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Other factors to consider when assessing the risk to development in island areas are
the potential impact from hurricane storm surge and sea level rise. Studies of storm
surge by NOAA show that predicting storm surge is a complex series of factors
dependent on a particular location. The wave height of a hurricane storm surge is
sensitive to the “slightest changes in storm intensity, forward speed, size (radius of
maximum winds-RMW), angle of approach to the coast, central pressure (minimal
contribution in comparison to the wind), and the shape and characteristics of coastal
features such as bays and estuaries.” However, one key factor is the width and
slope of the continental shelf, which can double the size of a storm surge depending
on the location. For example, an 8 or 9 foot storm surge where the continental shelf
drops off quickly like Miami Beach, Florida could translate to a 20 feet high storm
surge along the Louisiana coastline where there is a very wide and shallow
continental shelf. One of the characteristics of Mustang and North Padre Island is a
moderately sloping drop off that could magnify the storm surge height. 6
Figure 10: Water Levels at Bob Hall Pier 1992 - 2012
6 NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Storm Surge Overview: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/
Revised Draft Nueces County / Corpus Christi Erosion Response Plan
May 1, 2012 Page 12