SOCIOLOGY EDUCATION - American Sociological Association

390 Hirschfield
tion factors. When all the nondemographic
survey-based variables were excluded, the
impact of arrest was unchanged (O.R. = 2.53;
p = .124).
23. Variables with no independent effects
in the logit (p > .40) were dropped when
doing so increased the predictive accuracy of
the model. Following convention, the 15 final
predictors included two (parental monitoring
and perceived respect from school staff) that
are more salient in treatment selection than
outcome models. Among the nonarrested
cases in the early dropout analysis, 30.9 percent
exhibited an estimated risk of arrest of
less than .01 compared to only 4 percent of
the arrested cases. Thanks to the large number
of cases in the comparison group, the PS
of 52 percent of the 203 matched arrestees
differs from that of their 203 matches by less
than .001. Only 30 percent of the cases differ
by more than .01 (80.5 percent of which are
in the upper tertile). Year 2 arrestees made up
only 13 percent of the matched comparisons.
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