong growth. UNWTO has 

been addressing crisis-management 

issues through research, producing 

guidelines and providing capacitybuilding 

and technical assistance to 

its members in the field. We also aim 

to avert crisis situations by improving 

information services and collaborating 

with other institutions, 

such as with the World Health 

Organization on the current avian 

influenza issue. 

How can WTO and WMO work 

together to strengthen their 

already solid relationship and 

enhance national and regional 

collaboration? Can joint activities 

include biometeorological studies 

in support of the Olympics, for 

example? 

There has been good collaboration 

between the two UN specialized agencies, 

based on the official cooperation 

agreement signed in 1992. Among 

recent activities, I would like to highlight 

the discussions held at the UN 

Coordination Meeting on Tourism 

Matters, organized by UNWTO in 2004 

and UNWTO’s contribution to the 

recent edition of WMO’s World 

Climate News, that was dedicated to 

climate and tourism issues. I also had 

the opportunity to participate in the 

WMO Technical Conference on 

Climate as a Resource that preceded 

the 14th session of the WMO 

Commission for Climatology (Beijing, 

November 2005). We warmly support 

the decision adopted by the 

Commission to formulate an Expert 

Team on Climate and Tourism and fully 

agree with the terms of reference. 

These activities can be the basis for an 

excellent agenda for collaboration. 

Among these, the strengthening of 

working relationships between 

National Tourism Administrations and 

National Weather Services should be a 

priority. 

There are intensive research activities 

in biometeorology and a growing body 

of knowledge that can be applied, for 

example, to the comfort, health and 

safety of tourists, and tourists’ perception 

of climate factors; these 

conditions are determinant for a 

satisfying vacation experience. 

UNWTO has been involved in sports 

tourism and has organized international 

events, also with a special focus 

on winter sports. Biometeorological 

studies in support of sport tourism 

Francesco Friangialli participated in the 

WMO Technical Conference on Climate as a 

Resource in Beijing, China, in November 

2005. He is pictured here (front row, second 

from left) with (to his left) the Secretary- 

General of WMO, Michel Jarraud, and the 

Permanent Representative of China with 

WMO, Qin Dahe. 

activities and major sport events, such 

as the Olympics, could certainly be 

another potential field of cooperation 

between our agencies. 

How important is the environment, 

compared to profitability, in 

managing tourism? Are there any 

social, economic, legislative or 

political hurdles that hamper (or 

discourage) integration of climate 

and environment into planning? 

Natural environment and environmental 

resources form the sole basis of 

any tourism products and activities; 

they should not be jeopardized by 

short-term objectives of economic 

exploitation and profit-making. 

UNWTO has been promoting a 

sustainable development approach in 

the tourism sector, emphasizing the 

need for a balance in the environmental, 

economic and socio-cultural 

aspects. We have produced a series of 

guidelines and manuals, and organized 

numerous capacity-building events

and conferences in order to support 

members of the public and private 

sectors in formulating and implementing 

sustainable tourism policies, 

strategies and plans. Sustainable 

tourism is also a main driver of our 

technical cooperation activities, 

whereby we provide assistance to 

countries to formulate master plans 

and sectoral strategies. 

There have been great advances in the 

tourism sector since the Rio Earth 

Summit (1992) and there are various 

international processes and events 

that underpin these. Among these 

may be mentioned the UN 

Commission on Sustainable Development 

that dedicated its seventh 

session entirely to tourism issues in 

1999; the International Year of 

Ecotourism in 2002; and the inclusion 

of tourism in the Plan of Action of the 

World Summit on Sustainable 

Development (Johannesburg, 2002). 

There is also a growing number of 

private-sector-led programmes, for 

example, the Tour Operators Initiative, 

which comprises some 20 leading tour 

operators, who joined forces to foster 

the application of sustainable practices 

along the tourism supply chain and at 

tourism destinations. 

A policy report on sustainable tourism, 

prepared for the Johannesburg 

Summit by UNWTO, concluded that 

there have been great advances in 

creating awareness of sustainability 

issues in the tourism sector. Many 

countries declare they are pursuing, or 

wish to pursue, policies for “sustainable 

tourism”. Nevertheless, a degree 

of uncertainty remains over the possibilities 

and priorities for making 

tourism more sustainable and only a 

partial appreciation of how to put this 

into practice. Today, a wide range of 

technical and technological solutions is 

available for minimizing tourism’s 

negative impacts and maximizing its 

social and economic benefits. Yet, the 

application of these solutions has been 

relatively slow and partial in most 

destinations. The practical application 

of tourism planning and management 

techniques and the effective implementation 

of tourism policies and 

development plans are the greatest 

challenges the tourism sector faces 

today. 

What are the highlights of the 

long-term strategy of WTO and 

how do you see the role of 

weather and climate information in 

this context? 

Regarding the role of weather and 

climate information, our strategic 

objective is to assist destinations in 

preparing for, and adapting to, the 

long-term impacts of climate change, 

through conserving and enhancing the 

resilience of ecosystems, developing 

adequate tourism infrastructure and 

products and improving the management 

of climate information. 

Based on the results of the proposed 

pilot projects at island destinations, we 

plan to develop tourism-sector specific 

guidelines, and mainstream their application 

in other countries. We would 

like to extend studies and pilot projects 

to other types of destination as 

well, such as mountain regions. The 

initial focus was on island destinations 

as they are the most vulnerable to 

potential climate-change impacts, 

which are visible and felt in many of 

them, such as extreme climatic 

events, rising sea-levels and freshwa- 

ter supply. This is also in line with our 

strategic objective of assisting Small 

Island Developing States, which we 

re-confirmed at the SIDS Global 

Summit in Mauritius in 2005. 

UNWTO is also collaborating in the 

process of preparing the Fourth 

Assessment Report coordinated by 

the Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change. We have nominated 

experts in climate change and tourism 

issues, and we are participating in the 

review process. I am pleased to see 

that tourism is more explicitly 

addressed in the Fourth Assessment 

Report than in previous ones, notably 

in Working Group II and its Chapter 7 

regarding industry, settlement and 

ssociety, as well as in some of the 

regional chapters. As climate scenarios 

and climate change prediction 

models are becoming more refined 

and more accurate at regional and local 

levels, we hope they can be increasingly 

applied at holiday destinations. 

We should not forget that there is a 

two-way relationship between 

tourism and climate, as was clearly 

stated in the Declaration issued at the 

Djerba Conference. Tourism is 

impacted by climate change, but also 

contributes to the causes of climate 

change, mainly through emissions 

from transportation and consumption 

of energy in tourism facilities, as well 

as by altering the natural environment. 

We have been addressing these 

issues through promoting environmental 

practices as integrated parts of 

destination management and tourism 

operations. 

In all these processes we will count 

strongly on our collaboration with 

WMO. 

75

76 

Interview with 

Sir David King 

Chief Scientific Adviser to 

HM Government of the 

United Kingdom 

Over the past few decades, global 

scientific and technical coordination 

and cooperation have led to 

better understanding of hazards 

and their impacts and availability of 

operational warning capabilities. 

How critical is the role of the scientific 

and technical community in 

advancing disaster risk reduction 

and what more can be done? 

The scientific and technical community 

has a very important role to play 

in all phases of disaster risk reduction 

from mitigation to preparedness and 

response and recovery. It can help 

with the vulnerability assessment and 

identifying steps that should be taken 

to minimize the risks; for example 

identifying land that is prone to flooding 

or that could be affected by an 

earthquake or a volcano, or in the 

identification of evacuation procedures 

which will minimize risk. 

Scientists can help educate citizens 

about the nature of the hazards they 

face and how to recognize and 

respond safely to them. As was made 

clear in the tsunami of 26 December 

2004, it was the local knowledge of a 

handful of children and adults, which 

they had picked up at school or heard 

through generations of stories, which 

saved lives. For response and recovery, 

ongoing warnings of how the 

event is developing and what other 

types of factors may affect the 

response are essential. 

There is a lot more that the scientific 

community can do besides the ongoing 

need for research to increase 

our knowledge and understanding of 

potentially hazardous events. Better 

integration and collaboration between 

different scientific disciplines to 

improve understanding of impacts 

and the links between different types 

of hazards is an area which needs 

development, such as the effects of 

weather situations on the spread of 

infectious disease. 

There needs to be improvements in 

the monitoring of potentially hazardous 

events such as volcanoes, 

weather, climate change and the 

spread of infectious diseases. 

As well as ongoing development and 

improvements to operational early 

warning systems and services, more 

expert peer review of scientific 

knowledge and understanding is 

required to provide a “consensus” 

view on hazards and to determine 

when the state of the science is 

ready to develop a useful warning 

capability. 

In the report to the United 

Kingdom Government entitled The 

Role of Science in Physical Natural 

Hazard Assessment by the Natural 

Hazard Working Group, which you 

commissioned, the establishment 

of an International Science Panel 

for Natural Hazard Assessment 

was recommended. In your 

opinion, how can such a panel 

influence national disaster risk 

management policies most 

effectively? 

An International Science Panel can 

provide a worldwide authoritative scientific 

view of potential global- or 

regional-scale hazards, e.g. potential 

for earthquakes in different regions. It 

would cross disciplines and involve 

many international scientists, to pool 

knowledge and expertise. 

I would envisage that it would be able 

to provide an expert peer review of 

scientific knowledge of different types 

of hazard, leading to recommendations 

for particular areas of research 

and recommendations regarding how 

to utilize scientific knowledge to 

improve different phases of disasterrisk 

reduction (e.g. planning or development 

or improvement of warning 

systems). 

The same report strongly 

supported the need for early 

warning systems for all hazards. 

How would you assess progress to 

date and the benefits of the multihazard 

early warning system 

approach? 

I was pleased that the report was 

welcomed by many parties following its 

publication last June. The multi-hazard 

warning system has since been internationally 

endorsed with the G8 leaders, 

the United Nations and the international 

Group on Earth Observations all recognizing 

the need for such an approach.

I know the United Nations is developing 

the idea for a science panel which 

I have been consulted on and I am 

looking forward to seeing how this is 

integrated into the overall system. 

There are many elements of an early 

warning system which are independent 

of the type of hazard, for example 

the need to ensure appropriate links 

between relevant authorities and decision-makers 

and the need to have 

appropriate mechanisms in place to 

communicate warnings to the public 

and to increase their awareness of 

hazards. Different types of hazards 

often interact, e.g. a tropical cyclone 

causing a storm surge, or a flood leading 

to outbreak of disease. I have met 

Michel Jarraud several times now and 

know that WMO is continuing to 

develop its system for all hazards to 

include non-hydrometeorological hazards, 

such as emergencies arising 

from nuclear accidents, volcanic eruptions, 

airborne disease, forest and 

wildland fires and chemical accidents. 

I am sure he will keep up the momentum 

that we have started. 

There has also been progress in 

developing the tsunami early warning 

systems in the Indian Ocean and 

other regions which is good news, 

considering the Asian tsunami was 

what prompted the Prime Minister of 

Sir David was guest 

of honour at the 

World 

Meteorological Day 

2006 celebrations at 

WMO Headquarters. 

His presentation 

entitled “From 

science to action” is 

available on the 

World 

Meteorological Day 

Website: 

http://www.wmo.int/ 

wmd/ 

the United Kingdom to set up the 

Working Group. 

While there has been significant 

progress in the technical aspects of 

hazard and risk analysis and early 

warnings, many challenges remain 

related to legislative, legal and 

organizational capacities and 

linkages. How can we overcome 

these challenges? What needs to 

be done at international and 

national levels? 

The main challenge is ensuring that 

hazard and risk analysis and early 

warning systems are integrated into 

an overall disaster-risk reduction plan. 

Warning systems have to be integrated 

into people’s lives to make 

them accessible and easy to understand, 

and so does disaster risk reduction 

in the broader sense. 

Globally, there needs to be an 

exchange of information by developing 

universal data formats, dataexchange 

agreements and agreeing 

global roles for organizations with the 

most developed capabilities. 

Encouraging global and regional cooperation 

and coordinating approaches 

between development agencies and 

organizations is crucial for any early 

warning system to work. Regional 

cooperation needs to exist to ensure 

that regional developments tree up to, 

and support, coordinated global activities 

and that the global activities feed 

in to regional approaches. 

Traditionally, activities in natural 

disaster risk reduction have 

focused on post-disaster 

emergency recovery and 

humanitarian response, both at 

national level and within the 

international donor community. 

How can science influence a shift 

to a culture of prevention 

effectively? 

We need to improve awareness of 

the impacts of disasters, including the 

links between different hazards, and 

the socio-economic benefits of investing 

in disaster-risk reduction. The 

World Bank has determined that 

every dollar spent in preparing for a 

natural disaster saves seven in 

response. 

At the World Conference on Disaster 

Reduction (Kobe, Japan, January 

2005), there was a call for commitment 

from donors to increase the percentage 

of their funds allocated to disaster 

prevention, and a statement 

was made by the United Kingdom 

International Development Minister 

supporting this and committing the 

United Kingdom to this aim. 

We must not forget that scientists 

can provide the education in order to 

raise awareness of the potential capabilities 

to warn of impending hazardous 

situations, and how to use scientific 

information and products for 

maximum benefit. 

Recent scientific and technical 

developments related to observing 

networks, data-processing, 

77

78 

forecasting and telecommunications, 

among others, have 

helped minimize the impacts of 

disasters. However, development, 

maintenance and durability of 

these capacities require long-term 

resource commitments at national 

and international levels. In a world 

of competing interests, what 

mechanisms can be used to ensure 

these capacities remain a longterm 

priority? 

We have only to look back at the past 

18 months to see what total destruction 

and devastation can occur from 

natural disasters. These events 

remind us of what we should be 

doing to minimize the effects of these 

hazards. In the first instance, the relevant 

national scientific and technical 

organizations such as National Meteorological 

and Hydrological Services 

(NMHSs) need to work with their own 

governments to make them aware of 

the benefits of investing in such 

mechanisms and capabilities, both in 

terms of disaster-risk reduction as 

well as on a day-to-day basis for other 

types of services and uses. The benefits 

of investing in such mechanisms 

and capabilities need to be clearly 

shown to donor agencies and organizations, 

to encourage them to support 

such activities. 

We need to encourage global, 

regional and national cooperation to 

optimize such infrastructure and 

capabilities and share resources and 

capabilities. 

National Meteorological and Hydrological 

Services contribute significantly 

to disaster-risk reduction 

through the issue of comprehensive 

information about hazards and 

early warnings. However, the role 

of these Services is not always fully 

recognized at the political level, 

while their resources and capabili- 

An exhibition of paintings by Swiss artist Hans Erni, entitled "Forces of Nature", was opened 

by Sergei Ordzhonikidze, Director-General, United Nations Office at Geneva (left), on the 

occasion of World Meteorological Day 2006. Sir David is pictured here (second from right) 

with the artist (second from left) and Mr Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General, WMO. 

ties vary significantly from country 

to country. How can we optimize 

their contribution to disaster risk 

reduction? 


Services must provide the best 

possible information, forecasts and 

warnings. For those NMHSs with 

less-developed capabilities, they could 

utilize the capabilities of another 

NMHS, either within the global system 

or within the same region. 

More generally, these Services could 

improve their visibility both with the 

public via TV presentations and with 

relevant government and local authorities, 

including linking with disastermanagement 

agencies or national disaster 

platforms. This would ensure 

that their capabilities and potential 

involvement in the national or community 

disaster plans is understood and 

is utilized to the best effect. 

In what ways do you consider 

WMO could further its contributions 

to disaster risk reduction? 

As I said earlier, I am pleased WMO 

is continuing to take forward the 

disaster-risk reduction agenda, 

particularly developing its system to 

include non-hydrometeorological 

warning systems. However, there is 

always more we can be doing. I think 

there is room for WMO to cooperate 

even more closely with other United 

Nations agencies and international 

organizations in order to develop multiagency 

collaboration. This would 

improve knowledge, develop 

operational capabilities and raise 

awareness of hazards and their 

impacts in the most efficient and 

effective way. 

Other areas where WMO could contribute 

further could be encouraging 

multi-disciplinary collaboration on 

research and development. It could 

continue to raise awareness of the 

capabilities of the global network of 

NMHSs, and further encourage these 

to work together to make optimum 

use of these collective capabilities. 

Further training and education of less 

developed Services would also be 

very useful.

Applications 

of 

meteorology 

for tourism 

in Mauritius 

By Mohamudally Beebeejaun* 

Introduction 

Mauritius consists of a main island 

and a group of small islands scattered 

in the south-west Indian Ocean, 

namely: Rodrigues, Agalega, 

Tromelin, the Cargados Caragos (St 

Brandon) and the Chagos Archipelago 

(Diego Garcia). The total land area of 

Mauritius is 2 040 km 2 with an exclusive 

oceanic economic zone of 2 mil- 

lion km 2 . It was formed by the 

episodic eruption of basaltic lava 

some 8 million, 2 million and 

2 000 years ago. The coastline length 

of the main island, Mauritius, is 

322 km and is almost surrounded by 

fringing coral reefs except at two 

places in the south and west, where 

waves from the open sea crash 

directly against the shores. The 

lagoon area is about 243 km 2 . 

Rodrigues, with a lagoon area of 

about 200 km 2 , is totally surrounded 

by a complex reef, except for passes. 

The coral reef of Saint Brandon and 

Agalega covers 190 km 2 and 100 km 2 

respectively. 

Mauritius lies on the edge of the 

southern tropical belt and is virtually 

free from influences of the continental 

airmass. It enjoys a mild maritime tropical 

climate with a warm and moist 

summer (November to April) and relatively 

cold winter (May to October). 

May and October are considered transition 

months with mainly dry and 

beautiful sunny days. It is generally 

swept by trade winds throughout the 

year, except for some short periods in 

summer season, when tropical storms 

approach the country. 

After independence in 1968, the Mauritian 

economy was based principally 

on agriculture. The economy has 

undergone several distinct development 

phases and, in the process, successfully 

diversified from a mono-crop 

economy, mostly dependent on the 

export of sugar, which is climatedependent, 

into manufacturing, 

tourism, exports, services and, more 

recently, to information technology 

and as a seafood hub and freeport. 

The tourism industry is projected to 

be the main pillar of the Mauritian 

economy in the years to come. 

Tourism 

* Mauritius Meteorological Services Hotels and bungalows along the white, sandy Mauritian beaches 

Tourism in Mauritius is not viewed as 

a single industry but a multiple one. 

Its impact is manifold and its current 

evolution depends on the economic, 

regional, local, social and cultural policies 

of the country. The tourism sector, 

which is mainly coastal-based, has 

gradually emerged as the second pillar 

79

80 

of the Mauritius economy and the 

hotels and restaurants were contributing 

some 7.6 per cent to the gross 

domestic product (GSDP) as at 

December 2005. Most of the tourist 

hotels are beach hotels/resorts within 

100 m of the high-water mark. Sun, 

sand and sea are the prime motivation 

of tourists coming to Mauritius in 

order to skip the cold and unsettled 

weather of their home countries. The 

number of tourist arrivals reached 

761 063 in the year 2005. 

The industry creates direct and indirect 

employment and is the only 

apparent stable economy in constant 

growth since the last 30 years. Unsustainable 

development of the tourism 

industry, however, may aggress the 

marine environment or, conversely, a 

degraded coastal area may hinder the 

growth of tourism. 

Mauritius had to come up with new 

ideas in an attempt to protect both 

the coastal areas and the tourism 

industry. In 2002, the Government 

created the Tourism Authority, which 

is responsible for providing licenses to 

organizations operating in the tourism 

sector. The hotels, bungalows, guest 

houses, restaurants, airline agencies, 

guides, skippers, divers and beach 

hawkers have to abide by the norms 

set out by this official authority. These 

operating agencies require meteorological 

outputs either to save energy, 

a valuable commodity, or reduce accidents 

during outdoor marine activities. 

To reduce pressure in the coastal 

zone, the Ministry of Tourism is 

encouraging the development of 

ecotourism. The island has a number 

of sites of great ecological value such 

as the Black River Gorges, botanical 

gardens, islets and natural parks. 

These could be further exploited as 

they offer environmentally sustainable 

opportunities for ecotourism developments. 

A total of 42 licensed 

Early warnings contribute to the safety of tourists against natural hazards. 

operators are already functioning in 

this sector. Nowcasting services 

provided by the Mauritius 

Meteorological Services, especially 

for local, short-lived thunderstorms, 

are extensively used during excursions 

to these sites. Moreover, the 

demand for such services is expected 

to increase sharply due to the fast 

expansion of these activities. 

Coastal zone 

Being small, the whole island of Mauritius 

may be considered a coastal 

zone but, as per the Environment Protection 

Act 2002, the coastal zone of 

Mauritius is defined as any area that 

is situated within 1 km from the highwater 

mark, extending either side 

into the sea or inland. The island is 

endowed with sandy beaches, protected 

bays and calm lagoons, factors 

that have permitted the development 

of both tourism and fishing. The 

marine and coastal environment contributes 

significantly to the island’s 

economy through the rational 

exploitation of its living resources. It 

also attracts human settlement, hotel 

development and tourism. 

Over the past years, the coastal 

areas of Mauritius have experienced 

rapid development and have been 

extensively used for various activities. 

Coral sand removal (at the rate 

of 800 000 tonnes per year on average) 

and sewage discharge into 

lagoons has been allowed, with the 

result that some beaches and 

lagoons are now severely degraded. 

Furthermore, absence of proper 

planning and inadequate enforcement 

resulted in uncontrolled constructions 

on the coast and rapid 

deterioration of coastal resources. 

The coastal zone is constantly coming 

under severe stress; without 

immediate and appropriate action, its 

future looks quite bleak. An integrated 

strategy is being developed 

through the Integrated Coastal Zone 

Management Plan to mitigate its 

impacts.

The coastal zone represents the most 

valuable socio-economic assets of 

Mauritius and the main source of 

recreation and leisure to the locals. It 

is vulnerable to natural disasters, such 

as sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, 

climate variability, beach erosion and, 

more recently, tsunami. 

Impacts of adverse climate 

conditions on the coastal 

region of Mauritius 

The southern hemisphere winter 

months are characterized by the influence 

of the semi-permanent anticyclone 

and exhibits a rather strong 

south-east trade wind regime with 

gusts peaking over 100 km/h at times. 

When coupled with swell waves, generated 

along the Roaring Forties, large 

wave conditions may occur, affecting 

mainly the southern and western 

coasts. 

Tropical cyclones generally develop 

along the inter-tropical convergence 

zone and recurve towards the south. 

An average of 10 of these tropical systems 

occurs annually in the South- 

West Indian Ocean. Significant degradation 

of the coastal land and shoreline 

are caused through its associated 

phenomenal waves, strong winds, 

storm surges and torrential rain. 

Climate change, temperature rise and 

sea-level rise are yet other potential 

threats to the coasts: sea-level is rising 

at about 0.7 mm per year; air temperature 

has increased about 0.50°C 

during the last decade and precipitation 

patterns are changing. 

Small Island Developing States are 

highly vulnerable to climate change 

and ensuing sea-level rise. In Mauritius, 

the key socio-economic sectors 

which, are most likely to be affected, 

are coastal resources, water 

resources, health and well-being 

among others. The potential impacts 

on the coastal marine systems are 

considered the most damaging. As 

per the studies carried out under 

United States Country Study Program’s 

Initial National Communication 

and Climate Change Action Plan, 

the following estimates have been 

calculated: 

About 26 000m 2 of beaches could 

be flooded with a sea-level rise of 

one metre in the region of Flic En 

Flac, a favourite tourist spot located 

to the west of Mauritius; 

About 12 km of main coastal road 

and 25 km of secondary coastal road 

could be permanently inundated; 

Plantations, including several 

hectares of sugar cane and cash 

crops could be inundated and have 

to be abandoned; 

More than 1 000 houses could be 

totally under threat and 100 units 

partly, resulting in an estimated 

6 000 people being affected. 

Storm surge and rising sea-level affect coastal roads. 

Warning of tsunami or seismic sea 

waves was inexistent in the country 

prior to the event of 26 December 

2004. The Government of Mauritius 

has recently established a 

tsunami warning centre at the Mauritius 

Meteorological Services. It is 

based on its experience in tropical 

cyclone warning and its interest in the 

collection and management of basic 

oceanographic parameters, with the 

collaboration of other national, 

regional and international organizations. 

The significant contributions 

from the World Meteorological Organization, 

the Intergovernmental 

Oceanographic Commission of 

UNESCO, the Japan Meteorological 

Agency and the Pacific Centre 

Tsunami warning of Hawaii are hereby 

acknowledged. 

Being a small developing State, it has 

been observed that these types of 

hazard could halt or even reverse the 

economic progress of Mauritius. A 

programmed and systematic 

approach to reduce vulnerability has 

become a government priority. The 

81

82 

Prime Minister’s Office thus set up 

the Central Cyclone and Other Natural 

Disaster Committee, including 

Tsunami. It focuses on disaster management 

by coordinating prevention/ 

mitigation, preparedness and 

response strategies. The Mauritius 

Meteorological Services is the warning 

centre of all natural hazards affecting 

Mauritius and also plays a key role 

in sensitizing the population through a 

proactive awareness campaign, using 

the electronic and written media in 

collaboration with other stakeholders. 

Meteorological services and 

tourism 

The tourism industry is likely to suffer 

from most hydrometeorological hazards, 

notably higher sea-levels and 

damage to coastal areas from surges, 

high waves and storms. 

In the light of these threats to coastal 

areas, an essential source of economy 

for the local tourism industry, the 

Mauritius Meteorological Services is 

committed to assume new responsibilities 

to meet the challenges, to 

offer meteorological protection for the 

safety and security of tourists and to 

participate in various programmes to 

mitigate and rehabilitate the coastal 

assets. 

A two-way relationship between 

tourism and Mauritius Meteorological 

Services has been developed. It is 

gradually building a disaster-resilient 

tourism community through vital tools 

such as timely dissemination of 

weather forecast and accurate forecasts. 

Most of the hotels and tourist 

residences are in direct liaison with 

the Mauritius Meteorological Services 

and, following an arrangement, automatically 

receive the daily weather 

forecasts. 

Water sports such as big game fishing, 

water skiing, diving, swimming 

and undersea walks are favourites of 

the tourists. Mauritius Meteorological 

Services ensures that warnings for 

the high seas and the lagoon are disseminated 

well in advance to allow 

organization of these activities. 

The tourism industry is also informed 

of the presence of extreme weather 

events or natural hazards likely to 

affect Mauritius. This allows the 

tourist to be kept informed and organizers 

to cater for indoor leisure. 

Tourists are also encouraged at all 

times to phone the Mauritius Meteorological 

Services directly for professional 

advice. Thousands of queries 

about the forecast weather conditions 

are requested annually by 

tourists by e-mail before leaving their 

homeland. Mauritius Meteorological 

Services ensures that such queries 

are treated within 24 hours of receipt. 

Seasonal climate forecasts are issued 

twice yearly and provided to the tour 

operators, the Ministry of Tourism, 

and policy-/decision-makers. This 

information is crucial for forward planning, 

development of the tourism 

marketing strategy and to cater for 

tourists’ comfort. 


an active member of the Integrated 

Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) 

Committee, which is responsible for 

giving guidance on sustainable 

coastal development. The basic 

requirements to achieve coastal protection 

and management are data on 

tides, water levels, waves, sea temperature, 

winds and coastal circulation. 

Mauritius Meteorological Services 

has installed two tide-gauges at 

Port Louis and Rodrigues to monitor 

sea-level since 1986. It also generates 

its own tidal forecasts and pub- 

lishes it in its annual technical report. 

It has installed a wave rider buoy just 

off the lagoon to the south-east of 

Blue Bay for wave recordings. These 

data are frequently used in models to 

calculate the impacts of waves on 

coastal areas. 

Data monitoring, archival and delivery 

have been major priorities for Mauritius 

Meteorological Services. It established 

the National Oceanographic 

Data and Information Centre (NODC) 

in 1999 and is involved in the compilation 

and manipulation of physical 

oceanographic and hydrometeorological 

data for Mauritius national waters. 

Conclusion 


responding to new and growing 

demand at national level for the provision 

of vital inputs to the sustainable 

development of the tourism industry. 

Areas of observation, communication, 

warning services, maintenance of 

quality-controlled databanks and 

access to them by potential users are 

being continuously enhanced to contribute 

more efficiently to development 

programmes. It is the ambition 

of Mauritius Meteorological Services 

that Mauritius will become prepared 

for natural hazards in order to promote 

the tourism industry. The continual 

support for the transfer of technology 

and capacity building from 

WMO has been invaluable. 

Acknowledgement 

The author is grateful to the Director 

of Mauritius Meteorological Services 

for his valuable contribution.

References 

ANON, 1996, Changes in Sea-Level in the 

Region of Mauritius, unpublished paper 

draft, Vacoas: Mauritius Meteorological 

Services. 

GOPAUL, L and S, OCTOBER 1996, Topographic 

Survey of Flic en Flac Public 

Beach (Pearl Beach Hotel to Villa 

Caroline Hotel), Vacoas: Mauritius 

Meteorological Services, Report Number 

9. 

GOVERNMENT OF MAURITIUS, 1996, Ministry 

of Fisheries and Marine Resources. 

Albion Fisheries Research Centre – 

Annual Report 1995, Port Louis. 

NATIONAL CLIMATE COMMITTEE – Mauritius, 

November 1996, Report on National 

Workshop on Climate Change Activities 

held at the La Pirogue Hotel 4 – 6 

November, 1996, Vacoas: Mauritius 

Meteorological Services. 


October 1995, Report on One Day 

Seminar on Climate Change and its 

Impacts held at the Manisa Hotel 12 

September, 1995, Vacoas: Mauritius 

Meteorological Services. 


1994, Technical Working Group on 

“The Economics of Greenhouse Gas 

Limitation, Phase 1”, unpublished midterm 

report, July 1997. Padya, B.M. 

The Climate of Mauritius, Second 

Edition, Vacoas: Mauritius Meteorological 

Services 

RAMNAUTH, N., September 1995, Vulnerability 

and Adaptation Assessments: 

Survey Activities at Pomponette (St. 

Felix), Vacoas: Mauritius Meteorological 

Services, Report Number 6 

RAGOONADEN, S, et all., September 1996, 

Coastal Geomorphology and Impacts of 

Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Zone with 

Adaptive Measures, Vacoas: Mauritius 

Meteorological Services, Report Number 

8 

RAGOONADEN, S, et all., February 1996, The 

Island States at Risk: Mauritius Case, 

Vacoas: Mauritius Meteorological 

Services, Report Number 7 

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON 

CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC), Annex I 

Expert Group. “Policies and Measures 

for Possible Common Action,” 

unpublished 

VEERASAMY, S, 1997, A report on Climate 

Variability and Sugar Production in 

Mauritius, Vacoas: Mauritius Meteorological 

Services, October 1995. Ministry 

of Economic Development and 

Regional Cooperation 

A Climate Change Action Plan, 1998, 

National Climate Committee 

CSO, 2005, Annual Digest of Statistics 

2005. Central Statistical Office, Ministry 

of Economic Development, Financial 

Services and Corporate Affairs. 

Republic of Mauritius 

Initial National Communication of the 

Republic of Mauritius, 1999, National 

Climate Committee 

Ministry of Environment, 1999, National 

Environmental Strategies for the 

Republic of Mauritius 

Technology Needs Assessment, 2004, 

Maintenance and enhancement of 

capacities for Climate Change 

Activities 

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84 

Meteorologica 

l applications 

for coastal 

management 

in Barbados 

By Lorna Inniss 1 , Antonio Rowe 2 , 

Angelique Brathwaite 3 , Ramon Roach 4 

General information about 

Barbados 

Barbados, the most easterly of the 

Caribbean islands, is located north-east 

of Venezuela at 13°N, 59°W, with a land 

area of approximately 432 km 2 . In spite 

of its relatively short coastline (92 km), 

the island’s coastal boundaries are quite 

diverse, influenced on the one side by 

the calm waters of the Caribbean Sea 

and, on the other, by the high-energy 

Atlantic Ocean waves. This coast is 

recognized by the Barbados Government 

as a unique and irreplaceable asset 

and one requiring sustained protection 

and conservation measures. 

