Supporting documents - Renfrewshire Council

Proposed Mixed Use 

Development, Braehead 

Socio-Economic Impact Report 

January 2013

3366706v3 

Proposed Mixed Use Development, Braehead : Socio-Economic Impact Report 

Contents 

Executive Summary 1 

1.0 Introduction 1 

Proposed Development 1 

Methodology 2 

2.0 Planning Policy Context 3 

Glasgow and The Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan 3 

The Renfrewshire Local Development Plan 6 

Conclusions 7 

3.0 Baseline Conditions 8 

Area of Impact 8 

Socio-Economic Conditions 8 

Local Labour Market Conditions 11 

Existing Economic Contribution of Braehead 12 

Retail Facilities 13 

4.0 Potential Impacts 14 

Introduction 14 

Construction Impacts 14 

Operational Impacts 15 

Maximising the Impacts 22 

5.0 Wider Economic Role & Attraction of Investment 25 

Origins of the Braehead Shopping Centre 25 

Catalyst for Regeneration 26 

Conclusions 27 

6.0 Conclusions 28 

7.0 Abbreviations 30 

8.0 References 31

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Figures3 

Figure 1.1 Braehead Indicative Masterplan - 2025 Vision 2 

Figure 3.1 Main Impact Area and Sub-Regional Context 8 

Figure 3.2 Indices of Multiple Deprivation - Main Impact Area 10 

Tables3 

Table 4.1 Job Generation of Proposed Development 16 

Table 4.2 Retail Employment Generation by Occupation 17 

Table 4.3 Net Additional Employment 19 

Table 4.4 Operational GVA Impacts (Net Additional) 19 

Table 4.5 Gross Employment Related to scheme in the Impact Area 20 

Table 4.6 Gross Employment Related to scheme in the Region 20 

Appendices3 

Appendix 1 Socio Economic Data

Braehead Shopping Centre Extension : Socio-Economic Impact Report 

PROPOSED MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT, BRAEHEAD. 

This Socio-Economic Impact Report has been prepared in support of a planning 

application submitted on behalf of Capital Shopping Centres PLC at King’s Inch 

Road / King’s Inch Drive, Braehead, Renfrew, G51 4BN. The planning 

application seeks planning permission in principle for the following: 

Mixed use development comprising Class 1 (retail use), Class 2 (use for 

financial, professional and other services), Class 3 (food and drink use), Class 

7 (hotel use), Class 11 (assembly and leisure use) including an events arena, 

and other ancillary uses; construction of transport interchanges and new 

route for Fastlink bus service, car parking, roads and accesses, footpaths and 

covered walkways, public realm works (including provision of open space and 

civic square) together with landscaping, all associated works and necessary 

infrastructure; and demolition of some existing buildings to enable the 

proposed development to proceed. 

The schedule below details the submitted plans in relation to this application: 

Plan Reference Plan Title Scale 

CTM-XX-00-15-1100-01 Location plan 

1:5000 @ A3/1:2500 

@ A1 

CTM-XX-00-15-1001-06 

Site Plan / Proposed Building 

Plots 

1:5000 @ A3 and 

1:2500 @ A1 

CTM-XX-00-15-1002-06 

Site Plan/Indicative Vehicular 

Access Locations 

1:5000 @ A3 and 

1:2500 @ A1 

CTM-A-00-15-1051-05 

Zone A / Horizontal Limits of 

Deviation 

1:2500 @ A3 and 

1:1250 @ A1 

CTM-A-00-15-1053-08 

Zone A / Vertical Limits of 

Deviation 

1:2500 @ A3 and 

1:1250 @ A1 

CTM-B-00-15-1055-04 

Zone B / Horizontal Limits of 

Deviation 

1:2500 @ A3 and 

1:1250 @ A1 

CTM-B-00-15-1057-06 

Scale Zone B / Vertical Limits of 

Deviation 

1:2500 @ A3 and 

1:1250 @ A1 

CTM-XX-00-15-3000-03 Demolition and Alterations 

1:5000 @ A3 and 

1:2500 @ A1 

CTM-XX-00-21-2001-05 Site Sections Not to Scale @ A3 

Further illustrative and indicative plans and information is also provided within 

the Design and Access Statement accompanying the planning application. 

3366706v3

This document is formatted for double sided printing. 

© Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2012. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. 

All Rights Reserved. 

Registered Office: 

14 Regent's Wharf 

All Saints Street 

London N1 9RL 

All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of 

Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A

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Executive Summary 

This report provides an assessment of the potential socio-economic impacts of 

the proposed mixed use development at Braehead, Renfrewshire. 

The scheme comprises up to 41,000m 2 of new retail floorspace, 3,100m 2 of 

financial/professional and/or new food and drink floorspace, a 200-bed hotel, 

and a 5,000 seat events arena for sports, concerts and exhibitions, together 

with new civic square and spaces. The proposed development would also 

include a new integrated transport interchange, car parking and associated 

access and landscaping works. 

The development will generate a wide range of direct, indirect and catalytic 

economic effects, both quantifiable and non-quantifiable. These effects will be 

spread over a wide area, but are likely to be focused on the local authority 

areas of Renfrewshire and Glasgow City which is taken to be the main impact 

area. These effects are summarised below. 

Construction Impacts Operational Impacts Wider Impacts 

2,310 person-years (231 FTE) 

construction jobs 

£10.6 million GVA generated 

by construction jobs 

46 FTE indirect construction 

jobs supported in supply chain 

2,650 direct operational jobs 

on-site 

Annual Annual GVA GVA uplift uplift of of £45 

£45 

million million from from operational operational jobs 

jobs 

Supplier Supplier & & wage wage expenditure 

expenditure 

will will support support 400 400 ‘spin-off’ 

‘spin-off’ 

jobs jobs (800 (800 in in Scotland) 

Scotland) 

Capital Capital expenditure expenditure of of £200 

£200 

million 

million 

Improvements Improvements to to local 

local 

transport transport and and public public realm 

realm 

Stimulate Stimulate further further investment 

investment 

and and economic economic activity activity in in the 

the 

local local area 

area 

Braehead has acted as a major driver of the wider regeneration of the Clyde 

waterfront since its completion in the late 1990s, delivering new facilities and 

infrastructure and accelerating the renewal of a former derelict industrial area. 

The proposed development will cement Braehead’s position as a focus for 

growth, anchor further investment, and support the diversification of the centre 

in support of its role as a new Strategic Town Centre in Renfrewshire.

Proposed Mixed Use Development, Braehead: Socio-Economic Impact Report 

1.0 Introduction 

1.1 This Socio-Economic Impact Report has been produced on behalf of Capital 

Shopping Centres plc (CSC) by Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP). It assesses 

the socio-economic impacts arising from the proposed mixed use development 

at Braehead, in particular: 

1 how the proposed development is likely to impact upon employment 

during its construction and operation in terms of the number, type and 

status of jobs in the local labour market; 

2 the identification of any ‘spin off’ effects of the proposed development in 

terms of stimulating investment or other economic activity; 

3 consideration of the wider benefit to the economy that the new retail and 

leisure facilities will provide; and 

4 how the current proposals will continue the process of regeneration that 

have taken place over the past 15 years since development at Braehead 

was initiated. 

Proposed Development 

1.2 The proposal is for a mixed use development at the existing Braehead 

Shopping Centre comprising up to 41,000m 2 of new retail floorspace, 3,100m 2 

of financial/professional and/or new food and drink floorspace, a 200-bed 

hotel, and a 5, 000 seat events arena for sports, concerts and exhibitions, and 

a new civic square. The proposed development also includes a new integrated 

transport interchange, car parking and associated access and landscaping 

works. 

1.3 Braehead lies on the south bank of the River Clyde, just north of Junction 26 of 

the M8 motorway and some 5km north east of the town of Paisley. It forms part 

of an 80 ha area of former industrial land along the riverbank which continues 

to represent one of the largest strategic regeneration locations in Scotland. The 

Masterplan for the wider development of Braehead is presented in Figure 1.1. 

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Figure 1.1 Braehead Indicative Masterplan - 2025 Vision 

Source: Capital Shopping Centres / Chapman Taylor 

Methodology 

1.4 The report first establishes the policy context and baseline position in terms of 

local economic and social conditions before considering the potential impacts 

of the proposed development on the local and regional economy. The impact 

assessment is based on the proposed development for which planning 

permission is sought as described above, rather than the wider masterplan 

area as illustrated in Figure 1.1. 

1.5 The assessment draws upon published Government and local authority 

statistics, and social, economic and community strategy documents relating to 

the area. The latest available data from the 2001 Census, 2008 Annual 

Business Inquiry (ABI), 2011 Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) 

and other published national statistics have been used. Supporting data is 

included in Appendix 1. 

