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Private Equity and Venture Capital in Brazil - BVCA admin

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In partnership with<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

In partnership with<br />

In association with Offshore jurisdiction<br />

sponsor<br />

Support<strong>in</strong>g sponsor


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Open<strong>in</strong>g Remarks<br />

Mark Florman<br />

Chief Executive, <strong>BVCA</strong> <strong>and</strong> Chairman of the Forum<br />

In partnership with


In partnership with<br />

In association with Offshore jurisdiction sponsor<br />

Support<strong>in</strong>g sponsor<br />

In partnership with


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Welcome Remarks<br />

Sidney Chameh<br />

President, <strong>Brazil</strong>ian <strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Venture</strong><br />

<strong>Capital</strong> Association<br />

In partnership with


Sidney Chameh, Chairman, A<strong>BVCA</strong>P<br />

presidente@abvcap.com.br<br />

November 2011<br />

London & Madrid<br />

5


Agenda<br />

• <strong>Brazil</strong>: A Macro Overview<br />

• <strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

• A<strong>BVCA</strong>P<br />

Source: IBGE, IPEA.<br />

6


A Brief Macro Overview<br />

30.0%<br />

25.0%<br />

20.0%<br />

15.0%<br />

10.0%<br />

5.0%<br />

0.0%<br />

15.0%<br />

13.0%<br />

11.0%<br />

9.0%<br />

7.0%<br />

5.0%<br />

3.0%<br />

1.0%<br />

-1.0%<br />

-3.0%<br />

-5.0%<br />

16.4%<br />

13.0%<br />

1948<br />

15.3%<br />

1950<br />

1952<br />

Post-war<br />

1954<br />

1956<br />

1958<br />

1960<br />

1962<br />

1964<br />

1966<br />

Total Investments <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong> as a % of GDP<br />

<strong>Private</strong><br />

16.1% 15.9% 16.4%<br />

12.6% 13.5% 13.2%<br />

13.4%<br />

17.4%<br />

14.5%<br />

Public<br />

19.1%<br />

15.5%<br />

3.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9% 3.6% 4.3%<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> GDP Evolution (YoY Change %)<br />

Economic miracle<br />

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E<br />

12.6%<br />

1968<br />

1970<br />

Sources (top left to bottom right): Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) – 2010; M<strong>in</strong>istério da Fazenda; Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV).<br />

1972<br />

1974<br />

1976<br />

1978<br />

1980<br />

1982<br />

Lost decade<br />

“Chicken hops”<br />

1984<br />

1986<br />

1988<br />

1990<br />

1992<br />

1994<br />

Middle & Lower Income Class as a % of Population <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

1996<br />

1998<br />

Real Plan<br />

Total Middle Class (C Class) Lower Income Level (E Class)<br />

16.9%<br />

18.4%<br />

20.4%<br />

21.6%<br />

23.0%<br />

24.1%<br />

2000<br />

29% 30% 28% 24% 23% 21%<br />

2002<br />

2004<br />

2006<br />

18% 18%<br />

42% 42% 44% 46% 48% 50% 52% 53%<br />

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />

2008<br />

2010


Challenges<br />

Infrastructure<br />

Education<br />

Fiscal deficit<br />

Social security<br />

Labour laws<br />

Tax system<br />

Red tape<br />

In spite of <strong>Brazil</strong> s favourable<br />

position <strong>in</strong> the global scenario, there<br />

are still several deficiencies that<br />

prevent the economy from<br />

exp<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g at a faster pace.<br />

8


Opportunities<br />

Growth: <strong>Brazil</strong> is now the 7 th largest<br />

economy <strong>in</strong> the world, 2014/5 to become<br />

the fifth <strong>in</strong> the global rank<strong>in</strong>g;<br />

Consolidated Democracy: political<br />

stability with +15 years of low <strong>in</strong>flation<br />

<strong>and</strong> economic growth.<br />

Emerg<strong>in</strong>g middle class: Over the past<br />

decade, +35 million <strong>Brazil</strong>ians have<br />

entered the middle class.<br />

Matur<strong>in</strong>g capital markets: BMF&Bovespa<br />

is now the 4th largest listed exchange <strong>in</strong><br />

the world. Exit opportunities for PE.<br />

Infrastructure: Great dem<strong>and</strong> for<br />

<strong>in</strong>frastructure will pull <strong>in</strong> new <strong>in</strong>vestments<br />

to almost all sectors. Estimates show that<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>frastructure will jump<br />

from US$ 216 bi to US$ 1 tri by 2020.<br />

9


PE/VC <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong> Timel<strong>in</strong>e<br />

1994-1998<br />

Real Plan<br />

CVM 209<br />

First cycle of<br />

PE/VC funds<br />

beg<strong>in</strong>s<br />

PE/VC fund<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments<br />

dur<strong>in</strong>g the<br />

privatization<br />

period<br />

1999-2002<br />

Investments<br />

reduced<br />

due to currency<br />

devaluation,<br />

energy crises <strong>and</strong><br />

pre-electoral<br />

<strong>in</strong>security.<br />

A<strong>BVCA</strong>P is founded<br />

<strong>in</strong> 2000<br />

2003-08<br />

CVM 391<br />

New Bovespa<br />

Market<br />

BRIC thesis<br />

Acceleration of<br />

IPO process<br />

First PE/VC<br />

fund cycle<br />

ends<br />

2009-Today<br />

New PE/VC funds<br />

cycle beg<strong>in</strong>s<br />

More global GP<br />

players<br />

Consolidation of<br />

LP s participation<br />

Increas<strong>in</strong>g fund<br />

commitment<br />

through FINEP s<br />

Inovar Program<br />

10


<strong>Brazil</strong> PE/VC <strong>in</strong> Numbers<br />

Fundrais<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> Investment (US$m)<br />

6000<br />

5000<br />

4000<br />

3000<br />

2000<br />

1000<br />

270 321 480 474<br />

261 230<br />

120 158<br />

0<br />

Source: EMPEA.<br />

2098<br />

1342<br />

5285<br />

2510<br />

3589<br />

3020<br />

989 1078<br />

401<br />

4604<br />

3000<br />

977<br />

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1H<br />

2011<br />

Fundrais<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Investment<br />

INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT<br />

+ 90 <strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> / <strong>Venture</strong><br />

<strong>Capital</strong> firms<br />

Diversified base of <strong>in</strong>vestors with<br />

top 20 pension funds,<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>ian Development Bank,<br />

Innovation agency, HNW<br />

+500 portfolio companies<br />

currently managed <strong>and</strong> from 2005<br />

to 2009: 490 new / follow-on<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments<br />

41 backed IPO’s (approx R$<br />

25.5 Billion) from 2004-2010<br />

11


Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Environment<br />

Source: LAVCA.<br />

12


<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> Funds (FIPs)<br />

Most usual <strong>in</strong>vestment vehicle <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>.<br />

Closed-end <strong>in</strong>vestment funds<br />

(condom<strong>in</strong>ium) with the purpose of<br />

<strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>ian listed or non listed<br />

companies or even <strong>in</strong> other funds regulated<br />

by CVM (<strong>Brazil</strong>ian Security Commission);<br />

Key driver: Beneficial tax treatment <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Requirements for tax exemption:<br />

• Comply with all CVM rules:<br />

• Ownership – Investors (along with related<br />

parties) must own less than 40% of FIP quotas.<br />

• Tax Haven – None of the <strong>in</strong>vestors should be <strong>in</strong><br />

a tax haven jurisdiction.<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P.<br />

Seller<br />

Target<br />

LLC 1 LLC 2 LLC 3<br />

<strong>Equity</strong> <strong>Equity</strong><br />

FIP<br />

Hold Co<br />

S/A<br />

<strong>Equity</strong><br />

Debt<br />

<strong>Equity</strong><br />

<strong>Brazil</strong><br />

13<br />

US


A<strong>BVCA</strong>P<br />

The <strong>Brazil</strong>ian PE&VC Association was founded <strong>in</strong> 2000 to promote <strong>and</strong><br />

develop long-term <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>.<br />

More than 170 members, (90 <strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> / <strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> firms<br />