The dry sub-humid climate of Barbados 

produces temperatures in the range 

20°–30°C. The dry season, which is 

normally quite distinct, is from 

December to May, with the balance of 

the year being quite wet. Average 

annual rainfall ranges from 1 254 mm at 

lower elevations to 1 650 mm at higher 

central elevations. The island is almost 

completely dependent on groundwater 

abstracted from the aquifer underlying 

the island. 

Karst topography characterizes the 

island generally. However, the northeastern 

coastal area is comprised of 

sedimentary deposits. It is unclear 

whether the limestone cap has been 

removed from these deposits over 

geological time. The resultant landscape 

in this area is unique but highly prone to 

land slippage and erosion. It is this area 

which faces the high-energy waves of 

the Atlantic Ocean and the trade winds. 

Reef development is minimal offshore 

but large pockets of limestone flats 

exist, dominated by sea fans. In 

contrast, the Caribbean coast is characterized 

by protected bays and lengthy 

beaches along usually calm coastlines. 

These Caribbean coasts south and west 

of the island are the main foci of tourism, 

the current main economic driver. 

Mostly thriving fringing and bank reefs 

are the basis for the development of 

diving tourism, as well as local recreational 

activities. 

1 Deputy Director, Coastal Zone Management Unit, Government of Barbados 

2 Coastal Engineer, Coastal Zone Management Unit, Government of Barbados 

3 Marine Biologist, Coastal Zone Management Unit, Government of Barbados 

4 Water Quality Analyst, Coastal Zone Management Unit, Government of Barbados 

The coastal zone management 

programme has evolved mainly in 

response to the need for coastal 

conservation in respect of tourism. 

During the 1980s, owners of coastal 

hotels realized that many of the 

Caribbean beaches were eroding. They 

initiated discussions with the 

Government to ensure that this trend 

was reversed or at least stabilized. 

Tourism, however, was not the only 

driver in the establishment of the coastal 

zone management programme. The 

majority of critical infrastructure in 

Barbados is located along the coastline. 

Government headquarters, healthcare 

facilities, fire stations and electrical installations 

are located within the coastal 

zone. The vulnerability of these facilities, 

as well as the extensive tourism plant, 

led the Government to seek a comprehensive, 

integrated coastal zone 

management paradigm, which led to the 

establishment of the Coastal Conservation 

Project Unit in 1983. 

The coastal zone management programme 

focuses mainly on shoreline 

stabilization through the use of coastal 

engineering, water-quality monitoring, 

protection of coral reefs and other 

coastal ecosystems, and the development 

control within the coastal zone 

management area through strict coastal 

planning guidelines. Meteorological 

observations and technology are in the 

areas of coastal engineering and marine 

biology. 

Introduction 

A basic understanding of marine and 

coastal meteorology is an important 

component in coastal and offshore 

design and planning. One of the most 

important meteorological considerations 

relates to the dominant role of winds in 

wave generation. This is critical in wave 

climate analysis which is fundamental, 

and one of the most critical elements in 

the design of coastal structures.

However, many other meteorological 

processes (e.g. the role of winds in dune 

formation, precipitation, wind-driven 

coastal currents and surges, direct wind 

forces on structures; atmospheric circulation 

of pollution and salt) are also 

important environmental factors to 

consider in man’s interaction with nature 

in this sometimes fragile, sometimes 

harsh, environment. 

Barbados wave climate analysis 

The Government of Barbados is currently 

undertaking a Coastal Infrastructure 

Programme. This comprises a range of 

coastal management works and activities 

related to four specific objectives: 

Shoreline stabilization and erosion 

control 

Restoration of coastal habitats 

Improvement of public coastal access 

Institutional strengthening for coastal 

management 

A comprehensive wave climate investigation 

was undertaken to support the 

coastal analysis and design process for 

Holetown Beach 

Improvement 

Rockley to Drill 

Hall Waterfront 

Improvements 

Welches Beach 

Improvement 

Tent Bay 

Boat Access 

Crane Beach 

Restoration 

Woman’s Bay 

Headland Protection 

Figure 1 — Coastal Infrastructure 

Programme project sites (Source: Barbados 

Wave Climate Analysis, Baird 2005) 

the Coastal Infrastructure Programme. 

The information generated from this 

analysis was subsequently used as input 

for detailed numerical and physical modelling 

of the various project sites (Figure 1). 

Wave-generation mechanisms 

Barbados is impacted by three distinct 

types of wave conditions, which may be 

identified as shown in Figure 2: 

Locally generated seas 

These are waves created primarily by 

the north-eastern trades blowing in 

the vicinity of Barbados. 

Longer period swells 

These swells are generated by extratropical 

cyclones occurring in the 

mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic. 

They are particularly important as, 

due to their long periods (>12 s), 

they have the potential to “wrap” 

around the island of Barbados and 

be present on southern shorelines. 

The season for the extra-tropical 

cyclones traversing the North 

Atlantic Ocean is mostly from 

November to March. 

Hurricanes (tropical cyclones) are 

large-scale, severe storm events 

that may be generated in the northern 

equatorial belt and may pass in a 

general east-to-west direction over, 

and in the vicinity of, the island of 

Barbados. These events can generate 

very large wave conditions and 

significant surge and form the basis 

of the extreme design conditions at 

each of the project sites. The season 

for tropical cyclones in the Caribbean 

Sea is from May to November, with 

peak activity occurring during 

September and October. 

Accurately predicting the range in 

wave heights, wave periods and, in 

particular, wave direction, is an essential 

input to any coastal engineering 

investigation, particularly with respect 

to sediment-transport modelling and 

understanding beach platform development. 

Wave climate analyses for 

the Caribbean are often separated into 

operational (daily or non-hurricane) 

wave conditions and design (hurricane) 

wave conditions. The 

methodologies for investigation of 

both phenomena vary because of the 

differences in scale of these wave 

processes (Baird, 2005). 

Long-term wave hindcast for 

Barbados 

In order to quantify the wave climate of 

Barbados, a 20-year numerical wave 

hindcast of the North Atlantic Ocean 

was undertaken, using a 2D spectral 

hindcast wind-wave model. The basic 

input to the hindcast model consists of 

a regular spaced grid defining the water 

depths and shorelines in the region of 

interest, and temporal and spatially varying 

wind fields. The model produces as 

output a detailed description of wave 

conditions throughout the model 

domain that varies with time over the 

period of the hindcast. 

A 20-year hindcast of deepwater wave 

conditions was carried out using the 

hindcast model WAVAD. WAVAD is a 

second generation directional spectral 

wave model developed by Don Resio of 

the US Army Corps of Engineers. The 

model has also been extensively tested 

and verified at a range of sites throughout 

the world. 

This model includes a parameterization 

for the wave generation and development 

mechanism that uses wind data 

provided from a global atmospheric 

model. The objective of these simulations 

was to define a long-term database 

of operational wave conditions offshore 

of Barbados. 

85

86 

Model validation for the wave hindcast 

carried out for Barbados was undertaken 

primarily through comparison of 

the hindcast results with a deepwater 

wave buoy (41 100) located northeast 

of Barbados and maintained by Météo- 

France. 

The wave hindcast carried out for 

Barbados involved a two-stage process. 

A coarse outer grid with a 1° (111 km) 

spatial resolution was used to simulate 

wave conditions throughout the North 

Atlantic Ocean. The results from the 

simulation were then used to define the 

boundary conditions for the finer 0.25° 

(27.75 km) resolution nested grid that 

covered the south-eastern Caribbean. 

The purpose of nesting grids was to 

account for the effects of sheltering 

from western islands, thus improving 

the accuracy of the hindcast. 

Figure 3 shows a typical snapshot of 

model output for wave conditions in the 

Atlantic Ocean. The colour contours 

reflect the characteristic wave height 

over the model grid ranging from 0 (blue) 

to 10 m height (red). The vectors indicate 

the mean direction of wave 

propagation. 

Tropical cyclones are intense and 

compact storm systems. The grid spacing 

of the global atmospheric model is 

relatively coarse at 1 875° or (approxi- 

mately) 208 km (Figure 4). As a result, 

the atmospheric model typically underestimates 

the intensity of the wind fields 

for tropical cyclone events. To account 

for this, the tropical cyclone events that 

occurred over the past 20 years were 

considered separately (Baird, 2005). 

Offshore wave climate 

Figure 2 — Wavegeneration 

mechanisms (Source: 

Barbados Wave 

Climate Analysis, 

Baird 2005) 

Wave conditions at Barbados were 

extracted from a representative 

location within the model for the final 

20-year hindcast. Statistics on these 

wave conditions were then 

generated in the form of scatter 

tables and a storm selection. Figure 6 

presents a wave rose, illustrating the 

variation of wave height by frequency 

and direction, based on all the 

available wave data. 

As may be noted in the figure, the 

predominant waves occur primarily 

from the north-east to east sectors. 

The maximum, minimum and mean 

hourly significant wave heights at 

this location, based on the findings 

from the hindcast were 6.33 m, 

O.66 m and 1.93 m respectively 

(Baird, 2005). 

Coastal engineering structures 

design water levels 

Having obtained the offshore wave 

climate information, the following steps 

are undertaken to obtain the design 

water levels used in the design of 

coastal engineering structures: 

Figure 3 — Typical wave model output (Source: Barbados Wave Climate Analysis, Baird 

2005)

Wave-transformation modelling: the 

Mike 21 nearshore spectral wave 

model was employed to simulate 

the transformation process in order 

to determine wave conditions at 

specific project sites; 

Analysis of waves generated by 

tropical cyclones: several different 

tasks were carried out to address 

hurricane-induced wave conditions 

at Barbados: 

– Analysis of historical hurricane data; 

– Numerical simulation of waves 

generated by historical tropical 

cyclones 1981-2000. The results 

of simulations were integrated 

into the nearshore operational 

wave climate at selected project 

sites; 

– Numerical simulation of waves 

and surge generated by 

100 synthetic hurricane events. 

Grid spacing for the global 

atmospheric model 

Hurricane 

Figure 4 — Spatial scales for the global atmosphere model and a typical hurricane (Source: 

Barbados Wave Climate Analysis, Baird 2005) 

These data were subsequently 

utilized to derive the design wave 

climate by return period for 

selected project sites; 

Storm-surge modelling: to simulate 

the impact of storm surge at the project 

sites in Barbados. The 

two-dimensional hydrodynamic model 

ADCIRC 2DDI was developed by the 

US Army Corps of Engineers; 

Water-level determination: as the 

sites are located in shallow, 

nearshore waters, where wave 

conditions are depth-limited, 

estimation of water level is a critical 

aspect in the design wave climate 

definition. The components 

considered were tidal variation, 

long-term sea-level rise and wave 

set-up. 

Design conditions were then established 

at each site for the 50-year 

return period. 

Use of satellites in coral reef 

research in Barbados 

Background 

While satellites are able to perform a 

host of different functions, their ability 

to differentiate wavelengths of light 

and measure thermal radiation makes 

them invaluable in coral-reef research. 

Satellites are being used to map coral 

reefs, detect plankton blooms and 

determine likely sources of nutrient 

enrichment. This is possible as a result 

of the different spectral properties that 

exist. 

Satellites are also used in coral-reef 

monitoring, providing information 

pertaining to reef health. It is perhaps 

fortuitous that the manner in which 

corals react to stressors, e.g. bleaching, 

and the stressors themselves, e.g. 

high temperatures, can be measured 

by satellites. As a result, these are 

becoming increasingly important in 

coral research. 

Aqua and Terra satellites 

Two of the multi-use satellites are 

Aqua and Terra, the main parts of 

NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) 

of satellites. Both are Sun-synchronous 

satellites, which allow scientists from 

all over the world to measure the 

Earth’s oceans, land, ice and biology. 

They contain several instruments, 

including CERES (monitoring cloud 

cover and radiant energy) and MODIS 

(moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer). 

Terra also carries MISR 

(monitoring aerosols and reflected 

sunlight), MOPITT (measuring pollution 

in the troposphere) and ASTER (measuring 

land-surface climatology, 

vegetation and ecosystem dynamics). 

It is MODIS, however, that is most 

relevant to coral-reef science. MODIS 

was developed by NASA to investigate 

global dynamics and processes occur- 

87

88 

Figure 6 — Wave-height rose offshore from Barbados (Source: Barbados Wave Climate 

Analysis, Baird 2005) 

ring on the land, in the oceans, and in 

the lower atmosphere. It views the 

entire Earth once every two days or 

so. The instrument takes measurements 

in the visible and infrared 

radiation bands, and transmits the 

data back to NASA for processing and 

distribution. 

The importance of MODIS lies in its 

ability to measure ocean colour, which 

changes according to the amount of 

biological activity in the upper layer of 

the ocean. The SeaWifs (sea-viewing 

side field-of-view sensor) instrument 

is another satellite-based platform for 

measuring ocean colour but with a 

lower resolution than MODIS. 

Another satellite aiding coral-reef 

researchers is the NOAA-17 satellite 

which carries the AVHRR (advanced 

very high resolution radiometer) 

instrument. This sensor operates in 

several bands of visible and infrared to 

observe the surface of the Earth (i.e. 

land, ocean or clouds). The AVHRR’s 

main role is to observe cloud cover 

and derive surface temperature for 

NOAA weather modelling and stormtracking 

programmes. The infrared 

sensors, however, also measure seasurface 

temperatures (SSTs) across 

the globe. 

Meteorology’s expanding role in 

coral science 

Five areas of coral-reef science in which 

meteorology is playing an increasingly 

larger role are: 

Coral bleaching 

Phytoplankton blooms 

Coral disease (aspergillosis) 

Land-based sources of marine 

pollution 

Coral mapping 

Bleaching 

Corals depend on the symbiotic relationship 

between themselves and their 

dinoflagellate micro-algae (zooxanthellae) 

to survive. The pairing is mutually 

beneficial, with the algae supplying their 

photosynthetic products of sugars and 

amino acids to the corals, which, in turn, 

release their waste products of ammonia 

and phosphate (essential plant 

nutrients) to the micro-algae. 

The loss of zooxanthellae from coral or 

the loss of the photosynthetic pigment 

from the zooxanthellae itself is termed 

bleaching. It results in the coral appearing 

white as the colour of the limestone 

skeleton becomes visible (Porter and 

Tougas, 2001). Temperature-induced 

bleaching can occur, either as a result 

of being exposed to high temperatures 

for short periods of time, e.g 1.5–2°C 

above summer temperatures for several 

days, or for longer exposure to slightly 

elevated temperatures, e.g. 1–1.5°C 

above normal for three to four weeks. 

A bleached coral has reduced capacity 

to feed and build its skeleton. If the 

stress continues, the coral will be unable 

to meet its nutritional requirements and 

mortality will result. 

Corals appear to be at serious risk from 

bleaching events. In the past 20 years 

alone, mass coral mortalities from every 

region in the world have been reported 

as a result of bleaching, with the most 

severe case in 1998 (Hoegh-Guldberg, 

1999). It is estimated that this bleaching 

event reduced live coral cover by 10 per 

cent (Hodgson and Liebeler, 2002). 

More recently, a Caribbean-wide mass 

bleaching event occurred in 2005, with 

temperatures reaching 31°C, and a 

mean 59 per cent—86 per cent of all 

hard corals in Barbados—being affected 

(Oxenford et al., in press). 

The NOAA-17 satellite is therefore of 

interest to coral-reef scientists tracking 

bleaching, as it allows them to remotely

indicate the likely severity of coral 

bleaching events, a phenomenon 

directly linked to ocean-water temperatures. 

SST data are also used to track El 

Niño and La Niña weather patterns, 

which have implications both for storm 

activity, as well as for the length of 

ocean heating periods, both of which 

have negative impacts on coral reefs. 

Phytoplankton blooms 

Phytoplankton are drifting, microscopic 

aquatic plants, which are important both 

in and out of water, forming the first 

level of the marine food chain, and 

producing approximately half the oxygen 

inhaled by living organisms on Earth. 

Phytoplankton contains chlorophyll, an 

important element of photosynthesis 

and also one of the most significant 

light-altering substances. This chlorophyll 

(which is also readily detected by 

satellites) absorbs the red and blue 

portion of light and reflects green, so the 

more phytoplankton, the greener the 

water and the fewer phytoplankton, the 

bluer the water. 

High concentrations of phytoplankton 

can indicate both positive and negative 

conditions. Very high concentrations of 

plankton (for instance, during plankton 

blooms) indicate that excessive quantities 

of nutrients are in the area. This is 

detrimental to coral reefs as eutrophication 

encourages algal overgrowth and 

the physical presence of algae in 

nearshore areas can block out sunlight, 

resulting eventually in mortality. 

Additionally, a bloom event where there 

has been little flushing can result in 

anoxic conditions causing “dead zones” 

devoid of life. Finally, toxic blooms can 

fatally poison flora and fauna in their 

vicinity. On the other hand, phytoplankton 

utilizes CO 2 , one of the greenhouse 

gases. Large populations sustained over 

periods of time can actually significantly 

lower atmospheric CO 2 , which, in turn, 

could result in a lowering of average 

temperatures. 

MODIS and the less accurate SeaWifs 

space-borne instruments can detect 

the quantity of chlorophyll and are 

used to track these blooms and determine 

their extent. Information can 

also be gathered on possible causes 

of the bloom which would allow for 

changes in policy or practices to minimize 

future events. 

Disease (Sahara dust and 

aspergillosis) 

It has been hypothesized that Sahara 

dust (particulates in the upper atmosphere 

originating in Saharan Africa) 

has a negative impact on coral-reef 

health. The lifting of desert soil by 

large storm events or high-speed 

winds is not uncommon, and can 

result in soils reaching in excess of 10 

km into the air. Duststorms which 

originate in Africa typically move 

across the Atlantic and reach the 

Caribbean, Central America and the 

south-eastern USA between June and 

October. In the northern hemisphere 

winter, the dust tends to hit South 

America and Trinidad between 

February and April (Griffin et al., 

2001). 

It is theorized that the decline of 

Caribbean coral reefs is partially as a 

result of this phenomena (Griffin et al. 

2001). Research on Saharan dust has 

been carried out in Barbados by the 

University of Miami since 1965. The 

first documented cases of coral disease 

occurrence appear to correspond with 

the onset of desertification in North 

Africa in the 1970s. The onset of 

climate change is theorized to have 

resulted in African dust being transported 

in a westerly direction over the 

Atlantic to the Caribbean. These data 

are clearly shown in dust records in 

Barbados (Prospero and Nees, 1986). 

Data collected from Prospero show that 

the peak dust deposition years, 1983 

and 1987, correspond to severe deterioration 

of coral reefs in the Caribbean 

caused by Black band and White band 

disease. It is thought that dust can affect 

coral reefs by direct fertilization of algae 

by iron or other nutrients interacting with 

nutrient-rich ground water and by broadcasting 

bacterial, viral and fungal spores. 

However, the strongest evidence 

supporting the theory of the link 

between dust and coral disease is the 

identification of the fungus Aspergillus 

sydowii (which does not reproduce in 

sea-water) as the infectious agent in 

Caribbean sea-fan mortality (Weir et al., 

2000). 

MODIS is the primary system by which 

researchers monitor Sahara dust, as the 

sensor can distinguish haze (aerosols) 

from clouds. Monitoring the movement 

of the dust can indicate likely areas of 

impact for coral diseases. 

Mapping 

Satellites are becoming more widely 

used in producing baseline cartographic 

maps, mapping reef geomorphology 

and habitats. While much success has 

been made in the former two, the determination 

of ecological characteristics 

has proved to be more difficult. Limited 

information can be obtained, in broad 

categories, such as sand, algae, sea 

grass and coral. With CASI (compact 

airborne spectographic image), 80 per 

cent accuracy can be obtained, while 

Landsat and SPOT (Satellite pour l’observation 

de la Terre) are among the 

most widely used satellites for mapping 

because of their cost-effectiveness. 

Challenges 

A number of challenges still exist for 

the complete incorporation of 

meteorology into the Barbados 

89

90 

programme. The Barbados 

Meteorological Services, located at 

the island’s airport, reports only on 

rainfall recorded at that location, even 

though a number of other raingauges 

and weather stations are located 

around the island. As a result, huge 

inaccuracies occur during the 

application of rainfall data for coasts 

opposite the airport. 

Models utilized for measuring seasurface 

height are now dated, leading 

to the general warnings to coastal 

users and fishermen “above normal 

sea swells”, even in cases where the 

swells in question are 7 m above 

normal. Barbados experienced high 

storm surge associated with hurricane 

Ivan. However, the meteorologists 

were limited in their warnings to 

rainfall and wind changes. If hurricane 

seasons continue to be intense, it is 

imperative that the coastal 

programme work with meteorologists 

to improve predictions with respect to 

potential coastal impacts. Coastal 

evacuation planning and development 

plans are based on these forecasts, 

requiring a high degree of accuracy in 

the data used. The coastal 

engineering programme depended on 

external expertise for training and 

assistance until capacity was built 

within the Unit. Now there must be 

interministerial collaboration to ensure 

that other departments, such as the 

Meteorological Services, also benefit 

from the expertise within the coastal 

management programme, further 

benefiting society as a whole. 

References 

BAIRD, W.F., 2005: Barbados Wave Climate 

Analysis. 

GRIFFIN, D.W., C.A. KELLOG and E.A. SHINN, 

2001: Dust in the wind. Long range 

transport of dust in the atmosphere and 

its implications for global public and 

ecosystem health. Global Change & 

Human Health, Volume 2, No. 1. 

HOEGH-GULDBERG, O., 1999: Climate 

change, coral bleaching and the future 

of the world’s coral reefs. Marine 

Freshwater Research, 50: 839-66. 

OXENFORD, H.A., L. NURSE, R. ROACH, 

A. BRATHWAITE, R. GOODRIDGE, 

F. HINDS, K. BALDWIN, C. FINNEY, 2006: 

Quantitative observations of a mass 

coral bleaching event in Barbados, 

Southeastern Caribbean. Submitted, 

10 March 2006, Climate Change. 

PORTER, J.W., P. DUSTAN, W.C. JAAP, K.L. 

PATTERSON, V. KOSMYNIN, O.W. MEIER, 

M.E.PATTERSON and M. PARSONS, 2001: 

Patterns of spread of coral disease in 

the Florida Keys. The ecology and 

etiology of newly emerging marine 

diseases. Hydrobiologia 460: 1-24. 

PROSPERO, J.M and R.T. NEES,1986: Impact 

of the North African drought and El Niño 

on mineral dust in the Barbados trade 

winds. Nature, 320: 735-738. 

WEIR, J.R., V. GARRISON, G.W. SMITH and 

E.A. SHINN, 2000: The relationship 

between gorgonian coral (Cnidaria: 

Gorgonacea) diseases and African dust 

Storms. In Press. Proc. International 

Coral Reef Symposium, Bali, Indonesia. 

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/ 

SST/methodology.html 

http://www.epa.gov/owow/estuaries/ 

coastlines/jun03/NOAA_Sat.html 

http://www.unesco.org/csi/pub/source/ 

rs12.htm 

http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/african_dust/

WMO and 

ICAO work 

together for 

international 

air 

navigation 

By O.M. Turpeinen* 

Role of aeronautical meteorology 

for aircraft operations 

Meteorological information plays an 

essential role for air navigation and is 

required to ensure the safety and 

efficiency of civil aviation operations. 

Most people working either in the 

aviation industry or meteorology 

have no doubt already been familiar 

with the effects of hazardous 

weather phenomena on flight. Pilots, 

* International Civil Aviation Organization 

Secretariat, with a contribution from the 

WMO Secretariat 

dispatchers and air traffic controllers 

need to have observations, reports 

and forecasts as well as warnings of 

such phenomena. What is often less 

clear is the important effect that 

seemingly “innocent” meteorological 

elements (such as surface and 

upper winds, visibility and runway 

visual range, temperatures and 

surface pressure) can have on both 

the safety and efficiency of flight 

operations. 

Information on wind direction and 

speed is vital for take-off and landing. 

The selection of the runway is 

based on that element. If the heador 

tail-wind component and the 

cross-wind components are made 

available separately, the length of 

runway needed for take-off or landing 

can be determined. One can also 

ascertain whether the cross-wind 

component falls within the design 

limits of individual aircraft. Normally, 

aircraft land or take off into a head 

wind; a cross-wind component of 

the order of 46-56 km/h is the maximum 

permissible for the majority of 

jet aircraft. The cross-wind limit for 

small aircraft is generally lower than 

these values. For the en-route phase 

of flight, information is required on 

winds along the route at cruising 

levels. Strong head winds mean that 

more fuel needs to be carried at the 

expense of passengers or freight. 

Pilots need to know what the 

temperature will be at their flight 

level because temperature affects 

jet engine efficiency (in general, the 

lower the better). The same applies 

during take-off: a higher temperature 

results in a longer take-off run 

because temperature affects the 

density of the air (i.e. the higher the 

temperature, the lower the density). 

Temperature affects the lift at a 

given speed and hence also affects 

the take-off run. Similarly, the atmospheric 

pressure affects the take-off 

run due to its relationship with the 

density of the air. 

The surface wind, temperature and 

pressure referred to above have to be 

accounted for in the pre-flight calculations 

of the take-off run, i.e. the 

calculation of maximum permissible 

take-off weight for the runway under 

the given meteorological conditions. 

The provision of accurate and timely 

information on these meteorological 

elements helps ensure the safety of 

flight and also improves the efficiency 

of airline operations. 

Information on visibility and runway 

visual range is of critical importance as 

landing and take-off minima are determined 

on the basis of these elements, 

and precision approach operations 

cannot take place without them. 

Furthermore, the height of the cloud 

base is highly useful when assessing 

whether the prevailing conditions are 

above the landing and take-off minima 

and whether the pilot is in a position to 

establish the required visual reference 

at the decision altitude. This information 

has become increasingly 

important as the number of aircraft 

The turbulence associated with 

thunderstorms can exceed the structural 

limits of the aircraft. 

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92 

operations increase in lower-visibility 

conditions. 

With regard to hazardous weather 

phenomena for take-off or landing, 

pilots need to be warned of the existence 

or forecast of fog, snowstorms, 

wind shear, tropical cyclones, etc. 

During the en-route phase of flight, 

pilots need to know whether they are 

likely to encounter severe thunderstorms, 

involving hail, severe 

turbulence, icing or volcanic ash to 

enable them to avoid these hazardous 

phenomena. Thunderstorms are notorious 

for extreme up- and 

downdraughts. Pilots avoid thunderstorms 

as much as they can because 

the associated turbulence can easily 

exceed the structural limits of the 

aircraft. Moreover, thunderstorms are 

particularly dangerous in the vicinity of 

aerodromes as the associated downdraughts 

(in extreme cases called 

downbursts) can cause aircraft to sink 

below the glide path. This may mean 

that the aircraft could strike an obstacle 

or the ground before it can regain 

its flight path. 

Explosive volcanic eruptions produce 

clouds of dense ash up to levels reaching 

into the stratosphere. When the 

ash is ingested into aircraft jet 

Pilots need to be 

aware of existing or 

forecast snow for 

take-off and landing 

operations. (Photo: 

CSIRO Australia 

2004) 

engines, these are severely damaged 

and may flame-out completely, as has 

happened on at least three separate 

occasions. This is a serious hazard to 

aviation and has been addressed over 

the last few years by the International 

Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), in 

coordination with WMO. 

The Global Observing System (GOS) is 

the WMO system for observing, 

recording and reporting meteorological 

conditions. This is essential for the 

preparation of operational forecasts and 

warnings for all users, including aviation. 

It makes a substantial contribution 

to enabling the delivery of increasingly 

accurate and reliable forecasts and 

warnings. The 187 Members of WMO 

support and maintain the GOS and thus 

contribute to the meteorological information 

which is provided to 

aeronautical users. These include 

pilots, dispatchers, air-traffic controllers 

and airport and airline managers. 

WMO and ICAO working 

arrangements and the roles 

of the two Organizations 

In order to meet the needs of international 

civil aviation in an efficient 

manner, it is important that ICAO and 

WMO work closely together and 

ensure that stated aviation requirements 

can be met without any 

unnecessary overlap of activities 

carried out by the two Organizations. 

This has been recognized from the 

early days of aviation and that is the 

reason why working arrangements 

between WMO and ICAO were established 

as early as in 1953 and are 

included in the Working arrangements 

between the WMO and ICAO (ICAO 

Doc 7475 and WMO-No. 60). These 

working arrangements can be encapsulated 

by the following: 

ICAO is responsible for defining the 

aeronautical meteorological requirements; 

and 

WMO is responsible for defining the 

most appropriate methods for fulfilling 

the requirements, including the 

training of aeronautical meteorological 

personnel. 

It is important to note that the dissemination 

of operational meteorological 

(OPMET) data (e.g. METAR/SPECI, 

TAF, WAFS forecasts) is the prerogative 

of ICAO and that the planning for 

such dissemination is undertaken by 

ICAO. Furthermore, the provisions in 

Annex 3/Technical Regulations [C.3.1] 

stipulate that the ICAO aeronautical 

fixed service should be used for the 

dissemination of such information. 

One of the constant challenges facing 

both the ICAO and WMO Secretariats 

is to ensure that the work (i.e. the 

maintenance of up-to-date requirements 

by ICAO and methods for 

meeting those requirements by 

WMO) is carried out in an efficient 

and cost-effective manner. To this 

end, proper coordination between the 

two Organizations has to be 

constantly maintained with full 

consultation and cooperation at every 

stage of the process. This coordination 

is also achieved by the

systematic participation of WMO in 

the work of ICAO operations and study 

groups, and of ICAO in the work of the 

relevant WMO technical commissions. 

This ensures that: 

No aviation requirement is generated 

that is impossible to fulfil; 

No methodology is developed for a 

requirement that is not foreseen to 

exist; and 

Both Organizations continue to operate 

according to the Working 

arrangements between ICAO and 

WMO so as to avoid the duplication 

of effort and redundancy of services 

and facilities established for international 

civil aviation by their 

respective Members. 

The meteorological requirements for 

international air navigation are laid out 

in Annex 3—Meteorological service 

for international air navigation to the 

Convention on International Civil 

Aviation, which is a document maintained 

by ICAO. Annex 3 is also 

issued, mutatis mutandis, by WMO as 

Technical Regulations [C.3.1], i.e. a 

document identical to ICAO Annex 3 

except for a few minor details involving 

terminology that do not alter the 

substance of the document. 

The various chapters of Annex 3/ 

Technical Regulations [C.3.1] outline 

the overall responsibilities of the 

designated meteorological authority 

for the provision of services and facilities 

for international air navigation. The 

associated appendices in Annex 3/ 

Technical Regulations [C.3.1] provide 

the detailed specifications for use by 

those actually providing these services. 

The areas covered include 

aerodrome observations and forecasts, 

warnings (both in the terminal 

area and en-route), forecasts for enroute 

issued by the World Area 

Forecast Centres (London and 

Washington), advisories for volcanic 

ash and tropical cyclones, air reporting, 

needs for meteorological information 

by air traffic service units and communications 

requirements. 

A number of other documents are 

issued as guidance material by ICAO 

and WMO in order to provide ICAO 

Contracting States and WMO 

Members with additional information 

to assist them in implementing the 

provisions contained in Annex 3/ 

Technical Regulations [C3.1]. A 

complete list of ICAO and WMO 

Manuals and Guides are available from 

the ICAO and WMO Websites at 

www.icao.int and www.wmo.int, 

respectively. 

