The Global Cheese Market Report 2000-‐2015 - Moproweb

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Between 2000 and 2007, however, Croatia's economic fortunes began to improve slowly, with moderate but steady GDP growth between 4% and 6% led by a rebound in tourism and credit-‐ driven consumer spending. Inflation over the same period has remained tame and the currency, the kuna, stable. Nevertheless, difficult problems still remain, including a stubbornly high unemployment rate, a growing trade deficit and uneven regional development. The state retains a large role in the economy, as privatization efforts often meet stiff public and political resistance. While macroeconomic stabilization has largely been achieved, structural reforms lag because of deep resistance on the part of the public and lack of strong support from politicians. The EU accession process should accelerate fiscal and structural reform. While long term growth prospects for the economy remain strong, Croatia will face significant pressure as a result of the global financial crisis. Croatia's high foreign debt, anemic export sector, strained state budget, and over-‐reliance on tourism revenue will result in higher risk to economic stability over the medium term. 2. The dairy sector in general The dairy industry is one of the most important parts of Croatian agriculture with 9% of the total agricultural production value. There are more than 20,000 dairy farms in Croatia and they are very small, however the number of dairy farmers has been halved from 2000 to 2007. In the same period the yield per cow has increased from 2,300kg to 3,555kg. The overall milk production in Croatia declined in the last decade but the deliveries to dairies have increased significantly with 75% illustrating the improvements in the dairy sector. Table 2: Key dairy figures 2000-‐2011 Milk production 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 Dairy cattle (1,000) 287 239 212 -‐ -‐ Milk production (1,000 MT) 607 1,073 818 800 850 Deliveries to dairies (1,000 MT) Production of dairy products (1,000 MT) 380 605 675 670 710 Liquid milk 296 325 322 310 300 Fermented products 55 83 104 110 120 Cream -‐ -‐ 27 25 26 Butter 2 4 6 6 8 SMP 3 3 3 4 5 WMP 1 1 1 -‐ -‐ WP -‐ -‐ 5 5 7 Source: IDF, ZMP, PM FOOD & DAIRY CONSULTING The production of dairy products has enlarged due to the growing supply for processing mainly for liquid milk and fermented products. The production of liquid milk accounts for 65% of the milk, fermented products 11%, cheese 6% and other dairy products 18%. 7
3. Cheese production Cheese still plays a minor role in the Croatian dairy industry but the production has improved along with the growing supply of milk to the dairies. From 2000 to 2010 the production increased by nearly 50%. However, the GFC has affected the Croatian economy severely and also the domestic demand for cheese. Table 3: Cheese production in Croatia 2000-‐2015 1,000 MT 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2015 Total 19 26 30 28 29 32 Source: ZMP, IDF, CNIEL, PM FOOD & DAIRY CONSULTING The future prospects are uncertain for several reasons. First, how soon will the economy recover and improve the purchasing power of the Croatian consumers? Secondly, how much will the foreign dairy companies invest in cheese production in Croatia or will they rely on increasing import from other countries where they produce cheese. Finally, what will the impact be if Croatia becomes a member of EU in 2013 and there will be free access to the Croatian dairy market? The prognosis is that the cheese production will increase modestly with 4,000 MT from 2010 to 2015. 4. Export and import Croatia is a net-‐importer of dairy products and this is also the case for cheese. The export is minimal and it is expected to remain stable also until 2015. The export is mainly to the other countries in the former Yugoslavia and the majority of the import comes from Germany. Table 4 Cheese export and import 2005-‐2015 1,000 MT 2005 2009 2010 2011 2015 Export 2 2 1 2 3 Import 9 11 10 12 20 Net-‐import 7 9 9 10 17 Source: IDF, ZMP, PM FOOD & DAIRY CONSULTING The import is increasing and a possible membership of EU will increase the import and the competition for the domestic dairy industry. 5. Major cheese producing companies The milk processing in Croatia is handled by 37 dairy companies. The 5 largest dairies process 80% of the delivered. Most other dairies are craft-‐type and they process up to 10,000 kg milk per day. The existing capacities satisfy the domestic needs for milk processing. 8
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