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2.0 Planning Policy Context 

2.1 This section provides a review of the policy context as it relates to socioeconomic 

issues and draws on the accompanying Planning Statement prepared 

by RDPC. The development plan for the Braehead area consists of the Glasgow 

and The Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan (SDP) and the Renfrewshire 

Local Plan. The Local Plan was adopted in March 2006 and will shortly be 

replaced by the new proposed Renfrewshire Local Development Plan (LDP). The 

SDP was approved by Scottish Ministers on 29th May 2012, and therefore 

represents the up-to-date strategic planning context for the area. However the 

development plan will not be fully up to date until the proposed LDP is adopted. 

Glasgow and The Clyde Valley Strategic Development 

Plan 

2.2 The SDP consists of several tiers of policy, starting with the ‘Spatial Vision’ 

which in turn leads to the ‘Spatial Development Strategy’. Proposals are tested 

against the Spatial Development Strategy to establish whether or not they 

support the strategy and therefore the delivery of the Spatial Vision. 

2.3 Core components of the Spatial Development Strategy are several geographical 

areas in which a particular focus on investment and regeneration is to be 

encouraged. The Clyde Waterfront is one such area, where it is intended that 

there should be a focus on mixed use developments, including the following 

uses and functions: economic activity, housing, tourism, fixed and green 

infrastructure, culture, leisure, education, health and public transport. The 

Clyde Waterfront is regarded as a sustainable location for these uses and 

activities. 

2.4 Paragraph 4.8 of the SDP describes the Clyde Waterfront area in the following 

terms: 

The Clyde Waterfront is a key component of the SDS model and is a major longterm 

mixed use regeneration and urban community restructuring project. It is 

designed to revitalise the River Clyde section of the Development Corridor; 

reconnect its communities with the river and provide a new central development 

focus for the city-region. It is the most advanced project in development terms of 

the SDS, and whilst significant progress has been achieved, e.g. Pacific Quay, the 

Exhibition Centre campus, Glasgow Harbour, Renfrew Riverside, the scale of the 

challenge remains strategically significant. 

2.5 Of all the areas listed as examples of where significant progress has been 

achieved, the Renfrew Riverside area – centred on Braehead – is the one which 

displays by far the greatest range of achievements in terms of sheer scale of 

urban renewal and environmental transformation, from a derelict contaminated 

power station site, disused railway sidings and run-down factories, to a thriving 

new business and residential community, with Braehead’s retail, leisure and 

community facilities at its heart. Without the success achieved at Braehead, 

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the strategy for regeneration on the Clyde Waterfront would still be at a 

relatively early stage. Similarly, without assurances as to the future long-term 

success of Braehead as a thriving economic catalyst, the next phase of 

regeneration of the Clyde Waterfront would be severely hindered. 

2.6 The Spatial Development Strategy of the SDP includes five ‘Spatial 

Frameworks’, relating to competitiveness, environmental action, sustainable 

communities, infrastructure, and strategic development priorities. As an 

introduction to the section which addresses the issue of sustainable 

communities, paragraph 4.64 of the SDP explains that the future economic 

growth and quality of life in the city-region depends on being able to meet basic 

demands and needs for the community, such as ensuring easy access to good 

quality housing and shopping facilities. These needs should be met in the 

most sustainably accessible locations, predominantly on brownfield land. This 

means focusing on regeneration and renewal of existing communities, and 

investing in the urban centres which are at the core of existing communities. 

2.7 Paragraph 4.96 of the SDP notes that the traditional role of the urban centre is 

usually characterised by their retail and civic functions, but that the role and 

function of many of the urban centres in the SDP area are changing and 

evolving in response to retail market demand and trends in society change. 

Many urban centres have become multi-dimensional in nature, with multiple 

roles, although each centre tends to have identifiable dominant roles which vary 

from centre to centre. Paragraph 4.97 identifies Braehead as being dominant 

in regeneration and retailing. 

2.8 Paragraph 4.98 explains that certain urban centres in the SDP area have been 

identified as having key strategic roles, and it is these centres which have been 

included in a ‘Network of Strategic Centres’ which are regarded as central to 

delivering the SDP’s Spatial Vision through its Spatial Development Strategy. 

These centres have a mixed use focus which consists of the following uses, 

features and activities: retail, culture, education, leisure, health, public realm, 

local governance, and public transport. Paragraph 4.99 stresses that Glasgow 

City Centre is at the apex of this network of strategic centres, and that its longterm 

future is fundamental to the economic well-being of the city-region. 

2.9 At the same time, while continuing investment and modernisation is required in 

the City Centre, the wider network of strategic centres beyond the City Centre 

“equally needs to be protected and enhanced” (paragraph 4.101), with a 

“channelling of investment to secure their respective roles, improve their quality 

of offer, their diversity, their public realm and environment, and their continuing 

sustainable accessibility”. 

2.10 Schedule 12 in the SDP sets out the Network of Strategic Centres, and lists 

their roles and functions and the strategy for managing change. Braehead is 

one of 23 strategic centres identified in the network. 

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SDP Approach to Braehead 

2.11 Under the heading ‘Current Planning Status / Dominant Roles and Functions’, 

Schedule 12 of the SDP describes Braehead as a ‘commercial centre with 

retail, leisure, commercial, employment and business’. Under the heading of 

‘Challenges’, the SDP identifies the need to diversify and roles and functions of 

the centre in support of the Clyde Waterfront regeneration initiative, with the 

aim of incorporating a range of functions including residential, civic, and 

transport and leisure sectors. The purpose of this development of Braehead is 

stated as being in order to “maintain the sustainability of the centre and wider 

regeneration programme, thereby contributing to a Strategic Development 

Priority – Clyde Waterfront”. The identified future action for Braehead is to bring 

forward a masterplan for a further regeneration of the centre and wider 

environment. 

2.12 Thus the vision for Braehead is to maintain its role of regenerating the 

surrounding area, as it has been doing for 15 years, with its retail, leisure, 

commercial, employment and business roles broadened to include residential 

and civic functions and expansion of transport and leisure facilities. In reality 

the residential role for Braehead is already well established, with more than 

1,000 homes recently built in the vicinity to the north and south of Kings Inch 

Road, and many more planned and consented. 

2.13 Background Report 11 – Retailing and Town Centres – (BR11) is one of a 

number of background papers which were prepared to support the Main Issues 

Report of the SDP. Subsequently a shorter version of the same document, 

renumbered BR14, was prepared to explain in more detail the policy 

approaches adopted by the SDP and to provide additional technical background 

information. These background papers were submitted to Scottish Ministers 

with the proposed SDP so that Ministers could have a full understanding of the 

evolution and intentions of the Plan. 

2.14 BR11 explains the background to the policy approach adopted for Braehead. 

BR11 notes that Braehead is the second-largest centre in the plan area, after 

Glasgow City Centre. In section 4.16 is states, “The role and function of 

Braehead is of vital importance. This commercial centre forms its own extensive 

catchment and draws expenditure from much of Glasgow and the Clyde Valley, 

and beyond. It is clearly of a strategic scale, but as a commercial centre it would 

be accorded less sequential priority than identified town centres. This issue 

needs to be addressed”. 

2.15 Having recognised the policy anomaly affecting Braehead, whereby the secondlargest 

strategic centre in the SDP area would have a planning status 

subordinate to many smaller and less important centres, BR11 continues by 

examining three possibilities for a policy resolution for Braehead. The three 

options discussed are: 

1 designation as a strategic town centre; 

2 having equivalence to other strategic centres but remaining as a 

commercial centre; or 

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3 remaining as a commercial centre and being subordinate to other 

strategic centres. 

2.16 Section 4.16 of BR11 reaches the conclusion that, “the most appropriate option 

is to recognise Braehead as an evolving town centre in a relationship with Paisley 

town centre, which fulfils a wider range of town centre functions and which has a 

distinctly different retail offer. This would allow the Local Development Plan to 

frame this policy and to support investment in Braehead on the basis of the 

relationship with Paisley”. 

The Renfrewshire Local Development Plan 

2.17 On 20 th November 2012 Renfrewshire Council approved its proposed Local 

Development Plan (replacing the previous 2006 Local Plan) and agreed to 

commence public consultation on the Plan in January 2013. The proposed LDP 

identifies a network of centres comprising Strategic Town Centres, Core Town 

Centres, Local Service Centres and Retail Warehouse Parks. Paisley and 

Braehead are identified as Strategic Town Centres at the top of the hierarchy. 

The proposed Plan states that Renfrewshire Council recognises that providing 

the policy backing of town centre status for Braehead is very important if the 

aim of the Strategic Development Plan for regeneration on the Clyde Waterfront 

is to be achieved. 

2.18 The proposed LDP comments: “There is a need for Braehead to continue to 

develop its town centre character, to reflect its identification as a new town 

centre in Renfrewshire. The LDP establishes a framework for a masterplan for 

Braehead. This spatial strategy connects Braehead to its adjacent communities, 

improves accessibility around and through the centre, enhances its commercial 

and business functions and delivers substantive enhancements to its public 

realm. All of this should aim to meet an overall objective of creating a modern 

and exemplary town centre environment”. 