<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g local <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational managers), major <strong>in</strong>stitutional LP <strong>and</strong><br />

service providers.<br />

Mutual Cooperation Agreements: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P has strong partnerships with<br />

sister-associations, exp<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g.<br />

Partnerships with Key Stakeholders: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P works closely with important<br />

global, regional <strong>and</strong> local entities to promote long-term <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> the<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> Some of these partnerships <strong>in</strong>clude:<br />

• ApexBrasil, IDB (MIF), ABDI, F<strong>in</strong>ep <strong>and</strong> BMF&Bovespa.<br />

14


Priorities<br />

Advocacy &<br />

Institutional<br />

Position<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Regulation &<br />

Development<br />

Pillars for Development<br />

Data Base &<br />

Knowledgement<br />

Compliance<br />

<strong>and</strong> Best<br />

Practices<br />

Resources Coordenation<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>ian PE <strong>in</strong>dustry strengthen<strong>in</strong>g<br />

A<strong>BVCA</strong>P<br />

Integration<br />

<strong>and</strong><br />

Sustentability<br />

15


A<strong>BVCA</strong>P s Executive Committees<br />

Institutional Investors Committee: The IIC aims to underst<strong>and</strong> <strong>and</strong> br<strong>in</strong>g<br />

the needs of these <strong>in</strong>vestors <strong>and</strong> those of other private equity <strong>and</strong> venture<br />

capital <strong>in</strong>dustry players.<br />

Regulatory Committee: Review <strong>and</strong> improve the <strong>in</strong>dustry regulation. •<br />

Implement the auto-regulation code of conduct for the private equity <strong>and</strong><br />

venture capital <strong>in</strong>dustry; Reduce adm<strong>in</strong>istrative costs <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>crease the<br />

efficiency for fund formation.<br />

Entrepreneurship, Innovation <strong>and</strong> Seed <strong>Capital</strong> Committee: Foment the<br />

capitalization of entrepreneurial <strong>in</strong>itiatives that are aligned with corporate<br />

governance practices <strong>and</strong> promote synergy with the venture capital<br />

segment of the <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />

Governance <strong>and</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance Committee: The Governance <strong>and</strong> F<strong>in</strong>ance<br />

Committee aims to assist <strong>and</strong> guide the Board of Directors <strong>in</strong> their<br />

statutory responsibilities regard<strong>in</strong>g A<strong>BVCA</strong>P’s best corporate governance<br />

practices <strong>and</strong> adm<strong>in</strong>istrative <strong>and</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial procedures.<br />

Infrastructure Committee: Increase <strong>in</strong>vestment to the <strong>in</strong>frastructure<br />

sector.<br />

16


A<strong>BVCA</strong>P Data<br />

Benefits:<br />

Data accuracy<br />

Transparency<br />

Enable quantification <strong>and</strong> monitor<strong>in</strong>g<br />

with<strong>in</strong> the <strong>in</strong>dustry<br />

Promote credibility <strong>and</strong> st<strong>and</strong>ardization<br />

of practices <strong>and</strong> processes<br />

Activity <strong>and</strong> performance to be measured<br />

Better “sell” of the <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> terms of<br />

job creation, taxes <strong>and</strong> wealth<br />

17


A<strong>BVCA</strong>P: New Onl<strong>in</strong>e Directory<br />

In 2010, we published the first guide to the lead<strong>in</strong>g players <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong> s<br />

PE/VC. In 2011, we will enhance this service <strong>and</strong> launch the first ever,<br />

<strong>in</strong>teractive, onl<strong>in</strong>e platform to provide users with <strong>in</strong>-depth details about<br />

the <strong>Brazil</strong>ian <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />

Pr<strong>in</strong>t version<br />

New Onl<strong>in</strong>e Version<br />

18


Thank you!<br />

Sidney Chameh<br />

Chairman, A<strong>BVCA</strong>P<br />

presidente@abvcap.com.br<br />

www.abvcap.com.br<br />

19


In partnership with<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

In partnership with<br />

In association with Offshore jurisdiction<br />

sponsor<br />

Support<strong>in</strong>g sponsor


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Secular Trends <strong>and</strong><br />

Foreign Shocks<br />

Assess<strong>in</strong>g their impact on<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Luis Fern<strong>and</strong>o Lopes<br />

CEO Patria Investments UK, Patria Investmentos<br />

In partnership with


S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

“Secular trends <strong>and</strong> foreign shocks: assess<strong>in</strong>g<br />

their impact on <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>”<br />

November 2011


22549-d-092308<br />

Important Notice<br />

Any recipient of this presentation (the “Presentation”) must: (a) Limit the recipients of copies of the presentation or summaries of its content to a limited number of colleagues at<br />

his or her firm solely on a “need to know” basis; (b) Under no circumstances give the Presentation, copies thereof, or summaries of its contents, nor provide any <strong>in</strong>formation<br />

conta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> it, to any person outside one’s firm; (c) Require colleagues who are <strong>in</strong> receipt of the Presentation or summaries thereof to comply with the requests set forth <strong>in</strong> the<br />

preced<strong>in</strong>g clauses (a) <strong>and</strong> (b).<br />

The follow<strong>in</strong>g Presentation is be<strong>in</strong>g provided to certa<strong>in</strong> selected <strong>in</strong>stitutional <strong>and</strong> sophisticated <strong>in</strong>vestors <strong>in</strong> one-on-one presentations on a confidential basis for <strong>in</strong>formational<br />

<strong>and</strong> discussion purposes only <strong>and</strong> does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an <strong>in</strong>terest <strong>in</strong> any current or future <strong>in</strong>vestment vehicle sponsored by<br />

Patria Investimentos S.A. or its affiliates, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g its predecessor Banco Patrimonio de Investimento S.A. <strong>and</strong> its activities, where applicable (“Patria”). Any such offer or<br />

solicitation shall be made only pursuant to a confidential private placement memor<strong>and</strong>um for the relevant fund which supersedes <strong>and</strong> qualifies <strong>in</strong> its entirety all the <strong>in</strong>formation<br />

set forth <strong>in</strong> this Presentation. This Presentation does not constitute a part of the Memor<strong>and</strong>um <strong>and</strong> recipients should not construe the contents of this Presentation as f<strong>in</strong>ancial,<br />

legal, account<strong>in</strong>g, tax or <strong>in</strong>vestment advice.<br />

In consider<strong>in</strong>g the performance <strong>in</strong>formation conta<strong>in</strong>ed here<strong>in</strong>, recipients should bear <strong>in</strong> m<strong>in</strong>d that past performance is not necessarily <strong>in</strong>dicative of future results, <strong>and</strong> there can<br />

be no assurance unrealized return projections will be met. Unless otherwise <strong>in</strong>dicated, all <strong>in</strong>ternal rates of return <strong>and</strong> multiples of <strong>in</strong>vested capital are presented on a “gross”<br />

basis (i.e., they do not reflect management fees, “carried <strong>in</strong>terest,” taxes, transactions costs <strong>and</strong> other expenses borne by <strong>in</strong>vestors, which reduce returns <strong>and</strong>, <strong>in</strong> the aggregate,<br />

may be substantial). Any such Gross MOIs used here<strong>in</strong> represent the total value (realized or unrealized) of an <strong>in</strong>vestor’s <strong>in</strong>vestment as a multiple of <strong>in</strong>vested capital prior to the<br />

payment of any expenses. “Gross IRR” <strong>and</strong> “Net IRR” shall mean an aggregate, annual, compound, gross or net, as applicable, <strong>in</strong>ternal rate of return on <strong>in</strong>vestments,<br />

