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Evaluation of Planning Options to Alleviate Traffic Congestion and ...

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35<br />

Another area <strong>of</strong> interest <strong>of</strong> the researchers is the assessment <strong>of</strong> requirement, - utility <strong>and</strong><br />

performance <strong>of</strong> investment in road transport.<br />

2.4 <strong>Traffic</strong> Modeling<br />

2.4.1 Overview<br />

All <strong>of</strong> the road users are aware that traffic conditions vary widely over the road system.<br />

The situations in most <strong>of</strong> the cases may be unsatisfac<strong>to</strong>ry. Though all are concerned about<br />

the situation, their recommendations for its improvement vary from person <strong>to</strong> person.<br />

<strong>Traffic</strong> modeling represents one method <strong>of</strong> resolving some <strong>of</strong> these conflicts. It is directed<br />

<strong>to</strong>wards the gain <strong>of</strong> an underst<strong>and</strong>ing, how the traffic system operates. Models are,<br />

however, developed for many purposes such as traffic flow-volume relationship study,<br />

traffic management, traffic plans, road-use planning etc. <strong>Traffic</strong> system models also vary<br />

from the most detailed (micro-) level <strong>to</strong> the regional (macro-) level.<br />

To prevent the use <strong>of</strong> inappropriate models, the creation <strong>of</strong> models should be embedded<br />

within the context <strong>of</strong> a hierarchy framework <strong>and</strong> a defined development process. The<br />

defined process, during development, includes setting <strong>of</strong> criteria, objective <strong>and</strong> problem<br />

definition, system analysis, parameter estimation, validation <strong>and</strong> data collection. The final<br />

step in model building is application.<br />

One <strong>of</strong> the most difficult parts <strong>of</strong> model building is parameter identification. Morlok<br />

(1978) argued that the most popular approach was <strong>to</strong> use some form <strong>of</strong> deterministic<br />

'fitting' process so that model parameters could be adjusted <strong>to</strong> provide best fit <strong>to</strong> the<br />

corresponding real world observations. A least square sense worked behind this<br />

argument.<br />

There always exist some constraints on model application. The level <strong>of</strong> considerations for<br />

variables chosen is important. The higher level models are concerned with the problems<br />

<strong>of</strong> modes, destinations, general route choice <strong>and</strong> overall travel <strong>and</strong> congestion<br />

characteristics. The lower level models are concerned with number <strong>and</strong> types <strong>of</strong> lanes,<br />

traffic signaling, geometric design <strong>of</strong> road <strong>and</strong> fleet composition etc.

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