2.19 As regards new retail development at Braehead, the proposed LDP recognises 

that the implication of its new town centre status is to allow further retail 

development, and comments: “There is a need for Braehead as a place to 

develop a town centre rather than shopping mall character and this must have a 

bearing on all proposals that emerge in the future”. 

2.20 Figure 11 in the proposed LDP summarises the strategy for each centre in the 

Network of Centres. It describes Braehead’s role and function as the “principal 

retail centre within Renfrewshire with strong supporting leisure, commercial and 

business uses”. Under the heading ‘Challenges / Opportunities’, the LDP 

states that the aim will be to “develop the town centre character, creating a 

sense of place and increasing connectivity between Braehead and Renfrew while 

developing a hub for public transport”. It states that there is a “significant 

opportunity for development of town centre uses that will continue to stimulate 

and complete the wider Clyde Waterfront regeneration”. 

2.21 Thus the overriding theme of the proposed LDP regarding Braehead is to confer 

town centre status and support development which will reinforce and extend its 

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central role as Renfrewshire’s primary shopping destination and key driver for 

regeneration of the Clyde Waterfront. 

Conclusions 

2.22 Braehead has been a primary driver for economic regeneration and urban 

renewal in Renfrewshire for 15 years. The substantial benefits which it has 

delivered during this period, and the essential role which it plays in meeting 

retail, leisure, employment and community needs, have been recognised in 

planning policy at strategic and local levels, which now supports further 

investment and regeneration at Braehead. 

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3.0 Baseline Conditions 

3.1 This section establishes the economic context, and any existing socio-economic 

impacts of the development site and its surroundings. It also defines the scope 

for the assessment of socio-economic effects by identifying the area likely to be 

most strongly affected by the development proposals, against which any future 

impacts can be measured. 

Area of Impact 

3.2 The area in which economic effects are most strongly felt will correspond to the 

labour catchment area of Braehead – the area which the majority of the workers 

based at the Centre live. Based on 2001 Census workplace data, some 86.3% 

of workers employed in Renfrewshire live in the local authorities of 

Renfrewshire or Glasgow City. More recent data, taken from the 2008 Annual 

Population Survey shows a slight decrease to this figure, with approximately 

73.5% of workers employed in Renfrewshire living within Renfrewshire or 

Glasgow City (see Tables 1 and 2 in Appendix 1). These local authorities have 

been taken to define the ‘labour catchment area’, or primary area of economic 

impact of Braehead, outlined in Figure 3.1. 

Figure 3.1 Main Impact Area and Sub-Regional Context 

Socio-Economic Conditions 

3.3 Key economic characteristics and trends in this labour catchment area are 

summarised below, with supporting statistical data contained in Appendix 1. 

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Economic Context 

3.4 The residential population of the local area in 2010 amounted to 763,100 of 

which 170,300 were resident in Renfrewshire (22.3%). 1 The population of 

Renfrewshire in 2001 was 172,900 and has fallen slightly by 2,600 people 

(1.5%) in the period 2001-2010; this compares with the positive growth rate for 

Scotland and Great Britain of 3.1% and 5.3% respectively. 2 

3.5 Total employment in the labour catchment area fell by 19,340 (4.1%) in the 

period 2001-2011 (Table 3, Appendix 1). The greatest decrease in the 

percentage of employment was in Renfrewshire (11.6%) followed by Glasgow 

City with a decrease of 9,831 people (2.5%). 

3.6 The employment structure of the labour catchment area is dominated by the 

service sector, which accounts for 87.9% (at 2011) of employment, a rise of 3% 

from 2001. However, this growth is below the average for Great Britain at 

approximately 4.6% over the same time period (Table 4, Appendix 1). Despite 

an increase in the proportion of service sector workers in the labour catchment 

area, (largely due to the workforce of other sectors shrinking) the quantity of 

service sector employees actually fell by 2,546 (0.6%) between 2001 and 

2011. Within the service sector, the retail sector accounts for 13.5% of total 

employment, this is lower than the Scotland (“Regional”) and GB averages 

(14.7% and 16.1% respectively). Health (15.7%), property and business 

activities (14.6%) and financial intermediation (12.1%) represent the three 

other largest sectors of employment. 

3.7 The most significant sector decline in employment terms has been 

manufacturing which decreased by 37.5% in the period 2001-2011, reducing its 

share of the workforce from 9.2% to 6% (Table 4 and 5, Appendix 1). Public 

administration and defence experienced an 18.8% decline in employment, from 

7.7% of the workforce in 2001 to 6.5% in 2011. This reflects the trend for 

Scotland as a whole with a national decline in manufacturing of 41.2% in the 

same period; however public administration saw a much smaller decrease in 

the proportion of its workforce at 5.5%. The fastest growth sector was financial 

and insurance, scientific and technical (57.2%) increasing its share of the 

workforce from 6.7% to 12.1%, this is however well below the average for 

Scotland which saw an increase of 103.5% in the same period. Although 

employment within wholesale and retail trades fell by 12.8% within the local 

area over the last decade, nationally this sector experienced a decline in 

employment of 15.2%. 

3.8 In the period 1997-2007, the number of VAT-registered firms increased by 

13.7% across the labour catchment as a whole, a similar rate to Scotland 

(15.5%) but below the average for Great Britain (21.3%). The growth rate in 

Renfrewshire alone was 17.3% (Table 6, Appendix 1). 

1 Mid-year population estimates, ONS 

2 Does not account for regional boundary changes 

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Deprivation 

3.9 Braehead is located on the border between the local authorities of Glasgow City 

and Renfrewshire. The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009 provides a 

measure of multiple deprivation at small areas called datazones, much smaller 

than a local authority, based on indicators such as income, employment, 

health, education and crime. 

3.10 While much of Renfrewshire experiences relatively low levels of deprivation, 

significant pockets of deprivation exist within wards to the east of the local 

authority adjoining Glasgow City, close to both Paisley and Braehead. 

Approximately eight of these datazones appear in the top 5% of the most 

deprived areas in Scotland. 

3.11 Of the 694 datazones marked by this index in Glasgow City, approximately 325 

(47%) of them appear in the top 20% of the most deprived areas in Scotland, 

with 14 from the top 20 located in Glasgow City. The ranking represents an 

improvement on the 2004 SIMD whereby 17 of the top 20 most deprived areas 

in Scotland were found in Glasgow City including the entire top ten. In 2004, 

404 (58%) datazones out of 694 appeared in the top 20% of the most deprived 

areas in Scotland. 

Figure 3.2 Indices of Multiple Deprivation - Main Impact Area 

Source: SIMD 2009 

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Economic Developments 

3.12 The Clyde Waterfront Area where Braehead is located has a variety of 

developments either in the planning process, under construction or recently 

completed. Some of the major developments are highlighted below: 

a Junction 26: The development at Junction 26 will take place on a nine 

acre site and consists of proposals for a hotel, residential and further 

commercial uses to support and build on the success of Scotland’s first 

Infiniti car dealership and newly completed Costa Coffee Drive Thru store 

which have been delivered to date. 

b Situated next to the shopping centre is Renfrew Riverside which includes 

the Ferry Village residential development of more than 2,000 new homes 

and Riverside Braehead Business Park. 

c Royal Ordnance Site, Bishopton: the former Royal Ordnance site at 

Bishopton is one of the largest brownfield site regeneration projects in 

the UK. In partnership with Renfrewshire Council and the Scottish 

Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), site owner BAE Systems is driving 

a multi-million pound transformation over the next 15 years. Approval has 

been granted for a mixed use development comprising 2,500 units of 

housing, 150,000m2 of commercial and employment space within a 

business park, along with associated community facilities and local 

services. Around 4,000 full and part-time employment opportunities are 

expected to be created through the construction phases and operation of 

the planned commercial businesses. 

Local Labour Market Conditions 

3.13 The level of local claimant unemployment is relatively high, with approximately 

28,810 claimants across the labour catchment area in September 2012. Long 

term unemployment, defined by the proportion of the resident population 

claiming JSA over 12 months, is marginally higher than the average for Scotland 

(1.1%), with Glasgow City recording the highest rate of long term unemployment 

(1.7%) followed by Renfrewshire (1.4%). 

3.14 Among claimant unemployment workers in the labour catchment area, the most 

sought after occupations were elementary (31.5%, for example cleaners, 

labourers, refuse workers, food preparation etc) and sales and customer 

service occupations (28%, for example retail assistants). This accounts for 

greater than half of all jobs sought by claimants in the labour catchment area 

and broadly reflects national trends (Table 8, Appendix 1). 

3.15 Actual levels of unemployment are likely to be higher than claimant 

unemployment, as some residents opt not to register for out-of-work benefits. 

The unemployment rate within both Renfrewshire (9.3%) and Glasgow City 

(10.8%) exceeded the regional (7.9%) and national (8.1%) averages in June 

2012 (the most recent data available) (Table 8, Appendix 1). 

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3.16 The labour catchment area has a very weak local labour market with 7.8 

claimant unemployment workers per unfilled job centre vacancy. This is higher 

than the ratios for Scotland (5.1) and for GB (3.9) (Table 9, Appendix 1). The 

problem is most acute in Glasgow City (8.0). 