calculated based on daily <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong>flows <strong>and</strong> outflows, with the returns reported on an annual basis. Gross leveraged IRRs present the gross annual <strong>in</strong>ternal rate of return<br />

after the effects of debt f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g (at either the fund or asset level) is taken <strong>in</strong>to consideration. Net IRRs are after all management fees, carried <strong>in</strong>terest, transaction costs <strong>and</strong><br />

other expenses (other than taxes borne or to be borne by <strong>in</strong>vestors, <strong>and</strong> are generally substantially lower. Net leveraged IRRs present the net annual <strong>in</strong>ternal rate of return to<br />

the <strong>in</strong>vestor after the effects of debt f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g (at either the fund or property level) is taken <strong>in</strong>to consideration. A hypothetical illustration of the effect of carried <strong>in</strong>terest,<br />

transactions costs <strong>and</strong> other expenses on “Gross IRRs” <strong>and</strong> “Gross MOIs” is available upon request. Projections <strong>and</strong>/or future unrealized values of currently unrealized<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments will depend on, among other factors, future operat<strong>in</strong>g results, the value of the assets <strong>and</strong> market <strong>and</strong> other conditions at the time of disposition, legal <strong>and</strong><br />

contractual restrictions on transfer that may limit liquidity, any related transaction costs <strong>and</strong> the tim<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> manner of sale, all of which may differ from the assumptions <strong>and</strong><br />

circumstances on which current unrealized valuations are based <strong>and</strong> many of which are difficult to predict <strong>and</strong> are beyond Patria’s control. Furthermore, the global economy,<br />

<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>, has recently experienced periods of significant market volatility. If these unrealized <strong>in</strong>vestments were to be liquidated under current market conditions, the<br />

values obta<strong>in</strong>ed could be, with respect to such <strong>in</strong>vestments, materially lower than those <strong>in</strong>dicated <strong>in</strong> the projected returns shown. Accord<strong>in</strong>gly, the actual realized returns on<br />

unrealized <strong>in</strong>vestments may differ materially from the returns <strong>in</strong>dicated here<strong>in</strong>. Moreover, certa<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation here<strong>in</strong> is presented <strong>in</strong> U.S. dollars, however Patria’s <strong>in</strong>vestments<br />

generally are denom<strong>in</strong>ated <strong>in</strong> Reais <strong>and</strong> hence a portion of the value of unrealized <strong>in</strong>vestments will depend on the relative strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar to the Real.<br />

Unrealized returns are not to be relied upon as facts <strong>and</strong> there can be no assurance that such results will be achieved.<br />

Certa<strong>in</strong> of the past performance <strong>in</strong>formation, selected examples <strong>and</strong> case studies presented here<strong>in</strong> may not be representative of all transactions of a given type or of Patria’s<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments generally. The <strong>in</strong>vestment strategy, size <strong>and</strong> type of <strong>in</strong>vestments with respect to which such past performance <strong>in</strong>formation relates may differ <strong>in</strong> one or more respects<br />

from the <strong>in</strong>vestment strategy generally employed by Patria’s <strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> Group <strong>and</strong> the results of certa<strong>in</strong> past performance set forth here<strong>in</strong>, may be attributable to the<br />

activities of <strong>in</strong>vestment professionals that do not participate <strong>in</strong> Patria’s <strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> Group.<br />

Certa<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation conta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> this Presentation constitutes “forward-look<strong>in</strong>g statements,” which can be identified by the use of forward-look<strong>in</strong>g term<strong>in</strong>ology such as “may,”<br />

“will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target,” “project,” “estimate,” “<strong>in</strong>tend,” “cont<strong>in</strong>ue” or “believe,” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable<br />

term<strong>in</strong>ology. Due to various risks <strong>and</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties, actual events or results or the actual performance of any fund or <strong>in</strong>vestment discussed here<strong>in</strong> may differ materially from<br />

those reflected or contemplated <strong>in</strong> such forward-look<strong>in</strong>g statements. Any projections, market outlooks or estimates <strong>in</strong> this Presentation are forward-look<strong>in</strong>g statements <strong>and</strong> are<br />

based upon certa<strong>in</strong> assumptions. Other events which were not taken <strong>in</strong>to account may occur <strong>and</strong> may significantly affect any fund or <strong>in</strong>vestment discussed here<strong>in</strong>. Any<br />

outlooks <strong>and</strong> assumptions should not be construed to be <strong>in</strong>dicative of the actual events which will occur.<br />

Certa<strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>formation conta<strong>in</strong>ed here<strong>in</strong> (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g targets, forward-look<strong>in</strong>g statements, economic <strong>and</strong> market <strong>in</strong>formation <strong>and</strong> portfolio company data) has been obta<strong>in</strong>ed from<br />

published sources <strong>and</strong>/or prepared by third parties (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g portfolio companies) <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> certa<strong>in</strong> cases has not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources<br />

are believed to be reliable for the purpose used here<strong>in</strong>, none of Patria or any of its directors, officers, employees, partners, members, shareholders or affiliates, or any other<br />

person assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such <strong>in</strong>formation.<br />

Patria does not have any obligation to update the <strong>in</strong>formation conta<strong>in</strong>ed here<strong>in</strong>.<br />

23


22549-d-092308<br />

Three fundamental issues that drive <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

I. The widen<strong>in</strong>g growth gap between emerg<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> developed economies<br />

II. <strong>Brazil</strong>: domestic market oriented but with an edge on commodities<br />

III. Challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities:<br />

An underleveraged economy<br />

Subpar <strong>in</strong>vestment spend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Highly volatile asset prices<br />

IV. Foreign environment: foe or friend?<br />

V. Historical data <strong>and</strong> forecasts<br />

24


I. The widen<strong>in</strong>g growth gap between emerg<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong><br />

developed economies<br />

There was a secular change <strong>in</strong> the world l<strong>and</strong>scape<br />

before the f<strong>in</strong>ancial crash of 2007-08.<br />

The share of emerg<strong>in</strong>g economies <strong>in</strong> global GDP was<br />

ris<strong>in</strong>g steadily ow<strong>in</strong>g to their much higher growth pace.<br />

Recent evidence suggests that growth differential <strong>in</strong><br />

favor of emerg<strong>in</strong>g economies has widened further.<br />

Participation of emerg<strong>in</strong>g markets <strong>in</strong> global <strong>in</strong>vestors’<br />

portfolio is a small fraction of their share <strong>in</strong> global growth.<br />

<strong>Capital</strong> flows <strong>and</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial wealth are <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly<br />

gravitat<strong>in</strong>g around emerg<strong>in</strong>g economies.<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

Emerg<strong>in</strong>g markets: net capital flows <strong>and</strong> reserves<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

US$ billion per year US$ billion per year<br />

-200<br />

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008<br />

Net capital flows (left)<br />

Change <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>ternational reserves (right)<br />

Source: International F<strong>in</strong>ancial Statistics (FMI).<br />

1,500<br />

1,200<br />

900<br />

600<br />

300<br />

0<br />

-300<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

Real GDP growth<br />

Real GDP growth per year; % Forecast<br />

-4<br />

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016<br />

Advanced economies Emerg<strong>in</strong>g markets<br />

Source: International F<strong>in</strong>ancial Statistics (FMI).<br />

Participation <strong>in</strong> global GDP (adjusted for PPP)<br />

Share<br />

Forecast<br />

100%<br />

80%<br />

60%<br />

40%<br />

20%<br />

0%<br />

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016<br />

Advanced economies Emerg<strong>in</strong>g markets<br />

Source: International F<strong>in</strong>ancial Statistics (FMI).<br />

25


II. <strong>Brazil</strong>: domestic market oriented but with an edge on<br />

commodities<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

Cont<strong>in</strong>ental dimensions: 8.5 million km 2 ; GDP of R$3.7<br />

trillion (US$2.1 trillion); 191 million <strong>in</strong>habitants with median<br />

age of 29 years; urbanization rate = 87%.<br />

Pattern of aggregate expenditure reveals an <strong>in</strong>wardoriented<br />

economy (data as of 2010):<br />

Household consumption = 61% of GDP<br />

Government consumption = 21%<br />

Gross fixed capital formation = 19%<br />

<br />

<br />

Exports goods & services = 11%<br />

Imports goods & services = -12%<br />

Net = -1%<br />

Local drivers set the pace of economic activity over the<br />

long haul <strong>and</strong> foreign factors generate fluctuations<br />

around this primary trend.<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

-4<br />

GDP x domestic absorption x foreign dem<strong>and</strong><br />

Accum. 12-m chg. % Accum. 12-m chg. %<br />

Domestic absorption avg. 2000-09: 97% of GDP growth<br />

Foreign dem<strong>and</strong> avg. 2000-09: 3% of GDP growth<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

