Environmental Criteria for Hydropower in the Mekong Region - WWF

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The Current Status of Environmental Criteria for Hydropower Development in the Mekong Region: A litterature compilation Table 3 Generation Supply Mix in the GMS Total Generation (GWH) Hydro Coal Gas Oil Nuclear Biomass Other Imports Exports Cambodia 0.0% ? ? Lao PDR 100.0% 99.8% 0.2% Thailand 100.0% 6.2% 15.8% 73.0% 2.7% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0% 2.1% 0.3% Viet Nam. 100.0% 46.4% 17.7% 29.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Myanmar 100.0% 36.2% 0.0% 57.0% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% China(all) 100.0% 14.9% 79.4% 0.3% 3.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Note: 2003 IEA statistics for Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar and All China Others data extracted from ADB country reports Installed capacity would give different percentages to energy shares, but energy is more important Because of the small load in Cambodia individual projects change the % rapidly If all of PRC is included, which is the primary power market for projects in Yunnan, the share of fossil fuels in the generation mix rises above 82%. Some GMS countries can readily choose which supply-side options they develop. Yunnan Province possesses large deposits of thermal coal (roughly 20% of PRC’s estimated reserves, but with a high sulphur content), as well as considerable hydropower potential, roughly 20% of the total theoretical potential in PRC. In Cambodia and Laos, hydropower is the main indigenous energy resource. If not hydropower, they must choose to import electricity from PRC or Viet Nam, or import fossil fuels to run thermal stations for conventional grid supply. In Viet Nam, the 12,000 MW of new hydropower provisionally identified in power sector expansion by 2020, will leave the country (the most populous of the GMS countries at 80 million people, counting Yunnan as PRC), with roughly the same percentage of hydropower in the generation mix as now. This is due to the parallel investments being made in coal, gas and oil-based generation. Viet Nam has also arranged to import hydropower power from Lao PDR (starting in 2008) and Yunnan later to cover deficits in load growth. Table 3 also indicates the recent volatility in international oil markets (e.g. prices above $US70/bbl) that have impacted on the cost of power in Cambodia and Myanmar most severely. The subregional supply-side mix is relevant to framing environment criteria for hydropower development in the GMS in the sense that regional and global level environment criteria are necessary in addition to national considerations. Governments and power planners argue that increasing the share of hydropower will yield significant, positive regional and global environment benefits (regional benefits in terms of reducing pollutant emissions like sulphur dioxide, SO2, and nitrogen oxides, NOx, impacts on regional air sheds; global benefits in respect to avoidance of 30
The Current Status of Environmental Criteria for Hydropower Development in the Mekong Region: A litterature compilation GHG emissions from coal, oil and gas). 24 Some others see these claims as attempts to justify hydropower development and they suggest a more important dimension is the regional ecosystem balances and connectivity. The dialogue suggests it is essential to recognize the implications of both climate change and regional air shed impacts in the environment criteria framework, but at the same time, the framework must incorporate the biodiversity conservation aspects to paint a more comprehensive picture of regional linkages. Otherwise, the dialogue will not bridge the paradigms. Intensity of electricity use in society - Table 4 illustrates the intensity of electricity use and access in GMS countries, along with some socio-economic indicators. The latter emphasize that the largest segment of the GMS population (around 70%) lives in rural areas, and most people rely on agriculture, often at subsistence levels. They otherwise depend heavily on forest and aquatic ecosystem services for livelihoods. The proportion of the population living in absolute poverty, represented by those living on less than $1/day, ranges between 14-30%. This emphasizes that millennium development goals (MDG) targets need full reflection in power investment strategies—and linkage to the environment criteria. Table 4 also illustrates the large variation in electricity access and the low level of electricity use in GMS society (e.g. 89 kwh/person/year in Cambodia with 15% of households with electricity access versus rates of electrification above 80% in Viet Nam and PRC). The role that electricity plays in the energy economy is central to policy that governments have adopted on hydropower development. The current rates of electric utilization per capita (recognizing the distortions in per capita figures) are an order of magnitude below rates across Europe. There are highly polarized views on electricity use, which also link debate on the potential of electricity demand management and the priority placed on investing in the supply-side and demand-side measures. Although there has been positive progress made in decoupling GDP from energy intensity in recent decades, the role of electricity relative to other energy end uses has been expanding, even where overall energy intensity and GDP have been decoupled. 25 The consensus view is that modernizing the economy (through tourism or industrialization) implies maximizing the share of electricity, efficiently, while reducing fossil fuel end uses. 26 24 The SO2 and NOx emissions from thermal power generation have human health impacts, are reported to reduce agriculture productivity, and can produce locally significant ecosystem loss and social impacts associated with acid rain deposition. 25 IEA (2000) Hydropower and the Environment. It is clear that electricity utilization is much different from traditional and fossil fuel trends. The World Energy Council, IEA and Stockholm Environment Institute (Bending the Curve), and other UN organizations, all recognize that the role of electricity in human society will continue to expand significantly in the 21st century. 26 The World Energy Council, IEA, and other UN organizations, recognize the need for energy efficiency, but there are thresholds of electricity consumption where basic needs have to be met. 31
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Environmental Criteria for Hydropower in the Mekong Region - WWF

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