3.17 Average FTE wage levels in Renfrewshire are slightly (0.6%) above the national 

average (Table 11, Appendix 1). This contrasts with Glasgow City which has FTE 

weekly earnings of £460 per week, 8.5% below the national average. 

3.18 The labour force within the labour catchment area displays a wide disparity of 

occupation skill levels. Relatively low skilled workers are indicated through the 

higher proportion of elementary (13.1%) and sales and customer service 

occupations (9.5%) compared to Scotland (11.5%, 9.2% respectively) (Table 12, 

Appendix 1). Administrative occupations in the labour catchment area (10.6%) 

largely match the proportion seen in Scotland 10.9% and GB 11%. On the other 

hand, there are some high skilled groups in the labour catchment area 

including professional occupations (21.4%) which exceed the Scottish and GB 

averages (19% and 19.1%). However, fewer people work as managers/senior 

officials (7.6%) or associate professionals or in technical roles (12.9%) than 

seen in the average for Scotland (8.3% and 12.9%) or GB (10.1% and 14%) 

respectively. 

3.19 This disparity is also reflected in workforce skills. Both Renfrewshire and 

Glasgow City have a higher proportion of residents with NVQ4 or higher 

qualifications than the average for Scotland and Great Britain. For example, this 

proportion in Glasgow City is 7.2% higher than the national average at 40.1%. 

At the same time, the labour catchment area also has higher than national 

average proportion of residents with no qualifications. This is particularly the 

case within Glasgow City, where 16.6% of residents have no qualifications 

compared with a national average of 10.6% and an average for Scotland of 

11.6% (Table 13, Appendix 1). 

Existing Economic Contribution of Braehead 

3.20 Braehead, one of Scotland’s leading shopping destinations, makes a significant 

contribution to the local and regional economy. A recent report 3 commissioned 

by CSC and undertaken by NLP assessed the existing economic contribution of 

the development, and identified that: 

approximately 6,720 (4,620 FTE) jobs are directly supported at Braehead 

through the retail, catering, leisure and other tenants that occupy the 

Centre, representing around 9% of all jobs in Renfrewshire district; 

CSC and its partners employ just under 140 staff to support the day-today 

running of the centre; 

3 The Economic Contribution of Braehead Shopping Centre, Glasgow, NLP December 2012 

P12 3366706v3


between them, these employees generate just over £100 million Gross 

Value Added (GVA) per year to the local economy; and 

a further 1,900 indirect jobs linked to Braehead are supported across 

Scotland. 

3.21 It also identifies that CSC spend on average £4 million each year on ongoing 

capital expenditure (management, upgrade, maintenance and refurbishment 

work) at Braehead, in turn supporting further employment, expenditure and 

economic activity in the local area. Last year (2011), CSC and its tenants 

generated nearly £16 million of business rate revenue. 

3.22 Of the 6,720 direct jobs supported by Braehead’s retail and leisure tenants, 

approximately 550 (360 FTE) are estimated to be accommodated within the 

retail floorspace 4 that will be demolished and reprovided as part of the 

extension development. 

Retail Facilities 

3.23 Braehead Shopping Centre and Retail Park provides over one million square 

feet (circa 110,000m 2 ) of retail and leisure floorspace over two floors, and is 

anchored by Marks and Spencer, Primark and BHS. The centre accommodates 

125 units and attracts around 17 million visitors each year. 

4 80,902 sqft at Primark and 19,332 sqft at New Look 

3366706v3 P13


4.0 Potential Impacts 

Introduction 

4.1 This section identifies and assesses the scale and nature of the main socioeconomic 

impacts arising from the proposed development, including at both 

construction and operational stages. 

Construction Impacts 

Direct employment 

4.2 Construction employment will be a direct impact of the scheme and has been 

estimated based on a total construction cost for the built development and 

localised infrastructure of approximately £200 million 5 . An average 30% of the 

total cost is typically accounted for by labour costs, which equates to £60 

million. Dividing this figure by the gross average cost of construction labour in 

Scotland 6 , produces approximately 2,310 person-years of employment. 

4.3 An alternative approach is to divide total construction costs by the average 

turnover per employee in this sector in Scotland, which was £104,234 in 

2011 7 . This produces approximately 1,920 person-years of construction 

employment. 

4.4 This suggests that between 1,920 and 2,310 person-years of construction work 

would result directly from the proposed development. Since the build period for 

this development is anticipated to be spread over a 64 month (just over 5 

years) period, an overall average of between 360 and 433 temporary job 

opportunities per year could be directly created. In economic terms, there is a 

convention that 10 temporary construction jobs are equivalent to 1 Full Time 

Equivalent (FTE) jobs, so that up to approximately 231 FTE construction jobs 

will result in total. 

4.5 Given that national construction firms sometimes use their own permanent 

workforce on projects, but also employ contractors with a proportion of 

construction workers drawn locally, it is difficult to identify the likely source of 

workers to fill these construction jobs before contracts have been let. However, 

based on experience elsewhere it would be reasonable to expect a proportion 

of the construction jobs created by the proposed development could be taken 

5 This is a high level outline estimate of construction cost provided by the applicant. 

6 The mean gross annual wage of Skilled Construction and Building trades employees in Scotland was 

£23,598 in 2011 (Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings).10% has been added to this figure to cover 

overheads. 

7 Business Population Estimates for the UK and Regions 2011, BIS - total construction turnover in 2011 was 

estimated at £15,150,405,000 for Scotland, whilst total construction workers in Scotland was estimated at 

145,350. 

P14 3366706v3


up by the local workforce, therefore retaining economic benefits associated with 

construction employment locally, particularly if measures are in place to 

encourage local recruitment and to raise local skills levels. 

Indirect and induced employment 

4.6 In addition, it is also likely that some businesses in the local area, as well as 

the wider Scotland economy, would benefit from the trade linkages that would 

be established during the construction of the proposed development. This 

means that further indirect jobs would be supported locally in suppliers of 

construction materials and equipment. Local businesses would generally also 

benefit to some extent from temporary increases in expenditure as a result of 

the direct and indirect employment effects of the construction phase, for 

example, as construction workers spend wages in local shops and other 

facilities. 

4.7 Applying an employment multiplier of 1.2 to the FTE construction employment 

indicates that a further 46 FTE indirect / induced jobs could be supported in 

the impact area as a result of such construction related expenditure. 

4.8 Drawing together these various effects, the construction of the new 

development could generate up to 277 FTE jobs, thereby providing a range of 

employment benefits to residents of the local area. 

Gross Value Added 

4.9 The construction phase of the proposed development will also make a 

significant contribution to local Gross Value Added (GVA) which provides a 

measure of productivity. It is estimated that the development could deliver an 

additional £10.6 million of GVA 8 per year during construction, although it should 

be noted that not all of this will be retained locally. 

Operational Impacts 

4.10 The proposed development at Braehead comprises a range of retail and food 

and drink uses, a new arena and associated leisure uses, a hotel and transport 

interchange, all of which will generate employment, GVA and expenditure within 

the impact area once complete and operational. The following section 

estimates the nature and scale of these impacts. 

8 2011 Experian data suggests that the UK construction industry generates average GVA per employee of 

£38,350. This is applied to the net additional employment impact of the scheme (approximately 277 FTE 

jobs) to estimate additional GVA 

3366706v3 P15


Direct employment 

4.11 The level of direct employment associated with the proposed development has 

been estimated using ratios between job numbers and floorspace of the 

various employment generating uses proposed. This draws on CSC blended 

average employment densities generated by previous centre employment 

surveys/economic studies undertaken by NLP, operator estimates and 

published studies of employment densities 9 . 

4.12 As indicated in Table 4.1 below, the number of jobs generated for each use or 

facility is estimated by applying the appropriate ratio to the amount of net 

additional floorspace proposed in each case or the estimated operational staff 

for the facility. This produces approximately 2,650 jobs (2,090 FTE). 

Table 4.1 Job Generation of Proposed Development 

Proposed 

Use 

Department 

Class 1 Store 

(Retail) Other Retail 

Units 

Class 2 

and 3 

Class 7 Hotel 

Component Net 

Additional 

Floorspace 

Financial/ 

Professional 

and Food and 

Drink 

Average Employment 

Density 

No. of Jobs 

Generated 

(m 2 ) Total FTE Total FTE 

21,660 

19,080 

3,100 

11,295 

(200 bed) 

1 job per 

20.3m 2 

1 job per 

16.9m 2 

1 job per 

8.7m 2 

1 job per 

21.7m 2 

1 job per 

26.1m 2 

1 job per 

11.8m 2 

1,067 998 

1,129 731 

356 263 

1 job per 3 bedrooms 67 

Class 11 Arena 18,844 † Operator Estimate 20 

Transport Interchange 7,978 Operator Estimate 7 

Total (rounded) 2,650 2,090 

Source: CSC/NLP survey, HCA/Offpat 2010, Operator Estimates 

† This figure refers to the new arena building rather than net additional arena floorspace 

4.13 In addition, a number of part time jobs (largely hospitality and catering) will be 

created at the new, larger arena. However, as this number will depend on the 

scale and frequency of events being held, these employment impacts have not 

been specifically quantified and considered as part of this assessment. 