Contribution of foreign dem<strong>and</strong> Contribution of domestic absorption GDP<br />

Source: IBGE <strong>and</strong> Pátria Investimentos.<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

-2<br />

-4<br />

Exports goods & services to GDP (2010)<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Advanced countries<br />

World<br />

Emerg<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Euro area<br />

New Ind. Asia<br />

Source: International F<strong>in</strong>ancial Statistics (IMF).<br />

90%<br />

70%<br />

50%<br />

30%<br />

0 20 40 60 80 100<br />

% of GDP<br />

GDP breakdown by expenditure up to 2010<br />

Share <strong>in</strong> GDP<br />

3.9% 3.6% 2.9% 1.5% 0.2%<br />

17.1% 16.2% 16.8% 18.3% 20.7% 16.5% 19.2%<br />

19.2% 19.9% 20.0% 20.3% 20.2%<br />

21.8% 21.2%<br />

59.8% 60.3% 60.3% 59.9% 58.9% 61.7% 60.6%<br />

10%<br />

-0.1%<br />

-10% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009<br />

-1.0%<br />

2010<br />

Household consumption Government consumption<br />

GFKF** Net exports<br />

Note (*): Gross Fixed capital Formation = <strong>in</strong>vestment spend<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

Source: IBGE.<br />

26


II. <strong>Brazil</strong>: domestic market oriented but with an edge on<br />

commodities<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> is a very diversified economy with prom<strong>in</strong>ence of<br />

activities centered on the domestic market <strong>and</strong> the<br />

edge on commodities is a plus to this dynamic.<br />

Fundamental trend: decrease <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>come <strong>in</strong>equality <strong>and</strong><br />

absolute poverty s<strong>in</strong>ce stabilization <strong>in</strong> the mid-90’s<br />

S<strong>in</strong>ce 1993, 60 million left poverty <strong>and</strong> were <strong>in</strong>corporated<br />

<strong>in</strong>to middle class ranks; 66% of this improvement derives<br />

from market factors.<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> has become a medium class country, 55% of<br />

population, where households report <strong>in</strong>come up to<br />

US$33,000 per year.<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

Per capita <strong>in</strong>come ga<strong>in</strong> by social bracket 2001-09<br />

80<br />

Accumulated change %<br />

70 69<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

61<br />

56<br />

51<br />

46<br />

43<br />

35<br />

29<br />

20<br />

10<br />

21<br />

13<br />

0<br />

E2 E1 D2 D1 C2 C1 B2 B1 A2 A1<br />

Very poor/poor Middle class Wealthy<br />

Source: Source: Neri, M. (2010) - “The New Middle Class <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong> – The<br />

Bright Side of the Poor”, FGV-CPS, Rio de Janeiro.<br />

Smaller x Greater <strong>in</strong>equality<br />

Income <strong>in</strong>equality <strong>and</strong> absolute poverty <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

0.62<br />

0.60<br />

0.58<br />

0.56<br />

0.54<br />

0.52<br />

% of total population<br />

6 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 12<br />

31<br />

63<br />

G<strong>in</strong>i <strong>in</strong>dex % of population<br />

0<br />

1995 1997 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010*<br />

Inequality (left) Poverty (right)<br />

Note(*): prelim<strong>in</strong>ary.<br />

Source: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica e Aplicada (IPEA).<br />

Evolution of social classes <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

38 40 42 45 47 49 50<br />

54 55<br />

55 53 50 46 43 40 39 34 33<br />

1993 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

Very Poor/Poor: up to US$640/month Middle Class: US$640 to 2.750/month<br />

Wealthy: More than US$2.750/month<br />

Source: Neri, M.C. (2011) – “Os Emergentes dos Emergentes: Reflexões Globais e<br />

Ações Locais para a Nova Classe Média Brasileira”, FGV-IBRE, CPS, Rio de Janeiro.<br />

18<br />

15<br />

12<br />

9<br />

6<br />

3<br />

27


II. <strong>Brazil</strong>: domestic market oriented but with an edge on<br />

commodities<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> is a resource rich country, with a competitive edge<br />

<strong>in</strong> the production of several commodities.<br />

Gra<strong>in</strong>s, m<strong>in</strong>erals <strong>and</strong> animal prote<strong>in</strong>s are a dependable<br />

source of export receipts <strong>and</strong> hard currency <strong>in</strong>flows.<br />

More importantly, abundant commodities provide a low<br />

cost supply of raw materials for the local <strong>in</strong>dustry.<br />

Commodity dom<strong>in</strong>ate <strong>Brazil</strong>ian stock market <strong>in</strong>dices<br />

( 40%) but services account for over 60% of GDP.<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

1. Saudi Arabia<br />

2. Venezuela<br />

3. Iran<br />

4. Iraq<br />

5. Kuwait<br />

6. UAE<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> (Pre-Salt)<br />

7. Russia<br />

8. Libya<br />

9. Kazakhstan<br />

10. Nigeria<br />

11. Canada<br />

12. United States<br />

13. Qatar<br />

14. Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

15. <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

16. Angola<br />

17. Algeria<br />

18. Mexico<br />

19. Azerbaijan<br />

20. Norway<br />

World’s proven oil reserves (2010)<br />

Billion boe<br />

0 50 100 150 200 250 300<br />

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011.<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>’s production of agricultural commodities (2010-11)<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

% of world production<br />

World major exporters of animal prote<strong>in</strong> (2010)<br />

% of world exports<br />

Source: U.S.D.A.<br />

40 38<br />

36 34<br />

20<br />

13<br />

33<br />

Coffee Orange Ethanol Soybeans Sugar<br />

Source: U.S.D.A.<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> U.S. E.U. Australia<br />

11<br />

29<br />

4<br />

Poultry meat Beef<br />

0<br />

24<br />

18<br />

28


9<br />

6<br />

3<br />

0<br />

-3<br />

-6<br />

-9<br />

-12<br />

-15<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

III. Challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> entered the global recession very late <strong>and</strong><br />

bounced back quickly.<br />

Activity exp<strong>and</strong>ed until 1H11 <strong>and</strong> is now slow<strong>in</strong>g down<br />

ow<strong>in</strong>g mostly to previous monetary <strong>and</strong> credit tighten<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

There are structural deficiencies that play an important<br />

role <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>’s bus<strong>in</strong>ess cycles over the long haul:<br />

lack of credit <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustry fragmentation<br />

modest <strong>in</strong>vestment spend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

high asset price volatility<br />

Real wage ga<strong>in</strong>s x unemployment <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

% 3-m/3-m oya<br />

-18<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

Source: IBGE.<br />

% of labor force<br />

Avg. real earn<strong>in</strong>gs (left) Unemployment (right)<br />

14<br />

13<br />

12<br />

11<br />

10<br />

9<br />

8<br />

7<br />

6<br />

5<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

% 3-m/3-m oya % 3-m/3-m oya<br />

-5<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

Source: IBGE.<br />

Real retail sales <strong>and</strong> credit <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Broad retail Credit outstad<strong>in</strong>g<br />

