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Wind Hazard Risk Assessment and Management for Structures

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Chapter 2. Structural Components <strong>and</strong> <strong>Wind</strong> Directionality 16<br />

2.2 Tropical-Cyclone <strong>Wind</strong> Time Series Model<br />

2.2.1 Scope<br />

Due to the lack of historical tropical cyclone records, many advanced meteorological models<br />

have been developed to simulate wind data <strong>for</strong> various geographical regions (e.g. Powell<br />

et al., 2005; Vickery et al., 2000). They tend to be computationally expensive to solve, <strong>and</strong><br />

their solutions, typically in the <strong>for</strong>m of a two-dimensional time-dependent field, provide<br />

much more in<strong>for</strong>mation than is needed <strong>for</strong> the purpose of structural damage estimation, in<br />

particular in this study. A geographically non-specific parametric model that reasonably<br />

approximates the results of the wind field equations at a single location is judged most<br />

suitable <strong>for</strong> use in this study. Figure 2.2 indicates the methodology involved.<br />

2.2.2 Tropical Cyclone Properties<br />

First, the intensity <strong>and</strong> the spatial scale of the tropical cyclone are sampled. These are<br />

measured by three parameters: (1) the translational speed of the storm, Vt, namely the<br />

speed at which the tropical cyclone is moving along the earth surface; (2) the central<br />

pressure difference, ∆P , being the difference between atmospheric pressures at the center<br />

of the storm <strong>and</strong> at the periphery; <strong>and</strong> (3) the radius of maximum winds, Rmax, which is<br />

the distance from the storm center to the locations of maximum wind speed.<br />

Models have been suggested <strong>for</strong> the probability distributions of these parameters (Geor-<br />

giou 1985; Vickery <strong>and</strong> Twisdale 1995a). In this study, we adopt the simple probability<br />

distributions used by Iman et al. (2002), which are not specific to any geographic region;<br />

each of the three parameters (Vt, ∆P <strong>and</strong> Rmax) is characterized by a triangular distri-<br />

bution <strong>and</strong> the parameters are assumed to be statistically independent. The distributions<br />

are defined <strong>for</strong> each of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane categories 1, 3 <strong>and</strong> 5 in the study by<br />

Iman et al. (2002), according to which the parameters of the probability distributions are

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