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10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 .10 .05 .00 8.5 8.0 .05 .10 .15 .20 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10 Figure 3: Consumption per-capita (log) and Unobserved-Component Trends and Cycles, 1901-2012, 1901-1941, and 1947-2012 34
Page 1 and 2: Ensaios Econômicos Escola de Pós-
Page 3 and 4: On the Welfare Costs of Business-Cy
Page 5 and 6: for macroeconomic policy to try to
Page 7 and 8: 2. The Problem In this section we d
Page 9 and 10: around zero, i.e., around observed
Page 11 and 12: one dimension vanishes, e.g., as 1
Page 13 and 14: i.e., we can think of P as the wel
Page 15 and 16: Finally, we give some intuition beh
Page 17 and 18: 3. Identi…cation and Estimation o
Page 19 and 20: [1; 0] 12 Apart from an irrelevant
Page 21 and 22: data for consumption of perishables
Page 23 and 24: Table 4.1: Estimated Parameters in
Page 25 and 26: Table 4.3: Welfare Cost of Economic
Page 27 and 28: All in all, the contrast between ou
Page 29 and 30: of economic-growth variation. This
Page 31 and 32: Hall, R.E., 1978, “Stochastic Imp
Page 33 and 34: Stock, J. and Watson, M., 1988, “
Page 35: 10.5 10.0 9.5 .08 .04 .00 9.0 8.5 8

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