4.14 The proposals will provide a mix of full-time and part-time employment 

opportunities, reflecting the mix of uses and facilities proposed within the 

development. FTE jobs in the development would be lower than the number of 

total jobs due to the large proportion of retail floorspace within the proposed 

9 2010 HCA/Offpat 

P16 3366706v3


development which are typically characterised by higher proportions of part time 

employees within their operations. 

4.15 Given the proportions of floorspace and the types of units proposed, the 

majority of these jobs (approximately 2,200 or 83%) will fall broadly within the 

retail sector. Table 4.2 below translates the potential retail sector employment 

generated by the scheme into occupations based on the occupational profile of 

retail employees in the UK as a whole. This indicates that opportunities would 

be provided at a range of skill levels, primarily sales and customer services, but 

also significant numbers of management as well as elementary and 

administrative occupations. 

Table 4.2 Retail Employment Generation by Occupation 

Occupation Retail Sector (% of 

Employees) 

National Profile 

Braehead Extension 

(Retail Jobs 

Generated) 

Managers and Senior Officials 18.2% 400 

Professional Occupations 2.1% 46 

Associate Professional and Technical 

Occupations 

4.5% 99 

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 5.4% 119 

Skilled Trades Occupations 3.5% 77 

Personal Service Occupations 0.2% 4 

Sales and Customer Service Occupations 50.3% 1,107 

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 3.5% 77 

Elementary Occupations 12.3% 271 

Total 100% 2,200 

Source: Skillsmart Retail (Sector Skills Council) 'The Age of Retail' July 2010 using 2009 Labour Force 

Survey Data (totals rounded) 

4.16 Overall, the proposals will create a substantial amount of direct new 

employment in the local (Renfrewshire) area, with a mix of full-time, permanent 

jobs, and flexible part-time opportunities spanning a range of occupation types 

and skill levels, but reflecting the retail-led nature of the scheme and the 

characteristics of employment within this sector. 

Net Additional Employment 

4.17 As part of the proposed development site is currently developed and in use 

(accommodating the existing Primark and New Look stores on the lower mall), a 

number of existing jobs on the site will be transferred into the new scheme 

(e.g. through the extension of the mall and alterations to existing units within 

the centre). Because these existing jobs (estimated to amount to c.550 or 360 

FTE) are associated with uses that will be retained/re-provided in the new 

scheme, the resulting effect will be a transfer rather than loss of employment. 

3366706v3 P17


4.18 In addition to existing jobs on the site, some employment generated may be 

displaced from elsewhere in the local area (e.g. retailers moving units from 

elsewhere in Renfrewshire and Glasgow to the Braehead development or new 

jobs being filled by employees drawn from existing retail operators in the local 

area). Net employment impacts in the main impact area have been estimated 

by considering the extent to which the proposed development would displace 

some jobs from existing local businesses, or prevent other employment 

development proceeding. 

4.19 The retail impact assessment which accompanies the planning application 

identifies that trade diversion from existing comparison floorspace in the 

Renfrewshire and wider Glasgow area would be limited, as a number of new 

retail developments are due to come on stream over the next few years across 

the West of Scotland which will reduce Braehead’s current turnover and shrink 

its wider trade draw. The Glasgow and The Clyde Valley SDP expects Glasgow 

City Centre to remain the principal retail destination in the plan area, and the 

retail impact analysis identifies that the proposed development at Braehead will 

not affect this commitment to the future role of the City Centre. 

4.20 The assessment estimates trade diversion associated with the proposed 

additional retail development at Braehead, taking account of factors such as 

the existing pattern of trade draw to Braehead, the location and nature of the 

main competing centres including those new developments which will have 

been implemented by 2018, and the extent to which the expanded Braehead 

facilities are likely to be sufficiently attractive to divert trade from other centres. 

Compared with expected turnover in 2018 without any investment/expansion, 

this trade diversion analysis indicates a 46% increase in turnover at Braehead, 

at the expense of a 9% reduction at the retail park, 1% reduction in Glasgow 

City Centre, 9.1% reduction at Glasgow Harbour and 7.3% reduction at 

Silverburn. However, in all instances the estimated levels of trade diversion are 

well within tolerance levels for the affected centres and most centres can 

expect to be trading at well above benchmark levels following the Braehead 

development (the two exceptions being the Braehead retail park and Glasgow 

Harbour). 

4.21 As such, displacement effects are expected to be low, and as a broad estimate 

it is assumed that no more than 5% of the additional jobs created by the 

proposed development will result from displacement of the retail and other jobs 

from elsewhere in the local area. This equates to 133 (105 FTE) jobs. 

4.22 Overall, after allowing for such displacement effects, the net additional jobs 

resulting from the proposed development are estimated to be in the order of 

2,520 (1,990 FTE) at the local level, as shown in Table 4.3 below. 

P18 3366706v3


Table 4.3 Net Additional Employment 

Total Jobs FTE Jobs 

Gross job generation of proposed development 2,650 2,090 

Less job displacement in Local Area (5%) 133 105 

Net additional employment 2,520 1,990 

Source: NLP analysis (totals rounded) 

Gross Value Added 

4.23 As with the construction phase of the development, the operational phase will 

also make a significant contribution to local GVA by supporting the creation of 

new employment. Between them, the net additional direct jobs generated by 

the proposed extension could deliver an additional £45 million of GVA per year 

for the local economy (Table 4.4). This is equivalent to 1.4% of the total GVA 

generated across the whole of Renfrewshire’s economy in 2012. 

Table 4.4 Operational GVA Impacts (Net Additional) 

Proposed Use No of FTE Jobs Average GVA 

per FTE † 

Total GVA 

Retail 1,643 £24,380 £40.1m 

Financial/Professional 

and Food and Drink 

250 £13,395 £3.3m 

Hotel 64 £20,080 £1.3m 

Arena/Leisure 19 £11,480 £218,110 

Transport Interchange 6 £25,040 £150,220 

Total (rounded) 1,990 £45m 

Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2008 / NLP analysis 

† Based on ABI 2008 GVA data (Scotland) 

Indirect/Induced Employment 

4.24 Indirect jobs will be supported by the spending on goods, supplies and 

services, of the retail and other operators based on site with firms in the 

surrounding area. The spending of wages by both employees of firms on the 

site and of the local firms supplying goods and services to these companies 

will also support induced employment in other local shops, other services and 

other firms. These types of employment are normally estimated using 

employment multipliers derived from research on similar operations elsewhere, 

with adjustments to reflect the specific characteristics of the proposed 

development, the amount of spending retained in the local area, and local 

economic and labour market conditions. 

3366706v3 P19


4.25 Based on the characteristics of the proposed development, its local economic 

context and labour market, a combined employment multiplier of 1.2 is 

considered appropriate to estimate both indirect and induced employment for 

the main impact area of Renfrewshire and Glasgow, while a multiplier of 1.4 is 

assumed to reflect regional job impacts, in the context that many occupiers will 

be national retailers. Applying this local area multiplier to the estimated 1,990 

net additional direct FTE jobs results in a further 400 ‘spin-off’ FTE jobs in local 

services and other firms in the area. 

4.26 On this basis, the operational phase of the proposed development is estimated 

to support, directly and indirectly, 2,920 net additional direct and indirect jobs 

in total across the main impact area. Across the region (i.e. Scotland), a similar 

calculation indicates that 3,320 net additional, direct and indirect operations 

related jobs would be generated, including those in the main impact area. 

Table 4.5 Gross Employment Related to scheme in the Impact Area 

Type of Employment Total Jobs FTE Jobs 

Direct net additional 2,520 1,990 

Multiplier of 1.2 (on FTE Jobs) 

Indirect/Induced Jobs in Impact Area 400 400 

TOTAL (Net Additional) 2,920 2,390 


Table 4.6 Gross Employment Related to scheme in the Region 

Type of Employment Total Jobs FTE Jobs 

Direct net additional 2,520 1,990 

Multiplier of 1.4 (on FTE jobs) 

Indirect/Induced Jobs in Region (inc. Impact Area 

induced jobs) 

800 800 

TOTAL (Net Additional) 3,320 2,790 


4.27 These total employment figures would represent an increase of 3.5% (2,520) 

over the existing employment baseline in terms of net additional jobs to 

Renfrewshire; 0.6% (2,920) increase in the impact area (Renfrewshire and 

Glasgow) and 0.1% (3,320) increase over the existing baseline in terms of 

additional jobs to the region (Scotland). Within the context of the recent 

recession and the need for private sector led job growth to drive short and 

medium term economic prosperity, the levels of employment proposed – whilst 

relatively small at the impact and regional area – are nonetheless significant. 