UPC & bus<strong>in</strong>ess confidence <strong>in</strong> the <strong>Brazil</strong>ian <strong>in</strong>dustry<br />

90<br />

85<br />

80<br />

75<br />

% of total Index<br />

UPC<br />

Last = 83.5%<br />

Máx = 86.7%<br />

Avg. 2005-08 = 84.2%<br />

70<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

Plant capacity (left) Bus<strong>in</strong>ess confidence (right)<br />

Note(*): UPC st<strong>and</strong>s for utilization of plant capacity.<br />

Source: Fundação Getulio Vargas.<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

-5<br />

130<br />

120<br />

110<br />

100<br />

29


III. Challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities:<br />

an underleveraged economy<br />

Credit to GDP ratio <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong> is 48%, well below the level<br />

portrayed by middle-<strong>in</strong>come countries (at around 60%).<br />

Long term f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g is <strong>in</strong>sufficient; most medium <strong>and</strong><br />

small firms have very <strong>in</strong>efficient capital structures.<br />

Opportunity: scarcity of capital implies very high IRRs for<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment without leverag<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

Opportunity: <strong>in</strong>adequate capital structures entail <strong>in</strong>dustry<br />

fragmentation <strong>and</strong> fertile ground for consolidation.<br />

Opportunity: elementary f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>struments (e.g.<br />

mortgage) are still <strong>in</strong> their <strong>in</strong>fancy.<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

Outst<strong>and</strong><strong>in</strong>g credit to GDP (2009)<br />

Source: Bradesco Economic letter dated 5-Apr-2011.<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

Volume of credit <strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong>terest rates charged<br />

% per year<br />

0<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />

Source: Banco Central do Brasil.<br />

Avg. rate charged on firms<br />

Avg. rate charged on <strong>in</strong>dividuals<br />

Average size of 50 largest firms (selected <strong>in</strong>dicators)<br />

Total Assets to GDP<br />

(%)<br />

<strong>Capital</strong> to GDP (%)<br />

Developed economies 0.979 0.375<br />

Develop<strong>in</strong>g ex-Lat<strong>in</strong><br />

America<br />

0.972 0.466<br />

Lat<strong>in</strong> America 0.472 0.269<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> 0.414 0.188<br />

Source: Herrera A. M. & Lora, E. (2005): “Why So Small? Expla<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g the<br />

Size of Firms <strong>in</strong> Lat<strong>in</strong> America”, Inter-american Development Bank.<br />

30


III. Challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities:<br />

subpar <strong>in</strong>vestment spend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

In spite of a very successful macroeconomic story, <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

still reports modest <strong>in</strong>vestment spend<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

Any upbeat tone of the economy rapidly raises utilization<br />

of capacity to maximum <strong>and</strong> triggers <strong>in</strong>flation pressures.<br />

Opportunity: attractive greenfield <strong>and</strong> brownfield<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment projects are plentiful.<br />

Opportunity: tight fiscal policy needed to tackle <strong>in</strong>flation<br />

restra<strong>in</strong>s federal spend<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

The government needs to attract private CAPEX to complement<br />

its <strong>in</strong>vestment programs <strong>and</strong> will have to adopt a more market<br />

friendly approach towards local <strong>and</strong> foreign <strong>in</strong>vestors<br />

U.S.<br />

Australia<br />

S<strong>in</strong>gapore<br />

Russia<br />

Greece<br />

Chile<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Electric power consumption<br />

kWh per capita per year<br />

Norway<br />

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000<br />

Source: World Bank Development Report 2010.<br />

Gross fixed capital formation (<strong>in</strong>vestment) compared<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

% to GDP<br />

0<br />

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> World Emerg<strong>in</strong>g Markets<br />

Note(*): estimate.<br />

Source: International F<strong>in</strong>ancial Statistics (IMF).<br />

“Do<strong>in</strong>g Bus<strong>in</strong>ess” rank<strong>in</strong>g of competitiveness (1 to 183)<br />

1. S<strong>in</strong>gapore<br />

2. Hong Kong<br />

3. New Zeal<strong>and</strong><br />

4. U.S.<br />

91. Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

120. Russia<br />

126. <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

132. India<br />

Source: World Bank.<br />

31


III. Challenges <strong>and</strong> opportunities:<br />

highly volatile asset prices<br />

Globalization caused foreign capital flows to gradually<br />

comm<strong>and</strong> the prices of liquid <strong>Brazil</strong>ian assets.<br />

The prom<strong>in</strong>ence of short term, unstable portfolio<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment entails high volatility of asset prices.<br />

Opportunity: asset volatility is much higher than it should<br />

be as long as economic fundamentals are concerned<br />

Opportunity: anti-cyclical behavior pays off h<strong>and</strong>somely<br />

60<br />

55<br />

50<br />

45<br />

40<br />

35<br />

30<br />

22549-d-092308<br />

Bullish tone divestment + capital rais<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Sour sentiment capital deployment<br />

2000<br />

Net fiscal debt <strong>and</strong> external <strong>in</strong>debtedness<br />

% of GDP % of GDP<br />

2001<br />

2002<br />

2003<br />

2004<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Public debt (left) Foreign debt (right)<br />

Source: Banco Central do Brasil.<br />

2011<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

90<br />

75<br />

60<br />

45<br />

30<br />

15<br />

0<br />

-15<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>: net FDI <strong>and</strong> foreign portfolio <strong>in</strong>vestment<br />

2000<br />

US$ Billion 12-m US$ Billion 12-m<br />

2001<br />

2002<br />

2003<br />

2004<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Short term portfolio Long term FDI<br />

Source: Banco Central do Brasil.<br />

4.00<br />

3.50<br />

3.00<br />

2.50<br />

2.00<br />

1.50<br />

1.00<br />

Source: Banco Central do Brasil <strong>and</strong> Patria Investimentos.<br />

2011<br />

Nom<strong>in</strong>al exchange rate x currency volatility<br />

2000<br />

R$ per US$ % change<br />

2001<br />

2002<br />

2003<br />

2004<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

2011<br />

Avg.FX 00Q1 = R$1.77 per US$ Avg.FX 11Q3 = R$1.64 per US$<br />

Nom<strong>in</strong>al FX (left) FX changes (right)<br />

90<br />

75<br />

60<br />

45<br />

30<br />

15<br />

0<br />

-15<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

-5<br />

-10<br />

-15<br />

-20<br />

32


22549-d-092308<br />

IV. Foreign environment: foe or friend?<br />

Slower global growth negatively affects <strong>Brazil</strong> through two<br />

ma<strong>in</strong> channels:<br />

I. Trade balance (relevance = low)<br />

Gross exports account for a bit more than 10% of GDP<br />

Terms of trade for <strong>Brazil</strong> have been improv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> surg<strong>in</strong>g<br />

FDI more than compensates for less vibrant exports<br />

II. Investment spend<strong>in</strong>g (relevance = moderate)<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>’s aggregated CAPEX is quite volatile<br />

Adverse foreign shocks dent bus<strong>in</strong>ess confidence, lead<strong>in</strong>g<br />

to reduced <strong>in</strong>vestment spend<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> slower job creation<br />

There is a third channel of transmission of foreign shocks<br />

that may be activated <strong>in</strong> the case of global meltdown:<br />

III. Consumer purchas<strong>in</strong>g power (relevance = high)<br />

The unleveraged expansion of <strong>Brazil</strong>’s domestic<br />

consumption market highlights the importance of real<br />

disposable <strong>in</strong>come<br />

Adverse foreign shocks significantly affect activity if they<br />

erode real disposable <strong>in</strong>come over the longer term<br />

Cha<strong>in</strong> reaction: sharp currency depreciation higher<br />

<strong>in</strong>flation lower disposable <strong>in</strong>come weaker growth<br />

Most likely scenario: global jitters entail deceleration of<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>’s real GDP growth to 3-4% <strong>in</strong> 2011-12.<br />