In accordance with the working 

arrangements between the two 

Organizations, major amendments to 

Annex 3 are developed by conjoint 

ICAO/WMO meetings. Between 

EUROCONTROL and the 

Single European Sky 

Since 2001, air traffic management 

in the European Union (EU) 

is undertaken by Member States, 

cooperating through EURO- 

CONTROL, an intergovernmental 

organization comprising EU 

Member States and most other 

European States. 

The Single European Sky initiative 

is intended to organize airspace 

and air navigation at a European 

rather than at a local level. It will 

organize this airspace uniformly, 

with air traffic control areas based 

on operational efficiency, not 

national borders, integrating civil 

and military air traffic 

management. 

conjoint meetings, most of the 

proposed amendments to Annex 3/ 

Technical Regulations [C.3.1] are 

developed by the ICAO Secretariat 

with the assistance of ICAO operations 

and study groups. These are 

composed of experts nominated by 

States and international organizations, 

including WMO. 

Currently, there are six such groups 

working on the World Area Forecast 

System satellite distribution system 

for information relating to air navigation 

(SADIS), international airways 

volcano watch, wind shear, automatic 

meteorological observing systems and 

the use of data link for the uplink and 

downlink of meteorological information. 

All draft amendments developed 

by these groups are sent for consultation 

to ICAO Contracting States and 

WMO Members before being submitted 

for adoption by the ICAO Council 

and approval by the WMO Executive 

Council. 

In accordance with the Working 

Arrangements between WMO and 

ICAO referred to earlier, through the 

WMO Commission for Aeronautical 

Meteorology (CAeM), responsible for 

implementing the WMO Aeronautical 

Meteorology Programme (AeMP), 

WMO is responsible for training 

meteorological personnel and for 

specifying the technical methods and 

practices to be used for the provision 

of meteorological service to international 

air navigation. 

The Commission’s session in 2002 

established eight expert teams under 

two broad open programme area 

groups (OPAG): OPAG-TREND, dealing 

essentially with training, improvements 

to forecasts, quality 

management and performance measurement; 

and OPAG-PROMET, 

responsible for customer focus, cost 

recovery, operational services and 

observations in the terminal area. The 

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94 

Commission nominated two rapporteurs, 

one for the Aircraft 

Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) 

Programme and the other for aviation 

and the global atmospheric environment. 

In order to ensure that the needs 

of aviation users are fully addressed, 

representatives of ICAO, the International 

Air Transport Association 

(IATA) and the International Federation 

of Air Line Pilots Associations are 

invited to participate in meetings of 

these CAeM structures. Furthermore, 

in 2004, WMO and IATA established 

focal points between the two 

Organizations to facilitate frequent 

contacts followed by similar arrangements 

with EUROCONTROL in 2005. 

This was prompted by the increased 

involvement of that Organization in 

activities related to the newly established 

Single European Sky (see box on 

previous page). 

In addition to the close cooperation 

between ICAO and WMO through 

CAeM, the WMO Commission for 

Basic Systems (CBS) is actively 

involved in ensuring the timely availability 

of basic meteorological data on 

which aviation weather forecasts are 

based. In this regard, the contribution 

of the AMDAR Programme to the 

availability of timely and accurate 

upper-air observations at various forecasting 

centres, including the two 

World Area Forecast Centres, has 

resulted in positive impacts on aviation 

forecast accuracy. 

Furthermore, CBS is also responsible 

for developing and updating the aeronautical 

meteorological codes used to 

disseminate aviation meteorological 

information. In this context, any new 

or updated aeronautical requirements 

included in ICAO Annex 3/WMO 

Technical Regulations [C.3.1] are 

subsequently reflected in the WMO 

Manual on Codes (WMO-No. 306, 

Volume I.1, Part A) following approval 

by CBS. ICAO is also interested in the 

The early detection of explosive volcano eruptions could serve as an early indication of the 

possible presence of airborne volcanic ash that is a serious threat to flight safety. 

emergency response activities of 

CBS, in particular the Comprehensive 

Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization/ 

WMO Emergency Response Activities. 

The potential usefulness of 

monitoring information for the early 

detection of explosive volcano eruptions 

could serve as an early 

indication of the possible presence of 

airborne volcanic ash that is a serious 

threat to flight safety. 

The contribution of the WMO 

Commission for Instruments and 

Methods of Observations (CIMO) is 

essential for ensuring that the latest 

information concerning the capability 

of automatic meteorological observing 

systems are forwarded to ICAO 

for the development of future requirements. 

The Commission for 

Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) through 

its World Weather Research 

Programme is accelerating research 

on the prediction of high-impact 

weather and encouraging the utilization 

of advances in weather 

prediction systems to the benefit of 

all WMO programmes including the 

AeMP. 

As indicated in the Working 

Arrangements between ICAO and 

WMO and stipulated in standard 2.1.5 

of Annex 3/Technical Regulations 

[C.3.1], WMO is responsible for the 

training and qualification of personnel 

providing meteorological service for 

international air navigation. In this 

regard, guidelines for the education 

and training of personnel in aeronautical 

meteorology, as well as relevant 

training material, are developed by the 

WMO Education and Training 

Programme (ETR) in close collaboration 

with relevant CAeM structures 

and active involvement of ICAO. This 

collaborative effort among ETR, CAeM 

and ICAO is expected to be actively 

pursued in the future. 

Key challenges to the meteorological 

community for ensuring the continued 

availability of good-quality, timely and 

cost-effective meteorological service 

to aviation include, among others, the

need for ensuring the sustainability of 

the WMO World Weather Watch 

Programme that provides the basic 

data, data processing, transmission 

and forecasting on which meteorological 

service to aviation is based; 

increased automation of aerodrome 

meteorological observing systems; 

and improved terminal forecasts. 

Capacity building needs to be 

enhanced to ensure that aeronautical 

meteorologists, particularly those in 

developing countries, are abreast of 

new technologies and adequately 

trained. 

Other challenges include increased 

reliance on the recovery of meteorological 

service costs from the aviation 

industry to fund aeronautical meteorological 

activities and meteorological 

infrastructure, particularly in view of a 

noted trend toward the disengagements 

of States from fully funding the 

traditional providers of service to aviation, 

namely National Meteorological 

Services (NMSs). This tendency has 

resulted in the increased use of alternative 

service delivery for aeronautical 

meteorological services, including the 

commercialization of some of these 

services and, increasingly, the establishment 

of fully autonomous national 

meteorological entities. 

Continued closer contacts with aviation 

users and their representative 

organizations, both at the global, 

regional and national levels, are particularly 

important to ensure that the 

services provided meet users’ needs 

and that users understand the existing 

capabilities and also the limitations of 

such providers to deliver the required 

services to the aviation industry. In 

view of the financial difficulties being 

experienced by a number of airlines, 

due in part to increased expenditure 

on fuel, and other constraints such as 

more competition among air carriers, 

the airline industry is more than ever 

before insisting on the transparency of 

charges paid to air navigation service 

providers, being in most cases the 

NMSs. 

The airlines have developed strict 

procedures for the use of meteorological 

information to improve safety and 

cost effectiveness. These procedures 

are based on a thorough evaluation of 

the value and also the limitation of 

meteorological observations and forecasts. 

With continuing aviation growth 

and demands for safety, efficiency and 

capacity, airlines and air-traffic 

management organizations are more 

than ever dependent on weather information 

for planning and safety. Future 

challenges will be for meteorological 

service providers to exploit the 

increasing availability of information 

and relevant detail in predictions from 

numerical models to improve the accuracy, 

content and relevance of the 

information provided to the aviation 

industry. 

Future perspectives 

The future requirements for aeronautical 

meteorology are expected to 

reflect technological developments 

which will allow more efficient methods 

of production and dissemination 

of meteorological information. 

The recent investments in research by 

the two World Area Forecast Centres 

are expected to result in their ability to 

produce gridded forecasts of turbu- 

lence, icing and convective clouds. It 

is conceivable that, in the future, 

these forecasts will replace the 

current significant weather information. 

It is expected that gridded 

forecasts will provide aviation users 

with more accurate information at the 

pre-flight planning stage and that the 

production of such forecasts will be 

more efficient and will, ultimately, be 

fully automated. 

One of the most important anticipated 

developments over the next few 

years will be the introduction of 

table-driven codes (principally BUFR) 

for METAR/SPECI and TAF. The 

current communications infrastructure 

operated by ICAO is not able to 

cope with such digital codes. A careful 

planning process for this 

migration at the global, regional and 

national levels will, therefore, be 

necessary. The intention is that the 

migration will be completed globally 

by 2015. 

Requirements for meteorological 

information in support of the new 

ICAO air traffic management (ATM) 

concept are expected to be developed 

by a number of ICAO initiatives 

over the next few years. The 

purpose of the future ATM systems 

is the optimization of the use of the 

airspace. In this context, it is 

expected that new requirements will 

be formulated as far as meteorological 

information is concerned. The 

work in this area will involve close 

coordination with the relevant Air 

Traffic Services authorities and it is 

expected that specific proposals by 

ATM and meteorological experts will 

be developed by ICAO in close coordination 

with WMO. 

95

96 

Maritime 

information 

for safety at 

sea 

Introduction 

By Henri Savina* 

Photo: CC Technolgies 

The safety of all kinds of vessels, 

from the biggest cargoes or tankers to 

the smallest recreational boats, are 

highly vulnerable to weather and 

oceanic natural hazards (strong winds, 

heavy seas, very poor visibility, etc.) 

and to other hazards that can sometimes 

be impacted by, or related to, 

meteorological or oceanographic conditions 

(e.g. the drift of dangerous 

submerged or floating objects, such 

as lost containers). 

Thus, to avoid loss of life and cargo 

(especially if the latter is of a hazardous 

nature), it is of primary importance to 

provide the appropriate—and evolving—Maritime 

Safety Information 

(MSI) to the large range of marine 

users. These include the industry 

waiting for detailed and focused 

safety information, reflecting increasing 

pressure on economic performance 

and the intention to operate in 

marginal conditions to gain advantage, 

to the smallest and less equipped 

crafts, that can also be of primary economic 

importance (fishing vessels in 

developing countries, for example). 

Maritime Safety Information (MSI) 

for mariners 

MSI provided to ships at sea can be 

divided into several types, including 

information related to search-andrescue 

operations, meteorological/ 

oceanographic warnings and forecasts 

(generally provided by National Meteorological 

and Hydrological Services 

(NMHSs) or oceanographic centres) 

and navigational warnings (generally 

provided by National Hydrographic 

Offices). 

The dissemination of such information 

at sea may be done in various 

and multiple ways, such as VHF or 

HF radio, radio-telex, satellites, etc., 

that can be fixed both at national or 

international level. It is of primary 

importance for mariners to know 

what information (content, broadcast 

scheduled time, dissemination channel) 

is available for their areas. Specialized 

agencies or companies issue 

and update specific official publications, 

e.g. the Admiralty List of Radio 

Signals (UK Hydrographic Office) or 

Stations Radiométéorologiques 

(SH96 from the French Hydrographic 

Office) to be used on board ships. 

* Operations Officer, Marine and Oceanographic Division, Forecasting Department, Météo- 

France and Chairman of the JCOMM Expert Team on Maritime Safety Services 

For meteorological/oceanographic 

MSI, this information comes from 

publication WMO-No. 99, Volume D. 

This is continuously updated, thanks 

to the contribution of all NMHS that 

are requested to provide to the 

WMO Secretariat (Ocean Affairs Division) 

all expected changes in their 

national dissemination system. 

Contemporary regulations and related 

conventions dealing with safety of 

shipping, preservation of life, carriage 

of hazardous cargo and discharge of 

ballast can be traced to the Safety of 

Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS), which 

resulted from the Titanic disaster in 

1912. This Convention and the associated 

regulations and guidance materials 

for the provision of MSI are coordinated 

by the International Maritime 

Organization (IMO), the specialized 

Inmarsat 

Inmarsat provides telephony and 

data services to users worldwide, 

via special digital radios called 

"terminals". An Inmarsat terminal 

contacts the satellite and 

communicates to a ground 

station through the satellite. It 

provides reliable communications 

services to a wide range of users 

in remote regions or where there 

is no reliable terrestrial network. 

NAVTEX 

The NAVTEX system NAVTEX is a 

narrow-band, direct-printing 

telegraphy service for the promulgation 

of coastal and offshore 

maritime safety information.

Shore 

Organization 

Region(s) 

Affected 

Broadcast 

Services 

Shipboard 

Equipment 

agency of the United Nations with 

responsibility for ship safety and the 

prevention of marine pollution. The 

specific regulations for the provision 

of meteorological/oceanographic 

warnings and forecasts are coordinated 

by the WMO/IOC Joint Technical 

Commission for Oceanography 

and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) 

and those for navigational warnings by 

the International Hydrographic Organization 

(IHO). Signatory States provide 

MSI free of charge to all shipping regulated 

by the Convention (all passenger 

vessels and all cargo ships of 

300 gross tonnage and upwards on 

international voyages). 

The Global Maritime Distress and 

Safety System (GMDSS) 

NAV Warnings Met Information SAR alerts 

Ship distress and safety communications 

entered a new era on 

1 February 1999 with the full implementation 

of the Global Maritime Distress 

and Safety System (GMDSS)— 

an integrated communications system 

MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION 

(coordinating /editing function) 

AREA BROADCAST 

Region A Region B 

Region C 

Region D 

Local NAVTEX Tx Local NAVTEX Tx Local LES Local LES 

518 kHz 

NAVTEX Receiver 

Inmarsat Network 

Coordination Station (NCS) 

Ocean Region Satellite 

EGC SafetyNET Receiver 

Figure 1 — The International Maritime Safety Information Service 

(Copyright UK Hydrographic Office, issued from Admiralty List of Radio Signals, Vol. 5) 

using satellite and terrestrial radiocommunications 

to ensure that wherever 

a ship is in distress, aid can be 

dispatched. This System regulates 

also the provision of MSI, both meteorological 

and navigational information, 

for SOLAS vessels on a global basis 

(Figure 1). All text-based information 

provided through the system is in 

English. 

The GMDSS was developed by IMO 

in close cooperation with the International 

Telecommunication Union, 

WMO, IHO and also COSPAS- 

SARSAT (an international satellite 

system coordinated by Canada, 

France, the Russian Federation and 

the USA). 

Since 1 February 1999, all SOLAS 

ships have had to comply with the 

GMDSS, and be fitted with all applicable 

satellite and radio-communication 

GMDSS equipment, according to the 

sea area(s) in which the ship operates, 

for sending and receiving distress 

alerts and MSI and for general com- 

munications. The GMDSS requirements 

are contained in Chapter IV of 

SOLAS on radio-communications and 

were adopted in 1988. The GMDSS 

communications system under 

SOLAS complements the International 

Convention on Maritime Search 

and Rescue (1979), which was 

adopted in order to develop a global 

search-and-rescue plan. 

Specific equipment requirements for 

ships vary according to the sea area(s) 

in which the ship operates. The 

GMDSS combines various subsystems—which 

all have different limitations 

with respect to coverage—into 

one overall system, and the oceans 

are divided into four sea areas: 

Area A1—within range of VHF coast 

stations (about 20-30 nautical miles, 

i.e. 35-55 km); 

Area A2—beyond area A1, but 

within range of MF coastal stations 

(about 100 nautical miles, i.e. 

180 km); 

Area A3—beyond the first two 

areas, but within coverage of geostationary 

maritime communication 

satellites (in practice this means 

Inmarsat (see box on previous 

page). This covers the area between 

roughly 70°N and 70°S; 

Area A4—the remaining sea areas, 

generally polar regions. Geostationary 

satellites, which are positioned 

Figure 2 — NAVTEX receiver 

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98 

above the Equator, cannot reach 

this far. 

Coastal vessels, for example, only 

have to carry minimal equipment if 

they do not operate beyond the range 

of shore-based VHF radio stations, but 

they may carry satellite equipment. 

Some coasts, however, do not have 

shore-based facilities so, although the 

ship is close to shore, the area counts 

as Area A2 or A3. Ships which do go 

beyond Sea Area A1 have to carry MF 

equipment as well as VHF—or 

Inmarsat satellite equipment. Ships 

which operate beyond MF range have 

to carry Inmarsat satellite equipment 

in addition to both VHF and MF. Ships 

which operate in area A4 have to carry 

HF, MF and VHF equipment. 

Under the GMDSS requirements, all 

ships concerned are required to be 

equipped with Inmarsat (Area A3) 

and/or international NAVTEX (see box 

on page 96) receivers (Area A2)—see 

Figure 2—to automatically receive 

MSI. Most fishing vessels and recreational 

boaters, which are non-SOLAS 

vessels (i.e. not required to participate 

in the GMDSS), are generally not 

equipped with such receivers, except 

in some parts of the world. 

GMDSS Inmarsat SafetyNET 

broadcast 

The International Mobile Satellite 

Organization (IMSO) (previously the 

International Maritime Satellite 

Organization) was established by 

IMO in 1976 to operate satellite 

maritime communication systems 

(and in particular the four Inmarsat 

geostationary satellites—see Figure 

3). It has become a privately owned 

company, whilst retaining its public 

sector obligations to the maritime 

distress and safety system. 

Inmarsat provides the space segment 

capacity to the GMDSS, 

Figure 3 — Inmarsat Satellites coverage 

(Copyright UK Hydrographic Office, issued from Admiralty List of Radio Signals. Vol. 5) 

including interaction with all 

Inmarsat LES (Land Earth Stations) 

operated by independent telecommunications 

corporations around 

the world. This space segment 

constellation provides a worldwide 

satellite coverage, except for the 

extreme polar regions. 

The Inmarsat SafetyNET Service is 

used by registered providers to 

broadcast MSI to mariners, according 

to a schedule table. Ships 

equipped with an Inmarsat C terminal, 

logged on one of the four 

satellites, will receive automatically 

the safety information for their 

location. 

International and national 

NAVTEX systems 

The transmission coverage/service 

area, defined in SOLAS, extends 

from the Fairway Buoy/Pilot Station 

to 250 nautical miles (i.e. 

about 450 km) from the NAVTEX 

station (transmitter) or to the 

range declared in the IMO GMDSS 

Master Plan. In particular, NAVTEX 

cannot be considered as a reliable 

system to receive meteorological 

information in port (other systems 

should be made available for endusers 

to obtain meteorological 

information in harbour). 

The international NAVTEX Service 

is the coordinated broadcast and 

automatic reception on the frequency 

518 kHz of MSI using the 

English language. As NAVTEX is a 

single frequency system, each 

NAVTEX station and content 

provider must take measures to 

prevent mutual interference with 

other stations. To avoid such 

mutual interference, each NAVTEX 

station is assigned specific time 

slots, which are 10 minutes in 

length every four hours (stations 

which share common time slots 

are arranged to be geographically

Figure 4 — Metareas (top); Navareas (bottom) 

distant). Responsibility for coordinating 

the establishment of the 

global NAVTEX service has been 

vested by IMO in its NAVTEX 

Coordinating Panel, that is in 

charge, in particular to assign the 

identification letter and the time 

slots allocated to each NAVTEX 

station. 

The two frequencies 490 kHz and 

4209.5 kHz are available to administrations 

for national NAVTEX broadcasts 

using their national language 

or English, particularly for non- 

SOLAS vessels. Although it is not 

part of GMDSS, it has also to be 

coordinated by the IMO NAVTEX 

Coordinating Panel. 

GMDSS coordinating mechanisms 

and WMO contribution 

For broadcast purposes, but also to 

ensure that services are available 

worldwide, the world’s oceans are 

divided into 16 areas, called either 

Metareas (for meteorological information) 

or Navareas (for navigational 

warnings) (see Figure 4). 

Each Metarea (Navarea) is under the 

responsibility of a National Meteorological 

Service named Issuing Service 

(or a National Hydrographic Office 

named Navarea Coordinator). The issuing 

Service (or Coordinator) is responsible 

for the provision (i.e. preparation 

and dissemination) of safety information 

on the Inmarsat SafetyNET broadcast 

and also for the coordination of 

such information on the NAVTEX 

broadcast within its Metarea or 

Navarea. Other Services may provide 

some information for the Inmarsat 

SafetyNET broadcast, as Preparation 

Services: they are given responsibilities 

to prepare MSI for a specific part 

of the Metarea or in relation to a specific 

phenomenon, but the dissemination 

at sea is done by the Issuing Service. 

For example, South Africa is the 

Issuing Service for Metarea VII, but 

France (La Réunion) is responsible for 

preparing tropical cyclone warnings 

and also forecasts for some Antarctic 

subareas in the South-West Indian 

Ocean. Such products are sent to 

South Africa, in charge of the dissemination 

of all meteorological MSI by 

SafetyNET for Metarea VII. 

To participate as an information 

provider in the International Safety- 

NET Service, all Metarea Issuing Services 

and Navarea Coordinators 

must register with the IMO Safety- 

NET Panel to obtain a certificate of 

Authorization. This certificate is 

requested to obtain permission from 

Inmarsat Land Earth Station Operators 

(LESOs) to broadcast on the 

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100 

SafetyNET channel. Issuing Services 

or Coordinators are then able to disseminate 

through this channel MSI 

prepared for a whole Metarea, a circular 

or a rectangular area (Figures 5 

and 6). 

The WMO contribution to the 

GMDSS is coordinated by JCOMM, 

with the support of the meteorological 

Issuing Services, through two 

specific expert teams from the Services 

Programme Area : 

The Expert Team on Maritime 

Safety Services (ETMSS) for the 

dissemination of warnings and 

weather and sea bulletins according 

to a broadcast schedule. 

In particular, the ETMSS has a mandate 

to: 

• Monitor and review the operations 

of marine broadcast systems, not 

only for the GMDSS, but also for 

others related to vessels not covered 

by the SOLAS convention; 

• Monitor and review the technical 

and service quality standards for 

meteorological and oceanographic 

maritime safety information (particularly 

for the GMDSS); and 

• Implement appropriate actions to 

ensure that feedback from user 

communities is obtained through 

appropriate and organized channels 

and applied to improve the relevance, 

effectiveness and quality of 

services; 

The ETMSS has to prepare and 

submit both regulatory (what Member 

States shall do) and guidance 

(what Member States should do) 

material regarding meteorological/ 

oceanographic MSI; 

The Expert Team on Marine Accident 

Emergency Support 

(ETMAES) for the provision, to 

Figure 5 — SafetyNET message addressed to a circular area 


Figure 6 — SafetyNET message addressed to a rectangular area 


national or international authorities 

(including Navareas co-ordinators), 

of specific meteorological 

and oceanographic 

information in case of marine 

pollution or SAR operations. 

The ETMAES has a mandate to: 

• Monitor and improve the WMO 

Marine Pollution Emergency 

Response Support System 

(MPERSS) implementation and 

operations; 

• Monitor requirements and improve 

provision of meteorological and

Figure 7 — Container drift forecast issued by model MOTHY from Météo-France: position 

where container was lost as red star, drift forecasts (tracks), using different immersion rates 

in green lines, position of container when found. Such information can be used to optimize 

search-and-rescue operations and/or to prepare appropriate MSI to alert mariners of location 

of dangerous areas. 

oceanographic data, information, 

products and services to support 

maritime search-and-rescue operations 

worldwide. 

All WMO regulation and guidance 

material is included either in the Manual 

on Marine Meteorological Services 

(WMO-No. 558) or in the Guide on 

Marine Meteorological Services 

(WMO-No. 471). 

The IHO contribution to the GMDSS, 

the World-Wide Navigational Warning 

Service (WWNWS), is coordinated by 

the IHO Commission for the Promulgation 

of Radio Navigational Warnings, 

with the support of Navarea 

coordinators. 

What about non-SOLAS vessels 

(fishing vessels, recreational 

boats …)? 

For non-SOLAS vessels, which may 

well be the most vulnerable and sen- 

sitive to weather and oceanic conditions, 

local laws and regulations and 

services available through national or 

nearby weather or ocean services 

agencies may or may not be sufficient. 

Problems in many areas of the 

developing world are likely to render 

the dissemination or even the production 

of MSI to mariners problematical. 

Some non-SOLAS vessels, like cruising 

boats, can be equipped with 

GMDSS receivers, but most are not. 

MSI prepared for large SOLAS ships 

are, however, generally not adapted 

to the vulnerability of small craft. If 

general regulations and guidelines for 

the provision of meteorological and 

oceanographic MSI in open seas, offshore 

and coastal areas, and also in 

ports are included in the WMO Manual 

and Guide on Marine Meteorological 

Services, the services available at 

sea for non-SOLAS vessels depend 

on national capacities to produce 

appropriate MSI for the areas and the 

vessels concerned (warning criteria, 

for example, should be adapted to the 

vulnerability of targeted fleets) and to 

disseminate such safety information 

at sea through relevant channels, 

according to the telecommunication 

equipment on board those various 

ships (national administrations should 

also keep in mind that foreign non- 

SOLAS ships also need local safety 

information). Appropriate information 

and education materials should also 

be prepared and made available to 

mariners, to ensure that they are 

aware of the risks they may have to 

face, as far as possible, and know the 

ways to get appropriate warnings and 

forecasts for such risks. 

JCOMM, of course, has to play a key 

role in the provision of requested 

capacity-building for the provision of 

MSI fitted for non-SOLAS vessels. 

The Commission will also encourage 

and promote national or regional projects 

for the implementation or 

upgrade of telecommunication networks 

and the equipment of fleets 

with appropriate MSI receivers. 

Key issues for the future 

The GMDSS has proved its efficiency 

and usefulness for mariners. Nevertheless, 

the requirements of maritime 

users, specifically the navies 

and global merchant fleets, have 

grown in response to change and 

innovation in ship design, the sharp 

increase in economic and competitive 

pressures and the increasing 

sophistication of shipboard environmental 

monitoring equipment and 

information and decision-support systems 

available on the bridge. 

Existing gaps, economic pressure, 

growing fleets of fishing vessels or 

recreational/cruising boats in some 

parts of the world are also an important 

factor to deal with. They are also 

a good stimulus to improve the issue 

101

102 

of natural disaster warnings for vessels 

which are not subject to the provisions 

of the SOLAS Convention (i.e. 

passenger and cargo ships engaged 

on domestic voyages, cargo ships 

engaged on international voyages 

whose gross tonnage is less than 

500, fishing vessels, ships of primitive 

build and pleasure yachts not engaged 

in trade). 

Some key issues for the future could 

be highlighted, in particular: 

Improve the dissemination of relevant 

safety information related to 

marine hazards in coastal and shelf 

areas, including tsunami-related 

information, for both SOLAS and 

non-SOLAS vessels. Regarding 

tsunami, the tragedy resulting from 

the Sumatran earthquake of 

26 December 2004, has demonstrated, 

among other things, the 

overwhelming importance of having 

in place global, operational, 

robust and accurate tsunami warning 

services; 

MSI should also include, if available, 

tsunami-related information. 

The obvious reason is that all vessels 

in exposed areas (i.e. in ports, 

harbours or coastal areas) can be 

damaged or destroyed by tsunami 

and crews injured or lost. But, 

more generally, all potential channels 

to reach and alert threatened 

coastal communities and activities 

should be considered, at least as 

supplementary or interim ways, 

including those systems implemented 

for the provision of MSI to 

the maritime community; 

For example, the SafetyNET international 

service could be used, as 

proposed by IMO, to disseminate 

warnings to the relevant government 

offices or local communities, 

either directly or indirectly, using 

SOLAS vessels as relays, espe- 

Figure 7 — GMDSS Website (http://weather.gmdss.org) 

cially in coastal areas with nonexistent, 

inadequate or limited 

telecommunications infrastructure. 

Coordinating mechanisms have to 

be prepared in cooperation 

between IMO, IHO, WMO and the 

Intergovernmental Oceanographic 

Commission of UNESCO; 

Improve the content and/or dissemination 

of MSI, by integration 

of science and technology, especially 

regarding the sea state 

(description of complex and dangerous 

seas, study of the feasibility 

to provide risk information on freak 

waves) and sea ice. The coverage 

of polar regions should also be 

enhanced; 

Provide MSI in graphical form: 

clearly, the provision of MSI within 

GMDSS is constrained by format, 

technology and limits to additional 

utility/functionality, especially due 

to low bandwidth systems such as 

NAVTEX and even Inmarsat 

SafetyNET, that limit the volume 

of information that can be broadcast. 

Some specific guidelines and 

abbreviations for the preparation 

of NAVTEX meteorological MSI 

have been recently approved by 

JCOMM for this purpose. But one 

of the main challenges for the 

future is the dissemination of 

GMDSS MSI in graphical or 

numerical form (that could be 

included, as overlays, in the electronic 

navigational charts now 

widely used by commercial ships), 

especially to replace the radio-facsimile 

broadcast; 

More generally, it is important for 

WMO to influence the regulators on 

the evolution of systems used to 

disseminate MSI, and to facilitate 

the access to such information on 

board ships or onshore. The 

JCOMM GMDSS Website 

(http://weather. gmdss.org (see Figure 

7), providing access in real-time 

to meteorological MSI prepared for 

SafetyNET dissemination, developed 

and maintained by Météo- 

France (WMO Bulletin 53 (2) (April 

2004)), should be considered as a 

contribution. This first version 

could be significantly enriched 

and improved by including additional 

products (graphics,

NAVTEX, ice information,...); integrating 

appropriate dynamic links 

with WMO associated documentation 

or other severe weatherrelated 

Websites; including navi- 

gational warning information in 

cooperation with IHO; 

Coordination mechanisms. As 

recommended by IMO, safety 

information provided to SOLAS 

vessels within the GMDSS shall 

be coordinated, in particular to 

provide non-conflicting warnings 

to mariners. This coordination, as 

described before, is under the 

responsibility of Navarea 

Coordinators and Metarea 

Issuing Services. There is still 

significant scope to improve this 

coordination for the provision of 

meteorological/oceanographic 

MSI worldwide, to follow, for 

example, the virtue of the 

operational coordinating system 

put in place for the Baltic Sea. 

For European waters, the 

definition of coordinated 

common systems for the 

designation of marine forecast 

subareas to be used in 

meteorological warnings or 

scheduled bulletins (see WMO 

Bulletin 53 (2)) has to be seen as 

a contribution to such a 

coordinating mechanism. But this 

is only a first step … 

103

104 

Wind energy 

in China: 

towards a 

better 

service 

By Zhai Panmao* and Yang Zhenbin* 

Background 

Climate elements such as sunlight, 

heat, water and wind are natural 

resources that can be used in many 

socio-economic sectors. For 

instance, when climate provides 

energy for crops, it can be considered 

an agrometeorological resource. 

Climate also can be a tourism 

resource. Wind energy and solar radiation 

can be used as resources for 

power generation. They are impor- 

* China Meteorological Administration, 

Beijing, China 

Figure 1 — The growth in size of commercial wind turbines (EWEA et al., 2004) 

tant renewable and environmentally 

friendly energies in the modern 

world. 

Energy demand grows tremendously 

with rapid socio-economic development. 

It is predicted that, in 2020, 

energy consumption in China will 

have at least doubled that of 2002 

(http://www.cppcc.gov.cn/rmzxb/ 

200601170078.htm). Such energy 

consumption is a challenge for conventional 

energy and also a heavy 

burden for the environment. Adjusting 

energy structure and increasing 

energy efficiency are the only 

choices for developing countries 

such as China. 

To cope with the energy issue, the 

Chinese Government has been taking 

measures to promote the development 

of renewable energy. For 

example, on 28 February 2005, the 

National People’s Congress of China 

passed the Chinese Renewable 

Energy Law. This law defines responsibilities 

and obligations of government, 

enterprises and users in the 

development and utilization of 

renewable energy and provides a 

series of policies and measures, 

including a total quantity objective 

system, prices management system 

and special funds system. In force 

since 1 January 2006, it is foreseen 

that this law will greatly promote the 

The accumulative installed capacity of wind power worldwide 

(EWEA, 2005) 

Year Increase (MW) 

Accumulative 

installed capacity 

(MW) 

Increase rate 

(per cent) 

1997 1568 7 636 — 

1998 2517 10 153 32.96 

1999 3779 13 932 27.22 

2000 4517 18 449 32.42 

2001 6478 24 927 35.11 

2002 7110 32 037 28.52 

2003 8129 40 301 25.79 

2004 8321 47 616 21.20 

Average — — 30.46

development of renewable energy in 

China. 

