Modeling spatial population scenarios

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0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 Distribution of Population and Potential when varying the β parameter. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % Pop % Pot (2) % Pot (1) % Pot (3)
Next Steps • Parameterization of factors affecting potential calculation and allocation rule using hypothetical study area (allow tuning/calibrating model to data). • Alternative methods for re-classifying cells as urban/rural. • Allow aggregate growth rate (r) to vary within the urban/rural region as a function of density or distance. • Add a third broad population category; “suburban”. Future Plans • Developing a model that can produce plausible alternative spatial population scenarios given assumptions concerning future aggregate demographic change. • Explore the link between spatial population scenarios and urban land cover.
Page 1 and 2: Modeling spatial population scenari
Page 3 and 4: iPETS: Global, regionally disaggreg
Page 5 and 6: IIASA Methodology 1. Cells are clas
Page 7: Test Against Historical Data Using
Page 10 and 11: Historical Test: Findings and Impli
Page 12 and 13: ∆ % Error < -20% -20% to -10% -10
Page 16 and 17: Modifying the IIASA Methodology Two
Page 18 and 19: R Rural Cell U Urban Cell Cell i Ru
Page 20: Results: Assuming constant r = -5%

Modeling spatial population scenarios

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