P20 3366706v3


Impact on Retail and Leisure Facilities 

4.28 Retail impact analysis undertaken as part of the planning application 

submission indicates that the effect of the proposed extension to Braehead’s 

retail and leisure floorspace will serve to restore the Centre’s turnover by 2018 

to the level which would have been achieved in 2008 based on 2004 shopping 

patterns, before allowing for the effect of the Silverburn retail development at 

Pollok, which has impacted negatively upon Braehead’s market share. 

4.29 A number of significant new retail developments are expected to come on 

stream over the next few years which are likely to greatly reduce Braehead’s 

current turnover, particularly within Glasgow City Centre with current proposals 

to extend the Buchanan Galleries development. At the same time, the retail 

impact analysis predicts that Braehead’s wider trade draw will also shrink as it 

relies to a greater extent upon locally generated expenditure, as new retail 

developments in the wider catchment consume trade which might otherwise 

have been attracted to an expanded Braehead. As a result, the ability of 

Braehead to continue to function as a catalyst for economic regeneration on 

the Clyde Waterfront would be seriously undermined, and its role as an 

economic driver could potentially diminish. 

4.30 It is crucial that Braehead continues to provide a competitive retail and leisure 

offer (in terms of both floorspace and market appeal) in order for the Centre to 

effectively compete with these other planned developments and ensure that the 

Strategic Development Plan’s aims for continued economic regeneration along 

the Clyde Waterfront are realised. The proposed development at Braehead will 

specifically meet this identified need to maintain its existing status as a 

strategic centre. If new retail and leisure accommodation is not provided at 

Braehead, or is delayed, then existing retailers may be drawn elsewhere, new 

retailers will not be attracted to the Centre and customers will increasingly look 

to other centres for shopping, which may involve travelling longer distances. 

4.31 The SDP and proposed LDP recognise the need for the regeneration of the 

Braehead Centre and that diversification of its roles and functions should be 

encouraged. Diversification to deliver a wider range of roles and functions can 

only be made viable by reinforcement of its principal role as a retail and leisure 

destination, so that those other functions can flourish in association with its 

established role. The retail impact analysis identifies that because Braehead’s 

role is currently under threat, a strategy for new investment is vital. 

4.32 As well as delivering an enhanced retail offer, the proposed development will 

also enhance Braehead’s reputation as a leading venue for leisure facilities by 

providing a new multi-functional 5,000 seat arena. This will accommodate the 

capacity for larger, higher value and higher profile events that the existing arena 

is unable to attract. This in turn will impact upon the local economy by 

supporting ancillary services such as hotels and restaurants, improving 

perceptions of the area, and stimulating further investment in the surrounding 

area as developer confidence grows. The new arena building will also provide 

conferencing facilities, supported by a new hotel providing on-site 

accommodation for delegates. It will also enable Braehead to more effectively 

3366706v3 P21


compete with nearby venues such as the Scottish Exhibition and Conference 

Centre in Glasgow, to attract top concerts, shows and events to Renfrewshire. 

4.33 The provision of a new public square will bring about a step-change in the 

quality of public realm at Braehead, substantially improving the external 

environment, its accessibility, its attractiveness as a place to live, work, shop 

and relax, and its ability to meet the needs of its catchment population who rely 

on it for a wide range of services and functions. 

Impact on Regeneration and Deprivation 

4.34 Braehead is located on the eastern border of Renfrewshire adjoining Glasgow 

City, an area which is characterised by pockets of relatively high levels of 

deprivation. Its development has acted as a major economic stimulus in an 

area of relatively high unemployment and poor image, raising investor 

confidence and helping attract further investment to the surrounding area. As 

part of the wider Clyde Waterfront renewal, Braehead now has the potential to 

transform the area into an internationally competitive 'central belt' for 

business, employment, living and tourism. 

4.35 The Glasgow and Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning Authority has 

outlined its strategic aims within the Joint Structure Plan (2008) which include 

increasing economic competitiveness, promoting greater social inclusion and 

integration. Specifically, it aims to improve overall quality of life for local 

communities by improving access to local employment, shopping, social and 

cultural facilities. 

4.36 In this context, the extension proposals will not only provide an enhanced retail 

and leisure offer for Renfrewshire, but also provide access to employment 

across a range of skill levels, community facilities and social opportunities. It 

will also bring substantial economic benefits, including business investment 

and 2,510 net additional direct permanent jobs to Renfrewshire, which in turn 

will support wider residential, commercial and infrastructure development, 

creating a balanced community which is key to the successful wider 

regeneration of the Clyde Waterfront area. 

4.37 The development proposals will also enhance Braehead’s existing transport 

infrastructure (which currently comprises a dedicated bus station and travel 

information centre) by providing a new state of the art transport interchange to 

enhance local accessibility and support the development of a more sustainable 

public transport network in the local area. This will include a new Fastlink bus 

service route – a regional bus rapid transit system serving key sites along the 

northern and southern banks of the River Clyde including Braehead, Glasgow 

City and Paisley town centre. 

Maximising the Impacts 

4.38 Whilst the socio-economic impacts of the proposals will largely be positive, the 

pro-active use of a number of approaches and measures could enhance and 

P22 3366706v3


maximise the extent of these benefits upon the local economy. Specific 

measures that could be adopted are indicated below. 

During construction 

4.39 The main socio-economic impacts from construction will relate to employment 

generation and investment in the scheme. These positive aspects may be 

maximised by encouraging local recruitment and identifying any current training 

initiatives that could be tapped into. 

4.40 As indicated previously, national construction firms often use their own 

permanent workforce on projects, but also employ contractors with a proportion 

of construction workers drawn locally. CSC has engaged in discussion with a 

number of potential construction firms, and whilst no firm agreement with any 

one has been reached, a number of measures have been discussed such as: 

i Providing the opportunity for local labour resources to be used 

where possible, including sub-contracting of construction services 

to local firms, encouraging recruitment through local press and local 

job centres and introducing community benefit clauses in 

construction contracts; 

ii Providing apprenticeships and work experience opportunities, with 

initial estimates that circa 5% of the peak construction labour 

demand could be filled by apprentices from the local labour force 

and a large number of work experience days could be supported for 

NEETs and other young people. There is the opportunity for this to 

be undertaken in conjunction with local skills partners; and 

iii Promoting sub-contract and supply opportunities to local firms to 

seek to establish a supply chain based in the Renfrewshire and 

wider Glasgow area both encouraging sustainable sourcing of 

materials/labour (short transport distances) as well as retaining 

economic benefits locally. 

4.41 These measures are typically subject to discussion with the relevant authority 

with targets for local recruitment set and may form part of any planning 

obligations agreed between CSC and Renfrewshire Council. However, CSC are 

committed to providing measures for such local employment and training 

support, recognising the benefits this can provide to the local area. 

After completion 

4.42 While the proposed development is anticipated to deliver a range of local 

economic benefits, these could be maximised through measures to encourage 

local recruitment for the new job opportunities offered in the longer term 

operation of the proposed development. 

4.43 For example, CSC are committed to promoting a package of measures to 

promote jobs in the retail industry and enhance skills. It is anticipated that this 

will follow CSC’s programmes at a number of their other shopping centre 

3366706v3 P23


developments, including most recently where the Retail Gold scheme has been 

established by CSC and the Newcastle Education Business Partners as part of 

CSC’s interests in Eldon Square shopping centre in Newcastle and the 

MetroCentre shopping centre in Gateshead. The scheme aims to support upskilling 

in the labour force by providing retail placements for students studying 

vocational retail based qualifications (e.g. BTECs) as well as providing support 

for students with CVs and interview skills etc. 

4.44 More specifically, CSC will work with Renfrewshire Council and the local 

Employability Partnership to promote and maximise the new employment 

opportunities generated by the proposed development in order to benefit local 

people. Together with local job centres, the Council will play a key role in 

assisting this process with increased support for pre vocational training to 

ensure that appropriate skills are available to the local workforce. Potential 

measures could include an Employment Recruitment Centre to ensure new job 

opportunities are accessible to local communities (a model which has been run 

successfully at Glasgow Airport and is about to be delivered in Hillington 

Industrial Park) and tapping into the Council’s £2.5million Invest in 

Renfrewshire programme whereby local companies provide opportunities for 18- 

24 year-olds in return for wage and apprenticeship subsidies, small loan funds 

and retail improvement grants. 

4.45 These measures will help maximise the benefits to the local labour market by 

ensuring people with the right skills are matched to the retail jobs created and 

creating a structured placement scheme to develop skills in the local workforce. 

4.46 In addition, CSC will endeavour (and encourage its sub-contractors) to source 

goods and services from local suppliers to support its ongoing programme of 

capital expenditure and development at Braehead. For example, this could 

include: 

Taking active steps to inform companies in the Renfrewshire and wider 

Glasgow area of opportunities to tender for the supply of ongoing goods 

and services once the proposed development is operational. 

Advertising tendering opportunities to small and medium sized 

enterprises that are based in the Renfrewshire and wider Glasgow area 

through local business networks. 