Among all the renewable energies, 

wind power has developed most 

quickly. Figure 1 shows the growth in 

size of commercial wind turbines, 

which means the capacity of single 

wind turbine is becoming larger and 

larger. Economically, the cost of windpower 

generation and the price of 

wind-power electricity worldwide has 

dropped rapidly in the last 10 years 

(EWEA et al., 2004). The table on the 

previous page gives the accumulative 

installed global capacity of wind power. 

It shows that the development of wind 

power has increased at the rate of 

30.46 per cent annually over the last 

seven years. 

The Chinese Government has also paid 

attention to the technical development in 

wind energy. In recent years, wind 

energy has been developed with an 

increase of power generation from 

20 MW in 1992 to nearly 200 MW in 

2004 (see Figure 2). By the end of 2004, 

the total installed capacity of wind power 

in China reached 764 MW (see Figure 3) 

(EWEA et al., 2004). To further exploit 

wind energy, China formulated a Midlong 

Term Development Plan for windpower 

development in 2003: within 

about two years, China will conduct a 

wind-energy resource assessment, 

based on which, 20 wind-farm sites with 

a generation capacity of more than 

100 000 kW will be selected, nationwide. 

By 2020, China’s wind- power capacity 

will reach 30 000 MW (NDRC, 2005), i.e. 

a 30-fold increase over the next 14 years. 

Wind-energy development 

The China Meteorological Administration 

(CMA) is in charge of the management 

of climate resources, including 

wind energy. It has carried out many 

projects on assessing wind energy in 

recent decades. 

MW 

Figure 2 — Annual increase in installed capacity of wind power in China (Shi, 2005) 

Services for national and provincial 

governments and private 

developers 

The CMA completed a first round of 

wind-energy assessments in the 

1970s, based on wind data from some 

900 meteorological stations. The second 

round on general wind-resource 

investigation was finished in the 

1980s. The total potential of wind 

energy in China is 3 226 GW and the 

practical exploitable amount of 

253 GW was proposed (Xue et al., 

2002). It should be noted that this 

amount does not include offshore 

potential, which is estimated to be 

approximately three times that of the 

800 

700 

600 

500 

400 

300 

200 

100 

0 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 

land area. Furthermore, the two 

rounds of wind-energy assessment 

are very general because of limited 

data. With the rapid development of 

techniques for meteorological observation 

and data digitization, the CMA 

has accumulated wind data from more 

than 2 400 stations for a period of 

more than 50 years. 

In order to provide a better basis for 

China’s ambitious wind-energy expansion 

plan, a more detailed windresource 

assessment project is being 

implemented. The third assessment is 

based mainly on wind data from those 

2 400 meteorological stations, supplemented 

by data from automatic 

167 

57 

764 

567 

468 

399 

344 

268 

224 

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 

Figure 3 — The accumulative installed capacity of wind power (MW) in China (Shi, 2005) 

105

106 

weather stations, wind farms and 

wind towers, though it is still mainly 

based on measured wind speeds at a 

height of 10 m. Figure 4 shows the initial 

results. 

Additionally, the CMA is carrying out a 

series of pioneer studies on windenergy 

assessment, based on various 

techniques such as satellite remotesensing, 

geographical information systems 

and numerical simulations. 

Though the wind data collected are 

numerous, the distance between two 

observation sites ranges from about 

20 km in the east to 100 km in the 

west. Furthermore, many wind data 

are usually collected from sites near 

cities. The places with complex terrains 

with high wind-energy potential 

lack observations. With rapid socioeconomic 

development, the environment 

around the meteorological stations 

has changed greatly. It is 

necessary to assess the impact of 

environmental change on wind-data 

homogeneity. One other limitation is 

that most of the historical wind data 

are observations at 10 m height, 

which does not meet the requirements 

for recently developed large 

wind turbines. 

Considering the above facts, the China 

Meteorological Administration is planning 

to establish an observation network, 

extend its services to meet 

national interests and identify the 

immediate needs of end-users. Relying 

on recent developments in meteorological 

science and technology and 

capacity building, the CMA is cooperating 

with relevant organizations to 

form a specialized team and take more 

active measures to promote the development 

of wind energy in China. 

Wind Energy Assessment Centre 

In order to enhance capacity-building 

in support of climate-related renew- 

able energy development, the CMA 

has brought together experts from 

various institutes and set up a specialized 

Wind Energy and Solar Energy 

Assessment Centre under the 

National Climate Centre. This Centre 

is leading CMA’s activities related to 

climate resources, with the focus on 

wind energy. Based on CMA’s institutional 

structure, this centre of excellence 

is responsible for facilitating 

downstream training in relevant disciplines, 

especially wind-energy assessment 

models and techniques. 

Future activities 

Developing manuals and guidelines 

In order to standardize the observation 

and assessment of wind-energy development, 

manuals and guidelines of 

wind-energy measurement and assessment 

must be developed. In China, 

internationally produced manuals and 

guidelines for these purposes are 

reviewed on an ongoing basis and used 

for the development of similar manuals 

and guidelines for national needs. 

Models for mesoscale wind-energy 

mapping 

In view of the need for mapping the 

turbine height mesoscale wind climate, 

the CMA is enhancing research 

capacity in this field and is working 

with the Meteorological Service of 

Canada on developing the WEST 

model (Treon and Petersen, 1989) in 

China. As soon as the wind-energy 

mapping system based on the numerical 

model has been built, a high-resolution 

wind atlas of China can be 

made. The CMA then intends to set 

up a national wind-energy resource 

database, which will be updated regularly 

and provide information for all 

users. 

Software for wind-farm 

micro-sitting 

The CMA is also working with the 

Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 

introducing WAsP (Tron et al., 1989) 

(Wind Atlas Analysis and Application 

Program), a software tool developed 

by the Danish Risø national labora- 

Figure 4 — The distribution of wind-power in China (initial result of the new project)

tory for wind-farm micro-siting using 

a linear wind-farm diagnosis model. 

Our experience of using WAsP for 

micro-siting in complex terrain suggests 

that the uncertainty in assessing 

annual production of the wind 

farm is too large. Another plan is for 

the CMA to develop wind-farm 

micro-siting software based on an 

aerodynamical model to meet specific 

requirements. 

Offshore wind energy 

The Chinese Government also plans to 

exploit offshore wind energy. This will 

necessitate an investigation of 

resources, which will provide the primary 

scientific foundation for design 

and construction. 

Climate change and wind energy 

Recent studies have indicated that 

climate change impacts most socioeconomic 

activities. In the global 

warming scenario, wind speed can 

also change. There is as yet, however, 

no systematic study of the effect of 

climate change on wind-energy 

resources in China. 

As wind energy develops, more and 

more wind farms will be built. Considering 

that the lifetime of a wind farm 

is 15-20 years, the climate-change 

issue must be considered at the feasibility 

study stage. Moreover, fossilfuel 

consumption will be reduced and 

will thus slow down the rate of climate 

warming. 

The CMA plans to conduct research 

to assess the relationship between climate 

change and wind energy. 

Wind-energy prediction 

Wind-energy prediction is an effective 

way of providing wind-farm production 

information for the grid-control of 

electricity. Some countries have 

already set up a system to provide a 

prediction service for wind farms. The 

CMA also has a plan to construct a 

prediction system deriving from the 

existing weather forecast system and 

high-resolution model. 

Assessing meteorological 

disasters 

Extreme weather conditions are a 

danger for the safety of wind-farm 

operations. For instance, concerning 

the -turbines, a typhoon can easily 

destroy them; iced blades can result 

in their underperformance; and 

extremely cold temperatures can 

cause them to shut down. An 

assessment of meteorological disasters 

is therefore important for establishing 

and operating a wind farm and 

the CMA is planning work in this 

field. 

References 

http://www.cppcc.gov.cn/rmzxb/20060117 

0078.htm 

PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA, 2005: The 

Renewable Energy Law. 

EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION 

(EWEA), GREENPEACE and CHINESE 

RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRIES ASSOCIA- 

TION (CREIA). 2004: Wind Force 12. 

China Environmental Science Press, 

Beijing. 

EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION 

(EWEA), 2005: Executive Summary. 

Wind Energy—the Fact. 

SHI, P.-F., 2005: The development and 

statistics of wind energy market in 2004 

in China. China Wind Energy, No.1, 6. 

NDRC, 2005: Mid- and Long-term 

Development Plan for Wind Power 

Development. 

XUE HENG, ZHU RUIZHAO, YANG ZHENBIN, 

YUAN CHUNHONG, 2002: Assessment of 

wind energy reserves in China. Acta 

Energiae Sloaris Sinica, 22(2), 167-170. 

YANG ZHENBIN, XUE HENG, WANG MAOXIN 

and YUAN CHUNHONG, 2003: The synthetic 

utilization of remote sensing GIS 

and numerical modeling in assessment 

of wind energy resource. Acta Energiae 

Sloaris Sinica, 24(4), 536-539. 

YU WEI, R. BENOIT, C. GIRARD, A. GLAZER, 

D. LEMARQUIS, J.R. SALMON and J.-P. 

PINARD. 2005. Wind Energy Simulation 

Toolkit: A wind mapping system for 

used by wind energy industry. 

http://www.anemoscope.ca/References/WEST_WindEngineering 

July2005. pdf 

TREON ,I. and E.L.PETERSEN, 1989: European 

Wind Atlas. Published by Risø, 

National Laboratory, Poskilde, Denmark, 

ISBN 87-550-1482-8. 

YU WUMING. 2005. Damage and Concerns 

From Typhoon Dujuan, Annual Report of 

Chinese Society for Electrical Engineering 

2004 Annual Meeting, 896-900. 

107

108 

Offshore 

industry: 

ocean 

information 

for safety 

Introduction 

By Johannes Guddal* 

Design of safe and economic offshore 

structures (construction and 

ships) has become an offshore industry 

requirement. Knowledge of wave 

information, in particular extreme 

events and related wave-structure 

interactions, is a requisite. A stochastic 

analysis of the long-term 

time-series of wave parameters, such 

as significant wave height, is typically 

used to plan engineering applications; 

and nowcast and forecast information 

is applied for operations at sea. 

Nowadays, this kind of approach is 

insufficient, not only because of the 

continuous expansion of offshore 

industry to deeper waters that creates 

new challenges to the ocean 

research community, but also 

because of the increase in extreme 

events which exceed wave-design 

criteria. Dedicated methods and 

numerical modelling are required in 

order to better characterize the wave 

kinematics and dynamics and their 

effects on structures. 

Mitigating extreme conditions 

at sea 

Offshore structures operate typically 

in fixed locations and are exposed to 

maritime multi-hazards. Consequently, 

a well-developed plan of 

action, based on design preparedness 

and operations planning, is used 

* Former co-president, WMO/IOC Joint 

Commission for Oceanography and Marine 

Meteorology. Member, MetOcean 

Committee of the International Association 

of Oil and Gas Producers Figure 1 — The Ekofisk field in the central North Sea 

by the industry in order to mitigate, 

as far as possible, accidents and 

damage occurring from extreme 

events. 

Design preparedness 

Location and exposure 

When a potential oil- or gasexploration 

position has been identified, 

preparation of the design criteria 

starts. Environmental loads 

are the basis for the offshore platform 

design that is supported by 

meteorological and oceanographic 

climatological datasets. 

Wave data (measurements and 

numerical modelling) 

In the last two decades, oil companies 

have collected a large amount 

of wave data in different parts of 

the world for their own use. Even 

though long-time datasets exist 

worldwide, there is still a need to 

make use of both measurements 

and model data (quantifying their 

uncertainties) for some places 

where measured data series are 

too short or non-existent. 

Recently, these series have been

complemented by satellite data, 

which supplement in situ measurements. 

Extrapolation to extremes 

Generally, offshore structures are 

designed for a specific place and 

for the 100-year wave (ultimate 

limit state (ULS)) that correspond to 

the probability of failure of 

1/(365 days x 100 years x 8 interval 

of 3 hours in a day) in a random 

three-hour sea state. Statistical 

methods are used to estimate the 

100-year wave value. 

Operations planning 

Long lead time 

Major offshore operations, such as 

the towing and deployment of large 

constructions, are scheduled for 

days with favourable weather and 

sea-state conditions. According to 

these statistics, preliminary timing 

is set for the operation and the 

logistic preparations are organized 

accordingly. 

Short lead time 

Major sensitive operations like towing, 

pipe-laying and construction 

deployments are supported by 

nowcast and forecast services 

specifying sea-state and weather 

progress. 

Nowcast/forecast 

Many operations are safeguarded 

by on-site measuring devices, such 

Handbook of Offshore Forecasting 

Services, prepared by the Offshore 

Weather Panel. WMO Marine 

Meteorology and Related 

Oceanographic Activities Report 

No. 36 (1998) 

Amendments 

QA/QC 

Modelling 

Observing 

Science 

History 

METOCEAN PART 

IN OFFSHORE SAFETY 

Based on 

real or 

simulated 

time series 

under 

developing 

science 

and tools 

Model and 

monitoring 

combinations 

for high 

regulativity. 

Good in 

benign 

W/sea state. 

Providers 

complete, 

mainly on 

price 

Extrapolated 

from benign 

wx/sea state 

thinking. 

Proven unsatisfactory. 

WILL 

IMPROVE 

learn from 

EXWW! 

Design Planning Operation Marginalities 

Areas with maximum wind speed 

during storm of 1 January 1995, 00–18 UTC 

Draupner 

Is the Draupner wave the 

result of two wave trains from 

slightly diffferent directions? 

Draupner wave at 1 January 1995 15:20 

Crest hight: 18.5 m 

Figure 2 — A concept diagram with emphasis on managing “marginalities”: the design and 

operational “modes” will be supplemented with an additional mode for handling marginal 

situations. An example of a marginal incident is given in the lower right box of the first block 

of the figure, while the second block of the figure points to one out of a variety of physical 

causes for outstanding (singular) waves. 

109

110 

Suspected 

Wave events 

Historical 

Records 

(proof of concept) 

The Case 

Early 

Lookout 

as wave spectral monitoring, to 

oversee critical wave loads. 

Post-damage analysis 

Damage does occur, even with the 

most advanced safety systems, and 

it is mandatory to analyse “real 

environmental conditions” in hindsight 

so that better precautions 

may be taken in the future. Repair 

actions or underwater inspections 

may also be decided on the basis of 

estimated sea loads during an 

extreme event. 

Revisions of current design and 

operational procedures and 

updates of warning criteria 

Ekofisk/Vallhall eXtreme Wave Warning 

Ocean wave extremes and 

Offshore operational impacts 

The offshore industry has been 

reviewing its design criteria and its 

Company 

response 

Initial safety 

Support system EXWW 

A matured and certified anno 2004 EVXWW 

system after 12 years development 

Improved 

monitoring 

Interactive 

On-site crew and 

Wave experts 

Better 

Forecast 

model 

mechanisms for disaster preparedness. 

New constructions should be 

designed according to the 10 000year 

wave (accidental limit state 

(ALS)). Advanced hindcast techniques 

for the provision of longterm 

time-series are under development 

and the influence of freak 

waves on global and local loads 

have been discussed. 

Wave expertise 

Regulations 

Monitoring 

tools 

Post incident 

Analyses % 

Delivery 

feedbacks 

On board 

interactions 

Figure 3 — Learning from the Ekofisk Extreme Wave Warning (EXWW) system. EXWW 

developed from the occurrence of a major marginal incident and is now a composition of 

various elements, all in a mutual understanding between offshore decision-makers and 

forecast providers. 

All safety-related services for the 

industry require the combination of 

human expertise and advanced 

numerical modelling. Human expertise 

is required due to the selection 

of the complementary sea-state 

monitoring technology, whether in 

situ or by remote-sensing. Also, in 

the event of damage or accidents, a 

post-analysis will be required involving 

high-level expertise. 

Coherence in design and 

operation 

The requirement of the offshore 

industry to provide sea-state information 

constitutes a great challenge 

to service providers, both in 

terms of serving designers’ needs 

and in terms of serving operations. 

It may be instructive to see the 

commonalities of the two modes of 

operation. 

When marine construction is 

designed and subsequently put into 

operation, there should be a complementary 

link between how meteorological 

and oceanographic data have 

been utilized; at the design stage, 

later in regular forecasting, and at 

the time of the eventual damage 

assessment. This is not always the 

case, since there are different and 

competing providers; and tools and 

science used in the applications 

change over time. The global baselines 

are the WMO wave database 

applied in traditional marine design; 

and the WMO contribution to the 

International Maritime Organization’s 

programme, the Global Maritime 

Distress and Safety System 

(GMDSS). 

The dedicated, safety-related services, 

extending from these baselines, 

require constant revision of the 

system, close communication with 

operation decision-makers, and a 

nucleus of scientific experts on marginal 

sea-state characteristics. 

The offshore industry has been 

advised to fill some gaps in the present-day 

delivery of safety-related 

services to their operations. These 

gaps are;

• Need for better understanding of the 

“physics of extremes” 

• The feasibility/sustainability of in situ 

and remote-sensing monitoring 

systems 

• Modes of interactions between decision-makers 

and warning providers 

• Needs for revision of existing and 

multiple operational thresholds 

Geographical variations in basic 

estimates 

Deep-sea emerging issues 

Integrating environmental protection 

systems (i.e. with oil spill 

accidents). 

Role of the WMO/IOC Joint 

Commission for Oceanography and 

Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) 

JCOMM’s Members in 123 countries 

hold the technical, scientific, 

and operational expertise that is necessary 

for serving the offshore 

industry. JCOMM coordinates inter- 

Member functions, such as oceanobservation 

programmes, data management 

and exchange, service 

developments and capacity-building. 

Already at this early stage in 

JCOMM operations, comprehensive 

data- and modelling-expertise 

resources are available for the international 

community. A two-way 

cooperation and communication with 

industry was already established in 

the 1990s, and will be enhanced in 

the years to come. 

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112 

Marine 

applications 

for sustainable 

development 

in the western 

Indian Ocean* 

The project summarized 

The Western Indian Ocean Marine 

Applications Project (WIOMAP) aims 

at contributing to the sustainable management 

and optimum exploitation of 

marine and land resources through 

more efficient short-, medium- and 

long-term planning. This will be 

achieved through improved ocean predictions 

and weather and climate forecasts, 

based on the enhancement of 

coastal and open-ocean observing 

systems. It will focus on capacitybuilding 

of national institutions to 

enable them to take advantage of 

modern technology in ocean monitor- 

* A contribution from the WMO Secretariat 

ing and new developments in ocean 

modelling. 

WIOMAP will ensure that ocean 

observations in the western Indian 

Ocean, in support of the Global Ocean 

Observing System and the Global Climate 

Observing System, are sustained 

and utilized for research and 

operational applications. The products 

generated by Specialized Regional 

Marine Application Centres and disseminated 

through an enhanced communication 

system will contribute 

substantially to improve the welfare of 

populations in the region in terms of 

poverty alleviation and food security. 

Background 

Countries of the western Indian 

Ocean (WIO) region are mostly developing 

countries, where the main concerns 

are food and housing security. 

The potential exists to increase the 

exploitation of marine resources in a 

sustainable manner. Among these are 

fisheries, ocean energy, mineral 

resources and coastal tourism. As the 

population increases and the shortage 

of land for cultivation becomes more 

acute, marine resources will be 

increasingly used as a food supply. 

WIO countries have additional responsibilities 

with the adoption of the 

United Nation Convention on the Law 

of the Sea (UNCLOS), which obliges 

coastal and island States to protect 

and manage their marine resources 

within their 320-km economic zones. 

Ocean circulation and coastal 

processes in the region are unique. In 

the northern part, there is an annual 

reversal of wind direction and ocean 

current. The Somali current off Somalia, 

which develops during the northern 

hemisphere summer, regulates 

the Asian subcontinent climate and, 

through upwelling, enhances living 

marine resources. The Agulhas cur- 

WIOMAP 

Participants 

Islands and coastal countries of 

the western Indian Ocean (WIO) 

region: Comoros, Madagascar, 

Mauritius, Réunion (France), 

Kenya, Mozambique, Somalia, 

South Africa and the United 

Republic of Tanzania. 

Implementing agencies 

National Meteorological 

Services, selected universities 

and oceanographic institutions 

of participating countries. 

Executing agencies 

WMO and the 

Intergovernmental 

Oceanographic Commission 

(IOC) of UNESCO 

Status 

The WIOMAP project proposal 

has been submitted to funding 

agencies. 

rent off south-eastern South Africa, is 

an important feature of the ocean circulation. 

The Mascarenes Plateau 

between Mauritius and Seychelles is 

unique. It is the only continental shelf 

in the world which is detached from 

the mainland and it influences significantly 

ocean processes in the region. 

For these reasons, marine scientists 

consider the region as a natural laboratory 

for research purposes. 

The tropical region of the WIO lies in 

the tropical cyclone belt, which 

derives its energy from the ocean. On 

average, 10 devastating tropical 

cyclones affect the area from 5–25°S, 

40–80°E each year, mainly from

December to March. These weather 

systems inevitably cause loss of life 

and damage to coastal property, 

potentially crippling the economy of 

the countries. Flooding in Madagascar, 

Mozambique, South Africa and 

Zimbabwe, as a result of cyclones 

Connie, Eline, Gloria and Hudah, from 

January to April 2000, caused an estimated 

1.17 billion euros in property 

and infrastructure losses and more 

than 1 000 deaths. This example provides 

an illustration of the vulnerability 

of WIO countries to severe weather. 

By their very nature, tropical cyclones 

do not recognize any geographical 

boundaries. Hence, countries should 

establish, on a regional basis, the necessary 

infrastructure and human 

resources to meet the growing 

demand for marine data and services 

from a wide spectrum of users in an 

efficient and cost-effective fashion. 

Project objectives 

The overall development objective of 

the project is to contribute to the 

conservation and sustainable use of 

marine resources in the region and 

to foster environmental protection 

and socio-economic development 

through improved application of 

marine data and products. Improved 

understanding of biophysical 

processes will enable long-term 

development objectives to be met. 

By the end of the project, it is 

expected that the WIO region will 

acquire sufficient capability to 

enable regional modelling and participation 

with more advanced marine 

institutions. Additional marine data, 

both at the surface and subsurface, 

will be available in real-time as valuable 

input to predictive models to 

improve the analysis of tropical 

cyclones, for example, and the 

effective and efficient exploitation of 

regional marine resources. 

Through specialized courses and 

workshops, the National Meteorological 

Services (NMSs) and other 

relevant institutions within the 

region will acquire improved professional 

capabilities. 

Regional strategy 

The Western 

Indian Ocean 

Marine Applications 

Project aims 

to exploit marine 

resources for 

fisheries and 

tourism in a 

sustainable 

manner. (Photo: 

Blue Ventures) 

The value of regional cooperation 

through sharing and co-sponsoring 

sophisticated equipment and the 

establishment of regional centres in 

support of marine meteorological 

and oceanographic services has 

long been recognized. A first 

attempt was made in the Gulf 

region with the cooperative development 

of a Regional Marine Meteorology 

Project in the early 1980s, 

involving all the seven countries of 

the region. Further to the successful 

development of the South-East 

Asian subregional project (South- 

East Asian Centre for Atmospheric 

and Marine Prediction (SEACAMP), 

the former WMO Commission for 

Marine Meteorology (11th session, 

Lisbon, Portugal, April 1993) recommended 

that studies be undertaken 

on the possibility of developing similar 

projects in other geographical 

areas, initially in East and West 

Africa. 

A First WMO/Intergovernmental 

Oceanographic Commission (IOC- 

UNESCO) Implementation Planning 

Meeting for a Western Indian Ocean 

Marine Applications Project 

(WIOMAP) was held in Mauritius in 

May 1997 with the participation of 

National Meteorological Services and 

oceanographic institutions in the 

region. The main conclusions were 

the need for: 

A regional project as a contribution 

to the Global Ocean Observing 

System (GOOS), which was called 

for by Agenda 21 of the United 

Nations Conference on Environment 

and Development (UNCED, 

Rio de Janeiro, 1992), to enhance 

the provision of marine services 

for the benefit of a diversity of 

national, regional and global users; 

and 

Development of a Specialized 

Marine Modelling and Product 

Preparation Centre, with various 

Subregional Marine Centres for the 

preparation and distribution of 

marine products. 

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114 

Institutional framework 

All countries in the western Indian 

Ocean currently have NMSs which provide 

weather and sea forecasts for the 

general public and marine communities, 

as well as advisories and services 

in various socio-economic sectors, 

including coastal and marine resources, 

agriculture, water resources, health, 

energy, transport and industry. Kenya, 

Mauritius, Réunion and South Africa 

have established Port Meteorological 

Offices to provide dedicated services 

to shipping. 

Oceanographic activities, though scattered 

through various institutions, are 

being coordinated at national level 

through National Oceanographic Committees. 

Mauritius and South Africa 

have established National GOOS 

Coordination Committees. 

Capacity-building, with emphasis on a 

postgraduate course and short training 

courses, will be one of the major components 

of the project proposal. Wellestablished 

training institutions offer 

courses in different fields of meteorology 

and oceanography. These could 

be further strengthened to play a 

major role in the implementation of 

the training component of WIOMAP. 

The establishment of specialized 

regional modelling and product preparation 

centres has been proposed in various 

forums to optimize human and 

infrastructural resources. Several 

meteorological and oceanographic institutions 

in the region have the capability 

to host such centres. They will be 

upgraded and provided with external 

assistance to reach the appropriate level 

in order to take up this responsibility. 

Problems to be addressed 

The Indian Ocean, in particular the 

western part, is poorly sampled. It is 

WIOMAP and the Global Ocean 

Observing System 

WIOMAP was discussed in depth 

at the first conference of the 

Indian Ocean Global Ocean 

Observing System (IOGOOS-I, 

Mauritius, November 2002) and 

valuable feedback obtained to 

improve the proposals. 

WIOMAP will also contribute to 

the activities of the other GOOS 

alliances in the region: GOOS 

Africa, Western Australia GOOS 

(WAGOOS) and South-East Asia 

GOOS (SEAGOOS) in enhancing 

ocean observations and improving 

ocean services in the Indian 

Ocean. 

Support for its development was 

further reiterated during the 

second conference of IOGOOS 

(IOGOOS-II, Sri Lanka, April 

2004). 

now widely recognized that the Pacific, 

Atlantic and Indian Oceans are linked by 

teleconnections and any abnormal 

weather and climate events in one of 

them affect the other two. Efforts to 

build up a comprehensive ocean observation 

network have up to now concentrated 

on the Pacific and Atlantic 

Oceans. Various forums have underscored 

the importance of shifting the 

effort to the Indian Ocean to complete 

the global network and thus obtain a 

global picture of atmospheric and 

ocean general circulation. This is essential 

to understand weather and climate 

variability and trends on different timescales 

at the local, regional and global 

levels. This is a prerequisite to improve 

weather and climate forecast. 

With global warming, changes in 

atmospheric and oceanographic 

parameters are expected to vary 

from region to region. A close and 

long-term time-scale monitoring of 

the WIO will be required to identify 

regional changes as soon as they 

occur so that proactive measures 

may be taken to address the socioeconomic 

issues related to climate 

change and sea-level rise. 

The availability of a long-term series 

of meteorological and oceanographic 

data and products will address, in 

particular, the following issues: 

More efficient exploration and 

exploitation and sounder management 

of the abundant WIO marine 

resources, through detailed knowledge 

of the ocean such as seasurface 

and subsurface temperature 

distribution and more reliable 

and timely weather forecasts; 

Coastal erosion and marine pollution 

monitoring through more 

accurate and timely prediction of 

waves, storm surges and tidal 

conditions; 

Better level of preparedness, 

effectiveness and efficiency of 

early warning systems in case of 

natural disasters such as cyclones, 

floods, droughts and heavy seas; 

Better output from ocean and general 

circulation models for predictive 

purposes; 

More in-depth knowledge of the 

relatively recent Indian Ocean 

dipole concept. This is a strong 

ocean-atmosphere coupled system 

that is linked to the El Niño- 

Southern Oscillation phenomenon 

and to monsoon variability. It has 

been found to be strongly tied to 

annual cycles and climate variability, 

especially with respect to 

“short rain” episodes in East 

Africa;

Better assessment of ocean 

renewable sources of energy 

(waves, tides, ocean thermal 

energy conversion optimal exploration 

and exploitation. 

In particular, WIOMAP will address 

the following shortcomings and deficiencies 

in the: 

Level of expertise in marine meteorology 

and oceanography; 

Marine observing network; 

Communication facilities for 

smooth exchange of data and products; 

and 

Regional modelling for generating 

products of practical application. 

Expected outcomes 

By the end of the project, it is 

expected that National Meteorological 

Services and oceanographic institutions 

in the region will have 

acquired: 

Improved professional capabilities 

necessary for the further development 

and provision of marine products 

and information; 

Additional marine data, both at the 

surface and subsurface as valuable 

input to regional and global models 

for the improvement of products; 

An improved modern communication 

system for the collection and 

dissemination of marine data and 

products in a reliable and timely 

manner; 

New regional marine products for 

national adaptation which will be 

used as inputs in various socio-economic 

sectors to enhance efficiency 

and production; and 

As populations 

increase in the 

western Indian 

Ocean region and 

the shortage of 

land for cultivation 

becomes 

more acute, 

marine resources 

will be increasingly 

used as a 

food supply. 

(Photo: FAO/ 

I. De Borhegyi) 

Enhanced capabilities for countries’ 

more active participation in 

national, regional and international 

marine programmes, which 

is essential for their success and 

timely completion. 

It is expected also that the level 

reached by countries and potential 

regional marine centres, in terms of 

equipment and trained manpower, 

will be high enough to ensure selfsustainability. 

Beneficiaries 

At the national level, the main target 

groups and activities to benefit 

directly from the project through 

improved marine information and 

services are: 

Policy- and decision-makers in 

marine environmental management; 

Government institutions and 

organisations involved in maritime 

activities such as environmental 

departments, shipping, 

port authorities, oil companies 

and ship routeing; 

Meteorological Services for 

improved weather forecasts and 

warnings at sea to save life and 

property; 

Institutions involved in regional climate 

forecasting to improve local 

and regional climate forecasts for 

early warning systems—for 

cyclones, drought and flooding—for 

better agricultural and waterresources 

planning and management, 

and hence food security; 

Oceanographic institutions to promote 

the development of operational 

oceanography; 

Oceanographers for research work; 

Coastal development and management 

for optimum exploration and 

exploitation of resources, including 

ocean energy, tourism, sand mining 

and addressing the problem of 

coastal erosion; 

Fisheries management to rationalize 

activities and minimize the depletion 

of stocks; and 

Marine pollution monitoring and protection 

of the marine environment. 

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116 

Making 

climate serve 

the people 

Michael H. Glantz* 

Fire and water are good servants 

but bad masters 

(Aesop, 620–565 BC) 

It is clear to me that Aesop’s quote 

refers indirectly to the climate system, 

whence the water comes. What 

I am implying here is that climate, 

too, can be a good servant but a bad 

master. The reality is that, from an 

anthropocentric perspective, before 

humans inhabited planet Earth, climate 

systems from local to global 

were neutral. 

* Senior Scientist, National Center for 

Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, 

USA 

Again from an anthropocentric perspective, 

with the advent of humans 

and human settlements, climate was 

no longer neutral, in the sense that it 

interacted with human settlements 

and human activities for good and for 

ill. Little was understood in earlier 

times about the climate system and, 

as a result, there was little that people 

could do to affect natural variability 

and change. While some settlements 

prospered using regional climate conditions 

to their advantage, others suffered 

from the apparently harsh 

regional climates. Areas with 

favourable climate conditions (i.e. 

favourable for agriculture and livestock) 

and with adequate streamflow 

originating from distant sources, fared 

well. Their land (and favourable climate) 

may have been coveted by 

neighbouring peoples. From a climate 

perspective, those less fortunate 

areas suffered relatively more frequently 

from the seasonal-to-interannual 

variations of climate, as well as 

from prolonged droughts, recurrent 

floods, frequent fires or frosts, etc. 

