Haiti: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper; IMF Country Report 08/115 ...

Demography and Poverty
54 The demographic picture can be described as follows: (i) Rapid growth – annual average
demographic growth rose from 1.4 percent between the 1971-1982 surveys to 2.5 percent during
the 1982-2003 period; (ii) rapid urbanization, at the rate of 4.9 per year, with 40 percent of the
current population living in cities compared to 25 percent in 1982; and (iii) a young population.
Only 7.4 percent of the population is over age 60 while a figure of 20 percent of the population in
this group is required to label a population as aging. Persons under age 15 account for 36.5
percent of the population, while 58.4 percent of the population is between the ages of 15 and 64.
While such a structure should offer potential for future growth of the economy, in the present
context it constitutes a powder keg, given that demographic growth is most rapid among the
poorest, which creates a situation of entrapment in terms of population growth and increased
poverty, since demographic growth fuels greater poverty.
55 At the present rate, the population should double in approximately 30 years. The preliminary
results of the EMMUS IV point to a decline in the average number of children per woman,
although this number still remains high. The synthetic fertility index is projected to be four
children per woman. The decline is too slow to contain rapid demographic growth. Furthermore,
female fertility is high among the 15 to 19 age group (69 percent), and peaks at 180 per thousand
in the 30 to 34 age group. The birth rate of 28 live births per 1,000 inhabitants is higher in rural
areas (30 percent) and among low-income groups. Changing demographic patterns therefore
pose a major challenge which entails fostering social development by providing opportunities to
the poorest and young people.
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