Lead Human Exposure and Health Risk Assessments for Selected ...

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1 • GSD reflecting inter-individual variability in blood Pb levels: A GSD is used to reflect 2 inter-individual variability for blood Pb levels in groups of similarly-exposed children 3 (i.e., within each exposure zone of a case study area). The GSD is combined with the 4 central tendency blood Pb level estimates to generate a distribution of blood Pb levels for 5 the group of children located in each exposure zone. 6 7 The step-wise procedure used to generate population-level blood Pb distributions for each 8 of the point source case studies is illustrated in Figure 3-1, with the information described in the 9 bullets above recognized as input data. 10 Several points related to implementation of this procedure are noted. For this assessment, 11 50,000 simulated individuals were generated for each point source case study in order to insure 12 that the population-level blood Pb distributions generated met target stability goals (see 13 Appendix M, Section M.2.2). 6 This simulation count represents a higher total child count than 14 actually is associated with either study area. Using a higher number of simulated individuals was 15 necessary, however, to generate blood Pb distributions with "stable" higher-end exposure 16 estimates. If simulations matching the actual population count at each case study had been 17 conducted, the distributions that would have resulted would have been "unstable" at higher 18 percentiles. It is important to note, however, that child population count estimates for individual 19 percentiles (Section 3.4) have been scaled to reflect the actual child count associated with each 20 21 study area. 6 The analysis of simulation stability focused on the general urban case study and demonstrated that even the highest population percentiles generated for this analysis (99.9th percentile) were relatively stable with coefficients of variation of less than 3% for total IQ loss estimates. July 2007 3-20 Draft – Do Not Quote or Cite
1 Figure 3-1. Procedure for generating population blood Pb distributions for point source 2 case studies. 3 Input distributions and datasets used in the Monte Carlo-based population-exposure modeling: modeling: • Central-tendency blood Pb level dataset: Blood Pb modeling (described in Section 3.2.1) generates a central-tendency blood Pb level for each exposure zone (e.g., block, or blockgroup) within each study area (results dimensioned on blood metric and blood Pb model). • Demographic dataset: The child count (children
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Lead Human Exposure and Health Risk
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DISCLAIMER This document has been r
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comment. A final version of this do
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2.4 ANALYTICAL APPROACH ...........
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List of Figures Figure 1-1. Princip
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Table 4-17. Secondary Pb smelter ca
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1 concentrations in water, soil and
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1 showing impaired neurobehavioral
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1 assessment, summarized in Section
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1 Figure 2-1. Conceptual model for
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1 2 3 4 5 6 99th and 99.5th) for a
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1 Table 4-11. Primary Pb smelter st
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1 Table 4-13. Primary Pb smelter ca
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1 Table 4-16. Secondary Pb smelter
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1 case study and national-level per
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 REFERENCES
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