If Aesop were alive today, I think that 

he would have added climate to his 

comment above. 

Fire, water and climate are good 

servants but bad masters 

(Glantz, 2005) 

By the end of the 20th century, hundreds 

if not thousands of articles, 

books and reports had been written 

about the importance and value of 

using weather and climate information 

in decision-making processes. Many 

benefits of climate information (or better 

yet, climate knowledge) are obvious: 

improved meteorological forecasts, 

climatological time series (i.e. 

climate history), monitoring of climateand 

weather-related hazards, climateimpact 

assessments and research 

findings, advances in global climate 

This article is drawn from a lecture 

presented by the author to the 

57th session of the WMO 

Executive Council (June, 2005). 

modelling, etc. These are the usual 

kinds of benefits that people point to 

when highlighting the value of climate 

knowledge to a given society or to 

policy-makers whose financial and 

moral support they are seeking. 

Here, however, I want to try to 

address questions about climate as a 

resource in a different way. How 

might we make the climate systems 

from local to global more of a servant 

of the people and less its whimsical 

and unpredictable master? I have the 

view that climate is a natural (and neutral) 

resource, albeit a varying one, surrounded 

by many uncertainties. It merits 

respect and necessitates 

“appropriate” interactions by societies 

that operate in very different ways and 

have different needs from climate. 

This means that climate-societyenvironment 

interactions are often 

location-specific, though generalizations 

can be drawn from case-studies. 

Today there is an amazing amount of 

interest in a wide range of climate and 

climate-related topics. A recent university 

graduate would probably not 

know that, just a decade or two ago, 

climate was not a major concern to 

the media or to policy-makers. As was 

usually the case then, the media 

would report on a climate-related 

issue if it involved death, destruction 

or imminent threat to a society, such 

as a hurricane or typhoon. 

For example, just two decades ago, a 

major drought, widespread food shortage 

and famine developed in several 

countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, 

despite widespread death of humans 

and livestock and destruction of the

environment, the popular media failed 

to recognize drought as one of 

Africa’s “woes.” 

In the 16 January 1984 issue of TIME, 

only two sentences in the entire magazine 

referred to the impacts of drought 

(i.e. climate) in Africa. One can only 

wonder why they could not see that 

drought was one of the country’s 

constraints on development. I do not 

think that such an omission could 

happen today. Earlier, the 1968-1973 

drought was linked to four coups 

d’état in the African Sahel by the mid- 

1970s. 

There are now many examples of how 

various sectors of society (insurance, 

re-insurance, commerce, energy, food 

production, water) have already come 

to realize that climate information 

(including, but not limited to, forecasts) 

can be used for the benefit of an 

individual, a corporation, an economic 

sector or a country. 

Problem climates 

In 1960, Prof. G. Trewartha wrote a 

book entitled The Earth’s Problem Climates 

(University of Wisconsin 

Press). He suggested that several climates 

around the globe are so normal 

as to be unworthy of special attention 

by meteorologists. 

I have some concerns about Trewartha’s 

notion of “problem climates”. 

For example, is such a statement 

still valid today, given what we 

have learned about climate variability 

and change since 1960? Are there 

really areas on the globe that could be 

viewed as “climatically so normal or 

usual that they require little comment?” 

Should we also be asking 

questions about societies’ role in the 

creation of problem climates? In other 

words, from the perspective of climate, 

are there “problem societies”? 

Personally, I believe that all regional 

climates can be considered to be 

problem climates for the inhabitants, 

their activities and for the ecosystems 

on which they depend for their survival 

or livelihood. 

Problem societies 

I suggested earlier that climate is 

neutral, if you remove people from 

the equation. While we tend to focus 

on the “climate problem”, it is 

important to make explicit the fact 

that societies have the potential to 

cause changes in atmospheric 

processes that, in turn, generate 

problems with which societies must 

contend. Humans have used the land 

surface in adverse ways that disrupt 

the expected functioning of the climate 

system. As a result, climate 

regimes can become degraded. 

The level of the Aral Sea has dropped 

over a 40-year period. This situation 

provides a perfect example of what 

I refer to as a problem society. The 

Aral, sandwiched between two Central 

Asian deserts, was the fourth 

largest inland sea in the world. Today, 

it is on the path to extinction. The 

decision to divert large amounts of 

water from Central Asia’s two major 

rivers that flow into the Aral Sea 

changed the water balance that had 

existed between stream inflow to the 

sea and evaporation from the sea’s 

surface. 

An image from space (see next page) 

shows a major duststorm in the 

south-western USA during the 

severe drought of 1976/1977 that 

began along about a 200-mile political 

border. A meteorologist studying 

severe storms examined the image 

and decided to investigate. He asked 

how a duststorm could begin along a 

200-mile straight line. He discovered 

that the reason was that the two 

Recent books illustrating the interest various 

sectors of society have in climate 

American states had different laws 

governing the use of groundwater. 

Ways that society makes climate 

serve the people 

There are many obvious ways that 

people and societies have sought to 

make their local climates “work” to 

ensure their survival on a sustained 

basis, not only for enhancing their 

well-being. The following list contains 

some obvious ways, as well as some 

not-so-obvious ones. 

Capture its elements for productive 

purposes 

Minimize its adverse impacts on 

societies and ecosystems 

Effective use of climate knowledge 

(history, information, forecasts, folk 

wisdom) 

Early warning systems 

Technological innovations 

New techniques 

Research 

Learn from others about coping 

mechanisms 

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118 

Satellite image of major duststorm in the 

south-western USA (1976/1977) 

Concept development (comparative 

advantage, precautionary principle, 

resource-management techniques, 

etc.) 

Learning about the techniques in the 

way that land is used in different 

regions is instructive. For example, 

under some climatic conditions, it is 

necessary to plant crops up and down 

a hillside (vertically), whereas, in other 

places with different climate conditions, 

it is necessary to plant crops 

across the slopes (horizontally) in 

order to terrace the hillside and avoid 

erosion of the soil. 

In the semi-arid High Plains Region of 

Texas (USA), farmers have been 

reported to be running out of water 

throughout each decade of the past 100 

years. Yet, at the proverbial 11th hour, 

farmers have managed to develop a 

new method in water use that helped to 

keep the farms productive. 

The battle between a farmer’s economic 

activities and his contemporary 

climate regime continues. Forecasting 

how the future climate will 

be affected as the global climate 

changes, e.g. as it warms, is problematic: 

will there be new extremes 

to cope with in places where they 

had not occurred before? Will storms 

become more frequent and more 

severe? Meanwhile, populations 

increase in urban areas and along the 

coasts. Water is in increasingly short 

supply and clean water in many 

places is non-existent. 

Decision-making under 

uncertainty 

Decision-makers are constantly 

under pressure to make decisions 

with less-than-perfect information 

about the issues on which they must 

decide. Some decision-makers are 

risk-averse (i.e. conservative; need 

more data before acting). Others are 

risk-takers; they decide with the 

information at hand, weighing the 

cost of no action against the cost of 

an action. 

Still others are risk-makers: they 

make risky decisions that create risk 

for others but not for themselves 

and it is up to others to deal with 

the consequences, which are 

often negative. The risk-making 

decision-makers, however, remain 

safe from potentially adverse impacts. 

One such example would be as follows: 

policy-makers in a country’s 

capital city decide about land use in 

rural areas without seeking any informational 

input from the local stakeholders, 

who have considerable 

knowledge about the characteristics 

of the land and local climate, as well 

as about potential thresholds for, or 

constraints on, its potential uses. 

Riding the variability curve 

Climate is variable on all time-scales, 

from months to millennia. We know 

that. Time-scales of direct interest to 

society are generally in the month-todecade 

range. Climate is variable from 

season to season, year to year and 

decade to decade. If societies can figure 

out in advance how climate will 

vary on these various time-scales, 

decision-makers would be in an 

advantageous position to respond 

with greater effectiveness by preparing 

for, and capitalizing on, those 

probable and foreseeable changes. 

So, without perfect information about 

the future state of the atmosphere (or 

society, for that matter), they resort to 

a reliance on the forecasting of 

change. They also rely to varying 

degrees on the monitoring of 

changes. They may even try to identify 

similar situations outside their 

country’s borders at locations where 

similar climate impacts had occurred 

in order to get a glimpse of possible 

impacts, in the event that no decision 

or action is taken. An example or two 

can be instructive. 

The goal of rangeland managers is to 

keep the stocking rates of the rangefed 

livestock (cattle, sheep, goats, 

camels) in balance with the amount of 

water and vegetative cover available 

as fodder. In such areas, however, the 

rainfall is highly variable from year to 

year and is skewed to dryness (more 

dry episodes than wet ones). The 

challenge is to determine how to 

Deforestation in the Amazon

Landsat satellite imagery (left) and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (right) 

on the Aqua satellite on 12 August 2003 

manage herd size to avoid overgrazing 

the vegetation and excessive trampling 

of the soils. The manager must 

try to forecast and therefore “ride” (or 

better yet “track”) the variability curve 

as close as possible. They must rely 

on the use of both forecasts, as well 

as the “precautionary principle”. 

A second example comes from fisheries 

management. Each season, 

fishermen try to land a large amount 

of commercially valuable species of 

interest to them. But variability in fish 

populations is high from year to year. 

How to manage exploitation in a way 

that produces safe yields of fish while 

protecting the standing stock of fish 

populations, on which the future fish 

productivity and fish catches depend? 

The usual scenario is that an abundance 

of fish attracts additional fishing 

vessels: that scenario ends up with 

too many boats trying to catch a dwindling 

number of fish. 

So, the overriding objective for decisionmakers 

is to track as closely as possible 

the variability curves for productivity 

of climate-sensitive resources. 

Failure to do so results in poor 

resource management and, ultimately, 

environmental degradation. 

The two faces of climate 

Climate has a bright side 

There is a bright (or sunny) side to climate. 

The point here is that the climate 

in most regions has been suitable 

for its local inhabitants. They 

learn how to cope, for the most part, 

with their climate and environmental 

settings (means, modes, extremes 

and even rare events). For some, 

societies learn how to prepare so as 

to prevent or mitigate the worst 

impacts of climate variability. For others, 

they can do little but withstand 

the rare extreme and have to rely on 

cleaning up after the death and 

destruction. I am going out on a 

proverbial tree limb to suggest that, 

in most locations, people are able to 

provide minimal food for their families, 

either by growing it or by trading 

goods for it. 

Today, however, bad news dominates 

the airwaves and newspapers. Bad 

news makes for attractive headlines 

and captures the attention of listeners 

and readers. Good weather is not 

news to the media: when have you 

seen an article that said “No flood 

today” or “No drought today”? Apparently, 

“normal” weather is not newsworthy. 

Even to governments, good 

weather is not really news. Governments 

are more interested in climate 

conditions that have some sort of 

adverse impact, because they have 

the responsibility to protect their citizens 

from the worst impacts of natural 

hazards. 

Climate also has a dark side 

People are more fascinated by the 

“dark side” of climate, its extremes 

and the adversities that accompany 

them. For example, societies measure 

the importance of tropical storms 

according to their characteristics (e.g. 

high wind speed) as well as their 

impacts on societies (number of 

deaths; amount of destruction). 

As noted earlier and often, climate 

varies on all time-scales and the 

causes of those variations are not yet 

well known. It is especially difficult to 

forecast many of those changes and 

variations with great reliability. Thus, 

if only one word could be used in 

relation to the climate system, 

I would choose the word “uncertainty.” 

Historical records, forecasts, 

projections, modelling output, climate 

knowledge and atmospheric 

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120 

measurements are all subject to 

uncertainties. 

Making matters more difficult when it 

comes to understanding the behaviour 

of present-day and past climate is 

the occurrence of climate change over 

the next several decades. 

Climate scientists need to make a 

shift in their thinking 

Before the onset of the Industrial Revolution 

that began in the mid-1700s, 

human activities affected only local 

areas as a result of pollution from 

fires, the burning of coal and from 

land clearing. Humanity’s ability to 

influence climate on the global scale 

was not feasible. 

With the continuously growing emissions 

of greenhouse gases (especially 

carbon dioxide) since the beginning of 

the Industrial Revolution and with the 

increasing dependence on nitrogenbased 

fertilizers, as well as the development 

of chlorofluorocarbons (each 

of them being a radiatively active 

greenhouse gas), in addition to clearing 

large swaths of land (e.g. tropical 

rainforests), human activities today 

clearly have the wherewithal to alter 

the chemistry (and therefore temperature) 

of the global atmosphere. 

Although there is some debate led by 

a relatively small number of climatechange 

sceptics about the ability of 

humans to alter the global climate, it 

is clearly foreseeable that humans can 

influence global climate. No one questions 

the fact that global climate has 

warmed in the past century. The controversy 

has been about whether it 

was human-induced, natural or a combination 

of the two. 

Thus, the climate system, which is 

usually described only by its physical 

and biological components (sea ice, 

glaciers, sun, oceans, forests, soils, 

etc.) must now be described to 

include societal factors. Humans are 

now part of the global climate system 

and graphics that are used by scientists 

to represent that system must 

show humans as a component 

together with sea ice, forests, etc. 

How scientists see climate: through 

its statistics 

The following aspects of climate are 

of concern to the atmospheric science 

community: 

Climatology 

Climate variability 

– Seasonal-to-interannual 

Climate fluctuations 

– Decadal scale 

Climate change 

– Deep climate change 

Extreme meteorological events 

Seasonality 

People for the most part are aware of 

the climate of the location in which 

they live, at least in a passive way. 

They are also aware, to varying 

degrees, of the climate conditions in 

other locations as well. Many people 

Modelling the climate 

system—the human 

component is missing! 

(from: Climate Change 

Impacts on the United 

States: The Potential 

Consequences of 

Climate Variability and 

Change, US Global 

Change Research 

Program, 2000) 

precipitation 

evaporation 

soil 

moisture 

incoming solar 

energy 

stratus clouds 

also know about tourist locations that 

have relatively ideal climates and environments 

(at least ideal compared to 

where they live). They have learned 

how to live with their climate. For 

many people, climate is neither the 

best for their needs nor the worst: it is 

tolerable. 

There is a general belief among scientists 

that the public does not really 

understand (some suggest that they 

never will) the proper use of probability 

statements as they relate to 

weather and climate conditions. Nevertheless, 

one cannot deny that the 

public is quite aware of the many risks 

(chances) that they face and take each 

day. The public is not ignorant of what 

it means to take a risk. 

The different socio-economic sectors 

are primarily interested in one aspect 

or another of climate. Farmers, for 

example, are interested in seasonal 

changes in rainfall and temperature 

for reasons related to crop production—when 

to plant, fertilize, harvest. 

Water-resource managers may focus 

on annual and interannual time-scales 

(variability and fluctuation). Many individuals, 

companies, governments and 

outgoing heat 

energy 

transition from 

solid to vapour 

evaporative 

and heat energy 

exchanges 

snow 

runoff 

LAND 

SURFACE 

PROCESSES 

(snow cover, vegetation, 

reflectivity, topography 

and land use) 

realistic 

geography 

sea ice 

OCEAN 

currents, 

temperature 

and salinity 

ocean 

bottom 

topography 

cumulus 

clouds 

precipitation and 

evaporation 

winds 

ocean 

model 

layers 

cirrus 

clouds 

heat and salinity 

exchange 

ATMOSPHERE 

stratus 

clouds 

ocean 

GCM 

vertical 

overturning 

atmospheric model layers

egions at risk have become increasingly 

concerned about “deep climate 

change”, “a major change”. 

A research community focused on 

“deep climate change” has developed 

that is focused almost exclusively 

on climate-change issues. 

Everyone undertaking research or formulating 

policies related to coping 

with atmospheric processes— 

weather, climate and “deep” climate 

change—is concerned about extreme 

meteorological events, but each is 

concerned for different reasons. 

Those concerned with weather want 

to improve forecasting or response 

on short notice. Those interested in 

seasonal climate are concerned about 

the frequency and intensity in the 

occurrence of extremes. Those concerned 

about climate change want to 

know if and where there will be more 

extreme events and whether they will 

be more intense (e.g. an increase in 

the number of superstorms of one 

type or another). 

Seasonality is an aspect of variability 

that deserves special consideration. 

All flora and fauna, as well as most 

people and their socio-economic 

activities, are influenced by the 

expected natural flow of the seasons. 

Any disruption to that natural flow—a 

longer winter, a short or drier growing 

season, an earlier frost, a poor harvest 

at the end of the hunger season—can 

cause great harm to those 

dependent on an uninterrupted flow 

of the seasons. Two-thirds of the 

inhabitants of the world are dependent 

on the natural flow of the seasons, 

as are most industries. 

How society sees climate: through 

its impacts 

To many individuals, climate by itself 

is not likely to be the most important 

thing on one’s mind in general. 

Though people want to know before 

they go to bed at night what the 

weather might be the following day, 

they often do not change their 

intended behaviour. They want to 

know, but do not necessarily want to 

act on, the forecasts that they hear. 

What they do care about is how the 

climate or weather is likely to influence 

their activities, especially their 

livelihoods, i.e. their budget, as suggested 

in the following list: 

Food 

Agriculture 

Energy 

Health 

Disasters 

Commerce 

Manufacturing 

Trade 

Aid 

For corporate executives working in 

climate-sensitive sectors, their concern 

is about how climate anomalies 

or extremes might affect directly or 

indirectly their financial “bottom line”, 

i.e. profits. 

Obviously, agricultural activities and 

water-resource management are 

greatly affected by weather and climate 

conditions in a given location, 

especially where crops are grown and 

where livestock is raised. Yields can 

be affected, as well as total production. 

The climatology of a region 

determines what can be grown with 

some degree of reliability over the 

long term. For export crops, it is also 

valuable for decision-makers in one 

region to know about the climate conditions 

in regions elsewhere that grow 

competing crops in the international 

marketplace. 

Food production is of great concern to 

governments for domestic consumption 

needs and, in cases of poor production 

years, for import needs. 

Energy demand and supply are 

affected by weather and climate conditions. 

As for public health, numerous 

water- and airborne infectious diseases 

are also influenced by weather 

and climate conditions, as are hydrometeorological 

hazards. 

Weather and climate affect manufacturing 

(production levels and sales), 

trade and aid in a variety of ways that 

are specific to what is being manufactured 

(unavailability of raw materials, 

or inability to sell goods due to anomalous 

weather or climate). They also 

affect the transportation of goods and 

provision of services (airplane scheduling, 

aircraft accidents, road maintenance, 

etc.). Many technology-related 

innovations have been devised to 

bypass the constraints imposed by 

seasonality, such as refrigeration, air 

conditioning, heating, irrigation, transportation, 

personal mobility, glass 

greenhouses, etc. 

What does society do to buffer 

itself from climate? 

Since the beginning of human life on 

Earth, there has been a constant 

conflict between people and the 

elements (e.g. the climate system). 

Societies and individuals have 

developed many evasive actions and 

techniques in attempts to avoid the 

wrath of the natural world. The farmer 

who early on tried to plant corn or 

wheat in winter soon failed and likely 

perished. We have learned how to 

deal with the changes in the seasons. 

We have even found ways to bring the 

seasons to us rather than wait for 

them to occur naturally: we have 

invented ways to generate heat, cold, 

cool, wet, dry conditions thRough 

burning fuels, refrigeration, air 

conditioning, and humidifiers, 

respectively. 

We have come up with concepts that 

allow us to eat produce out of season 

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122 

by trading and transportation. 

Bananas can be sold on the streets of 

Moscow in the dead of winter, 

because they were grown in Ecuador 

and protected from cold temperatures 

during shipment. 

Companies have invented medicines 

that prevent certain diseases in areas 

where those diseases are endemic. 

The fact is that the list of ways that 

societies have learned to buffer themselves 

from the impacts of a varying 

climate is extremely long and, in many 

cases, place-specific (using caves as 

refrigerators, for example). 

There are co-existing, as well as 

conflicting, perceptions of climate 

Three ways that people view climate 

are as a resource, as a hazard, and as 

a constraint. As a resource, people 

look at precipitation amounts and timing, 

seasonality, frost-free periods, the 

length of growing seasons, heating 

degree days, etc. Climate provides 

the necessary amount of precipitation, 

sunlight or cloud cover, temperature 

and so forth, each of which helps to 

make some people view climate as a 

resource. 

Climate as a hazard is the view of climate 

that captures the most attention. 

It is what the media report on 

most frequently. Hollywood films 

often depict climate-related hazards: 

twisters, floods, droughts, fires, hurricanes, 

pest invasions, seasonal outbreaks 

of infectious diseases, etc. 

Climate-related hazards will continue 

to be a major societal concern as well 

as a major societal attractor. 

Climate has been discussed as a constraint 

on economic development 

prospects: too hot, too cold, too wet, 

too dry, too humid, lack of seasonal 

changes for one human activity or 

another. It was once used as a reason 

Headlines from around the world indicating interest in floods and droughts 

in support of colonialism, with northern 

countries trying to get the southern 

countries to be “more productive”. 

In fact, one researcher wrote 

about the “air-conditioning revolution” 

suggesting that, with the 

advent of air-conditioning, pockets of 

temperate-zone (i.e. productive) climate 

could be created in the midst of 

the tropics (so the argument went). 

In sum, societies have, since the first 

settlements, sought to buffer themselves 

from the elements. That has 

been their challenge in the past and 

will continue to be so in the future. 

Climate as a resource 

There have been several highly productive 

regions around the globe 

called “breadbaskets.” Today we recognize 

that the North American Great 

Plains is one of the most important 

breadbaskets for food production, 

domestically as well as for the world. 

Other productive regions can be found 

for different types of agricultural and 

livestock production in most countries: 

wheat and cattle in Argentina and Australia; 

soybeans in southern Brazil; rice 

in Viet Nam, etc. Other regions, however, 

have, at one time or another, 

been considered national or regional 

breadbaskets, only to fail to reach their 

food-production potential, usually 

because of political factors as opposed 

to poor climate conditions. 

Interestingly, what may be a resource 

for one type of activity may not be 

seen as such by others. For example, 

in the San Luis Valley in Colorado, 

USA, some farmers needed more rain 

for their crops late in the growing 

season, while others wanted dry 

sunny weather to ensure a good harvest 

of a different crop. Those wanting 

more moisture for their fields 

(hops for beer production) authorized 

cloud-seeding activities. Those who 

opposed it took up arms and fired on 

the cloud-seeding aircraft. The project 

was halted. This example underscores 

the fact that climate conditions 

alone do not determine whether 

or not climate in a given location can

Weblines and headlines about superstorms 

be called a resource. It is how that climate 

is being “used” by society and 

individuals living within that climate 

regime that determines whether the 

climate is a resource or a constraint 

on economic development prospects. 

This could be called “the climate+ 

factor.” 

Climate as a hazard: El Niño as a 

hazard-spawner 

El Niño (or the El Niño/Southern Oscillation) 

is a relatively recently identified 

natural process of air-sea interaction 

in the tropical Pacific. We have only 

really begun to take this equatorial 

Pacific phenomenon seriously since 

the early 1970s (and most seriously 

after the 1982/1983 El Niño of the 

century). 

The natural hazards community 

advised me some years ago that the 

El Niño phenomenon was not a natural 

hazard. They argued that it was like 

winter; winter just “is”. All this, in 

spite of the fact that El Niño meets 

each of the criteria used to define a 

hazard as laid out by the hazards 

research community. Yet, El Niño 

“spawns” and is associated with climate 

and climate-related hazards 

around the world (droughts, floods, 

frosts, infectious disease outbreaks). 

People fear the hazard aspect of the 

ENSO extremes. 

There is some forecast value associated 

with El Niño, based on historical 

records and timely monitoring across 

the Equator in the Pacific. Some 

regions are clearly affected and the 

geophysical mechanisms can be 

shown to exist without question, 

especially around the Pacific rim. The 

climate and weather anomalies in 

other regions have been linked to El 

Niño events through statistical correlations, 

even though the mechanisms 

may remain unclear. 

Although the forecasting of the onset 

of El Niño events (as well as their 

intensity) remains difficult, once an El 

Niño begins, it will continue through a 

process lasting 12 months or so. 

Knowing an event is in progress 

enables those regions and activities 

likely to be affected by it to use the El 

Niño information to take evasive 

actions when possible. Some countries 

will have more lead time to prepare 

for it than others, however. 

Global warming and the weather 

There is a great deal of speculation 

about how a warmer atmosphere 

might affect the frequency and magnitude 

and even the location of extreme 

events to which we have already 

become accustomed. Today there is 

growing concern that global warming 

will have a major influence on 

extreme events. For many this is not 

just a growing concern. It is an outright 

fear. 

We must ask ourselves how well 

societies are coping with the variations 

in climate today. One would 

have to conclude that, for the most 

part, “not very well”, occasional successes 

notwithstanding. In order to 

prepare for a warmer future, societies 

must improve the ways that they 

cope with today’s extreme and anomalous 

events. If we are not well prepared 

today to identify societal 

strengths and weaknesses in 

response to climate- and weatherrelated 

hazards, how can we expect 

to be better prepared for changes in 

the patterns of anomalies in the 

future? 

In the 1990s, a new category of 

storm seemed to emerge: the superstorm. 

These are what might be 

referred to as blockbuster storms, 

exhibiting record-setting wind speeds 

for tornadoes or tropical storms. Scientists 

increasingly talk about the 

possible increase in the intensity of 

an extreme event, for example, 

superhurricanes, supertyphoons and 

supercyclones. 

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124 

Scientists and societies have always 

been concerned about extreme climate 

and climate-related events. They 

keep track of record-setting events: 

hurricanes, typhoons, tornadoes, ice 

storms, freezes, heat waves, 

droughts severity, etc. 

Initially, the question was raised about 

why this category had emerged in the 

1990s. Was it media hype or are 

these events really deserving of the 

“super” label? This has to be determined 

on a case-by-case basis. 

Global warming is another hazard 

of global concern 

In the personal view of the author, the 

industrialized north produces the 

lion’s share of carbon dioxide. These 

countries now argue that the developing 

countries of the south will be 

come the major producers of this 

greenhouse gas in the future. 

It is the north that saturated the 

atmosphere with greenhouse trace 

gases. I therefore say: “should they 

not take the first steps to clean up the 

atmosphere that they polluted on their 

way to becoming industrialized?” 

Is forecasting getting too much 

attention? 

Meteorologists and climatologists are 

heavily involved in trying to forecast or 

project the future state as well as 

behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere. 

The public for its part is bombarded 

every day and in every way with forecasts 

of weather and climate (via electronic 

and print media). Yet forecasts 

make up only a small part of what 

could be identified much more broadly 

as climate knowledge. Professionally 

produced and transmitted forecasts as 

weather- and climate-related information 

to inform decisions are in constant 

competition with individual and group 

perceptions about the benefits of 

using forecasts, regional climate history 

and folk knowledge held by people 

about a particular climate regime. 

Interestingly, the public has a different 

view of the success rate of forecasts 

from those who produce those forecasts. 

The public is much less aware 

of the nuances as well as the use and 

meaning of probabilistic forecasts for a 

given location (a specific place versus 

a general area). 

Climate and weather forecasts are 

often compared to other environmental 

indicators and beliefs (right or wrong) in 

order to calibrate their correctness. 

Sometimes forecasts reinforce the 

other indicators that the public relies 

on, while at other times they are in conflict 

with the other indicators. 

Concluding thoughts: ways to make 

climate a better servant 

Highlight climate and money 

Highlight climate and money in order to 

create practical awareness among the 

Over 15 

7–15 

3–7 

1–3 

Under 1 

Unknown 

general population, corporations and 

government agencies about how climate 

financially influences their activities, 

livelihoods, and well-being in notso-obvious, 

as well as obvious, ways. 

Capacity-building 

The world’s worst polluters (after New Scientist, 2000 data) 

By building capacity, we can catalyze 

the development of core 

skills and capabilities worldwide 

that, in turn, will help to build a 

government’s, an organization’s or 

an individual’s effectiveness and 

sustainability. 

There is an urgent need for climaterelated 

capacity-building in meteorological 

and hydrological services, in 

climate-sensitive sectors of society 

and among the public. 

Foster the notion of Climate 

Affairs 

Climate Affairs is, in fact, an attempt 

at capacity-building by getting people 

to look at climate-society-environment 

interactions as parts of a holistic 

system. Society can no longer 

afford the luxury of remaining igno-

ant about the climate system and 

its newfound role in it. Governments 

cannot afford to ignore the 

many ways that climate-societyenvironment 

interactions influence 

the well-being of their citizens. The 

challenge, then, is how to educate 

people and policy-makers at the 

highest levels about the ways that 

atmospheric processes influence 

their lives. 

Selling climate 

”Selling” climate knowledge today 

can make selling climate-change 

information tomorrow an easier task. 

The meteorological community and 

its fellow travellers have been very 

successful in the past two decades in 

“wholesaling” the importance of climate 

information, broadly defined. 

Broadcasting to the public that climate 

is important to know about 

seems to have worked. People on the 

street are aware of the global warming 

issue. They are certainly aware of 

extreme events and anomalies such 

as El Niño. “Retailing” to the public, 

including its policy-makers, the value 

of climate knowledge is the hard part. 

Fine-tuning climate knowledge to the 

disparate specific needs of potential 

users, groups, companies, sectors or 

government agencies is, however, 

the hard labour-intensive task that lies 

ahead. 

Turning “what ought to be” into 

“what is” 

With regard to what ought to be the 

value of using climate information 

(or the cost of not using it), it is 

important to note that, in theory, 

there are many uses of such information 

in a constraint-free world. In 

practice, however, various constraints 

arise to restrict the optimal 

beneficial use of climate knowledge. 

We need to identify those constraints 

and work to minimize, if not 

remove, them. 

Revisit lessons learned 

It is quite clear and normal that “lessons 

learned” about how better to 

prepare for, or cope with, potential 

climate-related hazards are identified 

after each disaster. Decades of 

reports with such lessons learned 

about droughts, floods, fires and disease 

exist, but, unfortunately, they 

rest on bookshelves, unused. In 

fact, lessons are often only identified 

but not necessarily learned. It is 

imperative that we take the time to 

revisit past lessons learned, and use 

them when applicable to contemporary 

situations. 

Climate knowledge audit: who is 

using what, and how 

“Climate audit” is a phrase that 

refers to a way to start a process that 

identifies those who are in need of 

climate knowledge or are aware of its 

existence but need guidance on how 

best to use it. In other words, who is 

using what, and how are they using 

it? Climate-related audits in societies 

can help to identify what climate 

information is being used as well as 

what is not being used. Audits can 

help the climate impacts and applications 

communities know where they 

have done a good job and where they 

need to focus their efforts in the 

future. 

Many of us have knowledge about climate. 

We are empowered. It is our 

responsibility to present, as well as 

future, generations to share that 

knowledge. 

Climate knowledge is power. 

Sharing climate knowledge is 

empowering. 

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126 

Deluge in 

Mumbai, 

India 

By U.S. De 1 , G.S. Prakasa Rao 2 , 

D.M. Rase 3 

Introduction 

On 26 July 2005, the skies over Mumbai 

released the heaviest rainfall ever 

recorded at that location: at Santacruz, 

an accumulated total of 944 mm was 

recorded at 03 UTC on 27 July—the 

primary synoptic observation time. 

