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Barillas, Francisco, Lars Peter Hansen, and Thomas J. Sargent, 2009, “Doubts or Variability?” forthcoming in the Journal of Economic Theory. Barro, Robert J., 2009, “Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs,” American Economic Review, Volume 99, Number 1, pp. 243-264. Beveridge, S. and Nelson, C.R., 1981, “A New Approach to Decomposition of Economic Time Series into a Permanent and Transitory Components with Particular Attention to Measurement of the ‘Business Cycle’,”Journal of Monetary Economics, 7, 151-174. Campbell, J. 1987, “Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis,”Econometrica, vol. 55(6), pp. 1249-73. Campbell, John Y. and Deaton, Angus 1989, “Why is Consumption So Smooth?”The Review of Economic Studies 56:357-374. Clarida, Richard, Jordi Galí, and Mark Gertler, 1999, “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective,”Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, pp. 1661–1707. Cochrane, J.H., 1994, “Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices,”Quarterly Journal of Economics, 30, 241-265. De Santis, Massimiliano, 2009, “Individual Consumption Risk and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles,”American Economic Review, 97(4), pp. 1488-1506. Dolmas, J., 1998, “Risk Preferences and the Welfare Cost of Business Cycles”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 1, 646-676. Duarte, A.M., Issler, J.V., and Salvato, M., 2004, “Are Business Cycles all Alike in Europe?,” Mimeo., 2005, downloadable from http://www.anpec.org.br/encontro2005/artigos/A05A031.pdf Engle, R.F. and Granger C.W.J., 1987, “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-276. Flavin, M.A.(1981), “The adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectation about Future Income”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 89(5), pp. 974-1009. Galí, J. (1999), “Technology, Employment and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?”American Economic Review, vol. 89(1), pp. 249-271. Granger, C.W.J., and P. Newbold, 1986, “Forecasting Economic Time Series,”2nd. ed. Orlando: Academic Press. 28
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Page 1 and 2: Ensaios Econômicos Escola de Pós-
Page 3 and 4: On the Welfare Costs of Business-Cy
Page 5 and 6: for macroeconomic policy to try to
Page 7 and 8: 2. The Problem In this section we d
Page 9 and 10: around zero, i.e., around observed
Page 11 and 12: one dimension vanishes, e.g., as 1
Page 13 and 14: i.e., we can think of P as the wel
Page 15 and 16: Finally, we give some intuition beh
Page 17 and 18: 3. Identi…cation and Estimation o
Page 19 and 20: [1; 0] 12 Apart from an irrelevant
Page 21 and 22: data for consumption of perishables
Page 23 and 24: Table 4.1: Estimated Parameters in
Page 25 and 26: Table 4.3: Welfare Cost of Economic
Page 27 and 28: All in all, the contrast between ou
Page 29: of economic-growth variation. This
Page 33 and 34: Stock, J. and Watson, M., 1988, “
Page 35 and 36: 10.5 10.0 9.5 .08 .04 .00 9.0 8.5 8

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