90<br />

75<br />

60<br />

45<br />

30<br />

15<br />

0<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>: net FDI <strong>and</strong> terms of trade<br />

Source: Banco Central do Brasil.<br />

28<br />

24<br />

20<br />

16<br />

12<br />

8<br />

4<br />

0<br />

-4<br />

-8<br />

-12<br />

2000<br />

2000<br />

US$ Billion 12-m<br />

2001<br />

Investment spend<strong>in</strong>g x MSCI stock <strong>in</strong>dex<br />

2001<br />

2002<br />

2002<br />

2003<br />

2003<br />

2004<br />

2004<br />

2005<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

% 12-m change % 12-m change<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Total CAPEX (left) MSCI <strong>Brazil</strong> (right)<br />

US$ Billion 12-m<br />

2009<br />

Source: Banco Central do Brasil <strong>and</strong> Patria Investimentos.<br />

2010<br />

Long term FDI (left) Trade balance (right)<br />

2011<br />

2011<br />

100<br />

75<br />

50<br />

25<br />

0<br />

0<br />

-25<br />

-50<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

-10<br />

33


22549-d-092308<br />

V. Historical data <strong>and</strong> forecasts<br />

oya = over-year-ago<br />

aop = average-of-period<br />

eop = end-of-period<br />

1995-2005<br />

average<br />

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />

World real growth %oya 3.6 5.0 4.9 2.8 -0.6 4.9 4.0 3.7 4.5<br />

Advanced economies real growth %oya 2.7 3.0 2.7 0.2 -3.4 3.0 2.0 1.8 2.4<br />

Emerg<strong>in</strong>g markets real growth %oya 5.1 8.2 8.8 6.1 2.7 7.3 6.4 6.1 6.7<br />

Sources: International Monetary Fund, IBGE, Banco Central do Brasil <strong>and</strong> Patria Investimentos (forecasts)<br />

2013-17<br />

average<br />

BRAZIL<br />

Nom<strong>in</strong>al GDP R$ billion 2,369 2,661 3,005 3,143 3,578 3,938 4,290<br />

Nom<strong>in</strong>al GDP US$ billion 1,072 1,314 1,639 1,579 2,034 2,394 2,510<br />

Real GDP %oya 2.6 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.6 7.5 3.4 3.0 4.4<br />

Household consumption %oya 2.4 5.2 6.1 5.7 4.2 7.0 5.0 4.5 4.8<br />

Government outlays %oya 1.9 2.5 5.1 3.1 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.3<br />

Investment spend<strong>in</strong>g %oya 1.8 9.8 13.8 13.6 -10.3 21.8 9.0 8.1 8.9<br />

Exports of good & services %oya 8.0 5.0 6.2 0.6 -10.2 11.5 8.0 7.2 6.7<br />

Imports of good & services %oya 5.3 18.5 19.9 15.4 -11.5 36.2 25.0 22.5 7.3<br />

Consumer price <strong>in</strong>dex (IPCA) %Dec/Dec 7.4 3.1 4.5 5.9 4.3 5.9 6.5 5.7 4.5<br />

General price <strong>in</strong>dex (IGP-M) %Dec/Dec 10.7 3.8 7.8 9.8 -1.7 11.3 5.9 5.5 4.9<br />

Primary fiscal balance % of GDP 2.5 3.9 4.0 4.1 1.4 2.8 3.1 2.5 2.7<br />

Nom<strong>in</strong>al fiscal balance % of GDP -5.7 -3.0 -2.3 -1.5 -3.2 -2.6 -2.9 -3.1 -0.9<br />

Net public debt % of GDP 45.8 47.3 45.5 38.5 42.8 40.2 39.0 40.5 41.6<br />

Short term rate (CDI) % p.a. aop 21.9 15.1 12.0 12.5 9.9 10.0 11.7 10.5 9.0<br />

Real <strong>in</strong>terest rate (Selic/IPCA) % p.a. aop 13.6 11.6 7.2 6.3 5.4 3.9 4.9 4.5 4.3<br />

Trade balance US$ billion 10 46 40 25 25 20 31 22<br />

Exports US$ billion 66 138 161 198 153 202 251 264<br />

Imports US$ billion 56 91 121 173 128 182 220 242<br />

Current account US$ billion -14 14 2 -28 -24 -48 -47 -61<br />

Current account % of GDP -2.0 1.3 0.1 -1.7 -1.5 -2.3 -2.0 -2.4 -1.7<br />

Foreign direct <strong>in</strong>vestment US$ billion 20 19 35 45 26 48 70 50<br />

Gross <strong>in</strong>ternational reserves US$ billion eop 46 86 180 207 239 288 388 411<br />

Exchange rate R$ per US$ aop 2.06 2.18 1.93 1.83 1.99 1.76 1.64 1.71<br />

34


In partnership with<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

In partnership with<br />

In association with Offshore jurisdiction<br />

sponsor<br />

Support<strong>in</strong>g sponsor


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Advantage <strong>and</strong><br />

Challenges of a<br />

Favourite<br />

As one of the most attractive<br />

dest<strong>in</strong>ations for PE/VC<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments, how has the local<br />

scenario changed?<br />

How has the entrance of new<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestors impacted on the<br />

competition of deals,<br />

valuations, deal terms <strong>and</strong> co<strong>in</strong>vestments?<br />

In partnership with


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Advantage <strong>and</strong><br />

Challenges of a<br />

Favourite<br />

Paulo Sérgio Gobbo Mar<strong>in</strong>s (Moderator)<br />

Head of Sales <strong>Brazil</strong> – Securities <strong>and</strong> Fund Services, Citi<br />

Eduardo Oliveira<br />

Partner, Grupo Stratus<br />

Gustavo Peixoto<br />

Investment Manager <strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> Team, Grupo Sant<strong>and</strong>er<br />

Bob Stefanowski<br />

Chairman <strong>and</strong> Manag<strong>in</strong>g Partner, 3i Asia <strong>and</strong> the Americas<br />

In partnership with


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong><br />

<strong>Brazil</strong> Atlas<br />

Christiane Nascimento<br />

A<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

In partnership with


In partnership with<br />

Coffee <strong>and</strong><br />

Network<strong>in</strong>g<br />

In partnership with<br />

In association with Offshore jurisdiction<br />

sponsor<br />

Support<strong>in</strong>g sponsor


In partnership with<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

In partnership with<br />

In association with Offshore jurisdiction<br />

sponsor<br />

Support<strong>in</strong>g sponsor


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

The Regulatory<br />

L<strong>and</strong>scape for<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>Brazil</strong><br />

How to tap opportunities via<br />

<strong>in</strong>ternational or local<br />

structures<br />

In partnership with


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

The Regulatory<br />

L<strong>and</strong>scape for<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Tim Hames (Moderator)<br />

Head of Public Affairs, Communications <strong>and</strong> Campaigns, <strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Mart<strong>in</strong> Pose<br />