Previous all-time highest rainfalls 

recorded in 24 hours (available in the 

National Data archives of the India 

Meteorological Department) are for a 

station Amini Divi (11°07’N and 

72°44’E), an offshore island in the Arabian 

Sea, which recorded 1 168 mm 

on 6 May 2004, while Cherrapunji 

(25°15’N and 91°44 E), a hill station in 

the north-east of the country recorded 

1 563 mm on 16 June 1995. The 

Mumbai event of 26/27 July has a 

rather distinct feature. While the rain 

recorded at Santacruz (19°01’N and 

72°51’E) was 944 mm, that recorded 

at Colaba (18°54’N and 72°49’E)—only 

25 km away (Figure 1)—was a mere 

73 mm. It can thus be inferred that 

the phenomenal rain in Mumbai was 

associated with a mesoscale cloud 

system centred over Santacruz. 

The location and the event 

The west coast of India extending 

from about 8°N to about 23°N has 

heavy rainfall spells during the southwest 

monsoon season. The stations 

located on the western ghats (a 

mountainous region with elevation of 

1-1.5 km close to the coast) therefore 

receive copious rain which feeds the 

rivers flowing eastwards across the 

Deccan plateau. 

In July 2005, a spell of heavy rain continued 

until the following week. Heavy 

rains in Maharashtra for a period of 

nearly one week commencing on 

27 July caused dams in Pune, Karad 

and Solapur to overflow. The water 

released from these dams, coupled 

with intermittent rains for 8-10 days 

caused disastrous flooding and associated 

landslides in Maharashtra. The 

worst affected sectors were rail and 

air communications. The international 

airport at Mumbai was closed for 

nearly 30 hours on 27/28 July. Landslides 

and flooding caused more than 

1 000 deaths, half in the Mumbai met- 

1 Visiting lecturer, University of Pune, Department of Environmental Sciences (udayshankar_de@hotmail.com) 

2 Director, India Meteorological Department, Shivajinagar, Pune-411 005, India (prakasarao@hotmail.com) 

3 Scientific Assistant, Central Training Institute, Shivajinagar, Pune-411 005, India (dineshmrase@rediffmail.com) 

Figure 1 — Map of the Mumbai (Bombay) 

area 

ropolitan area. As the floodwaters 

receded, deaths from waterborne diseases 

were also reported from these 

areas. This is a common occurrence in 

megacities after floods (De and Sinha 

Ray, 2000). 

Heavy rainfall events since 1950 are 

shown in Figure 2. During the past 

55 years, either Santacruz or Colaba 

recorded 28 such cases in a single 

day, of which there were only three 

occasions when both stations simultaneously 

received 250 mm (or more) 

per day. In the case of greater rainfall, 

i.e. more than 500 mm a day, 

there were only two such occasions 

(5 July 1974 and 2 July 1984) at 

Colaba. On these two days, Santacruz 

recorded 375.2 mm and 

240.1 mm rainfall, respectively. For 

Colaba, the rainfall on 5 July 1974 

was 575.6 mm, while, for Santacruz, 

on 10 June 1991, the total was 

399 mm—the highest so far.

1000.0 

900.0 

800.0 

700.0 

600.0 

500.0 

400.0 

300.0 

200.0 

100.0 

0.0 

Colaba 

Santa Cruz 

Figure 2 — Rainfall events (in millimetres) exceeding 250 mm per day in Mumbai 

since 1952 

Interestingly, the normal monthly rainfall 

of Colaba is higher than Santacruz 

for June, while Santacruz has a higher 

monthly normal rainfall for July and 

August (see table below). 

Atmospheric circulation 

The synoptic monsoon system has 

been studied by many authors and a 

summary can be found in Das (1998) 

and Rao (1976). The synoptic-scale 

systems associated with the release 

of such heavy precipitation over the 

western coast of India, specially in the 

neighbourhood of Mumbai, are: 

• A monsoon depression travelling 

westward from the Bay of Bengal; 

16 July 1952 

17 July 1952 

19 June 1953 

28 July 1953 

7 Aug. 1954 

16 July 1965 

19 July 1966 

17 June 1970 

23 June 1971 

24 June 1971 

5 July 1971 

31 July 1975 

5 Aug. 1976 

23 Sep. 1981 

19 July 1982 

17 July 1983 

2 July 1984 

17 June 1985 

25 June 1985 

16 June 1990 

15 Aug. 1990 

9 June 1991 

10 June 1991 

23 Sep. 1993 

23 Aug. 1997 

10 Aug. 1998 

13 July 2000 

27 July 2005 

Monthly normal rainfall in millimetres (1961-1990) 

• A mid-tropospheric circulation over 

the Gujarat/Maharashtra coast; 

• An offshore vortex in the lower troposphere 

close to Mumbai in the 

Arabian Sea; 

• An offshore trough in the Arabian 

Sea extending from the Maharashtra 

coast southwards on the sealevel 

chart. 

A combination of these systems also 

occurs, which results in heavy falls. In 

addition, thermodynamic parameters 

and their variation are linked with such 

sharp rainfall events (Dutta and De, 

1999). The synoptic system which 

resulted in the 26/27 July 2005 event 

as given in the All India Weather 

Station June July August September 

Colaba 568.4 703.7 459.4 286.6 

Santacruz 523.1 813.4 529.7 312.3 

Summary (AIWS) is discussed briefly 

below. 

Synoptic situation on 26 July 2005 

(AIWS IMD 2005) 

The axis of the monsoon trough on 

the sea-level chart passes over northwest 

India, centre of a well-marked 

low-pressure area of Orissa and then 

south-eastwards to the north 

Andaman Sea. An offshore trough at 

sea-level passes along the west coast 

of India. 

Synoptic situation on 27 July 2005 

(AIWS IMD 2005) 

The axis of the monsoon trough 

passes through north-west India and 

the centre of the low-pressure area, 

which lies over south-eastern Madhya 

Pradesh and south-eastwards to the 

north Andaman Sea. The offshore 

trough at sea-level along the west 

coast persists. 

Warnings 

Based on the synoptic analysis and 

satellite/radar observations, the 

Regional Meteorological Centre, 

Mumbai, and the National Forecasting 

Centre (Weather Central) issued warnings 

of intermittent rainfall with a few 

heavy falls and a warning of scattered 

heavy rainfall for Maharashtra. The 

local forecast for Mumbai had also 

included warnings of impending very 

heavy rainfall. The Tropical Rainfall 

Measuring Mission satellite images 

for 26 July 2005 for hourly rain rate 

and accumulated rainfall are shown in 

Figure 3 (a) and (b), respectively. 

The event 

Moreover, the enormous rainfall 

(almost the entire normal rainfall of 

July) occurred during high tide and 

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128 

(a) (b) 

Figure 3 — (a) hourly rainfall rate and (b) accumulated rainfall for Mumbai on 26 July 2005 

(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) 

caused huge waterlogging. This led to 

near-total failure of traffic and communication 

lines. The estimated loss to 

Mumbai in terms of industry and commerce 

was about US$ 10 million. 

Studies made in recent years in different 

parts of the world have shown that 

damage costs have increased significantly 

as infrastructure and housing 

have developed in vulnerable areas. 

Conclusion 

Losses from weather- and climaterelated 

disasters since the 1960s have 

increased by a factor of 40 (IPCC, 

1998). This highlights the vulnerability 

of societies to extreme climatic 

events. In the aftermath of this natural 

disaster, the need for sustainable 

urban development is once more 

brought into focus. Urban flooding is a 

major threat to cities and thus urban 

flood management in developing 

countries also requires an evaluation 

of socio-economic issues related to 

land use and urban development 

(Tucci, 2004). While disasters of such 

magnitude are rare, preparedness for 

addressing them at the local, regional 

and national level should be our top 

priority. Studies by De and Prakasa 

Rao (2004) have shown an increasing 

long-term trend in the rainfall in the 

four megacities of India—Delhi, Mumbai, 

Chennai and Kolkata. 

References 

DAS, P.K., 1998: Monsoons. Second 

Edition, National Book Trust. 

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, 2005: 

All India Daily Weather Summary, July 

2005. 

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE 

CHANGE (IPCC), 1998: Workshop on 

adaptation to climate variability and 

change, Summary Report to IPCC, San 

Jose, Costa Rica. 

RAO, Y.P., 1976: Southwest Monsoon. 

meteorological monograph, Synoptic 

Met. No.1/1976 

TUCCI, C.E.M., 2004: Urban flooding; 

WMO Bulletin, 53 (1), 37-40.

The global 

climate 

system in 

2005 

This article is drawn from the WMO Statement 

on the Status of the Global Climate in 2005 

(WMO-No. 998). It is also available on the Web: 

http://www.wmo.int/dwn/tellfree.php 

Global temperatures in 2005 

The analyses made by various leading 

centres indicate that the global mean 

surface temperature in 2005 was 

0.47°C to 0.58°C above the 1961- 

1990 annual average of 14°C. This 

places 2005 as one of the two 

warmest years in the temperature 

record since 1850. (The year 1998 had 

annual surface temperatures averag- 

ing 0.52°C* above the same 30-year 

mean.) The last 10 years, 1996-2005, 

with the exception of 1996 and 2000, 

are the warmest years on record. 

The latest improved analysis of global 

temperature made by the Hadley 

Centre, The Met Office, UK, marks the 

year as the second warmest (0.47°C 

above average). Based on similar 

improved temperature analyses, but 

different methodology, the National 

Climatic Data Center, NOAA, USA, 

ranks 2005 as the warmest year 

(0.52°C above the 1961-1990 annual 

average). The analysis of the Goddard 

Institute of Space Studies, United 

States, also ranks the year as the 

warmest (0.58°C above the 1951-1980 

annual average). All the temperature 

values have uncertainties, which arise 

mainly from gaps in data coverage. 

The sizes of the uncertainties are 

such that the global average temperature 

for 2005 is statistically indistinguishable 

from that of 1998. Based on 

the Hadley Centre analyses, averaged 

separately for both hemispheres, surface 

temperatures in 2005 for the 

northern hemisphere (0.65°C above 

the 1961-1990 average) were the 

warmest and for the southern hemisphere 

(0.28°C above the 1961-1990 

average) were the fifth warmest in 

the instrumental record from 1850 to 

the present. 

Since the beginning of the 20th century, 

the global average surface temperature 

has increased by about 

0.6°C. However, this increase has not 

been continuous and has risen sharply 

since 1976. 

Areas of significant warmth were 

widespread with large areas of Africa, 

Australia, Brazil, the Russian Federa- 

* This value is based on the new temperature analysis of the Hadley Centre, UK, introduced 

for the first time this year. In the earlier temperature analysis, the temperature anomaly 

value for 1998 was +0.54°C. 

WMO annual statements 

on the status of the global 

climate 

WMO has issued these statements 

to provide credible scientific information 

on climate and its 

variability since 1993. They 

complement the periodic assessments 

of the WMO/United 

Nations Environment Programme 

Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change. 

tion, Scandinavia, Canada, China and 

south-western USA showing significantly 

above-average temperatures. 

Much of the North Atlantic and southwest 

Pacific Oceans were also significantly 

warm, as was the Gulf of 

Alaska. Sea-surface temperatures in 

the North Atlantic in 2005 were the 

warmest on record. 

Regional temperature anomalies 

Large portions of the northern hemisphere 

experienced warm conditions 

in 2005 that exceeded 90 per cent of 

the annual temperatures recorded in 

the 1961-1990 period (the 90th 

percentile). Parts of the North Atlantic 

and Indian Oceans had warm temperatures 

exceeding the 98th percentile. 

Only a few small areas in the southern 

hemisphere experienced temperatures 

below the 10th percentile. 

The large-scale climate phenomenon El 

Niño can contribute to above-average 

warmth, as was the case with the 

extremely strong 1997/1998 episode. A 

weak El Niño episode that developed in 

mid-2004 continued until the beginning 

of 2005, but sea-surface temperatures in 

the central and east central equatorial 

Pacific decreased early in the year and 

the episode ended by late February. The 

129

130 

record warmth in 2005 is notable as there 

was little influence of the El Niño event 

on the 2005 global temperatures. 

For Australia, 2005 was the hottest year 

since records commenced in 1910, with 

about 95 per cent of the continent experiencing 

above average mean 

temperatures. The previous annual 

temperature record was set in 1998. 

The nationwide maximum temperature 

anomaly in April was +3.11°C, the 

largest anomaly recorded for any month 

since 1950. During the January-May 

period, the hottest maximum temperatures 

on record exacerbated the 

exceptionally dry conditions. 

In India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, 

extremely harsh heat waves in May 

and June brought maximum temperatures 

of between 45°C and 50°C. The 

maximum temperatures over these 

regions were 5°C to 6°C above the 

long-term average. The delayed southwest 

monsoon rains allowed the heat 

wave to persist into June, claiming at 

least 400 lives in India. 

A severe heat wave gripped southwestern 

USA from early to mid-July, 

setting up numerous temperature 

records. Central Canada experienced 

its warmest and most humid summer 

on record. In 2005, the number of hot 

days in Toronto was more than twice 

its average value. In China, the 2005 

summer seasonal temperature was 

one of the warmest since 1951. 

Severe heat-wave conditions also 

affected much of southern Europe 

and North Africa during July. In Algeria, 

the heat wave in July pushed temperatures 

as high as 50°C and claimed 

more than a dozen lives. 

Extremely cold temperatures affected 

much of the Balkan region during the 

first half of February. In Morocco, a 

cold wave in January dropped temperatures 

to as low as -14°C. In Sevlievo, 

Bulgaria, a 50-year temperature record 

Climate highlights of 2005 

It was one of the two warmest 

years in the temperature record 

since 1850. 

Australia had its hottest year on 

record. 

The ozone hole ranked as the 

third largest ever recorded 

(after 2000 and 2003). 

Prolonged drought in the 

Greater Horn of Africa put 

11 million people at risk from 

starvation. 

The Atlantic hurricane season 

was the most active on record. 

was broken with temperatures dropping 

to as low as -34°C. During 

December, much of Japan, the 

Korean peninsula, China, Mongolia 

and parts of the eastern Russian Federation 

experienced significantly 

colder-than-average temperatures. A 

series of winter storms brought below 

normal temperatures over parts of 

central Europe in December. 

Prolonged drought in some regions 

Long-term drought continued in parts 

of the Greater Horn of Africa, including 

southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, 

south-eastern Ethiopia, north-eastern 

United Republic of Tanzania and Djibouti. 

Both the long (March-June) and 

short (October-December) rainy seasons 

brought below-normal precipitation 

over this region. Over 11 million 

people in Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia 

and Kenya were at risk of starvation 

due to the effects of recent droughts. 

Sporadic rainfall during the 2004/2005 

rainy season caused serious shortfalls 

in the cereal harvest in Zimbabwe, 

Malawi, Angola and Mozambique. At 

least 5 million people in Malawi were 

threatened with hunger arising from 

the worst drought in a decade. 

Multi-month drought conditions also 

affected much of western Europe during 

July, August and September. During 

the period October 2004 to June 

2005, rainfall was less than half the 

normal in areas of the United Kingdom, 

France, Spain and Portugal. 

Neighbouring Spain and Portugal experienced 

the worst drought conditions 

since the late 1940s, with 97 per cent 

of Portugal affected by severe to 

extreme drought. The dry conditions 

also aggravated wildfires in the region. 

The long-term hydrological drought 

continued for southern and eastern 

Australia, but eased slightly in the second 

half of the year. The period January 

to May was exceptionally dry for 

much of Australia, with 44 per 

cent of the continent experiencing 

rainfall in the lowest 10 per cent of 

the recorded totals. During this 

period, Australia received an average 

of only 168 mm of rainfall, the second 

lowest January-May total since 

records commenced in 1900. 

Across the USA, moderate-to-severe 

drought persisted throughout parts of 

the Pacific North-West eastward into 

the northern Rocky Mountains. At the 

end of winter, moderate-to-extreme 

drought affected 72 per cent of the 

Pacific North-West. Below-normal 

rainfall beginning in December 2004 

caused severe drought conditions 

over southern parts of Brazil, where 

corn and soybean crops were 

severely damaged. In Brazil, the 

southernmost state of Rio Grande do 

Sul, which is one of the country’s 

most prolific agricultural states, was 

the worst affected. The state of Amazonas 

experienced the worst drought 

in nearly 60 years, resulting in record

low water levels in the Amazon River. 

In October, drought conditions 

extended further south into neighbouring 

Paraguay. By the end of the 

year, drought affected much of central 

USA from the southern Great Plains 

to the western Great Lakes. Parts of 

Illinois, Arkansas, Oklahoma and 

Texas had the driest March-December 

in the 111-year record. 

Rainfall and flooding 

Global precipitation in 2005 was near 

the 1961-1990 average. Wetter-than-average 

conditions prevailed over 

Central America, eastern parts of 

Europe, India, China and Canada. 

Drier-than-average conditions were 

widespread across eastern Australia, 

Brazil, parts of western Europe, central 

Africa and, in the USA, the Mississippi 

valley and southern Great Plains 

region. 

60°N 

30°N 

EQ 

30°S 

60°S 

Record Atlantic hurricane season 

180° 120°W 60°W 0 60°E 120° 180° 

-400 -300 -200 -100 -50 50 100 200 300 400 

Early indications of a very active Atlantic hurricane season proved accurate. 

The seasonÕs stor ms caused a vast amount of damage, death and destruction. 

Damage estimates have already been put at more than US$ 100 

billion (mostly from Hurricane Katrina) and over 2 800 deaths (mostly from 

Katrina and Stan). 

The season saw 27 named tropical storms, making it the most active 

season on record (the previous record was for 21 named storms in 1933). 

Thirteen became hurricanes—the most to form in a single season. Of 

these, seven were major hurricanes, one short of the 1950 record. Fifteen 

systems made landfall—another record. It is the first hurricane season, 

Atlantic or Pacific, to exhaust the list of names and resort to Greek letters 

for naming. 

Wilma was the most powerful hurricane, in terms of both wind speed and 

air pressure, ever measured in the Atlantic basin. Wilma also broke records 

for fastest development, going from tropical storm status to Category 5 

hurricane in less than 24 hours. 

The last storm, Zeta, developed on 30 December and persisted until 6 

January 2006. The Atlantic hurricane season usually runs from 1 June to 

30 November. 

Annual precipitation anomalies (departures in millimetres from a 1979-2000 base period) for 

2005. Green and yellow indicate areas that received above normal precipitation for the calendar 

year 2005 as a whole while pink and red depict those regions of the world that were drier than 

normal. Areas in white show regions where departures are within +/- 50 mm of the average 

annual value. Precipitation values are obtained by merging rain-gauge observations and satellite-derived 

precipitation estimates. (Source: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, USA) 

The south-west monsoon during June- 

September brought unprecedented 

heavy rain and widespread massive 

flooding to parts of western and southern 

India, affecting more than 20 

million people and resulting in more 

than1800 deaths. On 27 July, Mumbai 

recorded unprecedented heavy rainfall 

of 944 mm in the previous 24 hours, 

which is an all-time 24-hour rainfall 

record for the city. The devastating 

floods in Mumbai caused economic 

losses of about US$ 3.5 million (see 

article on page 126). 

Heavy rainfall continued unabated in 

south-eastern parts of India, during 

the north-east monsoon season of 

October-December. The associated 

devastating floods affected more than 

2 million people with at least 

300 fatalities and caused considerable 

adverse socio-economic impacts. The 

north-east monsoon also produced 

extremely heavy rainfall in parts 

131

132 

Alaska 

Third warmest 

summer 

United States wildfires 

Record area burned (about 

3.5 million hectares); much in 

Alaska (1.8 million hectares) 

North-west United States 

Severe winter drought 

Western United States 

July heatwave; many 

new daily heat records 

South-west United States 

Multiple strong winter 

storms; record rain and snow 

East Pacific hurricane season 

Below average activity; 

15 named storms, 

7 hurricanes 

Weak El Niño transitions to neutral 

ENSO in boreal spring 

Developing La Niña at year’s end 

Canada 

Annual temperature 

anomalies of 2-3 o C 

above average 

North-east United States/ 

South-east Canada 

Major winter storm (January); 

snowiest month on record for Boston 

Central United States 

Expansion of severe 

drought in summer 

Northeast United States 

Record wet October, 

3 separate storm systems; 

also heavy rain and flooding 

in April 

of the Malay Peninsula, Sri Lanka, the 

central Philippines, Thailand and Viet 

Nam. In Thailand, at least 52 deaths 

were attributed to one of the worst 

floods in nearly 30 years. In Viet Nam, 

flooding claimed at least 69 lives and 

caused damage to property. 

During the third week of June, consecutive 

heavy rainstorms in parts of 

Fujian, Guangdong and Guangxi 

provinces in southern China killed at 

least 170 people and affected some 

21 million people. Heavy rainfall 

across southern China continued into 

July, with floods affecting the upper 

reaches of the Huaihe basin. Across 

northern China, heavy rainfall during 

late September to early October produced 

extensive flooding in the Hanjiang 

and the Wei basins, affecting 

about 5.52 million people. 

Persistent heavy rains during the 

period May-August led to destructive 

Arctic sea ice 

Lowest extent on record in September 

Western Europe 

Severe summer 

drought; forest fires 

Eastern Europe 

Severe flooding (May-August) 

Antarctic ozone hole – 24.4 million km 2 at its peak 

in mid-September; above 10-year average 

flooding in eastern Europe, particularly 

in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and 

The former Yugoslav Republic of 

Macedonia, causing damage to property, 

infrastructure and agriculture. 

Torrential rainfall in mid-August also 

flooded sections of Switzerland, Austria 

and southern Germany and the 

Czech Republic. The hardest hit was 

Romania, where 66 flood-related fatalities 

and losses of at least US$1.9 million 

in damage were reported. During 

April and May, floods and landslides 

were widespread in southern parts of 

the Russian Federation, affecting 

more than 4 000 people. In the first 

week of January, a severe winter 

storm affected parts of Sweden and 

neighbouring countries, including Denmark 

and Latvia, causing an economic 

loss of about US$ 2.3 billion for the 

forest industry. 

An onslaught of winter storms in early 

January brought exceptionally heavy 

Northern hemisphere snow cover extent 

Least extensive snow cover on record for August and July; 

thirteenth least extensive snow year (out of 33) 

Annual temperature anomalies 

of 2-4 o Russian Federation 

C above average 

Balkans 

Severe winter weather 

and much below average 

winter temperatures 

Tajikistan, Pakistan, India 

Severe winter storms; snow and 

avalanches (January/February), 

rain/flooding in southern 

Pakistan/Afghanistan (February-March) 

Hurricane Wilma (October) 

Third category 5 storm of the 

season; lowest central pressure 

on record for the Atlantic; 

category 4 at landfall in Mexico, 

Hurricane Emily 

category 3 in Florida 

Category 4, 155 mph 

Hurricane Katrina (August) 

at peak intensity 

Category 5 storm, category 3 at 

landfall, led to over 1 300 deaths 

in Louisiana and Mississippi 

Hurricane Rita (September) 

Second category 5 storm of the season, 

Central America 

made landfall in Texas at category 3 

Heavy rainfall/mudslides (October), 

Hurricane Dennis (July) 

Category 4 at landfall in Cuba 

hundreds of deaths; 

possibly related to Hurricane Stan 

Atlantic hurricane season 

Venezuela, Colombia 

Above average activity 

27 named storms – most on record 

Heavy rainfall and 

14 hurricanes – most on record 

flooding/landslides (February) 7 “major” hurricanes 

Brazil 

Drought, worst in 60 years; 

lowest Amazon flow 

Guyana 

in 30 years 

Heavy rainfall (January–February), 

Georgetown flooded 

Chile 

Heavy snow (May) 

Brazil (south) 

in Andes; worst 

Drought (December-March); 

snowstorm in 30 years 

severe agricultural impacts, 

water shortages 

Western Europe/ 

North Africa 

Heatwave (July) 

Algeria (north) 

Heaviest snowfall 

since 1950 (January) 

Africa ITCZ 

North of mean position in June/July 

contributed to active early Atlantic 

hurricane season 

Angola 

Torrential rain (March); 

severe flooding 

Islamic Republic of 

Heavy rain and flooding in May–July 

Iran (north) 

Indian monsoon rainfall 

Snow (February), worst 

Near normal (98%) for 2005 

accumulations in 

Typhoon Haitang (July) 

Tehran since 1964 

India 

Over 944 mm of 

Typhoon Talim (August) 

India/Pakistan 

rain in 24 hours for 

Landfall at 195 km/h 

Heatwave in May/June; 

Mumbai in July; temperatures near 50°C 

Typhoon Damrey (September) 

major flooding 

Worst typhoon to strike Hainan in 

from monsoon rains 

several decades, about 150 deaths 

India 

Rain and Thailand 

severe 

Worst drought in 7 years (April), 

Greater Horn 

water shortages 

Two February tropical cyclones 

flooding in 

Continued long-term 

Both affected Samoa, Cook Islands 

south-east 

drought 

Olaf: sustained winds of 260 km/h, 

(October-December) 

gusts up to 300 km/h 

Percy: sustained winds of 240 km/h 

Tropical cyclone Ingrid 

Percy 

Sustained winds of 250 km/h; 

only cyclone on record to make 

Olaf 

landfall in 3 Australian states 

as a major cyclone 

Australia 

Dry January-May; dryness 

exacerbated by warmest 

Western Australia 

South-eastern Africa 

year on record nationwide 

Equalled all-time monthly 

more details on Australia 

Continued long-term 

maximum temperature 

drought; worst drought 

for Australia at 

in 10 years in Malawi 

Nyang Station 

(44.8°C, January) 

Australia 

Cold temperatures; 

snow at sea level in Victoria for 

first time in over 50 years 

New Zealand 

Heavy rain (May), flooding 

around the Bay of Plenty 

Significant climatic anomalies and events in 2005. The average global temperature was the second warmest on record. There has been a rise 

in global temperature greater than 0.6°C since 1900. (Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA, USA) 

rain, snow and flooding to the southwestern 

USA. Los Angeles, California, 

experienced its second wettest rainfall 

season on record. In January, a 

major snowstorm affected areas of 

the north-eastern USA with more than 

30 cm of accumulated snow. Record 

rainfall occurred in the north-east USA 

in the autumn of 2005, with three 

storm systems affecting the region. 

Across Canada, 2005 was the wettest 

year on record. In June, three major 

rain events in southern Alberta produced 

the costliest natural disaster in 

the province’s history. Calgary experienced 

its wettest month ever in 

125 years of record. 

Heavy rains in January and February 

caused massive flooding in Guyana’s 

capital, Georgetown, and surrounding 

areas affecting more than 290 000 

people. In February, at least two 

weeks of heavy rainfall in Colombia 

and Venezuela caused river flooding

and landslides that resulted in the 

deaths of at least 80 people. Across 

Costa Rica and Panama, heavy rains 

in January caused flooding that was 

responsible for displacing more than 

35000 people. In October, Hurricane 

Stan caused flooding and mudslides 

in parts of Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras 

and El Salvador, leading to the 

deaths of hundreds of people. 

Cold weather and heavy snowfall 

that began in January continued in 

February in south-west Asia, causing 

avalanches. In parts of Tajikistan, 

two metres of snow accumulated 

in two weeks. During 

February, sections of northern Pakistan 

and neighbouring areas of 

northern India received heavy snowfall, 

described as the worst in two 

decades. In India, at least 230 people 

died as a result of the extreme 

winter weather. In Pakistan's northwest 

province, 360 deaths in February 

were attributed to flooding, 

landslides and avalanches. Heavy 

rains in March also caused flooding 

in parts of western Pakistan and 

Afghanistan, resulting in more than 

200 fatalities. In December, recordbreaking 

heavy snowfall occurred in 

parts of Japan, claiming at least 

80 lives. A record maximum snowfall 

of 58 cm was recorded at Akita 

in December. 

In New Zealand, the Bay of Plenty 

floods in May were most disastrous, 

with unprecedented heavy 

rainfall causing widespread damage 

in parts of Tauranga. It was one of 

the wettest years on record in parts 

of the Bay of Plenty and Hawke’s 

Bay. In the South Pacific, heavy 

rains and high storm surges owing 

to tropical cyclones Olaf and Percy 

impacted the coastal areas of 

Samoa, American Samoa, Cook 

Islands and Manua Islands, causing 

coastal flooding and displacing thousands 

of people. 

Antarctic ozone hole 

In 2005, the size of the Antarctic 

ozone hole was close to 2003 values 

and well above the 1995-2004 average. 

The maximum size of the 

Antarctic ozone hole, 24.4 million 

km 2 , was reached in the third week 

of September. The ozone hole in 2005 

dissipated earlier than usual, in mid- 

November. Based on satellite 

observations, the ozone hole of 2005 

ranks as the third largest ever 

recorded after 2000 and 2003. In 

2005, greater ozone depletion took 

place in the Arctic. During the spring 

of 2005, in large portions of the Arctic 

region, average values of total ozone 

were 30-45 per cent lower than 

comparable values during the early 

1980s. 

Arctic sea ice 

Typically, September is the month 

with the least sea-ice extent in the 

Arctic. By the end of September 

2005, the Arctic sea-ice extent 

dropped far below the average for 

the fourth consecutive year. It was 

about 20 per cent less than the 

1979-2004 average, the lowest 

extent ever observed during the 

satellite record since 1979. Satellite 

information suggests a general 

decline of 8 per cent of Arctic seaice 

extent at the end of September 

over the last 25 years. Warmerthan-average 

Arctic temperatures 

and an early arrival of the sea-ice 

melt season are the main causes 

for the intensification of the sea-ice 

decline in 2005. 

Reference 

ADAMS, R. M., K.J. BRYANT, B.A. MCCARL, 

D.M. LEGLER, J.O'BRIEN, A. SOLOW and 

R. WEIHER, 1995: Value of improved 

long-range weather information. 

Contemporary Economic Policy 

13: 10-19. 

133

134 

Global crop 

production 

review 2005* 

The following is an annual review of 

regional crop production, comparing 

2005 with the previous year. For both 

the northern and southern hemispheres, 

these summaries reflect 

growing-season weather for crops 

that were harvested in the calendar 

year of 2005. For most countries, 

changes in production for 2005 are 

based on crop estimates released by 

the United States Department of Agriculture 

(USDA) in February 2006. 

Wheat and coarse grain: summary 

In 2005, world wheat production 

declined about 2 per cent from 2004. 

Wheat production increased in 

Canada, Mexico, the Islamic Republic 

of Iran, the Russian Federation, 

Ukraine, Kazakhstan, China, Pakistan, 

South Africa and Australia. It declined 

in the USA, countries of the European 

Union, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, 

Turkey, Brazil and Argentina. The 

* Prepared by the Joint Agricultural Weather 

Facility of the US Department of Agriculture 

country-level changes in 2005 wheat 

production from 2004 are shown in 

Figure 1. World coarse-grain production 

was down 5 per cent in 2005. 

Production increased in Hungary, 

Turkey, China, Argentina and South 

Africa. It declined in the USA, Canada, 

most of the European Union, Ukraine, 

the Russian Federation, Mexico, India, 

Brazil and Australia. 

In the USA, wheat production (winter, 

spring and durum) declined 2 per cent 

from 2004. Production totals of hard 

red winter and white winter wheat 

were similar to the previous year, but 

soft red winter wheat production was 

down 19 per cent from 2004. Excessive 

autumn wetness in the delta dramatically 

reduced soft red winter 

wheat planted area. US spring wheat 

production was also down, coming in 

11 per cent below 2004. US corn production 

was down 6 per cent from the 

record 2004 crop. A regional drought 

in the central corn belt lowered corn 

production in northern Illinois and 

adjacent areas. 

In Canada, wheat production rose 

4 per cent in 2005, due to generally 

favourable growing conditions and an 

improvement of long-term drought 

that had plagued the Prairies in previous 

years. Unlike 2004, the first 

autumn freeze arrived later than usual, 

allowing spring crops to mature normally. 

Barley production was down 

about 5 per cent due to lower yield 

and reduced area. Corn production 

rose about 7 per cent, with crop yield 

in Ontario rebounding from 2004. 