P24 3366706v3


5.0 Wider Economic Role & Attraction of 

Investment 

5.1 This section identifies the wider economic role that the development of 

Braehead has had in supporting the regeneration of the Clyde waterfront and 

attracting additional investment to the area. It draws on earlier economic 

analysis of the Centre prepared by NLP and OXIRM. 10 

Origins of the Braehead Shopping Centre 

5.2 The site on which the Braehead development is now located was once 

industrial land and part of the former Braehead Power Station, but had largely 

become vacant and neglected by the 1990s. The location was surrounded by 

large-scale industrial activities such as scrap metal processing, steel 

fabrication, whisky bottling, animal feed processing and a container depot. The 

site was environmentally unattractive with a line of electricity pylons, presenting 

high remediation and development costs. It also formed part of an extensive 

area of partly derelict former industrial land running along the south bank of the 

River Clyde following the long period of decline of ship building and port-related 

industries that commenced from the 1960s onwards. 

5.3 A planning application for the Braehead complex, including the shopping centre, 

was first submitted by the Clyde Port Authority in 1987. Permission was granted 

by the then Secretary of State for Scotland on appeal in 1990, after initial 

refusal by the then Strathclyde Regional Council, identifying the following 

factors in support of the proposals: 

a restoring and making positive use of a large unused site, largely through 

private investment, that would otherwise be unlikely to be achieved in the 

near future without considerable public expense; 

b the creation of in excess of 1,000 net jobs; 

c providing an attractive, high quality development with leisure elements 

that would attract visitors from a wide area and would contribute towards 

urban renewal and regeneration of the area; and 

d providing retail facilities that would more than compensate for any 

deterioration in existing centres and the net overall gain in the range and 

attractiveness of the shopping facilities serving the area. 

5.4 In 1992, the site was acquired from the Clyde Port Authority by Marks & 

Spencer plc and J. Sainsbury plc. A detailed masterplan for the site was 

submitted in 1993 and full planning permission was granted in May 1996. 

10 

Economic Study of Braehead Shopping Centre, Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners and Oxford Institute of Retail 

Management, 2005. 

3366706v3 P25


5.5 In January 1995, CSC bought the site and announced a partnership with Marks 

& Spencer plc and J. Sainsbury to develop it. Planning permission for an 

amended scheme was granted in May 1997. Initial work on site had 

commenced in 1996 and the Centre opened in 1999, at a cost of about £285 

million to build. 

Catalyst for Regeneration 

5.6 Braehead Shopping Centre and Retail Park now has over one million square 

feet of shopping and leisure facilities and attracts 17 million visitors annually. It 

has provided the catalyst for one of the largest privately funded waterside 

regeneration projects in the country. 

5.7 The construction of Braehead Shopping Centre constituted the first significant 

new development in the area for many years, and also brought substantial new 

transport infrastructure to the location including new road links and bus station 

with a range of routes to the surrounding area. More generally, the initial 

development was able to raise both developer and occupier confidence in the 

area and fund the large amount of infrastructure needed to kick-start 

regeneration. It also helped change the image and perceptions of the area from 

one of dereliction and distinguish it from other areas of vacant brownfield land 

along the Clyde. The scope of the investment at Braehead now extends much 

further than the original shopping centre complex, and across a full range of 

land-uses and supporting infrastructure. 

5.8 The original shopping centre was immediately followed by a first phase of other 

investments: 

a £35 million IKEA store, with an estimated 500 jobs, was developed on an 

adjoining site one year after Braehead opened; 

b £15 million Audi ‘Centre of Excellence’ opened in 2004, creating the 

world’s largest Audi retail venue, alongside restaurant and conferencing 

facilities; 

c £65 million Xscape leisure complex opened in 2006, generating 800 

jobs; and 

d £12.5 million Scottish headquarters for Porcelanosa was completed in 

2008. 

5.9 Subsequent investments were not just limited to retail and leisure activities, 

but also included new provision for business space. Titanium Business Park 

was the first phase of what has subsequently expanded into 

braehead4business, marketed as Scotland’s “Premier Business Quarter.” This 

comprises a further three business parks – Riverside, Platinum and Shiel’s 

Gate. Braehead now has a significant track record in attracting corporate 

occupiers, including: 

a Ceridian, one of the largest providers of HR outsourcing services in the 

world, created 200 new jobs when it located at Titanium Business Park in 

2011; 

P26 3366706v3


b relocation of Campbell Dallas LLP, one of Scotland’s leading accountancy 

firms, to Titanium 1 in 2011; 

c one of Scotland’s fastest growing software development businesses, The 

Solution Works, moved to new offices at Riverside Business Park in 

2010. 

5.10 Taken together, these developments illustrate the broad appeal of this location 

for a range of investment. This reflects the commercial success, range of 

facilities, improved infrastructure and good transport links that have derived 

from the presence of the Braehead Shopping Centre. 

Conclusions 

5.11 Alongside public sector initiatives, the development at Braehead has stimulated 

the wider regeneration of the Clyde Waterfront. Two decades ago, the area was 

characterised by high unemployment, a lack of investment and large areas of 

derelict land. 

5.12 The original Braehead Shopping Centre scheme which opened in 1999 was 

entirely the result of private sector investment, delivering significant new 

infrastructure and providing a clear signal of investor confidence in the area. 

The Centre’s development provided a critical mass of investment at an early 

stage able to help address the substantial remediation challenges that existed. 

The development also came at a time when the regeneration of the wider Clyde 

Waterfront was still very much in its infancy. The Centre has since provided the 

platform for further public sector initiatives, through Renfrew Riverside and its 

partners. 

5.13 Significant further investment has been attracted around the Braehead site in 

which CSC continues to have a leading role. The Centre appears to have 

accelerated development activity on surrounding sites, significantly enhancing 

investor confidence through its scale, profile and success in commercial terms. 

The proposed mixed use development will cement Braehead’s position as a 

focus for growth, anchor further investment, and support the diversification of 

the centre in support of its role as a new Strategic Town Centre in 

Renfrewshire. 

3366706v3 P27


6.0 Conclusions 

6.1 Overall, the proposals will deliver an expanded Centre at Braehead, cementing 

its status as one of Scotland’s leading retail and leisure destinations. The 

development will generate a wide range of direct, indirect and catalytic 

economic effects, both quantifiable and non-quantifiable. These effects will be 

spread over a wide area, but are likely to be focused on the local authority 

areas of Renfrewshire and Glasgow City which is taken to be the main impact 

area. 

6.2 The labour catchment area is characterised by population decline, high levels of 

unemployment and localised incidences of deprivation. However, the Clyde 

Waterfront area – which in the past has been characterised by a lack of 

investment and large areas of derelict land – has undergone significant 

regeneration in recent years, with the shopping and leisure facilities at 

Braehead at the heart of this transformation, stimulating confidence and further 

investment in the area. 

6.3 Based on the preceding sections, the most significant impacts of the proposed 

development on the local economy would be: 

a A capital investment of approximately £200 million over 5 years; 

b Up to 2,310 person-years of temporary construction work spread over a 

c.5 year period; 

c Approximately 2,650 direct permanent job opportunities to be created 

directly on site once the development is complete, in an area which has 

undergone recent employment decline; 

d 2,920 net additional direct and indirect job opportunities in total in the 

local area and 3,320 net additional direct and indirect job opportunities 

spread across the region (including those in the local area and on the 

site); 

e GVA generated by the construction and operational phases of the 

development amounting to £55.6 million per annum, providing a 

significant boost to the local economy; 

f Wider economic benefits, including maintaining and enhancing 

Braehead’s role as a Strategic Centre, providing major employment 

benefits to the local labour market and providing a catalyst for wider 

regeneration of the surrounding Clyde Waterfront area. 

6.4 The proposals will have substantial beneficial economic impacts in the labour 

catchment area (Renfrewshire and Glasgow City) through the creation of a 

range of new jobs at both construction and operational stages and the 

implications of these on addressing unemployment and skills deprivation within 

the local labour force. These impacts will help tackle deprivation and underpin 

regeneration on Renfrew Riverside, complementing regeneration activity within 

other parts of the wider Clyde Waterfront area. 

P28 3366706v3


6.5 The proposed development will also contribute positively to the retail offer in 

Renfrewshire, providing new retail and leisure facilities to help enhance both 

the daytime and evening economy. It will also help to maintain Braehead’s role 

as a strategic centre and act as a catalyst to attract new operators and 

investment to the area. 

6.6 Overall, the proposals represent a significant new capital investment in the 

area and will raise the overall level of economic activity and expenditure in the 

local area, helping to achieve the socio-economic policy objectives of economic 

prosperity and delivering access to job opportunities. The development will 

expand the range of facilities at Braehead and help to further diversify the 

functions of the centre in support of its role as a new town centre in 

Renfrewshire. 