Partner Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire<br />

Peter Furci<br />

Partner, Debevoise & Plimpton LLP<br />

In partnership with


THE ROLE OF BRAZILIAN LEGISLATION<br />

IN PE & VC DEALS<br />

November 2011<br />

Mart<strong>in</strong> Miralles Pose<br />

mpose@tozz<strong>in</strong>ifreire.com.br


<strong>Brazil</strong>ian Legal Framework – 180 yrs<br />

Consolidated Legal Environment<br />

FIRST FEDERAL<br />

CONSTITUTION<br />

1824<br />

BANKRUPTCY<br />

LAW<br />

1945 / 2005<br />

TAX<br />

CODE<br />

1966<br />

LAST FEDERAL<br />

CONSTITUTION<br />

1988<br />

COMMERCIAL<br />

CODE<br />

1850<br />

FOREIGN<br />

INVESTMENT<br />

LAW<br />

1962<br />

MINING<br />

CODE<br />

1967<br />

CONSUMERS<br />

CODE<br />

1990<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados<br />

CIVIL<br />

CODE<br />

1916 / 2003<br />

BANKING<br />

LAW<br />

1964<br />

IP<br />

LAWS<br />

1971 / 1996<br />

VENTURE<br />

CAPITAL<br />

1994<br />

CORPORATION<br />

LAW<br />

1940 / 1976<br />

CAPITAL<br />

MARKETS LAW<br />

1965<br />

SECURITIES<br />

LAW<br />

1976<br />

ARBITRATION<br />

LAW<br />

1996<br />

LABOR LAWS<br />

1943<br />

FOREST<br />

CODE<br />

1965<br />

ENVIRONMENTAL<br />

LAW<br />

1981<br />

PRIVATE<br />

EQUITY<br />

2003


Foreign Investment<br />

▪ EQUAL TREATMENT TO FOREIGN AND NATIONAL CAPITAL<br />

▪ FREE INFLOW/OUTFLOW OF FUNDS – RULES OF 1962<br />

▪ CONSOLIDATED BANKING SYSTEM REGULATION SINCE 1964<br />

▪ REGULATED VEHICLES<br />

▪ SPECIFIC PERFORMANCE FOR SHAREHOLDERS AGREEMENT<br />

▪ ENFORCEABILITY OF FOREIGN AND BRAZILIAN ARBITRATION<br />

AWARDS SINCE 1996<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados


Consolidated <strong>Capital</strong> Markets Regulation -<br />

1965<br />

STOCK<br />

EXCHANGE<br />

ASSET<br />

MANAGERS<br />

BROKERS<br />

CUSTODIANS<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados<br />

CVM<br />

AUDITORS<br />

DEPOSITARIES<br />

OTC<br />

FUNDS<br />

DEALERS


Regulated - Vehicles<br />

Foreign Country<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Limited<br />

Liability<br />

Company<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados<br />

Non Listed<br />

Corporation<br />

Foreign<br />

Investor<br />

PE/VC<br />

Fund<br />

Listed<br />

Corporation


Corporate Governance<br />

▪ CORPORATION LAW<br />

• Tag along for vot<strong>in</strong>g<br />

shareholders (80%)<br />

• Reduction of disproportion<br />

between vot<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> non-<br />

vot<strong>in</strong>g<br />

• M<strong>in</strong>ority shareholder on the<br />

board<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados<br />

▪ NOVO MERCADO<br />

• Only vot<strong>in</strong>g shares<br />

• M<strong>in</strong>imum free float of 25%<br />

• Same premium paid to<br />

controll<strong>in</strong>g stake for all<br />

shares<br />

• 20% of <strong>in</strong>dependent<br />

directors<br />

• Compliance with IFRS<br />

• M<strong>and</strong>atory arbitration for<br />

resolution of corporate<br />

disputes


PE / VC FUNDS<br />

▪ CLOSED END INVESTMENT FUNDS (CONDOMINIUM)<br />

▪ INVEST IN BRAZILIAN LISTED AND NON LISTED CORPORATIONS AND<br />

IN OTHER FUNDS<br />

▪ VC ONLY IN EMERGING COMPANIES (BASED ON ANNUAL REVENUES)<br />

▪ PE INVESTORS – ONLY QUALIFIED ONES SUCH AS FINANCIAL<br />

INSTITUTIONS, INSURANCE COMPANIES AND PENSION FUNDS<br />

▪ SPECIAL ECONOMIC / POLITICAL RIGHTS TO QUOTAS<br />

▪ FUND REGULATION<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados


PE/VC FUNDS<br />

▪ MANAGERS WITH DUTY TO INFORM: ACCOUNTING STATEMENTS,<br />

PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION / NET EQUITY / ETC ANNUALLY AUDITED BY<br />

INDEPENDENT AUDITING FIRM<br />

▪ GENERAL MEETING – ACCOUNTS / MANAGER DISMISSAL / ISSUANCE<br />

OF NEW QUOTAS / AMENDMENT TO REGULATION<br />

▪ COMMITTEES – INVESTMENT / SUPERVISORY / AUDIT<br />

▪ RESTRICTION TO RELATED PARTIES TRANSACTIONS<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados


PE / VC FUNDS - PORTFOLIO<br />

SHARES<br />

DEBENTURES<br />

WARRANTS<br />

CONVERTIBLE<br />

SECURITIES<br />

PORTFOLIO<br />

OTHER<br />

ADMISSIBLE<br />

ASSETS<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados<br />

DERIVATIVES<br />

(HEDGING)<br />

TRANSACTIONS<br />

RELATED PARTIES<br />

(GMEETING)<br />

5% OF THE FUND<br />

10% OF TK/VK<br />

(GMEETING)<br />

REAL ESTATE<br />

PROPERTIES<br />

INVESTMENTS<br />

ABROAD<br />

INVESTMENT<br />

MANAGER<br />

SHARES<br />

EXTEND<br />

LOANS<br />

GRANT<br />

GUARANTEES


A<strong>BVCA</strong>P / ANBIMA CODE<br />

▪ SELF REGULATION AND BEST PRACTICES CODE<br />

• PURPOSE:<br />

▪ TRANSPARENCY ON MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES<br />

▪ TO CREATE STANDARD PRACTICES AND PROCESSES<br />

▪ EQUITABLE TREATMENT<br />

▪ INCREASE FIDUCIARY DUTIES<br />

• MANDATORY ADHESION:<br />

▪ MANAGERS AFFILIATED TO A<strong>BVCA</strong>P<br />

▪ INVESTMENT MANAGERS OF PE / VC FUNDS<br />

▪ INSTITUTIONS AFFILIATED TO ANBIMA<br />

Informações Confidenciais de Propriedade de Tozz<strong>in</strong>iFreire Advogados


<strong>Brazil</strong>: International Fund<br />

Structures<br />

November 7, 2011<br />

Peter A. Furci<br />

Debevoise & Plimpton LLP<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong> Forum<br />

23539783


<strong>Brazil</strong> Fund Structures<br />

• Funds for <strong>in</strong>ternational <strong>in</strong>vestors are typically<br />

structured as limited partnerships (Delaware or<br />

Cayman Isl<strong>and</strong>s) with <strong>in</strong>vestors as limited partners<br />

<strong>and</strong> sponsor as general partner<br />

• <strong>Brazil</strong>-focused <strong>in</strong>ternational funds utilize this structure,<br />

but also typically utilize a “FIP” structure to make<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>ian portfolio companies<br />

23539783


FIPs<br />

• Closed-end <strong>in</strong>vestment funds organized to <strong>in</strong>vest <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>ian companies<br />

• Permissible <strong>in</strong>vestments:<br />

– Shares of sociedades anonimas (Target Companies)<br />

– Debentures<br />

• Investment restrictions:<br />

– Derivative transactions (except for hedg<strong>in</strong>g purposes)<br />

23539783<br />

– Investments outside <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

– Real property<br />

• Restrictions on borrow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> pledg<strong>in</strong>g


FIPs: Tax Considerations<br />

• IOF of 2% on <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> FIPs (0% on outflows)<br />

– Rate fluctuated <strong>in</strong> 2009-10 from zero to 6%<br />

• FIP is not taxed on dividends from portfolio companies or<br />

capital ga<strong>in</strong>s on sale of shares <strong>in</strong> portfolio companies<br />

• FIP may distribute cash <strong>in</strong> respect of dividends received to<br />

quotaholders without withhold<strong>in</strong>g tax<br />

• Sale proceeds distributed by the FIP to a quotaholder are<br />

exempt from tax if<br />

– Quotaholder (<strong>in</strong>dividually or with related parties) owns<br />

less than 40% of the FIP quotas/economic <strong>in</strong>terests<br />

– FIP does not own debt exceed<strong>in</strong>g 5% of net equity<br />

(except convertible debentures, warrants <strong>and</strong><br />

government bonds)<br />

– Quotaholder not domiciled <strong>in</strong> a tax haven jurisdiction<br />

23539783


FIP/Offshore Fund Structure<br />

Non-FIP<br />

Investments<br />

(Public <strong>and</strong> non-<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>ian Portfolio<br />