The European Union experienced a 

10 per cent decline in wheat production, 

due to contrasting weather 

extremes in eastern and western 

Europe. France, Germany, the United 

Kingdom, Poland, Italy and Spain 

account for about 80 per cent of total 

wheat production. In 2005, drought 

plagued western Europe after a 

favourable growing season in 2004. 

On the Iberian Peninsula, drought 

reached record proportions, significantly 

reducing crop yields and depleting 

reservoirs and irrigation supplies. 

In France, dryness was not as 

extreme, but still significant enough to 

lower wheat production by 7 per cent. 

In contrast, persistent wetness in 

south-eastern Europe flooded fields 

and damaged crops. Wheat production 

declined in Hungary (12 per cent), 

Increase in production 

No change in production 

Decrease in production 

No wheat production or statistics 

Figure 1 — Country-level change in 2005 wheat production from 2004

Bulgaria (14 per cent) and Romania 

(9 per cent), due mostly to yield 

reductions caused by persistent, 

untimely rain. In addition, there were 

significant harvest delays across Hungary 

and the Balkans as a result of 

excessive rain from July into September, 

although drier weather in October 

allowed fieldwork to resume. Farther 

north, modest reductions over the 

previous year’s wheat crop were 

reported in Germany and the United 

Kingdom (6 and 3 per cent, respectively). 

In Poland, ideal winter and 

spring moisture was followed by an 

untimely spell of dry weather in late 

June and early July, causing an 11 per 

cent decline in wheat production. 

Winterkill was confined to north-west 

Poland, where an early February 

freeze occurred in a snow-free area. 

Western drought and eastern flooding 

also caused European Union coarse 

grain production to drop 13 per cent, 

with corn and barley production 

decreasing 10 and 14 per cent, respectively. 

Below-normal summer rainfall 

coupled with periods of extreme heat 

lowered corn production in France by 

19 per cent. Barley production in Spain 

was down 59 per cent in 2005, due to 

severe drought on the Iberian 

Peninsula (Figure 2). Corn production 

declined 10-25 per cent from 2004 

across most European Union countries. 

Corn production in France was 

down 19 per cent. Likewise, barley 

production in most European Union 

countries decreased 6-10 per cent 

from the 2004 crop, although production 

gains were reported in Italy (7 per 

cent) and Denmark (6 per cent). 

The unseasonably wet weather across 

south-eastern Europe reduced the 

region’s coarse grain production. Corn 

production was down 25 per cent in 

Romania, despite nearly identical corn 

acreage to 2004. Likewise, barley production 

decreased 21 per cent owing 

to flooding and persistent wetness. 

Precipitation (mm) 

2000 

1800 

1600 

1400 

1200 

1000 

800 

600 

400 

200 

0 

Normal 

2004–2005 

31 Jul. 

10 Aug. 

20 Aug. 

30 Aug. 

9 Sep. 

19 Sep. 

29 Sep. 

9 Oct. 

19 Oct. 

29 Oct. 

8 Nov. 

18 Nov. 

28 Nov. 

8 Dec. 

18 Dec. 

28 Dec. 

7 Jan. 

17 Jan. 

27 Jan. 

6 Feb. 

16 Feb. 

26 Feb. 

8 Mar. 

18 Mar. 

28 Mar. 

7 Apr. 

17 Apr. 

27 Apr. 

7 May 

17 May 

27 May 

6 June 

16 June 

26 June 

In the Russian Federation, winter 

wheat is grown mostly in the Southern 

District and southern areas of 

the Central and Volga Districts. Most 

of the spring wheat crop is grown 

from the Volga District eastward 

through the Siberia District. The 

combination of favourable growing 

conditions, along with a 15 per cent 

increase in planted area, resulted in 

an 11 per cent increase in winter 

wheat production from 2004. In the 

autumn of 2004, mild weather and 

adequate moisture in October and 

November favoured winter wheat 

establishment and alleviated prior 

concerns about a lack of planting 

moisture in September. 

Unusually mild weather in November 

promoted later-than-usual 

growth of winter wheat in most 

areas. The winter-wheat crop 

entered dormancy one to two 

weeks later than usual. Unseasonably 

mild weather provided 

favourable overwintering conditions 

for the winter-wheat crop during 

most of the winter. Winterkill for 

winter grains was reportedly 8 per 

cent, which is below the 10-year 

average of 13 per cent and below 

the previous winter’s winterkill of 10 

per cent. In March, the coldest 

weather since 1996 maintained an 

unusually late snowpack, delaying 

the greening of winter wheat. 

Figure 2 — 

Cumulative 

precipitation for 

north-western 

Spain 

In April, a warming trend melted the 

late-season snow cover and prompted 

greening in winter wheat, about two 

weeks later than usual. Adequate precipitation 

during key stages of crop 

development benefited crops in May 

and June, and was followed by 

favourable harvest weather. Regarding 

spring wheat, weather conditions 

favoured timely planting in the Urals 

and Siberia Districts, while wet 

weather in the Volga District slowed 

early planting activities. During the 

remainder of the growing season, 

mild weather and above-normal precipitation 

favoured crops in the Urals 

and western areas in Siberia, while 

periodic heat and dryness lowered 

yield prospects in key spring-wheat 

producing areas in the eastern Volga 

District and eastern areas of Siberia. 

These declines in crop prospects 

were not made up in other areas that 

experienced more favourable 

weather, resulting in a 4 per cent 

decline in spring-wheat production 

over the previous year. Coarse grain 

production in Russia declined by 7 per 

cent in 2005, due mainly to a decline 

in area planted with spring barley. 

Spring barley is grown throughout the 

Russian Federation and accounts for 

about 50 per cent of coarse grain production. 

More favourable weather 

resulted in a 26 per cent increase in 

2005 rye production. Although 

135

136 

favourable weather boosted yield 

prospects for corn, production fell 9 

per cent due to an 11 per cent decline 

in planted area. 

In Ukraine, most of the wheat grown 

in the country consists of winter varieties. 

In the autumn of 2004, near- to 

above-normal precipitation in September 

and October provided adequateto-abundant 

moisture for crop emergence 

and establishment, and mild 

autumn weather conditions promoted 

later-than-usual growth. Crops 

entered dormancy during the second 

half of November, about one to two 

weeks later than usual. Unusually mild 

weather during the winter provided 

favourable overwintering conditions 

for crops. Winterkill totalled only 3 per 

cent, the lowest level in 15 years. In 

March, the coldest weather since 

1996 maintained snow cover two to 

three weeks later than usual, keeping 

winter wheat dormant. 

In April, a warming trend prompted 

greening in winter wheat about two 

weeks later than usual. In May, 

unseasonably warm, dry weather prevailed 

over the eastern half of the 

country, causing the winter wheat 

crop, which advanced through the 

highly weather- sensitive heading 

stage of development, to rely on rapidly 

declining subsoil moisture 

reserves to sustain normal crop development. 

May’s dryness in the region 

was followed by above-normal precipitation 

in early June, benefiting the 

crop in the grain-filling stage. 

Farther west, timely rains in May and 

early June favoured winter wheat that 

advanced through the reproductive 

phase of development. In July, 

weather conditions favoured rapid harvest 

activities. Overall, winter wheat 

production increased 8 per cent from 

2004, due mainly to the extremely 

low winterkill that resulted in a higher 

area, as well as similar yield prospects 

to those of the previous year. Coarse 

grain production was down 21 per 

cent from 2004 levels. Production for 

both spring barley and corn production 

declined 19 per cent. For spring barley, 

wet weather at planting and early 

growth stages resulted in shallow root 

systems. Hot, dry weather in May 

negatively impacted the shallowrooted 

crop. Despite favourable 

weather conditions for corn, production 

declines were caused by a 28 per 

cent reduction in planted area from 

the previous year. 

In Kazakhstan, spring grains (mostly 

spring wheat and spring barley) 

account for most of the total grain 

production. Spring barley typically 

accounts for about 80 per cent of 

Kazakhstan’s coarse grain production. 

Furthermore, most of the wheat 

grown in the country is of a spring 

variety. Periods of dry weather helped 

spring grain planting in May, while 

above-normal precipitation in June 

favoured crop emergence and growth. 

Major grain-producing areas in the 

north-central portion of the country 

received near- to above-normal precipitation 

in July, boosting yield 

prospects. As a result, wheat production 

in 2005 increased 11 per cent 

from 2004. Coarse grain production 

remained at last year’s levels, mainly 

due to less area planted to barley. 

In Turkey, winter wheat and barley 

production decreased 3 per cent. In 

the Islamic Republic of Iran, 

favourable growing-season weather 

and a continued expansion in area 

boosted wheat production 4 per cent, 

resulting in another year of record 

wheat production. 

In north-western Africa, a southward 

extension of the drought that gripped 

the Iberian Peninsula resulted in periods 

of untimely dryness. Consequently, 

significant reductions were 

seen in both wheat and barley production. 

In Morocco, hardest hit by the 

drought, wheat production decreased 

45 per cent from 2004. Wheat yields 

in Morocco were down 43 per cent 

from 2004. In Algeria, wheat and barley 

production declined by 42 and 

70 per cent, respectively. The decline 

in Algerian wheat production resulted 

from a 30 per cent decrease in 

planted area and an 18 per cent 

decline in yield. 

In China, wheat production increased 

6 per cent due to favourable weather 

and increased area. Corn production 

increased by 3 per cent in 2005, 

mainly due to a 3 per cent increase in 

planted area. 

In India, a small decrease in area was 

offset by a minor increase in yield, 

resulting in similar winter-wheat production. 

In Pakistan, an increase in 

yields and area coupled with generally 

favourable weather resulted in an 

11 per cent increase in wheat production. 

Indian coarse-grain production 

fell about 2 per cent in 2005, as a latearriving 

monsoon coupled with

untimely dryness in August caused 

yields to drop by 3 per cent. 

In the southern hemisphere, Australian 

wheat production increased 

6 per cent in 2005. In Western Australia, 

warm, showery weather during 

the autumn aided winter-wheat planting 

and establishment. A period of 

dryness during the winter slowed 

growth, but near-normal rainfall and 

generally seasonable temperatures 

during the remainder of the growing 

season provided nearly ideal weather 

for reproductive to filling winter 

wheat. In south-eastern Australia, 

very dry weather during the autumn 

caused extensive planting delays, raising 

concerns that drought would significantly 

reduce winter-wheat production 

in this region. Nevertheless, 

soaking rain spread over south-eastern 

Australia in mid-June and persisted 

throughout the growing season 

greatly improving winter-wheat 

prospects. In northern New South 

Wales and southern Queensland, 

warm, wet weather in the autumn 

helped early winter- wheat development. 

Below-normal precipitation during 

the winter and spring and hot 

weather late in the growing season, 

however, were probably responsible 

for some declines in yield potential. 

In South Africa, wheat production rose 

about 7 per cent due to improved 

yields and favourable harvest weather 

in key production areas of Western 

Cape and Free State. South African 

corn production was up 21 per cent as 

the highest yields in recent memory 

more than offset marginal declines in 

acreage. In Argentina, 2005 corn production 

was about 30 per cent higher 

than the previous year’s droughtreduced 

crop, mainly due to timely 

showers in major production areas of 

Cordoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires. 

In contrast, winter-wheat production 

was down 24 per cent due to a combination 

of problems, including drought, 

a late spring freeze and untimely harvest 

rains in the main growing areas of 

central Argentina. In Brazil, winterwheat 

production fell about 20 per 

cent, due to unusual wetness during 

harvest in Parana. Corn production fell 

more than 15 per cent from 2004, as a 

second year of summer drought 

impacted both the main-season and 

winter-corn crop. 

Oilseed Summary 

World oilseed production rose 2 per 

cent in 2005. Oilseed production 

increased in the USA, Canada, the 

Russian Federation, Ukraine, India, 

Indonesia, Brazil and Argentina, and 

declined in the European Union, and 

China. 

In North America, US soybean production 

was the second highest on 

record, down 1 per cent from 2004. 

Weather conditions were extremely 

favourable across northern growing 

areas, while drought reduced soybean 

yield potential from Texas north-eastward 

to Illinois. In Canada, rapeseed 

(canola) production was up 25 per 

cent from 2004, due to an increase in 

both area and yields boosted by a second 

season of long-term drought 

relief. Soybean production rose 

slightly due to increased yield and 

similar acreage levels to 2004 in 

Ontario. 

In the European Union, oilseed production 

in 2005 was down 2 per cent 

from 2004, due to drier-than-normal 

weather. In particular, Spain’s oilseed 

crop suffered substantially from the 

effects of drought, with a 41 per cent 

decrease in production. European 

Union rapeseed production increased 

1 per cent, reflecting production gains 

in France and the United Kingdom 

(11 and 21 per cent, respectively) offset 

by decreases in production across 

the remainder of Europe. Sunflower- 

seed production declined in many 

countries, due to reduced area and 

unfavourable weather; Spain (49 per 

cent reduction) experienced the 

largest decline. 

In the Russian Federation and 

Ukraine, sunflower production rose 

35 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively 

in 2005. Growing-season 

weather conditions were favourable 

for sunflowers, boosting yields above 

the previous year. In addition, the area 

planted with sunflowers increased in 

both the Russian Federation and 

Ukraine. 

In China, below-normal rainfall and 

lower yields reduced 2005 winter 

rapeseed production by over 13 per 

cent. Additionally, soybean production 

was down about 2 per cent due in 

part to flooding and lower yields in 

key growing areas of Manchuria. 

In India, total oilseed production 

increased slightly (2 per cent) in 2005. 

Winter rapeseed production was up 

5 per cent from last year, primarily 

due to a 4 per cent increase in area. 

For the second consecutive year, 

summer oilseed production was 

mixed. Soybean production (up 9 per 

137

138 

cent) was not adversely affected by 

the erratic start to the 2005 monsoon 

season, due in part to higher acreage 

(6 per cent increase). Peanut (groundnut) 

production was down 3 per cent, 

mainly due to flooding in key groundnut 

areas of Gujarat and southern 

India. In Gujarat, India’s second 

largest groundnut-producing state, 

excessive monsoon rainfall flooded 

fields, increasing disease concerns 

and reducing yield potential. Farther 

south, India’s rabi (winter) groundnut 

crop was adversely impacted by 

unseasonably heavy rainfall during the 

flowering stage in October. 

In Argentina, soybean production rose 

almost 20 per cent in 2005. Nearly 

ideal growing conditions benefited 

flowering and pod-filling soybeans 

during January and February in the 

main growing areas. Similarly, 

sunflower production increased about 

10 per cent due to increased yield on 

marginally larger area. In southern 

Brazil, soybean farmers experienced a 

second year of drought (see Figure 3) 

and yields were slightly lower than 

those recorded in 2004. However, 

production was about 4 per cent 

higher due to a sixth consecutive year 

of record planted area and fewer problems 

with Asian Rust in northern 

growing areas compared with the 

previous year. 

Rice Summary 

World rice production rose 2 per cent 

in 2005. Rice production increased 

slightly throughout most of South- 

East Asia and India. 

In India, rice production increased 

2 per cent. Production increased 3 per 

cent in Bangladesh, which was spared 

from flooding for much of the season. 

Pakistan recorded an increase of 

Precipitation (mm) 

700 

600 

500 

400 

300 

200 

100 

0 

Normal 

2005 

2004 

1 Jan. 

5 Jan. 

9 Jan. 

13 Jan. 

17 Jan. 

21 Jan. 

25 Jan. 

29 Jan. 

2 Feb. 

6 Feb. 

10 Feb. 

14 Feb. 

18 Feb. 

22 Feb. 

28 Feb. 

2 Mar. 

6 Mar. 

10 Mar. 

18 Mar. 

22 Mar. 

26 Mar. 

30 Mar. 

3 Apr. 

7 Apr. 

11 Apr. 

15 Apr. 

19 Apr. 

23 Apr. 

27 Apr. 

about 10 per cent due to higher yields 

(also up 9 per cent). In Thailand, production 

rose by nearly 5 per cent due 

to a more normal monsoon season as 

compared with the previous year. In 

Viet Nam, rice production in 2005 

remained virtually unchanged from 

the previous year. In China, 2005 rice 

production rose slightly, due primarily 

to an increase in area. 

Cotton Summary 

World cotton production declined by 

5 per cent in 2005. Cotton production 

increased in the USA, Uzbekistan, and 

Argentina, and declined in China, 

India, Pakistan, Turkey and Brazil. 

In the northern hemisphere, USA cotton 

production was up 2 per cent from 

2004 and reached a record high for the 

second consecutive year. Most of the 

US cotton belt experienced favourable 

growing and harvest conditions, 

although the remnants of hurricanes 

Katrina (late August) and Rita (late September) 

produced heavy rain and gusty 

winds in the lower Mississippi Valley. 

In Uzbekistan, favourable weather conditions 

during the growing season and 

autumn harvest period resulted in an 

8 per cent increase in cotton production. 

In China, production decreased by 

Figure 3 — 

Cumulative 

precipitation for 

Rio Grande Do 

Sul, Brazil. 

10 per cent. Despite favourable growing 

conditions in Xinjiang, wet weather 

on the North China Plain, while bolls 

were open, reduced yields. Turkish 

production decreased by nearly 15 per 

cent due to unfavourably wet weather 

during the cotton harvest. In India, cotton 

production decreased 2 per cent 

due in part to heavy late-season rain in 

northern India, which fell as cotton 

reached the open-boll stage of development. 

Production in Pakistan also 

dropped (14 per cent) in response to 

unseasonably heavy rains in September. 

In the southern hemisphere, Australian 

cotton production surged 

approximately 76 per cent in 2005 in 

response to improved soil moisture 

and reservoir levels. Near-normal rainfall 

during 2004 helped break the devastating 

drought that enveloped northern 

New South Wales and southern 

Queensland during 2002 and 2003, 

boosting moisture supplies for dryland 

and irrigated crops. In Argentina, production 

jumped 31 per cent as 

increased area offset a decline in 

yield. In Brazil, production fell slightly 

as drought-reduced yields were partially 

offset by a 6 per cent increase in 

area.

Winner of an 

international 

weather 

prediction 

competition 

100 years ago 

Gabriel Guilbert (1862-1940) © Météo-France 

By Jean-Pierre Javelle* 

On 30 September 1905, the jury of the 

international short-range weather forecasting 

competition unanimously 

decided to award the prize to Gabriel 

Guilbert (1862-1940), secretary of the 

Commission météorologique du 

Calvados. The jury also gave a 

* Chief, Documentation Department, 

Météo-France 

commendation to work carried out by 

Emile Durand-Gréville (1838-1913), 

one of the French representatives at 

the International Meteorological 

Conference in Innsbruck, which had 

taken place at the beginning of the 

month. French meteorology was 

therefore recognized, even though 

Guilbert and Durand-Gréville were not 

among the then approximately thirty 

staff of the Bureau central 

météorologique (BCM), the predecessor 

of Météo-France. 

The competition was organized by 

the Société belge d’astronomie on 

the occasion of the Liege (Belgium) 

International Exhibition and great 

Gabriel Guilbert 

This article appeared in 

Atmosphériques No. 25 (January 

2006 issue). 

It has been reproduced here 

with the kind permission of 

Météo-France. 

care was taken to ensure that it 

would be of a serious, scientific 

nature. The jury was made up of 

renowned experts, including Léon 

Teisserenc de Bort, Director of the 

Observatoire de météorologie 

dynamique in Trappes, who was 

Guilbert was a passionate meteorologist and an excellent observer and 

forecaster, but he also had a strong personality and a distinct taste for 

arguments, so had turbulent relationships with his peers. On 6 April 1886, 

he exhibited the “cloud sequences” which he had discovered, at the 

Société météorologique de France (SMF). 

In the SMF’s yearbook of 1891 he published the rules of forecasting based 

on the relationship between observations of the horizontal pressuregradient 

and wind speed, which he later used in 1905 in the forecasting 

competition. 

As from 1912 he prepared the weather forecasts for the daily newspaper Le 

Matin. During the First World War, he worked with the Bureau 

météorologique militaire, then in 1921 he became a first class meteorologist 

at the recently created Office national météorologique (ONM), which 

replaced the Bureau central météorologique, though this did not prevent 

him from harshly criticizing the ONM’s forecasting methods in the press. 

In the preface of his book, Les systèmes nuageux [Cloud Systems] 

published in 1922, Colonel Delcambre, director of the ONM, paid 

homage to Guilbert’s groundbreaking ideas on cloud sequences. 

In 1923 and 1924, Guilbert unsuccessfully proposed the organization of 

another international weather forecasting competition. Until the end of 

the 1930s, he continued to produce weather forecasts for Le Matin and 

published many popular works on weather forecasting. 

139

140 

The situation on 7 December 1899 analysed by Emile Durand-Gréville for the competition. 

The isobars are plotted millimetre by millimetre of mercury. © Météo-France 

famous for having discovered the 

stratosphere in 1902. 

Twenty-four competitors entered. The 

first round, comprising a practical test, 

took place from 1 to 15 September. 

Each day, candidates had to send their 

forecasts for the next day to the 

Société belge d’astronomie in 

Brussels. After this first test, nine 

candidates were invited to Liege, of 

whom seven actually went there. 

During the second test, from 26 to 

28 September, the candidates had 

to forecast the next day’s weather 

for ten situations in the past, seven 

having been selected at random and 

three because of the problems they 

posed. The three candidates who 

got the best results, Durand- 

Gréville, Guilbert and the Dutch 

forecaster, Nell, had to explain their 

methods and answer the jury’s 

questions. The jury unanimously 

decided to award the prize to 

Guilbert, but also commended 

Durand-Gréville for the quality of 

some of his forecasts as well as his 

remarkable work on squalls. We 

now know that the “squall lines and 

bands” revealed by Durand-Gréville 

in 1892 foreshadowed the cold 

fronts made popular by the 

Norwegian school of meteorology 

more than twenty years later. Pierre 

Duvergé recently published an interesting 

article in Arc-en-Ciel, the 

bulletin of the Association des 

anciens de la météorologie, summarizing 

the ideas of his forgotten 

precursor, Durand-Gréville, and 

highlighting his other talents as a 

journalist and art critic.

50 years 

ago ... 

Prof. H. Riehl of the University of Chicago 

delivers a lecture on the structure of hurricanes 

during the first international seminar on 

hurricanes (Ciudad Trujillo, Dominican Republic, 

16-25 February 1956). 

Excerpts drawn from WMO Bulletin 

5 (2), April 1956* 

This issue carried articles on the first 

Caribbean Hurricane seminar, the 

International Geophysical Year 1957- 

1958, activities of the Technical Commissions, 

utilization of wind power in 

India, meteorology in Europe, use of 

micro-opaque cards in meteorology, 

collaboration with other international 

organizations, the Technical Assistance 

Programme, meteorological 

transmissions in Europe and the international 

scale of radiation. 

Caribbean Hurricane Seminar 

Fifty-six meteorologists, lecturers and 

participants from 18 countries 

attended the first international hurricane 

seminar. Topics included formation, 

structure and movement of hurricanes; 

the use of radar in tracking the 

movement and in determining rainfall 

patterns; numerical forecasting; aircraft 

reconnaissance; national hurricane 

warning systems; and construction 

methods necessary to minimize 

property damage and the loss of life in 

regions vulnerable to hurricanes. 

The Secretary-General [of WMO], 

Mr D.A. Davies, stated that, in general, 

technical assistance was given 

primarily to strengthen the economies 

of less developed nations with a view 

to promoting their economic and political 

independence and to helping 

them to achieve higher levels of economic 

and social welfare. Meteorology 

was an important field in this 

assistance. Daily weather forecasts 

and climatological studies assisted 

agriculture, aviation, sea transport, 

fishing and domestic industries to 

prosper and timely warnings of severe 

weather, such as hurricanes and 

floods, aid in minimizing the disasters 

caused by weather. 

A most important aspect of international 

gatherings was the opportunity 

for meteorologists from various countries 

to become acquainted. Probably 

no other social effort of man required 

closer cooperation and coordination 

* A more detailed version of the WMO Bulletin 50 years ago can be found at 

http://www.wmo.int/meteoworld 

between nations than the practice of 

the science of meteorology. Cooperation 

was much easier to achieve 

when the parties knew each other. An 

impersonal request takes on a personal 

meaning and is not, therefore, 

easily dismissed. 

International Geophysical Year 

(IGY) 1957-1958 

The overall programme for the International 

Geophysical Year was the 

responsibility of the [then] International 

Council of Scientific Unions 

(ICSU) but WMO’s role was of great 

importance. A group of experts met 

in March 1956 to discuss outstanding 

questions. 

The experts supported a proposal 

that the meteorological programme 

should include the measurement of 

evaporation and evapotranspiration. 

They also supported a proposal to 

include investigations using tritium, 

in the form of heavy water vapour, 

as a means of following air movement. 

The release of heavy water 

vapour over the Antarctic, for example, 

could contribute to a solution of 

the problem of the mixing of Antarctic 

air masses with the rest of the 

atmosphere. 

The WMO Secretariat would act as an 

international meteorological centre for 

the IGY. Its main functions would be 

to collect the essential meteorological 

data and to make arrangements for 

supplying copies of the data to scientific 

institutes and researchers. 

Meteorological Services would be 

requested to supply data from their 

main synoptic surface stations, upperair 

stations and selected ships. The 

data would be supplied on standard 

forms to ensure a reasonably homogeneous 

presentation.The WMO IGY 

Unit would register the forms and 

send them out for reproduction on 

141

142 

micro-opaque cards. Copes of these 

cards would then be made available at 

cost price. 

The period 1 to 5 January 1957 would be 

designated as a trial period for the IGY. 

Utilization of wind power in India 

Studies were being carried out with a 

view to developing wind-power 

resources in India. This included the 

identification of favourable sites 

where the availability of power under 

optimum conditions could be 

assessed. 

It was concluded that large, untapped 

resources of wind power could be 

profitably used in rural areas for purposes 

such as pumping water for 

drinking, sanitation, irrigation of small 

holdings, drainage, etc. Other possible 

uses of windmills in rural areas are for 

the processing of agricultural products, 

such as grinding corn, threshing 

and oil extraction. 

Most regions in India have average 

wind velocities of less than 16 km/h. 

Studies of windmill efficiency had 

indicated that economic utilization of 

windmills would be possible in these 

regions only by construction of fairly 

large size windmills at low cost using 

indigenous materials. A design project 

had been initiated with a prototype 

windmill using wood and bamboo. 

A proposal was now under consideration 

by the Government of India for 

utilizing wind power on a large scale in 

accordance with a phased programme. 

It was contemplated to use more than 

20 000 small windmills in rural areas and 

perhaps a few hundred medium-sized 

wind electric plants for electric supply, 

for the operation of pumping installations 

and for supply of electricity in outof-the-way 

localities for lighthouses, 

plantations, etc. 

Membership 

The Republic of Korea became 

the 94th Member of WMO on 

16 March 1956. 

Collaboration with other international 

organizations 

WMO was represented at the sixth 

session of the FAO Indo-Pacific 

Fisheries Council (Tokyo, 30 September- 

14 October 1955). The Council 

promoted the development and proper 

utilization of living aquatic resources of 

the Indo-Pacific area, through international 

cooperation. 

Weather is an important factor in fishing 

operations and in several other 

aspects of the fishing industry, such as 

the design of fishing craft and gear and 

the faunal distribution over the oceans. 

Evidence was at hand that certain longterm 

changes in oceanographic 

conditions were associated with 

changes in the faunal and floral distribution 

over the oceans. For instance, it 

was reported that the distribution and 

abundance of sardine in the Far East had 

been influenced, on at least four occasions, 

by abnormal changes in 

oceanographic or meteorological conditions, 

Similarly, the amelioration [sic] of 

the subarctic climate in the last 25 or 30 

years (or longer) had resulted in the 

northward extension of a great many 

organisms. The changes in distribution, 

density and spawning area of cod were 

particularly striking. During the period of 

weather amelioration, the catch on the 

west coast of Greenland had increased 

by a factor of about 30 and the area of 

the greatest density moved some 

480 km to the north. 

In order to gain more knowledge on the 

bioclimatology of fisheries, the Council 

recommended that the first Fisheries 

Year for the Indo-Pacific area should be 

held during the International 

Geophysical Year 1957-1958 so that 

biological, fishery and geophysical data 

could be collected at the same time. 

In his presentation on the role of WMO 

in providing weather information for fisheries, 

the WMO observer stressed the 

significance of weather to the fishing 

industry and assured the fullest cooperation 

of WMO in supplying weather 

information designed to promote safety 

in fishing operations. Member governments 

should be informed of the 

facilities provided by WMO and of the 

desirability of equipping their fishing 

fleets for reception and transmission of 

meteorological data.

Reviews 

Baroclinic Tides— 

Theoretical 

Modeling and 

Observational 

Evidence 

Vasiliy Vlasenko, 

Nataliya Stashchuk 

and Koluman Hutter. Cambridge 

University Press (2005). 

ISBN 0-521-84395-2. xix + 351 pp. 

Price: £70/US$ 120. 

This book will be very useful, especially 

for graduate students in the 

areas of physical oceanography and of 

numerical modelling applied to 

oceanography, generally. The organization 

of the seven chapters is logical; 

the proposed methods are presented 

after a good theoretical introduction, 

making it easy for the reader to find 

themes of interest. 

The numeration of formulas guides 

the reader through the basic formulation, 

the assumptions and the theory 

to gain a better understanding of 

the methods that are explained in 

the book. 

The introduction in the first chapter 

gives the elements of the theory and 

formulas that are used in the following 

chapters. In this way, those who 

are not familiar with governing equations 

and linear wave equations may 

acquire the notions to understand better 

the formulation of the non-linear 

wave problem and the theory 

explained throughout the book. 

The second chapter explains linear 

baroclinic tides, then the numerical 

model, and the authors make an 

analysis of the formulation used for 

the different situations to which it can 

be applied. The internal wave generation 

theory is well described. 

The third chapter introduces a semianalytical 

two-layer model for internal 

waves, explaining the theory and 

describing the necessary equations. 

This makes it easier to understand the 

theory presented in the fourth chapter, 

where the analytical model 

approach changes to the numerical 

model approach. 

The fifth chapter describes the generation 

of internal waves by baroclinic 

tides and the models to analyse them. 

In view of the different uses to which 

data obtained from measurements 

and those from models are put, the 

chapter also explains the origin of the 

formulas used to explain the characteristics 

of the different types of 

waves generated. This allows a better 

understanding of the theory proposed 

for the analysis of the different types 

of waves studied. 

The sixth chapter compares the data 

obtained from measurements and the 

results of experiments and makes an 

analysis of the effects and influences 

of the different characteristics that can 

be applied for the theory that is 

explained. Finally, the authors make a 

summary of the generation mechanism 

of baroclinic tides which helps 

the reader to a better understanding of 

the waves generated under the different 

regimes and what is the approach 

that can be used for each of them. 

The last chapter explains the threedimensional 

effects of baroclinic tides 

for specific cases, using observed 

data for the analysis. This is really useful, 

because it gives the reader good 

tools to analyse the data that can be 

obtained from our own measurements 

and to establish different casestudies. 

Rodney Martínez 

(r.martinez@ciifen-int.org) 

Encyclopedia of Weather and 

Climate. 

Michael Allaby. Facts on File, New 

York (2002). ISBN 0-8160-4071-0 

(two volumes). Price: US$ 150. 

Michael Allaby undoubtedly enjoys 

the physical sciences and this comes 

through in his two-volume Encyclopedia 

of Weather and Climate. The 

title is a misnomer, however, 

because it describes more than just 

weather and climate. The encyclopedia 

contains explanations of the various 

physical, synoptic and thermodynamic 

processes that produce 

weather and climate in a concise but 

straightforward manner. It provides 

classifications of the various climates 

and descriptions of significant 

palaeoclimatic regimes. The important 

scientific concepts are written in 

a format that is easy to understand. 

It is not written for the physical scientist 

and therefore the author limits 

his use of equations. The layman will 

find the encyclopedia quite useful. 