3366706v3 P29


7.0 Abbreviations 

1 CSC - Capital Shopping Centres 

2 ABI - Annual Business Enquiry 

3 BRES - Business Register and Employment Survey 

4 SPD - Strategic Development Plan 

5 LDP - Local Development Plan 

6 SDS - Spatial Development Strategy’ 

7 BR - Background Report 

8 VAT - Value Added Tax 

9 SIMD - Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 

10 SEPA - Scottish Environment Protection Agency 

11 JSA - Job Seekers Allowance 

12 GB - Great Britain 

13 FTE - Full Time Equivalent 

14 NVQ - National Vocational Qualification 

15 GVA - Gross Value Added 

16 NEET - Not in Education, Employment or Training 

17 BTEC - Business and Technology Education Council 

18 ONS - Office for National Statistics 

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8.0 References 

1 Glasgow and The Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan (SDP), Glasgow 

and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning Authority, May 2012 

2 Renfrewshire Local Plan, Renfrewshire Council, Adopted March 2006 

3 The Economic Contribution of Braehead Shopping Centre, Glasgow, NLP 

December 2012 

4 2001 Census, ONS, 2001 

5 Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), ONS, 2008-2011 

6 Annual Business Inquiry (ABI), ONS, 1998-2008 

7 Annual Population Survey, Nomis, 2008 

8 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, ONS, 2011 

9 VAT registrations/de-registrations by industry, BERR 1997-2007 

3366706v3 P31


Appendix 1 Socio Economic Data 

Table 1: Area of Residence of Renfrewshire based Employees (Census 2001) 

Area 

% of 

Employees 

living in Area 

Cumulative % 

Renfrewshire 60.7 60.7 

Glasgow City 25.6 86.3 

Various other districts 13.7 100.0 

Source: 2001 Census Scottish travel flows (local authority) for full and part time employed 

Table 2: Area of Residence for Renfrewshire based Employees (APS 2008) 

Area 

% of 

Employees 

living in Area 

Cumulative % 



Various other districts 26.5 100.0 

Source: 2008 Annual Population Survey 

Table 3: Changes in Employment 2001-2011 

Area 2001 2011 % Change 

Renfrewshire 82,207 72,698 -11.6 

Glasgow City 394,698 384,867 -2.5 

Source: 2001 Annual Business Inquiry and 2011 Business Register and Employment Survey (2001 

ABI data scaled to be consistent with current BRES estimates) 

P32 3366706v3


Table 4: Employment by Main Industrial Sectors 

Sector 

Agriculture, forestry, 

fishing, mining and utilities 

Labour Catchment 

Area (%) 

Scotland 

(%) 

Great Britain (%) 

2001 2011 2011 2001 2011 

1.1 1.5 4.2 1.7 2.1 

Manufacturing 9.2 6 7.7 14.1 8.7 

Construction 4.8 4.6 5.5 4.5 4.6 

Wholesale and retail trade; 

repair of motor vehicles, 

motorcycles and personal 

and household goods 

Transport, storage and 

communication 

14.9 13.5 14.7 17.8 16.1 

7 7.4 6.6 6.1 8.5 

Hotels and restaurants 6.1 6.2 7.1 6.5 6.8 

Financial intermediation 6.7 12.1 9.8 4.3 11.2 

Real estate, renting and 

business activities 

Public administration and 

defence 

15.7 14.6 9 15.3 9.7 

7.7 6.5 6.4 5.1 5.2 

Education 8.4 7.4 8.2 8.4 9.4 

Health and social work 12.9 15.7 16.3 10.8 13.2 

Other community, social 

and personal service 

activities 

5.5 4.5 4.5 5.2 4.5 



3366706v3 P33


Table 5: Change in Employment Structure in Labour Catchment Area 

Sector 

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, 

mining and utilities 

2001 

(000s) 

Labour Catchment Area Scotland 

2011 

(000s) 

% change 

2001 – 2011 

(% change) 

5,289 6925 +30.9 +10.7 

Manufacturing 43,838 27,382 -37.5 -41.2 

Construction 22,866 20,894 -8.6 +0.1 

Wholesale and retail trade; 

repair of motor vehicles, 

motorcycles and personal and 

household goods 

Transport, storage and 

communication 

70,933 61,855 -12.8 -15.2 

33,768 33,978 +0.6 +11.5 

Hotels and restaurants 29,281 28,582 -2.4 -7.5 

Financial and insurance, 

scientific and technical 

Real estate, renting and 

business activities 

Public administration and 

defence 

31,776 55,219 +57.2 +103.5 

74,767 66,679 -10.8 -32.4 

36,624 29,737 -18.8 -5.5 

Education 40,101 33,906 -15.4 -4.5 

Health 61,346 71,875 +17.2 +24.7 

Other services 26,314 20,535 -21.2 -21.8 

Total 476,903 457,567 -4.1 -5.3 



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Table 6: Number of VAT Registered Businesses 

Area 1997 2007 % Change 

Renfrewshire 3,130 3,670 17.3 

Glasgow City 12,190 13,750 12.8 

Scotland 122,840 141,895 15.5% 

Great Britain 1,619,470 1,964,920 21.3% 

Source: BERR vat registrations/de-registrations by industry 1997/2007 

Table 7: Sought Occupation of Claimant Unemployed Workers 

Sought Occupation 

Labour Catchment 

Area 

(no. / %) 

Scotland 

(no. / %) 

Occupation unknown 295 (1) 1,975 (1.5) 

Managers and Senior Officials 520 (1.8) 2,750 (2) 

Professional Occupations 570 (2) 2,785 (2.1) 

Associate Professional and 

Technical Occupations 

Administrative and Secretarial 

Occupations 

1,325 (4.6) 5.905 (4.4) 

2,340 (8.1) 10,250 (7.6) 

Skilled Trades Occupations 2,615 (9.1) 14,615 (10.8) 

Personal Service Occupations 1,740 (6) 8,725 (6.4) 

Sales and Customer Service 

occupations 

Process, Plant and Machine 

Operatives 

8,055 (28) 36,735 (27.1) 

2,275 (7.9) 11,695 (8.6) 

Elementary Occupations 9,080 (31.5) 40,005 (29.5) 

Total 28,810 135,440 

Source: NOMIS ONS September 2012 

3366706v3 P35


Table 8: Unemployment Rates and Long Term Unemployment 

Area 

No. Claimant 

Unemployed * 

Claimant 

Unemployment 

Rate (%) * 

Long Term 

Claimant 

Rate (%) # 

Unemployment 

Rate (%) † 

Renfrewshire 5,175 4.6 1.4 9.3 

Glasgow City 23,635 5.7 1.7 10.8 

Scotland ~ 3.9 1.1 7.9 

Source: * NOMIS ONS Claimant Count September 2012 

Source: # NOMIS ONS September 2012 over 12 months unemployed, (% is number of persons 

claiming JSA as a proportion of resident population of the same age). 

Source: † NOMIS ONS Employment and Unemployment (Jul 2011 – Jun 2012) 

Table 9: Job Vacancies and Unemployment Indicators 

Area 

Live Unfilled 

Vacancies 

No. of 

Claimant 

Unemployed 

Unemployed/ 

Vacancy 

Ratio 

Renfrewshire 726 5,175 7.1 

Glasgow City 2,948 23,635 8.0 

Scotland 26,862 ~ 5.1 

Great Britain 385,746 ~ 3.9 

Source: NOMIS ONS September 2012 

Table 10: Average Gross Weekly Earnings of Full Time Employees by Workplace 

Area 

Average Weekly 

Earnings 

As a % of GB 

Average 



Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings - workplace analysis 2011 

P36 3366706v3


Table 11: Occupational Breakdown of Labour Force 

Occupational Group 

Labour 

Catchment 

Area 

(no. / %) 

Scotland 

(%) 

Great 

Britain 

(%) 

Managers/senior officials 25,700 (7.6) 8.3 10.1 

Professional occupations 72,300 (21.4) 19.0 19.1 

Associate professional & 

technical 

Administrative & secretarial 

occupations 

43,700 (12.9) 12.9 14.0 

35,900 (10.6) 10.9 11.0 

Skilled trades 29,800 (8.8) 11.4 10.8 

Personal service occupations 35,100 (10.4) 9.8 9.1 

Sales and customer service 

occupations 

Process plant & machine 

operatives 

32,100 (9.5) 9.2 8.1 

19,500 (5.8) 6.6 6.4 

Elementary occupations 44,300 (13.1) 11.5 10.9 

Source: Annual Population Survey, NOMIS ONS January 2010/December 2010 

Table 12: Qualifications of Residents 

Area 

% of Residents with 

no Qualifications * 

% of Residents with 

NVQ4 or Higher 

Qualification * 

Renfrewshire 15,000 (13.6) 41,400 (37.5) 

Glasgow City 68,100 (16.6) 163,900 (40.1) 

Scotland (11.6) (37.2) 

Great Britain (10.6) (32.9) 

Source: Annual Population Survey January 2011 / December 2011, * proportion of working age 

population 

3366706v3 P37

(Computer generated images are for illustrative purposes only)

Supporting documents - Renfrewshire Council

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