Companies)<br />

23539783<br />

Fund A<br />

(Cayman LP)<br />

GP of GP<br />

(LLC)<br />

General Partner<br />

(LP)<br />

Fund B<br />

(Cayman LP)<br />

Fund C<br />

(Cayman LP)<br />

Delaware LLC A Delaware LLC B<br />

Delaware LLC C<br />

FIP 1 FIP 2 FIP 3<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>ian<br />

Portfolio Company<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>ian<br />

Portfolio Company<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>ian<br />

Portfolio Company


FIP/Offshore Fund Structure<br />

• Delaware LLCs not tax haven <strong>in</strong>vestors<br />

• Investor representations about 40% limit<br />

• Multiple parallel funds typically utilized<br />

– Fund documents conta<strong>in</strong> numerous provisions to<br />

ensure compliance with 40% limit<br />

– Default, excuse <strong>and</strong> withdrawals raise potential issues<br />

• Reallocation of <strong>in</strong>vestments for subsequent clos<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

– Sales of FIP shares between LLCs triggers IOF<br />

– Could sell <strong>in</strong>terests <strong>in</strong> LLCs across funds<br />

– Could also be addressed by allocat<strong>in</strong>g commitments<br />

across parallel funds to ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> ownership<br />

percentages<br />

23539783


Currency/Inflation Issues<br />

• Currency movements<br />

– If fund contributions/distributions are measured <strong>in</strong><br />

dollars, but <strong>in</strong>vestments are <strong>in</strong> real-denom<strong>in</strong>ated<br />

assets:<br />

– Carried <strong>in</strong>terest is “supercharged” if the real appreciates<br />

– Possible loss of sponsor <strong>in</strong>centives if the real<br />

depreciates<br />

– Investors sometimes ask for the “waterfall” to be<br />

calculated <strong>in</strong> reais<br />

• IOF tax<br />

– Fund expense vs. <strong>in</strong>vestor expense<br />

• Inflation<br />

– Some funds adjust “hurdle” rate to reflect <strong>in</strong>flation rate<br />

23539783<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>


Thank you<br />

23539783


In partnership with<br />

<strong>Private</strong> <strong>Equity</strong> <strong>and</strong><br />

<strong>Venture</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

In partnership with<br />

In association with Offshore jurisdiction<br />

sponsor<br />

Support<strong>in</strong>g sponsor


International<br />

Series <strong>Brazil</strong><br />

Presentation of<br />

Research<br />

What are European LPs look<strong>in</strong>g<br />

for when choos<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>in</strong>vest<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>Brazil</strong>, what are the ma<strong>in</strong><br />

drivers <strong>and</strong> what are the<br />

deterrents?<br />

Tim Hames<br />

Head of Public Affairs, Communications <strong>and</strong> Campaigns, <strong>BVCA</strong><br />

In partnership with


LPs’ views of the <strong>Brazil</strong>ian<br />

PE/VC market<br />

64


50<br />

45<br />

40<br />

35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

Percentage of<br />

respondents<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Average PE/VC allocations<br />

0-49mn 50-249mn 250-999mn 1-4.9bn 5bn +<br />

65


90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Market allocations #1<br />

Average allocation among<br />

respondents (%)<br />

Emerg<strong>in</strong>g markets Developed markets<br />

66


14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Market allocations #2<br />

Average allocation among respondents (%)<br />

Lat<strong>in</strong> America Asia Middle East Africa CEE<br />

67


70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>ian PE/VC knowledge<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

No real expertise Some broad<br />

knowledge<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Detailed experience<br />

<strong>and</strong> past expertise<br />

Currently active <strong>and</strong><br />

well <strong>in</strong>formed<br />

68


90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

<strong>Brazil</strong>ian PE/VC perceptions<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Worse than other<br />

emerg<strong>in</strong>g PE/VC<br />

markets<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Not substantially<br />

different from other<br />

emerg<strong>in</strong>g PE/VC<br />

markets<br />

Some <strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong><br />

unique characteristics<br />

Excit<strong>in</strong>g & unmatched<br />

opportunities<br />

69


70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

PE exposure to<br />

high-growth<br />

markets<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Reasons to <strong>in</strong>vest<br />

Improv<strong>in</strong>g skills &<br />

experience of GPs<br />

Better risk-return<br />

on offer<br />

Not at all important<br />

Somewhat important<br />

Very important<br />

Portfolio<br />

diversification<br />

Political &<br />

economic stability<br />

70


80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Limited<br />

number of GPs<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Reasons not to <strong>in</strong>vest<br />

Scale of<br />

opportunity<br />

Entry<br />

valuations are<br />

too high<br />

Weak exit<br />

environment<br />

Not at all important<br />

Somewhat important<br />

Very important<br />

Challeng<strong>in</strong>g<br />

regulatory/tax<br />

issues<br />

Political risk<br />

71


35<br />

30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

Plans for EM/GP relationships #1<br />

Percentage of<br />

respondents<br />

Not consider<br />

new or exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Only renew<br />

with exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong><br />

consider new<br />

Mostly new,<br />

consider<br />

exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Only new Consider with<br />

advisors<br />

72


90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Plans for EM/GP relationships #2<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Increase number of GPs Ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> number of GPs Decrease number of GPs<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

73


30<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Allocations: 2012 vs 2011<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

First-time Considerably<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong><br />

2012<br />

higher<br />

Slightly<br />

higher<br />

Same<br />

ammount<br />

Slightly less Considerably<br />

less<br />

Won't <strong>in</strong>vest<br />

<strong>in</strong> 2012<br />

74


60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Expected commitments<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Next 12 months<br />

Next 1-2 years<br />

Next 2-5 years<br />

More than 5 years<br />

Zero Up to $24mn $25mn-49mn $50mn-99mn $100mn+<br />

75


80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Expected returns<br />

V<strong>in</strong>tages up to 2010<br />

2011 v<strong>in</strong>tages onwards<br />

< 1x 1x - 1.5x 1.6x - 2x 2.1x - 3x > 3x<br />

76


70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

First-time funds (FTFs) #1<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Currently <strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />

FTF<br />

Consider<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>in</strong> FTF<br />

Invest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> sp<strong>in</strong>-offs Will not pick FTFs<br />

77


60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

First-time funds (FTFs) #2<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Would <strong>in</strong>vest <strong>in</strong> FTF before<br />

<strong>in</strong>itial close<br />

Only <strong>in</strong>vest <strong>in</strong> FTF after <strong>in</strong>itial<br />

close<br />

Would not <strong>in</strong>vest <strong>in</strong> FTF<br />

78


80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Value of local structures<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Local <strong>in</strong>vestor participation on<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment committees<br />

Investments <strong>in</strong> local structures<br />

eg FIPs<br />

Not desirable Irrelevant Desirable<br />

79


80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Preferred fund types<br />

Generalist Small to mid-market buyout <strong>Venture</strong> Depends on advice<br />

80


90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Sport<strong>in</strong>g/pre-salt <strong>in</strong>fluence?<br />

Percentage of respondents<br />

Source: A<strong>BVCA</strong>P/<strong>BVCA</strong><br />

Irrelevant Slight <strong>in</strong>fluence Considerable <strong>in</strong>fluence<br />

81


Thank you<br />

82


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Investment Director, Greenpark <strong>Capital</strong><br />

Anselm Adams<br />

Director - Senior PE Portfolio Manager, PECA Ltd<br />

Elvire Perr<strong>in</strong><br />

Partner <strong>and</strong> Head of Research, Altius Associates<br />

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Partner, Head of European Investment <strong>and</strong> Member of Global<br />

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