The various meteorological and 

oceanographic terms are well 

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144 

defined. The definitions are supplemented 

by effective maps, charts 

and schematic diagrams. There are 

over 4 000 entries in the two volumes, 

which include explanations of 

the impacts of climate on ecology 

and human health. These elements 

make the encyclopedia a welcome 

addition to the meteorological library 

and as a good reference for the general 

public. 

Even the professional meteorologist 

will find the volumes useful. Explanations 

of terms that may only be used 

in particular locations are included. 

The meaning of contrastes—a local 

wind in the Mediterranean—is 

included, for example. 

Those who require information on 

international climatological or meteorological 

activities, projects and programmes 

will not be disappointed. 

The Cooperative Holocene Mapping 

Project is described and references to 

Websites for more information are 

provided. This is available throughout 

both volumes. 

Climate change has now entered the 

vernacular of the news and everyday 

life. Important information on this 

topic can also be found in the encyclopedia. 

The meaning of terms such as 

the clean development mechanism 

(CDM) is included. 

However, the encyclopedia goes 

beyond that. It provides interesting 

historical narratives such as a description 

of the formation of the United 

States Weather Bureau. It also provides 

biographical information on 

important historical figures in meteorology 

such as Daniel Fahrenheit, the 

developer of the Fahrenheit temperature 

scale. Photographs and sketches 

of some of these figures are included. 

In addition, the encyclopedia is liberally 

interspersed with anecdotes such 

as the use of conditions on Christmas 

Day to predict the weather months in 

advance. 

The author has also tried to include 

significant weather events. These 

include various tropical cyclones that 

have affected nations around the 

world. Naturally, every tropical 

cyclone that had significant impacts 

on all locations could not be included. 

There were bound to be major omissions. 

Readers will therefore be disappointed 

when a system that they 

expected to find is not included. 

Earth science information is also 

included. The reader will therefore be 

able to find information on volcanoes 

and other geological phenomena. 

The encyclopedia ends with five 

appendices that include chronologies 

of disasters and discoveries, geological 

timescales, important Websites 

and an index. 


Services (NMHS) continue to 

be the resource of first choice for 

the general public concerning physical 

phenomena especially in developing 

countries. This small set of 

encyclopedias can serve as an 

important resource for those who 

have to respond quickly to requests 

from the public, students and teachers. 

The terms are placed logically 

and effectively cross-referenced. 

Material is therefore easy to find. 

The concise, but straightforward 

entries can be used to provide simple 

explanations. Junior members of 

staff can use the information to 

become attuned to activities occurring 

on the periphery of their immediate 

duties and responsibilities, and 

even senior members of staff can 

use it as a resource for unfamiliar 

terms. I would therefore recommend 

it as an addition to the meteorological 

library or a handy reference for 

the on duty meteorologist in a small 

National Hydrological and Meteorological 

Service. 

Hydrogeology of the 

Oceanic Lithosphere 

E. Davis and H. Elderfield 

(Eds). Cambridge 

University Press 

(2004). 

xx + 706 pages; 

+ CD-ROM. 

ISBN 0-521-81929-6 (h/b). 

Price: £95/US$ 170. 

Carlos Fuller 

(ozone@btl.net) 

The book consists of five parts. It 

starts with a brief history of the discovery 

and evolution of the topic 

treated over a period of about 

30 years to specialized aspects that 

include the geochemistry of the 

processes of reaction and mechanisms 

of transport of the fluid flows, 

through the different structures of the 

oceanic crust, including the nature, 

state and properties of the means in 

which these flows are developed. 

Part III is a quantitative analysis of the 

treated parameters of heat and fluid 

flow. The five parts contain 21 articles 

written by scientists of different 

research organisms and of varied 

experience in the subject. 

The review presented here centres on 

the general context of the book, its 

form and structure, the scientific 

base, and the form of its presentation, 

language and style; as well as the correlations 

between the theories and 

the diagrams. 

Several specialists who participated in 

a workshop supported by the International 

Lithosphere Program and the 

Joint Oceanographic Institutions/US 

Science Support Program decided to 

present the results of their studies in 

diverse disciplines (physics, chem-

istry, and microbiology). The subject is 

becoming increasingly important, 

especially for students and 

researchers in the Earth sciences and 

oceanography. The contents are written 

in clear, explanatory language. 

The information provided in each article 

is adapted, coherent and up to 

date. The book is a good tool for 

researchers who wish to correlate 

diverse parameters and results in different 

environments. A wide range of 

different subjects is treated, from the 

properties of the materials of the 

oceanic crust generated during the 

cortical accretion, to the methodologies 

used and suggested for improved 

acquisition of the results (nature, 

causes and consequences). 

An important aspect of the book is the 

presence of an ample preface and 

explained objectives. The content, terminology, 

and perspectives of the 

subject and the clarity of the presentation 

make the book useful. 

Another important aspect is the clear 

presentation of ideas and use of new 

tools, including the shore-to-ship connection. 

It may become questionable 

and difficult to bridge the different disciplines 

in order to be able to better 

understand the dynamics of the 

planet. 

The subject dealt with has recently 

become an interesting one for those 

countries with seismic activity. In the 

case of Ecuador, for example, measurements 

of heat flow were made in 

the marine campaign Amadeus, 2005. 

The experience developed throughout 

the years has allowed us to define key 

elements for the understanding and 

quantification of the rates of change 

of flows between the crust and overlying 

oceans—elements that are now 

clearly understood and better visualized. 

The book describes work on one 

of the most widely distributed and volumetrically 

important: ridge flanks. 

The subject is not only of scientific 

but also of economical interest 

because of the relations between different 

types of flows and mineralogical 

elements. While the editors do not 

try to answer all the questions that 

could be raised, the desire to contribute 

to enhanced knowledge of the 

subject is demonstrated. 

A remark concerns the part about 

geochemical fluxes. It would have 

been better to interchange Chapters 

19 and 21 so as to present the topic 

from a global context to a more specific 

one, which is the fundamental 

subject of the book. 

The book carries an interactive accompanying 

CD-ROM with a full set of diagrams, 

captions, references and photos 

of research vessels, submersibles, 

and other tools used in hydrological 

studies. 

To summarize, the vast experience of 

the specialists who contributed to the 

writing of this volume, makes this 

work, a valuable resource in the sciences 

of the Earth and the sea. 

Essy Santana Jara 

(geologia@inocar.mil.ec) 

145

146 

New books 

received 

Carbon Dioxide 

Capture and Storage 


Panel on Climate 

Change (IPCC). Cambridge 

University Press 

(2005). 

ISBN 0-521-68551-6. 

x + 431 pp. 

Price: £40/US$ 70. 

This IPCC Special Report provides 

information for policy-makers, scientists 

and engineers in the field of 

climate change and reduction of CO 2 

emissions. It describes sources, 

capture, transport, and storage of CO 2 . 

It also discusses the costs, economic 

potential and societal issues of the 

technology, including public perception 

and regulatory aspects. Storage 

options evaluated include geological 

storage, ocean storage and mineral 

carbonization. Notably, the report 

places CO 2 capture and storage in the 

context of other climate change mitigation 

options, such as fuel switch, 

energy efficiency, renewables and 

nuclear energy. 

The volume includes a Summary for 

Policymakers approved by governments 

represented in the IPCC, and a 

Technical Summary. 

The journey to 

Pices—Scientific 

Cooperation in the 

North Pacific 

Sara Tjossem. Alaska 

Sea Grant College 

Programme (2005). 

ISBN 0-521-86509-3. 

xii + 194 pp. 

Price: US$ 20. 

This book is a significant contribution 

to the history of international marine 

scientific organizations. It presents the 

process of creating the North Pacific 

Marine Science Organization (PICES). 

It seems obvious enough that such an 

organization was needed—the best 

way for the Pacific Rim nations to gain 

knowledge about the enormous North 

Pacific Ocean is through cooperative 

research—yet PICES was two 

decades in the making. 

The reasons for this lengthy incubation 

are described. The process took 

promotion, patience, and perseverance. 

Today, PICES is an active sixnation 

international marine organization, 

contributing substantially to 

marine science. 

Safeguarding the 

Ozone Layer and the 

Global Climate 

System 


Panel on Climate 

Change (IPCC). Cambridge 

University Press (2006). 

ISBN 0-521-6826-1. 

x + 478 pp. 

Price: £80/US$ 140. 

This IPCC Technology and Economic 

Assessment Panel Special Report provides 

information relevant to decisionmaking 

in regard to safeguarding the 

ozone layer and the climate system. 

Scientific evidence linking chlorofluo- 

rocarbons and other ozone-depleting 

substances (ODSs) led to the initial 

control of chemicals under the 1987 

Montreal Protocol and to amendments 

and adjustments in the 1990s. 

As various approaches to the phaseout 

of ODSs were developed it was 

realized that some actions taken to 

reduce future depletion of the ozone 

layer, in particular the introduction of 

HFCs and PFCs, could affect global 

warming. 

This report provides the scientific context 

required for consideration of 

choices among alternatives to ODSs; 

potential methodologies for assessing 

options; and technical issues relating 

to greenhouse-gas emission-reduction 

opportunities for each of the sectors 

involved. 

The volume includes a Summary for 

Policymakers approved by governments 

represented in the IPCC, and a 

Technical Summary. 

Arctic Climate Impact 

Assessment 

Cambridge University 

Press (2006). 

ISBN 0-521-86509-3. 

v + 1042 pp. 

Price: £120/US$ 200. 

Earth’s climate is changing, with the 

global temperature now rising at a 

rate unprecedented in the experience 

of modern human society. These climate 

changes, including increases in 

ultraviolet radiation, are being experienced 

particularly intensely in the Arctic. 

Because the Arctic plays a special 

role in global climate, these changes 

in the Arctic will also affect the rest of 

the world. It is thus essential that 

decision-makers have the latest and 

best information available regarding 

ongoing changes in the Arctic and 

their global implications.

The Arctic Council called for this 

assessment and charged two of its 

working groups, the Arctic Monitoring 

and Assessment Programme (AMAP) 

and the Conversation and the Conservation 

of Arctic Flora and Fauna 

(CAFF), along with the International 

Arctic Science Committee (IASC), 

with the responsibility for scientific 

oversight and coordination of all work 

related to the preparation of the 

assessment reports. 

For the full WMO catalogue of publications 

and how to order these and 

other publications, see: 

http://www.wmo.ch/web/catalogue/ 

Recent WMO 

publications 

WMO at a glance 

(WMO-No. 990) 

[A-C-F-R-S in 

preparation ] 

20 pp. 

ISBN: 92-63-10990-7 

Price: CHF 15 

Preventing and 

mitigating natural 

disasters 


iii + 34 pp. 

ISBN: 92-63-10993-1 

Price: CHF 15 

WMO statement on 

the status of the 

global climate in 2005 


[A] [C] [F] [R] [S] 

12 pp. 

92-63-10998-2 

Price: CHF 15 

An annually updated 12-page booklet 

illustrated with graphic analyses, to 

describe the evolution and fluctuations 

of the climate system on global and 

regional scales. 

Obituary 

Kirill Kondratyev 

Kirill Kondratyev died on 1 May 2006. 

He was a famous scientist, a full 

Academician of the Russian Academy 

of Sciences and an acknowledged 

expert in the area of climate 

and the environment. He was 

the author of more than 1 000 

papers in prestigious journals, as 

well as more than 100 monographs 

and textbooks. Kondratyev 

was an honorary member of many 

meteorological societies and scientific 

academies worldwide. He was editor-in-chief 

of the Russian Journal 

Earth Observations and Remote 

Sensing for many years and a member 

of a number of editorial boards. 

He spent the first 30 years of his 

scientific career with the State University 

of Leningrad, where he 

became rector, and he worked 

closely with the A.I. Boeykov Main 

Geophysical Observatory. The next 

30 years were spent at the Institute 

of Limnology and the Centre for 

Ecological Safety. Kondratyev was 

one of the founders of the Nansen 

International Environmental and 

Remote Sensing Centre in St. 

Petersburg, of which he was a cochairman 

for many years. 

Kondratyev won many prestigious 

awards, including WMO’s IMO 

Prize. 

147

148 

Visits of the 

Secretary- 

General 

The Secretary-General, Mr Michel 

Jarraud, recently made official visits 

to a number of Member countries 

as briefly reported below. He wishes 

to place on record his gratitude to 

those Members for the kindness and 

hospitality extended to him. 

Argentina 

The Secretary-General visited 

Argentina from 16 to 22 January 2006, 

on the occasion of the sixth session of 

the WMO Consultative Meetings on 

High-level Policy on Satellite Matters 

(16-17 January), the 55th session of 

the WMO Bureau (18-20 January) and 

the Joint Consultative Meeting of 

UNESCO’s Intergovernmental 

Oceanographic Commission (IOC) 

Officers and WMO Bureau Members 

(20-21 January). Mr Jarraud visited the 

Air Force Headquarters and met with 

the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Argentine 

Air Force, Brigadier E.E. Bianco. 

Holding the sixth session of the WMO 

Consultative Meetings on High-level 

Policy on Satellite Matters was an 

opportunity to illustrate the global 

nature of WMO’s objectives and programmes. 

The Secretary-General 

expressed the opinion that the sessions 

served as a unique forum for 

WMO and the satellite operators to 

ensure a better understanding of the 

Participants in the sixth session of the WMO Consultative Meetings on High-level Policy on 

Satellite Matters (16-17 January 2006) 

issues involved and to agree on important 

recommendations that assist 

WMO Members in better appreciating 

the potential benefits that can be 

derived from satellite systems. 

HE Ambassador M.S. Pataro, Deputy- 

Director of International Organizations 

of the Ministry of Foreign Relations 

and International Trade, and Brigadier 

J.A. Alvarez, Chief of Staff of the Air 

Regions Command, addressed the 

55th session of the WMO Bureau. The 

support of the Argentine Government 

to the National Meteorological Service 

was highlighted as a major instrument 

in the socio-economic development of 

the country. The vital role of WMO in 

coordinating and promoting cooperation 

in meteorology and hydrology for 

the sustainable development of all 

nations was also stressed. Under the 

chairmanship of the President of 

WMO, Dr A. Bedritsky, the Bureau 

considered a number of issues related 

to the preparations of the forthcoming 

session of the Executive Council. 

At the Joint Consultative Meeting of 

IOC Officers and WMO Bureau 

Members, the IOC was represented 

by Dr D.T. Pugh, Chairperson of IOC, 

Prof. Jilan Su, Former Chairman of 

IOC, and the four IOC Vice-chairmen, 

Dr A. Dubi, Dr A. Frolov, Mr J. Valladares 

and Dr N. Smith. Dr A. Bedritsky 

and Dr D. Pugh jointly chaired 

the session. The Argentine Government 

was represented at the opening 

ceremony by HE Ambassador 

M.S. Pataro, Deputy-Director of International 

Organizations of the Ministry 

of Foreign Relations and International 

Trade, HE Ambassador S. Ruiz Cerruti, 

Legal Advisor to the same Ministry, 

and Mr A. Mendivielle, representing 

the Secretary of Science, 

Technology and Productive Innovation. 

The meeting discussed numerous 

matters of importance and 

mutual interest to IOC and WMO. In 

particular, it considered the follow-up 

to the Indian Ocean tsunami disaster. 

It also addressed follow-up issues 

related to the recent session of the 

Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission 

for Oceanography and Marine 

Meteorology (JCOMM), which had 

been held in Halifax (Canada) in September 

2005.

United States of America 

The Secretary-General visited 

Atlanta (USA) from 31 January to 2 

February 2006, to participate in the 

86th Annual Meeting of the American 

Meteorological Society (AMS). 

Mr Jarraud was the keynote 

speaker at a dinner hosted by the 

AMS, at which he talked on “Capacity 

building in meteorology and 

hydrology in the service of society”, 

stressing the importance of integrating 

maintenance costs and 

human resources development, in 

order for projects in developing 

nations to be sustainable. He said 

that capacity building would be a 

major challenges and that the success 

of these efforts would depend 

on the important contributions by all 

sectors—government, academia, 

private sector and NGOs—all of 

which were represented at the 

AMS meeting. 

On 2 February Mr Jarraud made a 

presentation entitled ”The evolving 

role of the National Meteorological 

and Hydrological Services”, in the 

context of the International Session 

on Multi-Hazard Warning Systems, 

organized by the US National 

Weather Service. 

The Secretary-General held meetings 

with permanent representatives of 

WMO Members present at the session 

and visited the Exhibition Hall, 

which included a display of WMO 

public information products. He further 

took advantage of his stay in 

Atlanta to visit the weather facilities 

at CNN International and the 

Weather Channel. 

Oman 

On 11 February 2006, the Secretary- 

General visited Muscat, Oman, on 

the occasion of the commissioning 

Muscat, Oman, 11 February 2006 — Commissioning of the seventh Centre of Excellence for 

Education and Training in Satellite Meteorology 

of the seventh Centre of Excellence 

for the Virtual Laboratory for Education 

and Training in Satellite Meteorology. 

Among the national authorities 

present at the ceremony were 

HE Dr Saud Bin Nasser Al Riyami, 

President of Sultan Qaboos University, 

HE Mohamed Bin Sakhar Al 

Amri, Under Secretary for Civil Aviation 

Affairs of the Ministry of Transport 

and Communication, and Mr 

Abdul Rahim Salim Al Harmi, Acting 

Director General for Civil Aviation 

and Meteorology. In his statement, 

Mr Jarraud congratulated the Government 

of Oman and expressed 

WMO’s gratitude for Omani contributions 

to the education and training 

activities of the WMO Space 

Programme. 

Mr Jarraud also expressed his 

appreciation to the European 

Organisation for the Exploitation 

of Meteorological Satellites 

(EUMETSAT) and the Indian Meteorological 

Department, for their 

commitment to sponsor the seventh 

Centre of Excellence, as well 

as to the Government of Japan, 

for its support. The Secretary-General 

noted that over the past two 

decades, satellites had had an 

increasing impact on WMO’s 

activities, and that he expected 

this positive influence to further 

increase in the future. 

South Africa 

The Secretary-General visited Cape 

Town, South Africa, from 15 to 18 

February 2006, on the occasion of 

the 14th session of the WMO 

Commission for Atmospheric Sciences 

(CAS), which was preceded 

by the World Weather Research 

Programme (WWRP) THORPEX 

Scientific Conference Improving 

the Global Predictability of High 

Impact Weather, including a review 

of Southern Hemisphere Plans (see 

photo on the following page). 

During his visit, Mr Jarraud met 

with Mr M. Van Schalkwyk, Minister 

of Environmental Affairs and 

Tourism, and Ms Sizeka Rensburg, 

Chairperson of the South African 

Weather Service Board. South 

Africa has a long tradition of 

actively supporting WMO’s Programmes 

and activities: in particu- 

149

150 

Cape Town, South Africa, February 2006 — Participants in the THORPEX Scientific 

Conference: Improving the Global Predictability of High Impact Weather 

lar, the South African Weather Service 

is an active contributor to CAS 

and operates the Cape Point Global 

Atmospheric Watch (station. The 

Secretary-General visited this station 

and also inaugurated the establishment 

of the THORPEX Southern 

Hemisphere Committee. 

France 

On 23 February 2006, the Secretary-General 

visited Paris to participate 

in a conference and debate 

organized by the Scientific Council 

of the French Association for the 

Prevention of Natural Disasters 

(AFPCN). In the presence of HE Ms 

N. Olin, Minister of Ecology and 

Sustainable Development, and Senator 

Mr Y. Dauge, President of 

AFPCN, Mr Jarraud presented the 

opening keynote speech to the conference, 

which was organized as a 

concerted attempt to interactively 

consolidate lessons learnt from the 

major natural disasters that had 

occurred, over the recent months, 

in different parts of the world. 

In his speech, the Secretary-General 

stressed that actions can 

indeed be taken to reduce considerably 

the loss of life and socio-economic 

damage caused by natural 

hazards, through the development 

and integration of risk knowledge 

and end-to-end multi-hazard early 

warning systems, as integral components 

of disaster-risk management 

activities. Thus, all the relevant 

technologies, expertise, 

capacities and experiences that 

were available had prevented many 

other natural hazards from becoming 

natural disasters.

Staff matters 

Appointments 

Elena Manaenkova, 

Director, Cabinet and 

External Relations 

Office: 

1 March 2006 

Jack Hayes, Director, 

World Weather Watch 

Department: 

1 February 2006 

Jorge Cortés, Director, 

Internal Oversight 

Office: 


Anders Norsker, 

Chief, Information 

Technology Division, 

Resource Management 

Department: 


Promotions 

Koji Kuroiwa, Chief, 

Tropical Cyclone 

Programme, 

Applications Programme 

Department: 

1 March 2006 

Ibrahim K. Al-Atwi, 

Chief, Training Activities 

Division, Education and 

Training Department: 

1 March 2006 

Etienne Charpentier, 

Scientific Officer, Ocean 

Affairs Division, Applications 

Programme 

Department: 


Alain A. Rofes 

Gonzalez, Budget 

Systems Assistant, 

Budget Office, Resource 

Management 

Department: 

1 March 2006 

Annick M.J. 

Champagne, Budget 

Clerk, Budget Office, 

Resource Management 

Department: 

1 April 2006 

Roland Bronnimann, Chief of 

Workshop, Printing and Electronic 

Publications Section, Conferences, 

Printing and Distribution Department: 

1 March 2006 

Anne Chautard, Administrative 

Assistant, World Climate Research 

Programme Department: 

1 November 2005 

Corrine Chiavenuto-Castrignano, 

Training Assistant, Education and 

Training Department: 1 February 2006 

Teresita Concepcion, Administrative 

Assistant, Strategic Planning Office, 

Secretary-General’s Office: 


Adora P. Landicho, Administrative 

Assistant, Regional Office for Asia and 

the South-West Pacific, Regional and 

Technical Cooperation Activities for 

Development Department: 


Adel Roshdy, Digital Reproduction 

Clerk, Printing and Electronic 

Publications Section, Conferences, 

Printing and Distribution Department: 

1 March 2006 

Transfers 

Lisbet Rainer, Information 

Management Assistant, Information 

Technology Division, Resource 

Management Department: 


Dieter Schiessl, Director, Crosscutting 

Coordination: 1 February 2006 

Jeon-gyoo Park, seconded expert, 

Regional and Technical Cooperation 

Activities for Development Department: 

3 April 2006 

151

152 

Departures 

Iwona Rummel-Bulska (Senior Legal 

Adviser, Secretary-General’s Office) 

returned to UNEP, Nairobi, at the end of 

her secondment on 22 January 2006. 

Soobasschandra Chacowry 

(Director, Cabinet and External 

Relations Office) retired on 

28 February 2006. 

Nouhou Tata Diallo (Chief, 

Aeronautical Meteorology Unit, 

Applications Programme Department) 

retired on 28 February 2006. 

Anniversaries 

Judith C.C. Torres (Senior Editor, 

Communications and Public Affairs 

Office, Cabinet and External Relations 

Office): 30 years on 5 February 2006. 

Evelyne Masse (Text-processing Clerk, 

Linguistic Services and Publications 

Department): 25 years on 

2 February 2006.

Calendar 

DDaattee TTiittllee PPllaaccee 

15-19 May Training Workshop on Upper-air Observations for RA III Buenos Aires, Argentina 

22 May Integrated Global Observing Strategy Partnership (IGOS-P) Theme Geneva 

Leaders Meeting 

23 May IGOS-P—13th session Geneva 

24 May IGOS-P Geo-Hazards Theme Working Group Meeting Geneva 

29 May-2 June Baseline Surface Radiation Network Committee—ninth session Lindenberg, Germany 

29 May-2 June CBS OPAG/PWS Expert Team on Communication Aspects Dubrovnic, Croatia 

4-8 June Second International Symposium on Quantitative Precipitation Boulder, CO, USA 

Forecasting and Hydrology 

12-16 June Sixth International Conference on Urban Climate Göteborg, Sweden 

(co-sponsored by WMO) 

12-16 June Meeting of the CBS OPAG/PWS Expert Team on Disaster Prevention Beijing, China 

and Mitigation (ET/DPM) 

19 June Fifty-sixth session of the WMO Bureau Geneva 

20-30 June Executive Council—58th session Geneva 

26-30 June The Aviation Seminar Exeter, United Kingdom 

3-6 July CIMO Management Group—third session Geneva 

3-7 July CBS/Implementation Coordination Team on ISS Geneva 

5-7 July International Workshop on Antarctic Sea-Ice Thickness Hobart, Australia 

10-12 July CLIVAR Variability of the African Climate System (VACS) Workshop Dar es Salaam, United 

on Eastern and Southern African Climate Variability Republic of Tanzania 


17-21 July WMO Conference on Living Climate Climate Variability and Change: Espoo (Helsinki), 

Understanding the Uncertainties and Managing the Risk Finland 

28-30 July Second session of the WCRP Observations and Assimilation Panel Ispra, Italy 

4-8 September Joint Meeting of the Expert Team on Satellite Utilization and Products Geneva 

(ET-SUP) and Expert Team on Satellite Systems (ET-SAT) 

7-13 September Regional Association III (South America)—14th session Lima, Peru 

18-22 September Tenth WMO Symposium on Education and Training, “Meteorological Nanjing, China 

and Hydrological Education and Training for Disaster Prevention and 

Mitigation” 

23 September Meeting of Directors of WMO Regional Meteorological Training Nanjing, China 

Centres 

4-10 October Fifteenth International TOVS Study Conference (ITSC-XV) Matera, Italy 


16-19 October SPARC Project Scientific Steering Group—14 session Boulder, CO, USA 

28 October - Commission for Agricultural Meteorology—14th session New Delhi, India 

3 November Matera, Italy 


153

154 

MEMBERS OF THE WORLD 

METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION 

Afghanistan 

Albania 

Algeria 

Angola 

Antigua and Barbuda 

Argentina 

Armenia 

Australia 

Austria 

Azerbaijan 

Bahamas 

Bahrain 

Bangladesh 

Barbados 

Belarus 

Belgium 

Belize 

Benin 

Bhutan 

Bolivia 

Bosnia and Herzegovina 

Botswana 

Brazil 

Brunei Darussalam 

Bulgaria 

Burkina Faso 

Burundi 

Cambodia 

Cameroon 

Canada 

Cape Verde 

Central African Republic 

Chad 

Chile 

China 

Colombia 

Comoros 

Congo 

Cook Islands 

Costa Rica 

Côte d'Ivoire 

Croatia 

Cuba 

Cyprus 

Czech Republic 

Democratic People's 

Republic of Korea 

British Caribbean Territories 

French Polynesia 

Democratic Republic of 

the Congo 

Denmark 

Djibouti 

Dominica 

Dominican Republic 

Ecuador 

Egypt 

El Salvador 

Eritrea 

Estonia 

Ethiopia 

Fiji 

Finland 

France 

Gabon 

Gambia 

Georgia 

Germany 

Ghana 

Greece 

Guatemala 

Guinea 

Guinea-Bissau 

Guyana 

Haiti 

Honduras 

Hungary 

Iceland 

India 

Indonesia 

Iran, Islamic Republic of 

Iraq 

Ireland 

Israel 

Italy 

Jamaica 

Japan 

Jordan 

Kazakhstan 

Kenya 

Kiribati 

Kuwait 

Kyrgyzstan 

Lao People's Democratic 

Republic 

Latvia 

Hong Kong, China 

Macao, China 

At 31 March 2006 

STATES (181) 

TERRITORIES (6) 

Lebanon 

Lesotho 

Liberia 

Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 

Lithuania 

Luxembourg 

Madagascar 

Malawi 

Malaysia 

Maldives 

Mali 

Malta 

Mauritania 

Mauritius 

Mexico 

Micronesia, Federated 

States of 

Monaco 

Mongolia 

Morocco 

Mozambique 

Myanmar 

Namibia 

Nepal 

Netherlands 

New Zealand 

Nicaragua 

Niger 

Nigeria 

Niue 

Norway 

Oman 

Pakistan 

Panama 

Papua New Guinea 

Paraguay 

Peru 

Philippines 

Poland 

Portugal 

Qatar 

Republic of Korea 

Republic of Moldova 

Romania 

Russian Federation 

Rwanda 

Saint Lucia 

Netherlands Antilles 

and Aruba 

Samoa 

Sao Tome and Principe 

Saudi Arabia 

Senegal 

Serbia and Montenegro 

Seychelles 

Sierra Leone 

Singapore 

Slovakia 

Slovenia 

Solomon Islands 

Somalia 

South Africa 

Spain 

Sri Lanka 

Sudan 

Suriname 

Swaziland 

Sweden 

Switzerland 

Syrian Arab Republic 

Tajikistan 

Thailand 

The former Yugoslav Republic 

of Macedonia 

Togo 

Tonga 

Trinidad and Tobago 

Tunisia 

Turkey 

Turkmenistan 

Uganda 

Ukraine 

United Arab Emirates 

United Kingdom of Great 

Britain and Northern Ireland 

United Republic of Tanzania 

United States of America 

Uruguay 

Uzbekistan 

Vanuatu 

Venezuela 

Viet Nam 

Yemen 

Zambia 

Zimbabwe 

New Caledonia

www.rst.vcs.de 

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stations. After successful launch of the MTSAT satellite 

the LRIT and HRIT data are available for monitoring and 

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Based on the well-known 2met!® satellite multi-mission concept, 

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WHY NOT ADVERTISE IN THE 

WMO BULLETIN? 

With its worldwide circulation in four languages (English, French, Russian and 

Spanish), the WMO Bulletin (basic press run: 6 500) is an ideal advertising medium 

for all items of interest to meteorologists and hydrologists and scientists working in 

related fields. In addition to its distribution within the Meteorological and 

Hydrometeorological Services of all Members, the Bulletin is sent to the Services of 

those few remaining countries which do not yet belong to the Organization. It is 

also sent to various government departments, universities and scientific societies, 

as well as a wide circle of other relevant bodies and individual subscribers. 

If you place the same advertisement in four successive issues of the WMO Bulletin, 

you will receive a discount of 25 per cent! 

To find out more about advertising in the WMO Bulletin, please contact the 

Editorial Assistant, WMO Bulletin, World Meteorological Organization, 

Case postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. 

Tel.: (+41) (0)22 730 82 86. Fax: (+41) (0)22 730 80 24. 

E-mail: myabi@wmo.int

WHY NOT ADVERTISE IN THE 

WMO BULLETIN? 

With its worldwide circulation in four languages (English, French, Russian and 

Spanish), the WMO Bulletin (basic press run: 6 500) is an ideal advertising medium 

for all items of interest to meteorologists and hydrologists and scientists working in 

related fields. In addition to its distribution within the Meteorological and 

Hydrometeorological Services of all Members, the Bulletin is sent to the Services of 

those few remaining countries which do not yet belong to the Organization. It is 

also sent to various government departments, universities and scientific societies, 

as well as a wide circle of other relevant bodies and individual subscribers. 

If you place the same advertisement in four successive issues of the WMO Bulletin, 

you will receive a discount of 25 per cent! 

To find out more about advertising in the WMO Bulletin, please contact the 

Editorial Assistant, WMO Bulletin, World Meteorological Organization, 

Case postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. 

Tel.: (+41) (0)22 730 82 86. Fax: (+41) (0)22 730 80 24. 

E-mail: myabi@wmo.int

CD-ROM 

The CD-Rom contains (in pdf format): 

• WMO Bulletin 55 (2) – April 2006 

• MeteoWorld – February 2006 and April 2006 

• World Meteorological Day 2006—Preventing and 

mitigating natural disasters: brochure (WMO-No. 993) 

with foldout on natural hazards and poster

World Meteorological Organization 

7bis, avenue de la Paix 

Case postale No. 2300 

CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland 

Tel: + 41 22 730 81 11 

Fax: + 41 22 730 81 81 

E-mail: wmo@wmo.int 

Web: http://www.wmo.int ISSN 0042-9767

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